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Just caught this beauty!!

Just captured this whilst in the garden moments ago.

I've never tried to upload any weather pics before (so hopefully this works) but here's a video screen shot of the Southampton storm at roughly 6.30pm. The view is from Eastleigh Swan Center car park and i believe the lightning is striking somewhere near to West Quay shopping center.

Here's another from a friend of mine. Wish I'd have been nearer to it to see if there was any debris or damage. Haven't heard anything bad so far.

Hi guys Everyone accounted for and ready to go for Tour 2, heading way out west today, not expecting much in the way of chaseable daytime storms today but should be some elevated shots at lightning tonight or maybe "just" something in the daytime if Nam4k is to be believed. After that its the long slog north to a much more active pattern starting the weekend

With the ADS extent: after yesterdays drop, if we followed the extent loss from now til minimum of any of the last 11 years, we'd be at least 2nd lowest on record.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON WEDNESDAY MAY 18TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Showery Low pressure will move across Southern England today clearing away East tonight with further fronts moving across from the West in a westerly flow tomorrow. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND/OR FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will remain above all summits across the UK over the coming days basically in the range of 5000-8000ft. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Rather changeable with some rain or showers at times but some dry and brighter periods as well especially in the South and East. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream will be focused on moving in a NE'ly direction either over Southern England or the near continent for much of the coming period as it responds to pressure being Low to the West and later SW of the UK with periods in between when the flow disrupts somewhat and becomes light and ill defined. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream NEW GFS OPERATIONAL The New GFS Operational Run today shows the weather as very changeable over the coming few weeks with a very showery and perhaps windy period at the weekend melting into somewhat better conditions through next week more especially towards the North as pressure rises. The South may see further showery spells of weather perhaps thundery in places before this transfers further North later with a warm and drier phase for the South although the theme of maintaining a theme of higher pressure towards the North remains at the close of the run. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif GFS CONTROL RUN The Control Run sees things rather differently this morning in the second week with High pressure more likely to lie towards a point to the South of the UK with the best conditions there with some warm sunshine at times whereas in the North conditions remain Atlantic governed with rain at times in SW winds. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The clustering today again looks High pressure biased for the period in 14 days time with a centre likely lying to the West and SW with fine and being conditions likely for many across the UK. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning seems to be changing daily within it's outer limits of time. Today a very showery end to the weekend drifts into better conditions next week as High pressure builds from the SW by the early part of next week with dry and bright weather steadily extending to all areas by Tuesday. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a concoction of troughs moving across the UK over the next 5 days with each one bringing an intensification of the showers or spells of rain all mixed in with some brighter and drier interludes too. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM The theme of GEM shows conditions shaping up much like UKMO this morning up to Day 6 with better conditions developing under High pressure next week as it moves up from the SW. Then later next week Low pressure to the SW pushes the ridge away towards the North and east with the risk of thundery showers returning to the South and West. However, a ridge from the High looks as though it could attempt to maintain a lot of fine and dry weather for many areas right out to the second weekend with any showers restricted to the far West later. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM too follows a similar path as far as it goes out to this time next week with things improving under rising pressure early next week with showers dying out before potentially returning to the far South and SW later. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM today is less keen on developing extensive High pressure next week instead preferring to keep rather slack pressure conditions across the UK with the highest pressure towards the North while slack Low pressure over and to the Southeast of the UK maintains the risk of heavy showers at times with temperatures close to or perhaps a but above the seasonal average at times. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 10 Day mean Chart from last night shows Low pressure across the Eastern Atlantic and higher pressure to the East while Southerly winds bring relatively warm and probably humid conditions with the risk of showery rain at times especially across the West and NW. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme from the models today show a slow path to rather better conditions under higher pressure to return as we move through next week. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.5 pts with UKMO at 99.4 pts and GFS at 99.2 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.2 pts to UKMO's 96.2 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.8 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 88.7 pts to UKMO at 86.7 pts and GFS at 84.6 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 59.3 pts to 48.6 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 40.3 pts to 33.2 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS There is still a lot of indecision in the details of the pattern as we move out of this current very unsettled and sometimes wet period likely over the coming days and weekend. The risk of high winds at the weekend has subsided somewhat as the depth of Low pressure seems to be reduced somewhat with isobars further apart as a result. nevertheless all areas look at risk of heavy rain and showers at times between now and the start of next week. Then as the Low pressure areas move away to the NE pressure is shown to rise from the SW. This is shown by all models but in varying degrees of extent and significance for conditions across the UK for the rest of next week. The general theme should be for these better conditions to reach the SW on Monday extending to all areas by midweek but there are differences on opinion on how long and to what extent this fine weather lasts and in what areas. The main theme appears to be that the High pressure area drifts to the NE of the UK with low pressure developing down to the SW spreading a risk of showers back up into Southern and SW Britain later next week. Some output then shows this becoming the main driving force of the weather as this showery theme reaches more areas later. However, some output shows this High pressure lasting rather linger and to more areas with the GFS Clusters showing much support for High pressure influential across Britain by Day 14. However, having said all that the jury is still out on the details from say Tuesday of next week so expect more shifts in model output towards better or worse scenarios over the coming days. At least temperatures look like being respectable for most parts through the period so nothing too alarmist to report upon this morning for those farmers and growers in the next few weeks as the growing season accelerates in earnest. Next Update Thursday May 19th 2016 from 09:00

I think you're overreacting to individual runs...yes it's not a great run but it's pretty standard fare for the UK in the reliable time frame. The 'poor' conditions you talk about are in FI- and even then we end up on a knife edge- it wouldn't take much to tip that setup into a very favourable one for us with the trough setting up the SW of the UK, similar to what the GFS is showing. It's certainly not as bad a run as we saw from the ECM this morning. I still believe we will see an improvement from around Tuesday onwards next week.

Something not that different to the ideas shown on GFS this morning and NOAA this evening on their 500mb anomaly charts

I don't think that's fair comment. Yes they went for the probable influence of HP, and their access to more information and being highly trained meteorologists it was no doubt the percentage play at the time. And in fact it also was indicated on the anomalies which we have access to as they were all pointing to the upper trough being further west and not anchored just to our south west, Which also of course hasn't materialised yet. It escapes me why you consider this foolhardy as the longer range forecasts are never caste in stone, even for professionals.

The NOAA and ecm anomalies tonight show little change from unsettled in the next 14 days with the upper low anchored to the south west of the UK and HP ridging north. Possible changing towards the end the run as the trough weakens and retrogresses. This doesn't mean it will be diabolical and I can envisage a number of fine days interspersed with some, shall we say, some interesting ones.

Already on the storm thread, but I thought I'd share this with the regional folk captured today at 5pm ish

Sorry about that

Fantastic pictures! Do you know if it touched down?

Once storms past me always seem to intensify....

I'm South East of that and can hear it. Looks dark in that direction. Louder rumbles now.

First long rumble of thunder here in North Hampshire at 4.35pm.

More chance of Spurs winning the premiership I'd say!!

Yes, another term used (incorrectly) a little too frequently on here whenever showers are organised a little more linearly on radar, or when there's a narrow band of heavy rain ahead of a cold front. A Squall line is actually a type of MCS where thunderstorms are organised along a common lifting mechanism. A good shear environment is key to MCS formation. Main characteristic of squall lines is very strong (or damaging) straight line winds from downdraft/outflow ahead of the line.

More chance of Liverpool winning the Europa than getting thunder today. 15c and dry here.

I was stating in general not just for the island, I didnt even mention the my area o.O I actually do mate, i think the island is in a decent spot, especially this evening when nocturnal cloud top cooling kicks in

Problem at the moment everything still a bit messy and unorganised, give it a couple more hours and I think things start getting its act together, best times will be from 7pm onwards Patience!

Absolutely chucking it down when i left home! I've just headed a few miles to Corfe Castle and its just damp.

Deterministic is really underlining the base of the spread. Plenty room for improvement - at least I hope so - in the UK with the grandchildren and hoping for better than that for outdoor activities.

Min today is 10.1C while maxima look like being around 14C, so remaining on 12.6C on tomorrows update. After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at: 12.6C to the 19th (11.5: -0.3) 12.6C to the 20th (14.1: +1.8) 12.7C to the 21st (14.5: +2.4) 12.7C to the 22nd (12.3: +0.1) 12.6C to the 23rd (10.9: -1.9) 12.5C to the 24th (10.8: -2.5) 12.5C to the 25th (11.1: -1.4) 12.4C to the 26th (10.0: -2.4) 12.4C to the 27th (12.2: +0.1) After that, the final days would be close to average, leaving he CET at 12.6C by months end. At this stage, I'd say anything from 11.8C to 13.2C is possible before corrections, and 11.4C to 13.2C after corrections.

Sorry if this has been raised before, however there's a slither of interest for SE parts Saturday night into Sunday, but it is extremely marginal. GFS 18z is modelling a build up of high CAPE/instability across N France, setting of thunderstorms which will track NE and could move across SE/London area Saturday night. 00z however has this missing entirely and travelling across Benelux. Worth keeping a cheeky eye on, but keeping in mind there's around 100 mile variation between the two models at present which could increase in the coming days.

Continuing my look at the Bank Holiday weekend then - Not a great deal of change overall compared with yesterday. By T240, about 60% of GEFS members on the 00Z still stalling a low far enough to the west of Ireland to encourage southerlies for most, with significant enough similarity to take seriously as a cluster. The ECM mean at this range, like yesterday, a little further east with the pattern - but the means are similar enough really: So a betting man would still be putting money on above average temperatures, though a 50/50 call on whether that be hot and dry, or warm with frontal interruptions (the chances of frontal activity increase quickly as one heads west) All rather similar to the NOAA outlook from last night: The ECM op this morning should not be taken too literally in my opinion. It's a bit of a freak that England/Wales is the only spot under a tiny continual cold pool within 1000 miles in any direction! And at the timeframes involved, you'd hope we'd have a decent chance of seeing the warmer air around us instead, seeing that in general, there isn't too much cold air around.

G'mornin GW. Yeah, this year has been something else. The pattern over the next week is almost identical to 2007 actually, just warmer. It wasn't until June 2007 that things got really bad though, with uppers of over 15C getting pulled into Beaufort. If we see anything like that this year, the thin and mobile ice will be decimated. Given what little is required to get this year into the bottom 2 on record, and the continually poor weather for ice retention, I really can't help but speculate about where the minimum will end up.

We will be hosting an AMA today on reddit.com/r/science with folks from Climate Central and the Weather Channel. When the AMA is live, I'll add a link in here. Here's the intro: "Hi, we're Bernadette Woods Placky and Brian Kahn from Climate Central and Carl Parker, a hurricane specialist from the Weather Channel. The last 11 months in a row have been some of the most abnormally warm months the planet has ever experienced and are toeing close to the 1.5°C warming threshold laid out by the United Nations as an important climate milestone. We've been keeping an eye on the record-setting temperatures as well as some of the impacts from record-low sea ice to a sudden April meltdown in Greenland to coral bleaching in the Great Barrier Reef. We're here to answer your questions about the global warming hot streak the planet is currently on, where we're headed in the future and our new Twitter hashtag for why these temperatures are #2hot2handle. We will be back at 3 pm ET to answer your questions, Ask us anything!"

Got some lightning shots from Dans stream,there are quiet a few bolts going off there.

Well that maybe the case for you but not most people I speak to over the years or it would seem folk on here either. And you have never been sunburnt in the UK? I find that hard to believe unless you have very olive skin to begin with or are an infant. Yes we are a long way north but this is not Northern Scandinavia or Siberia, the sun still has a good kick to it. A UV of 6 at this time of year is enough to burn for most white people if you go out in the sun between 11am and 3pm. I am of Italian origin with roots in Sicily but can still burn a bit and tan.

Here's brief summary of what I expect for summer 2016. Temperatures will be close to 1981-2010 normal values and in specific terms, CET around 14.7 for June, 16.8 for July and 16.2 for August (summer mean 15.9). If there is any regional trend it would be towards lower anomalies in the south and higher in the north (of the UK and Ireland) meaning less difference than usual. This would be due to expected persistent frontal zone over northern France which would spread more frequent cloud and rain into south coast regions and promote more frequent dry spells further north. Thus I would expect rainfall to be above normal south of central Wales to east Anglia and near normal in much of north Wales, Ireland and northern England, trending to below normal in Scotland. (PREDICTED SUMMER RANK for CET if my monthly averages verify would be tied 79th with five others, out of 358 -- recent summers with the same average of 15.90 were in 2014, 1999 and 1982 ... further back the ties were 1950 and 1852 ... of course that's a very narrow validation band, if you want to consider all recent summers between 15.80 and 16.00 (the math places them in groups of .0, .3 and .7), then since 1950 we find the following in chronological order, including the ones already mentioned: 1950, 1970, 1982, 1996, 1999, 2002 2009, 2010, 2014 -- oddly, there are no recent summers from 15.93 to 16.07, so those listed are all cases from 15.8 to 15.9). This is a list of recent summers that were warmer than I am predicting to give you an idea of how 79th out of 358 looks in modern data: (WARMER THAN MY PREDICTION FOR 2016 -- 15.9 C -- (since 1949) -- 1976 (17.77) -- ranked 1st all years 1995 (17.37) -- ranked 3rd 2003 (17.33) -- ranked 4th 2006 (17.23) -- ranked 5th 1983 (17.07) -- ranked 7th 1975 (16.93) -- ranked 12th 1959, 1997 (16.57) 1955 (16.53) 1949 (16.5) 1989 (16.47) 1984 (16.33) 2013 (16.27) 2004 (16.23) 2005 (16.20) 1990, 1994 (16.17) 2001 (16.1) So that would rank it 19th warmest of the 68 summers since I was born anyway (granted I have missed most of them and my summers of return are a horror story having managed to pick 1965, 1972 and 1988 as well as 2007 briefly). For comparison, the coldest summer since 1949 was 1954 at 14.07 closely followed by 1956 at 14.13 ... my parents emigrated in 1957 and now I am starting to see why that may be the case. I don't expect long intervals of strong blocking rather, some weeks of weak blocking tendency alternating with periods of rather sluggish Atlantic dominated weather. There could be one or two decent warm spells in this mixture as well as one or two wet intervals. My best bet for a warm spell or heat wave would be around first third of July, second best looking index values come in very late July and first week of August. Mid-July and late August appear more likely to have the wet spells. June in general looks rather bland and with some tendency to warm spells might be a fairly decent June compared to some recently. In North America I am expecting to see a rather normal pattern too, the slowly dissipating El Nino signal over the eastern Pacific combined with a long-term trough tendency over the east will not entirely dissipate so that western regions may have a relatively hot and dry summer while central and eastern regions might come in close to average with an equal mixture of warm and cool spells. I would expect the hurricane season to be a more active one than the last several, so will be predicting 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes. The recent average is 14, 7 and 3. My hunch would be that if my forecast busts, it will be warmer rather than colder than I am predicting. The appearance of both 1983 and 1975 in the warm list suggests that you can get a decent summer after a fading El Nino event and after a record warm December so that those two drivers are not automatically to be considered contra-indications for a warm summer. Summer 1935 (after the other previously tied for warmest December 1934) was 16.27, also a fairly warm summer. I tend to be conservative with my seasonal forecasts so perhaps I should say about equal chances of near normal and 1 deg above normal, and a slight chance of a top 20 contender. I think we'll beat last summer's 15.27 (would have been 15.17 without 1st of July so if you were away that day, you missed the main event of summer 2015). If last summer could produce that 6th hottest day ever in the CET record (going by memory) then this summer should be watched for another blast since we are seeing rather frequent blocking. I do suspect that there will be some heavy rain at times in the south since some index values in my research are suggesting split flow and frequent frontal zone set-up across northern France or the Channel. And I would not be surprised if there were drought issues in parts of Scotland.

It's structure and lightning for me. After all that's why it's called "Storm" Chasing not tornado chasing. That said the odd tornado or two is nice!!

Hi BFTV! We've been around melt seasons since at least 07' so I'd ask if you had ever seen a melt season that tempted you into serious discussion of minimums as early as May before? For my part I have been fully aware that a Bad summer ( like 07') was bound to return and play merry heck with the ice but then the past winter has left the pack in such an extreme state of preconditioning I really do not know what to think! Should we see a June like last year will it provide enough melt momentum to carry a low figure into Sept even without further major melt forcing?

Sunday and Monday were also good days. Reaching the mid-high teens and were sunny. Today wasn't horrendous but not as sunny. The rain has finally moved in this evening. Mild at 14c and this should ensure the grass rockets now...

Daniel Shaw is on that cell/cells SW of San Angelo,Texas http://www.severestorms.com.au/index.php/us-chasing/live-streaming-youtube.html youtube stream is a bit more stable Edit: T warned cell NW of fort stockton. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=sjt&loop=yes

The immediate outlook is for North Atlantic depressions to make a bee-line towards the UK ; it looks like all parts of the country will be getting some particularly wet (and cool) weather from tomorrow Wednesday) onwards. This will make up for the last fortnight which has been dry over much of the country.

So much of Europe under stupid infill/convective cloud today. Very few places with truly clear skies!

The GEFS this morning has caught my eye. Looking at the GFS op at T240, which suddenly plucks out a stalled trough off the west of Ireland dragging up a southerly, you could think just one of those things that happens in FI: .. until you study the whole GEFS ensemble set, with 15 out of 21 members stalling a significant trough in a very similar place at the same timeframe - I could post any of them but for space sake I'll just post this one: Note the 850s mean gets close to 10C around that time for London, and not masses of rain (you need to click the link below to see): http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=306&y=141&ville=Londres ECM mean not as dramatic but clearly favouring an Atlantic trough too, more low pressure influence on this one but could easily go the same way afterwards: Given the recent tendency for the models not to see the full strength of the Atlantic until a nearer timeframe, more runs are certainly needed - but as far as we can see right now, heatwave conditions are definitely one of the options for the Bank Holiday weekend. If it's still looking like this by Saturday, get the suncream and the BBQ prepared.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON TUESDAY MAY 17TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Troughs of Low pressure will move East across the UK over the next 24 hours or so repeated again on the remaining days of the week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND/OR FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK for the rest of the week will remain in the range of 5000-8000ft for the rest of the week as troughs cross East across the UK ebbing and flowing the level up and down. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Rather changeable with some rain or showers at times but some dry and brighter periods as well especially in the South and East. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The slack Jet flow currently will strengthen across the Atlantic and move towards Western Britain soon and then become established across Southern Britain and to the South as Low pressure lies close by. Then through the second week the pattern weakens and breaks up as High pressure develops to the North and the Jet stream becomes weak and ill defined on it's location. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream NEW GFS OPERATIONAL The New GFS Operational Run today shows the weather deteriorating over the UK in the coming days as Low pressure moves in from the West with showers and longer spells of rain coupled with strong winds at times lasting well into the weekend with temperatures near average. Winds will become strong too at the weekend before pressure rises to the SE and the rain and unsettled theme becomes more and more restricted to the NW. Then late in the period High pressure develops and settles to the NE of the UK and with lower pressure then to the South a warm or very warm and humid Easterly flow develops with thundery showers across the South. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif GFS CONTROL RUN The Control Run sees things rather differently this morning in the second week but with the same unsettled and later windy period at the weekend. Through the second week this run shows pressure becoming slack across the UK with some showers in places at times while there will be plenty of dry and relatively warm spells at times for all as well. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The clustering today look not too bad if it's fine weather your after in 14 days as there is a lot of High pressure shown near the UK at that time, albeit somewhat slack in nature. Only around 10% of model runs from GFS indicate Low pressure to the NW and rain at times this morning. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows an unsettled spell developing for the UK for the rest of the week peaking on Saturday as rain at times culminates in a spell of wet and windy weather on Saturday with strong winds in places too. Then things start to improve from the SW on Sunday before Monday sees remaining unsettled weather across the North while dry and bright weather moves into more Southern areas from the SW. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show troughs moving bodily East across the Uk for the rest of the week with rain at times for all, some heavy and accompanied by strong winds at the weekend especially across Northern and western Britain. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM The theme of GEM too is for Low pressure to bring a change to Westerly winds and rain at times later today onward with some heavy rain at times for all coupled with strong winds for a time at the weekend. Then after the weekend warmer air moves North across the UK as pressure rises to the east backing winds towards the South. This means that warm and humid weather looks likely next week with Low pressure to the West and High pressure to the East with a few thundery showers at times in the West. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows unsettled weather with rain at times from today with some strong Westerly winds at times especially at the weekend. Then as we move into the new week Low pressure edges away to the NE allowing higher pressure and better weather to slowly extend North and East across the UK in average temperatures. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM today also shows the unsettled period from today as Low pressure troughs and Low pressure move across the UK from the West. This unsettled period lasts through the weekend when some strong winds look likely especially on Saturday. Then as the run moves through next week it shows Low pressure anchoring down to the SW for a time before filling up and bringing some potentially thundery rain at times to the South with the driest weather switching towards the North. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 10 Day mean Chart from last night shows Low pressure across the Atlantic and higher pressure to the East while Southerly winds bring relatively warm and probably humid conditions with the risk of showery rain at times especially across the West and NW. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme from the models today continue to paint a more unsettled phase of weather to come before things probably become drier and warmer later especially in the SE. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.5 pts with UKMO at 99.4 pts and GFS at 99.2 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.2 pts to UKMO's 96.2 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.8 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 88.9 pts to UKMO at 86.9 pts and GFS at 84.3 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 60.5 pts to 48.4 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 42.4 pts to 34.7 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS The models today continue to bring much more unsettled conditions to the UK commencing over the next day or so. All areas can expect some rain, moving in from the West late today and continuing through the rest of the week and the weekend when winds could become a feature too for a time with Westerly gales in exposure. Temperatures will be close to average by day but much less cool than recently by night with the risk of frost finally eliminated. Then after this unsettled phase and looking towards next week we should see slow improvements take place most likely from the South with any further rain restricted more and more towards the NW with the chance of some warm conditions in the SE at least. Low pressure always looks likely to remain either to the NW or SW of the UK so the Western extremities of the UK could see some further rain at times, perhaps thundery if Low pressure lies to the SW with warm weather extending to many parts of the UK should that become the case. So getting through the next 5-6 days of rain at times may well be the precursor to slow improvements towards warmer and more settled conditions especially over the East and SE and with winds largely blowing from a Southerly source temperatures never look likely to be a problem in the next few weeks. Next Update Wednesday May 18th 2016 from 09:00

Tour 1 has gone well this year lol

https://robertscribbler.com/

Summers 2005 and 2014 were nothing to complain about in my opinion: apart from August 2014 being ruined by Hurricane Bertha - other than that, I'd more or less take a repeat of those for this year @weatherguru14 I agree, after looking more deeply into weather patterns of previous years, I'm now starting to think that predominantely warmer than average dry settled springs are bad omens for Summer based on the average to disastrous recent summers that followed such Springs (2007, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012). I wouldn't say last summer was particularly bad but it was still cooler than average despite being dry, no proper heatwaves and real warm spells lasted no more than a day. As for Summer 2016 it's a fine line regarding settled and unsettled weather. Long range modelling at this point can be very vague and uncertain - from what I can gather, La Nina and when it will fully begin is a big reason for why they have been switching from between warm and dry and cool and wet. Nothing is clear cut at the moment - as I mentioned before I recall the models and sites like WSI predicting a warm and dry Summer in 2012 for the UK during that Spring only for the outlook to rightfully change once Summer had started and it was clear that predominantely cool and wet weather would be dominant. Also 2015 was predicted as cool and wet and whilst it was on the cooler side of average, for me it wasn't mostly wet and occasionally there were pleasant warm spells. In my opinion - La Nina beginning most likely at the end of Summer could see cool and unsettled weather more likely during the second half, particularly in August. But with ENSO neutral conditions pulling the strings during late spring and early summer this could mean more chances of a lot of warmer, dry proper Summer weather for the first part (May/June/July). I wouldn't say a clear cut settled and warm (2003) or unsettled and cool (2007/2011/2012) summer but a mixed bag much like 2014 as a recent good example.

The thing I will always associate with summer 2005 is England regaining the Ashes after 18 years. Summer 2005 had its ups and downs but it wasn't too bad overall.

yep July 83 would do very nicely very similar to June 2005 hot but not too humid... for me this beats July 2006 easily and just edges out July 1995. July 1983 is the best July in my life time.

that is bizarre. According to Trevor Harley June was cool and cloudy (but dry) but here is a quote about July '83: "The hottest of the century (19.5C), and indeed the hottest month since records began. Also mostly dry and sunny, but with some severe thunderstorms. A ridge of high pressure extended from the Azores as the month started. The temperature reached the magic 32C somewhere in the country every day from the 12-16th, and the average daily maximum at Heathrow in the month was 27.6C. There were 17 consecutive days above 27C (80F) somewhere in the country between the 3rd and 19th, and 22 days above 27C in total; the temperature exceeded 21C somewhere in the country every day but one. The highest temperature of the month was 33.7C at Liphook (Hants.)" August was also hot and dry in the main.

Oops, big mistake there. Summer 1983 was a very good summer, it certainly not what Matt Hugo is trying to make out it was. "After one of the strongest El Nino events in years through this past winter, of which is comparable to the likes of the 1982-1983 and 1997-1998 El Nino’s, there is some correlation and connection that supports a generally cooler and more unsettled summer for the UK, particularly when there is expected to be the development of a La Nina, which now seems to be likely as the rest of the year progresses. Indeed, both the summers of 1983 and 1998, but particularly 1998, were often unsettled with low pressure systems and unsettled conditions never too far away from the UK."

I understand your point, but what I had in mind was more isolated to this winter. If you look at 1739-40 you see a case where it suddenly reverted to the Maunder climate after quite a warm decade and three active solar cycles. There, I was thinking perhaps winter 1739-40 had the right setup to take advantage of the lingering closer boundaries of ice and open water, so that the long hiatus from severe cold was quickly overcome. Conversely in 2015-16 the synoptics were favourable for a mild start to winter and so the circulation managed to over-ride the recent slight downturn in the ongoing "climate change" period of steady increases. Although solar activity now favours colder winters, this opportunity for a return to the mild days was easily taken (and in terms of Nov-Dec, gobbled down with glee). But I don't think this means future winters will face the same fate necessarily, these longer-term considerations about solar activity will tend to dig in, and looking at 1740, it wasn't too long before some quite mild winters showed up again as they often did in the 1730s. I think we are in a similar position in solar terms to about 1804-06, which is a good place to be for cold fanciers, there were several outstanding cold winters in the two decades that followed. It's all a question of how much the human signal will interfere with these solar dynamics. My personal opinion is that the modification will remain slight, in the 0.5 to 1.0 C deg range. If a winter is going to be a good one, warming it by 0.5 to 1.0 will not destroy the end result (as we saw at both ends of 2010).

STRONG SOLAR INTERVALS ... MEAN WINTER CET Dec-Feb vs POSITION IN SOLAR CYCLE P-7 _P-6 _P-5 _P-4 _P-3 _P-2 _P-1 _Peak _ P+1 _P+2 _P+3 _P+4 _P+5 _P+6 _P+7 _P+8 ____ 3.8 _ 4.2 _ 4.5 _ 4.3 _ 0.8 _ 3.3 _ 3.2 _ 3.8 _ 4.0 _ 3.8 _ 4.5 _______________ 3.1 _ 5.2 _ 3.7 _ 3.1 _ 3.7 _ 3.3 _ 1.7 _ 4.6 _ 2.5 _ 4.7 _________ 5.0 _ 6.1 _ 4.1 _ 5.0 _ 5.6 _ 4.7 _ 5.6 _-0.4 _ 2.8 _ 3.1 _ 3.4 _ 3.1 _________ 3.2 _ 2.2 _ 4.8 _ 3.2 _ 5.0 _ 5.1 _ 3.2 _ 3.1 _ 3.3 _ 3.5 _ 2.3 _ 4.3 ______________ 2.4 _ 3.2 _ 5.2 _ 2.7 _ 5.8 _ 4.4 _ 2.6 _ 4.6 _ 2.7 ___________________ 1.4 _ 2.9 _ 3.0 _ 3.3 _ 4.4 _ 2.6 _ 2.9 _ 3.8 ______________ 2.9 _ 4.7 _ 2.2 _ 2.9 _ 2.6 _ 5.6 _ 1.4 _ 3.4 _ 4.2 ______________ 3.2 _ 1.2 _ 1.4 _ 3.0 _ 4.1 _ 3.8 _ 2.1 _ 5.7 _ 4.4 _ 2.6 _ 3.9 _ 4.8 ______________ 6.5 _ 4.7 _ 3.4 _ 3.8 _ 1.4 _ 3.6 _ 3.8 _ 1.6 _ 3.1 _ 4.4 ______________ 4.3 _ 1.5 _ 5.8 _ 1.7 _ 4.1 _ 5.1 _ 3.5 _ 5.0 _ 4.8 _ 4.5 _ 3.1 _________ 1.9 _ 3.8 _ 3.8 _ 4.2 _ 5.1 _ 2.3 _ 2.7 _ 4.3 _ 5.7 _ 3.7 _ 2.7 ______________ 5.3 _ 4.7 _ 4.5 _ 6.8 _ 3.0 _ 2.4 _ 5.2 _ 4.1 _ 4.9 _ 2.8 _ 4.1 _________ 5.1 _ 5.3 _ 5.2 _ 4.3 _ 5.5 _ 1.5 _ 4.2 _ 3.9 _ 5.6 _ 5.4 _ 4.9 _________ 5.7 _ 3.9 _ 5.8 _ 4.7 _ 4.2 _ 4.4 _ 1.7 _ 4.6 _ 3.8 _ 4.8 ______________ 4.1 _ 3.2 _ 6.1 _ 3.0 _ 5.4 _ 4.6 _ 4.7 _ 1.5 _ 2.6 _ 2.2 ______________ 5.9 _ 4.3 _ 3.7 _ 4.5 _ 1.1 _ 5.1 _ 5.6 _ 5.1 _ 2.9 _ 3.9 ______________ 3.5 _ 4.1 _ 3.5 _ 2.9 _ 5.5 _ 4.2 _ 3.6 _ 4.6 _ 4.9 _ 3.6 ________ -0.3 _ 3.5 _ 3.3 _ 4.4 _ 5.1 _ 3.5 _ 3.2 _ 3.3 _ 4.4 _ 4.9 _ 4.9 ________ 5.4 _ 6.4 _ 5.2 _ 3.3 _ 4.1 _ 1.6 _ 4.6 _ 4.5 _ 2.6 _ 4.3 _ 4.2 _____________ 2.7 _ 2.9 _ 3.5 _ 5.3 _ 6.5 _ 6.2 _ 3.0 _ 4.6 _ 4.7 _ 4.7 ________ 5.9 _ 3.0 _ 4.0 _ 6.1 _ 5.4 _ 5.4 _ 4.5 _ 5.4 _ 4.7 _ 5.1 _ 5.2 _ 4.1 _ 6.4 Means: ___ 3.8 _ 4.0 _ 4.1 _ 4.0 _ 4.0 _ 4.0 _ 3.6 _ 4.0 _ 3.5 _ 4.0 _ 4.0 _ 3.8 _ 3.8 _ 5.6 Analysis First we could compare the profiles of the strong solar intervals and the weak solar intervals: STRONG ___ 3.8 _ 4.0 _ 4.1 _ 4.0 _ 4.0 _ 4.0 _ 3.6 _ 4.0 _ 3.5 _ 4.0 _ 4.0 _ 3.8 _ 3.8 _ (5.6) WEAK _(3.8)_3.3 _ 4.0 _ 2.8 _ 3.8 _ 2.8 _ 3.1 _ 3.7 _ 3.8 _ 3.4 _ 2.9 _ 2.4 _ 3.1 _ 4.4 _ (3.1) _ (2.3) The values in brackets are based on very few cases and can be largely ignored. The main point of comparison is that the winters during the weak solar activity show a tendency to be colder about 2-4 years before and after the solar cycle peaks, when compared to periods of strong activity. The comparison of peak years (also P+1 and P+2) are very similar. Also quite similar would be the cases from quiet years between peaks in either weak or strong activity. It is interesting to note that colder winters in the active phase tend to cluster near sunspot peaks, with the notable exceptions of 1784 and 1963 (the -0.3 value that starts the fourth last row of strong data). All of these notable cold winters occurred in peak sunspot years: 1838, 1917, 1947, 1979. Other notable cold winters in strong periods were a bit after sunspot peaks such as 1740 (+3) and 1929 (+1). Overall, I think what this tells us is that intervals of lower solar activity tend towards colder winters but these will cluster away from the weak solar activity peaks that might occur, more than during them or for that matter at furthest points from them. The differences are barely significant for the numbers of cycles involved. It can be seen from the above comparisons that years from 4 to 1 year before cycles peak average 0.9 C deg colder in the weak intervals, and again from years that are 3 to 5 years after these peaks, the difference averages 1.1 C deg colder. It should be noted that weak activity was assigned to a total of 136 years out of 357. It might be worth keeping track of this too -- the most similar data to 2016 appear to be from 1834 which turned out to be a transition from weak to strong activity. While most forecasts are calling for a prolonged downturn in solar activity, what happened after 1834 was a sudden surge in activity and a very short period between two peaks (1829-30 then 1837-38). We could also speculate that if there is in fact very much cause and effect involved in these linkages beyond random variability, the first of the three active periods (1712 to 1794) appeared to "short circuit" after a few strong cycles and the signature of cycles from 1738 to 1787 rather closely resembles the signature of weak periods more than strong intervals. Perhaps what happened was that the warming induced by the solar activity could not be sustained after such a long cold interval as the Maunder (and the associated locations of ice boundaries to the north of Britain) and eventually (1739-40) the rather strong warming ongoing then quicjkly reverted to the Maunder style cold which then did not entirely leave the scene for the rest of this active phase (a more variable climate 1750s to 1790s) before the Dalton weak signal re-established more consistently still, the generally cold signature. The 19th century strong cycles seemed to be quite unreliable too for sustained warmth and one could argue that the Dalton and the later weak cycles around 1883 to 1906 merged into one very long cold interval without much interruption with only a few mild winters such as 1846 and 1869. The lack of sustained winter cold after the period 2009-13 may be an opposite case where the solar forcing could not overcome the climate controlling large scale signature of the long warm period before the solar downturn. We may be seeing the opposite of 1740 happening this winter (in this case, reversal of an unsustainable cold signal).