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Showing content with the highest reputation on 15/07/16 in Posts

  1. 7 points
    Well a good chance that we will break our 30C duck for this summer on Tuesday. The GFS going for 27/28C widely across England and East Wales, given that the GFS can undercook max values, I suspect 30C could be reached in a few spots. There will be uncertainty in how a developing heat low over southern France interacts with the incoming Atlantic trough and hence its track and timing, the models vary on this, we could scrape another very warm or hot day on Wednesday if the timing is slower like the ECM, or we could see us back in a more unsettled if still warm pattern by Wednesday. The GFS still puts parts of the south east in the very warm category for Wednesday. It is also worth baring in mind that the temperatures in the south at least will be in the very warm category from tomorrow onwards with mid twenties possible every day and warming up further on Monday. It does take a while for the warmth to push north of the Midlands though.
  2. 6 points
    I would love it to be right but I think I recall it showing 40C+ on some of its runs last year actually, certainly there was one model doing this and I think it was NAVGEM. Best chance of getting well into the 30s would be if the exceptional uppers could be delayed by just a few hours on Wednesday morning, like on this GEFS member: The delaying of a breakdown is far from uncommon, but then again the speeding up of one is common too. Unfortunately the best of the uppers look to be coming overnight. Still, just a few days ago next week was supposed to be "back to normal", so plenty for sun lovers to be grateful for! I don't think it will be the last heat burst of the summer, regardless of what the mean charts are telling us - I think we'll see another buckle in the system in the following two weeks and another chance of a plume (*This is a hunch, not a forecast, by the way!) ..... Looking at the GEFS in a bit more detail - two clear alternatives come up by D10. The first option (example below) is a stalled low either over us or just to the east, with high pressure generally building north through the Atlantic. The result will be a northerly influence, cool and less settled, particularly in the east. 11 members follow this theme in some way. The second option (example below) sees the Azores High getting back in ahead of the low (or arguably pushing in more vigorously behind a clear low), and the low stalls to our west at least for a little while longer. This option allows for a more southerly influence and possibly another warm spell of weather. 9 members go this way in some shape or form: Therefore, it's not a good evening to consider the GEFS mean as representative. With such an even split of runs going distinctly one way or another, the GEFS mean simply flattens everything out, which betrays the fact almost all of the ensemble members have much more amplification wither in one part of the north Atlantic or another. Looking three days further ahead (D13) at the two example members I showed above, you can see something else that is interesting: For the unsettled one at D10, the trough has now cleared and high pressure is building back in. But the "settled" member at D10 now finally succumbs to the trough. Lots of the members copy a version of these runs in their evolution. What does this tell me? Probably this. The D8-D14 period may end up "averagish" on the whole. But these ensembles tell me we're not likely to see average weather on each day. Rather, we'll probably see some very good days and some very poor days. Maybe I'm stating the absolute obvious here(!), but I think this is an important point to make, especially as some on here may confuse people's forecasts of "average weather" with "no good/bad weather at all".
  3. 6 points
    Good afternoon everyone. Having been away for a few days i have only been keeping tabs on the models via a phone but reading all the posts it seems although the general westerly pattern hasn't really changed we do look like getting some real heat at least for much of England and Wales early next week via an offshoot of the main Azores high cell. A look at the charts for T84hrs Monday shows the heat being transported north from the sub-tropics as that little high cell moves across the continent. A real taste of high Summer for a short while before it breaks down later next week as inevitably the Atlantic jet returns along with more changeable and cooler weather. Days 5 and 10 mean charts from the 006 z GFS run The general outlook from these just shows the mobility still present with occasional ridging from the AH and intermittent troughs moving across from the west. A case of enjoying any fine and warmer interludes while they last.As ever these will be more noticeable further south in this pattern.
  4. 6 points
    Plenty of interest next week with some exceptional 850 temps penetrating the south coast: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=0&ech=120 Edit: Original image overwritten by subsequent runs, so ignore.
  5. 5 points
    The ecm going for a hot day Tuesday26C -28C (England) 20C -24C (Scotland) in a light south easterly and running the low north on Wednesday and running it quite quickly NE into the north North Sea by 12z Thursday and temps back to normal. But all of this is subject to change in the next couple of days.
  6. 5 points
    These 'heat spikes' never last long with weak high pressure to the east and low pressure waiting out west and heat lows developing over the nearby continent. However Tuesday for France will bring some extreme heat with ~40c likely for some. If the ~20c 850hPa line can encroach a little further northwards and time itself well for Tuesday i cannot see why 32-34c cannot be ruled out. I would not expect it to be quite as extreme as 1st July 2015 but a similarish set up and what is of note is how large the plus 15c 850hPa body of heat will be to our south and penetrating northwards. If the incoming lows could slow down a little (yes a big ask for the UK lol), then in my opinion I see a possibility of a similar style day to last 1st July. I know the NAVGEM is not the best model out there but if I remember correctly, it was not actually far off the mark with some of it's temperature predictions in last years heat spike and in the end was not so silly after all. Here is the current output for this coming Tuesday... In summary, delay the low just a bit and albeit brief, Tuesday has the potential to be a very hot day for central and southern (esp SE parts). Regardless, looks like a pretty hot one anyway! Anywhere within the 15c plus isotherm is likely to have a hot feeling day.
  7. 5 points
    If it ends up like that, i'll drive to @William Grimsley's house and gatecrash his birthday!
  8. 5 points
    You've had most of the last decade of summers to enjoy the cool and cloudy conditions. It's about time us heat lovers had something to enjoy.
  9. 5 points
    Next Tuesday/Wednesday temps could be touching 30c, With some big storms to boot for the South as shown by Net/WX-MR Model with some very high cape values..
  10. 4 points
    At the moment Tuesday still on course to be interesting before the next seven days return to westerly unsettled.
  11. 4 points
    GFS and NMM both showing some tasty CAPE values for next Tues/Weds. BBC longer range forecast published last night also mentioning thundery rain moving through mid week. It is a distance off but we may be onto something here
  12. 3 points
    Well those charts wasn't even right 12 hours ago for now so at 5 days range take the biggest pinch of salt you can manage!!
  13. 3 points
    The GFS this morning. A front moving SE tomorrow portends a mainly cloudy day, clearing behind the front, Then a cell of HP travels east influencing England with frontal systems confined to Scotland and quite warm for a time. Overnight Tuesday and Wednesday a low moves north from Iberia bringing heavy showery conditions for a couple of days before moving away north east introducing a cooler airstream before the next Atlantic systems move in by the weekend.
  14. 3 points
    I will later in the year..I think frosty would melt if the Ecm 12z verifies early next week, and the mean looks very warm as I said above. :- )
  15. 2 points
    The GEFS 12z mean looks excellent through the first half of next week for those of us fed up with this cool cloudy summer..hopefully it won't be long before it looks as good again!
  16. 2 points
    OUCH!! No offence or further damage intended Spikecollie In my defence I did say "Lets just hope that this turns into an event that loads of us, from all around the country can enjoy", and not suffer damage as a result
  17. 2 points
    I've just seen the Cape and LI chart for my area on Tuesday!! Whilst not a fan of the heat and humidity, I'll gladly suffer to watch this lot go bang!! Lets just hope for yet more upgrades as time goes on
  18. 2 points
    I don't want to put a spanner in the works but Tuesday looks increasingly hot! Hot air surging north from the Sahara. Wednesday could go out with a bang with some vicious thunderstorms.
  19. 2 points
    The Ecm 12z shows Wednesday still looks very warm / hot and humid too in the s / e and thunderstorms look likely. Nice to be talking about very warm and hot weather for the first time this summer as a realistic prospect. I'm pleased those hot perturbations I've been showing for days looks like being worth it!
  20. 2 points
    Looks like this hot spell will be short lived,enjoy while you can but i really suspect it won't be the last and i hope so to,many have been so let down by this summer it's your season and should enjoy it. Even though i hate it with a passion!
  21. 2 points
    @William Grimsley, you're house has been designated as basecamp this coming week....oh and happy Birthday.
  22. 2 points
    Thankfully this spike of warmth/heat is mainly in southern areas and prob only last 2 to 3 days at most,so I suppose I can stand it for that length of time hopefully,later next week looks much cooler.
  23. 2 points
    Andy's not negative buddy, just realistic and experienced.............it does look good though for early next week, awaiting some hopefully mouthwatering model output over the weekend
  24. 2 points
    It looks like that after a blip at the end of the week a short period of drier and pleasant (not hot) weather may be in the pipe line to complete the ten day period with HP edging north to the west and the upper trough in decline. But this may well be short lived. During the last days of July the EC32 amplifies the pattern with ridging into Greenland and a trough down over the UK. Ergo winds veering North westerly portending some unpleasant chilly weather for a few days. In fact although by this time the trough has moved east and the Azores HP becomes more influential the temps remain below average up to August 7th.
  25. 2 points
    Yep, not surprised GFS modeling has converged with ECM/UKM on a potentially stormy outlook Tues/Weds - euros always leading Already considering booking a day off for this one, should current outputs hold to Monday. Moisture in abundance, plenty of instability, and an adequate shear profile would ensure good storm development/low-end severe convective episode. Still a little too far out though, but, finally, something in NWP outputs to get interested about.
  26. 2 points
    What a cracker the Gfs 18z is next week for southern uk. For a start, this weekend looks fine and warm in the south but then through the first half of next week temps soar with 28/29c or even 30c + as hot continental air drifts north into the south of the uk with plenty of sunshine and increasing humidity and then it goes crash bang wallop with some big thunderstorms developing, it would be a very thundery and very warm midweek period, including thursday according to this run..very summery!
  27. 2 points
    18 z turning on the hairdryer for early part of next week, high 20's across southern England tues
  28. 2 points
    The Ecm 12z ens mean is a cracker during the first half of next week, largely fine with sunny spells initially and becoming very warm / hot and increasingly humid from the south as we draw continental air north across southern uk with a chance of thunderstorms breaking out and even when the main warmth subsides, it still looks warm and humid with sunshine and thundery showers, it's like the op run in many respects..could get very warm next week further south!
  29. 2 points
    Great summary C.S. Remarkable contrasts in temperature from Nw to Se, from 10c up to 26c! Just shows the significance of wind direction.
  30. 2 points
    Having recently been challenged to provide more evidence for my ideas (!), I have done what I do not think anyone on here has done before - a mini-study on the accuracy on the GFS and ECM, specifically relating to the UK. Please have a look at the attached PDF - any comments would be gratefully received, as I would like to extend this study when I get time later in the year. It was done in rather a rush, so feel free to point out any errors I have made. A summary of my findings, which cover the T144 modelling of Central England by the GFS and ECM 00Z runs for June 2016: - Overall, the GFS was slightly more accurate than the ECM - The errors made by the GFS were almost entirely due to overestimating heights. The errors made by ECM were more evenly spread between overestimates and underestimates - The ECM was slightly more likely to make bigger errors than the GFS (insignificant difference, though) - The ECM made no errors at all for “trough” dominated days GFS ECM 00Z Comparison for June 2016.pdf
  31. 1 point
    Lovely looking Ecm12z ens mean up to and including next midweek, following a warm and largely fine weekend in the south with temps into the mid 20's celsius, early next week becomes very warm or hot and increasingly humid from the south with spells of sunshine but an increasing chance of heavy showers and thunderstorms, even the north becomes warmer.We should see parts of the south hitting 30-31c on Tuesday and still into the mid to high 20's c on wednesday further south / southeast. Looking further ahead, although we lose the very warm uppers, it still looks on the warm side with sunshine and thundery showers with temps around the low 20's c.
  32. 1 point
    Good old navgem! 34c seems well overdone to me though this time....I think an isolated 30c will be about as good as we get. Not to be sniffed at in this rotten summer!
  33. 1 point
    felt like 0ct here at lunch time, never known a July day at 1pm to feel that cold, but now warm front moved through and now in TM air
  34. 1 point
    Fingers crossed for you William Lets just hope that this turns into an event that loads of us, from all around the country can enjoy... Like Early July last year
  35. 1 point
    Ugh you're right, it's only Friday. Googling MCS and MCC four days prior to a non event must be bad for ones health.
  36. 1 point
    While yesterday felt like summer, today is back to October. We had to go to Glasgow and when we arrived around 7:30am the weather typically Glaswegian - grey and chilly. However coming coming back down through the Southern Uplands the drizzle began (again quite normal) however dropping down into England the expected clearance didn't happen and crossing Shap we were in up in thick cloud, from there on the rain increased in intensity through the Lakes, Lancashire and Manchester, the rain only let up when we got back home in Runcorn around 2pm. Again a case of October in July. Meanwhile the expected warmth expected this weekend has well and truly been kicked into the long grass with a scorchio 16C expected - sadly you can't make it up.
  37. 1 point
    If anything the potental seems to have increased. Going to be a interesting say 48 hours Tuesday/Wednesday but better to look near the time
  38. 1 point
  39. 1 point
    Minimum today is 10.6C, while maxima look like reaching the mid 19s, so remaining on 15.4C on tomorrows update. After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at: 15.6C to the 16th (18.2: +1.4) 15.7C to the 17th (18.4: +2.1) 15.9C to the 18th (18.4: +1.9) 16.2C to the 19th (21.5: +4.6) 16.4C to the 20th (21.1: +3.9) 16.4C to the 21st (16.4: -0.5) 16.4C to the 22nd (15.5: -1.4) 16.4C to the 23rd (16.4: -0.5) 16.4C to the 24th (17.0: +0.4) Some very warm days now forecast in the near term, but not yet warm enough to threaten any record.
  40. 1 point
    Looking forward to some heat proper into the new week. Been meh so far this summer. Good potential for storms midweek also. Obviously after that it will be rain and cold as the kids break up for summer :-(
  41. 1 point
    Oh good, warm spell considerately waiting until the start of the working week to begin in earnest, and thunderstorms likely when I'm due to take off to Spain. Already this upcoming spell is getting a low rating from me... Bring on the next warm spell that happens over a weekend.
  42. 1 point
    ECM has much less interaction from the low pressure during Wednesday daytime - though 850s are still above 15c in the south - looking like we might see the first30c of the year in a couple of places by Wednesday, before the heat is quickly washed away. 3 warm to hot days it is then!
  43. 1 point
    I came tantalisingly close to having thunderstorms on my birthday (22nd June)- I could see the line of cumulonimbus clouds just to the south and east, but they weren't close enough for thunder to be audible. The UKMO and ECMWF do show a classic south-west thunderstorms setup for around 20 July, but we need the GFS on board as well to be able to get much confidence in it coming off.
  44. 1 point
    Saturday through to Monday seems broadly westerly based but with a north/south split, the south sitting in tropical maritime air with 850s around 8-12C. So in any sunshine temperatures could hit the mid or even high twenties. So the south looks very warm and rather humid, the north looks variable with conditions rather cool early on but improve later as the warmth over the south spreads north. Tuesday onwards looks complex as we see whether a cold pool developing over the Azores will interact with the approaching Atlantic trough and allow some very hot air sitting over Spain and France to push north over the UK for a time. The ECM looks interesting... 30C would be possible on Tuesday in the south potentially, not so sure about Wednesday as we see a thundery low move northwards but potentially eastern areas could see another very warm or hot day on Wednesday if this verifies. The UKMO is very similar in evolution out to day 6. The American models (GFS and GEM) not so keen with the former going for a soft breakdown from the north west after a few warm/very warm days whilst the GEM tends to keep conditions settled and warm until the following weekend when it develops a plume event much later on in the run.
  45. 1 point
    Oh dear, it's not the end of the world, is it?
  46. 1 point
    the average temp is nonsense in a sense that its taken over 20/30 year period..Ie you could have colder julys..And Julys like 2006/2013 and 14 make up the over all average..So 5 july months are between 17and 21c over all and July 2013 which had a very strong heatwave for almost the entire month.. Just becaue you expect London to have 23c for the month.. Doesnt mean it will happen that year. Just means a previous year was hotter than the average..
  47. 1 point
    When I see people wearing shorts at the same time I am wearing a coat, I just think they are nuts. The last 2 days have been coat weather, even though I have seen nutters wearing shorts.
  48. 1 point
    The chill in the air that you are feeling isn't happening because we are getting closer to Autumn, it's just because the Summer weather is absolutely awful. We aren't half way through Summer yet.
  49. 1 point
    Considering it is autumn all year round in the UK, the weather hasn't been that bad lately. Only 3 months of autumn left, before autumn starts.
  50. 1 point
    We dipped to 7c last night
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