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Showing content with the highest reputation on 02/09/16 in all areas

  1. A return to warm and quite dry conditions still look likely after the week end with the model runs showing a warm southerly drift setting up- courtesy of the high establishing to the east and the Atlantic trough held pretty much out west.The first image is a snapshot around the middle of the week coming. Weds The general 500hPa pattern indicates we will be developing a standoff situation with the Atlantic failing to make much if any inroads into the UK over the next couple of weeks.Just looking at next week we can see low pressure being diverted south and north around the block but currently with little indication of the Atlantic breaking through. The GEFs anomalies for next week end show those +ve heights just to the east continuing with the later image at T300hrs. . Courtesy of http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ The mid week period in particular is looking very warm for many as per the latest GEFs temperature anomaly chart This is 3 day period 6-8th Sept.-+ve values up to 5c so a quiet start to Autumn is on the cards with some very pleasant weather around on many days.
    10 points
  2. Well the ECM looks decent for most of next week. Throughout these three days the 850s are predicted to be around 12-16C for most areas. 30C would not be out of the question as we see a stronger south easterly flow which allows the warmest air across the continent to drift into the southern half of the UK, mid to high twenties for Tuesday and Wednesday. The GFS seems to mix the 850s out a lot more for Tuesday and Wednesday but agrees on that push of warmth on Thursday, It does looks like fronts will try to push east from Friday onwards but there is real doubt in how far east they can get and how much rain would be on them. The GFS ensembles suggest that the ridge to our east could hold on or even push back westwards a tad during week 2. The ECM at day 9 seems to suggest a similar thing with another ridge pushing north east from the Azores.
    8 points
  3. Maybe not that far east with high pressure always close by
    7 points
  4. Hello high pressure. All I can say is this is really what it's all about. Low pressure swinging towards Greenland, high pressure building over the Uk Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday from the ECM. Long may it last! For weeks hopefully
    6 points
  5. Hmmm, I'm not keen on big NE blocks this time of the year, they always seem to go pop on December 1st... Next Thursday could be hot on many charts if the Atlantic front doesn't progress too fast - good SSE draw, 16C uppers. Mind you with a mini-trough up against a high to the east, the final solution may not have been reached yet. Beyond that, chances are we'll do it all over again in week 2!
    5 points
  6. Certainly would appear a move from the ops back to the pattern of the last six weeks - a decent Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, then Thursday increasingly iffy, Friday the lull before unsettled weather returns for the weekend! Strange how the weather has moved with the weeks recently! Would appear to be good agreement - for once! It may, of course, be another instance of the ops being over progressive with the Atlantic incursion, since the ensembles generally stall the Atlantic trough for longer - leaving us pretty warm (though no route for the severe heat in Spain/Portugal to get to us except on one or two ensembles, that one is nearly off the table now). so talk of an unsettled end to the week still be a little premature edit latest ECM - still slower to push the heat away, even by next Friday
    5 points
  7. Apart from the ecm which is slightly more progressive with the trough the anomalies are all singing the same song. It's all a bit knife edgy rather depending on the precise position of the trough and where the surface high parks itself but the outlook is looking pretty good with HP having the greater influence. Regarding the EPS as we go into the post ten day period it remains favourable with the trough weakening quite rapidly allowing the Azores HP to nudge north and maybe connect to the high pressure to the east. It has to be said though the NOAA 8-14 doesn't appear to go along with this interpretation.
    4 points
  8. Anyway, a very unusual sunset in Leeds yesterday..
    4 points
  9. Long way off but next weekend could see a battle developing between high pressure to the east and low pressure to the west Temps in the mid to upper 20's for the SE next weekend if that came off
    4 points
  10. Certainly temperatures look to continue above average quite widely next week.The peak +ve anomalies according to the GEFs look to be around days 5-7. up to 4c above average in places-not bad!
    4 points
  11. Very pleasant mid-week for early Autumn
    4 points
  12. So here it is just in time for Autumn - After the summer heat thoughts turn to the change in daylight hours & of course the advancing snow & ice - Here is the one of the first images of the season showing a few bits if snow dotted around - The ice is still looking vulnerable to late season melting .... lets hope that white finger extends westwards this year in time for Christmas.. s
    3 points
  13. Love the way so many have deserted this is forum after the summer months have gone,find it very strange. Its weather,surely in any guise its a talking point or are they just missing banging on about their preferred conditions......pretty sure i'll get shot down on this one but what the heck.
    3 points
  14. A quick update. The Mouse that for the last few weeks has resided under the tumble dryer is in rude health. He's fed and watered twice daily on a high protein diet of peanut granules and cheese, washed down with Scottish spring water. Although it must be said he's not that partial to extra strong cheddar. He's getting quite cheeky with it.
    3 points
  15. Euro this morning restricts the real heat to Tuesday-Wednesday which is positive for those wanting Autumn to get going.
    3 points
  16. Today Cloudy with patchy rain in many areas and windy with heavy showers in NW Scotland Looking at the GFS this morning indicates that next week still isn't nailed down by a long chalk. Wednesday sees the negatively tilted upper trough orientated to the W/SW of the UK. All well and good with the UK in a warm southerly flow with the HP to the east. But subsequently not so good with some increase of amplification and an Omega block in the wrong place with ridging over the Baltic. This allows frontal systems to track east from the Atlantic before HP ridges NE again. But by T240 another TC has emerged from the east coast of the U.S. to engage the 500mb pattern so this is best left.
    3 points
  17. I'm starting to wonder just how resilient that Scandi High could end up being. Could it rule over any attempts by low pressure to move up from Iberia? The model output has be thinking of a stunning spell of weather five years ago, but looking at the charts, it's clear that an Iberian low did not feature. Amazing the extent of heat import we achieved using the anticyclonic circulation alone; Walking along the beach in Christchurch with the air temp in the high 20s yet the sun not very high in the sky... one of my most treasured weather memories. Anyway, enough misty-eyed reminiscing. It does appear that next week we'll have the more common setup in which, for numerous days of sparkling sunshine, we are dependent on the Atlantic jet having nothing to do with the shallow lows developing in the hot air over Spain. GFS has leaped enthusiastically toward this idea on the 12z after an alarmingly progressive 06z, but ECM is less keen - though not as much so as it was this morning. Once the low starts edging nearer, the odds of seeing areas of cloud exported from continental storms increase steadily. Last week here served to remind me of that all too plainly, although it was not a textbook example as the upper-level flow was more toward the SW than S. The significance of next week's potential warmth becomes very apparent when plugging in raw GFS 2m temp. values against the LTA; the month-to-date anomaly could be near +2.5*C for many parts of England by next weekend. That's without adjusting for the locally under-cooked maximums that are typical of the model.
    3 points
  18. A new thread then as we enter the first month of meteorological Autumn. The warm and quite dry weather of the last few days looks like being interrupted as we see low pressure and fronts moving in over the weekend with some rain about for many. As we go into next week though we look like returning to some quite warm and fine conditions as pressure rises across the UK and the continent.We can see this trend starting on Monday -from the 006hrs GFS Looking further ahead out to day 10 on the Ens means,and they look pretty good with High pressure just to our east and the Atlantic trough out west and the wind flow from a warm south/south westerly direction. Areas towards the far north west seeing the most effect any Atlantic incursions with many locations further south looking again at quite low rainfall totals- after the weekend blip. and the London 2m temperature/rainfall ens graphs Let's see if this trend continues as we await the evenings model runs.
    2 points
  19. That is very much a post-watershed image. Phwoar.
    2 points
  20. A white Christmas 2010 Archive..... http://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/gif_archive.html
    2 points
  21. Right out to D10 I can't see much in the way of rain away from the NW once tomorrow's blip clears away with high pressure either over the UK or always close enough to keep lows at bay
    2 points
  22. Saw that on the cricket.
    2 points
  23. 2 points
  24. Interesting to see signs of steadfast blocking to our NE so early in the season. There is a hypothesis that the anomalously low sea ice in Barents/Kara could help with blocking over Scandi, but that might not be relevant until late autumn and early winter. Whatever the case, a standoff could keep us on the warm side for some time to come. The 12z GFS has us strolling through a great number of warm afternoons until some two weeks from now.
    2 points
  25. where's summer thread gone?????? still summer weatherwise after Sunday, very summery GFS even here, sunny and 24-25° Tue to Fri on GFS, then chance of an E-W battle drawing up a southerly
    2 points
  26. Another big drop in the single day NSIDC extent, -110k. This takes us below the minima of 2011 and 2015, securing at least the 3rd lowest minimum on record. We're also just 131k off the 2007 minimum.
    2 points
  27. Minimum today of 13.9C, while maxima look like being close to 20C, so an increase to around 16.2C is likely on tomorrows update. After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at: 16.0C to the 3rd (15.4: +0.1) 16.1C to the 4th (16.4: +1.7) 16.2C to the 5th (16.6: +1.5) 16.7C to the 6th (19.5: +4.4) 17.2C to the 7th (20.1: +5.1) 17.5C to the 8th (19.2: +4.2) 17.8C to the 9th (20.1: +5.4) [Record High: 19.8C] 17.8C to the 10th (18.5: +3.8) 17.9C to the 11th (18.8: +4.0) Certainly looking warm for the first third of the month. So much so that anything lower than 1C below the 81-10 average can probably be ruled out already.
    2 points
  28. System peaked with 71KT (82mph) sustained winds, winds at flight level were around 90KT (103mph). Validated reports that the storm surge reached 10 feet with significant flooding and more than 100,000 people without power. 982mb. Apparently the camera i was watching at Cedar Key before bed took a hit from a floating pier that did not survive which i thought quite amusing. Apparently somebody recorded it so i'll post when the guy does. All in all a pretty pleasing system in the end and one which was strengthening right up to landfall.
    2 points
  29. Whitby had a light show last night some brilliant photos on the net and facebook this morning. https://www.facebook.com/whitby.england/
    2 points
  30. The models really can't get a handle on where and to what extent a closed low develops along the trailing frontal boundary near the Azores early next week. The further north and/or deeper the low, the faster it's likely to make an escape north and - it currently appears - deliver a glancing blow to the UK - (rain restricted mostly to western fringes) which allows the plume to hang on but in diluted form. So we go from very warm to pleasantly warm, or thereabouts.
    2 points
  31. ECM looks broadly similar - though the theme of taking the very high 850s down continues. A quick glance from the 15c line, but mostly 850s just over 10c - which will probably mean 26 or maybe 27c in a favoured spot. Still very, very good for the second week of September.
    2 points
  32. Still looking hunky dory on this evening's GFS It's still running with cut off upper low at the end of the week that facilitates a shallow low pressure feature running NE into the UK which could bring some hot temps to the SE for a short time. After that HP service is resumed and merely a matter of how much will the Atlantic systems impact the north.
    2 points
  33. Very quick by evolutionary standards Tasmanian devil developing resistance to deadly face cancer which may allow them to 'save themselves' http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/2016/08/31/tasmanian-devil-developing-resistance-to-deadly-face-cancer/
    2 points
  34. Flash flooding and everything! What a storm and compensation for missing out on the UK storm!
    2 points
  35. ADS extent now just 103k off the 2007 minimum
    1 point
  36. Kp 6 later, Saw nothing last night but they did in the far North.
    1 point
  37. May is the only month that has yet to record a CET rounded to .0 this century. The last time May did was 1989 with 13.0
    1 point
  38. Made us wait and it's a shame we don't have another 24 hours but the end result has certainly been impressive. Gusts to 95mph on the coast.
    1 point
  39. Beautiful warm, sunny conditions to start autumn looking likely next week. I wonder if the much warmer sst anomalies around Greenland and steeper temperature gradients to the west are encouraging low pressure to move in that direction?
    1 point
  40. Amber alert: possible aurora. Aurora is likely to be visible by eye from Scotland, northern England and Northern Ireland; possibly visible from elsewhere in the UK. Photographs of aurora are likely from anywhere in the UK. Viewing aurora requires clear, dark skies away from light pollution. To monitor current activity see http://aurorawatch.lancs.ac.uk. Issued 2016-09-01 20:09 UTC (21:09 BST) by AuroraWatch UK using SAMNET CRK2 data from Crooktree, UK.
    1 point
  41. Just a shame it has to make landfall
    1 point
  42. Summer rolls on till middle of the Month, splendid! Then a quick cool down and snow by the end of Autumn, see you then.
    1 point
  43. This is about to be Florida's first hurricane landfall since Wilma in October 2005.
    1 point
  44. 1 point
  45. Well both the ECM and GFS are variations on a theme of each other, showing the unsettled interlude over this weekend, Monday being the improvement day, then a few warm/hot sunny days next week with increasing thunder risk before the Atlantic moves in again towards the end of the week. One could say, something for everyone.
    1 point
  46. That's the standard 'I don't want heat therefore I will kid myself into thinking it won't happen' kicking in.
    1 point
  47. 1 point
  48. 1 point
  49. First 9 days of September looks good, more like what you'd expect in late July or early August! Maybe the summer will be redeemed after all, with September being warmer and sunnier than June (not difficult).
    1 point
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