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Stalling, stalling, stalling ... the Atlantic is making even slower progress on tonight's 12Zs so far. The Scandi High is looking stronger on all runs by Wednesday, which now more realistically could be hot away from the south west, as many of these runs do not clear the warm away by then. The GEM is hotter for Monday too.

Thankfully the plume doesn't last very long and a chance of a thundery breakdown fingers crossed. Deep FI has a return to perfect summer weather fresh low twenties so good sleeping weatehr and pleasant and warm in the day.

Personally i'm ready for summer to end and am always interested in the potential for a below average CET value. Uppers look quite cool by later in the week..

Morning campers - a brief look at this morning's GFS starting with the weekend. Midday Saturday sees the UK in a cool NW airstream with a few showers in the north otherwise mainly dry. But HP is nudging in from the SW and 24 hours later a high cell is centred over the Irish Sea so a dry cool day for all. At the same time, in this quite mobile pattern, a frontal system is girding it's loins out west. From this point the HP moves east, then north, accompanied by a similar movement from the front ( just east) on which small perturbations form, so that by 18z on Tuesday the front lies just to the west of the UK. This scenario briefly introduces some WAA from the south so that the southern part of England will, again briefly, be quite warm with temps around the 28C mark. The front continues the movement east bringing thundery outbreaks and possibly some substantial down pours to some areas over Tuesday/Weds. Eventually this system swings on it's axis and ends up over N. Germany as it slips under the high pressure which is now to the NE with once again the HP edging in from the south west. Overall the next seven days are quite dry with the only substantial rainfall in NW Scotland. This is of course not taking into account possible localised rainfall from convective activity next week.

The ecm this evening. Saturday is the transition day from low pressure to the north of Scotland with a WNW airflow over the most of the UK, with showers and quite cool in Scotland and the north, to high Pressure moving from the south west to an HP cell over the UK by Sunday 12z. The story from then until 18z Wednesday is of the high pressure moving slowly NE with fronts pushing slowly in from the west. This evolution continues to introduce a brief period of WAA and Tuesday is quite warm with temps 28C-30C below a line Liverpool to the Wash. By Weds 18z the fronts have arrived with thundery outbreaks over much of the UK and localised rain could be substantial although still quite warm in parts of the south and east reaching 26C-28C. The front then swivels but is slow to clear and is still lying across Scotland and N. England 12z on Friday having introduced cooler air behind it.

Well this is better from the Gfs 12z with the plume extending by an extra day, plenty of sunshine and then thunderstorms followed by a very pleasant anticyclonic low res..this is better than the 6z. The first half of next week looks very summery.

Nice today. Very autumnal. Wind, rain, and cool!

Hi everyone, well the rather dry summer continues with the only notable rainfall event in recent weeks being 20mm on Monday 1st August. A really fine week this week with plenty of sunshine and comfortably warm at around 21c maxxes. I am now a daddy and it is wonderful! We had something of a rocky ride with both my wife and my boy suffering infections at birth, but we got home last Friday after a 9 night stay at Bath RUH and all is good now!

Yes, some of us do enjoy the prospect of cool uppers and unseasonably cool weather. I am a huge fan. Why? Because it is becoming extremely rare these days to achieve record cold away from the Winter months (and even here I think our days are numbered). The final third of July 2015 was amazing for its exceptional coolness, and the very cold end to April this year was also a nice surprise. That's all we have had since July 2015. In the same time, we have seen record heat in July 2015 (hottest July day ever), one of the mildest Novembers ever recorded, the mildest December of all time, record mildness in January, record heat in May, and record heat in July just gone also. I was gutted to see that the "Arctic armageddon" that was being modelled earlier this month never really happened, because these things almost never do happen nowadays, especially in Summer. The coldest Summer of recent times, 2011, didn't even make the top 100 coldest on the CET. This is why I want unseasonable coolness, in the future it might not even be possible. It makes such spells much more meteorologically interesting when they do happen. Quite frankly, I'm bored of record heat.

The latest installment for Wednesday: A lot of warmth still around then You can see that the GEFS still has some runs reaching the magic 20C 850s mark over the UK - the op, believe it or not, is actually on the cooler side - these are the ensembles for E Sussex The precip chart for GFS shows that front trying to cross the country - anything ahead of it will be hot (maxes close to 30C in favoured spots if the front doesn't make it). The best precip chart I have for ECM is Wednesday 00am - hard to see but looks like the rain is well back It's going to be a T24 job working out what will happen with that, we've situations like these at T144 where the front doesn't even make the SW by T0, or where the front has cleared the east coast. Now onto the thundery stuff - actually Tuesday evening looks the tastiest on GFS, but Wednesday also has a chance. I suspect other outputs may differ

What a chart that is on the still image *drools*

The Gfs 6z shows a cool weekend away from the far south, mainly dry and bright with just a few showers dotted around. Early next week becomes generally warmer from the south with more widespread sunshine on Monday. Tuesday is the peak of the warm spell with temps into the mid to upper 20's c and increasingly humid, again with plenty of sunshine but isolated thunderstorms later in the day, tues night shows increasing thunderstorm risk which rumbles into midweek but it's turning cooler and fresher from the west. Following a more unsettled blip it becomes more settled and warmer as high pressure builds in..spock is intrigued by low res

That sense of Autumn's approach is unmistakable now. You feel it in your bones. The ever more apparent shortening of the days, you suddenly realise how dark it is by 9pm compared with a few weeks ago. The blackberries are almost ripe now, and the acorns, hazelnuts are growing at a good rate. Then you look at the trees and notice that some leaves are showing signs of turning. Those trees that are still fully green now have that tired late summer almost dirty green look to them in comparison to the fresh bright green colour they had at the beginning of summer. The same goes for the vegetation, that decaying tired worn out fag end of summer look. Yes Autumn is definately beginning the process of preparing itself to carry out the yearly ritual of kicking the unreliable and treacherous British summer out on its abcdefg.

Morning all Post the non-Plume, where are the models taking us further down next week ? Let's start with T+216 on the GFS 00Z OP: A bit of a dog's breakfast so to speak but with the Atlantic moribund and signs of a renewed build of pressure from the SW, albeit taking a more Northerly track than before, it should be reasonable for most albeit with a lot of cloud I suspect. The Mean at the same time shows the residue of heights to the North East but nothing too exciting: ECM 00Z at the same time: Very different evolution though less so for the south with HP never far away but the heights over Scandinavia are well and truly gone and instead we have a stiff westerly regime affecting the north of Britain with rain or showers and cooler temperatures. The trend is for pressure to build from the south, however, so improving for some at least. GEM 00Z at the same time: Something very different again. Not bad for the bulk of the British Idles under the influence of the European HP but the LP in the SW Approaches is coming our way and it all gets a bit ugly after that. I think the message from this morning is the lack of clarity. Overall, and extremely broad brush, I'd say probably not too bad for the south and probably not so good further north. You can't go too far wrong with that but for a forecast for the latter part of next week, that's all I have for now. More runs would be useful methinks...

after the last 3 days and the model changes I hope people don't fall into the trap of expecting high temps and big storms after what is only one run as these models can be fickle to put it politely might be all change tomorrow and back to a non event

Yes the GFS once again pushing high pressure over the Uk later next week. Going by the law of averages we will surely see proper anti cyclonic weather soon.

Haha! I thought the same just about to jump in the pool This is why I stay well clear of the model thread, it's a bunch of jumped up kids taking each run as if it's gospel. The thing is, the more intelligent people on here know, that even at T+0 stuff happens that no computer can predict. For instances, last week, me and @stainesbloke got a shock of our lives with a rouge shower gave us a huge flash of lightning and massive crack of thunder, yet, no showers on any high res was predicted. (nocturnal cooling of the shower cloud top allowed that to happen) The GFS and ECM won't nail next week till Sunday evening and even then take it with a pinch of salt. We can't even agree on the weekend yet!!! But all that aside, as you can all probably tell the warmer spell has now commenced fully and will last (for us down south anyway) till at least Wednesday earliest with hints of something after that too!!! Not to mention the idea of some fireworks also. And yet, the same kids in the model thread think dooms day is upon us.

How can you be ready for summer to end when it barely got going in the first place?

Fair enough Karl. It seems this summer and last the GFS slightly overdoes the northwards push of heights from Azores

I've been very disappointed with the GEFS because last week it was so promising, showing Azores / scandi high domination day after day, 4 times a day and then it shifted away from that, it led me up the garden path I admit. Next week still looks warm though, especially the first half with tuesday the stand out day. Thereafter it looks average but with another attempt at the Azores high building in but apart from that it looks like this summer will fizzle out with a whimper.

Looking at the GEFS 06Z clustering, the message is - Hot Tuesday (maybe not quite as hot as previously forecasted in the days before but still will feel hot in any sun), still a couple of runs getting the 20C 850 line over us so 90F remains a possibility, though might just fall short. - Wednesday still in the balance, depending on the northward progress of the Atlantic front (v. warm/sunny ahead, wet in the middle, sunny but a bit cooler behind) - By the weekend, the signal gets lost completely for the UK. We have heights in N Scandinavia and heights of course in S Europe and the Azores. Some runs join them up, leaving us dry but temperatures varying massively depending on the link-up. Other runs push a trough through the gap, leaving us cool, cloudy and damp. Looking at the whole set, I personally favour low pressure escaping east Thursday/Friday and pressure building again from both the south and the north - leaving us in a dry, light NEly which would make the SW the warmest spot, possibly mid-20s if that happened. At least that permanent trough to the north might be obliterated this week!

After a brief injection of WAA on Tuesday the EPS anomaly has the Atlantic trough joining forces with the cut off upper low over the Baltic States resulting in a veering upper flow and cooler temps post Wednesday.

The only autumnal thing about today is the fact it's cold and windy. Midday and only 16C!

Yes, its interesting to see both 1.2 and 3.4 opposing each other. This is borne out by the fact that we have enhanced easterlies west of 120W, but enhanced westerlies persisting east of 120W.

Another awful day in an awful jaffa cakes poor summer! Kids back to school next week so I'm hedging my bets on summer appearing about 8:45 next Wednesday morning!

Blog looking at why we are only seeing brief one day bouts of heat this summer, despite some recent tabloid headlines of a 'Heatwave For Two Weeks' on the way. View the full blog here

06 already looking less plumey still at 120hrs, with the breakdown from the west also looking a tad more progressive. At this rate even the E/SE of England will be seeing a blink and you'll miss it event.... Looking at Tues cloud and potential showers I think even a 30c somewhere is starting to look a bit of a stretch, all in all very disappointing imo.

that seems to sum up this summer in a nutshell

Yes im also enjoying the darker morning and evenings.

GFS's take on things Sunday gets to the upper 20's along the south coast Monday the highest temps are in the low 20's By Tuesday the heat starts to build with the high 20's the peak maybe just managing 30c in shelter from the wind By Wednesday it's all over with temps peaking in the low 20's So just like month the peak of the heat looks to be a Tuesday

A very cool assessment MWB.

The ecm not dissimilar to the GFS except it does delay the arrival of the front next week a little which may possible allow temps around 30C in east Anglia by 18z Weds. before the thundery wet weather arrives. The evolution after that for another time. I'm off to check on Sidney

Looking increasingly like this heat blast is going to be a blink and you'll miss it affair. Shame really, a few days ago it looked like a 2/3 day job with some big heat, now it appears it'll just be Tuesday where we might nick a 30c, then back to the usual summer theme afterwards. Thanks summer 2016, it's been......well put it this way, we won't be looking back on it kindly in 20 years time.

Tonight's 6-10 anomalies are all on the same page. Deep low over the Pole, HP northern Scandinavia an a negatively tilted trough in the eastern Atlantic. This could well indicate a surface evolution not dissimilar to this evening's ecm det run with perturbations on the southern flank of the main area of low pressure running east with potentially some dramatic convective activity over the UK and France/Germany. Just prior to this still looking at temps in the upper 20sC on the Tuesday but dropping to around average as the evolution unfolds. In the later period a similar pattern with less amplification suggests a westerly flow with a familiar N/S split with the more unsettled weather tending to concentrate to the north and temps varying around the average.

He has indeed warned about this. What he didn't mention was the war on science that has been waged by vested interests that has seriously inhibited coherent strategic policy decisions being made and has put us where we are today http://www.climatechangenews.com/2012/01/06/stephen-hawking-warns-of-climate-disaster-ahead-of-70th-birthday/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/storyline/wp/2014/11/10/five-climate-lessons-from-stephen-hawking/

What I like about this coming plume is a possibility of low pressure increasingly behind held back like in winter charts as it tries to go against High pressure to our E/NE. That spells stalling, or at least slower moving, weather front into warm/moist airmass and if/where it stalls it could be an interesting light show. Interesting few days to watch models to see just how quickly the cooler air is ushered in. It looks to still do so, but maybe not without a fight. Current charts remind me of little bit of 9th May 2008 where much of the SW. W country, Wales were battered under a slow moving cold front. Although back then a blocking high was situated over Greenland and the CF actually got pushed back West thanks to blocking high building over scandi. In this case it looks to keep pushing through.

The ECM seems very pessimistic, giving 25C as a maximum given 850s of 14/15C and a south easterly wind, that said we will probably see 30C being the maximum now on Tuesday. We have generally seen a trend to weaken the strength of the ridge pushing north which hurts temperatures on two fronts, low 500mb heights and lower 850s. That said the ridge stretches further north which could have other consequences. Todays ECM Yesterdays 12z That said I suspect we are seeing a trend to prolong the very warm and more settled spell, especially in the east, I do wonder whether we will see high pressure hang on into the second half of next week. Tonights ECM vs yesterday Well the ECM is warmer and more settled for Wednesday away from western areas where low pressure could bring some rain (possibly thundery). Temperatures again could reach 30C in the south east.

GFS 06z shows the cooler air coming in overnight Tuesday with a possible thundery breakdown in places. This brings quite a drop in Maximum temperatures compared to Tuesday-the expected peak of the hot plume. so the outlook continues to be modeled pretty much as expected with conditions returning to our more usual pattern later next week. Day 9 from both ens charts. so not looking too bad further on.A gentle westerly,fresher setup with many areas still looking quite dry after any breakdown rain next week.

December 2010 was great. At the time I was 14, and so having four days off school in the run up to Christmas was sweet.10 inches of lying snow is the most I've ever seen IMBY, and a temperature of -14C was also a record for me. I think it was probably this month that got me interested in meteorology; annoying really because if I'd already had an interest then I probably would have appreciated it so much more at the time. Four CET daily records were broken during the cold spell (28/11/2010, -4.0C; 19-21/12/2010, -6.8C, -7.0C, -5.9C respectively), and the coldest ever November CET maximum was recorded (28/11/2010, -1.0C). On top of that, the coldest ever month long period (defined as 31 days) to have started as early as November was the one which started on 27/11/2010, recording a CET of -1.5(4)C. This smashed the previous record: the next coldest such period was that which started on 26/11/1878, at -0.9C. It really was an extreme month for cold, and I hope I live to see at least one more month like it.

Just 19.7 mm of rain here in the last month. If it had been a calendar month it would have been the 18th driest in the last 40 years.

Indeed. My hands and feet are always boiling. Even in Winter I rarely get cold even when there is frost and snow on the ground. I could probably make do with absolutely no heating on all Winter if it wasn't for the missus. Sometimes I have to sneak outside for a breather to get out of the sauna!

I'm sorry but I cannot take building a massive ice wall seriously. The logistics involved in building it are mind boggling but putting that aside. It's massive in human terms but not in global climate terms where it is just a pin prick. For a start It's a small area which only reaches a tiny way into the boundary layer so why should it have any effect on the atmospheric circulation of the southern hemisphere let alone globally? And of course it will not effect ocean circulation or heat transfer. It appears to me a fantasy attempt to create an artificial vortex which in any case would just inhibit inward flows.

Sorry to say it's my kind of weather today,still in shorts and t-shirt,no way at all cold or even cool for me. Loving the freshness. We are all just programmed differently i suspect to certain types of temperature. Don't get me wrong at all,for summer today was crap,just not crap for me!

As its summer I`ll pick june best month normally, it was half term,I remember the farming forecast as it was then on the sunday thunderstorms every afternoon for the following week,how lucky was I to be off school. Widespread thunderstorms every afternoon as forecast and it was hazy and humid.

If you think it's bad now, wait until winter!

It would keep the White Walkers out too, as an added bonus.

Having been on this forum since 2004 I do find it sad when folk argue over relatively small issues over what a particular model they say is showing. Post your comments with charts to back them up but please keep the personal digs out, it is after all only the weather. We all see things from different perspectives and almost everyone on here has a bias one way or another for particular weather. One does not have to be on here for long before that becomes apparent. Get outside and have a life and enjoy whatever the weather chucks at us. Hope I am excused not posting charts, pretty unusual from me not to do that.

Ah, how can I forget February 2012! The first two weeks were bitterly cold. This is reflected in the CET value, which was 0.0C to the 14th. The running CET figure (i.e. the CET figure up to that date) was sub -1C from the 2nd through to the 5th, and also on the 11th. The reason for this was an extension of the Siberian high well into western Europe, drawing raw, dry Siberian air over the UK. Here in Essex this resulted in numerous cold, clear and crisp days, with maxima below or just above freezing. On the night of the 4th and into the 5th we had a respectable snowfall, bringing 5" of level snow. Lying snow persisted for a over a week. The days of the 10th and the 11th, and the morning of the 12th were clear and cold, with overnight lows on the 11th and 12th reaching as low as -13C in the region. I also saw freezing rain on the 12th. The thaw arrived on the 14th/15th. This led onto the second half of February 2012. From the 15th onwards almost everyday reached double figures, more often than not in the low to mid teens. I have memories of sitting outside at school lunchtimes without a blazer on in the sunshine, in February! It was an incredibly mild (warm even) end to February, and of course this warmth lasted into March for another memorable month. It was a real shame because early on in the month the Met Office were suggesting that the weather would go one of two ways after mid month; it would either continue to be bitterly cold, or it would become substantially warmer, and unfortunately for Winter lovers things went the wrong way. But it still made the month stick in my memory as being one of incredible contrast, split down the middle into two completely opposite halves. CET: 1st-14th Feb 2012: 0.0C 15th-29th Feb 2012: 7.6C Overall: 3.8C, bang on the 1961-90 mean, the two halves cancelling each other out completely.

Cantley July 2016 weather summary A fairly dry month and slightly above average temperatures over the month. My second highest ever maximum on the 19th with 34.5 Mean=18.3 (17.5) Avge Max=23.4 (22.1) the highest 34.5 on 19th and the coldest day was 29th with 19.2 Avge Min=13.2 (12.8) the coldest night 8.8 on the 4th and the warmest 18.3 on the 20th Rainfall=32.0 mm with the wettest day on the 8th with 11.2 mm, there were 13 days with 0.2 mm or more and 6 with 1.0 mm or more. No thunder, hail, frost, or snow

You would have loved it in 1981 also,the English record was set just up the road in Shawbury at -26 deg,not sure what snow they got there but we had far more here in 1981 than 2010 which created huge drifts in the wind.Also February 1986 which is still the coldest month since 1963 .