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Ok.....Go back and read my posts from 2,3 months back. I said repeatedly I expected a warm late spring and poss into June before a deterioration further in to summer. The posts are there somewhere...go find them. I can't be bothered arguing but just as some repeatedly said that a warm nino winter was odds on, I felt the same about summer coming off the back of such a strong nino. It was black and white for me. Just a shame you have to feel the need to ridicule those who happen to want to share their thoughts and take the time to at least try and explain why in even a simple fashion. Personally, (and some people really haven't grasped this), it makes little odds to me whether it's warm, cold, wet or dry. I merely say how I see it, yet some people tend to take offence to any prediction as if it were some personal attack to themselves. To make your argument even more devoid of any credibility, I predicted quite a good summer last year! So I don't always predict the same thing as some people would like to argue. It's not even like I enjoy backslapping...I wouldn't even bring up the fact I called it had it not been for people like you who seem to want to launch a 'but you got it wrong X amount of times' style attack at the mere hint of a forecast which goes against your personal weather preferences. I highly doubt you'd have said a dickie bird had I been calling for a 1976 re-run!

What ever you do don't do that frosty,its small mined people who can't accept a individuals enjoyment of the weather,either it be hot old cold.Banter yep thats fine,but crossing the line to having a go due to someones opinion and enjoyment is out of order. Long may you remain!!

Exactly, I have been accused of misleading, hopecasting etc and the criticism hurts because it's my love of the weather that brought me to netweather and it would be a shame if the critical comments make me call it a day :- )

Well,i canceled the upload on the thunderstorm vid because i have just watched it and all i saw was a few flashes,oh well,better look next time meanwhile here is a few pics from yesterday to make up for it late morning convection early afternoon,i like this beauty wallcloud approaching,this i liked too late afternoon,Hull storm developing Lincolnshire storm forgot to mention this earlier but i did see another funnel,that's two in one day

Again for the 3rd time today can we please only discuss what the the 'Model Outputs' are showing and leave chit chat/bickering and off topic one liners to the pm system, Or if relevent to the Summer thread or posts will have start to go missing. Many Thanks.

Very much agree,it's not straw clutching,could be a hint of a change but next 5/7 days will firm it up,the models may be starting to slightly align but early days. But then again it could all prove the opposite as so often,but as like in winter everybody should enjoy the chase of their preference and not be criticised for this!!

Not posted in here for a while, as been lurking in the convective threads given the thunderiest June I can remember in my 40 years. But, my goodness, whatever happened to high pressure blocks in high summer that used to bring a week or a few weeks of fine settled weather? OK, I don't expect them every summer, but can't remember the last time we experienced them, recent summers seems to be dominated by cyclonic westerlies. The 00z extended EPS H500 mean showed a trough over the UK throughout to day 15, the current 12z GEFS H500 mean through to day 15 does, so expect the 12z EPS will do too. The weather is certainly reflecting the political mood of the country for now! But with 2 months of summer left and September, if you except the shorter days, plenty of time yet I guess...

Well my funnel cloud vid has just finished uploading,sorry about the focus going in and out as i did not set the camera in the right settings,had to record this strait away in case i missed it,here it is....enjoy here is a pic of a CB going up in the early stages of the storm and i didn't realise at first that there was a funnel cloud in there,i imediately zoomed in and took another pic then began filming straight away the thunderstorm footage is still uploading so will be a while and i will probabley have to edit it or i may post the whole ten minutes on here though as i am rubbish at editing lol i will also post some more piccies later for you all to druel on

Its all for the melting pot

I'm not saying this is correct by any means, just going by it as a guide: The storm risk seems to be on par with what convectiveweather.co.uk think. I still remain very sceptical about anything in the SW (England)

Maybe not for all

Please don't mention that day lol

There was lightning detected somewhere in the UK on 12 of the first 14 days of this month and on 21 days of the month to this point. Some of these days saw widespread storms, some saw disruptive storms. That is pretty good going by anyone's standards and has been in my opinion the most active June since I started chasing in 2004. This time 4 years ago we were staring down the barrel of what would go on to become one of the biggest storm days of the last decade

Yes I did see it thats what prompted me to take a look. Its interesting for me to see what happens with this forecast and it being a small area, its a learning curve. The deep layer shear is coupled with nearly 30knts of low layer shear. Would be well interested with this setup myself. Can understand the tornado risk. I looked at the surface winds and they were quite strong which prompted me to check the LLS. As always I would be cautious to get too excited but would be looking around with interest

No real slivers of light with the ecm and EPS ext and NOAA tonight. The 6-10 sees the UK still in the clutches of the trough so still unsettled with temps depressed. Moving into the ext period no real change although the trough does weaken and the ecm has it more negatively tilted so the HP does become slightly more influential, certainly for the southern half of Britain and if, big if, this trend continues we could see the Azores ridge pushing NE portending some better weather.

It does look rather interesting for your neck of the woods William. Seems also to be potential for Ireland and later on in the day for Scotland. Equilibrium level for the southwest isn't as high (20 - 25000ft) but skew-t for Newton Poppleford has around 600j/kg of CAPE build up by 1800 with the current run. Lightning wizard has significant tornado parameters and up to 300 SRH although county of Devon skew-T has 191SRH at 12z down to 40 at 18z but that is still enough I think. It is a small area however and SRH may drop before storms finally get going so not sure how it would transpire if anything does fire there. Lightning wizard insists SRH for right movers will still be 200-300SRH at 18z. We shall have to see. Worth looking to any low cloud bases that you may be able to see for rotation and good luck!

No real signs from the GEFS anomalies this evening of any major alteration to the upper air pattern of recent days. Still the low pressure over northern Canada/Greenland with associated trough in the eastern Atlantic. Ergo remaining unsettled with the usual caveat of a NW/SE split and temps probably a tad below average for the period.

The GEFS 12z mean shows an improvement across the south early next week with some fine pleasantly warm weather, as per the op and longer term, there are again signs that the trough influence will reduce with increasing support for the Azores high (ridge) to build our way :- )

A better run from GFS with high pressure starting to get closer by ok no heatwave but its better than we'll be seeing at times this week! Ok this is D10 I know but it shows an improvement on the 06z Some light at the end of the tunnel? who knows but as D:ream- sang Things can only get better

I'm just reporting it as I see it, don't think that's straw clutching.

Thought you might like to see my tadders from two weeks ago - I expect they'll be hopping about now. I'm going to have a look at the weekend. The first one is in the main lake, and the other two are in the smaller overflow pond. I love the way they hang on to sticks and leaves floating in the water with their mouths.

Not seeing it myself. Steepening lapse rates hooking in to the SW later in the afternoon, CAPE is meagre, high PWAT. I'd go for some heavy bursts of rain with maybe the odd rumble mixed in the heavier ppn. I'd like to be wrong, but I can't envisage anything severe?

Just as an example to show how the Gefs 6z mean improves as we go further into July, here are the mean charts for this week and then further ahead and they do show a gradual improvement over time. I'm hoping I will have the opportunity to post some fantastic mean charts in the not too distant future! :- )

There hasn't been a day with a max below 17°C, or a night with a min below 12°C or month, and I doubt there will be either now. For my location at least then it hasn't been that bad at all. Yes, a few rainy days but this is Britain, it's what happens, get used to it. I would hate to live in Spain, the same thing every day, boring. Variety and unpredictability is what the British weather is all about, and we should grasp it with both hands. The best thing about it is you never know what's around the corner. :-)

No appreciable change with the ecm or the ext EPS this morning. We are still locked into the LP over the Pole, trough UK and ridging eastern Europe scenario in the 6-10 period so unsettled and cool. Still much the same in the ext. period.

Looks like this summer is following the well-trodden path of the past few. The plume always forecast in 3-4 days time fails to materialise or gets batted into the Continent by yet another bloody trough.

Here's my photo for the photo competition!

Let me explain, late Tomorrow across the Far SW, there looks be 200-300 J/Kg of CAPE, over run by 60kts of DLS, along with strong SRH, with the trigger being the low pressure system, yet no models suggesting any storm developments, and I lack professional storm knowledge. But it's just my opinion. Thus Significant Tornado Parameter is high too. (The Map below shows current projections in my amateur opinion. Green = Marginal Risk, Grey = Potentially Severe, yet very marginal) I'll update later on my Twitter and here.

Definitely a very complex setup tomorrow in my eyes, got my eye over far SW late tomorrow, for some embedded organised storms. Interesting...

I'm willing the Azores high to start ridging in towards mid July or sooner, again there are hints from the GEFS 6z mean that the trough domination will eventually weaken considerably with more chance for high pressure to gain the upper hand....I hope so, for this summer's sake!

These troughs are an effing nuisance ain't they..attracted to the UK like flies to dog doodo on the Gfs 6z op BUT it does look more settled for a time in the south early next week and the run ends with high pressure ridging in from the west so at least it's better than yesterday's equivalent poop fest!

Did I say it was right? All I'm doing is keeping people who want to know what the models are currently showing.. updated!

At least it's warmer in Espana

Yes hopefully those Gefs hints will grow and the second half of this summer will be much better than the first half, I guess after this upcoming cool trough fest, the only way is up!

At last there are hints from the Gefs 00z mean that the Azores high will become more influential towards mid July which is interesting because it's around mid July when the met office say there is a possibility of the weather becoming more settled and warmer from there..and the models are almost in that range now! :- )

Think tomorrow afternoon/evening will be interesting, very active cold front moves through with frequent heavy showers/thunderstorms after moving through fairly quickly, will be interesting to see what occurs.

Yeah, the top of it looked just like a supercell (although we know it wasn't)! Lovely pics anyway.

Cant seem to find the post from Supercell to quote but yeah I just noticed that whilst having a little look ahead on GFS Not a vast area currently but will see what happens in the upcoming runs. Noticed a post saying that it would be it for convective weather for a while but that isn't necessarily the case. The more far forward you look the more likely things change and the next thing you know there is another potential convective day. Can say that through experience although at times there can be a long period of quietness, best to take it a couple of days at a time.

The Gfs 6z op run was a vile trough fest and for a while I thought the 12z would be equally foul but later in Fi high pressure builds in and brings summery weather, especially to southern areas. :-)

Thank you! That storm in the first one was easily the most explosive of the lot. It was a big bubbly mass when I first saw it but then in the next twenty minutes or so after that, it exploded into the anvil you see there. Sadly couldn't get a good view of what was going on at the base. I didn't pay a great deal of attention to this thread yesterday but it seemed to be part of a squall line, pictured below. The one you mentioned was just to the right out of frame.

Yes it's a rather cool outlook although the south should reach 22c 72f tomorrow but generally that figure won't be reached much if at all, at least further north because it looks changeable / unsettled for the next few weeks BUT there remains a possible pattern change around mid July to summer weather with warm and fine conditions spreading to most of the UK and a chance of more humid thundery spells, at least across the s / se.. so there is still hope for the second half of this summer. : - )

Are you serious? I've never actually heard you predict a warm summer...and I'm pretty sure you were a long way wide of the mark regarding winter. If you predict something enough, you will eventually be right.

And if I can whisper the forbidden words - Grand Minimum (ducks for shelter)

I have to say whoever it was showed exceedingly bad judgement when in their heart of hearts they knew you are always right.

The previous decade 97-06 had closer to average temperatures and sunshine than the last one 07-15. The BBC don't add an degrees to their forecast. It just happens to be 1-2c warmer than most other southern cities. With an average high of 23.5c, temps of 18-22c are poor.

Just got back from a storm chase with a friend of mine. Milton Keynes and the surrounding areas got an absolute pounding! Spectacular cloud formations in all directions for the entire evening. I think the cell in the second and fourth pictures spawned a wall cloud. Couldn't see any rotation as it was very distant but it was changing shape quite rapidly in places. That was the one that bought all the rain around 9pm. Absolutely insane. Never experienced rainfall while being in a car like that in years. There wasn't much lightning in the end but still, it was great fun just watching the skies darken and the rain moving across the fields.

Quite a potent storm about 5 miles away about 1/2 hour ago over SE London with a lot of fast rising motion in the updraft area and was spitting out fairly frequent CGs

12z is another horror show all round. I think everyone better should look away for a few days, because this is about as bad as it gets.

Courtesy of the Icelandic met, here's the archived ECM chart for that afternoon. other parameters also - national maps at bottom of the page. http://brunnur.vedur.is/kort/ecm0125/2012/06/28/12/ ESWD reports from the event. http://www.eswd.eu/queries/675016.html

Results as promised Monthly winner As mentioned previously, the only person to get it right was Evening thunder Seasonal winner and results The top 3 in the Spring 16 competition were Roger J Smith in 1st. Man With Beard in 2nd and davehsug in 3rd. Overall Latest positions The top 3 stay the same but with a slight change in order. Roger J Smith in 1st, Evening thunder (from 3rd) Don (from 2nd) May 2016 CET New.pdf May 2016 CET New.xls Stats There was a massive negative correlation this month at -0.48, which each subsequent quartile of entries doing better with the 3rd and 4th quartiles scoring 62 and 64 receptively, So the later entries did much better this month. It is also noticeable that the later entries also went for a higher average CET figure. May 2016 CET New.pdf May 2016 CET New.xlsx