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Showing content with the highest reputation on 24/07/16 in all areas

  1. Aye, January looks a bit parky though
    7 points
  2. A blocking high in autumn is a big yes from me Sadly most people always see autumn as wind and rain, but personally I always see it as the Keatsian season of mists and mellow fruitfulness The wind and rain can be kept for the business end of the seaosn... November... Along with the first proper fogs as well. If its gonna be grey, then let it be foggy, as it least the fog is atmospheric
    6 points
  3. Can i have one of these please before the summers out
    5 points
  4. Still December is looking promising and Sidney won't have to store too many nuts.
    4 points
  5. The ecm not unexpectedly also unsettled with periods of showers and rain particularly from Weds onwards when low pressure tends to dominate rather more.Temps becoming cool by the weekend with the usual latitudinal variation.
    4 points
  6. The QBO Westerly Phase seems, on the whole to have ended and along with Lá Nina in the equatorial Pacific this would point to a colder winter over Britain, other things being equal. However, it really is too early to even make a stab at predicting what the winter will be from six months out as any number of the variables upon which one bases the predictions can change a lot in a month let alone the next six! A massive Mid-Ocean Ridge volcanic eruption in the North Atlantic south of Iceland could pump so much lava out that it warms the entire area of the North Atlantic by 2 to 3C or a series of hurricanes battering the US East Coast could bring enough warm southerly winds over much of the North Atlantic to warm the surface by a similar amount before then: This would significantly alter the outlook for the winter! I have a reasonable grasp of meteorology, but I would not want to make a winter prediction any time soon!
    4 points
  7. We are, it seems, well over the active phase of Schwabe Cycle 24 (current sunspot cycle) and it seems that the westerly-wind phase of the Quasi Biennial Oscillation has come to an end. Easterlies now dominate a large part of the stratosphere over the Equator (see here): http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/qbo/ These factors point more towards a drier early autumn period over much of Britain, particularly given colder-than-usual waters in the mid NE Atlantic and the exceptionally-retreated extent of Arctic Ice. Colder than normal seas west of Britain encourage anticyclonic curvature in the upper Westerlies whilst the easterlies above the Equator and also the start of a weak La Niná ought to encourage weaker Westerlies reaching Britain and this ought to mean high-pressure conditions for much of the country. However, the sub-arctic; the Davis Straight, Norwegian Sea, waters around Alaska and also around Iceland are warmer than normal by up to 3C (or more in places) and this, with the reduced ice-cover further north (over which middle-troposphere atmosphere thicknesses will plunge in autumn as the atmosphere cools) will encourage deep depressions to race east on the fringes of the Arctic with strong westerlies on their southern flanks. This is likely to encourage strong westerlies over Scotland and the far north of England with frequent spells of rain, particularly from late September onwards and from mid-October onwards unsettled conditions will (probably) spread to the whole country. With colder seas than normal to the west and with the prevailing wind in September-October likely to be westerly (rather than south-westerly); that flags up the likelihood of colder north-westerlies bringing sub-arctic air to Britain bringing early snowfalls to the Scottish hills and (with clear skies in any ridge following such north-westerlies) a couple of night frosts occurring before the end of October. The possible unknown is the likely frequency of hurricanes in the tropical Atlantic and typhoons in the tropical North Pacific by the time we reach September: Sea surface temperatures in the relevant areas are 1 to 2C above average now and frequent tropical storm activity is correlated with wetter but milder conditions from October onwards over Britain. There is also an increased chance of real late-season heat around late September if the North Atlantic hurricane season proves especially active. Frequent hurricanes and typhoons effectively intensify the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) along which embryonic tropical storms move westwards like pearls on a string. The resultant increase in the strength of tropical easterlies to the north increases the need for Westerlies in higher latitudes to satisfy Conservation of Angular Momentum laws. So yes, my money is (tentatively) on most of England and Wales enjoying a dry September with some warm sunny days but some chilly nights also; but whether such conditions persist through October too and whether Scotland shares in the sunny Indian Summer to any extent is rather dependent on hurricane activity (or the lack of it) much much further south. I expect western Scotland to be wetter than normal during autumn 2016 in any case because even if it is dry in September there (which I doubt very much) the strong westerlies in the sub-arctic will extend southwards so that October-November will be very wet indeed. When seas are warm at high latitudes and Arctic ice is at reduced seasonal extent the main baroclinic zones shift to high latitudes and when Westerlies shift to higher latitudes accordingly they blow closer to the axis of the Earth's rotation and have to blow harder to counter the effects of tropical easterlies (particularly if those easterlies are strengthened by ITCZ-hugging hurricanes and typhoons). This is hardly likely to be conducive to a great big high setting up over Iceland and Scandinavia to bring cold north-easterlies with lots of frosts at night with cold sunny days over Scotland this autumn. I speak as one who likes that sort of crisp frosty weather in October (the trees get some fantastic colours when that happens); but lets face it- for those of us who line north of the line running from Preston to Teesside rainy strong Westerlies at 10 to 15C are going to be much more frequent than clear nights below 0C in either October or November (unless, of course, you live on Cairngorm Summit)!
    3 points
  8. Ok... I hope nobody minds me doing this (please accept my apologies if you do), but being as I've just been thinking about the autumn that we had back in 2012 (and getting all misty and dewy eyed in the process), I've just dug out some of the photos that I took back in autumn 2012. Autumn 2012 gave us an absolutely stunning display of autumn colours here in Wales, along with sunny days, and a few misty ones as well And hopefully these photos will give people an idea of whey personally I've love to see a repeat of autumn that year I should also point out that none of these photos have been edited in anyway, these are as they are (or were), straight from the camera.
    3 points
  9. It's not crap; it's gorgeous summer conditions that so many other western countries enjoy and don't whine and whinge but just get on with it. Not very nice working in it granted, but as soon as you finish work then the lovely warmth and sunshine can be enjoyed to the max. Try riding the New York subway at this time of year; absolutely awful but millions of suited and booted workers manage to do it. Similarly, millions of Brits head abroad each year to enjoy the heat and sunshine. Must be a particularly British thing to whine about a bit of heat, that most years amount to a week if that of truly hot conditions. The other 51 weeks of the year offer far cooler rubbish, is that not enough?
    3 points
  10. Coming along nicely
    3 points
  11. Oh and forgot to add i find it disgraceful that you insinuate that us northerners are so soft that we cry into our pillows if its to hot at night!!.....Mr Teddy is not happy about that at all!
    3 points
  12. I see that Gavs Weather Vids have done another part towards the autumn 2016 forecast - Autumn 2016 Analogues (Part One) http://www.gavsweathervids.com/ So far, and after viewing this I'd say toss a coin and shout heads and tails as to eventual outcome... But Gavin appears to be starting to side with the idea of high(er) pressure dominating this coming autumn... Fine by me
    3 points
  13. Morning all The 06Z is rolling out but it's Sunday so why should I get up early ? The 00Z wasn't that inspiring until the far reaches of FI when lowering Greenland heights and a northward moving jet bring the Azores HP back in but that's a long way off and we need to see that establish as a firm route forward: Here's the 00Z OP at T+192: - hardly disastrous and the south will be okay but it's not much cop for those further north to be honest: ECM 00Z at the same time: Again, the key here is or are the Greenland heights which despite some Azores ridging keeps the jet quite a way south and the Atlantic very much in charge: GEM 00Z at the same time: No real need to comment...
    3 points
  14. There is no arguing with the fact that most people like trees, but what many often forget is that beyond just “liking” trees, we need them to survive. Trees provide us with a large portion of the oxygen we breathe, help regulate climate, and provide homes and shelters for countless animal species that we, frankly, need to keep the global ecosystem in balance. Unfortunately, deforestation and clear-cutting ancient forests has become a norm across the world. We’ve grown to prioritize industrial expansion and the production of livestock and palm oil over our vital forests and we are suffering the consequences. Thankfully, many people are waking up to the reality that we cannot live healthy, sustainable lives without the help of trees and are taking action to restore formerly destroyed forests. Most recently, Mexico City announced plans to plant 18 million trees around the city bounds and surrounding suburbs. Environment Minister Rafael Pacchiano described the project as a “historic reforestation” to reinforce the “green belt in the megalopolis.” http://www.onegreenplanet.org/news/mexico-city-to-plant-trees-to-reduce-air-pollution/ I certainly like trees,too many diseases been spread but hopefully they will get immune to it.
    2 points
  15. Certainly noticing nights drawing in now, dark by 9 tonight. Give it a couple more weeks and will be dark by 8.30! Roll on the darker evenings and fresher mornings!!
    2 points
  16. Autumn rarely seems to get going until late September recently, with the first part of Sept delivering on average our most settled conditions of the year it seems, with temps in the high teens and lots of sunny dry weather, its for this reason I don't tend to start thinking about it until later on in August. Would like a cold settled end to the season, something which has eluded these parts in recent years, indeed the last 3 autumns have seen very wet very stormy ends to autumn, only 2010 and 2012 have delivered colder quieter conditions. Would like an autumn like 2008, 2010 and 2012, which were quite traditional with plenty of frosty mornings, chilly anticylonic conditions at times, some fog, and nothing too wet or stormy. Please no repeat of autumn 2009, 2013 or 2015 especially last year, November 2015 lay the foundations for the disasterous flooding we endured in December.
    2 points
  17. You are very welcome to that crap you enjoy,didn't meet one person last week down there who enjoyed it,at least us up north don't whine about when it drops below 21c saying its cold!
    2 points
  18. I'm not old enough to remember the ultra-hot spells of days gone by, such as the Augusts of 1995 and 1997 (I turn 20 this month so I do have some vague memories of August 2003 and July 2006), and so, to me, the Summers of recent years feel very normal. So I'm simply not as accustomed to or as welcoming of hot spells when they do come. As a weather enthusiast, I am a fan of extremes, but heat is my least favourite of those extremes. For this reason, Summer 2016 has been a good one for me. Not only have I seen the dullest June on record (to have almost everyday in June totally overcast from start to finish was very bizarre), but temperatures have mostly been comfortable during the day and at night when sleeping, with a refreshing breeze to go with it. I.e. no prolonged hot spells. I fully sympathise with Markyo, London can regularly be 2-3C warmer than here in Chelmsford (from personal experience), presumably because of the UHI. I certainly wouldn't want to live there, especially during the hot spells.
    2 points
  19. Most of us here in the SE absolutely loved the gorgeous blue skies, strong sunshine and hot temperatures. Don't worry about us; we used to get spells like that in most summers before the hideous last decade, so most of us are used to a bit of heat and don't cry into our pillows at night wishing it was 17C and raining.
    2 points
  20. A cooler week than what we have endured coming up. With weak fronts pushing in off the Atlantic, Giving showers or longer spells of rain at times with temps in the mid to high teens during the day and down to single digits at night especially for the N/W so much better for sleeping in. The far S/E holds on to the warmer temps in the low 20's..
    2 points
  21. Morning Matthew Clear sunny days, (hopefully) cool clear nights, along with possibly misty starts (and ends) to the days, heavy dews on the grass... I've always said that the light in September/October is like no other time of year... I'm getting all misty and dewy eyed thinking about it Lets hope autumn 2016 can deliver where this sad excuse for a summer has failed
    2 points
  22. Today rain spreading NE during the day leaving the south and East Anglia dry and the warmest. The overall theme of this morning's GFS is remaining unsettled with the continuing tendency for systems to track SW-NE thus a sliding scale of precipitation and temperatures with the latter alternating around the average.Although from mid week until Sunday the UK is under the influence of the low pressure to the north thus a showery NW flow. But hey towards the end of the run the Azores HP becomes more dominant in mid Atlantic. Could the anomalies b right?
    2 points
  23. Tonight's anomalies show no significant change within 14 days. The trough still the dominant feature although it does weaken late on. This doesn't mean perpetual rain and gales as within the period there will the usual LP/HP waxing and waning so probably plenty of sunny periods particularly the SE segment of the UK as much of the inclement weather should track NE, Temps certainly cool in the middle period but picking up by the end.
    2 points
  24. Oh yes, like a return to cloud, wind and 20C max temps is really something to look forward to. It is not 'awfully humid' at all, humidity here is just 42% making the 28C feel absolutely lovely.
    2 points
  25. 16.9c to the 22nd 0.9c above the 61 to 90 average 0.4c above the 81 to 10 average
    2 points
  26. It seems summer weather can often arrive in September/October. Here's a reminder of last year. Much better than the summer itself.
    2 points
  27. Just to add there is historical weather lore related to full moons, viz : 1) The Full Moon eats clouds. 2) Full Moon. Tonight will be frosty! In winter, a full moon at perigree will not only be high in the sky in the Northern Hemisphere at nigh but being closer to Earth the tidal impact on the atmosphere (and particularly the strong upper Westerlies) would be greater as a result. Result: Less "need" for strong Westerlies to counter-balance tropical Easterlies to satisfy Conservation of Angular Momentum laws which means more high-pressure bringing clear cold winter nights over Britain when such winter full moons occur. Perhaps there is a grain of truth in rather more of these old weather sayings than we like to give them credit!
    2 points
  28. Under the heading of Holidays, just returned from a week in Ilulissat, Greenland and goes down as an amazing place to visit you enjoy Ice bergs glaciers hiking midnight sun extraordinary scenery cool temps - 7c sunshine tricky place to get to and expensive and only 4 hotels, but this place has so much potential. This will become a v popular destination in time.
    1 point
  29. Day 2 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 24 Jul 2016 - 05:59 UTC Mon 25 Jul 2016 ISSUED 18:45 UTC Sat 23 Jul 2016 ISSUED BY: Dan A complex frontal system will spill northeastwards across the British Isles on Sunday, beneath an upper trough. A messy mix of dynamic and convective precipitation is expected with marginal instability, and hence the broad LOW threat level issued - although it is quite likely that many areas will be void of lightning. The environment may be slightly more conducive for lightning within a narrow window of a few hours on Sunday afternoon over Northern Ireland in the immediate post-frontal airmass. Dewpoints in the mid teens Celsius combined with surface heating should yield 200-400 Jkg-1 MLCAPE, with the potential for a few scattered showers, perhaps a thunderstorm, to develop. 30-40kts DLS should allow some cell organisation to occur, with perhaps some small hail from the strongest cells. Have issued a low-end SLGT to highlight this area better. http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2016-07-24
    1 point
  30. Morning Dangerous yes I can't wait for a good anti cyclonic spell. This summer has been poor for sunshine and the general pattern looks continuing the cloudy theme into August. Can't wait for a pattern change with a blocking high. Yes misty starts too
    1 point
  31. 2014 in Basingstoke we had 2 wicked thunderstorms , 2016 not one bit of thunder, even tho it's sticky has hell, it's gone from 17 to 34 in Basingstoke within a week!! Can't cope has I have arthritis all over, can anyone tell me why don't Basingstoke Hampshire ever get a good thunderstorm , boring grey weather!!!
    1 point
  32. Your right it takes all sorts. I've never got it why people enjoy humid hot weather,each to their own.
    1 point
  33. Both the EPS and GEFs anomalies are tending to weaken the trough at the end of the run but the former less so than previously so I'm back to a watching brief on that.
    1 point
  34. Extremely, apart from this week which gave us a glimpse of how some summers used to be, with fond memories of good summer's in the past, sadly not the recent past..but hopefully August will be the best month of this mostly rotton summer.
    1 point
  35. Tamara - your posting from 19th July has very much been in my thinking since about yesterday lunchtime. More and more, the Azores High looks to be taking a break between D6 and D9. I am encouraged that ensemble output that I can see generally supports a fresh surge from the Azores High afterwards (and with main troughing perhaps further away from us, with an even more positive result than before) - but I've seen many instances where the promised rebuild of pressure fades into something less positive - I think we want to see the pressure up to 1025mb on the majority of those ensembles before confidence can grow in a better first week of August. Still, good weather for many during the first part of this week. It's reached 26C or more for 8 consecutive days, not entirely unlikely that it could be 25C over 12 consecutive days before the northerly stuff bites??
    1 point
  36. Really need some fresher conditions to get rid of the heat in the house. Some rain wouldn't go amiss either, things have been very dry here this month.
    1 point
  37. Yep can't be doing with it either. Snow & frost can't come soon enough day after tomorrow style, I would take it now in July if only
    1 point
  38. 1 point
  39. Apart from the last few days, cool, cloudy and fresh is all this damn summer has delivered, more heat please!
    1 point
  40. Yes, not very nice at the moment. Awfully humid and muggy especially at night. Will all soon be gone and we'll return to cooler, fresher days.....hopefully
    1 point
  41. Agreed, we need more of this, the first half of the summer was a nightmare but hopefully August will make amends..working in heat doesn't bother me, my favourite weather in summer is hot anticyclonic followed by a good old spanish plume, I rarely get what I want though.
    1 point
  42. I will be looking forward to my trip to Iceland this coming week. Can't wait for a break from the heat, should be looking at 14C-17C maxima which is much more up my street.
    1 point
  43. Nice to see high pressure in Fi on the Gfs 12z op run, hope it grows into a trend, ideally with troughs digging south well to the west of the uk with height rises to the S / SE / E with a continental anticyclone building north, hope the jet buckles to the west through into August with a few more plumes potential, it's the least we deserve.
    1 point
  44. The amplifying Pacific pattern continues to feed downstream, as suggested was likely within a bulk of the previous detailed post, and is now well advertised across the main models. The tendency for the Azores High to gradually relax its eastward ridge that is/has been keeping some lovely warmth across Southern UK through the latter part of the week, this weekend and into the start of the new week means that a more nationwide cooling and less settled trend will slowly ensue through the latter part of next week. A fair bit cooler indeed compared to the dizzy heights of the last week, but not at this stage too much cooler than a degree or so around the average. Its not my purpose to deal too much with micro detail though. Phil's usually well balanced type of post above describes the likely surface details across the UK of the coming days very clearly and quite succinctly The extent of any widespread less settled and cooler weather does not look too ominous at this stage, even if it also remains, as before, quite unremarkable in its prospects for any widespread and sustained heat. In the light of last weeks fleeting nationally hot conditions, which seemed to be changing perspective of this summer in various quarters both within and outside this forum, all those italicised words continue to need being carefully observed and kept in perspective beyond just the fortunes of the south of the UK who have seen the very best of what has been on offer recently. The purposes of these posts are an attempted assessment of identifying the likely weather patterns for our section of the NH based on analysis of large scale hemispheric dynamics of the atmosphere. Computer model assessment from my own point of view is geared towards (the difficulty!) of trying to get an understanding of why the models show what they do and how they might evolve (irrespective of favourable or unfavourable outcome) rather than what they show at face value and how that might meet individual weather preferences - and for any regional part of the UK. There is nothing wrong at all with the latter approach of course Vive la difference. This macro analysis continues to be the case. The balance of the atmospheric circulation is tipping a bit uncomfortably close towards a type of sustained retrogressive amplification (that has been the second half of summer threat scenario outlined in several previous summaries) and would incline towards a prematurely properly unsettled and early autumnal feel to proceedings. Thankfully for the time being at least, although atmospheric angular momentum remains moderately depressed, the oceanic base state does not have the oomph to support a full-on crash in AAM. Nonetheless, the Global Wind Oscillation looks set to be treading water in a quasi-stationary orbit during the 5 to 10 day period centred mostly around Nina-like low AAM Phase 2.... (Usual advice of not taking the GEFS forecast too literally, but its current gist looks sound enough) This phase state translates for late July into the theme of mid Atlantic/Azores ridge and annoying trough to the N and NE as previously suggested. So we can have full confidence in the 5 to 10 day outlook based on the models jiving in tune with the atmospheric circulation framework. So a cooler showery polar maritime spell likely to come to end the week and next weekend. Specifics obviously work in progress through the week. Looking into Week 2 - its hard to determine precise timings at this stage, but the tropical feedbacks described in detail previously should eventually propagate some further eastward ridging of the Azores High to return us to the rather indeterminate summer pattern we have become all too familiar with - as rather warmer and more humid conditions try to return from the SW, but are limited in national progress, amidst the continuing generally changeable westerly regime. The rut of the pattern may seem in need of renewal as does some items in my make-up bag! - but there continues to be little to force a pattern change to any definitively sustained nationwide anti-cyclonic type - beyond the temporary ridges to our south. However (although those in the NW would hope for improvement ) as the last post suggested, it could actually be a lot worse. Pattern changes are not always for the better ..
    1 point
  45. Minimum today is 14.1C, while maxima look like being in the mid 23s, so an increase to 17.0C is likely on tomorrows update. After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at: 17.1C to the 24th (19.0: +2.4) 17.1C to the 25th (17.1: +0.1) 17.0C to the 26th (16.0: -1.2) 17.1C to the 27th (18.0: +0.8) 17.1C to the 28th (18.8: +1.4) 17.1C to the 29th (17.5: -0.2) 17.1C to the 30th (17.3: -0.1) 17.2C to the 31st (17.6: +0.4) Looking a little milder for the final week now. At this stage, a finish of between 16.5C and 17.4C before corrections, and 16.1C to 17.4C after looks likely.
    1 point
  46. There is an effect on the atmosphere caused by full moons (similar at new moons) in similar fashion to the manner in which the new and full moon causes tides. At these times the gravitational impacts of sun and moon combine to cause the atmosphere to pile up in locations facing the Sun and moon directly. The combined frictional impact due to the rotating Earth will be such as to slow the eastwards angular momentum of the atmosphere. As with marine tidal friction the effect is very small but it could account for some of the statistically significant weather associated with full and new moons. If the global atmosphere loses Westerly momentum a little at full or new moon there is liable to be more of the weather associated with weaker westerlies reaching Britain: In summer that means more in the way of hot sunny weather can occur whilst in autumn and winter this increases the likelihood of settled weather bringing night frosts and fog. However the effect must be very small. It is estimated that the effect of marine and atmospheric tidal friction caused by the Sun and moon would take something like 1.5 billion years to slow the Earth's rotation by just half. It is therefore likely as not that full or new moons and atmospheric tides have no significant impact on the British weather at all!
    1 point
  47. a very warm and humid feeling week here, peaking on tuesday, enduring all that stickiness, hoping to get a storm at some point but just one pathetic rumble heard on wednesday morning, no lightning seen, tuesday had so much potential , but the timings where wrong as usual, imagine if that cap had lifted during the late evening when it was still 29c at 10.00pm , instead of wedeneday morning when the air had cooled, could have been widespread activity over the north west, instead of just over the extreme western edges bitterly dissapointed , the wait goes on
    1 point
  48. 16.8c to the 21st 0.8c above the 61 to 90 average 0.3c above the 81 to 10 average
    1 point
  49. I should caution that an extensive number crunch of all CET data shows only faint signals related to lunar declination or phase. Over about 245 years of daily data now the phase signals are seldom larger than 0.1 C deg and declination sometimes reaches 0.3 C deg, about 10% of the general variance of data. But I checked my data and found that the peaks are more aligned to southern maximum than full moon as you get away from mid-summer solstice when they are currently aligned (this shifts over very long cycles but has only moved about 3 or 4 days over the span of this data). I also did a frequency check for record daily temperatures and found it generally randomly distributed but with small peaks around the declination peaks. So I came to the conclusion that perhaps there is a weak lunar tide in the atmosphere at key longitudes (the same effects are shown in eastern North American data) but it would stand to reason that there would have to be some sort of large-scale interference pattern because not all longitudes would be expected to show peaks on the same dates relative to the forcing if there was a slow tidal influence rotating around the subtropical highs perhaps. My conclusion is that if the atmosphere is in fact being subjected to external forcings of this kind, other non-lunar effects must be larger players. But there would be room to investigate whether the declination cycle is enhanced at certain points in the 18.6 year cycle of declination, or relative to the 8.85 year cycle of lunar perigee at given declinations (perigee moves slowly forward against declination, at the present time it is about midway between southern and northern maximum and drifting towards northern maximum). If there were a weak signal you might expect it to be stronger if perigee occurred at the forcing point (just like moving a fan a bit closer to your sweating body which is what I just did). As northern maximum is just as strong a warming influence as southern, in June-July I might expect an equal number of heat waves near the new moon too. This is certainly the case in the North American data, and northern max is especially good for warm spells in autumn, when it comes a week before full moons. A fairly common regime in the data is for a long warm spell to crest at northern maximum then break down with the full moon, with colder than normal conditions peaking around seven to ten days after the full moon. This is a statistical profile more than a predictive tool if you see the distinction. Sort of like saying cold years are more likely at solar minimum.
    1 point
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