Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Windy?

Leaderboard


Popular Content

Showing content with the highest reputation on 18/05/16 in all areas

  1. 4 points
    Monday was AMAZING! Saw a tornado, drove through golf ball-sized hail (bonnet dents, woo) and lightning strikes in the hundreds per minute range. On the Netweather tour now
  2. 4 points
    With the ADS extent: after yesterdays drop, if we followed the extent loss from now til minimum of any of the last 11 years, we'd be at least 2nd lowest on record.
  3. 4 points
    HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON WEDNESDAY MAY 18TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Showery Low pressure will move across Southern England today clearing away East tonight with further fronts moving across from the West in a westerly flow tomorrow. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND/OR FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will remain above all summits across the UK over the coming days basically in the range of 5000-8000ft. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Rather changeable with some rain or showers at times but some dry and brighter periods as well especially in the South and East. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream will be focused on moving in a NE'ly direction either over Southern England or the near continent for much of the coming period as it responds to pressure being Low to the West and later SW of the UK with periods in between when the flow disrupts somewhat and becomes light and ill defined. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream NEW GFS OPERATIONAL The New GFS Operational Run today shows the weather as very changeable over the coming few weeks with a very showery and perhaps windy period at the weekend melting into somewhat better conditions through next week more especially towards the North as pressure rises. The South may see further showery spells of weather perhaps thundery in places before this transfers further North later with a warm and drier phase for the South although the theme of maintaining a theme of higher pressure towards the North remains at the close of the run. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif GFS CONTROL RUN The Control Run sees things rather differently this morning in the second week with High pressure more likely to lie towards a point to the South of the UK with the best conditions there with some warm sunshine at times whereas in the North conditions remain Atlantic governed with rain at times in SW winds. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The clustering today again looks High pressure biased for the period in 14 days time with a centre likely lying to the West and SW with fine and being conditions likely for many across the UK. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning seems to be changing daily within it's outer limits of time. Today a very showery end to the weekend drifts into better conditions next week as High pressure builds from the SW by the early part of next week with dry and bright weather steadily extending to all areas by Tuesday. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a concoction of troughs moving across the UK over the next 5 days with each one bringing an intensification of the showers or spells of rain all mixed in with some brighter and drier interludes too. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM The theme of GEM shows conditions shaping up much like UKMO this morning up to Day 6 with better conditions developing under High pressure next week as it moves up from the SW. Then later next week Low pressure to the SW pushes the ridge away towards the North and east with the risk of thundery showers returning to the South and West. However, a ridge from the High looks as though it could attempt to maintain a lot of fine and dry weather for many areas right out to the second weekend with any showers restricted to the far West later. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM too follows a similar path as far as it goes out to this time next week with things improving under rising pressure early next week with showers dying out before potentially returning to the far South and SW later. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM today is less keen on developing extensive High pressure next week instead preferring to keep rather slack pressure conditions across the UK with the highest pressure towards the North while slack Low pressure over and to the Southeast of the UK maintains the risk of heavy showers at times with temperatures close to or perhaps a but above the seasonal average at times. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 10 Day mean Chart from last night shows Low pressure across the Eastern Atlantic and higher pressure to the East while Southerly winds bring relatively warm and probably humid conditions with the risk of showery rain at times especially across the West and NW. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme from the models today show a slow path to rather better conditions under higher pressure to return as we move through next week. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.5 pts with UKMO at 99.4 pts and GFS at 99.2 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.2 pts to UKMO's 96.2 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.8 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 88.7 pts to UKMO at 86.7 pts and GFS at 84.6 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 59.3 pts to 48.6 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 40.3 pts to 33.2 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS There is still a lot of indecision in the details of the pattern as we move out of this current very unsettled and sometimes wet period likely over the coming days and weekend. The risk of high winds at the weekend has subsided somewhat as the depth of Low pressure seems to be reduced somewhat with isobars further apart as a result. nevertheless all areas look at risk of heavy rain and showers at times between now and the start of next week. Then as the Low pressure areas move away to the NE pressure is shown to rise from the SW. This is shown by all models but in varying degrees of extent and significance for conditions across the UK for the rest of next week. The general theme should be for these better conditions to reach the SW on Monday extending to all areas by midweek but there are differences on opinion on how long and to what extent this fine weather lasts and in what areas. The main theme appears to be that the High pressure area drifts to the NE of the UK with low pressure developing down to the SW spreading a risk of showers back up into Southern and SW Britain later next week. Some output then shows this becoming the main driving force of the weather as this showery theme reaches more areas later. However, some output shows this High pressure lasting rather linger and to more areas with the GFS Clusters showing much support for High pressure influential across Britain by Day 14. However, having said all that the jury is still out on the details from say Tuesday of next week so expect more shifts in model output towards better or worse scenarios over the coming days. At least temperatures look like being respectable for most parts through the period so nothing too alarmist to report upon this morning for those farmers and growers in the next few weeks as the growing season accelerates in earnest. Next Update Thursday May 19th 2016 from 09:00
  4. 3 points
    Something not that different to the ideas shown on GFS this morning and NOAA this evening on their 500mb anomaly charts
  5. 2 points
    Deterministic is really underlining the base of the spread. Plenty room for improvement - at least I hope so - in the UK with the grandchildren and hoping for better than that for outdoor activities.
  6. 2 points
    Min today is 10.1C while maxima look like being around 14C, so remaining on 12.6C on tomorrows update. After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at: 12.6C to the 19th (11.5: -0.3) 12.6C to the 20th (14.1: +1.8) 12.7C to the 21st (14.5: +2.4) 12.7C to the 22nd (12.3: +0.1) 12.6C to the 23rd (10.9: -1.9) 12.5C to the 24th (10.8: -2.5) 12.5C to the 25th (11.1: -1.4) 12.4C to the 26th (10.0: -2.4) 12.4C to the 27th (12.2: +0.1) After that, the final days would be close to average, leaving he CET at 12.6C by months end. At this stage, I'd say anything from 11.8C to 13.2C is possible before corrections, and 11.4C to 13.2C after corrections.
  7. 2 points
    My baby has had a cough for weeks, as it seems her fellow class mates, so it is NO shock that I feel awful with some kind of sore throaty, dizzy, headache, heavy chest and generally won't be doing the hoovering today \o/
  8. 2 points
    Sorry if this has been raised before, however there's a slither of interest for SE parts Saturday night into Sunday, but it is extremely marginal. GFS 18z is modelling a build up of high CAPE/instability across N France, setting of thunderstorms which will track NE and could move across SE/London area Saturday night. 00z however has this missing entirely and travelling across Benelux. Worth keeping a cheeky eye on, but keeping in mind there's around 100 mile variation between the two models at present which could increase in the coming days.
  9. 2 points
    Continuing my look at the Bank Holiday weekend then - Not a great deal of change overall compared with yesterday. By T240, about 60% of GEFS members on the 00Z still stalling a low far enough to the west of Ireland to encourage southerlies for most, with significant enough similarity to take seriously as a cluster. The ECM mean at this range, like yesterday, a little further east with the pattern - but the means are similar enough really: So a betting man would still be putting money on above average temperatures, though a 50/50 call on whether that be hot and dry, or warm with frontal interruptions (the chances of frontal activity increase quickly as one heads west) All rather similar to the NOAA outlook from last night: The ECM op this morning should not be taken too literally in my opinion. It's a bit of a freak that England/Wales is the only spot under a tiny continual cold pool within 1000 miles in any direction! And at the timeframes involved, you'd hope we'd have a decent chance of seeing the warmer air around us instead, seeing that in general, there isn't too much cold air around.
  10. 2 points
    G'mornin GW. Yeah, this year has been something else. The pattern over the next week is almost identical to 2007 actually, just warmer. It wasn't until June 2007 that things got really bad though, with uppers of over 15C getting pulled into Beaufort. If we see anything like that this year, the thin and mobile ice will be decimated. Given what little is required to get this year into the bottom 2 on record, and the continually poor weather for ice retention, I really can't help but speculate about where the minimum will end up.
  11. 2 points
    We will be hosting an AMA today on reddit.com/r/science with folks from Climate Central and the Weather Channel. When the AMA is live, I'll add a link in here. Here's the intro: "Hi, we're Bernadette Woods Placky and Brian Kahn from Climate Central and Carl Parker, a hurricane specialist from the Weather Channel. The last 11 months in a row have been some of the most abnormally warm months the planet has ever experienced and are toeing close to the 1.5°C warming threshold laid out by the United Nations as an important climate milestone. We've been keeping an eye on the record-setting temperatures as well as some of the impacts from record-low sea ice to a sudden April meltdown in Greenland to coral bleaching in the Great Barrier Reef. We're here to answer your questions about the global warming hot streak the planet is currently on, where we're headed in the future and our new Twitter hashtag for why these temperatures are #2hot2handle. We will be back at 3 pm ET to answer your questions, Ask us anything!"
  12. 2 points
    Got some lightning shots from Dans stream,there are quiet a few bolts going off there.
  13. 2 points
    Finally got the real PC up and running again, bit late but a few snaps of the Great Lady passing through Thornton on Monday.
  14. 2 points
    Well that maybe the case for you but not most people I speak to over the years or it would seem folk on here either. And you have never been sunburnt in the UK? I find that hard to believe unless you have very olive skin to begin with or are an infant. Yes we are a long way north but this is not Northern Scandinavia or Siberia, the sun still has a good kick to it. A UV of 6 at this time of year is enough to burn for most white people if you go out in the sun between 11am and 3pm. I am of Italian origin with roots in Sicily but can still burn a bit and tan.
  15. 2 points
    Here's brief summary of what I expect for summer 2016. Temperatures will be close to 1981-2010 normal values and in specific terms, CET around 14.7 for June, 16.8 for July and 16.2 for August (summer mean 15.9). If there is any regional trend it would be towards lower anomalies in the south and higher in the north (of the UK and Ireland) meaning less difference than usual. This would be due to expected persistent frontal zone over northern France which would spread more frequent cloud and rain into south coast regions and promote more frequent dry spells further north. Thus I would expect rainfall to be above normal south of central Wales to east Anglia and near normal in much of north Wales, Ireland and northern England, trending to below normal in Scotland. (PREDICTED SUMMER RANK for CET if my monthly averages verify would be tied 79th with five others, out of 358 -- recent summers with the same average of 15.90 were in 2014, 1999 and 1982 ... further back the ties were 1950 and 1852 ... of course that's a very narrow validation band, if you want to consider all recent summers between 15.80 and 16.00 (the math places them in groups of .0, .3 and .7), then since 1950 we find the following in chronological order, including the ones already mentioned: 1950, 1970, 1982, 1996, 1999, 2002 2009, 2010, 2014 -- oddly, there are no recent summers from 15.93 to 16.07, so those listed are all cases from 15.8 to 15.9). This is a list of recent summers that were warmer than I am predicting to give you an idea of how 79th out of 358 looks in modern data: (WARMER THAN MY PREDICTION FOR 2016 -- 15.9 C -- (since 1949) -- 1976 (17.77) -- ranked 1st all years 1995 (17.37) -- ranked 3rd 2003 (17.33) -- ranked 4th 2006 (17.23) -- ranked 5th 1983 (17.07) -- ranked 7th 1975 (16.93) -- ranked 12th 1959, 1997 (16.57) 1955 (16.53) 1949 (16.5) 1989 (16.47) 1984 (16.33) 2013 (16.27) 2004 (16.23) 2005 (16.20) 1990, 1994 (16.17) 2001 (16.1) So that would rank it 19th warmest of the 68 summers since I was born anyway (granted I have missed most of them and my summers of return are a horror story having managed to pick 1965, 1972 and 1988 as well as 2007 briefly). For comparison, the coldest summer since 1949 was 1954 at 14.07 closely followed by 1956 at 14.13 ... my parents emigrated in 1957 and now I am starting to see why that may be the case. I don't expect long intervals of strong blocking rather, some weeks of weak blocking tendency alternating with periods of rather sluggish Atlantic dominated weather. There could be one or two decent warm spells in this mixture as well as one or two wet intervals. My best bet for a warm spell or heat wave would be around first third of July, second best looking index values come in very late July and first week of August. Mid-July and late August appear more likely to have the wet spells. June in general looks rather bland and with some tendency to warm spells might be a fairly decent June compared to some recently. In North America I am expecting to see a rather normal pattern too, the slowly dissipating El Nino signal over the eastern Pacific combined with a long-term trough tendency over the east will not entirely dissipate so that western regions may have a relatively hot and dry summer while central and eastern regions might come in close to average with an equal mixture of warm and cool spells. I would expect the hurricane season to be a more active one than the last several, so will be predicting 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes. The recent average is 14, 7 and 3. My hunch would be that if my forecast busts, it will be warmer rather than colder than I am predicting. The appearance of both 1983 and 1975 in the warm list suggests that you can get a decent summer after a fading El Nino event and after a record warm December so that those two drivers are not automatically to be considered contra-indications for a warm summer. Summer 1935 (after the other previously tied for warmest December 1934) was 16.27, also a fairly warm summer. I tend to be conservative with my seasonal forecasts so perhaps I should say about equal chances of near normal and 1 deg above normal, and a slight chance of a top 20 contender. I think we'll beat last summer's 15.27 (would have been 15.17 without 1st of July so if you were away that day, you missed the main event of summer 2015). If last summer could produce that 6th hottest day ever in the CET record (going by memory) then this summer should be watched for another blast since we are seeing rather frequent blocking. I do suspect that there will be some heavy rain at times in the south since some index values in my research are suggesting split flow and frequent frontal zone set-up across northern France or the Channel. And I would not be surprised if there were drought issues in parts of Scotland.
  16. 1 point
    The AMA is now live https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/4jwao6/science_ama_series_were_weather_and_climate/
  17. 1 point
    doubt any thunderstorm for here tbh, the amount of times the nw gets forcasted storm activity, only for other area s to steal them i have lost count now,
  18. 1 point
  19. 1 point
    Everybody to their own opinion,you must be very lucky in you tolerance to heat and the effects of the sun,the vast majority are not so lucky. Uv can burn at any temperature,purely a skin type issue,some people find 25ish plus the max to be comfortable. And how you can state 33c in this country is not to bad especially for sleeping is very strange to me!
  20. 1 point
    In general it isn't true for some people but for some it is. There has been many instances in my lifetime (I wasn't born yesterday) when that was the opposite & humidity came along with the very warm/hot temps & dew points were above 15C. Like this not long ago. https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/EGCC/2015/7/1/DailyHistory.html?req_city=Manchester&req_state=&req_statename=United+Kingdom&reqdb.zip=00000&reqdb.magic=6&reqdb.wmo=03334 Whilst the air temps were very hot over there in California, it felt hot for sure but certainly not humid & sticky like it can here. I did not sweat as much as I do here. In fact I would say I have sweated more outside here in mid 20's temps with high humidity than I did with 38C in southern California & very low humidity. It's all relative to the individual. If you haven't experienced proper very dry desert heat with a dew point of about 3C & humidity below 10% then you don't know what you are on about. I went over there with a group of people from work and neither me nor them ever complained about it being "hard to breathe" or having a lack of energy. Back then I smoked as well.
  21. 1 point
    The GEFS this morning has caught my eye. Looking at the GFS op at T240, which suddenly plucks out a stalled trough off the west of Ireland dragging up a southerly, you could think just one of those things that happens in FI: .. until you study the whole GEFS ensemble set, with 15 out of 21 members stalling a significant trough in a very similar place at the same timeframe - I could post any of them but for space sake I'll just post this one: Note the 850s mean gets close to 10C around that time for London, and not masses of rain (you need to click the link below to see): http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=306&y=141&ville=Londres ECM mean not as dramatic but clearly favouring an Atlantic trough too, more low pressure influence on this one but could easily go the same way afterwards: Given the recent tendency for the models not to see the full strength of the Atlantic until a nearer timeframe, more runs are certainly needed - but as far as we can see right now, heatwave conditions are definitely one of the options for the Bank Holiday weekend. If it's still looking like this by Saturday, get the suncream and the BBQ prepared.
  22. 1 point
    HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON TUESDAY MAY 17TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Troughs of Low pressure will move East across the UK over the next 24 hours or so repeated again on the remaining days of the week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND/OR FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK for the rest of the week will remain in the range of 5000-8000ft for the rest of the week as troughs cross East across the UK ebbing and flowing the level up and down. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Rather changeable with some rain or showers at times but some dry and brighter periods as well especially in the South and East. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The slack Jet flow currently will strengthen across the Atlantic and move towards Western Britain soon and then become established across Southern Britain and to the South as Low pressure lies close by. Then through the second week the pattern weakens and breaks up as High pressure develops to the North and the Jet stream becomes weak and ill defined on it's location. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream NEW GFS OPERATIONAL The New GFS Operational Run today shows the weather deteriorating over the UK in the coming days as Low pressure moves in from the West with showers and longer spells of rain coupled with strong winds at times lasting well into the weekend with temperatures near average. Winds will become strong too at the weekend before pressure rises to the SE and the rain and unsettled theme becomes more and more restricted to the NW. Then late in the period High pressure develops and settles to the NE of the UK and with lower pressure then to the South a warm or very warm and humid Easterly flow develops with thundery showers across the South. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif GFS CONTROL RUN The Control Run sees things rather differently this morning in the second week but with the same unsettled and later windy period at the weekend. Through the second week this run shows pressure becoming slack across the UK with some showers in places at times while there will be plenty of dry and relatively warm spells at times for all as well. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The clustering today look not too bad if it's fine weather your after in 14 days as there is a lot of High pressure shown near the UK at that time, albeit somewhat slack in nature. Only around 10% of model runs from GFS indicate Low pressure to the NW and rain at times this morning. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows an unsettled spell developing for the UK for the rest of the week peaking on Saturday as rain at times culminates in a spell of wet and windy weather on Saturday with strong winds in places too. Then things start to improve from the SW on Sunday before Monday sees remaining unsettled weather across the North while dry and bright weather moves into more Southern areas from the SW. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show troughs moving bodily East across the Uk for the rest of the week with rain at times for all, some heavy and accompanied by strong winds at the weekend especially across Northern and western Britain. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM The theme of GEM too is for Low pressure to bring a change to Westerly winds and rain at times later today onward with some heavy rain at times for all coupled with strong winds for a time at the weekend. Then after the weekend warmer air moves North across the UK as pressure rises to the east backing winds towards the South. This means that warm and humid weather looks likely next week with Low pressure to the West and High pressure to the East with a few thundery showers at times in the West. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows unsettled weather with rain at times from today with some strong Westerly winds at times especially at the weekend. Then as we move into the new week Low pressure edges away to the NE allowing higher pressure and better weather to slowly extend North and East across the UK in average temperatures. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM today also shows the unsettled period from today as Low pressure troughs and Low pressure move across the UK from the West. This unsettled period lasts through the weekend when some strong winds look likely especially on Saturday. Then as the run moves through next week it shows Low pressure anchoring down to the SW for a time before filling up and bringing some potentially thundery rain at times to the South with the driest weather switching towards the North. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 10 Day mean Chart from last night shows Low pressure across the Atlantic and higher pressure to the East while Southerly winds bring relatively warm and probably humid conditions with the risk of showery rain at times especially across the West and NW. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme from the models today continue to paint a more unsettled phase of weather to come before things probably become drier and warmer later especially in the SE. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.5 pts with UKMO at 99.4 pts and GFS at 99.2 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.2 pts to UKMO's 96.2 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.8 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 88.9 pts to UKMO at 86.9 pts and GFS at 84.3 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 60.5 pts to 48.4 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 42.4 pts to 34.7 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS The models today continue to bring much more unsettled conditions to the UK commencing over the next day or so. All areas can expect some rain, moving in from the West late today and continuing through the rest of the week and the weekend when winds could become a feature too for a time with Westerly gales in exposure. Temperatures will be close to average by day but much less cool than recently by night with the risk of frost finally eliminated. Then after this unsettled phase and looking towards next week we should see slow improvements take place most likely from the South with any further rain restricted more and more towards the NW with the chance of some warm conditions in the SE at least. Low pressure always looks likely to remain either to the NW or SW of the UK so the Western extremities of the UK could see some further rain at times, perhaps thundery if Low pressure lies to the SW with warm weather extending to many parts of the UK should that become the case. So getting through the next 5-6 days of rain at times may well be the precursor to slow improvements towards warmer and more settled conditions especially over the East and SE and with winds largely blowing from a Southerly source temperatures never look likely to be a problem in the next few weeks. Next Update Wednesday May 18th 2016 from 09:00
  23. 1 point
    The likely summer SST profile is rare in the last century, what sort of influence will this have on our summer? The tropical analogues that Levi Cowan offers on his latest video blog are not great. Those factors and a possibility of record low Arctic ice - the so frequent, of late, uncharted territory bit - where will it take us in our summer fortunes. For those who don't have time or inclination to watch, top analogues are '85 and '88 - '70, '73, and '07 are also in the running.
  24. 1 point
    Summers 2005 and 2014 were nothing to complain about in my opinion: apart from August 2014 being ruined by Hurricane Bertha - other than that, I'd more or less take a repeat of those for this year @weatherguru14 I agree, after looking more deeply into weather patterns of previous years, I'm now starting to think that predominantely warmer than average dry settled springs are bad omens for Summer based on the average to disastrous recent summers that followed such Springs (2007, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012). I wouldn't say last summer was particularly bad but it was still cooler than average despite being dry, no proper heatwaves and real warm spells lasted no more than a day. As for Summer 2016 it's a fine line regarding settled and unsettled weather. Long range modelling at this point can be very vague and uncertain - from what I can gather, La Nina and when it will fully begin is a big reason for why they have been switching from between warm and dry and cool and wet. Nothing is clear cut at the moment - as I mentioned before I recall the models and sites like WSI predicting a warm and dry Summer in 2012 for the UK during that Spring only for the outlook to rightfully change once Summer had started and it was clear that predominantely cool and wet weather would be dominant. Also 2015 was predicted as cool and wet and whilst it was on the cooler side of average, for me it wasn't mostly wet and occasionally there were pleasant warm spells. In my opinion - La Nina beginning most likely at the end of Summer could see cool and unsettled weather more likely during the second half, particularly in August. But with ENSO neutral conditions pulling the strings during late spring and early summer this could mean more chances of a lot of warmer, dry proper Summer weather for the first part (May/June/July). I wouldn't say a clear cut settled and warm (2003) or unsettled and cool (2007/2011/2012) summer but a mixed bag much like 2014 as a recent good example.
  25. 1 point
    that is bizarre. According to Trevor Harley June was cool and cloudy (but dry) but here is a quote about July '83: "The hottest of the century (19.5C), and indeed the hottest month since records began. Also mostly dry and sunny, but with some severe thunderstorms. A ridge of high pressure extended from the Azores as the month started. The temperature reached the magic 32C somewhere in the country every day from the 12-16th, and the average daily maximum at Heathrow in the month was 27.6C. There were 17 consecutive days above 27C (80F) somewhere in the country between the 3rd and 19th, and 22 days above 27C in total; the temperature exceeded 21C somewhere in the country every day but one. The highest temperature of the month was 33.7C at Liphook (Hants.)" August was also hot and dry in the main.
  • Newsletter

    Want to keep up to date with all our latest news and information?

    Sign Up
×