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Showing content with the highest reputation on 15/07/16 in Posts

  1. Well a good chance that we will break our 30C duck for this summer on Tuesday. The GFS going for 27/28C widely across England and East Wales, given that the GFS can undercook max values, I suspect 30C could be reached in a few spots. There will be uncertainty in how a developing heat low over southern France interacts with the incoming Atlantic trough and hence its track and timing, the models vary on this, we could scrape another very warm or hot day on Wednesday if the timing is slower like the ECM, or we could see us back in a more unsettled if still warm pattern by Wednesday. The GFS still puts parts of the south east in the very warm category for Wednesday. It is also worth baring in mind that the temperatures in the south at least will be in the very warm category from tomorrow onwards with mid twenties possible every day and warming up further on Monday. It does take a while for the warmth to push north of the Midlands though.
    7 points
  2. I would love it to be right but I think I recall it showing 40C+ on some of its runs last year actually, certainly there was one model doing this and I think it was NAVGEM. Best chance of getting well into the 30s would be if the exceptional uppers could be delayed by just a few hours on Wednesday morning, like on this GEFS member: The delaying of a breakdown is far from uncommon, but then again the speeding up of one is common too. Unfortunately the best of the uppers look to be coming overnight. Still, just a few days ago next week was supposed to be "back to normal", so plenty for sun lovers to be grateful for! I don't think it will be the last heat burst of the summer, regardless of what the mean charts are telling us - I think we'll see another buckle in the system in the following two weeks and another chance of a plume (*This is a hunch, not a forecast, by the way!) ..... Looking at the GEFS in a bit more detail - two clear alternatives come up by D10. The first option (example below) is a stalled low either over us or just to the east, with high pressure generally building north through the Atlantic. The result will be a northerly influence, cool and less settled, particularly in the east. 11 members follow this theme in some way. The second option (example below) sees the Azores High getting back in ahead of the low (or arguably pushing in more vigorously behind a clear low), and the low stalls to our west at least for a little while longer. This option allows for a more southerly influence and possibly another warm spell of weather. 9 members go this way in some shape or form: Therefore, it's not a good evening to consider the GEFS mean as representative. With such an even split of runs going distinctly one way or another, the GEFS mean simply flattens everything out, which betrays the fact almost all of the ensemble members have much more amplification wither in one part of the north Atlantic or another. Looking three days further ahead (D13) at the two example members I showed above, you can see something else that is interesting: For the unsettled one at D10, the trough has now cleared and high pressure is building back in. But the "settled" member at D10 now finally succumbs to the trough. Lots of the members copy a version of these runs in their evolution. What does this tell me? Probably this. The D8-D14 period may end up "averagish" on the whole. But these ensembles tell me we're not likely to see average weather on each day. Rather, we'll probably see some very good days and some very poor days. Maybe I'm stating the absolute obvious here(!), but I think this is an important point to make, especially as some on here may confuse people's forecasts of "average weather" with "no good/bad weather at all".
    6 points
  3. Good afternoon everyone. Having been away for a few days i have only been keeping tabs on the models via a phone but reading all the posts it seems although the general westerly pattern hasn't really changed we do look like getting some real heat at least for much of England and Wales early next week via an offshoot of the main Azores high cell. A look at the charts for T84hrs Monday shows the heat being transported north from the sub-tropics as that little high cell moves across the continent. A real taste of high Summer for a short while before it breaks down later next week as inevitably the Atlantic jet returns along with more changeable and cooler weather. Days 5 and 10 mean charts from the 006 z GFS run The general outlook from these just shows the mobility still present with occasional ridging from the AH and intermittent troughs moving across from the west. A case of enjoying any fine and warmer interludes while they last.As ever these will be more noticeable further south in this pattern.
    6 points
  4. Plenty of interest next week with some exceptional 850 temps penetrating the south coast: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=0&ech=120 Edit: Original image overwritten by subsequent runs, so ignore.
    6 points
  5. The ecm going for a hot day Tuesday26C -28C (England) 20C -24C (Scotland) in a light south easterly and running the low north on Wednesday and running it quite quickly NE into the north North Sea by 12z Thursday and temps back to normal. But all of this is subject to change in the next couple of days.
    5 points
  6. These 'heat spikes' never last long with weak high pressure to the east and low pressure waiting out west and heat lows developing over the nearby continent. However Tuesday for France will bring some extreme heat with ~40c likely for some. If the ~20c 850hPa line can encroach a little further northwards and time itself well for Tuesday i cannot see why 32-34c cannot be ruled out. I would not expect it to be quite as extreme as 1st July 2015 but a similarish set up and what is of note is how large the plus 15c 850hPa body of heat will be to our south and penetrating northwards. If the incoming lows could slow down a little (yes a big ask for the UK lol), then in my opinion I see a possibility of a similar style day to last 1st July. I know the NAVGEM is not the best model out there but if I remember correctly, it was not actually far off the mark with some of it's temperature predictions in last years heat spike and in the end was not so silly after all. Here is the current output for this coming Tuesday... In summary, delay the low just a bit and albeit brief, Tuesday has the potential to be a very hot day for central and southern (esp SE parts). Regardless, looks like a pretty hot one anyway! Anywhere within the 15c plus isotherm is likely to have a hot feeling day.
    5 points
  7. If it ends up like that, i'll drive to @William Grimsley's house and gatecrash his birthday!
    5 points
  8. You've had most of the last decade of summers to enjoy the cool and cloudy conditions. It's about time us heat lovers had something to enjoy.
    5 points
  9. Next Tuesday/Wednesday temps could be touching 30c, With some big storms to boot for the South as shown by Net/WX-MR Model with some very high cape values..
    5 points
  10. At the moment Tuesday still on course to be interesting before the next seven days return to westerly unsettled.
    4 points
  11. GFS and NMM both showing some tasty CAPE values for next Tues/Weds. BBC longer range forecast published last night also mentioning thundery rain moving through mid week. It is a distance off but we may be onto something here
    4 points
  12. Well those charts wasn't even right 12 hours ago for now so at 5 days range take the biggest pinch of salt you can manage!!
    3 points
  13. The GFS this morning. A front moving SE tomorrow portends a mainly cloudy day, clearing behind the front, Then a cell of HP travels east influencing England with frontal systems confined to Scotland and quite warm for a time. Overnight Tuesday and Wednesday a low moves north from Iberia bringing heavy showery conditions for a couple of days before moving away north east introducing a cooler airstream before the next Atlantic systems move in by the weekend.
    3 points
  14. I will later in the year..I think frosty would melt if the Ecm 12z verifies early next week, and the mean looks very warm as I said above. :- )
    3 points
  15. The GEFS 12z mean looks excellent through the first half of next week for those of us fed up with this cool cloudy summer..hopefully it won't be long before it looks as good again!
    2 points
  16. OUCH!! No offence or further damage intended Spikecollie In my defence I did say "Lets just hope that this turns into an event that loads of us, from all around the country can enjoy", and not suffer damage as a result
    2 points
  17. I've just seen the Cape and LI chart for my area on Tuesday!! Whilst not a fan of the heat and humidity, I'll gladly suffer to watch this lot go bang!! Lets just hope for yet more upgrades as time goes on
    2 points
  18. I don't want to put a spanner in the works but Tuesday looks increasingly hot! Hot air surging north from the Sahara. Wednesday could go out with a bang with some vicious thunderstorms.
    2 points
  19. The Ecm 12z shows Wednesday still looks very warm / hot and humid too in the s / e and thunderstorms look likely. Nice to be talking about very warm and hot weather for the first time this summer as a realistic prospect. I'm pleased those hot perturbations I've been showing for days looks like being worth it!
    2 points
  20. Looks like this hot spell will be short lived,enjoy while you can but i really suspect it won't be the last and i hope so to,many have been so let down by this summer it's your season and should enjoy it. Even though i hate it with a passion!
    2 points
  21. @William Grimsley, you're house has been designated as basecamp this coming week....oh and happy Birthday.
    2 points
  22. Thankfully this spike of warmth/heat is mainly in southern areas and prob only last 2 to 3 days at most,so I suppose I can stand it for that length of time hopefully,later next week looks much cooler.
    2 points
  23. Andy's not negative buddy, just realistic and experienced.............it does look good though for early next week, awaiting some hopefully mouthwatering model output over the weekend
    2 points
  24. It looks like that after a blip at the end of the week a short period of drier and pleasant (not hot) weather may be in the pipe line to complete the ten day period with HP edging north to the west and the upper trough in decline. But this may well be short lived. During the last days of July the EC32 amplifies the pattern with ridging into Greenland and a trough down over the UK. Ergo winds veering North westerly portending some unpleasant chilly weather for a few days. In fact although by this time the trough has moved east and the Azores HP becomes more influential the temps remain below average up to August 7th.
    2 points
  25. Yep, not surprised GFS modeling has converged with ECM/UKM on a potentially stormy outlook Tues/Weds - euros always leading Already considering booking a day off for this one, should current outputs hold to Monday. Moisture in abundance, plenty of instability, and an adequate shear profile would ensure good storm development/low-end severe convective episode. Still a little too far out though, but, finally, something in NWP outputs to get interested about.
    2 points
  26. What a cracker the Gfs 18z is next week for southern uk. For a start, this weekend looks fine and warm in the south but then through the first half of next week temps soar with 28/29c or even 30c + as hot continental air drifts north into the south of the uk with plenty of sunshine and increasing humidity and then it goes crash bang wallop with some big thunderstorms developing, it would be a very thundery and very warm midweek period, including thursday according to this run..very summery!
    2 points
  27. 18 z turning on the hairdryer for early part of next week, high 20's across southern England tues
    2 points
  28. The Ecm 12z ens mean is a cracker during the first half of next week, largely fine with sunny spells initially and becoming very warm / hot and increasingly humid from the south as we draw continental air north across southern uk with a chance of thunderstorms breaking out and even when the main warmth subsides, it still looks warm and humid with sunshine and thundery showers, it's like the op run in many respects..could get very warm next week further south!
    2 points
  29. Great summary C.S. Remarkable contrasts in temperature from Nw to Se, from 10c up to 26c! Just shows the significance of wind direction.
    2 points
  30. Having recently been challenged to provide more evidence for my ideas (!), I have done what I do not think anyone on here has done before - a mini-study on the accuracy on the GFS and ECM, specifically relating to the UK. Please have a look at the attached PDF - any comments would be gratefully received, as I would like to extend this study when I get time later in the year. It was done in rather a rush, so feel free to point out any errors I have made. A summary of my findings, which cover the T144 modelling of Central England by the GFS and ECM 00Z runs for June 2016: - Overall, the GFS was slightly more accurate than the ECM - The errors made by the GFS were almost entirely due to overestimating heights. The errors made by ECM were more evenly spread between overestimates and underestimates - The ECM was slightly more likely to make bigger errors than the GFS (insignificant difference, though) - The ECM made no errors at all for “trough” dominated days GFS ECM 00Z Comparison for June 2016.pdf
    2 points
  31. Haha, I doubt it this time. It's a shame that the GFS doesn't want to break a lot out over this area but further north, again not sure how thundery this will be, but things will most likely change to hopefully be more favourable for all parts instead of the Irish Sea... Feel free, wouldn't mind meeting you! Thanks, it's a great place for thunderstorm watching! Yeah, it's looking good, I'm not getting my hopes up, though looks like if we do get anything, it will be quite severe!
    1 point
  32. Minimum today is 10.6C, while maxima look like reaching the mid 19s, so remaining on 15.4C on tomorrows update. After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at: 15.6C to the 16th (18.2: +1.4) 15.7C to the 17th (18.4: +2.1) 15.9C to the 18th (18.4: +1.9) 16.2C to the 19th (21.5: +4.6) 16.4C to the 20th (21.1: +3.9) 16.4C to the 21st (16.4: -0.5) 16.4C to the 22nd (15.5: -1.4) 16.4C to the 23rd (16.4: -0.5) 16.4C to the 24th (17.0: +0.4) Some very warm days now forecast in the near term, but not yet warm enough to threaten any record.
    1 point
  33. Looking forward to some heat proper into the new week. Been meh so far this summer. Good potential for storms midweek also. Obviously after that it will be rain and cold as the kids break up for summer :-(
    1 point
  34. Oh good, warm spell considerately waiting until the start of the working week to begin in earnest, and thunderstorms likely when I'm due to take off to Spain. Already this upcoming spell is getting a low rating from me... Bring on the next warm spell that happens over a weekend.
    1 point
  35. ECM has much less interaction from the low pressure during Wednesday daytime - though 850s are still above 15c in the south - looking like we might see the first30c of the year in a couple of places by Wednesday, before the heat is quickly washed away. 3 warm to hot days it is then!
    1 point
  36. Look like something out of the states with Cape and LI values that high! Seriously though, this could end up with some fairly big heat and some unbelievable storms by next Wednesday!! Thursday could be an absolute contrast with temps 10c lower in places!
    1 point
  37. Massive swing in the right direction from the GFS. A stonker of a plume from Monday to late Wednesday! Main concern would be the nasty storms that would result. Substantial wind shear overlapping a very unstable environment. A close eye and bated breath will await each run from now on in!
    1 point
  38. wow 18z is the hottest run ive seen this year, definitely entering heatwave territory. Go home 18z your drunk!!
    1 point
  39. I came tantalisingly close to having thunderstorms on my birthday (22nd June)- I could see the line of cumulonimbus clouds just to the south and east, but they weren't close enough for thunder to be audible. The UKMO and ECMWF do show a classic south-west thunderstorms setup for around 20 July, but we need the GFS on board as well to be able to get much confidence in it coming off.
    1 point
  40. Given how bad the Augusts of 2011 and 2014 were, it's hard to imagine just how you'd get a sub 14 summer month.
    1 point
  41. Just an observation from further south but thunderstorms have increased here in the last 50 years from being confined to mid summer in late July early August in my childhood to occuring today from late April to end of September. Outwith this I have seen lightning in December 2010 over the hills . Another observation is the increase in forked lightning today compared to 50 years ago when sheet lightning dominated in my area. Please feel free to move if off topic. This culminated in my first ever loss of a cow and calf to lightning three years ago in early July.
    1 point
  42. The ecm 6-10 anomaly not looking too bad. Fairly weak ridging mid Atlantic, positive anomaly Greenland and a weak trough would indicate reasonable warm weather for much of England with Scotland once again being the recipient of most of the unsettled stuff. In the ext period still looking at positive height build up mid Atlantic with a trough down over the UK which is not good.
    1 point
  43. Firefly has been out in the Caingorms with the BBC Countryfile team this week to be veiwed this Sunday.
    1 point
  44. Saturday through to Monday seems broadly westerly based but with a north/south split, the south sitting in tropical maritime air with 850s around 8-12C. So in any sunshine temperatures could hit the mid or even high twenties. So the south looks very warm and rather humid, the north looks variable with conditions rather cool early on but improve later as the warmth over the south spreads north. Tuesday onwards looks complex as we see whether a cold pool developing over the Azores will interact with the approaching Atlantic trough and allow some very hot air sitting over Spain and France to push north over the UK for a time. The ECM looks interesting... 30C would be possible on Tuesday in the south potentially, not so sure about Wednesday as we see a thundery low move northwards but potentially eastern areas could see another very warm or hot day on Wednesday if this verifies. The UKMO is very similar in evolution out to day 6. The American models (GFS and GEM) not so keen with the former going for a soft breakdown from the north west after a few warm/very warm days whilst the GEM tends to keep conditions settled and warm until the following weekend when it develops a plume event much later on in the run.
    1 point
  45. Oh dear, it's not the end of the world, is it?
    1 point
  46. the average temp is nonsense in a sense that its taken over 20/30 year period..Ie you could have colder julys..And Julys like 2006/2013 and 14 make up the over all average..So 5 july months are between 17and 21c over all and July 2013 which had a very strong heatwave for almost the entire month.. Just becaue you expect London to have 23c for the month.. Doesnt mean it will happen that year. Just means a previous year was hotter than the average..
    1 point
  47. When I see people wearing shorts at the same time I am wearing a coat, I just think they are nuts. The last 2 days have been coat weather, even though I have seen nutters wearing shorts.
    1 point
  48. mid july and still too cold to sit out in the garden without a thick sweater on to be comfortable
    1 point
  49. just need to get rid of this horrid NW'ly, worst wind direction here, so prone to rain from the Cheshire gap, washout yesterday, today rain at times morning, tomorrow looks wet as well, thank heavens change due Friday autumn mornings as well, could see breath this morning just before 8am
    1 point
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