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Showing content with the highest reputation on 21/04/16 in all areas

  1. 6 points
    Interesting direction of travel from the models over the past few days. The period Sat-Mon has been watered down, with the cold shifted east Sun-Mon, but a second bite has been added Tue-Thu. Peak temps in the high single digits to low teens throughout, initially held back more by cloud and rain amounts, then by the sheer chilliness of the airmass in spite of increased sunshine. Wintry precipitation generally looks to be restricted to high ground unless something develops for one of the overnight periods Tue-Thu - a trough line in the flow perhaps. Longer term, promising signs that heights will lower near/just south of Greenland, with the Azores High extending NE across the UK by day 9-10. Looking at the MJO, little guidance is offered, except that GEFS have been toying with a move into phase 8 which may be why numerous runs have been prolonging the theme of blocking to the W/NW - but not necessarily, given our proximity to May, for which the phase 8 composite is very different (below, April on the left, May right): Indeed the May composite appears quite well represented in the GFS 00z operational. The other models, however, are not keen on any MJO activity of note. - which leads me to conclude that the lowering of heights to the NW and ridging of the Azores High our way may be driven by other forcing variants. Looking at the AAM as a possible driver - it may be hitting an El Nino-driven floor in the GEFS output (above-right), but it's a long way into the negative - too far perhaps, given the known bias. Not sure it's quite right for the AH ridging in - but I'll leave that to the best informed on the matter e.g. Tamara; I've been too busy with other aspects of meteorology to cement what I know about the AAM/torques and the GWO into my mind for reliable access!
  2. 6 points
    WOW what a beautiful ending to the Gfs 00z op this morning with an early taste of summer developing through early May with 564 dam heading our way!.
  3. 5 points
    HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON THURSDAY APR 21ST 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure across the North of the UK will slide away to the West over the coming few days. In the South troughs of Low pressure will edge up from the South tomorrow with a stiff NE breeze and then a Northerly flow will then develop across all of the UK over the weekend. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK is as high as 10000ft across the far South today but over the coming days colder uppers will move steadily South with the freezing level dropping to as low as between 1700ft-3000ft even across the South over the weekend with snow showers on hills above around 500ft at times giving accumulations above 2000ft. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming colder at the weekend with cool nights and sunshine and showers looking likely with a continuing night frost risk thereafter. Perhaps becoming less cold as we enter May. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream is in the process of change as the split flow is replaced by a South moving flow from the Northern arm moving down over the UK through the weekend and for much of next week. Then in the second week the flow backs Westerly with it's core to the NW of the Uk through the second week. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a North or NNW flow developing across the UK over the coming week or so delivering cold temperatures and showers with sleet or snow in the mix along with hail and thunder as well as bright sunshine between times and frosts at night for many. Most of the showers will be in the North and East and the trend will be for less cold weather to develop from later next week as winds back Westerly and High pressure builds near the South towards the May day Bank Holiday with warmer and sunnier weather as a result while the North sees cloudier conditions with some rain. GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run is less supportive of milder air returning after a week or so of cold Northerlies. Instead it keeps rather cool and very showery weather going for many well into the second week and probably right out until the end of the period as shallow and cool Low pressure is shown to remain close to the UK. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA It's been some considerable while since the GFS Clusters were instrumental in giving a good indication of what weather to expect across the UK in a couple of weeks and this morning's crop is no exception with High pressure positioned in a variety of positions around the UK along with some Low pressure too offering some rather cool and changeable conditions within the mix. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning still shows a cold pattern developing as we move through the weekend. The weather will be typified by a mix of sunshine and April showers but those showers will be cold and potentially wintry with frosts at night a common feature for many as skies clear overnight especially in the South and West. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today show a cold Northerly flow developing across the weekend with sunshine and showers the order of the weather but with some disturbances shown to move South in the flow at times enhancing the showers, wintry on hills almost anywhere by early next weekend. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM this morning shows a cold Northerly flow too this weekend and next weekend with sunshine and potentially wintry showers by day and frost by night. With time though and later in the period the winds fall lighter and back westerly and with gently rising pressure the showers should die away later next week with the South seeing nearer to normal temperatures by day but still with the risk of frost by night in the by then quiet conditions for many. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM N/A at time of issue. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM today continues to show the same drift into a cold Northerly flow at it'sd peak early next week when winds will be stronger and a day or so of really raw conditions seem possible with widespread showers, strong winds and sleet or snow in those showers on the hills almost anywhere. This then marks the change to less cold conditions later in the week as High pressure builds from the SW killing many of the showers and steadily backing winds off towards the West with much less cold conditions especially by day with sunny spells in the South and any remaining showers restricted towards the NW late in the period. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 240hr mean Chart from last night shows the cold northerly flow all but dead by then with winds having backed off towards the West. There are still quite a few members who keep Low pressure in control though with showers especially in the North with the overall bias towards the driest conditions developing towards the South later in those less cold temperatures. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS Changes in the model remains slow but there is a continuing shift away from the coldest conditions lasting too long this morning as the theme of milder Westerly winds arriving towards the latter part of the period continues to be shown. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.4 pts and GFS at 99.3 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.2 pts to UKMO's 96.5 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.4 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 88.5 pts to UKMO at 86.4 pts and GFS at 83.2 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 62.6 pts to 55.9 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 43.1 pts to 36.6 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS The models continue to point towards a colder than average period of weather to come across the UK as winds over the next few days settle Northerly with a mix of sunshine and wintry showers developing across all areas by day with frosts under clear skies at night. the worst of the chill looks like being early next week when a squeeze in isobars make for a windy and raw period especially over the east where more prolonged showers look possible for a time with snow over modest hills. In the South and west a lot of dry and bright weather will occur between more scattered showers in sparkling visibility. Then as we look further ahead the pattern still looks a bit mixed but the general trend of yesterday remains in that there should be a shift away from cold Northerlies to lighter and more importantly warmer Westerlies with the South possibly becoming largely dry and bright while the North sees more cloud and occasional rain. So all in all Winter refuses to lose it's grip next week but it should be it's last hurrah before something more seasonably traditional and Springlike arrives in Week 2 of this morning's output. In the meantime I would strongly advise gardeners and growers to protect or withhold placing tender plants in outside locations for a couple more weeks while the passage of this cold spell takes place. For the rest of us the cold spell will be no more than an inconvenience with some very pleasant looking conditions between the cold showers. Let's hope the improvements shown longer term this morning are enhanced and extended in the upcoming days outputs. Next Update Friday April 22nd 2016 from 09:00
  4. 4 points
    ADS extent dipped below 13 million km2 4 days earlier than any previous year recorded. Yesterday it dipped below 12.9 million km2 6 days earlier than any previous recorded year.
  5. 4 points
    2015/2016 Winter analysis http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2016/03/20152016-winter-analysis.html
  6. 2 points
    To be honest, anything after a week of temps 3-5c below average will be welcome! Nice to see some early signs of the Greenland mega-block being eroded away, with the trough that will nag the east of the UK dissipating somewhat.
  7. 2 points
    Slight heads up for far SW and near channel coasts this evening and into early hours of tomorrow. Looks like moist low-mid level air mass of substantial theta-w will indeed advect over channel and far SW UK during period before flow turns N'erly during Friday. Occlusion moving up from the south looks likely to engage this moisture, bringing high RF rate and low lightning risk if DMC can occur. Lack of forcing aloft, weak-ish mid-level lapse rates, and just general lack of instability all limiting factors. Very low risk in all.
  8. 2 points
    Charts like this always get me in the mood for summertime, they do it everytime!! But just watch it all erode away piece by piece, hour by hour until we're left with dull miserable & gloomy westerlies
  9. 2 points
    Beautiful twilight yesterday. The daffs are on the turn now.
  10. 2 points
    My word.. What an end to the GFS this morning Helllllllllllo Summmer
  11. 2 points
    Hints from ECM of the colder air easing towards the end of next week as high pressure gets closer by Still plenty of chilly weather to get through first though with some snow especially for higher ground and frosts quite possible
  12. 2 points
    Not very pleasant down at the lake this morning. Thick Ci giving almost total cover and a 25mph easterly blowing along the valley. Just had time to feed a Robin
  13. 2 points
    Minimum today of 2.6C, while maxima look like reaching the mid 14s, so an increase to 8.2C is likely on tomorrows update. After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at: 8.2C to the 21st (8.6: -0.6) 8.2C to the 22nd (8.3: -1.1) 8.0C to the 23rd (4.5: -5.2) 7.8C to the 24th (3.6: -6.1) 7.7C to the 25th (4.4: -5.7) 7.6C to the 26th (4.8: -5.3) 7.5C to the 27th (4.3: -5.8) 7.3C to the 28th (3.0: -6.9) [Record low: 3.0C] 7.2C to the 29th (5.4: -4.5) The 06z GFS suggests the week of the 23rd to the 29th would average 4.3C, so we're we have a genuine chance of the coldest final week of April on record. At this stage, I'd say a finish of between 6.9C and 8.0C before corrections, and 6.6C to 8.0C after corrections.
  14. 1 point
    8.2c to the 20th 0.8c above the 61 to 90 average 0.4c above the 81 to 10 average
  15. 1 point
    I'm quite optimistic about a considerable warm up after the upcoming unseasonably cold spell, especially after reading Singularity's post..hopefully may will spring an early taste of summer!
  16. 1 point
    Lovely sunny day yesterday but the temp was pegged back here by the E'ly breeze and only reached a max of 12.5C. Looking good for another nice day today. Lots of blue around at the mo but some high cirrus already appearing. Satellite shows it up well. Arpege going for a warmer day, with 15C for many in the west of our Region and suggesting the South Coast is best placed for the highest temps. Day trip to Brighton anyone?
  17. 1 point
    A quick run through of the first 10 days of this morning's GFS. As expected we get into the circulation of the trough to the west on Sunday with the low that originated way up north now around Stavanger 994mb and the UK in a NW airstream. During the next couple of days the low travels south to Denmark veering the streamlines over the UK and introducing much colder air with wintry showers, more particularly in the north and east. Cornwall still basking. Very quickly a new low 986mb, one that has travelled NW from near the Black sea, is in position near near Stavanger where it slowly fills and moves north. Whilst this is happening HP is edging it's way into Ireland and England backing the streamlines westerly. This heralds the introduction of much warmer air or so we are led to believe. Serious health warnings have been issued.
  18. 1 point
    Two cracking spring days on the trot, first bit of warmth this season. Hardly any cloud all day, and no wind, temps up to 15 degrees, preety respectable for April. This evening has been stunning again with a superb sunset. I'm lucky to have a view of the eastern wall of the central lakes from coniston old man through to the langdales, and the fells right now look fantastic set against a pinky peach sky, etched sharp black.. brilliant stuff. Tomorrow promises another dry very fine day but a bit more cloud. Classic spring switcharound come the weekend.. snow for the fells again.
  19. 1 point
    Yes been a fantastic Spring day, Great to see the Robin feeding from the hand Knocker, Great stuff! The last of the few sheep have Lambed yesterday, Great conditions for them.
  20. 1 point
    More often than not they get the odd day sat on the wires with snow falling here, but I think a worse problem is extended spells of north or north easterlies in June - when they have young to feed and it's too cold for any insects to be flying for days sometimes. At the moment they can travel further away to sheltered spots lower down for a few days if need be. Blue sky and 13.6C presently, the wind is in the south today - but quite strong at times.
  21. 1 point
    Top 20 coldest last weeks: 1808: 4.5 1857: 4.5 1782: 5.0 1906: 5.0 1826: 5.1 1877: 5.5 1829: 5.5 1813: 5.6 1919: 5.6 1941: 5.7 1887: 5.8 1908: 5.8 1799: 6.0 1838: 6.0 1922: 6.0 1989: 6.1 1981: 6.1 1848: 6.2 1927: 6.2 1803: 6.4
  22. 1 point
    Beautiful day with light winds and a current temp of 12.6°C. Just got back from a walk at Bassenthwaite Lake, great views today.
  23. 1 point
    Spot on! Hopefully you are wrong as recent spring and summers have been awful. Must be our turn to experience some of the globes hottest years on record!
  24. 1 point
    Back in December I posted about the little known practice in the Jura Mountains of stockpiling and storing snow under a layer of wood chips, ready to get the following season off to a start if the weather hadn't delivered. Here's an extract of my post: Until the first winter offensive in the Jura, one discovers the snow from last season kept under wood chips. This is a process used for some years in the Jura, near the stadium of Tuffes. Snow that fell last season is preserved under the wood chips. Thanks to the insulating properties of the wood, only 20% of the initial volume would be lost. Well the practice seems to have caught the attention of the FIS. This article appearing in the French media today: La Clusaz going into snow farming At the request of the FIS, the Aravis (mountain) station has stored snow for the next stage of World Cup to be held on 17 and 18 December 2016. No less than 5,000 m3 of snow have been stored on the Confins plateau. This week, the snow pile was covered with sawdust. This stored snow allows the organization of the World Cup, if the snow is missing in December as two years ago, to take the risk of starting (the competition) and not be forced to cancel. http://www.ledauphine.com/skichrono/2016/04/15/la-clusaz-passe-au-snow-farming
  25. 1 point
    Fascinating comment by Oliver Del Rio on that Neven article, speaking of the record low sum of northern hemisphere 'white surface' for Feb-Mar, models projecting the -20*C 850 hPa isotherm as early as mid-April - two weeks head of the previous earliest departure (which he states to be early days of May in 1980, according to reanalysis) and the n. hem already building heat including the subtropics with temps already above 30*C at 850hPa from India to Africa, with 30*C at 2m reached in Bosnia already - among the earliest dates on record for this threshold to be met). I've not verified just how extreme it all is, but apparently it's more akin to what might be expected a month or so from now. Interesting to think what that could mean for the magnitude of heatwaves as, when and where they manifest this summer. Sure, the hotter it gets, the more energy is needed to keep that temperature climbing, but it only takes fractions of a degree to see records topple. Including those in the Arctic (but hopefully the warmth will hang out at 50-70*N instead and in an unusually spread out fashion to avoid lethal heat... yeah, that's hoping for too much, isn't it?).
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