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Showing content with the highest reputation on 15/07/16 in all areas

  1. 6 points
    Plenty of interest next week with some exceptional 850 temps penetrating the south coast: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=0&ech=120 Edit: Original image overwritten by subsequent runs, so ignore.
  2. 5 points
    Next Tuesday/Wednesday temps could be touching 30c, With some big storms to boot for the South as shown by Net/WX-MR Model with some very high cape values..
  3. 4 points
    GFS and NMM both showing some tasty CAPE values for next Tues/Weds. BBC longer range forecast published last night also mentioning thundery rain moving through mid week. It is a distance off but we may be onto something here
  4. 3 points
    Well those charts wasn't even right 12 hours ago for now so at 5 days range take the biggest pinch of salt you can manage!!
  5. 3 points
    The GFS this morning. A front moving SE tomorrow portends a mainly cloudy day, clearing behind the front, Then a cell of HP travels east influencing England with frontal systems confined to Scotland and quite warm for a time. Overnight Tuesday and Wednesday a low moves north from Iberia bringing heavy showery conditions for a couple of days before moving away north east introducing a cooler airstream before the next Atlantic systems move in by the weekend.
  6. 3 points
    I will later in the year..I think frosty would melt if the Ecm 12z verifies early next week, and the mean looks very warm as I said above. :- )
  7. 2 points
    Andy's not negative buddy, just realistic and experienced.............it does look good though for early next week, awaiting some hopefully mouthwatering model output over the weekend
  8. 2 points
    It looks like that after a blip at the end of the week a short period of drier and pleasant (not hot) weather may be in the pipe line to complete the ten day period with HP edging north to the west and the upper trough in decline. But this may well be short lived. During the last days of July the EC32 amplifies the pattern with ridging into Greenland and a trough down over the UK. Ergo winds veering North westerly portending some unpleasant chilly weather for a few days. In fact although by this time the trough has moved east and the Azores HP becomes more influential the temps remain below average up to August 7th.
  9. 2 points
    Yep, not surprised GFS modeling has converged with ECM/UKM on a potentially stormy outlook Tues/Weds - euros always leading Already considering booking a day off for this one, should current outputs hold to Monday. Moisture in abundance, plenty of instability, and an adequate shear profile would ensure good storm development/low-end severe convective episode. Still a little too far out though, but, finally, something in NWP outputs to get interested about.
  10. 2 points
    What a cracker the Gfs 18z is next week for southern uk. For a start, this weekend looks fine and warm in the south but then through the first half of next week temps soar with 28/29c or even 30c + as hot continental air drifts north into the south of the uk with plenty of sunshine and increasing humidity and then it goes crash bang wallop with some big thunderstorms developing, it would be a very thundery and very warm midweek period, including thursday according to this run..very summery!
  11. 2 points
    18 z turning on the hairdryer for early part of next week, high 20's across southern England tues
  12. 2 points
    The Ecm 12z ens mean is a cracker during the first half of next week, largely fine with sunny spells initially and becoming very warm / hot and increasingly humid from the south as we draw continental air north across southern uk with a chance of thunderstorms breaking out and even when the main warmth subsides, it still looks warm and humid with sunshine and thundery showers, it's like the op run in many respects..could get very warm next week further south!
  13. 2 points
    Great summary C.S. Remarkable contrasts in temperature from Nw to Se, from 10c up to 26c! Just shows the significance of wind direction.
  14. 2 points
    Having recently been challenged to provide more evidence for my ideas (!), I have done what I do not think anyone on here has done before - a mini-study on the accuracy on the GFS and ECM, specifically relating to the UK. Please have a look at the attached PDF - any comments would be gratefully received, as I would like to extend this study when I get time later in the year. It was done in rather a rush, so feel free to point out any errors I have made. A summary of my findings, which cover the T144 modelling of Central England by the GFS and ECM 00Z runs for June 2016: - Overall, the GFS was slightly more accurate than the ECM - The errors made by the GFS were almost entirely due to overestimating heights. The errors made by ECM were more evenly spread between overestimates and underestimates - The ECM was slightly more likely to make bigger errors than the GFS (insignificant difference, though) - The ECM made no errors at all for “trough” dominated days GFS ECM 00Z Comparison for June 2016.pdf
  15. 1 point
    I wasn't sure where to put this, so I created a new topic... http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-news-from-elsewhere-36735506 Poor little mites
  16. 1 point
  17. 1 point
    wow 18z is the hottest run ive seen this year, definitely entering heatwave territory. Go home 18z your drunk!!
  18. 1 point
    Given how bad the Augusts of 2011 and 2014 were, it's hard to imagine just how you'd get a sub 14 summer month.
  19. 1 point
    Just an observation from further south but thunderstorms have increased here in the last 50 years from being confined to mid summer in late July early August in my childhood to occuring today from late April to end of September. Outwith this I have seen lightning in December 2010 over the hills . Another observation is the increase in forked lightning today compared to 50 years ago when sheet lightning dominated in my area. Please feel free to move if off topic. This culminated in my first ever loss of a cow and calf to lightning three years ago in early July.
  20. 1 point
    I think B87 is perfectly aware how the CET is calculated. He's just not interested because regardless of the CET value the weather in general hasn't been very good. The SE bore the brunt of June's exceptional dullness. It was a much better month the further north and west you went.
  21. 1 point
    the average temp is nonsense in a sense that its taken over 20/30 year period..Ie you could have colder julys..And Julys like 2006/2013 and 14 make up the over all average..So 5 july months are between 17and 21c over all and July 2013 which had a very strong heatwave for almost the entire month.. Just becaue you expect London to have 23c for the month.. Doesnt mean it will happen that year. Just means a previous year was hotter than the average..
  22. 1 point
    When I see people wearing shorts at the same time I am wearing a coat, I just think they are nuts. The last 2 days have been coat weather, even though I have seen nutters wearing shorts.
  23. 1 point
    The chill in the air that you are feeling isn't happening because we are getting closer to Autumn, it's just because the Summer weather is absolutely awful. We aren't half way through Summer yet.
  24. 1 point
    Considering it is autumn all year round in the UK, the weather hasn't been that bad lately. Only 3 months of autumn left, before autumn starts.
  25. 1 point
    Probably drinking a few export Guinness stuck on the top of a wave in the North Atlantic.
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