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Showing content with the highest reputation on 29/05/16 in all areas

  1. This is what we're hoping for... Good heat and moisture advecting from south at sfc/low-levels to build good instability. Negatively tilted upper trough out west and falling heights releasing moderate CAPE. Backed sfc winds and strong and veering winds with height (SW jet winds aloft - follow the 500mb height contours) generating a strongly deep layer sheared environment for severe convective weather. Also just to note, though the figures over France look insane, it's also properly capped on that frame (CINH is like 600-700J/kg lol), so nothing would arise over there. Obviously looong way out, but keeping my eye on late next week and into next.
    7 points
  2. to be fair, W09 doesn't do ramping, he calls it as the model shows and has a good chunk of personal knowledge to enable some pretty accurate forecasting
    6 points
  3. Great isolated thunderstorm that exploded right over Swansea earlier. There was some decent lightning but didn't mange to capture any. Torrential downpours lead to Local flooding in places and some small hail and gusty winds which i managed to capture on camera.
    5 points
  4. I was a bit late for the Ilminster cell, only heard its last few rumbles, but got onto the Quantock cell too I was ahead of it for a bit as it was forming just SE of Taunton and got the few snaps below. I followed it to the Quantocks by which time it was overtaking me as it merged with the other cell on the coast. I parked up in the back edge of the storm and watched, lots of ic flashes tho I didnt see any bolts but I reckon I saw the same 2 cgs! The second one was a big surprise as nearly all the rumbling from ic strikes had disappeared away and I was about to move when it hit, the thunder was incredible! When I did move the lanes were blocked in two places, one of which is in the pic below. Wasnt trying that in a ford Ka! There was still a route out tho thankfully. So glad I made the drive today. The pics are chronological, the first three at 19:02, 19:18 and 19:23 respectively, tho I moved position between 1&2 ofc.
    4 points
  5. Other than today's low isolated risk, bland outlook for the foreseeable. Looks like a week Monday before we might see a change to a more favourable upper 500mb pattern, as a ridge tries to build north over southern/central Europe with upper trough approaching from the west. Recent GFS/ECM outputs signalling at this sort of a pattern for a while, so hopefully something to it. Hope we start to see some proper convective potential soon and none of these marginal days, being as we're heading into summer.
    3 points
  6. Hello, i got some lightning from Friday's storm I captured for anyone interested Was quite happy with the way they turned out.
    2 points
  7. Evening All. Gfs screams thunder storm potential especially for southern Britain by the end of the week........Bring it on!
    2 points
  8. weird looking lonely shower/storm just off the gower - looks very odd lol
    2 points
  9. don't forget there is a dedicated thread for european convective weather discussion....thanks
    2 points
  10. Info packs for our tour 4 guests will be sent out tomorrow
    2 points
  11. August 1995 was hotter, sunnier and drier than August 1976.
    2 points
  12. 2 points
  13. There does seem to be good news for bank holiday Monday, the rain which was predicted to come in during tomorrow might be slower to arrive, in fact some models are keeping the whole of our region dry throughout with temperatures into the low twenties across southern England and London, cooler elsewhere with a stiff NE breeze.
    2 points
  14. 2 points
  15. 2 points
  16. The ecm has the front East Anglia/Brighton 06z on Tuesday.
    2 points
  17. May that Low stall forever onwards!
    2 points
  18. Although a low cloud mess here, some photogenic opportunities to the east. Nice supercell captured by Nicolas Gascard. Write up by Keraunos. http://www.keraunos.org/actualites/fil-infos/2016/avril/orages-16-avril-2016-aquitaine-midi-pyrenees-franche-comte-grele-vent-foudre.html
    2 points
  19. Meanwhile over in Ulm, Germany, it is about to/is explode http://www.wetter.com/wettercom-live/ulm-hotel-blaubeurer-tor/5153f27142774/
    1 point
  20. A view of the rather diminutive shower over mid Wales.
    1 point
  21. Just looked at the bbc website for London to see potential temps for 7 June and even at this range there saying 23/15. Thats a Mean temp of 19c. I hope the warmth increases and spreads north with that greeny high diminishing
    1 point
  22. Lovely blue skies, lower humidity and a refreshing wind. I've been busy in the garden again, love days like this. A roast dinner and the Monaco GP to attend now. Temp: 19°C - Hum: 57% - Dew: 10.2°C - Bar: 1012.94hPa - Wind: NNE @ 8mph, Gusting to 20mph.
    1 point
  23. Yes on Sat24 looks like a small thin line of cloud beginning to form and push eastwards over the Kent area. Surface heating hopefully staying strong over the next few hours so a short chase to dorking or beyond not out of the question if things start to pick up over Sussex. I was wondering if Box Hill might be a good place to head but still think it's too far west for any likely activity. Don't need any more big chase days until there's something significant to expect. Come on summer!!! On a positive note even if nothing happens we get a rather nice sunny BH Sunday out of it down this way, so win-win :-)
    1 point
  24. Nope you're good - just replied. So for the state of play, a slight change - tour 2 is now sold out, but a space has opened on tour 4.
    1 point
  25. Well I am back home in Derby today so no chances for me today. I would not be surprised if the odd heavy shower or storm popped off across southern England today along any convergence zones. As has been said though, nothing like the last 2 days.
    1 point
  26. 1 point
  27. The EPS 850mb chart is still looking at a breakdown of the HP to the north starting around next Sunday with the wind veering southerly as the trough edges in from the west. This then continues thereafter to a more SW regime. temps initially above average but becoming nearer average.
    1 point
  28. and what do you know West Wales looks like it's about to spring to life again
    1 point
  29. Amazing to see the cells springing to life over northern Scotland this morning. 2 hour animation from the radar: (click it to animate).
    1 point
  30. 1 point
  31. Similar start here though like the last couple of days the fog/low cloud has cleared very quickly and the sun is out despite being close to the coast in Rayleigh at the moment.
    1 point
  32. NOAA and ecm anomalies are in agreement vis HP influence through the 6-10 period although the position of the surface high is yet to be determined. The EPS 850mb chart at D10 has it in the North Sea with temps around 10C but obviously this will change. The EPS has the ridge decaying and tracking SE quite rapidly subsequently and by the 10th June the trough is the main player with the winds from the SW and weather more unsettled particularly in the west and north. Not a million miles away from NOAA but a tad more progressive with the trough.
    1 point
  33. Evening. Some footage of the storm over IIminster from my car earlier was quite a few flashes and rumbles before I found a spot to pull over.
    1 point
  34. Lots of high pressure on the ECM ens this evening potentially becoming hot later in the run for the south
    1 point
  35. I didn't me complain in that sense but like you said haha, I thought nowt was gonna happen but it all happened so late again. Sorry for the misunderstanding.
    1 point
  36. The above suggestion seems a logical outcome to me given how unsustainable i consider the current pattern. Either we were going to see retrogression and a horror show or the Pacific was going to inject more energy into the Jet and we were going to see a more traditional N/S pattern which clearly leaves room for a transient hot spell as the high gets pushed east.
    1 point
  37. Week 2 continues to hold interest for me in terms of subtle changes. In this regard it is the models suggestion that we could finally see a strengthening ridge building through Iberia and just to the east of the UK. I say this as we are starting to see patterns emerging at the 7-10 day range where 30C could start to look possible. GFS Winds veering towards the south east with temperatures pushing into the mid twenties. The ens show this possibility as well. ECM ens GFS ens for the 12z Of course this would suggest the chance that eventually the Atlantic trough could get the upper hand but potentially a chance of things improving for eastern areas which could see a rather cool and cloudy week whilst the west is brighter and warmer.
    1 point
  38. High pressure builds in next week the east coast will be cooler with some cloud and or mist keeping temps down if the cloud does break the NE'ly flow will keep it fresher elsewhere it looks fine with the highest temps further west
    1 point
  39. It's been a busy week here at Netweather, putting the finishing touches to our new upgraded radars. Read More Here
    1 point
  40. 12.5c to the 27th 1.4c above the 61 to 90 average 1.0c above the 81 to 10 average
    1 point
  41. Only 3 weeks to go then the nights start getting longer,very happy chappy!! But i suspect in the minority!
    1 point
  42. Going by the models the 1/13 week of Summer is looking dry, sunny and warm(even warmer than the 1/13 Summer of 76). Long may it continue!
    1 point
  43. Been fascinating watching radar over central/northern half of France today. A few clear right moving storms (supercells) on radar, with one recently in the Somme region dropping a tornado (see link below). Also radar image of the cell in question. Even using this radar you can make out the hooking on the SW side of the storm. http://forums.infoclimat.fr/topic/87871-suivi-du-temps-dans-le-nord/?page=10#comment-2724680 As mentioned, was watching all the storms on radar and a few were diving to the right of the mean storm motion vectors, so indicative of supercells. Pretty pleased today has came off how I anticipated. Conditions for severe storms were pretty obvious on NWP outputs in advance, with ideal mix of instability and shear. But sometimes things don't always pan out how one would expect. Supercell in Dijon this evening: From Keraunos' twitter page: https://twitter.com/KeraunosObs?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw. Also made a mention of the (30 degree) deviation in storm track in relation to mean storm motion. Good stuff.
    1 point
  44. My first post here for several years, despite lurking and (hopefully) learning! My partner and I were in Dunning, Perthshire last Sunday (22nd May), and spotted this funnel cloud, with a brief rope, dropping from a dark Cb nearby. There were a few flashes and rumbles, with heavy rain visible towards Perth. Nowt like a bit of local storm-chasing
    1 point
  45. 12.5c to the 26th 1.4c above the 61 to 90 average 1.0c above the 81 to 10 average
    1 point
  46. 12.5c to the 25th 1.5c above the 61 to 90 average 1.0c above the 81 to 10 average
    1 point
  47. 12.6c to the 24th 1.6c above the 61 to 90 average 1.2c above the 81 to 10 average
    1 point
  48. Im hoping the area of HP will move over Central England and lead to some great weather just as in April 2015 and second half of September 2015. Temperatures would respond well and would be around 25c max but a cool 9c at night.
    1 point
  49. WAITING FOR NOCTILUCENT CLOUDS: Every year in late May, noctilucent clouds (NLCs) gather over Earth's north pole where they remain, rippling hypnotically, until the end of Arctic summer. NLCs are, by far, Earth's highest clouds. Seeded by meteoroids, they float in a thin layer ~83 km above the planet's surface. With the beginning of the season upon us, NASA's AIM spacecraft is monitoring the Arctic for signs of electric blue: This is called a "daily daisy." It assembles scans from AIM's Cloud Imaging and Particle Size (CIPS) instrument into an ensemble picture of the Arctic. Noctilucent clouds would appear as wispy filaments criss-crossing the Arctic Circle. You can see the daily daisy updated every 24 hours right here on Spaceweather.com. So far AIM's daily daisy is empty--no NLCs. There has been one ground-based sighting that suggests the season might already be underway. We will know for sure when AIM spots the first Arctic NLCs of 2016 from space. http://spaceweather.com/
    1 point
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