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Showing most liked content on 28/05/16 in all areas

  1. 8 points
    Cell just NW of Brighton recently given out a strike on Atd. Showers moving painfully slowly and seem to die out as they head toward M25/S London. Meanwhile, in France, was some supercells yesterday over central parts, more likely today: http://www.estofex.org/ Doubt many will be chasing in France though, given the fuel shortages
  2. 7 points
    Just driven through and been under a great storm near Ilminster which I chased towards Chard. Some bright lightning, torrential rain, hail and gusty winds. The thunder was very loud too, ground shaking. Worth the effort despite the storm dying quite quickly. More thunder rumbling to my west now :-)
  3. 7 points
    just in reply to the highlighted bit..............I don't agree with this.........the vast majority of the forecasts that I have seen, both on here and also from all of the model output available have shown the potential for a few generally isolated thunderstorms, and this is exactly what's happened so far....in fact, I'd go further and say that there have been possibly more thunderstorms/heavy showers in reality than what was forecasted/modelled............I think you've overplayed the storm potential if I'm honest thus setting yourself for a let down from a totally IMBY perspective
  4. 7 points
    If this doesn't whet the appetite, nothing will!! Bournemouth 3rd July 2015 Epic storm - the world seems to be ending at its peak!! (I had a front seat view of this from the clifftop, but can't take credit for this excellent video)
  5. 6 points
    Well the Sun is rising over Brum.....it will be interesting to see whether any warming of the upper atmosphere, will have any effect on the cells over the city at present
  6. 5 points
    No I don't remember complaining. I was explaining to some of our younger storm chasers about how there are down days with chasing storms. I'm too old to complain about the weather nowadays. I remember I used to get really upset but nowadays I know the next good storm is always just around the corner :-)
  7. 5 points
  8. 5 points
    Oops I just fell asleep waiting for something to happen
  9. 5 points
    Sun making some glimpses now here in sarf London afternoon a cool grey morning so far, so may help pep the heavy showers sporadically drifting north over Kent and Sussex this morning. Not very electrically active so far and they may weaken before surface instability builds this afternoon across southern and western parts. My convective forecast for today - best chance of storms probably west of London again: Storm & Convective Forecast Issued 2016-05-28 08:09:58 Valid: 28/05/2016 0600z to 29/05/2016 0600z DAY 1 CONVECTIVE FORECAST - SAT 28TH MAY 2016 Synopsis Increasingly negatively-tilted upper trough to the west of Europe, with its base moving into western Iberia today, drives a warm and moist S to SWly mid-upper upper flow across western and Central Europe including the UK. A slack pressure pattern exists across the UK and Ireland today between high pressure to the N of the U.K. And low pressure centred just west of Iberia. ... EIRE/N IRELAND, WALES, S ENGLAND and THE MIDLANDS ... Scattered heavy showers and a few elevated thunderstorms will continue to edge slowly north over the next few hours across parts of SE England, slow-moving nature of these showers/storms will lead to localised flooding where they pass. Then as morning cloud breaks up elsewhere by early afternoon, steep lapse rates aloft above a fairly moist boundary layer warmed by the sunshine is indicated to contribute to around 300-800 j/kg CAPE developing this afternoon across the above areas. Weak ascent aloft and surface convergence will likely allow further heavy showers and thunderstorms to develop more widely this afternoon in this zone of instability. Despite weak vertical shear, leading to pulse-type storms, slow-movement of cells may lead to flash flooding locally, also strong updrafts / high cloud tops may allow growth of isolated marginally large hail. Frequent cloud-to-ground lightning maybe an additional hard to outdoor activities. Therefore have issued a MARGINAL risk for severe weather. Storms should fade after dark as diurnal heating supporting afternoon storms wanes. Issued by: Nick Finnis Forecast can be seen here too: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=
  10. 5 points
    I saw that storm from Cardiff - it was like a christmas tree lightning up in the distance!
  11. 5 points
    Morning everyone. Got a view screen grabs from the videos I shot last night of the lightning to are south, although most of the lightning was up in the clouds some strikes were visible. Apologies if the quality isn't great as I'm no expert in editing they were shot on the Nikon D3200 DSLR for anyone interested in what camera they were shot from.
  12. 4 points
    The Quantock cell was a beast Very frequent flashes of lightning, constant thunder and some nice structure. Only saw 2 cg's but they were powerful. Awesome day, so glad I stayed another day
  13. 4 points
    Hopefully this won't be an issue as the high retrogrades it leaves a significant ridge over Europe with the jet moving far another north to clear the UK, The ECM looks very good at day 8-10 Temperatures at day 10 should be into the high twenties by day 10 with temperatures rising further beyond this point, well before the trough starts to gain more influence but again there are signs that we could see our first "hot" spell of the summer coming around the second week of June. That said I prefer the JMA solution as it we get the process developing by next Saturday and hence get a very warm and sunny weekend as opposed to waiting until the following week.
  14. 4 points
    I'm not sure what you're even chasing thin air? Silly antics on mediocre days like this, be patient the right day will eventually come, be patient Will...
  15. 4 points
    I drive fast I was chasing around the area yesterday and didn't have much luck so decided to stay the night in my car so I would be well placed to reach the risk area today.
  16. 4 points
    Saw some distant flashes at around 2am last night from the storms that broke out between Gloucester and Hereford but other than that a quiet night for me. I managed about 2 hours sleep overall in the car. Awaiting the mornings model runs but currently my eyes are on Somerset from around midday. I'll be getting a strong tea and a fry up first though :-)
  17. 3 points
    Lightning detector just went off at 24-40 miles, and then a rumble...
  18. 3 points
    Towers shooting up to my North now.. shame it's hazy, they would make a nice picture. @William Grimsley - I'd sit tight next time, you seem to be chasing them away.
  19. 3 points
    depends how you define near if you mean 164.6 miles to the north then yes
  20. 3 points
    seems to focus today is The SW of england , wales and northen ireland , met office have updated their warnings to included herefordshire and worcestershire and I again seem to be just enough E to avoid them again hopefully today convectiveweather and estofex seem to highlight similar regions for focus as the met office so that appears to be the place to be just so glaid I'm not there good luck for those wanting storms today
  21. 3 points
    I remember watching the Bournemouth pier cam and being amazed by the lightning.. some strikes were really close, and people were just walking around like nothing was happening LOL. Who knew that those storms that started off the south coast would go on to move 300 or so miles over the country, into the North Sea and then towards the Dutch coast. https://www.lightningmaps.org/blitzortung/europe/index.php?bo_page=archive&bo_map=6&bo_hour_from=18&lang=en&bo_year=2015&bo_month=07&bo_day=03&bo_hour_from=18&bo_hour_range=10&bo_animation=1#bo_arch_strikes_maps_form
  22. 3 points
  23. 2 points
    weird moment when your local storm looks like a scissors shaped crab
  24. 2 points
    Certainly is chucking out some lightning here now. Frequency of around 1 every 15 seconds or so. Good thunder too Lightning activity just starting to ease up as of 21.50. Very heavy rain though and the main core of torrential rain to my south east isnt moving very much. Flooding could well be an issue
  25. 2 points
    A nasty storm again just to the east of me in Chard again today. Seems to be intensifying too. Frequent lightning and booming thunder. 2 storms in a day.......what are the chances!
  26. 2 points
    I can confirm the rain Daniel saw in London as there was a few light showers when I was in London, the afternoon was much better as the high cloud (Probably shower debris from the continent) cleared away leaving sunny spells and some fair weather cloud. Very hazy though.
  27. 2 points
    The wind has dropped here, and everything is going up! Dark to my North, and slightly to my South, whether anything develops further is open to debate.
  28. 2 points
    Week 2 continues to hold interest for me in terms of subtle changes. In this regard it is the models suggestion that we could finally see a strengthening ridge building through Iberia and just to the east of the UK. I say this as we are starting to see patterns emerging at the 7-10 day range where 30C could start to look possible. GFS Winds veering towards the south east with temperatures pushing into the mid twenties. The ens show this possibility as well. ECM ens GFS ens for the 12z Of course this would suggest the chance that eventually the Atlantic trough could get the upper hand but potentially a chance of things improving for eastern areas which could see a rather cool and cloudy week whilst the west is brighter and warmer.
  29. 2 points
  30. 2 points
  31. 2 points
    It is also worth baring in mind that most forecasts for thunderstorms are only risk/probability based. We really need a proper plume and a decent trigger such as a slow moving cold front/surface trough to see the large storms that cover larger areas in one hit. When it comes to relying on convection from the daytime heating, it tends to be like today - hit and miss and pulse storm affairs (not always though...can get some decent days if things are favorable)
  32. 2 points
    So far this year, according to the NSIDC daily values, may has lost about 13.12% of the April 30th extent. This is already the 3rd largest % loss for May on record, with 2010 having the largest at 14.99%. If we can average a loss of 61.2k/day for the remainder of the month, we'll just about beat the 2010 %.
  33. 2 points
    Sat in a lay-by on A303 near Wincanton, if you see a black Audi its probably me! Lots of convection going on but I think the capping needs to be broken. Still plenty of time yet.
  34. 2 points
    Storm chasing can be disheartening. I could potentially have wasted over 24 hours and about £80 in petrol/food etc if nothing happens. It's part and parcel of the hobby. I have thought about jacking it in a number of times, I kind of feel that way right now. However, there are the good times too, the days where you get the goods. It is still early days today though....still time.
  35. 2 points
  36. 2 points
    THIS IS WHERE NOTHING WILL GO. IM VERY ANGRY RN, nothing near me for over 100 miles
  37. 2 points
    I am guessing showers will probably start around 2pm. However that is a guess based on what happened yesterday. When you go depends on how good you are at sitting in a car waiting. I think its better to get in position ready with easy routes around you but I have currently been waiting since yesterday evening...it can get quite tiring
  38. 2 points
    Min today of 9.1C, with maxima likely to be around the mid 18s, so once again remaining on 12.5C on tomorrows update. After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at: 12.5C to the 29th (13.1: +0.3) 12.6C to the 30th (13.2: +0.1) 12.6C to the 31st (13.9: +0.6) I'd say 12.5 to 12.7C before corrections, 12.1C to 12.7C after.
  39. 2 points
    Brighton looks like it's getting absolutely plastered today with one shower after another . Anyone near there ?
  40. 2 points
    Afternoon all ,yesterday was a great day here in parts of my area [Somerset ] torrential rain and several overhead thunder claps . my garden looked great with loads of bedding plants in bloom ,well now they look tatty and broken as the force of the rain hit them hard ,well lets hope for some action later and perhaps some late evening storms to light up the sky ,heres hoping Gang .
  41. 2 points
    I've got a video of that MCS as it flickered away over the North Sea. Most amazing distant storm I've seen first-hand: (excuse the rotating camera and soundtrack but I had to get rid of my inane narration!) As I recall it went on past 4am! Could still see the atmos flashes from my Dad's place nr Woking
  42. 2 points
    Supacell stayed in Swindon overnight if I'm correct! Nevertheless today looking a great day for storms, working all day today so storms to others!
  43. 2 points
    Great video there Luke. I watched that storm from Southampton, and in terms of lightning activity I've never seen anything like it in this country. I'm thinking of going storm chasing today, hopefully Hampshire region will be in with a shout
  44. 2 points
    Those cells are moving north in roughly my direction, with CAPE across this part of the world due to rocket this morning before retreating westwards through the afternoon. If we are to benefit from any storms it needs to be before 2-3pm I would suggest
  45. 2 points
    Incredibly heavy rain here the past 10 minutes, surprised there's no t+l from it. Did hear a few distant rumbles in the early hours
  46. 2 points
    905mm this month at Mount Read on Tasmania's west coast up to 4pm today ( 225% of the May average ). This will be the second wettest month ever recorded for any location in Tasmania for any month. A few more millimetres to add before the end of the month, but the record - 984mm at Mount Mawson in October 1980 - 90km to the west of Hobart won't be superceded. Mount Read overlooks the small mining town of Rosebery. It is a very isolated area not much traveled by anyone. The end of May has turned a lot colder and drier as winter approaches - but nothing dramatic, and the high sea surface temperature anomalies have abated. Nothing will stop this autumn from being Hobart's warmest in 135 years of records ( by about +0.3C ). This follows on from the third warmest summer in the city ( Tasmania's warmest ) and the equal warmest spring ( Tasmania's second warmest ).
  47. 2 points
    heard a couple of claps of thunder before it died away.. came as close as Rotherwas (maybe a mile or two south east of there by the looks of the strikes scanner). tho there was a stray strike around ledbury which my sister commented on (mainly because it made her jump outta her skin and she had to wake me up to tell me about it). other than that looked like the rest headed up to Worcester.
  48. 2 points
    Probably a bit far now for me to get. I am south of Swindon pinning all my hopes on the cell north of Southampton :-)
  49. 2 points
    Popped down to the lake after my daily dressing change and much to my surprise the first cygnets have arrived. seven of them. There must have been another nest as the pen is still sitting on the nest I've been watching. I hope some of them survive and don't go the same way as little moorhen chick this morning who was eaten by a herring gull. Mind they are slightly bigger and the parents are quite protective. Mind there isn't much one can do about the gulls. Anyway a few snaps. All aboard And Sidney is in fine fettle And this little fella did three circuits before taking a nut.
  50. 2 points
    My first post here for several years, despite lurking and (hopefully) learning! My partner and I were in Dunning, Perthshire last Sunday (22nd May), and spotted this funnel cloud, with a brief rope, dropping from a dark Cb nearby. There were a few flashes and rumbles, with heavy rain visible towards Perth. Nowt like a bit of local storm-chasing