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Had a great view of that storm that passed by Milton Keynes last night. Lots of lightning and nearly constant thunder for quite a while. The skies afterwards were spectacular too. Took these ones from Whaddon, a really nice little bit of countryside just around the corner from MK. Great place for watching storms, although I probably wouldn't be standing by those power lines if there was one right overheard! Fingers crossed for more!

Well,didn't get a storm again today but came close and i will not moan as it's still early days yet what i did take advantage of though was some nice clouds to be had for taking pics of this little cb shooting up early this afternoon(zoomed in) to become a nice shower half our later and to my southeast another half hour later this scud become some type of wallcloud within minutes which i found was the most dramatic part of the day and to finish off,a couple more panoramic views of the same shower if you don't get the storms,get the pics

The polar vortex is strongly correlated with low surface air pressure and low surface air temperatures, so the relatively high temperatures certainly contributed to the lack of a strong polar vortex last winter. January also had an exceptionally negative Arctic Oscillation (high pressure over the North Pole) which also contributed. It raises an interesting question, if we're into an era of ridiculously warm Arctic winters, will the reduced polar vortex reduce the tendency for cyclogenesis and rampant westerlies? It didn't really work that way last winter, especially the exceptionally south-westerly-dominated November and December.

Eyes for Friday and Saturday, looking real good!

Heres the video of the last two bits of lightning and thunder from the storm, was going every few seconds at one point. Not bad for a may storm.

Summary would perhaps be, better the further NW one is in the 144-168 hour period? This summary from me seems the most likely 6-10 day pattern nicely illustrated by NOAA 6-10 below. http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php Much as Singularity quoted in his 1st paragraph shown below for the detail at the surface, still to be decided Growing support for a powerful ridge in our vicinity. Many (not all, I'm afriad) longer range products seem to indicate the upper levels of the troposphere lending strong support to a surface high centred somewhere in our part of the world as we head on into June.

Lone supercell riding the OFB ... for now! Just a question of waiting for things to fire further west

A slow moving outlook, with a NE airstream dominating - the opposite to the normal westerly patttern, but not unusual for the time of year, indeed such synoptics are more likely to occur now than at any other stage of the year, helped in large part by a reduction in thermal temp contrasts between the azores and the arctic - hence we often see a weak ineffectual jetstream but conversely depending on where it sits, we can stay stuck under slow moving weak shallow low pressure systems and trough features that take an eternity to fizzle, much as is shown in the next 24-36 hours where a very weak trough/front feature will sit in situ over N England and simply fizzle away - quite unusual.. Bank Holiday weekend will see a NW-SE split, and again departure from the norm, the NW will see the driest sunniest weather and in sheltered western parts temps will be very good indeed. East coast set to suffer with cool cloudy conditions, but it does look mostly dry. Much will depend on how the euro trough behaves, it may bring some light patchy rain to some SE parts but most likely will aid convection and some hefty showery localised downpours. Early June looking very pleasant overall away from eastern coastal parts, plenty of dry quiet weather, temps average or a little above, but some cool nights. A good time to book a holiday to western scotland. Synoptical patterns at this time of year are often very different to those come the second half of the summer, when the NW-SE flip often occurs with often the poorest conditions reserved for the NW. There is a reason why Scotland starts its summer holidays 2-3 weeks earlier than England.. we in Cumbria should do the same.. mid May - early July is by far more likely to deliver settled conditions than mid July-late August in the NW quarter of the country thanks to less likelihood of the dreaded southwesterlies - an airstream that brings no good fortune to such parts.

Corey Inmon has been driving round that cell for hours, as fast as he can to try to get some rotation going.

Growing support for a powerful ridge in our vicinity. Many (not all, I'm afriad) longer range products seem to indicate the upper levels of the troposphere lending strong support to a surface high centred somewhere in our part of the world as we head on into June. The big question is, can the low heights over Europe ease away to allow the ridge to settle over the UK by the end of the first week? In such a scenario there's some scope for a particularly dry period of a fortnight or so, hopefully warm too. It's been a long time since things last worked out that way, though!

If one compares the overall pattern shown on GFS and ECMWF 00z runs today for 144 and 168h they are neither of them that far from the anomaly output this morning for EC-GFS, see below. Remember the 500mb charts are for 500mb and the others show the surface isobars. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php The NOAA view is less cyclonic in appearance last evening than the EC-GFS this morning. Summary would perhaps be, better the further NW one is in the 144-168 hour period?

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON TUESDAY MAY 24TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure lies to the North of the UK with a chilly NNE flow over the east of the UK and a less fresh flow further west. A trough of low pressure will move west from Europe into Eastern and some Northern areas. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND/OR FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level and snow forecast is now suspended until the beginning of October. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Some thundery rain or showers at times but plenty of dry and fine weather too this especially in the North. Occasionally warm in the South. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream is expected to feature largely to the South of the UK over the next few weeks. It features in a cyclonic form around Low pressure to the South and SW later this week and over the Bank Holiday weekend this easing out only slowly through the second week as High pressure re-develops to the North and then West of the UK sending a flow South over NW Europe on it's Eastern flank at the end of the period http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows Low pressure forming to the South and SW of the UK and High pressure to the North becoming the driving forces within the UK weather over the coming weeks. The situation develops over the next few days as an Easterly flow develops with some reasonably warm conditions but with an increasing risk of thundery showers first in the South from the end of the working week. Low pressure from Europe then becomes the driving force as it moves up into the South of the UK for a time before High pressure rebuilds to the NW and pushes the low pressure areas in the South away East and SE leading the UK falling under a cool Northerly flow by the end of the period with the best conditions then likely to be in the West. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif GFS CONTROL RUN The Control Run shows a very similar sequence of events with some day to day differences between this run and the Operational only making marginal differences at the surface maintaining a largely showery theme across the South with quite warm conditions for a while before the same shift of High pressure out into the Atlantic late in the period opens the door to the North for cool and showery weather to affect the UK as we move deeper into June. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The clustering today continues to show quite a muddly pattern with the bias looking like High pressure lying to the West or SW with a NW flow across the UK with varying degrees of influence of Low pressure towards the North and NW. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows the North and NW the best place to be over the coming 5 days or so as High pressure lies close by to the North. Here there will be a lot of dry and fine weather. The further South one travels would see the risk of thundery showers increase with the weather slowly turning cooler later in the weekend as the North and NE wind increases across the South and East as the pressure gradient increases across the South. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show High pressure to the North over the next 5 days with troughs of Low pressure straddling the UK over the weekend, all rather weak but significant enough to promote some showers to develop across the South, some thundery in increasingly warm and humid air. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM The theme of GEM this morning shows High pressure to the North and lower pressure to the South throughout it's 10 day forecast period with the main theme being North and NW being best for sunshine and dry weather while Southern areas see a risk of thundery showers at times in occasionally warm and humid conditions. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM keeps High pressure to the North too with the same risk of thundery showers in the South lasting up to the middle of next week when the showers could ease due to High pressure edging closer up to the South as well. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM today is maintaining the pattern of High pressure to the North strengthening next week with Low pressure to the South throughout. With that High pressure to the North strengthening the pressure gradient over the South is shown to increase next week making the rather warm and humid air across the UK at the weekend feel rather fresher but never removing the risk of thundery showers edging up from Europe at times right out to the end of the run. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 10 Day mean Chart from last night shows the UK still in very slack conditions at Day 10 as High pressure to the South and North are dissected by Low pressure over Southern Europe and well out in mid Atlantic. The most likely result would be a lot of dry and bright weather with a few showers particularly towards the South and SE.. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There remains no strong desire for the models as a whole to remove Northern blocking High pressure over the next few weeks at least, leading to an East or NE flow being maintained with thundery showers in the South to remain the main theme between the models. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.5 pts with UKMO at 99.4 pts and GFS at 99.2 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.3 pts to UKMO's 96.0 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.6 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.0 pts to UKMO at 86.8 pts and GFS at 85.2 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 58.5 pts to 52.0 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 38.3 pts to 34.7 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS The main patterning that's shown between the models this morning is not an uncommon one for this time of year when parts of Scotland and the NW of the UK can often see the best conditions of their year with some good sunny spells and warm conditions prominent. For this to occur we need High pressure to the North and NW with Low pressure to the South of the UK and that's exactly what will be developing over the coming days, a pattern that once formed may prove to hang around for most if not all of the forecast period covered by the output this morning. So from that changes in the overall patterning will be slow but day to day differences in the weather will be small scale but significant. Firstly I would guess that Eastern coasts adjacent to the North Sea will be subject to cloudy and cool conditions as our old friend 'North Sea Haar' is brought in on a NE breeze. Secondly the warm and humid air drifting over Southern Britain from the continent will promote some heavy and thundery showers at times. These look like ebbing and flowing over the period with the main threat looking to come from an increasing and cooler NE flow next week as the High pressure to the NW of the UK looks like it could strengthen more with showers across the South and East in particular. However, that is just a possibility at this range and there will be plenty of warm and dry weather in the South too over the long weekend with just the risk of thundery showers rather than wall to wall rainfall. So as I've already indicated for the UK it looks like this patterning could be a protracted one with long term changes seeming very slow due to a weak Jet stream and pressure remaining very high towards the Arctic. So with little or no rain in the far NW to some heavy showers elsewhere it may well be that rainfall becomes well below average in the North over the next few weeks with some places in the South too seeing very little if you manage to avoid the scattered downpours. Temperatures should hold up well especially in the West and NW while cooler air could affect the SE later and the North Sea coast looks particularly prone to coolness with onshore winds. Nevertheless I have seen far worse charts for the beginning of June so my advice is enjoy the warmth and sunshine where you can. More from me tomorrow. Next Update Wednesday May 25th 2016 from 09:00

Beaufort Gyre guest blog http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2016/05/alek-petty.html

Had to share this one from Graham, ridiculous lightning shot!

Nice line of heavy, thundery showers, moving south. Right down the spine of the country; in fairness exactly as forecast this morning by the Met Office. Looks like my shower here in Suffolk earlier this afternoon turned out to be a one-off blip. Radar 19.15 Lightening 19.40

Still looking at around the first of June for the next bout of good weather after a brief interlude.

I was thinking that less in the way of rampant westerlies due to a much warmer Arctic would lead to more blocking scenarios full stop. So more Greenies and Barties? Edit: Knocker's post seems sensible.

Shades of Jenifer Francis and highly amplified jet stream patterns. Evidence linking rapid Arctic warming to mid-latitude weather patterns http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/373/2045/20140170 (Open Access)

Indeed, looking rather benign this weekend. Still, only 24 May....looking quite benign into early June, but then for me that's just the start of our storm season proper. If we havent had a decent plume by late June/early July, I start to get a little frustrated. If nothing by late July, I'm in despair mode (lol)

My one from Chase Day 6! I've got one from Chase Day 5 too, but it's in the depths of my computer somewhere! Some epic structure around on Day 6!

I'm inclined to think (any thoughts based on one year's data can only be a guess ) that a weaker PV might allow Euro/Bartlett HP's to become even more entrenched? That ought to go down well!

Done

Min today of 5.7C while maxima look like climbing into the 16s, so a drop to 12.6C is likely on tomorrows update. After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at: 12.4C to the 25th (8.1: -4.4) 12.4C to the 26th (11.2: -1.2) 12.4C to the 27th (13.3: +1.2) 12.5C to the 28th (13.9: +1.6) 12.5C to the 29th (13.6: +0.8) 12.5C to the 30th (12.3: -0.8) 12.5C to the 31st (14.0: +0.7) Close to average for the final week now expected, with a finishing range of 12.3C to 12.9C before, and 11.9C to 12.9C after corrections.

12.7c to the 23rd 1.7c above the 61 to 90 average 1.4c above the 81 to 10 average

Yeah I'm being too vague, purely based on CAPE Projections, more in depth charts coming tomorrow so should be better to examine.

Light early evening showers soon cleared away to leave a dry and mainly clear night. Sunny and almost cloudless so far this morning. At 0800 g.m.t Temp; 11.6c 24 hr max: 15.9c 24 hr min; 6.0c Grass min; 3.9c Rainfall in 24 hrs ending 0800 g.m.t; 0.9 mm Mean wind speed; 7 mph NE 1 okta Ci Vis: over 80 km.

Mainly about the boonies while we wait for an LP cell to either explode or shrivel

Yep tell me about it. My friend in Berlin is going to send me some video when it arrives. Had a few flashes here so it wasn't all bad today. Spent the afternoon on box hill in Surrey watching the clouds build. Rain started just as I was heading back about 3pm from an obvious line of convection. Wasn't until around 7pm when things really got going, it's only just stopped raining. Not a bad day.

And still its as heavy as ever, another flash of lightning too.

It just keeps on coming here in Sutton. Had a bit of small hail, no more lightning yet.

A slight exaggeration. A fairly light NE for most but a little stronger in the east and south east. Dry for everyone except the extreme east and south east with the rain spreading west and north by 00Z Tuesday,

Couple of photos today Okay one more I had to:

Of course having said that the ecm is still looking to track the depression north into the Netherlands next Monday and then sharply west bringing a very wet day to the UK on Tuesday. More runs needed. I've always wanted to say that.

Nice to see the showers/storms were pretty well modelled this pm!

I agree Cheese about the humidity in this country- a lot of the notable hot spells in recent years had a lot of dry heat with low dewpoints. The July 2006 spell was a prime example- although it did get more humid in the final third of the month at times. People seem to equate anything hot with humidity in this country- I think it's partly down to how well our buildings are insulated which means they retain a lot of heat at night, giving people the illusion that it's still hot outside.

Nice work again by Gibby. You really put a lot of effort into your presentation. Back in Skipton for a few weeks , so not looking bad here as we avoid those blustery NW winds. Although in Yorkshire, I would say climate wise my location is more in kind to the Northwest of England. Anyway, Blackpool is a fair bit closer to the Gateway to The Dales than Scarborough. Err , Easterly winds in Scarborough at this time of year... Go west where the sunshine is best.. C

What a shame to see the MJO collapsing in phase 4 already - a push toward 5 in the final week of May could have helped us out a lot with getting the ridge to behave. Instead we continue to see quite bizarre patterns in the offering, as high-latitude blocking keeps on being upgraded in the mid-range. ECM: GFS: A brief but vicious looking dipole pattern has now emerged for 29th May, which given the wind strength is more bad news for the Arctic.Here in the UK, we're lucky to see a ridge close enough to our NE and a weak enough low to the south to allow for warm conditions with little more than a few scattered showers for at least the southern half of the UK. We then see some quite monstrous blocking across the Arctic from both ECM and GFS - but with significant differences in the orientation. GFS keeps focusing it on the American side of the Arctic, with a peak over Greenland, which is basically the outcome from hell for the Arctic as another strong dipole rages away. ECM is kinder in this regard - but on the other hand, the high pressure is so extensive and 'warm' that prospects are perhaps little better up there. Down here, though, it could make a difference, as ridges from the Azores can join forces with blocking in that position to bring us fine weather while unstable conditions are held to the south - but only if you've not got a residual low wandering about such as the past few ECM runs have gone with. You know the weather patterns are out of kilter when you have a low moving from SE to NW across the country. As amazing as it sounds, it seems likely to me that the record-early and dramatic breakdown of the polar vortex in early March has combined with a record-warm Earth to set in motion a chain of events in which exceptional imports of warm air into the Arctic promote not just record-breaking Apr-May sea ice melt but also strong height rises in the Arctic. Speculating as to possible causes, I can see the reduced Arctic to mid-latitude thermal gradient playing a role, and/or the warm air imports tending to ride up over colder surface air and then sink down - so raising surface pressure. There are probably other key variables at play too. Perhaps the stretches of open water on the American side are already having significant impacts. All going well, I intend to research this as part of my professional work this week, so that I can speak more definitively on the subject - though I may not be allowed to tell you much on here I'm afraid! This summer should make for an important case study not only into what actually happens but how well the models handle it all (this is where this thread comes in!), unless of course there is an extreme turnaround in the Arctic weather patterns.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON MONDAY MAY 23RD 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Pressure is building to the North of the UK with the slack Northerly showery flow gradually weakening as it veers NE over the next few days. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND/OR FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level and snow forecast is now suspended until the beginning of October. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Some rain or showers at times but plenty of dry and fine weather too especially in the North. Occasionally warm in the South. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream is expected to feature largely to the South of the UK over the next few weeks. It features in a cyclonic form around Low pressure to the SW later this week this easing out only slowly as a period of slack and poorly defined period of flow seems likely in a week or so and through the second week although what flow there is seems to remain biased to be at a point South of the UK. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows Low pressure forming to the South and SW of the UK and High pressure to the North becoming the driving forces within the UK weather over the coming weeks. The situation develops over the next few days as an easterly flow develops with some reasonably warm conditions especially towards the West but with an increased risk later of thundery showers moving up from the South eventually affecting many areas from the start of next week with only slow changes in the overall patterning then through the second week involving more showers at times but with some dry and bright and potentially warm conditions for many at times as well. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif GFS CONTROL RUN The Control Run shows a similar pattern to the synoptics over the first week while the second week leans an influence towards warm and sunny conditions developing with the risk of the occasional thundery shower as High pressure looks more resilient in this run although some insertions of shallow Low pressure looks possible too. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The clustering today continues to show some variations in expected conditions across the UK in two weeks ranging from slack pressure with showers to dry and fine weather under High pressure. There is nothing too dramatic shown though within the clustering for the UK so quite average benign conditions would be the most likely patterning. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows the theme of an ENE flow for a time this week before the winds fall light as the pressure pattern slackens always with the risk of some potentially thundery showers at times probably most focused towards the South. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show High pressure to the North with an Easterly flow developing across the UK. A lot of dry weather for many for a time but later in the week troughs from both the East and South threaten parts of the UK with showers by the end of the week. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM The theme of GEM shows a week or so of easterly winds with the increasing risk of showers by the weekend before High pressure slowly builds NE into the UK over the Bank Holiday weekend and next week with showers dissolving and conditions becoming sunny and warm for many. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM keeps slack Low pressure conditions across the UK from later this week, through the weekend and out to the end of the run with a continued risk of showers, some heavy especially in the South but with some warm, dry and bright weather for many too at times. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM today is not the best of the group this morning if it's fine and settled weather your after as persistent High pressure North of the UK keeps Low pressure albeit weak and slack near to the South with thundery showers at times right out to Day 10 from this morning's run. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 10 Day mean Chart from last night shows the UK in almost 'col' conditions between two Low pressure areas East and West and High pressure areas North and South. This often means quite quiet and benign conditions with some warm sunshine mixed with occasional showers. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme from the models today seem to lean towards slack pressure being maintained for the foreseeable future meaning light winds and a sunshine and shower mix of weather across the UK with day to day variances hard to predict. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.5 pts with UKMO at 99.4 pts and GFS at 99.2 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.3 pts to UKMO's 96.0 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.8 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.0 pts to UKMO at 87.0 pts and GFS at 85.2 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 58.6 pts to 51.4 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 38.2 pts to 35.7 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS A few days off from the models and I was hoping that changes towards High pressure based weather with UK wide warm and sunny conditions would greet me this morning but with the odd exception or two I see that is not the case and in fact changes since I last reported on Friday are minimalist in a picture of very slack conditions across the UK with fine and humid weather mixed with the risk of potentially thundery showers at times. The main focus of the weather appears to be High pressure positioned to the North of the UK keeping our risk of warm humid and continental style conditions moving up across at least the South of the UK later this week and looking reluctant to move away thereafter. This means of course an Easterly flow across the UK so west will be best for warmth while Eastern coasts look occasionally cool and cloudy at times with winds off the North Sea. Thundery showers will focus on the South at first but could occur elsewhere too with time. In these slack pressure patterns many areas end up with conditions set fair or better with little in the way of significant rain whereas localities could see some very heavy downpours at times and the devil will be in the detail day to day over the coming weeks. Temperatures shouldn't be a concern and it could feel warm and humid at times away from that East coast. Then if I had to make a judgement on where we go longer term I would favour a slow build of pressure, hopefully from the SW which would be the best direction to bring our best shot at warm and sunny weather and I feel there is a chance of that happening as we enter deeper into June. Next Update Tuesday May 24th 2016 from 09:00

I very much doubt there will be much head scratching apart from next weekend the details of which are somewhat elusive. This morning's GEFS for the 10-15 period continues to be not bad.

Took this tonight (2045) of the shower that passed north of Newcastle no sferics from it though looked might fine to

I hope any heatwave doesn't turn out to be on the severe side, people seem to forget the hot and sticky awful humidity that comes with our heatwaves and the days and nights of unbearable heat. I have bad memories of being in central London during rush hour in July 2006.

Day 4 - Near Leoti, Kansas An honour to see such an amazing structure!

Bright sunny morning with a little bit of Cu bubbling up. Temp 9C and a zephyr from the SSW. Some possibilities this PM

Whether you understand the implications or not, what should I, or my children, or grandchildren do? As a grandparent, I for one will not be telling them bed time stories about the disappearing ice, and the changes this may bring. Because if worse comes to worse, theres stained glass window all we can do about it anyway!

Time to abandon ship me thinks. Mars, I hope you're ready for us!

First chance for a group shot, here's everyone except me, as I'm shy.

Levi's hurricane outlook http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Prognosis from the Mexican weather bureau - no text discussion but they see the EPAC more active than the Atlantic. http://smn.cna.gob.mx/tools/DATA/Ciclones%20Tropicales/Proyecci%C3%B3n/2016.pdf

2016 Atlantic, Caribbean & Gulf Of Mexico Hurricane Season Forecast (Updated On May 14) http://crownweather.com/index.php/discussions/2016-atlantic-caribbean-gulf-of-mexico-hurricane-season-forecast/

Met Office predicts slightly above-average Atlantic hurricane season https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2016/05/12/met-office-predicts-slightly-above-average-atlantic-hurricane-season/