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Showing most liked content on 02/09/16 in all areas

  1. 10 points
    A return to warm and quite dry conditions still look likely after the week end with the model runs showing a warm southerly drift setting up- courtesy of the high establishing to the east and the Atlantic trough held pretty much out west.The first image is a snapshot around the middle of the week coming. Weds The general 500hPa pattern indicates we will be developing a standoff situation with the Atlantic failing to make much if any inroads into the UK over the next couple of weeks.Just looking at next week we can see low pressure being diverted south and north around the block but currently with little indication of the Atlantic breaking through. The GEFs anomalies for next week end show those +ve heights just to the east continuing with the later image at T300hrs. . Courtesy of http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ The mid week period in particular is looking very warm for many as per the latest GEFs temperature anomaly chart This is 3 day period 6-8th Sept.-+ve values up to 5c so a quiet start to Autumn is on the cards with some very pleasant weather around on many days.
  2. 8 points
    Well the ECM looks decent for most of next week. Throughout these three days the 850s are predicted to be around 12-16C for most areas. 30C would not be out of the question as we see a stronger south easterly flow which allows the warmest air across the continent to drift into the southern half of the UK, mid to high twenties for Tuesday and Wednesday. The GFS seems to mix the 850s out a lot more for Tuesday and Wednesday but agrees on that push of warmth on Thursday, It does looks like fronts will try to push east from Friday onwards but there is real doubt in how far east they can get and how much rain would be on them. The GFS ensembles suggest that the ridge to our east could hold on or even push back westwards a tad during week 2. The ECM at day 9 seems to suggest a similar thing with another ridge pushing north east from the Azores.
  3. 7 points
    Maybe not that far east with high pressure always close by
  4. 6 points
    Hello high pressure. All I can say is this is really what it's all about. Low pressure swinging towards Greenland, high pressure building over the Uk Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday from the ECM. Long may it last! For weeks hopefully
  5. 5 points
    Hmmm, I'm not keen on big NE blocks this time of the year, they always seem to go pop on December 1st... Next Thursday could be hot on many charts if the Atlantic front doesn't progress too fast - good SSE draw, 16C uppers. Mind you with a mini-trough up against a high to the east, the final solution may not have been reached yet. Beyond that, chances are we'll do it all over again in week 2!
  6. 5 points
    Certainly would appear a move from the ops back to the pattern of the last six weeks - a decent Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, then Thursday increasingly iffy, Friday the lull before unsettled weather returns for the weekend! Strange how the weather has moved with the weeks recently! Would appear to be good agreement - for once! It may, of course, be another instance of the ops being over progressive with the Atlantic incursion, since the ensembles generally stall the Atlantic trough for longer - leaving us pretty warm (though no route for the severe heat in Spain/Portugal to get to us except on one or two ensembles, that one is nearly off the table now). so talk of an unsettled end to the week still be a little premature edit latest ECM - still slower to push the heat away, even by next Friday
  7. 4 points
    Apart from the ecm which is slightly more progressive with the trough the anomalies are all singing the same song. It's all a bit knife edgy rather depending on the precise position of the trough and where the surface high parks itself but the outlook is looking pretty good with HP having the greater influence. Regarding the EPS as we go into the post ten day period it remains favourable with the trough weakening quite rapidly allowing the Azores HP to nudge north and maybe connect to the high pressure to the east. It has to be said though the NOAA 8-14 doesn't appear to go along with this interpretation.
  8. 4 points
    Anyway, a very unusual sunset in Leeds yesterday..
  9. 4 points
    Long way off but next weekend could see a battle developing between high pressure to the east and low pressure to the west Temps in the mid to upper 20's for the SE next weekend if that came off
  10. 4 points
    Certainly temperatures look to continue above average quite widely next week.The peak +ve anomalies according to the GEFs look to be around days 5-7. up to 4c above average in places-not bad!
  11. 4 points
    Very pleasant mid-week for early Autumn
  12. 3 points
    So here it is just in time for Autumn - After the summer heat thoughts turn to the change in daylight hours & of course the advancing snow & ice - Here is the one of the first images of the season showing a few bits if snow dotted around - The ice is still looking vulnerable to late season melting .... lets hope that white finger extends westwards this year in time for Christmas.. s
  13. 3 points
    Love the way so many have deserted this is forum after the summer months have gone,find it very strange. Its weather,surely in any guise its a talking point or are they just missing banging on about their preferred conditions......pretty sure i'll get shot down on this one but what the heck.
  14. 3 points
    A quick update. The Mouse that for the last few weeks has resided under the tumble dryer is in rude health. He's fed and watered twice daily on a high protein diet of peanut granules and cheese, washed down with Scottish spring water. Although it must be said he's not that partial to extra strong cheddar. He's getting quite cheeky with it.
  15. 3 points
    Euro this morning restricts the real heat to Tuesday-Wednesday which is positive for those wanting Autumn to get going.
  16. 3 points
    Today Cloudy with patchy rain in many areas and windy with heavy showers in NW Scotland Looking at the GFS this morning indicates that next week still isn't nailed down by a long chalk. Wednesday sees the negatively tilted upper trough orientated to the W/SW of the UK. All well and good with the UK in a warm southerly flow with the HP to the east. But subsequently not so good with some increase of amplification and an Omega block in the wrong place with ridging over the Baltic. This allows frontal systems to track east from the Atlantic before HP ridges NE again. But by T240 another TC has emerged from the east coast of the U.S. to engage the 500mb pattern so this is best left.
  17. 3 points
    I'm starting to wonder just how resilient that Scandi High could end up being. Could it rule over any attempts by low pressure to move up from Iberia? The model output has be thinking of a stunning spell of weather five years ago, but looking at the charts, it's clear that an Iberian low did not feature. Amazing the extent of heat import we achieved using the anticyclonic circulation alone; Walking along the beach in Christchurch with the air temp in the high 20s yet the sun not very high in the sky... one of my most treasured weather memories. Anyway, enough misty-eyed reminiscing. It does appear that next week we'll have the more common setup in which, for numerous days of sparkling sunshine, we are dependent on the Atlantic jet having nothing to do with the shallow lows developing in the hot air over Spain. GFS has leaped enthusiastically toward this idea on the 12z after an alarmingly progressive 06z, but ECM is less keen - though not as much so as it was this morning. Once the low starts edging nearer, the odds of seeing areas of cloud exported from continental storms increase steadily. Last week here served to remind me of that all too plainly, although it was not a textbook example as the upper-level flow was more toward the SW than S. The significance of next week's potential warmth becomes very apparent when plugging in raw GFS 2m temp. values against the LTA; the month-to-date anomaly could be near +2.5*C for many parts of England by next weekend. That's without adjusting for the locally under-cooked maximums that are typical of the model.
  18. 2 points
    A new thread then as we enter the first month of meteorological Autumn. The warm and quite dry weather of the last few days looks like being interrupted as we see low pressure and fronts moving in over the weekend with some rain about for many. As we go into next week though we look like returning to some quite warm and fine conditions as pressure rises across the UK and the continent.We can see this trend starting on Monday -from the 006hrs GFS Looking further ahead out to day 10 on the Ens means,and they look pretty good with High pressure just to our east and the Atlantic trough out west and the wind flow from a warm south/south westerly direction. Areas towards the far north west seeing the most effect any Atlantic incursions with many locations further south looking again at quite low rainfall totals- after the weekend blip. and the London 2m temperature/rainfall ens graphs Let's see if this trend continues as we await the evenings model runs.
  19. 2 points
    That is very much a post-watershed image. Phwoar.
  20. 2 points
    A white Christmas 2010 Archive..... http://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/gif_archive.html
  21. 2 points
    Right out to D10 I can't see much in the way of rain away from the NW once tomorrow's blip clears away with high pressure either over the UK or always close enough to keep lows at bay
  22. 2 points
    Saw that on the cricket.
  23. 2 points
  24. 2 points
    Interesting to see signs of steadfast blocking to our NE so early in the season. There is a hypothesis that the anomalously low sea ice in Barents/Kara could help with blocking over Scandi, but that might not be relevant until late autumn and early winter. Whatever the case, a standoff could keep us on the warm side for some time to come. The 12z GFS has us strolling through a great number of warm afternoons until some two weeks from now.
  25. 2 points
    where's summer thread gone?????? still summer weatherwise after Sunday, very summery GFS even here, sunny and 24-25° Tue to Fri on GFS, then chance of an E-W battle drawing up a southerly
  26. 2 points
    Another big drop in the single day NSIDC extent, -110k. This takes us below the minima of 2011 and 2015, securing at least the 3rd lowest minimum on record. We're also just 131k off the 2007 minimum.
  27. 2 points
    Minimum today of 13.9C, while maxima look like being close to 20C, so an increase to around 16.2C is likely on tomorrows update. After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at: 16.0C to the 3rd (15.4: +0.1) 16.1C to the 4th (16.4: +1.7) 16.2C to the 5th (16.6: +1.5) 16.7C to the 6th (19.5: +4.4) 17.2C to the 7th (20.1: +5.1) 17.5C to the 8th (19.2: +4.2) 17.8C to the 9th (20.1: +5.4) [Record High: 19.8C] 17.8C to the 10th (18.5: +3.8) 17.9C to the 11th (18.8: +4.0) Certainly looking warm for the first third of the month. So much so that anything lower than 1C below the 81-10 average can probably be ruled out already.
  28. 2 points
    System peaked with 71KT (82mph) sustained winds, winds at flight level were around 90KT (103mph). Validated reports that the storm surge reached 10 feet with significant flooding and more than 100,000 people without power. 982mb. Apparently the camera i was watching at Cedar Key before bed took a hit from a floating pier that did not survive which i thought quite amusing. Apparently somebody recorded it so i'll post when the guy does. All in all a pretty pleasing system in the end and one which was strengthening right up to landfall.
  29. 2 points
    Whitby had a light show last night some brilliant photos on the net and facebook this morning. https://www.facebook.com/whitby.england/
  30. 2 points
    The models really can't get a handle on where and to what extent a closed low develops along the trailing frontal boundary near the Azores early next week. The further north and/or deeper the low, the faster it's likely to make an escape north and - it currently appears - deliver a glancing blow to the UK - (rain restricted mostly to western fringes) which allows the plume to hang on but in diluted form. So we go from very warm to pleasantly warm, or thereabouts.
  31. 2 points
    ECM looks broadly similar - though the theme of taking the very high 850s down continues. A quick glance from the 15c line, but mostly 850s just over 10c - which will probably mean 26 or maybe 27c in a favoured spot. Still very, very good for the second week of September.
  32. 2 points
  33. 2 points
    Still looking hunky dory on this evening's GFS It's still running with cut off upper low at the end of the week that facilitates a shallow low pressure feature running NE into the UK which could bring some hot temps to the SE for a short time. After that HP service is resumed and merely a matter of how much will the Atlantic systems impact the north.
  34. 2 points
    Very quick by evolutionary standards Tasmanian devil developing resistance to deadly face cancer which may allow them to 'save themselves' http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/2016/08/31/tasmanian-devil-developing-resistance-to-deadly-face-cancer/
  35. 2 points
    Flash flooding and everything! What a storm and compensation for missing out on the UK storm!
  36. 1 point
    Britain's Johanna Konta produced a commanding display to beat Belinda Bencic 6-2 6-1 and secure her place in the US Open fourth round in New York. Konta, showing no sign of the health issues that affected her during the second round, brushed aside the Swiss 24th seed in 52 minutes. Kyle Edmund will seek to join his compatriot in the last 16 later. Edmund, one of three British men in the third round, faces big-serving American John Isner on Louis Armstrong Stadium from 22:30 BST. B.
  37. 1 point
    71KT confirmed is 82mph so yeah, it was a hurricane. Since windspeeds are not distributed in a system equally it's not a shock that a buoy may have missed the strongest winds. Additionally, the technology used by reconnaissance flights is more accurate.
  38. 1 point
  39. 1 point
    Yes it would seem the plume got away this time ... Or has it????? I would say chances of getting 30C plus next week were probably 25% yesterday, and now 10% today - but the chance is still just about there. Though you may have trouble sleeping in Camborne for a couple of nights! 22C for where, by the way?
  40. 1 point
    Calm, sober reporting from the Mail there. The IMO are more circumspect: "Our overall assessment is that the summertime unrest, and the earthquake swarm on 29 August, are not necessarily precursors to an imminent volcanic eruption. Similar unrest has taken place at Katla several times since the 1950s without resulting in an explosive eruption. However, Katla is one of Iceland's most active volcanoes and the interval since the last eruption in 1918 is unusually long in relation to recent centuries." http://en.vedur.is/about-imo/news/katla-and-myrdalsjokull
  41. 1 point
  42. 1 point
    The ecm has a not dissimilar upper pattern on 00z Wednesday with the cut off upper low to the WSW with the UK in the SE circulation of the HP to the east and warm temps over the UK. Subsequently the upper trough tracks east and surface fronts reach the UK by the weekend. It's all becoming a tad mobile.
  43. 1 point
    Kp 6 later, Saw nothing last night but they did in the far North.
  44. 1 point
    Made us wait and it's a shame we don't have another 24 hours but the end result has certainly been impressive. Gusts to 95mph on the coast.
  45. 1 point
    Summer rolls on till middle of the Month, splendid! Then a quick cool down and snow by the end of Autumn, see you then.
  46. 1 point
    Personally I wouldn't big up or play down anything just yet. It looks like the 10C isotherm safely makes it way over the UK, which in any sunny conditions will allow temperatures to rise comfortably to 24-27C at least. If the 15C gets this far north then, again in any shine, 27-32C is still achievable in early September. All to play for in my opinion. You will of course need more of a push to get heat up there but it's certainly not out of the question just yet. 12Z rolling out soon so will be interesting to see what it heralds.
  47. 1 point
    I truly hope not, my worst nightmare, I want hard frosts and sunshine, I know its been said over and over again but there are no seasons anymore they all roll into one and there is nothing exciting about that.
  48. 1 point
  49. 1 point
  50. 1 point
    Almost forgot this one of undulating clouds? the camera did this picture no justice it was a beautiful sight!