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Showing content with the highest reputation on 12/05/16 in all areas

  1. 10 points
    After tomorrow, looks like quietening down for a bit convective risk wise. So browsed the 18z in search of a gem (as you do)... Day has temps in the mid-20s and dew points to 20C... Yeah, that would be a juicy atmosphere indeed. Very humid. Jet/shear absent, but 2500 j/kg of MLCAPE and high moisture would guarantee strong storms with large hail. Only a week Sunday as well...
  2. 7 points
    HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON THURSDAY MAY 12TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Troughs of Low pressure near Southernmost England will be pushed away South by a freshening NNE wind and fresher air moving down from the North over the coming days as a ridge of High pressure moves in close to Western Britain at the weekend. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND/OR FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK is currently near 8000ft but will fall markedly from the North in the coming days, this fall most prolific over the East where values nearer to 3500ft look likely by the weekend and nearer to 5000ft in the far West. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Less warm but becoming dry in the South with some rain too especially across the North and West. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream's flow which has been well South of the UK over the coming week or so will weaken and move away to the East across the Meditteranean Sea whereas the Northern arm remains weak and pushes a spore of energy South across the UK over the weekend. Then as we move through the rest of the forecast period the flow remains very variable with a split flow still looking likely with one arm to the North of the UK and one undulating to the South of the UK at times. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream NEW GFS OPERATIONAL The New GFS Operational Run today shows a lot of quite benign conditions over the next few weeks. Most of the time through the period we are governed by a ridge of High pressure stretching up from the SW with a lot of NW winds across the UK with a lot of dry if rather cloudy weather and with chilly nights where skies clear but nearer to average temperatures by day. Through the second week there is a more generally unsettled period indicated especially in the South as Low pressure edges up from the South but by the end of the run conditions revert to fine weather again for many as High pressure ridges in from the West again. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif GFS CONTROL RUN The Control Run is relatively similar with just the fact of the High pressure ridge receding far enough away at times to allow more unsettled westerly winds through the second week with some rain possible for all. Some warm and settled conditions under High pressure close by looks as though it could develop late in the period across the South and East. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The clustering today for day 14 shows a lot of High pressure around the UK in one shape or form with a lot of fine and settled weather likely across the UK with temperatures near or above average in light anticyclonic airflow patterns. A few members prefer to have more of an Atlantic cyclonic influence to the pattern under lower pressure to the NW although even on these members runs High pressure is shown quite close to the South and East. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows a slack Northerly flow over the UK at the weekend with cooler than of late conditions and the odd shower scattered about on the eastern flank of a ridge of High pressure just to the west. Then next week it looks like winds back towards the West and with Low pressure closing in on Northern Britain more unsettled weather with some rain on a westerly breeze looks likely for a time towards midweek. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show the flow from the North persisting across the next 4-5 days with a cooling theme as the inherent warmth currently across the UK is displaced by colder sourced Arctic air with bright fresh days with chilly nights with a touch of frost. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM The theme of GEM this morning is one of rising pressure displacing the warm and humid and unsettled conditions across the South of the UK into more settled and colder North winds with bright sells and the odd shower over the weekend. Then as we move through next week winds back Westerly and a phase of unsettled weather with some rain looks likely to move across from the West midweek with a trend then towards a NW/SE split with further rain at times in the NW while the South and East see longer drier spells when it may become warmer at times as well. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM has cooler weather on the way by the weekend too as the winds back Northerly for a time. A ridge close to the West of the UK over the weekend should bring dry and bright if cooler weather for many and as winds back Westerly next week the theme is for more unsettled conditions across the North and West while fine conditions are more likely to last longer in the South and East although even here some rain is shown to affect these parts a week or so from now. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM today shows the cooler Northerly flow at the weekend with largely dry and bright conditions with just an odd shower. Then as we move through next week a spell of Atlantic Westerly winds seems likely with some rain at times largely but not exclusively towards the North and West. then towards the second weekend High pressure builds in closer to the South and SE with a strong NW/SE split developing with fine and warm conditions across the South and east with the more unsettled weather held well towards the North and West by Day 10. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) Last nights 10 day Mean Chart is showing a theme close to that of the Operational Run at Day 10 with High pressure close to the SE and any unsettled weather more likely towards the far NW. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS As yesterday the main emphasis shown by the models continues to point towards a return to a westerly flow across the UK next week. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.4 pts and GFS at 99.2 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.1 pts to UKMO's 96.3 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.5 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 88.5 pts to UKMO at 86.8pts and GFS at 83.1 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 61.5 pts to 51.2 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 44.7 pts to 37.0 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS The next few weeks present few if any troublesome features to talk about with a lot of quite benign conditions likely across the British Isles as the pattern resets to normal UK synoptics over the next 4 to 5 days. The final embers of the warm and muggy air still over the UK will be pulled away South in the coming 48 hours as a weak cold front runs South tomorrow and Friday night. A quiet and benign weekend of weather is then likely with a a lot of cloud at times, the odd shower and some chilly nights. Then next week the theme is for winds to back towards the West with the risk of some rain almost anywhere for a time but more especially over the North but temperatures should recover somewhat especially by night. Moving further on still the most popular consensus appears to be for High pressure to be building close to the South or SE with these areas seeing a lot more in the way of fine and warm weather developing later in the period but the NW in particular looks like holding on to more of an Atlantic cyclonic influence with some rain. And that's about it really quite a quiet period of weather overall likely with nothing unpleasant or unusual being shown for the period anywhere and after a chilly few nights at the weekend when gardeners and growers need to take note of a risk of ground frost for a couple of nights this risk should be removed with average temperatures at least achieved for most of the period thereafter for all areas. Next Update Friday May 13th 2016 from 09:00
  3. 5 points
    A lot of toasty runs appearing for next weekend - this morning's are not the first. Long way off but one to watch:
  4. 4 points
    Looking at the anomalies this morning there is some indication of it getting warmer and more settled towards the end of the month although of course it's nowhere near a done deal. In the nearer 6-10 time frame not bad agreement with troughs western Atlantic and Scandinavia/eastern Europe with the Azores HP nudging in from the south west. In a nutshell during this period we lose the current patter as the trough moves east and HP builds from the SW. This is but transitory as the eastward movement continues with the trough out west moving to mid Atlantic. This introduces a south westerly upper flow and portends some wet and windy weather, particularly to the north and west. But this may well be short lived as the indications are, at the moment, that the trough will weaken and for heights to build in the eastern Atlantic. Thus more settled weather and temps above average.
  5. 4 points
    the bigger question, is will the netweather servers be able able to cope with the shear amount of network traffic originating from Newton Poppleford if this verifies?..........just kidding William, hope you get your storm today
  6. 3 points
    Cell going up to my East North East, im really hoping it continues to grow! All of these cumulus are growing!
  7. 3 points
  8. 3 points
    Judging by Sat24; we can see cumulus growing over central areas, as these move SW I expect these to grow into some storms!
  9. 3 points
    A quick look at t144 and GFS still wants the hight to have more of an influence compared to UKMO and ECM GFS then keeps the high close by ECM isn't a washout by any means the south would hold onto the best of the dry weather with high pressure always close by and becoming very warm at times too
  10. 3 points
    Been home for half hour now. Laying in my dark bedroom with the curtains open and a big flash lit up the room followed by deep booming thunder
  11. 3 points
    The tourists and West Highland Way walkers have been completely bamboozled by the ski tourers and snowboarders in the Glencoe Carpark and outside the Cafe at the end of the day the past few days. Instinct might be that the snow would be a disgusting slush puppy, but the Main Basin in particular has been pretty much perfect smooth fast crunchy granular Spring Snow - you know it's proper Spring Snow (or Corn as they call it in California) when the snow gets better to ski on the hotter it gets (or the heavier the rain gets in naff weather)! The reason is the large granular snow crystals allow for rapid draining of meltwater (or rain), this in turn rounds the snow crystals making the surface faster to ski on. the warm wind though melting more snow is also drying the surface of the snowpack - some snow will be getting lost to sublimation too in the dry air. Shame the Main Basin T-bar isn't running, though it if was we'd probably have moguls the size of small cars by now, where as those prepared to hike get perfect smooth snow!
  12. 2 points
  13. 2 points
    Little cell popped up north of Bristol too, looking like being a lively few hours!
  14. 2 points
    Just purchased Netweather Extra Radar, can't deal with waiting 15 minutes for radar updates aha!
  15. 2 points
    A shower developed due South of me.
  16. 2 points
    Typical. Leaves Ryde area and gets active..
  17. 2 points
  18. 2 points
    I'm currently doing finishing touches to my site, is the webcam page updated to the new one on your site? I've been testing everything on my mobile and tablet, so that it renders nicely on smaller screen. It's hard to cater for every device though, i've encountered so many issues!
  19. 2 points
    Towering cumulus to the SE in huntingdon, heading SW'wards, eventually they'll hopefully reach William as raging CB's with tennis ball sized hail, tornadoes and the lot portsdown hill just sparked that shower off by the looks of it!
  20. 2 points
    I do think showers will form later this afternoon if the conditions are like this further along the south coasts where wind convergence is more likely could be a interesting evening
  21. 2 points
  22. 2 points
    There was certainly lots of ACas visible down south from my aircraft window...
  23. 2 points
    Just a lovely sunny day here and bearly a cloud in the sky. I love storms but if I had the choice of this or some dreary weather with the chance of t-storms but not certain I prefer this. Very nice.
  24. 2 points
    I see Scotland recorded both the hottest and coldest temps in the UK yesterday.
  25. 2 points
    Hi guys, I was lucky enough to see this storm move over Arran yesterday, I seen about 3 flashes of lightning, picture was taken from Ayr beach.
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