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Down camber watching what's out in the channel. Lightning dying out somewhat for now, had a nice double cg a while back. Lightning is very orange, almost what I'd class as red in colour. Only have phone camera, which is terrible at night. But here's a picture. Yes.. Definitely poor quality, but you get the idea

Top of the Preston storm from my bedroom at least 30 miles away

I was invited out for dinner tomorrow evening but couldn't find the right words to say "sorry thanks but I don't want to miss the thunderstorms that may or may not happen" so I said I was "busy"

This clouds been growing for a while now looking pretty good at this point

No, wasn't directed at you. But this is a recurring theme every year: some being critical of one's views or forecasts without accurately capturing what has actually been said, and not even providing reasoning of their own to form a counter argument if they don't agree with that view or forecast. One can say there looks to be a somewhat heightened risk of storms in relation to the previous day, and some will read that as 'showers and storms very likely and numerous', then say the forecast was 'hyped up' when very little happens.

Really cool pic from Tim Peake, not sure if that was a storm or not but it looks beautiful and it makes the UK look quite small.

I agree. That's one very clean fence!

The Mother's finished mowing the lawn (again) and she always seems to think that once she's cut it, there usually is a little bit of rain that follows. So she asks me to find out... The Mother: "Is there any rain due, Dale?" Me: "Let me check" ... ... Me: "Only a little, Mother." *shows her the pic* (^_^)

After the frustration of the last few days of isolated potential, I think Tuesday may yield more widespread potential of seeing a storm, and storms that maybe more productive in terms of hail and lightning. Tuesday sees more upper forcing arrive from the Atlantic as a trough in the mid to upper flow moves NE. The trough shows nicely as a SE-NW strip of enhanced vorticity on 500mb level, PVA ahead of this creating forced ascent aloft. This upper forcing combined with surface convergence should more widely erode the cap holding a 'loaded gun'of quite high CAPE values as richer moisture returns from near continent and is heated in the sun. Could be isolated large hail in the stronger storms given large CAPE values indicated. High pressure builds back in at the surface across the south on Wednesday, so storm potential perhaps reducing here.

Who has said "..tomorrow looks to be a lot better", Ben? Not sure who you are referring to, but, speaking for myself, I don't do hope when trying to gauge likelihood of storms occurring. I look at the data that's available to me and form an opinion. Today does indeed look like it will have a little more in the way of showers and storms, despite the unfavourable pattern aloft, where good instability is situated over places of good elevation, and with defined sea-breeze and land CZs setting up to attempt to release this potential energy. If you don't see any difference in today's risk on yesterday's, or tomorrow's on today's, provide your reasoning as to why you think that is so.

I am really quite hopeful about tomorrow. Stuck at work until 5:30pm but it looks like things may go on into the evening hours and not a million miles away from here either. Could I be on the verge of my first night time storm of the season?

Not too sure if this counts it is even the type of cloud your after, took it because it was unusual the updraft seemed to climb then the blanket formed on top and it then began to flatten out. This was on the Preston cell.

Skies are becoming more unstable to my se, probably over towards Manchester and the Pennines. its been a toasty day here still 28c now according to my app, not sure how accurate it is but it's been gorgeous today not a cloud in the sky all day.

Just glancing at a couple of hi-res models, it looks like some lucky Welsh folk will possibly get to see some lightning as the light fades this evening. Today's t-showers are one up from yesterday, and tomorrow's likely to be one up on today's.

That is some fairly impressive CAPE for any storms to tap in to over the next few hours...

Some rumbles heard from the cell over Cardigan bay. Getting more than our usual share at the moment....

The anomaly charts are rarely far out when all 3 are showing very similar charts. They are doing that and have trended to this over the past 2-3 days. So yes, the idea of less warm and more unsettled type weather from 6 days out, possibly starting at day 5 and out to day 14 or so seems the form horse. Not unsettled all the time, spells of warmth and some sunshine between systems crossing the country with the emphasis on longer dry and more sunshine and warmth likely for the southern third of the UK. Beyond two weeks? I'll leave that to others. http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Sky looks very unstable already West of Dublin. Very sticky morning 19c

The Gfs 00z op run shows gorgeous weather across most of the UK up to and including the midweek period with plenty of very warm sunshine but with an increasing risk of heavy showers and thunderstorms, especially tomorrow. Beyond midweek the risk of showers diminishes and becomes restricted to western areas with the south of the UK becoming largely fine with temps still into the low 20's celsius towards the weekend but the northern half of the UK becomes more unsettled from Friday and we all see a change to unsettled Atlantic weather during next weekend. During next week it looks quite cyclonic with a mix of sunshine and heavy showers with thunder but during low res the Azores high starts to ridge towards the UK..so, after a cooler and more unsettled period through mid june with temps around the mid 60's f across southern areas, rather lower further north..it warms up and starts to settle down again with temps into the 70's F..hopefully the Azores high will be our friend this summer!

The weather sucked, especially as we missed a massive hailstorm with 4-6" drifts by a few minutes, but the stars tonight were a decent apology from the sky gods, a handy volcano provided the back drop.

Tell me about it, if the air was any more humid I could hydrate myself off it.. Already feel suffocated

feels mega tropical here right now - only a storm can clear the air and a big one at that would be nice lol

Awesome, I can see the cell in the Channel from here - some form of an orange glowing tower on the horizon which is flashing away nicely!!

Day 2 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 07 Jun 2016 - 05:59 UTC Wed 08 Jun 2016 ISSUED 20:37 UTC Mon 06 Jun 2016 ISSUED BY: Chris/Dan A complicated setup exists on Tuesday with various rounds / potential for thunderstorms through the forecast period. Synoptically, a plume of warm, moist air continues to advect north from the nearby Continent, capped initially by a notable warm nose aloft. However, it is likely that elevated convection will be ongoing Tuesday morning over the Irish Sea into eastern Northern Ireland / extreme SW Scotland, and perhaps also feeding into SE England from remnant overnight convection over France / English Channel - although the extent and amount of lightning activity with this remains questionable. Otherwise, diurnal heating combined with low-level convergence (sea breeze and orographic forcing) with a shortwave trough nudging slowly NE-wards will allow isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop through the afternoon and evening hours, forming into clusters along areas of pronounced wind convergence. DLS is rather weak in the main, leading to fairly disorganised convection, but given slow storm motion, relatively high MLCAPE (700-1100 Jkg-1) and 28-32mm PWAT, any storms that do develop could produce frequent lightning, local flash flooding with rain accumulations of 15-30mm in 1 hour, and hail up to 2.0cm in diameter. Converging low-level winds and rapidly rising updrafts may allow a couple of brief funnels / tornadoes to develop. Storms will gradually decay through the late evening hours, although may still produce lightning well beyond 00z Thursday across the East Midlands / Home Counties. The SLGT over the Home Counties may need to be merged with the SLGT over northern England if confidence continues to increase, along with perhaps the introduction of a MDT - trends will be monitored for this during Tuesday. http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2016-06-07

I think radar watching is the only option for the south and southeast. All good so far - even subtle signs of high level instability here, so I'm quite liking our chances :-)

An updated pic of the cell over Lancashire. 1st Now 2nd half hr ago

Tomorrow late afternoon/evening looks good for the Midlands and maybe even here as the night draws in. However, I will likely be somewhere else.

MLCAPE is not looking too shabby

Things starting to kick off now across the UK which is nice to see. Can see a nice active thunderstorm just north of Ilfracombe, wouldn't mind being there right now. LOL. Just checking out this band of cloud coming in from the SW interacting with this unstable air could lead to elevated thunderstorms for southern coastal areas tonight, that's my thinking, but again I'm not sure about that. I've stayed put today simply because I think most activity will be in Wales and not much further SE. I probably will chase tomorrow especially as NMM and Met Office break out heavy showers/thunderstorms in this area, was hoping I wouldn't have to move but they may be more intense the further east I go, however I doubt I'll be chasing the ones near Salisbury, it'll be getting late. Good luck to everyone this evening, I'm sure with all the reports of unstable looking skies it's about to go bang very quickly!

Just building up to my South East. Even more

Only been put up 6 months ago hehe;), anyway some evidence of possible showers developing to our South across CS England along a convergence line.

The message from the Gfs 6z op run is make the most of the current summery conditions with the very warm sun and potential thunderstorms because from Friday and more especially the weekend onwards, it is set to become generally unsettled and cooler across the UK from the west, the s / se last to see the change but by the weekend / early next week onwards we are all in the same boat, a large trough dominating the BI with heavy showers, some with hail and thunder but also longer spells of rain, however, sunny spells too and temps not bad in the south, mid 60's F but nearer high 50's / low 60's F further n / nw. Unlike the 00z, the unsettled theme persists through to the end of the run and beyond with the best of any fine and pleasantly warm weather across more southern areas...as we know, low res ( T+192 hours onwards) is not to be taken as gospel and we could equally see the Azores high making a bigger impression on the UK after mid June...fingers crossed!

wow again, wales seems to be the new storm capital of the uk.

Thunderstorm and torrential rain here in Bangor, north west Wales

Not according to the Gfs 6z op, it looks unsettled from the weekend onwards, a large trough swings SE over the UK and next week looks cyclonic with sunshine and heavy thundery showers and longer spells of rain with temps down on this week, mid 60's F across the south but progressively cooler further n / nw.

I guess it is time to do a bit of a forecast for the coming week. Tomorrow Light winds, generally from the east. I suspect low cloud will burn back quicker tomorrow with less of a sea track and lighter winds. It looks like a mostly fine and sunny day with just a slight chance of showers in the far west of the region along with the home counties. I suspect the shower activity will be more focussed towards the south west of the country. Temperatures - 23-26C, cooler on the coast, especially Norfolk and Suffolk coasts. Tuesday A slack easterly feed again, early mist and low cloud should quickly clear to leave a sunny morning, showers look more widespread as increasingly warm and humid air moves up from the continent. The chance some potent slow moving thunderstorms in places, Norfolk and Suffolk will probably stay fine and sunny. Temperatures - 24 - 27C with temperatures generally up from Monday. Wednesday A light east to north east wind, the models do suggest a mostly dry and sunny day after mist and low cloud clears again. Temperatures - 24-27C again I think, a touch cooler on the coast. Thursday Light winds again from the east or north east A fine day with sunny spells again, it should stay dry. Temperatures - 22-25C, temperatures falling back a tad as the ridge and warmth is squeezed out slightly. Friday A light south easterly wind. A front bringing showery rain looks to move eastwards during the day though it doesn't look like it will reach us until very late in the day. Temperatures - 20-24C So overall a decent week with only Tuesday offering a chance of rain. Lots of sunshine once mist and low cloud clears each day with temperatures sitting above normal for most away from the coast where onshore winds will temper the feel.

I am not sure if the part in bold was a comment towards me, but I was aware forecasts have already mentioned the scattered nature of storms when/if they develop. I added it to my post to re-iterate this, so that the feature shown on the fax charts was not taken at face value - i.e. not everyone will see something along it.

@Ben Sainsbury Sorry for tag Ben no idea why it keeps doing it, I was on your profile then when I come off it does it??? I know the last few days may have been a little frustrating for people wanting storms, seeing the highlighted areas huge amounts of Cape and some energy up there, all for it not to happen and another day goes by. That's the nature of this beast, it's allusive and one of the most hardest things to forcast for our little island because so many diffrent factors have to come in. (along side dare I say it, snow) On mainland Europe and the states for example it's much easier to forcast storms (although still difficult) and the conditions and general geographicall features are far better.. Nevertheless, the UK gets some great storms and we do sometimes get spoilt (if you like storms) Back to real-time and the conditions do actually improve tomorrow for storms. I been saying Tuesday always had higher chances and the reason being is because these last few days we have had high pressure in charge. We have had to rely on convergence zones and natural geographical (mountains large hills) lift to fire storms. However, tomorrow introduces some lower pressure as a front swings in from the south West. Now, this will aid in getting that spark for storms (not saying it will happen) but it's more fuel for the fire. There is one slight issue though (this is of course England and nothing is straight forward, especially our weather) and that is, it could introduce more in the way of cloud for more western areas. We shall see. Good luck everyone who is looking for a storm, many more chances hopefully this summer Cheers!

Perhaps the 06z fax charts from the Met Office are also worth mentioning, as it shows a surface trough feature moving roughly SE-->NW during today. This may help trigger a higher number of showers when compared to yesterday, but still quite scattered in nature in my opinion.

Liking it! Fingers crossed.

The BBC are certainly stressing a greater risk of convention in the West tomorrow than of today, So that should at least raise some hopes..

I don't understand this community about how yesterday storms were very few and far between and yet everyone was saying "Oh tomorrow looks to be a lot better" and again today we see a lot of storm forecasts indicative of isolated storms and again people say, "Oh tomorrow showers seem to be more widespread". But to me it's annoying where people will say that the following day will be better for storms without valid evidence, almost like false hope, a recurring theme to me. Personally I don't see anything better about tomorrow whatsoever, setup pretty similar to today.

pleasant temperatures not really much in the way of rain execept for the risk tomorrow which is mainly wales far south of england and northern england scotland and even then for most it will be dry so a good week coming up that is until the weekend but no point fretting about that yet

Looks to me like crud, and ideally you want nothing kicking off yet, you will not get the heat required

The cloud melted away very quickly this morning. It's already a totally clear blue sky, and at the moment hardly any breeze. Yesterday it got to 22C in my back garden and the official MetOff station down the road at Wattisham recorded a max of 21C. With sunshine breaking through earlier and (hopefully) not so much of a breeze, it's looking good to better yesterday's effort. Humidity at sensible levels (currently 74%) so it's a comfortable warmth too. The SE corner, particularly Sussex and Surrey, look to be most prone to some heavy showers tomorrow. Arpege suggesting the peak risk around 16.00 whilst NMM goes for slightly later at 18.00. Arpege NMM

Looks like we're nailed on for a pretty disturbed spell of weather coming in from Saturday onwards. How long it will last is the main question. I think weather patterns and modelling may be very hard to forecast this summer with La Nina setting in, and a warm breeding ground for Atlantic hurricanes (which tend to be numerous in La Nina years). I think at the very least we're looking at 10 days unsettled stuff with a fairly strong jet across the Atlantic, with us on the cooler side of things too.

Extreme rainfall in the last 24 hours in Tasmania in a subtropical NE wind, as a low tracks slowly down the eastern seaboard. During Saturday and Sunday there was very heavy falls along the New South Wales coast with flooding. By the end of today a lot of lowland Tasmania will be under flood, especially the agricultural north west. There is a 200mm+daily reading from an AWS in Tasmania's north west - this is quite rare for any region at any time of year. There may be a higher official reading out there from a manual station. The June daily record is 267mm in 1923, a chance that record could go. It is very mild and humid, Hobart appears to have had its warmest June night on record with a low of 15.0C, 0.6C above the old record.

You have just glossed over the fact its been a fine warm weekend for many and it will be warm all through the week ahead with sunny spells...or doesn't that count?!

So IMBY, unbelievable!

Another cracking day here. Down at the lake, I hope I'm not tempting fate here, we still have seven cygnets. They seem to have a daily habit of coming ashore at the same place Having a quick feed on grass with mother keeping a beady on the Jackdaws Having a quick nap before back to the lake. The nest I have watching for weeks did produce two chicks but one hasn't survived. The other looks rather lonely. other matters A great Tit.............the nut and the tongue A couple of butterflies