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Showing content with the highest reputation on 23/07/16 in all areas

  1. The amplifying Pacific pattern continues to feed downstream, as suggested was likely within a bulk of the previous detailed post, and is now well advertised across the main models. The tendency for the Azores High to gradually relax its eastward ridge that is/has been keeping some lovely warmth across Southern UK through the latter part of the week, this weekend and into the start of the new week means that a more nationwide cooling and less settled trend will slowly ensue through the latter part of next week. A fair bit cooler indeed compared to the dizzy heights of the last week, but not at this stage too much cooler than a degree or so around the average. Its not my purpose to deal too much with micro detail though. Phil's usually well balanced type of post above describes the likely surface details across the UK of the coming days very clearly and quite succinctly The extent of any widespread less settled and cooler weather does not look too ominous at this stage, even if it also remains, as before, quite unremarkable in its prospects for any widespread and sustained heat. In the light of last weeks fleeting nationally hot conditions, which seemed to be changing perspective of this summer in various quarters both within and outside this forum, all those italicised words continue to need being carefully observed and kept in perspective beyond just the fortunes of the south of the UK who have seen the very best of what has been on offer recently. The purposes of these posts are an attempted assessment of identifying the likely weather patterns for our section of the NH based on analysis of large scale hemispheric dynamics of the atmosphere. Computer model assessment from my own point of view is geared towards (the difficulty!) of trying to get an understanding of why the models show what they do and how they might evolve (irrespective of favourable or unfavourable outcome) rather than what they show at face value and how that might meet individual weather preferences - and for any regional part of the UK. There is nothing wrong at all with the latter approach of course Vive la difference. This macro analysis continues to be the case. The balance of the atmospheric circulation is tipping a bit uncomfortably close towards a type of sustained retrogressive amplification (that has been the second half of summer threat scenario outlined in several previous summaries) and would incline towards a prematurely properly unsettled and early autumnal feel to proceedings. Thankfully for the time being at least, although atmospheric angular momentum remains moderately depressed, the oceanic base state does not have the oomph to support a full-on crash in AAM. Nonetheless, the Global Wind Oscillation looks set to be treading water in a quasi-stationary orbit during the 5 to 10 day period centred mostly around Nina-like low AAM Phase 2.... (Usual advice of not taking the GEFS forecast too literally, but its current gist looks sound enough) This phase state translates for late July into the theme of mid Atlantic/Azores ridge and annoying trough to the N and NE as previously suggested. So we can have full confidence in the 5 to 10 day outlook based on the models jiving in tune with the atmospheric circulation framework. So a cooler showery polar maritime spell likely to come to end the week and next weekend. Specifics obviously work in progress through the week. Looking into Week 2 - its hard to determine precise timings at this stage, but the tropical feedbacks described in detail previously should eventually propagate some further eastward ridging of the Azores High to return us to the rather indeterminate summer pattern we have become all too familiar with - as rather warmer and more humid conditions try to return from the SW, but are limited in national progress, amidst the continuing generally changeable westerly regime. The rut of the pattern may seem in need of renewal as does some items in my make-up bag! - but there continues to be little to force a pattern change to any definitively sustained nationwide anti-cyclonic type - beyond the temporary ridges to our south. However (although those in the NW would hope for improvement ) as the last post suggested, it could actually be a lot worse. Pattern changes are not always for the better ..
    10 points
  2. Yes the weather is looking more shall i say changeable next week and somewhat cooler too- which i guess is inevitable after the heat of this week.. The trough to the north appears to become more influencial as the week goes on. A look at the fax for Tuesday and a GFS pressure/jet image for Thurs pretty much sums up the pattern expected It looks likely we will see a number of wavering fronts moving in from the Atlantic on that jet path although weakening somewhat as they come further south into higher pressure over the continent..A look at some of the rainfall ens graphs indeed show very little rainfall for the far south.Here for example East Sussex-just taken at random. even further north not a great deal more.Having said that though It does look like a week with more cloud about with sporadic bands of what is sometimes called nuisance rain,cooler temperatures but with some periods of brighter drier conditions which in the warm sun will feel pleasant enough.
    5 points
  3. Fingers crossed we should be seeing the end to the awful humid conditions soon,many will be as happy as i am with that,very hard and tiring week for those who have had to endure it,,..endure is the main word i feel.
    4 points
  4. Well the 12z has this for the 1st of January, I mean 1st of August sorry
    3 points
  5. Yes our usual pattern in Summer is a mean Icelandic trough against the Azores high.It really comes down to the interplay between those 2 main upper features. The jet flow between them marking the boundary.This Summer so far this has been generally pretty flat across our latitude so we are relying on any transient ridging for good weather such as have had this week. It does look like the trough will return us to more mixed and cooler conditions next week,as you say,more normal for the UK.☺
    3 points
  6. Very much a continuation of weather we have seen for the last 7 days with anyone from a line from say the Humber to Bristol seeing warm settled conditions (23-25c) and those further northwest seeing more influence from the week trough to the north west. As we have seen generally seen the settled conditions have actually been more widespread than the models have been suggesting with this weekend being a fine example I suspect that this may continue with the trough digging south West next weekend to give us another shot at hot weather. Out of interest; what was originally described as 2 or 3 warm days has tuned out to be 7 continuous days hot and sunny weathe between 25c and 31c here in Essex
    3 points
  7. Morning Gang! Here we go again..29c today and 28c for my part of the woods according to the met for the weekend! Next week looks dry, warm and sunny spells, temps not as high maybe 22-25c very pleasant in any sun! Ignore the doom posters in the mod thread, some people hate others enjoying something, especially as most are men, I have come to the conclusion, they are not getting anything from the Mrs and taking it out on here.. (lol)
    3 points
  8. Gopro recording in 4k caught this badboy yesterday! shame the trees where in the way!
    2 points
  9. I think we can safely say the ecm continues the unsettled theme and becoming cooler the second half of the period.
    2 points
  10. Yep can't be doing with it either. Snow & frost can't come soon enough day after tomorrow style, I would take it now in July if only
    2 points
  11. Apart from the last few days, cool, cloudy and fresh is all this damn summer has delivered, more heat please!
    2 points
  12. Yes, not very nice at the moment. Awfully humid and muggy especially at night. Will all soon be gone and we'll return to cooler, fresher days.....hopefully
    2 points
  13. Agreed, we need more of this, the first half of the summer was a nightmare but hopefully August will make amends..working in heat doesn't bother me, my favourite weather in summer is hot anticyclonic followed by a good old spanish plume, I rarely get what I want though.
    2 points
  14. 2 points
  15. Just had a quick look at 16-18th and first glance, along with the daily charts I run when at home and nothing as I say at first glance would have said heat over 5+ days, one perhaps? I will do a pdf on it rather than clutter up the current model comments-thanks again.
    2 points
  16. Below is the August CET from 1659-2015 in blue, the 30 year average in red and the linear trend in black. The CET this month is likely to finish somewhere between 16.2 and 17.2C after corrections. The average August following Julys within that range is 16.0C. The linear trend for the whole August record is +0.14C per century. Following this trend gives an August CET of 15.9C. The linear trend since 1850 is +0.63C per century. Following this trend gives an August CET of 16.3C. The linear trend since 1950 is +1.83C per century. Following this trend gives an August CET of 16.6C. The linear trend over the last 50 years is +1.35C per century. Following this trend gives an August CET of 16.5C. The linear trend over the last 30 years is +0.13C per century. Following this trend gives an August CET of 16.4C. It's been 30 years since a CET below 14.5C was recorded. The longest run without such a CET occurred between 1737 and 1771, 34 years. In stark contrast, during the 32 Augusts between 1881 and 1912, 11 Augusts were below 14.5C, more than 1 in 3.
    2 points
  17. The weekend Mainly dry for all with some rain moving into the NW later. Very warm in the east and quite pleasant elsewhere. Next week with this morning's GFS. After brief ridging effecting the south at the beginning of the week the rest is unsettled with an area of low pressure to the north and north east and other lows winging in from the west and phasing in with this general area bringing periods of rain to most. Temps around average.
    2 points
  18. If anyone fancies a bit of winter go to meteociel select CFS daily then 9 months ( current is 00z ) go to 14th jan - 10th feb- ice month & deep snow
    2 points
  19. Very much so i'm afraid,everybody to there own agreed but why people enjoy this type of weather is beyond me,it's just so much harder to get anything done work wise and how people this week have sat out late at night and i quote " I don't want to go to bed, I'm sat in my garden in my pants and it's truly breathtaking out here. Wish it never had to end:( " Sorry that's just strange when the vast majority are finding it so hard to sleep. Like this Quote
    2 points
  20. I managed to pick some nice cherries on tonight's GEFS 12z mean, if it's on to something, the first half of August would become summery with the Azores high building in strongly.
    1 point
  21. The GEFS 12z mean shows a gradual descent into trough domination later next week from the NW but beyond that there is a change for the better across the south initially with the jet tilting more sw / ne which encourages the Azores high to build our way with more purpose, the charts through early August indicate increasingly warm and settled conditions across the uk which will hopefully be the case, what most of us are looking for is a good August..hope this is the trend.
    1 point
  22. The thing is, the jet is not very strong like it was earlier in the summer so there must be a better chance of catching a break between Atlantic systems and allowing the Azores high to ridge NE and perhaps gain a foothold to enable a proper anticyclonic spell to develop..I note the experts offer a low chance of a prolonged warm settled spell around mid August..hope its sooner.
    1 point
  23. 1 point
  24. thanks for the info,being selfish also the rivers are in a mess too,late evening fishing only,however the Avon is awash with fish farm escapee trout at the moment,a total disgrace..........sorry minor non weather related rant lol
    1 point
  25. The one consolation is what's building in after it Nothing special temp wise high teens / low 20's but in any sunshine it will be pleasant enough
    1 point
  26. I will be looking forward to my trip to Iceland this coming week. Can't wait for a break from the heat, should be looking at 14C-17C maxima which is much more up my street.
    1 point
  27. Nice to see high pressure in Fi on the Gfs 12z op run, hope it grows into a trend, ideally with troughs digging south well to the west of the uk with height rises to the S / SE / E with a continental anticyclone building north, hope the jet buckles to the west through into August with a few more plumes potential, it's the least we deserve.
    1 point
  28. oh for goodness sake you are in kent i am in yorkshire, how the the heck do you know how it feels here!!!!!! Very strange opinion!
    1 point
  29. Difficult to pick out a 1-2 day event from those charts though.
    1 point
  30. Ok.. An M5 + M7 class flares last night which could lead to a glancing blows to Earth over the next few days.
    1 point
  31. Minimum today is 14.1C, while maxima look like being in the mid 23s, so an increase to 17.0C is likely on tomorrows update. After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at: 17.1C to the 24th (19.0: +2.4) 17.1C to the 25th (17.1: +0.1) 17.0C to the 26th (16.0: -1.2) 17.1C to the 27th (18.0: +0.8) 17.1C to the 28th (18.8: +1.4) 17.1C to the 29th (17.5: -0.2) 17.1C to the 30th (17.3: -0.1) 17.2C to the 31st (17.6: +0.4) Looking a little milder for the final week now. At this stage, a finish of between 16.5C and 17.4C before corrections, and 16.1C to 17.4C after looks likely.
    1 point
  32. Knocker - even I think your unsettled idea is looking more and more credible for the final weekend of July. I don't see any way out of a stream of lows hitting the UK tailgating on the back of the main trough. The signal for more mobility from the GEFS that I saw earlier in the week looks to be coming to fruition, only its impact looks set to be one of the worse options that I foresaw. Last weekend, some on here said "enjoy the next few days" - that didn't apply to south or east of Manchester, which continue to be very good even now - but now I really do think it is reasonable to say enjoy the next few days!
    1 point
  33. Fully take onboard about how many warm nights, a handful agreed but unlike the cold weather warm nights prevent many from sleeping so remain in the memory as unpleasant for much longer as i see it. I count myself very lucky to have aircon at home,many can't afford the cost of both purchase and running so have to suffer a uncomfortable night. Nobody complains in the winter of lack of sleep or feeling drained due to the weather,summer is great for holidays and the beach,as for working its just a pain.
    1 point
  34. Yup, not long until I'll be able to go home at the end of a night shift and it's still dark
    1 point
  35. Just to add there is historical weather lore related to full moons, viz : 1) The Full Moon eats clouds. 2) Full Moon. Tonight will be frosty! In winter, a full moon at perigree will not only be high in the sky in the Northern Hemisphere at nigh but being closer to Earth the tidal impact on the atmosphere (and particularly the strong upper Westerlies) would be greater as a result. Result: Less "need" for strong Westerlies to counter-balance tropical Easterlies to satisfy Conservation of Angular Momentum laws which means more high-pressure bringing clear cold winter nights over Britain when such winter full moons occur. Perhaps there is a grain of truth in rather more of these old weather sayings than we like to give them credit!
    1 point
  36. There is an effect on the atmosphere caused by full moons (similar at new moons) in similar fashion to the manner in which the new and full moon causes tides. At these times the gravitational impacts of sun and moon combine to cause the atmosphere to pile up in locations facing the Sun and moon directly. The combined frictional impact due to the rotating Earth will be such as to slow the eastwards angular momentum of the atmosphere. As with marine tidal friction the effect is very small but it could account for some of the statistically significant weather associated with full and new moons. If the global atmosphere loses Westerly momentum a little at full or new moon there is liable to be more of the weather associated with weaker westerlies reaching Britain: In summer that means more in the way of hot sunny weather can occur whilst in autumn and winter this increases the likelihood of settled weather bringing night frosts and fog. However the effect must be very small. It is estimated that the effect of marine and atmospheric tidal friction caused by the Sun and moon would take something like 1.5 billion years to slow the Earth's rotation by just half. It is therefore likely as not that full or new moons and atmospheric tides have no significant impact on the British weather at all!
    1 point
  37. Some pics from this afternoon's storm - very intense rainfall and some amazing CG lightning but couldn't capture it. ' -
    1 point
  38. No change with the anomalies this evening. The only chink of light that I can see is the EPS does have the trough weakening and moving east with the Azores HP ridging more towards the end of the ext period. A scenario supported by the recent EC32 for the same period.
    1 point
  39. Agreed. I'm remembering why i dislike warmer spells later in the summer. Bring on the Autumn i say.
    1 point
  40. What a vile day,way to humid under all the cloud,disgusting.
    1 point
  41. A pretty dry run with temps varying around the average next week Not bad -could be a lot worse
    1 point
  42. Very close night again,uncomfortable. Been reading some recent posts and find it very interesting how differently we feel the weather,one persons like is anothers dislike and ability to understand that eludes folk(i include myself in that). Some find 21c chilly,i can't fathom that at all,my chilly setting is 6c ish,cold below 3c. It's like we all have our stats set at different temps and our internal central heating kicks in at those temps,no two stats are set the same and i think we all find it hard to understand another persons perception of heat or cold due to this,we just can't help it.
    1 point
  43. I think the problem is your posts hint at a doom and gloom picture but in reality these are normal summer charts and many want 1976 as they want 63 in winter. There will always be better parts of the country to live in during summer and winter and these in turn will determine what weather you will normally tend to expect.
    1 point
  44. After today's storms, a Yellowhammer bathing in the temporary garden pond.
    1 point
  45. Hope this thread sticks around. Looking forward to Autumn this year, all the beautiful colours and smells. What a great time of year.
    1 point
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