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  1. 15 likes
    Just captured this whilst in the garden moments ago.
  2. 4 likes
    Hi guys Everyone accounted for and ready to go for Tour 2, heading way out west today, not expecting much in the way of chaseable daytime storms today but should be some elevated shots at lightning tonight or maybe "just" something in the daytime if Nam4k is to be believed. After that its the long slog north to a much more active pattern starting the weekend
  3. 4 likes
    Kent... The above may be true. However of more definite import and fact.... Yesterday on local radio (Birmingham area) we had several radio shows (some with TV camaras on hand), went onto the streets in several different areas of Bham.. Why is this worth mentioning? Well it was notable because they went into the immigrant areas. Almost without exception, the people were all outers!! The interviewers were perplexed and kept asking the obvious 'With that view you wouldn't have got in!' They all answered immediately that the area was full. That no more should be allowed in until the schools, hospitals and roads and housing in the area are fixed. They thought that many of the migrants now arriving were economic migrants and may of them had come here because of the benefits (unlike themselves!). With the now revised figures for migrants (800,000 last year), do not underestimate the migrant vote. It would seem that (unlike many on here), they are worried about the economic impact of the situation will have on there new country of residence. It really was a surprise to me. It looked almost 100% agreement on their positions. So I watched the TV footage (Midlands news) and it was in places like market places and the interviewer was not surrounded by fanatics. She just strolled around and chose people walking by at random. I couldn't see any obvious bias in the choice of person. From Poles to Indian to Caribbean it made little difference. Interesting if this vote category (I had assumed would be pro the EU) turn out to be the most strongly against. AND don't forget that there are about 5 million now somewhere in the UK, most of them are in the larger communities. Have these people been correctly taken into account by the pollsters? Will they in fact vote? They seemed VERY keen! It was an eye opener - and it follows on from my earlier postings on this forum about the effect on schools and migrants in this area. I hadn't realised that the migrants themselves would recognise the symptoms so quickly!!.. They clearly see the need to address these problems first and consider themselves unheard by the government and the EU. MIA
  4. 4 likes
    But That's no true is it Pit? At the height of the migrant crisis, Germany was insistent that all EU countries took their share, the other countries refused and it didn't happen. Germany, for historical reasons, as has been pointed out, is best placed to get the best outcome in negotiations with Turkey. It seems, as is so often the case, that leave supporters would rather see a worse result, that confirms their own prejudices, than a better one for all of the EU's citizens.
  5. 3 likes
    Oh here we go again taking the moral high ground yet again. Of which you might be interested in this little tale. It had been a long cruel winter and all the wild animals were starving. A little bird searched for food everywhere but to no avail until finally he settled on what he believed to be a cow pat. When he was happily full he flew to the top of a tree and sang his little heart out. Sadly he woke an angry farmer who rushed out with his gun and shot the little bird dead. Now the moral of this story is. If you are full of bull sh#t don't sing about it.
  6. 2 likes
    I'm hardly a fan of Farage, but I could never support cheating to try and prevent his election. I can't help but see a big f'in mess coming down south. There's so many things starting to boil over.
  7. 2 likes
    I don't see how leaving the EU would help any of those issues. The refugee crisis would be happening regardless of whether the UK was in or out of the EU. Islamic extremism how would being out of the EU effect that, the surge of right wing parties would get worse not better if the UK left and economic failures well if the UK is doing okay whats the issue? As for losing the plot well I'm not a Cameron fan and so I'd probably agree with you there but he wasn't stupid enough to bring Hitler into the debate. Heseltines hatchet job on Boris Johnson just highlighted what many people are thinking and finished off a disastrous few days for Johnson who looks less and less like a PM in waiting and more and more like the UK version of Donald Trump.
  8. 2 likes
    Just like the inners.
  9. 2 likes
    Are you really trying to tell me that the people leading and participating strongly in the 'out' campaign are doing it all their altruistic feelings for the UK - you must be joking! If a brexit were to occur I would bet my bottom dollar that most of these will have their snouts dug deep in a trough enabling them to gain at many people's expense through the opportunities presented in such a case - if anything it is more the remainers who have the best interests of the country at heart.
  10. 2 likes
    First long rumble of thunder here in North Hampshire at 4.35pm.
  11. 2 likes
    Yes, another term used (incorrectly) a little too frequently on here whenever showers are organised a little more linearly on radar, or when there's a narrow band of heavy rain ahead of a cold front. A Squall line is actually a type of MCS where thunderstorms are organised along a common lifting mechanism. A good shear environment is key to MCS formation. Main characteristic of squall lines is very strong (or damaging) straight line winds from downdraft/outflow ahead of the line.
  12. 2 likes
    Absolutely chucking it down when i left home! I've just headed a few miles to Corfe Castle and its just damp.
  13. 2 likes
    Translates as 'slave labour'. Hence: And why Human Rights need to be scrapped.
  14. 2 likes
    G'mornin GW. Yeah, this year has been something else. The pattern over the next week is almost identical to 2007 actually, just warmer. It wasn't until June 2007 that things got really bad though, with uppers of over 15C getting pulled into Beaufort. If we see anything like that this year, the thin and mobile ice will be decimated. Given what little is required to get this year into the bottom 2 on record, and the continually poor weather for ice retention, I really can't help but speculate about where the minimum will end up.
  15. 2 likes
    Got some lightning shots from Dans stream,there are quiet a few bolts going off there.
  16. 2 likes
    Finally got the real PC up and running again, bit late but a few snaps of the Great Lady passing through Thornton on Monday.
  17. 2 likes
    Well that maybe the case for you but not most people I speak to over the years or it would seem folk on here either. And you have never been sunburnt in the UK? I find that hard to believe unless you have very olive skin to begin with or are an infant. Yes we are a long way north but this is not Northern Scandinavia or Siberia, the sun still has a good kick to it. A UV of 6 at this time of year is enough to burn for most white people if you go out in the sun between 11am and 3pm. I am of Italian origin with roots in Sicily but can still burn a bit and tan.
  18. 1 like
    See you are clutching at straws again Kent - I would suggest that regardless of the outcome of the ref he could well face a leadership challenge because quite honestly he is not up to the job.
  19. 1 like
    Overall by far the best start to May since 2008, which saw very similiar conditions in the main until around this juncture - the second half was very unsettled though. Looking ahead a cool down on the cards but staying relatively settled, though there are signs the atlantic will become more of a force next week with a marked NW-SE split setting in... but still a good chance we will end up seeing the best May since 1992.. we've already seen the best spell of May weather since late May 2012. Yes we've had a lengthy dry period by Lake District standards, and it will be a hard act to record another dry spell of such longevity again this year.. more than a week is tough going. Wish the last 2 weeks were about to start now.. alas the outlook is very mixed, lets hope we can squeeze out a fine end in time for the Bank Holiday, which thankfully is late this year, we had a poor May Day Bank Holiday and it would be sods law to end up with a poor late May bank holiday, given we've had two crackers just gone.
  20. 1 like
    Much better timing this evening... We set off for our walk to Downton at ~5:30pm, with this lot chasing us down. It was as black as your hat, with fork lightning to the NW andd NE. Dashed into the White Horse for a couple of pints and waited for the whole thing to blow over. Hail, torrential rain; the lot. Walked back in beautiful sunshine. Today's result - Weather 1 Johnboy 1
  21. 1 like
    Half decent storm rolling through here, a strike every couple of minutes with some long deep rumbles of thunder.
  22. 1 like
    Very dark in the distance again. This time to the south of me.
  23. 1 like
    My wife has reported a torrential thunderstorm with hail and overhead lightning/thunder at Great Wishford. Here in Warminster a brief sharp shower and I didn't hear any thunder even when it was near Westbury!
  24. 1 like
    That's tour 2 up and running now after changeover day yesterday. This one is a three car tour, so that's 11 guests and 4 staff chasing. They are: Staff Paul Sherman Tom Lynch Ian Michaelwaite Graham Moore Guests Jason Nick Laura Lee (chase virgin) Steve Robin (chase virgin) Beverley (chase virgin) Mike Tony (chase virgin) Jane (chase virgin) David Lots of chase virgins ready to experience their first supercells, tornadoes and 'proper' thunderstorms - should be a fun tour! Here's one of the shiney fresh chase vehicles, I'm guessing it won't be quite as clean in a few days time..
  25. 1 like
    Well the rain arrived around midday, the front has really struggled to clear here with cloudy skies persisting.
  26. 1 like
    If Any storms break out on the Island they will avoid Ryde. Why?? Because i there. I was up Newport way a few weeks ago n Ryde got one. Anyone know how to disable my personal storm shield??? Polite answers only please!!!!
  27. 1 like
    Looks like it's kicked off over Andover..... 15 or so strikes in last 20 minutes? Anyone on site?
  28. 1 like
    You can say that again. I don't really know why I bother on marginal days like this.
  29. 1 like
    Fairly heavy shower just moved through here. Some fairly dark cloud based at times too. Have seen what may have been some scud cloud too.
  30. 1 like
    you think the island is in with a chance this evening Ryan.. Really hope so.... the folks on the isle of wight thunderstorm group are driving me nuts, messaging me when the next storm and going to be ..
  31. 1 like
    that might be true of your location but not for everybody at least I'b be surprised if it were
  32. 1 like
    You may have read my post from a day or so back Nick (my reference to attending a talk by Ben Page, CEO Ipsos Mori). Well, he also mentioned in his talk, that I attended the other week, they were noticing tentative signs of "Remain" beginning to firm up the other week, but due to the issues at the opinion polls for the May 15 GE, they were only keeping a watchful eye on the shift to 'Remain', back then (last week of April). Maybe the latest poll from them is just confirming (or reinforcing) that.
  33. 1 like
    Online obviously.
  34. 1 like
    Just saw that too. Maybe the orb poll was showing movement and MORI now picking it up. We are in the right timeframe now for final sharp movements to start appearing if we are to use e.g. the Scottish iref as an example.
  35. 1 like
    Another way you could look at reasons to vote is to apply the old adage of judging a person by the company they keep On the side of remain is big corporate powers the likes of Sainsburys JP Stanley Goldman Sachs etc. and indeed the IMF funded by the EU commission. All who espouse their own naked self interest and who rely on the Eurozone to maintain their position and power. None of who really care about the interests of the British people. On the leave side two knowledgeable former chancellors of the exchequers and a former head of the bank of England who spoke of the folly of the EU and stated we do not want to be in the same room when it explodes. My advice would be if you believe in the self serving vested interests of those who want us to remain then vote in. People of good faith who are not beholden to anyone and have only the interests of Britain at heart vote leave.
  36. 1 like
    Even as someone pro EU I have my doubts about the latest Ipsos/Mori phone poll which shows a huge lead for remain. Remain 55 (+6) Leave 37 (-2)
  37. 1 like
    6z has high pressure much more in control in the medium term (5-8 days), if slightly cool. Looks like everything is hinging on the low to the SW, and how it interacts with the jet. If it pushes a bit further east then we are in no-mans land, if it stays out west we have a chance of some warmth.
  38. 1 like
    I thought this was an 'unelected bureaucrat' of some from? Are the leave campaign lying on this issue?
  39. 1 like
    Kent you are letting your fanaticism re a brexit go to your head making you completely impervious to any other view but your own - for a start let your family vote in the way they wish without any undue pressure from yourself.
  40. 1 like
    Look closer to home for the reasons behind the structure of quotas and the operation of the CFP.
  41. 1 like
    I'm OK with it. Abstaining gives SNP a majority and NS gets the job. It also allows the Greens to keep their distance. It's early days and I'm sure there will be times when the Greens vote with the SNP and others when they will vote against. The real test will come when the SG is pitched against Westminster. To keep their credibility Greens have to support Scotland.
  42. 1 like
    I still believe the undecided voters will be a huge factor in deciding this in favour of brexit by the simple logic of, if you were an outer for reason of immigration would you make it public for fear of being called a racist etc. As Ive said before in the privacy of a polling booth thousands of more timid people will tick the exit box. All of my family are voting out they just don't know it yet lol.
  43. 1 like
    1 more post away to 9,000 post since 2003
  44. 1 like
    The immediate outlook is for North Atlantic depressions to make a bee-line towards the UK ; it looks like all parts of the country will be getting some particularly wet (and cool) weather from tomorrow Wednesday) onwards. This will make up for the last fortnight which has been dry over much of the country.
  45. 1 like
    So much of Europe under stupid infill/convective cloud today. Very few places with truly clear skies!
  46. 1 like
    The GEFS this morning has caught my eye. Looking at the GFS op at T240, which suddenly plucks out a stalled trough off the west of Ireland dragging up a southerly, you could think just one of those things that happens in FI: .. until you study the whole GEFS ensemble set, with 15 out of 21 members stalling a significant trough in a very similar place at the same timeframe - I could post any of them but for space sake I'll just post this one: Note the 850s mean gets close to 10C around that time for London, and not masses of rain (you need to click the link below to see): http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=306&y=141&ville=Londres ECM mean not as dramatic but clearly favouring an Atlantic trough too, more low pressure influence on this one but could easily go the same way afterwards: Given the recent tendency for the models not to see the full strength of the Atlantic until a nearer timeframe, more runs are certainly needed - but as far as we can see right now, heatwave conditions are definitely one of the options for the Bank Holiday weekend. If it's still looking like this by Saturday, get the suncream and the BBQ prepared.
  47. 1 like
    I believe that this summer will (most likely) be a fascinating case study into what happens when the Arctic has a lot more heat and moisture than at any time in (at least modern) recorded history. Does the much reduced thermal gradient cause the jet meander around like crazy, making the standard 'Azores High ridging northeast' scenario a rare sight, with inflated, 'tall' highs (extending to higher latitudes than usual) - generally varying between positions in the North Atlantic and across eastern Europe - being instead the dominant mode? Certainly, from what I know of thermodynamics, I would be surprised not to see some extreme 'stuck weather' patterns this summer, with severe continental heatwaves in at least a couple of regions in the hemisphere, such as what took place across part of Russia in 2010.
  48. 1 like
    Apparently windows 10 update prompts annoy weather forecasters too
  49. 1 like
    Summers 2005 and 2014 were nothing to complain about in my opinion: apart from August 2014 being ruined by Hurricane Bertha - other than that, I'd more or less take a repeat of those for this year @weatherguru14 I agree, after looking more deeply into weather patterns of previous years, I'm now starting to think that predominantely warmer than average dry settled springs are bad omens for Summer based on the average to disastrous recent summers that followed such Springs (2007, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012). I wouldn't say last summer was particularly bad but it was still cooler than average despite being dry, no proper heatwaves and real warm spells lasted no more than a day. As for Summer 2016 it's a fine line regarding settled and unsettled weather. Long range modelling at this point can be very vague and uncertain - from what I can gather, La Nina and when it will fully begin is a big reason for why they have been switching from between warm and dry and cool and wet. Nothing is clear cut at the moment - as I mentioned before I recall the models and sites like WSI predicting a warm and dry Summer in 2012 for the UK during that Spring only for the outlook to rightfully change once Summer had started and it was clear that predominantely cool and wet weather would be dominant. Also 2015 was predicted as cool and wet and whilst it was on the cooler side of average, for me it wasn't mostly wet and occasionally there were pleasant warm spells. In my opinion - La Nina beginning most likely at the end of Summer could see cool and unsettled weather more likely during the second half, particularly in August. But with ENSO neutral conditions pulling the strings during late spring and early summer this could mean more chances of a lot of warmer, dry proper Summer weather for the first part (May/June/July). I wouldn't say a clear cut settled and warm (2003) or unsettled and cool (2007/2011/2012) summer but a mixed bag much like 2014 as a recent good example.
  50. 1 like
    that is bizarre. According to Trevor Harley June was cool and cloudy (but dry) but here is a quote about July '83: "The hottest of the century (19.5C), and indeed the hottest month since records began. Also mostly dry and sunny, but with some severe thunderstorms. A ridge of high pressure extended from the Azores as the month started. The temperature reached the magic 32C somewhere in the country every day from the 12-16th, and the average daily maximum at Heathrow in the month was 27.6C. There were 17 consecutive days above 27C (80F) somewhere in the country between the 3rd and 19th, and 22 days above 27C in total; the temperature exceeded 21C somewhere in the country every day but one. The highest temperature of the month was 33.7C at Liphook (Hants.)" August was also hot and dry in the main.
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