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Found the GWO plot; It's crunch time! The model has to be plain wrong for us to escape La-Nina territory, which seems a bit of a stretch, but whether we stay in that region or see a recovery through 3/4/5, that is the question. The way the op runs keep bringing lows in from the northwest is based on the assumption that GLAAM will plummet, then plummet some more. Off the scale, in fact. Not even the biggest positive El Nino-driven AAM boosts of the past winter were able to get it off the scale on this plot. Tomorrow's update is greatly anticipated - will we enter negative AAM territory and if so, by how much? The outcome will be very telling!

Whoa I'm not an expert like John and would never claim to be Frosty. John was a seniot forecaster for many years and I was just one of the jobbing gardeners who supplied the information so he could cock the forecast up.

25C is perfectly fine when you haven't got the added burden of the mid June sun beating down on you or if you can just laze about all day. I personally find anything above about 25C too much when you need to do any physical exertion, however. I was a sweaty mess when I got to work after a brisk walk in the other day- my back was soaked. Don't see how anyone can find that comfortable.

Really not much difference to the GEFS anomalies to previous runs with the upper trough over the UK declining from around the 18th which briefly allows ridging from the Azores which soon gives way to a westerly flow with a trough to the NW. Ergo back to unsettled weather from the west which maybe more relevant to the NW with the south prone to the better weather/ As maybe suggested by the ecm ops.

I suspect IF you lived in this area your perspective would be different. Winds from the N Sea, much as today, at best, give a sunny afternoon after an overcast morning. Possibly not too different if you get a westerly with moist low level air. It is best to stear away from the above type of comment Chris as each area of the country has its good and bad points. To the models, well the anomaly charts as ever from me, 6-14 days? Not much sign of any long lasting warmth from them with an upper pattern that suggests some unsettled weather at times, some drier intervals with warmish sunshine also and the best of this as one might expect for the SE quarter or one third of the UK. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php As you can see from the links (which will update as a 'new' outpit is issued, shows the upper air pattern for the 6-14 day period. All 3 much the same pattern and have been for a couple of days so it will be unlikely that the upper air pattern is going to be much different in that period. Of course they are predicted averages so on one day in a run of this we will see temporary variations. At T+72-120 the synoptic models should show these variations, not conclusively but as T+00 approaches they will converge on the actual pattern for that time. Also detail on sunshine amounts, temperatures and rainfall totals, be that frontal or convective will also start to converge on the actual weather on any one day. Trying to predict just where a storm will occur is best left to radar watching with a general outlook from those who specialise in this sort of thing.

I was in California and Nevada in April, and daytime temperatures typically reached 25/26C. However, due to the very low humidity in the arid/desert climate, it was far more pleasant than what we have had here recently, in similar daytime temperatures. Its been a bit unusual that the NW of England has probably been the warmest place in the country so far in June, and the heat has built up over days, with little cooling at night. Indoor temperatures are as warm as I can remember them being in a long time. I pretty much never have trouble sleeping, yet a few nights ago the heat got to me and I was still awake at 4am. That's unusual, for me. I guess in the NW we are used to short lived warm spells, punctuated with cooler ones, yet it's been very warm for a solid week now. I work outdoors in a physical job, and whilst I wouldn't say it's been too uncomfortable or unbearable recently, it really does take it out of me afterwards. I feel drained after work when the weather is as warm as this.

Very well put,some people just have no tolerance over how other people react to various types of weather. They are right and that's it. A very strange way of expressing themselves in my opinion.

Not hot? Being exposed to the June sun with temps of 26C would feel hot unless you are a skinny rake or have a circulation problem.

Most of us in this country are happy in 18C-20C in Summer clothing (some of us, myself included, are fine even in the low teens in Summer clothing). As you said, for most of the rest of the world, this is exceptionally cool for the time of year. They'd all be wearing jumpers and sweaters in such temperatures. So actually, perhaps we're the tough ones? Can I please request that you tone it down a little, your aggressive posts are becoming rather tiresome.

Love the Model output discussions. Been following it for years. Thanks for everyone's input. Learnt so much from this thread. Back to model discussion.

James inadvertently showed a plot from the last day of May but it does highlight how the forecast fall has been postponed over the last week - is it finally going to drop like a stone now? The full ensemble suite in good agreement but have been likewise for just over a week. Dr Ventrice's suggestion of a 2010 analogue is an interesting one as it is a better fit than '98 where the upper atmosphere did not get the jolt of a dramatic early final warming and the Arctic ice was in a healthier position. Although 2010 saw a rapid swing to Nina conditions in mid summer, the basin profiles are quite different this year. Tropical Atlantic was like a bath tub and the current very positive PDO was not in evidence. If I remember correctly, 2010 was not a record breaker for ice loss in area but it made news in that the volume of ice saw very big losses. Another year with a very distorted summer jet profile.

There was a discussion here that might help. It is quite a complicated subject. https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/84150-jet-stream-question/

If you like Time-lapse video then you like this from Yesterday afternoon i'm no expert in making these but first one. A bit of Thunder at the end.

Does look almost certain that AAM will fall off the cliff (finally) over the next 2 weeks. In the meantime a more generally unsettled weekend coming up,and if the first front doesn't get you,one of the other four will!

Certainly an unsettled outlook into Wk2 from this evenings GFS, As Low pressure systems move in off the Atlantic aided by a strong Jet over or South of the UK.

A myriad of factors really including how we've been unlucky with the ENSO switch over time wise over the past few years.

Really hoping this week is the warmest spell here this Summer, max temps in the teens are much more comfortable for being out and about in, next week is going to feel heavenly to me and most other people. Can't wait for Autumn and then the best season Winter, even the mildest Winters are alot cooler than this week.

I don't particularly want the frontal rain all the cooler temps, but if it'll give me some thundery showers as well as some sunshine then I will take it, especially as this current setup has failed to deliver. If this pattern repeats again later in the month I won't be complaining though.

People in the east who were stuck under cold cloudy skies last week will be getting their violins out for you!

A nice cool down over the next week or so with some much needed rain. Fresher!

I was just looking through the UK CAPE+lifted index chart and the last one shows this.... This would be so awesome if it actually happened

Then I'm afraid that you are wrong. Anything above about 15c is "too warm" and anything above 20c is "too hot" for my personal comfort. I do not tolerate heat well at all and I have experienced temps from sub Arctic to desert and I know which I prefer. We are all different.

Let me get this very straight,my job entails working in conditions you would never ever be able to cope with,i have to be timed at certain sites entrance and exit due to health and safety,my working day is obviously so much more extreme than your comment stressed flower is way off the mark. I have to take salt solutions on 3 customers sites!! Suspect your job is very desk bound and not in anyway physical!

Are you kidding? Max temps in the teens in Summer is comfortable?? It's not Alaska! I really don't understand how people can find low to mid 20's 'hot' or 'uncomfortable', unless doing hard work outdoors. You might find it nice next week but I doubt the vast majority of normal people will.

*sigh*....contact me via pm if you have an issue with my posts and not here..........for the record, I didn't agree with your earlier post because I think it was inaccurate at that time, simples

I'm sorry William but there does not look much chance of storms tonight or tomorrow in the SW. NMM keeps the instability out in the Channel and GFS builds just a small amount of CAPE further north around the Midlands tomorrow, but even here it is very little and wouldn't likely lead to much thundery activity. Best chances look to be from Sunday onwards now.

Nothing really stands out from my pov, maybe the odd rumble in isolated heavy showers..

Just S of me....literally by about under 10 miles. Could see the pitch black skyline....was livid but I'm used to it now. They literally weakened as they passed here then reinvigorated into a beast!

The long term signal remains promising from late June into July with high pressure building in across the south bringing warmer and increasingly sunny weather across the southern half of the UK and probably then extending to the rest of the UK according to the MO. The Gfs 6z op run shows trough domination next week with a very showery spell, many of them heavy with hail and thunder, sometimes merging into longer spells of rain but with sunny spells too. During low res, a ridge of high pressure builds across the uk with a welcome break from the unsettled spell. The current thinking is after the showery trough eventually fills towards the end of next week, a nw / se split will develop with the northwest of the UK remaining generally unsettled and the best of the fine and warmer weather across the s / se.

Then I take you up frosty. In this area we had 8 consecutive days with dull, overcast or at best cloudy starts, From Monday 30/05 with a max of 18.6C then the highest to the 3rd of June was 18.7C and on 4 of those days it never exceeded 14C, hence my comment.

Can confirm there was rotation under this cell with short time lapse Shows the torrential rain coming into Birmingham and reveals some rotating up drafts over the Black Country.....the rotation at the end of the time lapse was over towards you Stormguy

Agree,in my opinion next week won't be as tiring and more comfortable but it is summer and many people do enjoy low to mid twenties so long as they aren't doing any physical work. There is a huge difference in a work day and a non working day when higher temps/humidity is involved I find,but it's a individual thing and one cap does not fit all by any means! Likewise regarding the autumn,my favourite season by far but a heck of a lot of people depend on the summer months for their living.

.......and back to the model output discussion please

15.5c to the 8th 2.0c above the 61 to 90 average 1.9c above the 81 to 10 average

It was me who said the Constant sunny days are boring and I standby that. I'm sure many of my fellow convection fans would agree with me. It's okay to an extent but when it's sunny for days on end you just want some action. I'm looking forward to next week for that reason.

Yes but he said most of the UK has had disappointing weather. It was very warm and sunny in the western half of the uk last week, someone on here even complained about it being boring because it was too sunny!!! I've been looking at the BBC forecasts and they have shown widespread 24/25/26 c with lots of sunshine since last Saturday...hardly disappointing, and its still very warm today! Some people are never satisfied!

Phew, nice to see someone agrees with me! I was beginning to think this very warm spell was a figment of my imagination...and last week it was very warm and sunny on the western side of the UK. Hopefully we will have a major heatwave or 3 this summer with 30+ celsius

A lot is riding on the AAM recovering after the current falling trend rather than transitioning to full La Niña state with the Azores High pulled back west. Has anyone got the latest GEFS outlook for the GWO? I'm on my phone and can't seem to locate my usual resource. Cheers. The repeated trend toward the Azores High nosing in later in recent GFS runs gives some cause to hope that the AAM might recover.

It is looking like a very convective period of weather coming up, particularly so from Monday right the way through the week! The jet will be in play across S England in particular so the potential for some severe convective elements here. Could be an exciting week I think.

Just looking at the NMM run for Friday, wow is all I can say!

A general overview of the GFS this morning. As known the low pressure moves in from the west tomorrow and the ensuing slack area of low pressure remains in situ over the UK all of next week.Time for the trite giving outbreaks of rain, perhaps thundery, interspersed with sunny intervals. One thing of interest it does develop a low central Europe and wings it up to the Baltic. This not totally at odds with the GEFS anomaly which is dissipating the upper trough around the 18th and builds a ridge from the SW

It may be common in London but away from the SE corner it becomes less so. And anyway recently we have had higher temps than London and a lot more sun which has really heated up the house. To have a very warm house for days on end is not normal here. The temp is currently 24C in my bedroom & has been for about 4 days now - for most normal people that sort of temp is hard to sleep properly in without waking up sweating or a headache. There hasn't been much of a breeze lately here either so even with the windows open I am unable to aerate the property. Personally I am not a lover of fans as I think all they do is blow the warm air around, they don't actually drop the indoor temp.

A really odd sort of day, started slowly as they say then convection kicked off in afternoon and it cleared in the late afternoon

Know exactly what you mean markyo, I've been scrubbing and cleaning all day today with the windows and doors wide open, and in this heat it's been really quite unpleasant. This sort of weather really isn't fun when doing anything physical. It's not just us who are ultra-soft freaks of nature markyo as some may try to make us believe, people in the local area here have been complaining a lot on social media about the lack of sleep and heat over the last couple of days. The temperature in my room hasn't dropped below 24C in days, horrible!

Yes, not my kind of weather at all. Hay fever problems galore and quite uncomfortable to do anything in. Hopefully it won't continue all Summer.

Banging headache,can't stop sneezing(even with tablets),wonder why summer is not my season. Very humid today more so than yesterday where i was,really can't wait for this crap to go. Does nobody any good at all if they have to work in it. Every single customer i've been to for the last 2 days has complained how uncomfortable it is so it's not just me being a old fart who bangs on about how he hates the heat!!

A hive of activity down at the lake this morning. As you can see so far only one signet has been losted (fingers crossed) so still six and two from another nest who are younger. And Sidney got into a spot of bother

Tour 4 will now end in Winnipeg.

I'm not sure whether it's down to 'age', but I suspect it is: In 1975 and 1976, I was playing badminton and tennis in temperatures above 32C and had no problems whatsoever. But, since returning from Scotland, in 2010, even 22C is too hot! Then again, I can go shopping wearing only jeans and a tee-shirt, when it's only 10C, and feel quite comfortable!

15.2c to the 7th 1.7c above the 61 to 90 average 1.6c above the 81 to 10 average