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  1. 7 points
    HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON THURSDAY MAY 12TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Troughs of Low pressure near Southernmost England will be pushed away South by a freshening NNE wind and fresher air moving down from the North over the coming days as a ridge of High pressure moves in close to Western Britain at the weekend. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND/OR FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK is currently near 8000ft but will fall markedly from the North in the coming days, this fall most prolific over the East where values nearer to 3500ft look likely by the weekend and nearer to 5000ft in the far West. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Less warm but becoming dry in the South with some rain too especially across the North and West. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream's flow which has been well South of the UK over the coming week or so will weaken and move away to the East across the Meditteranean Sea whereas the Northern arm remains weak and pushes a spore of energy South across the UK over the weekend. Then as we move through the rest of the forecast period the flow remains very variable with a split flow still looking likely with one arm to the North of the UK and one undulating to the South of the UK at times. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream NEW GFS OPERATIONAL The New GFS Operational Run today shows a lot of quite benign conditions over the next few weeks. Most of the time through the period we are governed by a ridge of High pressure stretching up from the SW with a lot of NW winds across the UK with a lot of dry if rather cloudy weather and with chilly nights where skies clear but nearer to average temperatures by day. Through the second week there is a more generally unsettled period indicated especially in the South as Low pressure edges up from the South but by the end of the run conditions revert to fine weather again for many as High pressure ridges in from the West again. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif GFS CONTROL RUN The Control Run is relatively similar with just the fact of the High pressure ridge receding far enough away at times to allow more unsettled westerly winds through the second week with some rain possible for all. Some warm and settled conditions under High pressure close by looks as though it could develop late in the period across the South and East. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The clustering today for day 14 shows a lot of High pressure around the UK in one shape or form with a lot of fine and settled weather likely across the UK with temperatures near or above average in light anticyclonic airflow patterns. A few members prefer to have more of an Atlantic cyclonic influence to the pattern under lower pressure to the NW although even on these members runs High pressure is shown quite close to the South and East. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows a slack Northerly flow over the UK at the weekend with cooler than of late conditions and the odd shower scattered about on the eastern flank of a ridge of High pressure just to the west. Then next week it looks like winds back towards the West and with Low pressure closing in on Northern Britain more unsettled weather with some rain on a westerly breeze looks likely for a time towards midweek. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show the flow from the North persisting across the next 4-5 days with a cooling theme as the inherent warmth currently across the UK is displaced by colder sourced Arctic air with bright fresh days with chilly nights with a touch of frost. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM The theme of GEM this morning is one of rising pressure displacing the warm and humid and unsettled conditions across the South of the UK into more settled and colder North winds with bright sells and the odd shower over the weekend. Then as we move through next week winds back Westerly and a phase of unsettled weather with some rain looks likely to move across from the West midweek with a trend then towards a NW/SE split with further rain at times in the NW while the South and East see longer drier spells when it may become warmer at times as well. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM has cooler weather on the way by the weekend too as the winds back Northerly for a time. A ridge close to the West of the UK over the weekend should bring dry and bright if cooler weather for many and as winds back Westerly next week the theme is for more unsettled conditions across the North and West while fine conditions are more likely to last longer in the South and East although even here some rain is shown to affect these parts a week or so from now. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM today shows the cooler Northerly flow at the weekend with largely dry and bright conditions with just an odd shower. Then as we move through next week a spell of Atlantic Westerly winds seems likely with some rain at times largely but not exclusively towards the North and West. then towards the second weekend High pressure builds in closer to the South and SE with a strong NW/SE split developing with fine and warm conditions across the South and east with the more unsettled weather held well towards the North and West by Day 10. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) Last nights 10 day Mean Chart is showing a theme close to that of the Operational Run at Day 10 with High pressure close to the SE and any unsettled weather more likely towards the far NW. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS As yesterday the main emphasis shown by the models continues to point towards a return to a westerly flow across the UK next week. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.4 pts and GFS at 99.2 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.1 pts to UKMO's 96.3 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.5 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 88.5 pts to UKMO at 86.8pts and GFS at 83.1 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 61.5 pts to 51.2 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 44.7 pts to 37.0 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS The next few weeks present few if any troublesome features to talk about with a lot of quite benign conditions likely across the British Isles as the pattern resets to normal UK synoptics over the next 4 to 5 days. The final embers of the warm and muggy air still over the UK will be pulled away South in the coming 48 hours as a weak cold front runs South tomorrow and Friday night. A quiet and benign weekend of weather is then likely with a a lot of cloud at times, the odd shower and some chilly nights. Then next week the theme is for winds to back towards the West with the risk of some rain almost anywhere for a time but more especially over the North but temperatures should recover somewhat especially by night. Moving further on still the most popular consensus appears to be for High pressure to be building close to the South or SE with these areas seeing a lot more in the way of fine and warm weather developing later in the period but the NW in particular looks like holding on to more of an Atlantic cyclonic influence with some rain. And that's about it really quite a quiet period of weather overall likely with nothing unpleasant or unusual being shown for the period anywhere and after a chilly few nights at the weekend when gardeners and growers need to take note of a risk of ground frost for a couple of nights this risk should be removed with average temperatures at least achieved for most of the period thereafter for all areas. Next Update Friday May 13th 2016 from 09:00
  2. 5 points
    Seeing as the BOE has been mentioned with their input. The former Governer Mervyn King said one month ago. Quote. "The one size fits all economies of the EU was doomed for failure from the beginning. Its a disaster that will be totally dominated by Germany. It will soon be game over for the grand Euro project." Believe who you want.
  3. 5 points
    A lot of toasty runs appearing for next weekend - this morning's are not the first. Long way off but one to watch:
  4. 4 points
    Indeed! UKIP are relatively weak compared to many other European far-right movements. But do Eurosceptics elsewhere actually suggest removing their country from the EU? Hell no, they're simply the parties who scrutinise and push change the hardest. An example is the referendum in the Netherlands on approving the EU-Ukraine agreement. There and elsewhere it was a national debate that warranted a referendum, whereas here the British population are barely aware of the contents of the agreement. 'Ignorance' is a loaded word, but it's certainly a product of the content, or lack thereof, in the UK media. So the 'In or Out' question becomes something of a referendum that centres on identity rather than policy.
  5. 4 points
    Looking at the anomalies this morning there is some indication of it getting warmer and more settled towards the end of the month although of course it's nowhere near a done deal. In the nearer 6-10 time frame not bad agreement with troughs western Atlantic and Scandinavia/eastern Europe with the Azores HP nudging in from the south west. In a nutshell during this period we lose the current patter as the trough moves east and HP builds from the SW. This is but transitory as the eastward movement continues with the trough out west moving to mid Atlantic. This introduces a south westerly upper flow and portends some wet and windy weather, particularly to the north and west. But this may well be short lived as the indications are, at the moment, that the trough will weaken and for heights to build in the eastern Atlantic. Thus more settled weather and temps above average.
  6. 4 points
    Curiously I don't know anyone who's going to vote out, which highlights that the UK has huge divisions across multiple demographics. Although I barely talk about politics outwith this site, and I think that both sides can agree that 'Out' voters are generally more militant. Being from rural Derbyshire, I'm not sure if I'd want to casually disclose my political views in the workplace given that I was exposed to/lectured some fervently right-wing bile when I was growing up in my teenage years there! I've already made that mistake by coming out as gay in a less-than-welcoming environment.
  7. 3 points
    Maybe to pun the phrase mike uses on here.. you and inners should listen to other side instead of making stupid comments
  8. 3 points
    Oh dear. The swivel-eyed outraged once more, because the governor of the BoE is doing his job. As usual, anybody who dares to speak out against Brexit, has their reputation attacked and honesty questioned.
  9. 3 points
  10. 3 points
    So...just because outers are fighting each other like a bunch of school-kids, the BBC's impartiality must be brought into question? Those headlines were also prominent on LBC and Sky, this morning...Maybe they're part of the 'conspiracy' too??
  11. 3 points
    I quite agree that the alarm bells must be sounding in the corridors of power in Brussels because without a doubts there is discontent rising in the EU as a whole so if they have any savvy at all there should take notice. This is where, in my view that the UK could take a lead by developing support with other members to press for the reforms we need. This is, also in my view where UKIP, have been so wrong in my view - instead of carrying on their destructive manner, it seems with the intent of bringing the EU down altogether, having identified the areas necessary for reform they should have set about gathering support to press for this reform. To destroy something is relatively easy but to build something is much harder, though the results will be far better. As it is at present they are about as much use as a chocolate tea pot in respect of furthering the wellbeing of EU citizens including those of the UK.
  12. 3 points
    They will probably let us win for a change just to butter us up.
  13. 3 points
    I wonder if the BBC has now decided it's pro EU. Lunch time headlines "Vote Leave considering suing ITV after being stood against Cameron" On the website you actually find buried away under politics that it's Cameron who's refused to stand against the Vote leave people (this was actually reported as such very much earlier before 7 this morning) leaving just Farage and Cameron. Vote leave should be present and I'm surprised at Cameron as refusing to have vote leave present. Farage arguing with Vote leave would be better for Cameron as it would keep him out of the spotlight. Cameron is very poor unless he's been practicing like Cloggers will find himself destroyed against Farage.
  14. 3 points
    A quick look at t144 and GFS still wants the hight to have more of an influence compared to UKMO and ECM GFS then keeps the high close by ECM isn't a washout by any means the south would hold onto the best of the dry weather with high pressure always close by and becoming very warm at times too
  15. 3 points
    Trump is going to end up softening his stance on everything, he'll be a feminist democrat by the weekend
  16. 3 points
    The tourists and West Highland Way walkers have been completely bamboozled by the ski tourers and snowboarders in the Glencoe Carpark and outside the Cafe at the end of the day the past few days. Instinct might be that the snow would be a disgusting slush puppy, but the Main Basin in particular has been pretty much perfect smooth fast crunchy granular Spring Snow - you know it's proper Spring Snow (or Corn as they call it in California) when the snow gets better to ski on the hotter it gets (or the heavier the rain gets in naff weather)! The reason is the large granular snow crystals allow for rapid draining of meltwater (or rain), this in turn rounds the snow crystals making the surface faster to ski on. the warm wind though melting more snow is also drying the surface of the snowpack - some snow will be getting lost to sublimation too in the dry air. Shame the Main Basin T-bar isn't running, though it if was we'd probably have moguls the size of small cars by now, where as those prepared to hike get perfect smooth snow!
  17. 2 points
    Glad to have the choice Kent, I choose not to believe your attempts of obtaining fulfilled wishes.
  18. 2 points
    What do you think I was doing watching the film? I know your side is that is why I will be voting 'remain'. You have obviously put your all into that film and come up with not very much - I'll let you into a little secret - there is another side to this debate but you are quite unware of that being deafened by your own opinions.
  19. 2 points
    Hello Knocker, It rather reminds me of an episode of Ever Decreasing Circles, where Richard Briars was marching along with others, but he complained that everyone else was marching out of sync and not him that was out of step with everyone. Kind Regards Dave
  20. 2 points
  21. 2 points
    GFS 12z shows HP building in strongly deep in FI
  22. 2 points
    I think its disgusting. With out Nigel.. Their would be no vote.. Thats a fact
  23. 2 points
    Thanks. So what do you make of Vote Leaves attitude to Nigel Farage? I don't see the big deal in ITV having him on. Vote Leave will have loads of other opportunities as there will be loads of programmes over the next 6 weeks. I think its pretty ungrateful of Vote Leave to keep slagging off Farage,without him and the rise of UKIP they never would have got the referendum.
  24. 2 points
    Has everyone missed me? lol Had a great holiday in Barcelona and am now refreshed for the final leg of Project Reality versus Project Constant Moaning. Does Vote Leave ever stop whining, not content with threatening ITV they now want Mark Carney sacked for daring to state the obvious. Its pretty clear that it won't take much to send the UK economy into troubled waters given the recovery is losing steam and all recent data makes poor reading.
  25. 2 points
    He's not a great speaker, he is a flanneler, devoid of substance, and preying on folks fears in his search for power. These attributes do not make him a great speaker. Edit: x posts with above.
  26. 2 points
    Ah, Gobsh!te: The Movie!
  27. 2 points
    NSIDC are now publishing their uncalibrated concentration charts using the new sensors, and Wipneus on the sea ice forum is kindly providing the numerical values. I will update the data and stats thread over the next few days but for now, the NSIDC extent with the 5 day mean is lowest on record by just over 400k, and is 1.06 million below 2012. it's also been lowest on record for 25 days consecutive days, and in the bottom 3 for 47 consecutive days. I reckon I'll have to extent the graph down below 11.5 soon...
  28. 2 points
    Oh dear SS, it seems as if the anti-UKIP conspiracy runs even deeper than previously believed? Then again, can a Brexit possibly bugger the economy any worse than what George Osborne is doing, all on his lonesome?
  29. 2 points
    Actually I heard the vote leave chap interviewed on R4 this morning and none of it was about Cameron although it was difficult to know what it was about as he spent most of the interview dodging the questions.Essentially it was about ITV inviting Farage, who is not a member of the Leave team, and not an official Leave person. Ergo the ITV were showing bias. All quite pathetic but for once it wasn't Cameron's doing.
  30. 2 points
    Unusual circumstances - the Tory party was falling apart and our Dave had a brainstorm and thought that this referendum would cure it - how wrong he was!
  31. 2 points
    Leaving the European Union would be a “major mistake” that would cost Britain in both the short and the long term, almost 200 economists are warning today. In a letter to The Times, 171 academic and 25 non-academic economists say that Brexit would “entail significant long-term costs”. Uncertainty as Britain negotiates new trade relationships with the EU and the rest of the world would “weigh heavily for many years”. The immediate aftermath of a vote to leave in next month’s referendum would probably see a “short-term shock to confidence”, they said. The intervention by so many university academics will strengthen the Remain campaign, which claims that the economic argument has been won.
  32. 2 points
    http://www.theweek.co.uk/eu-referendum/65461/eu-referendum-poll-will-scotland-swing-the-vote Article showing how strong a backing the in campaign as got in Scotland nearly 75% could Scotland be the fly in the ointment for the out campaign.
  33. 2 points
    The Scottish Independent City of Glasgow isn't known as a UKIP heartland; they just got 2% on the PR list vote there. Glasgow subsample from the latest full Scottish poll by Survation was 62% Remain / 16% Leave. EDIT If you joined your local Orange Lodge you'd find your #The2% loyalist outers. EDIT2 What is interesting in Scotland, is that there is basically no meaningful variation in EU stance across any demographic factor, unlike England. Older folks maybe a smidgen more anti (this group are the most 'Leave' south of the border), but still strongly pro. Even by party political support there's not any major differences, with even Scots Tories firmly in. Don't know what the score is with Skippers as they are a tiny fringe party so no breakdown; I think we can presume they are the only outers by party support. Anyway, it means the Leave campaign have no target groups nor even any area of Scotland they might focus on.
  34. 2 points
    Yup he will be more left than Hilary. Go figure. Be afraid, be very afraid.
  35. 2 points
  36. 2 points
    Dead. Over. Forget it. You can never be independent. You don't even have oil any more as a 'bonus'. Also, since it's 'The only industry in Scotland' ((C) UKOK) of course... Downturns are tough, but part of the cycle. Scotland is a massively energy rich country, and as we slowly wean the world off oil in the years to come, it's ready to power it with renewables. --- EDIT. Oh, and I did the hydrate inhibitor evaluation study for Cayley. In between posting on politics forums that is.
  37. 2 points
    I don't see what they write anymore Pete. There are so many on ignore now, it's like a cabinet meeting on June 24th! I took a couple of days to decide what to do after Monday, when the racists showed themselves for what they are, but they're not going to hound me off a forum I've been on for about 12 years. So I'll have my say, and poke 'em in the eye when the chance arises (metaphorically of course), although given the general level of intelligence, that's fish in a barrel stuff. Keep it EU! P.S. No offence to the small handful of thoughtful & respectful leave posters, your genuine concerns are noted & believe it or not, appreciated, even by traitorous scum like me
  38. 2 points
    I see Scotland recorded both the hottest and coldest temps in the UK yesterday.
  39. 2 points
    Hi guys, I was lucky enough to see this storm move over Arran yesterday, I seen about 3 flashes of lightning, picture was taken from Ayr beach.
  40. 1 point
    The GEFs anomalies tonight continue the theme of flirting with brief ridging mid next week before the trough and the Atlantic enter the fray bringing the likelyhood of some wet and windy weather. Temps around average.Still uncertainty how this will progress but still looking at HP building towards the end of the period and some pleasant weather but not able to pin this down as yet, See what the ecm and NOAA make of it later.
  41. 1 point
    My first post today and immediately confronted with this. Reading back through the posts I haven't seen anything attack wise since the BOE was mentioned. Some people cannot resist name calling even if it hasn't been justified. And his boxed ticked.
  42. 1 point
    I think also that there is almost a bizarre novelty to the entire thing given the fact that in comparison to some other countries . referendums in this country are as about as rare as rocking horse c..ap. Our political masters usually run a mile at the thought of having to consult the great unwashed
  43. 1 point
  44. 1 point
    If demand is to be met and we are to avoid a sudden huge, economic growth damaging price spike, they'll need to. Local production from UK waters is on the up too; one of the few places globally were production is increasing.
  45. 1 point
    Nice band of intense rainfall working it's way through the area from Southampton towards Blandford, moving westwards. Will miss us on the coast but is packing a punch in some areas, as it moved through.
  46. 1 point
  47. 1 point
  48. 1 point
  49. 1 point
  50. 1 point
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