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Showing content with the highest reputation on 19/09/16 in all areas

  1. This weeks syntopic guidance blog from Matt is online now: Synoptic Guidance - The Week Ahead - 19th September
    14 points
  2. Whilst it's a bit quiet in the thread i thought for Winter lovers it is of some interest to view the latest GFS Op.run NH view to see the first signs of the building Arctic cold modeled over N.Siberia as we progress through to month end. 2 images at the 850hPa level- first at T24hrs and then at T240hrs showing the gradual spread south of sub-zero temperatures over there. this area, apart from Greenland, is usually the area to see the first lying snow of the approaching Winter. A look at the temperatures expected at the surface over the next 2 weeks so in a few days the region will go below zero-day and night as the cold settles in. Early days and just for fun really but we can see already the effects of the sun going below the horizon in the high Arctic as the upper air cools rapidly and the Polar Vortex starts to expand as we go pass the equinox.
    14 points
  3. There may have been a few more spotless days but I wouldn't agree about the much weaker part where geomagnetic activity is concerned. In that respect, activity was stronger last year than in the year of maximum. It takes a while to wind down. 2014 2016 to date. Compare the Bartels music diagram for 2009 - that's a signature we want to get to for further testing the theory of cold winters at solar minimum. Sources. http://wdc.kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jp/kp/index.html http://www.gfz-potsdam.de/en/kp-index/
    5 points
  4. The GEM ends with a significant dartboard depression blasting through the UK: This is the result of a tropical storm forming on Friday hundreds of miles off the eastern seaboard, before it hitches a lift on the jet and arrives in the British Isles. The UKMO also has this feature and looks like it might carry on to a similar outcome: The ECM makes less of it: ...and the GFS doesn't have it at all: GEFS don't seem interested either, but something to keep an eye on maybe.
    4 points
  5. Hey folks. Moving to Newcastle today, so time to update my location and start posting here. Looking forward to a winter with much greater snow potential than I've been used to in southern Ireland!
    4 points
  6. The sun, for me, will always be viewed as THE driver of global temperatures (from a holistic viewpoint). Tell me, what would happen if the sun was to suddenly disappear?? No amount of CO2 in the atmosphere would come to our rescue in that instance; we'd freeze solid within seconds. It's why I find it embarrassing that some people seem to hold its effects in such little regard. As of 2009 the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere was about 387 ppm, to put this into context, during the paleozoic era, it's estimated the concentration was about 4400 ppm. Yet there is evidence to suggest that there was still glaciation at this time. IMO it's much more plausible that the radiation output of the sun is not constant (as is assumed) and what we're seeing is a response to fluctuations in its output. The sun is in its late mature stage and will only increase its output over the next millions of years. Even minute fluctuations will result in temperature swings on earth. Given we have fairly rudimentary knowledge of the intricate workings of the sun, I cannot see how it is wise to discount it as a major driver whatsoever- and I'm not just talking about sun spots here. Regardless of any 'seemingly obvious correlations' it could be completely coincidental that we've seen warming since the onset of industrialisation. That's a fact that cannot be disproved. As someone said above, it's going to be a very interesting few years ahead. So much to keep tabs on; solar cycles, Arctic ice extent, Global temperatures, NW European climate etc etc.
    4 points
  7. October C.E.T. averages and extremes 20.2 ... warmest day, 1st 1985 20.1 ... second warmest day, 1st 2011 13.3 ... warmest month 2001 13.1 ... second warmest month 2005 13.0 ... third warmest months, 1969 and 2006 12.7 ... 8th warmest, warmest of 19th century 1831 12.5 ... 2013 and 2014 CET 12.3 ... tied 13th and warnest of 18th century 1731 11.3 ... mean 2001-2015 11.0 ... 2015 CET 10.9 ... mean 1986-2015 10.7 ... mean 1981-2010 10.6 ... mean 1961-1990 10.4 ... mean 1971-2000 10.2 ... mean 1901-2000 9.7 .... mean for all years 1659-2015, also 2012 CET 9.5 .... mean 1801-1900 9.4 .... mean 1701-1800 9.3 .... mean 1659-1700 7.8 .... tied 26th coldest, coldest recent past, 1974 and 1992 7.5 .... tied 8th coldest, coldest 20th century 1905 6.5 .... tied 3rd coldest, 1683 and 1692 6.4 .... second coldest 1817 5.3 .... coldest 1740 0.3 .... coldest day (since 1772, guessing some subzero days in 1740) 29th, 1895 ___________________________________________________________________________ Enter your October forecast in this thread before end of Friday 30th September without penalty, or during the first three days of October with increasing late penalties applied. Good luck.
    3 points
  8. More certain about what exactly?
    3 points
  9. Morning output is still continuing along the same theme today - GFS is keen for an Azores high reload and a bit more warmth by day 9/10. Fairly benign really, better in the SE.
    3 points
  10. http://www.disswebsites.com/article/take-a-look-back-at-diss-in-1947--ice-skating-is-how-they-rolled-back-then.html My hometown of Diss, before my time. I was lucky enough to step into the Mere when it was slightly frozen one winter, but am very envious of people who got to skate on it years ago :-)
    3 points
  11. The CFS model has been showing December blocking for a while now and is backed up by the Glosea. I have found if the seasonal models converge on a +NAO then it's nearly always nailed on. It is encouraging we have some consensus towards a HLB in the seasonal modelling thus far.
    3 points
  12. The Geomagnetic Blitz of September 1941 https://eos.org/features/the-geomagnetic-blitz-of-september-1941 Seventy-five years ago, on 18–19 September 1941, the Earth experienced a great magnetic storm, one of the most intense ever recorded. It arrived at a poignant moment in history, when radio and electrical technology was emerging as a central part of daily life and when much of the world was embroiled in World War II, which the United States had not yet officially entered. The illuminated night sky exposed an Allied convoy to German attack. Auroras danced across the night sky as voltage surged in power grid lines. A radio blackout interrupted fan enjoyment of a baseball game, while another radio program was interrupted by private phone conversations. Citizens, already on edge, wondered if neon lights were some sort of antiaircraft signal. And far away in the North Atlantic, the illuminated night sky exposed an Allied convoy to German attack. These effects raised awareness within the scientific community and among the public of the societal significance of the effects that the Sun and outer space can have on the Earth—what we now call space weather.
    2 points
  13. Agree with some on here, it's still t-shirt and shorts weather for me here in Birmingham. If you're out and about 16C isn't cold at all.
    2 points
  14. and this year it's been extended from just WIND, to wind, rain/flooding and snow!
    2 points
  15. A distant pic of Pink-footed geese at Montrose this morning - the numbers are beginning to build.
    2 points
  16. 2 points
  17. Ahhh I love this thread soooo much! Makes the run to winter so much more exciting!
    2 points
  18. ECM also follows the GFS suit in bringing some very warm air across the UK again by the end of the run (850s up around 15c again!) though less settled as the ridge doesn't build in as much. I guess much will depend on how the TD interacts once more, but either way I don't think it will be desperately unsettled. GEM looks well wide of the mark to me, as amazing as that low looks!
    2 points
  19. Found this interesting from the CFS for December. The first chart was December 2015 forecasted September 2015 and is pretty accurate with high pressure to the south pumping up warm air. Now the second chart is for December 2016 and notice all the Northern blocking in red. A complete reverse forecast for this year
    2 points
  20. There are a couple of QBO charts that should without much examination explain the predicament...
    2 points
  21. In a similar vein, take CO2 out of the atmosphere and the Earth becomes a giant ball of ice too. This is part of the faint young sun paradox. High CO2 levels, much less output from the sun = a cooler climate. Similarly, in hundreds of millions of year, much less CO2 will be needed to keep the Earth ice free. Greenhouse gasses have done a remarkable job of keeping the Earth in a stable enough temperature range to keep life going for hundreds of millions of years, despite the long term increase in solar output and other climate cataclysms. I don't think anyone discounts the effect of the sun, no more than the tilt of the Earth or the role of ocean currents. However, the influences are relative, related and measurable. We know the importance of the Milankovitch cycles in conjunction with GhGs in driving much of the recent glacial cycles and it would be unwise to discount the strong correlation between recent grand minima and changes in the north Atlantic weather patterns. However, warming since the industrial revolution is largely explained by CO2 (especially after mid 20th century, as explained not so long ago, using a large variety of empirical lines of evidence (as well as correlations and climate models). As far as can be scientifically certain, it is definitely not simply a correlation.
    2 points
  22. I don't think it's fake. Their as been a lot of speculation regarding the sun and the temps we experience this solar max as been very low so the minimum could be extremely low. Whether that will be enough to create very low temps remains to be seen. Some papers also say that the current rate in which the earth is warming may offset any potential cool down. Interesting period coming up. Add to that the low ice in the artic which may cool the waters due to ice melting which in turn may slow the Atlantic conveyor belt there is a lot to keep our eyes on over the next few years
    2 points
  23. I did a quick take on your location as thought it was minus 18oC for a second lol
    1 point
  24. Angus will strike at the end of October!
    1 point
  25. Chart for the 240 ECM for those interested:
    1 point
  26. There were charts like that for Gaston and it just fizzled out, maybe Karl will do same.
    1 point
  27. He'll see a lot more falling snow especially if we get the intense North Sea showers/Lake Effect thing going on, but near the coast it seldom lies for long. The main speciality in the NE is chilly mist, low cloud and drizzle while *everyone else* has sun! Like today ...
    1 point
  28. Don't get too hopeful of snow here we've hardly had any for the past 2 winters Welcome to the region and the toon
    1 point
  29. A few more dots in Eastern Siberia, also Lapland/Northern Norway appears to have had a winter visit
    1 point
  30. If you do decide to take Vitamin D3 it's a good idea to take a seperate Vitamin K2 supplement along side them - Apparently it helps the Vitamin D3 go into the bones better and stops the body from producing too much calcium which in itself can be problem if it gets into the soft tissue like the heart, arteries......not good. Lots of interesting reading about the D3/K2 combination online. Once you take the K2 you can up the dose of D3 to a high level (5,000 - 10,000 IU every day) ....the sort of level that you make naturally in the Summer months and you won't have to worry about "calcification"
    1 point
  31. The fundamentals that will drive the prevailing weather this coming season are shaping up to be quite interesting. In July I provided a hint at an Autumn that starts fine in the Midlands and South but that would be chilly and unsettled in Scotland with wet and windy conditions affecting most of Britain from mid-October onwards. Recent developments on a macro-regional scale point to a more settled and drier season with near-average temperatures, particularly for much of England and Wales. During the last month mean sea-surface temperatures in the North East Atlantic to the west of Britain have recovered and the patch of anomalously chilly water has largely warmed out. Sea surface temperatures off the US and Canadian East Coasts are some 3 to 5C warmer than normal for early August and the same is true of waters in the Greenland and Norwegian Seas. Arctic sea-ice extent remains at exceptionally low levels for the season with southernmost extent running from East Greenland near 75N to north of Spitzbergen and thence to the northernmost tip of Siberia. This would encourage sub-arctic depressions to move eastwards in rather more northerly latitudes than usual and to be more intense than normal due to the effect of a stronger baroclinic temperature gradient in high latitudes and the fact that deeper depressions would be needed to support the stronger Westerlies needed to counter-balance tropical easterlies to satisfy angular momentum budgets when such Westerlies blow even closer to the axis of the Earth's rotation. This would certainly imply a relatively stormy late-autumn period for Scotland. However there are other caveats thrown up by recent developments in low latitudes. Sea surface temperatures are now well below normal off West Africa and there is a tongue of cooler than normal water across the North Pacific around 25 to 30N. The North Pacific north of 40N is some 3 to 4C warmer than normal for early August. More significantly much of the Equatorial Atlantic and Pacific is currently up to 2C cooler than normal. The La Nina phase of the ENSO Cycle has commenced in earnest. The cool tropical waters have resulted (to date) in a very quiet hurricane season in the Atlantic, there has been just one proper hurricane this summer. In the tropical Pacific it has also been an unusually quiet typhoon season with just TWO typhoons so far this summer. This means that the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is rather less convective than usual across extensive longitudes and thus the Hadley Circulation between the subtropical high pressure belt in the Northern Hemisphere and the ITCZ will be weaker than usual across extensive longitudes. This means weaker tropical easterlies and these need weaker (and less extensive) Westerlies in higher latitudes to counter-balance them so as to satisfy Conservation of Angular Momentum laws. This gives a lot more scope for high-pressure systems to persist well into middle latitudes until later in the Autumn. Continued)
    1 point
  32. Not according to the stats. 62/63 is regarded to the most severe of the 20th Century with '47 a very close second. I wasn't around in '47 but the very cold spell in 62/63 was very long with a penetrating frost severe enough to freeze water mains buried 6ft deep. Around Merseyside we had snow flurries during December with heavy snow over the Christmas holiday that persisted all the way though Jan and Feb. It was at the end of Feb that we had our first 50F accompanied with a thaw (we used old money back then). Oops, we've gone a bit off-thread. Sorry.
    1 point
  33. We tried all-year-round summer time from 1968-71. The reason the experiment was abandoned was because it was an unmitigated disaster. However you muck about with the clock, you still only have about eight hours of daylight around the winter solstice. I clearly recollect riding a bike to work in the dark mornings with black ice still on the roads because the sun didn't rise until after 9am. Schoolkids being knocked down on the way to school on dark mornings by drivers who hadn't wakened fully. I don't mind moving the start of summer time to 1st March, but most definitely not all year.
    1 point
  34. Today in the Sunday express online they managed to print a story about " the worst winter in 60 years " without noticing it was a rehash of a 2013 story, the complete give away was that it contained a long range forecast from 2013, and the http link contained a reference to 2013, wow a forecast accurate 3 yrs in advance , what kind of super computer does the express have. Mind you in 2015 it was going to be the worse winter in 50 years on 10th Jan this year they predicted the coldest winter for 58 years ( very specific ) " an Arctic Snowbomb" But on 18th Feb they had backed down and predicted "ARCTIC gales, snow and freezing rain is sweeping Britain today with the entire country facing the worst winter blast for at least a year." Not the worst winter blast for at least a year , what since the last winter , how odd. They got that one right at least. Anyway I will predict now, that this winter will be the harshest winter since last winter, and next summer will be the hottest since last summer. Maybe they will give me a job. Obviously making up stories about the weather is useful when covering up more painful truths. BTW I don't read the express , I was looking for news on my home town on a woman who had a fight in McD's
    1 point
  35. No real change so far for the coming week from the 12z runs. The UK again showing in a south westerly flow between low pressure towards the north west and the Azores high ridging across towards southern areas. A few charts to illustrate Day 3 from the UKMO and day 5 from the GFS the frontal systems quite active to the nw and weakening somewhat as they come se. A couple of rainfall and pressure images -just snapshots-Tues and Fri as GFS sees things currently Temperatures look close to normal overall,as ever warmest in the se where high teens.possibly 20c could well be reached most days. A pretty normal late September pattern by the looks with quite benign weather for many away from the far north west.
    1 point
  36. September- December to me is the best time of the year Birthdays, wedding anniversary, Halloween, fireworks and the lead up to Christmas at school with the plays and carols. I like the Cosy months when I can snuggle in doors and shut out the nasty weather. cloudy here today, feels mild but there are breaks in the cloud. Still annoyed I missed out last week with the storms, hoping I will get some snow later in Winter. Doubt there will be any second chances now, September changes from 'thunder watch' to 'snow watch' after all.
    1 point
  37. I don't particularly like Autumn as it can be very dominated by wet and windy weather. That said this weekend has got pretty close to dire. Down in south Essex and to be frank there has been 0 minutes of sunshine all weekend. Same goes for my trip to SW London yesterday, just endless grey skies.
    1 point
  38. Have just seen this on my Facebook timeline from back in April I would say the Glosea was pretty accurate at 2-3 months out with general trend of higher pressure S & SE and lower pressure towards the NW
    1 point
  39. Yes, the same cell. It moved into Newbury from Reading.
    1 point
  40. The 'blob' that is really impressive currently is the hot spot in the NE Pacific. It faded a bit last year but is back with a vengence now. Was this not linked with the extremely positive PNA pattern over north America two winters ago? In between the Nina signature in the tropical Pacific and the big Kara/Barents positive anomaly, it is all looking very similar to 2014 at our latitudes. 2014 2016 Atlantic sub-surface will still be cold so I expect the cold blob to extend if the autumn sees big depressions in the central north Atlantic. http://weather.gc.ca/saisons/sea-snow_e.html
    1 point
  41. It was all over the news on the 16th September, the storms that occurred from the evening of the 15th right through to the end of the 16th. There was lots of flooding, lightning and I myself witnessed how intense the rainfall was. I was also impressed with how intense some of the lightning was, with very loud thunder. One place that was mentioned was Newbury in Berkshire where flooding rains hit. http://www.itv.com/news/2016-09-16/thunder-storms-and-flash-flooding-cause-traffic-chaos/ I intercepted the Newbury storm as it passed over Newbury between about 6pm and 7pm on the evening of the 15th. This storm had developed over London and very slowly ambled its way westwards. As it pushed further west it lost a lot of its energy, but when it hit Newbury it was producing some torrential rainfall and vivid lightning. Here is a video I took as I core punched the storm. The total video of this storm alone is around half an hour, with a lot of it footage of me approaching the storm and then some of me driving out the other side of the core. I have only edited and saved this part so far as I would say this is the best bit. Unfortunately I was unable to get out and film the storm so missed out on getting the loud thunder on camera. Although you can actually just about hear it from inside the car on the video, and I could clearly hear it whilst I was driving. The storms I saw later on made up for this though as I was treated to many loud crashes of thunder. https://www.newsflare.com/video/86629/weather-nature/torrential-storm-over-newbury
    1 point
  42. @Muffelchen ...here in west Wales we haven't had any thunder this week although we came close on Tuesday - the storms stopped being electrically active just east of us near Swansea. We've had 5 thunder days so far this year which is about average, this compares to the 14 thunder days we had in 2014 which is the most I can remember. So you have had quite a thunder drought in your area even by our standards
    1 point
  43. hope a few storm starved got their fix last night, bit of a no show here , but that was forecast, we got our turn on tues evening , and what a show it was , more so to the east of here in the manchester area, went on chase towards it and was amazed at some of the lightning which was vivid at dusk, to be honest its not been a bad year in this part for thunder , easily 9 or 10 thunder days , some have just been a couple of rumbles , and a one or two have been quite feisty , and the good news is the irish sea to the west of here is quite warm, any unstable cold uppers going into autumn and winter could give some good coastal convection
    1 point
  44. No sign yet of a real push from the Atlantic despite the fresher air now getting in behind the storms and rain. The fax on Monday for example still shows fronts slow moving and weakening across the UK as the Azores high starts to ridge ne towards heights already over Scandinavia. Continental/Azores heights then look like keeping the south east more settled during the coming week with any frontal systems affecting the north west more and weakening as they come south east. We can see the 06z gefs jet stream stamps for a week today showing it's favoured path going north east to the north west of Scotland and the day 10 mean pattern from the GFS Jet stream and 500hPa heights alongside the ECM day 10 mean 500hPa pattern underlines the expected north/south pressure differences,which really is something more late September-like. Still looking quite a decent setup for many with plenty of fine and dry weather away from the far north west although temperatures much closer to normal..Quite a change after the recent meridional jet pattern with the UK often on the warm side of the Atlantic trough/Continental heights which has brought some notable heat through the first half of September.
    1 point
  45. That's why I carry a radio with me at all times when i'm on storm watch. Old school, but I can also get enough information about strikes from it that it is a useful tool.
    1 point
  46. Last night/today morning was epic! Well, I had all of a refreshing one hours sleep. 24hr accumulative map:
    1 point
  47. Much prefer dark at 8am and 4pm to light at 10pm and 4am. So much easier I find to go to bed in the dark and wake up when you want to and not when the dawn chorus starts at 3:30am!
    1 point
  48. Continued) Two other smaller developments are relevant to this coming season. Firstly the winds high up in the Equatorial Stratosphere have turned easterly. These will impact the Circumpolar Vortex within the next month resulting in a weakening of the Circumpolar Westerlies. The Sun is also past it's active phase of the current Sunspot Cycle and it is becoming quiet. So the Sun will not be sending powerful solar flares to the Earth to impact with the magnetic field to strengthen the Westerlies this Autumn. A final point has to do with the Moon which reaches an unusually close perigee very close to the occurrence of Full Moon in September, October and November. It means strong tides in the oceans but it also means stronger "tides" in the atmosphere and a bit more of the albeit slight slowing down of that which rotates faster and is a bit closer still to large Full Moons - the subtropical and polar-front jet-streams. That ends up weakening the Westerlies a tiny bit more at times near Full Moon. For Britain and much of NW Europe the pattern of sea-surface temperature across the North Atlantic will encourage a more accentuated trough off eastern Canada whilst the northerly extent of baroclinic temperature gradients will encourage depressions formed in this trough to travel on a more northerly track than usual. The facts of La Nina, QBO Easterlies, less hurricanes, a quiet Sun and big Full Moons means that these depressions (and the Westerlies on their southern flanks) will not be especially intense. Meanwhile the relatively cooler waters under the southern wave-train of the Circumpolar Vortex to the west of Britain combined with continental cooling of mainland Europe means anticyclonic curvature will be imparted to the upper Westerlies over the UK. This suggests that there will infact be a good deal of fine dry weather this coming Autumn. I will now provide some more detail of how the Autumn is likely to unfold: Continued)
    1 point
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