Jump to content


Popular Content

Showing content with the highest reputation on 18/05/16 in all areas

  1. 5 points
    Fair play to Trump for suggesting talks with North Korea. However, if Corbyn or similar suggested the same the righties would be spitting and dribbling with fury!
  2. 4 points
    The multi-generational torture camps in NK are completely harmless, totally agree lfcdude.
  3. 4 points
    Monday was AMAZING! Saw a tornado, drove through golf ball-sized hail (bonnet dents, woo) and lightning strikes in the hundreds per minute range. On the Netweather tour now
  4. 3 points
    If Corbyn suggested this you'd be going mental, and don't even try to deny it.
  5. 2 points
    LOL. Reminds me of when, as a young lad, I met some tourists from SE England who'd come to stay in the holiday flat of the old farmhouse my grandparents owned. I was there for the summer and out chopping logs. The guests asked me where I lived and I said 'down south', and they replied 'Oh, us too (darn sarf), where?'. I said, with all honesty, 'Edinburgh' and they looked rather perplexed... But then I grew up in the Highlands and Edinburgh was in the south of Scotland.
  6. 2 points
    I'm hardly a fan of Farage, but I could never support cheating to try and prevent his election. I can't help but see a big f'in mess coming down south. There's so many things starting to boil over.
  7. 2 points
    So now they give unpaid job's to people on benefit's in one of thier back to work schemes, and give low paid jobs to prisoners, who get's the money there? In the US I think it's the prisoners but very low wage. So what about the Jobless that could do those jobs, which in the current regime could be very important for a families income. Are they supposed to just stay on the dole or what?
  8. 2 points
    After one's seen through all the nicey, nicey, touchy, feely rhetoric, yet another Tory money-for-nothing scam reveals itself? Is there anything that these 'Uriah Heeps' won't exploit for profit!
  9. 2 points
    My baby has had a cough for weeks, as it seems her fellow class mates, so it is NO shock that I feel awful with some kind of sore throaty, dizzy, headache, heavy chest and generally won't be doing the hoovering today \o/
  10. 2 points
    We will be hosting an AMA today on reddit.com/r/science with folks from Climate Central and the Weather Channel. When the AMA is live, I'll add a link in here. Here's the intro: "Hi, we're Bernadette Woods Placky and Brian Kahn from Climate Central and Carl Parker, a hurricane specialist from the Weather Channel. The last 11 months in a row have been some of the most abnormally warm months the planet has ever experienced and are toeing close to the 1.5°C warming threshold laid out by the United Nations as an important climate milestone. We've been keeping an eye on the record-setting temperatures as well as some of the impacts from record-low sea ice to a sudden April meltdown in Greenland to coral bleaching in the Great Barrier Reef. We're here to answer your questions about the global warming hot streak the planet is currently on, where we're headed in the future and our new Twitter hashtag for why these temperatures are #2hot2handle. We will be back at 3 pm ET to answer your questions, Ask us anything!"
  11. 2 points
    Here's brief summary of what I expect for summer 2016. Temperatures will be close to 1981-2010 normal values and in specific terms, CET around 14.7 for June, 16.8 for July and 16.2 for August (summer mean 15.9). If there is any regional trend it would be towards lower anomalies in the south and higher in the north (of the UK and Ireland) meaning less difference than usual. This would be due to expected persistent frontal zone over northern France which would spread more frequent cloud and rain into south coast regions and promote more frequent dry spells further north. Thus I would expect rainfall to be above normal south of central Wales to east Anglia and near normal in much of north Wales, Ireland and northern England, trending to below normal in Scotland. (PREDICTED SUMMER RANK for CET if my monthly averages verify would be tied 79th with five others, out of 358 -- recent summers with the same average of 15.90 were in 2014, 1999 and 1982 ... further back the ties were 1950 and 1852 ... of course that's a very narrow validation band, if you want to consider all recent summers between 15.80 and 16.00 (the math places them in groups of .0, .3 and .7), then since 1950 we find the following in chronological order, including the ones already mentioned: 1950, 1970, 1982, 1996, 1999, 2002 2009, 2010, 2014 -- oddly, there are no recent summers from 15.93 to 16.07, so those listed are all cases from 15.8 to 15.9). This is a list of recent summers that were warmer than I am predicting to give you an idea of how 79th out of 358 looks in modern data: (WARMER THAN MY PREDICTION FOR 2016 -- 15.9 C -- (since 1949) -- 1976 (17.77) -- ranked 1st all years 1995 (17.37) -- ranked 3rd 2003 (17.33) -- ranked 4th 2006 (17.23) -- ranked 5th 1983 (17.07) -- ranked 7th 1975 (16.93) -- ranked 12th 1959, 1997 (16.57) 1955 (16.53) 1949 (16.5) 1989 (16.47) 1984 (16.33) 2013 (16.27) 2004 (16.23) 2005 (16.20) 1990, 1994 (16.17) 2001 (16.1) So that would rank it 19th warmest of the 68 summers since I was born anyway (granted I have missed most of them and my summers of return are a horror story having managed to pick 1965, 1972 and 1988 as well as 2007 briefly). For comparison, the coldest summer since 1949 was 1954 at 14.07 closely followed by 1956 at 14.13 ... my parents emigrated in 1957 and now I am starting to see why that may be the case. I don't expect long intervals of strong blocking rather, some weeks of weak blocking tendency alternating with periods of rather sluggish Atlantic dominated weather. There could be one or two decent warm spells in this mixture as well as one or two wet intervals. My best bet for a warm spell or heat wave would be around first third of July, second best looking index values come in very late July and first week of August. Mid-July and late August appear more likely to have the wet spells. June in general looks rather bland and with some tendency to warm spells might be a fairly decent June compared to some recently. In North America I am expecting to see a rather normal pattern too, the slowly dissipating El Nino signal over the eastern Pacific combined with a long-term trough tendency over the east will not entirely dissipate so that western regions may have a relatively hot and dry summer while central and eastern regions might come in close to average with an equal mixture of warm and cool spells. I would expect the hurricane season to be a more active one than the last several, so will be predicting 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes. The recent average is 14, 7 and 3. My hunch would be that if my forecast busts, it will be warmer rather than colder than I am predicting. The appearance of both 1983 and 1975 in the warm list suggests that you can get a decent summer after a fading El Nino event and after a record warm December so that those two drivers are not automatically to be considered contra-indications for a warm summer. Summer 1935 (after the other previously tied for warmest December 1934) was 16.27, also a fairly warm summer. I tend to be conservative with my seasonal forecasts so perhaps I should say about equal chances of near normal and 1 deg above normal, and a slight chance of a top 20 contender. I think we'll beat last summer's 15.27 (would have been 15.17 without 1st of July so if you were away that day, you missed the main event of summer 2015). If last summer could produce that 6th hottest day ever in the CET record (going by memory) then this summer should be watched for another blast since we are seeing rather frequent blocking. I do suspect that there will be some heavy rain at times in the south since some index values in my research are suggesting split flow and frequent frontal zone set-up across northern France or the Channel. And I would not be surprised if there were drought issues in parts of Scotland.
  12. 1 point
    And what did they think of me when I said I was from the 'Sneck'??? Gor blimey Govner!
  13. 1 point
    Scotland should be its own nation, IMO; I have no problem with any of that...But - PLEASE - invite me there afterwards?
  14. 1 point
    Ooooooooooooo......you are awful........... but I like you!
  15. 1 point
    I'm almost sure that it was Nigel Farage who first raised the issue of possible cheating by the Conservatives. Looking at that article you can understand why - an overspend of almost £19,000 on the Thanet seat alone?
  16. 1 point
    I pondered this issue... If the electoral commission and police conclude that the Tories did 'cheat', then surely they must roll back all legislation they have passed using their majority? If someone took them to court with this as the core argument, it would be hard to conclude otherwise. Democracy is about free and fair elections after all.
  17. 1 point
    A shocking 2nd half performance from Liverpool. Looked like a 1st division FL side. Almost as bad as Spurs at Newcastle the other day.
  18. 1 point
    Two heavy showers after the initial front, one of which dropped 7mm in under an hour. A total of 12.6mm. The sun properly came out late afternoon, it helped push the temp up to 15.2°C
  19. 1 point
    Ah, so because you think China used to have these torture camps, that it make North Korea having them now completely harmless?
  20. 1 point
    Much better timing this evening... We set off for our walk to Downton at ~5:30pm, with this lot chasing us down. It was as black as your hat, with fork lightning to the NW andd NE. Dashed into the White Horse for a couple of pints and waited for the whole thing to blow over. Hail, torrential rain; the lot. Walked back in beautiful sunshine. Today's result - Weather 1 Johnboy 1
  21. 1 point
    Thanks for filling me in...Isn't that what NATO is supposed to do - protect other NATO states? SO9?
  22. 1 point
    Well there is an increase in American troops in Poland, they keep going there for exercises then not going home after. Although it's been a while since I looked into it. I was watching the situation closely for a bit when the Ukraine thing first happened. Don't know if they are still there or not. Not sure about China though.
  23. 1 point
    Not had a good day today. Since last week I've developed a very large abscess on my left buttock. Now there is no good place to have an abscess but this is one of the worst. Anyway saw my GP at 8.30 this morning and she referred me straight away to surgical admissions at the Royal Cornwall. So ten mile taxi journey and was there by 0930. Looked at pretty quickly by the junior doctor who said you need to wait for the registrar surgeon to have a look. In this ward that means when he has a break from the operating theatre. He turned up at three took a look and said you have two choices. I can sort this here and now and you will be home in a couple of hours or you can have GA which means waiting for a theatre slot and possible an overnight stay. Now what sort of choice is that? Well I was home by five. Now for a quiet, hopefully pain free, evening. Note to self. Do not wander into the referendum thread.
  24. 1 point
    Horrific scientific experiment creates KIM JONG TRUMP
  25. 1 point
    The AMA is now live https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/4jwao6/science_ama_series_were_weather_and_climate/
  26. 1 point
    As I noted in the UK thread. From the BBC article. Basically the aim here is to use prisoners as slave Labour. Simple as that. Hence the need to end ECHR Human Rights and create a Tory bill of Rights. -- Another interesting point here is that we could end up with a situation where Scotland will no longer agree to extradite people for trial in England. After all, it would raise questions over whether we could send people for to a country which doesn't respect internationally agreed human rights laws.
  27. 1 point
    It's structure and lightning for me. After all that's why it's called "Storm" Chasing not tornado chasing. That said the odd tornado or two is nice!!
  28. 1 point
    They must. All laws made by Holyrood must be compatible with ECHR; it's written into the Scotland Act / Devolution settlement. And there'll be no changes without the permission of the Scottish government. Arguably, even a referendum would be required. --- What is interesting, is that if it did go ahead in England and maybe Wales, the concept of a British citizen would end, as we would have at least two types of citizen subject to different Human rights laws. At the moment, while we live under different legal jurisdictions, we are all the same when it comes to fundamental human rights.
  29. 1 point
    Sunday and Monday were also good days. Reaching the mid-high teens and were sunny. Today wasn't horrendous but not as sunny. The rain has finally moved in this evening. Mild at 14c and this should ensure the grass rockets now...
  30. 1 point
    I'm OK with it. Abstaining gives SNP a majority and NS gets the job. It also allows the Greens to keep their distance. It's early days and I'm sure there will be times when the Greens vote with the SNP and others when they will vote against. The real test will come when the SG is pitched against Westminster. To keep their credibility Greens have to support Scotland.
  31. 1 point
  32. 1 point
    1 more post away to 9,000 post since 2003
  33. 1 point
    Tour 1 has gone well this year lol
  34. 1 point
    And, whenever I select this one, I get 'adverts' for blocked arteries - these Google ads are very clever: Please call Help The Aged???
  35. 1 point
    Yup he will be more left than Hilary. Go figure. Be afraid, be very afraid.
  36. 1 point
    Apparently windows 10 update prompts annoy weather forecasters too
  37. 1 point
    I understand your point, but what I had in mind was more isolated to this winter. If you look at 1739-40 you see a case where it suddenly reverted to the Maunder climate after quite a warm decade and three active solar cycles. There, I was thinking perhaps winter 1739-40 had the right setup to take advantage of the lingering closer boundaries of ice and open water, so that the long hiatus from severe cold was quickly overcome. Conversely in 2015-16 the synoptics were favourable for a mild start to winter and so the circulation managed to over-ride the recent slight downturn in the ongoing "climate change" period of steady increases. Although solar activity now favours colder winters, this opportunity for a return to the mild days was easily taken (and in terms of Nov-Dec, gobbled down with glee). But I don't think this means future winters will face the same fate necessarily, these longer-term considerations about solar activity will tend to dig in, and looking at 1740, it wasn't too long before some quite mild winters showed up again as they often did in the 1730s. I think we are in a similar position in solar terms to about 1804-06, which is a good place to be for cold fanciers, there were several outstanding cold winters in the two decades that followed. It's all a question of how much the human signal will interfere with these solar dynamics. My personal opinion is that the modification will remain slight, in the 0.5 to 1.0 C deg range. If a winter is going to be a good one, warming it by 0.5 to 1.0 will not destroy the end result (as we saw at both ends of 2010).
  38. 1 point
    STRONG SOLAR INTERVALS ... MEAN WINTER CET Dec-Feb vs POSITION IN SOLAR CYCLE P-7 _P-6 _P-5 _P-4 _P-3 _P-2 _P-1 _Peak _ P+1 _P+2 _P+3 _P+4 _P+5 _P+6 _P+7 _P+8 ____ 3.8 _ 4.2 _ 4.5 _ 4.3 _ 0.8 _ 3.3 _ 3.2 _ 3.8 _ 4.0 _ 3.8 _ 4.5 _______________ 3.1 _ 5.2 _ 3.7 _ 3.1 _ 3.7 _ 3.3 _ 1.7 _ 4.6 _ 2.5 _ 4.7 _________ 5.0 _ 6.1 _ 4.1 _ 5.0 _ 5.6 _ 4.7 _ 5.6 _-0.4 _ 2.8 _ 3.1 _ 3.4 _ 3.1 _________ 3.2 _ 2.2 _ 4.8 _ 3.2 _ 5.0 _ 5.1 _ 3.2 _ 3.1 _ 3.3 _ 3.5 _ 2.3 _ 4.3 ______________ 2.4 _ 3.2 _ 5.2 _ 2.7 _ 5.8 _ 4.4 _ 2.6 _ 4.6 _ 2.7 ___________________ 1.4 _ 2.9 _ 3.0 _ 3.3 _ 4.4 _ 2.6 _ 2.9 _ 3.8 ______________ 2.9 _ 4.7 _ 2.2 _ 2.9 _ 2.6 _ 5.6 _ 1.4 _ 3.4 _ 4.2 ______________ 3.2 _ 1.2 _ 1.4 _ 3.0 _ 4.1 _ 3.8 _ 2.1 _ 5.7 _ 4.4 _ 2.6 _ 3.9 _ 4.8 ______________ 6.5 _ 4.7 _ 3.4 _ 3.8 _ 1.4 _ 3.6 _ 3.8 _ 1.6 _ 3.1 _ 4.4 ______________ 4.3 _ 1.5 _ 5.8 _ 1.7 _ 4.1 _ 5.1 _ 3.5 _ 5.0 _ 4.8 _ 4.5 _ 3.1 _________ 1.9 _ 3.8 _ 3.8 _ 4.2 _ 5.1 _ 2.3 _ 2.7 _ 4.3 _ 5.7 _ 3.7 _ 2.7 ______________ 5.3 _ 4.7 _ 4.5 _ 6.8 _ 3.0 _ 2.4 _ 5.2 _ 4.1 _ 4.9 _ 2.8 _ 4.1 _________ 5.1 _ 5.3 _ 5.2 _ 4.3 _ 5.5 _ 1.5 _ 4.2 _ 3.9 _ 5.6 _ 5.4 _ 4.9 _________ 5.7 _ 3.9 _ 5.8 _ 4.7 _ 4.2 _ 4.4 _ 1.7 _ 4.6 _ 3.8 _ 4.8 ______________ 4.1 _ 3.2 _ 6.1 _ 3.0 _ 5.4 _ 4.6 _ 4.7 _ 1.5 _ 2.6 _ 2.2 ______________ 5.9 _ 4.3 _ 3.7 _ 4.5 _ 1.1 _ 5.1 _ 5.6 _ 5.1 _ 2.9 _ 3.9 ______________ 3.5 _ 4.1 _ 3.5 _ 2.9 _ 5.5 _ 4.2 _ 3.6 _ 4.6 _ 4.9 _ 3.6 ________ -0.3 _ 3.5 _ 3.3 _ 4.4 _ 5.1 _ 3.5 _ 3.2 _ 3.3 _ 4.4 _ 4.9 _ 4.9 ________ 5.4 _ 6.4 _ 5.2 _ 3.3 _ 4.1 _ 1.6 _ 4.6 _ 4.5 _ 2.6 _ 4.3 _ 4.2 _____________ 2.7 _ 2.9 _ 3.5 _ 5.3 _ 6.5 _ 6.2 _ 3.0 _ 4.6 _ 4.7 _ 4.7 ________ 5.9 _ 3.0 _ 4.0 _ 6.1 _ 5.4 _ 5.4 _ 4.5 _ 5.4 _ 4.7 _ 5.1 _ 5.2 _ 4.1 _ 6.4 Means: ___ 3.8 _ 4.0 _ 4.1 _ 4.0 _ 4.0 _ 4.0 _ 3.6 _ 4.0 _ 3.5 _ 4.0 _ 4.0 _ 3.8 _ 3.8 _ 5.6 Analysis First we could compare the profiles of the strong solar intervals and the weak solar intervals: STRONG ___ 3.8 _ 4.0 _ 4.1 _ 4.0 _ 4.0 _ 4.0 _ 3.6 _ 4.0 _ 3.5 _ 4.0 _ 4.0 _ 3.8 _ 3.8 _ (5.6) WEAK _(3.8)_3.3 _ 4.0 _ 2.8 _ 3.8 _ 2.8 _ 3.1 _ 3.7 _ 3.8 _ 3.4 _ 2.9 _ 2.4 _ 3.1 _ 4.4 _ (3.1) _ (2.3) The values in brackets are based on very few cases and can be largely ignored. The main point of comparison is that the winters during the weak solar activity show a tendency to be colder about 2-4 years before and after the solar cycle peaks, when compared to periods of strong activity. The comparison of peak years (also P+1 and P+2) are very similar. Also quite similar would be the cases from quiet years between peaks in either weak or strong activity. It is interesting to note that colder winters in the active phase tend to cluster near sunspot peaks, with the notable exceptions of 1784 and 1963 (the -0.3 value that starts the fourth last row of strong data). All of these notable cold winters occurred in peak sunspot years: 1838, 1917, 1947, 1979. Other notable cold winters in strong periods were a bit after sunspot peaks such as 1740 (+3) and 1929 (+1). Overall, I think what this tells us is that intervals of lower solar activity tend towards colder winters but these will cluster away from the weak solar activity peaks that might occur, more than during them or for that matter at furthest points from them. The differences are barely significant for the numbers of cycles involved. It can be seen from the above comparisons that years from 4 to 1 year before cycles peak average 0.9 C deg colder in the weak intervals, and again from years that are 3 to 5 years after these peaks, the difference averages 1.1 C deg colder. It should be noted that weak activity was assigned to a total of 136 years out of 357. It might be worth keeping track of this too -- the most similar data to 2016 appear to be from 1834 which turned out to be a transition from weak to strong activity. While most forecasts are calling for a prolonged downturn in solar activity, what happened after 1834 was a sudden surge in activity and a very short period between two peaks (1829-30 then 1837-38). We could also speculate that if there is in fact very much cause and effect involved in these linkages beyond random variability, the first of the three active periods (1712 to 1794) appeared to "short circuit" after a few strong cycles and the signature of cycles from 1738 to 1787 rather closely resembles the signature of weak periods more than strong intervals. Perhaps what happened was that the warming induced by the solar activity could not be sustained after such a long cold interval as the Maunder (and the associated locations of ice boundaries to the north of Britain) and eventually (1739-40) the rather strong warming ongoing then quicjkly reverted to the Maunder style cold which then did not entirely leave the scene for the rest of this active phase (a more variable climate 1750s to 1790s) before the Dalton weak signal re-established more consistently still, the generally cold signature. The 19th century strong cycles seemed to be quite unreliable too for sustained warmth and one could argue that the Dalton and the later weak cycles around 1883 to 1906 merged into one very long cold interval without much interruption with only a few mild winters such as 1846 and 1869. The lack of sustained winter cold after the period 2009-13 may be an opposite case where the solar forcing could not overcome the climate controlling large scale signature of the long warm period before the solar downturn. We may be seeing the opposite of 1740 happening this winter (in this case, reversal of an unsustainable cold signal).
  39. 1 point
This leaderboard is set to London/GMT+01:00
  • Newsletter

    Want to keep up to date with all our latest news and information?
    Sign Up
  • Create New...