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Showing content with the highest reputation on 02/09/16 in all areas

  1. 6 points
    Hello high pressure. All I can say is this is really what it's all about. Low pressure swinging towards Greenland, high pressure building over the Uk Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday from the ECM. Long may it last! For weeks hopefully
  2. 5 points
    Certainly would appear a move from the ops back to the pattern of the last six weeks - a decent Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, then Thursday increasingly iffy, Friday the lull before unsettled weather returns for the weekend! Strange how the weather has moved with the weeks recently! Would appear to be good agreement - for once! It may, of course, be another instance of the ops being over progressive with the Atlantic incursion, since the ensembles generally stall the Atlantic trough for longer - leaving us pretty warm (though no route for the severe heat in Spain/Portugal to get to us except on one or two ensembles, that one is nearly off the table now). so talk of an unsettled end to the week still be a little premature edit latest ECM - still slower to push the heat away, even by next Friday
  3. 4 points
    Certainly temperatures look to continue above average quite widely next week.The peak +ve anomalies according to the GEFs look to be around days 5-7. up to 4c above average in places-not bad!
  4. 4 points
    Very pleasant mid-week for early Autumn
  5. 3 points
    So here it is just in time for Autumn - After the summer heat thoughts turn to the change in daylight hours & of course the advancing snow & ice - Here is the one of the first images of the season showing a few bits if snow dotted around - The ice is still looking vulnerable to late season melting .... lets hope that white finger extends westwards this year in time for Christmas.. s
  6. 3 points
    Today Cloudy with patchy rain in many areas and windy with heavy showers in NW Scotland Looking at the GFS this morning indicates that next week still isn't nailed down by a long chalk. Wednesday sees the negatively tilted upper trough orientated to the W/SW of the UK. All well and good with the UK in a warm southerly flow with the HP to the east. But subsequently not so good with some increase of amplification and an Omega block in the wrong place with ridging over the Baltic. This allows frontal systems to track east from the Atlantic before HP ridges NE again. But by T240 another TC has emerged from the east coast of the U.S. to engage the 500mb pattern so this is best left.
  7. 3 points
    I'm starting to wonder just how resilient that Scandi High could end up being. Could it rule over any attempts by low pressure to move up from Iberia? The model output has be thinking of a stunning spell of weather five years ago, but looking at the charts, it's clear that an Iberian low did not feature. Amazing the extent of heat import we achieved using the anticyclonic circulation alone; Walking along the beach in Christchurch with the air temp in the high 20s yet the sun not very high in the sky... one of my most treasured weather memories. Anyway, enough misty-eyed reminiscing. It does appear that next week we'll have the more common setup in which, for numerous days of sparkling sunshine, we are dependent on the Atlantic jet having nothing to do with the shallow lows developing in the hot air over Spain. GFS has leaped enthusiastically toward this idea on the 12z after an alarmingly progressive 06z, but ECM is less keen - though not as much so as it was this morning. Once the low starts edging nearer, the odds of seeing areas of cloud exported from continental storms increase steadily. Last week here served to remind me of that all too plainly, although it was not a textbook example as the upper-level flow was more toward the SW than S. The significance of next week's potential warmth becomes very apparent when plugging in raw GFS 2m temp. values against the LTA; the month-to-date anomaly could be near +2.5*C for many parts of England by next weekend. That's without adjusting for the locally under-cooked maximums that are typical of the model.
  8. 2 points
    A new thread then as we enter the first month of meteorological Autumn. The warm and quite dry weather of the last few days looks like being interrupted as we see low pressure and fronts moving in over the weekend with some rain about for many. As we go into next week though we look like returning to some quite warm and fine conditions as pressure rises across the UK and the continent.We can see this trend starting on Monday -from the 006hrs GFS Looking further ahead out to day 10 on the Ens means,and they look pretty good with High pressure just to our east and the Atlantic trough out west and the wind flow from a warm south/south westerly direction. Areas towards the far north west seeing the most effect any Atlantic incursions with many locations further south looking again at quite low rainfall totals- after the weekend blip. and the London 2m temperature/rainfall ens graphs Let's see if this trend continues as we await the evenings model runs.
  9. 2 points
    System peaked with 71KT (82mph) sustained winds, winds at flight level were around 90KT (103mph). Validated reports that the storm surge reached 10 feet with significant flooding and more than 100,000 people without power. 982mb. Apparently the camera i was watching at Cedar Key before bed took a hit from a floating pier that did not survive which i thought quite amusing. Apparently somebody recorded it so i'll post when the guy does. All in all a pretty pleasing system in the end and one which was strengthening right up to landfall.
  10. 2 points
    Whitby had a light show last night some brilliant photos on the net and facebook this morning. https://www.facebook.com/whitby.england/
  11. 2 points
    The models really can't get a handle on where and to what extent a closed low develops along the trailing frontal boundary near the Azores early next week. The further north and/or deeper the low, the faster it's likely to make an escape north and - it currently appears - deliver a glancing blow to the UK - (rain restricted mostly to western fringes) which allows the plume to hang on but in diluted form. So we go from very warm to pleasantly warm, or thereabouts.
  12. 2 points
    ECM looks broadly similar - though the theme of taking the very high 850s down continues. A quick glance from the 15c line, but mostly 850s just over 10c - which will probably mean 26 or maybe 27c in a favoured spot. Still very, very good for the second week of September.
  13. 2 points
  14. 2 points
    Still looking hunky dory on this evening's GFS It's still running with cut off upper low at the end of the week that facilitates a shallow low pressure feature running NE into the UK which could bring some hot temps to the SE for a short time. After that HP service is resumed and merely a matter of how much will the Atlantic systems impact the north.
  15. 2 points
    Very quick by evolutionary standards Tasmanian devil developing resistance to deadly face cancer which may allow them to 'save themselves' http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/2016/08/31/tasmanian-devil-developing-resistance-to-deadly-face-cancer/
  16. 2 points
    Flash flooding and everything! What a storm and compensation for missing out on the UK storm!
  17. 1 point
    The ecm has a not dissimilar upper pattern on 00z Wednesday with the cut off upper low to the WSW with the UK in the SE circulation of the HP to the east and warm temps over the UK. Subsequently the upper trough tracks east and surface fronts reach the UK by the weekend. It's all becoming a tad mobile.
  18. 1 point
    Kp 6 later, Saw nothing last night but they did in the far North.
  19. 1 point
    Made us wait and it's a shame we don't have another 24 hours but the end result has certainly been impressive. Gusts to 95mph on the coast.
  20. 1 point
    Summer rolls on till middle of the Month, splendid! Then a quick cool down and snow by the end of Autumn, see you then.
  21. 1 point
    Personally I wouldn't big up or play down anything just yet. It looks like the 10C isotherm safely makes it way over the UK, which in any sunny conditions will allow temperatures to rise comfortably to 24-27C at least. If the 15C gets this far north then, again in any shine, 27-32C is still achievable in early September. All to play for in my opinion. You will of course need more of a push to get heat up there but it's certainly not out of the question just yet. 12Z rolling out soon so will be interesting to see what it heralds.
  22. 1 point
    I truly hope not, my worst nightmare, I want hard frosts and sunshine, I know its been said over and over again but there are no seasons anymore they all roll into one and there is nothing exciting about that.
  23. 1 point
  24. 1 point
  25. 1 point
    Almost forgot this one of undulating clouds? the camera did this picture no justice it was a beautiful sight!
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