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Showing content with the highest reputation on 21/04/16 in all areas

  1. Indeed I cherry picked the best chart from the Gfs 00z which just so happened to be the last chart of the run but hey, I'm just looking for signs of a major warm up after the upcoming cool / cold spell is over and I'm sure there are many others who share my view!
    12 points
  2. That's very true, although there is a nagging, slightly annoying doubt ringing in my ears of late. If brexit will invariably bring such a disaster economically, as we're lead to believe. Why agree to have a referendum, in fact why go to the pains of a renegotiation and wait for the results of that before even deciding whether or not to campaign to remain or not, as David Cameron and his allies have done? It makes zero sense to me that the prime minister would on one hand seek to renegotiate on the basis that he'll campaign to leave if he didn't get what he wanted, and to then suggest that the UK will implode should it now decide to leave. In fairness that alone won't stop me voting to remain, but if nothing else it shows up how ridiculous all this politicking is.
    7 points
  3. Oh so that's how you have the ability to paint a lovely picture of the EU.
    6 points
  4. Your the one who said it was a wonderfully cultural place to live. No wonder you hot footed out to Beccles. I have a friend who lives nearby who told me that even the pigeons fly over it upside down because theres nothing worth crapping on. One bonus I suppose that multiculturalism brings.
    6 points
  5. Tim Montgomerie ن ‏@montie 2m2 minutes ago He asked to be judged on his record. Ok, then: "Osborne has missed every single deficit target he has set himself"http://order-order.com/2016/04/21/squandermania-osborne-misses-borrowing-target-for-last-year/ Yet he thinks people will believe his EU "4.300" house hold lose on eu vote
    5 points
  6. Haha indeed. And to be honest I'm not sure these people are real Most ordinary folk I talk to......& that's a lot of people want OUT. Ruddy hell why does a lot of you're posts involve the words "intolerant" "racist" "far right"........get a life mate you're obsessed. You're sort of attitude is WHY we are having the referendum in the first place because of mass uncontrolled immigration & not being allowed to criticise it. People are fed up with it being rammed down their throats.
    5 points
  7. So it's fine for the Scots to crave independence, but when the English want it it's xenophobic? Pretty typical of some of the attitudes on here.
    5 points
  8. The days of the Empire are now gone and a Brexit certainly won't bring it back no matter how much people will hanker after it - all there is left is the odd outpost scattered around the world. The world has changed and we have to change with it, so we are faced with the choice of abandoning Europe or staying with it. My view is that by staying with Europe we can still offer a lot not only to the EU but the rest of the world provided we play our full part and stop complaining from the side lines. I cannot see what is wrong with closer integration - it would very likely help in making the EU more efficient and prosperous in turn. It's peoples would remain free and would retain there national and regional identities; something the EU has always been at pains to encourage. So what is wrong with being part of a greater unit? I was going to say whole but somebody is bound to make a remark relating to that. Even if through this closer integration we have to accept the Euro, what is wrong with that? The alternative as I see it is becoming a gradually declining power, a 'has been' with little prospects or hopes for the future.
    5 points
  9. Brexit campaigners assert that because Germany is a net exporter of cars to the UK it would be bound to accept free trade with the UK. Germany could only do so, however, with the unanimous agreement of every other EU member state. Why would France vote for the free import of British-built cars when it could otherwise protect its own state-supported car industry? Any relaxation in the trade rules for the benefit of a UK outside the EU would, under international trade law, have to be made available to every other country trading with the EU. It is simply not realistic to believe that the EU could abandon its global trade policies for the benefit of the “Britain out” campaign.
    5 points
  10. Interesting direction of travel from the models over the past few days. The period Sat-Mon has been watered down, with the cold shifted east Sun-Mon, but a second bite has been added Tue-Thu. Peak temps in the high single digits to low teens throughout, initially held back more by cloud and rain amounts, then by the sheer chilliness of the airmass in spite of increased sunshine. Wintry precipitation generally looks to be restricted to high ground unless something develops for one of the overnight periods Tue-Thu - a trough line in the flow perhaps. Longer term, promising signs that heights will lower near/just south of Greenland, with the Azores High extending NE across the UK by day 9-10. Looking at the MJO, little guidance is offered, except that GEFS have been toying with a move into phase 8 which may be why numerous runs have been prolonging the theme of blocking to the W/NW - but not necessarily, given our proximity to May, for which the phase 8 composite is very different (below, April on the left, May right): Indeed the May composite appears quite well represented in the GFS 00z operational. The other models, however, are not keen on any MJO activity of note. - which leads me to conclude that the lowering of heights to the NW and ridging of the Azores High our way may be driven by other forcing variants. Looking at the AAM as a possible driver - it may be hitting an El Nino-driven floor in the GEFS output (above-right), but it's a long way into the negative - too far perhaps, given the known bias. Not sure it's quite right for the AH ridging in - but I'll leave that to the best informed on the matter e.g. Tamara; I've been too busy with other aspects of meteorology to cement what I know about the AAM/torques and the GWO into my mind for reliable access!
    5 points
  11. WOW what a beautiful ending to the Gfs 00z op this morning with an early taste of summer developing through early May with 564 dam heading our way!.
    5 points
  12. A few idiots ! Why don't you go and tell them. As for the rest of us, we don't hate ourselves for being born English, infact we celebrate it.!!
    4 points
  13. Dave... Dave thanks for your apology... But you were claiming it was' frightening' - this lack of knowledge in the Brexiters!!!!. You are quite clearly the one with very biased as well as incorrect views. The Canaries came into the EC when Spain joined. They have even taken onboard the euro. The fact that they don't think themselves as in the Eu and just casually drop all Eu legislation has nothing to do with it! I am going back there in 2 weeks for about the sixth time in the last 10 years, for a short holiday. I expect to do the same for the next 10 years no matter which way the referendum goes. I expect to have to show my passport at the control in exactly the same way as per the last 40 years!. Come on stop trying to make out it is just the BRexiters who are fools. Bias can and is making a fool of everybody.. Particularly those with property at risk and who can afford to lose it (but are fighting hard not to)! Can I suggest that you try making valid discussion points..... I prefer to think of the NHS and school-children that I would like to protect against future further out of control immigration. Why is that wrong and what would you be able to do within a stalled EC to improve these hundreds of thousands (probably millions shortly) of peoples life-styles, rather then to support these people who own houses and villas overseas, and who chose to live outside the UK to improve their lifestyle?. MIA
    4 points
  14. The act of wishing Scotland to have successful independence is not xenophobic - but the will of them to leave because you are intolerant of them is. Scots probably have bigger fish to fry than wondering if their independence will solely annoy the English. The difference is the Scottish in general want to do that under EU guidance and not alone whereas English in general are happy to do it alone.
    4 points
  15. it's quite cool really.. you can hear all elements of European music in this, the walking bass is very Italianate, the brass is very Iberian/latin sounding. The problem is I think majority of British people don't realise the full extent of British music, and what it is. I;m sure Scottish people can tell you that some of the music of bands like Capercaillie are not whatever people expect of Englishness, and the Welsh bands like Anweledig and Gwilym Morus don't exactly comform to a nationalist view of Britishness. Point being Europe had influenced us big time, and being our own isolated won't change the 'opression', as suggested by some intolerant types who clearly think were not European.
    4 points
  16. http://news.sky.com/story/1682766/uk-to-take-thousands-of-refugee-children I know this isn't to do with the eu as such but it does look like we are about to take in another influx of migrant children from camps within the eu the reason im posting is if you look at the gallery of photos that were drawn by these children. Do you smell a rat? I think the press can be very biased in their reporting over this issue and many other others
    4 points
  17. In that case, I'm off to watch The Krays...It's time for me to see just how lovely London's East End was back when all the gangs were white Brits!
    4 points
  18. Your comments can sometimes come across as a little blunt but very funny.
    4 points
  19. surprised there isn't more excitement about the impending northerly and late arctic blast. Meto supporting the output for snow & potentially accumulating at night early next week. I know it is spring but the weather over the next 7 days will be from boring with thunder, Hail & snow all in the forecast!
    4 points
  20. Absolutely spot on, being part of the EU forces us to favour EU citizens over people from other parts of the world, regardless of skillset. As a small, densely populated island, we should be very selective about who we let in, and should not have it dictated to us. As for those who live abroad, or are planning to, I don't think their ease of movement will be too high on the list of priorities for most people when they go to vote, particularly for those in areas already suffering the effects of mass migration from the EU.
    4 points
  21. You can differentiate between EU free visa travel, and EU right to reside, right? What's being agreed here is that Turkish people can visit EU states for vacation, or business meetings, not for right to remain in those EU countries. This ariticle is intentionally misleading somehow, and doesn't tell the real situation. To say about refugees also.. they have been dealt around EU regardless of EU immigration rules.
    4 points
  22. ADS extent dipped below 13 million km2 4 days earlier than any previous year recorded. Yesterday it dipped below 12.9 million km2 6 days earlier than any previous recorded year.
    4 points
  23. HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON THURSDAY APR 21ST 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure across the North of the UK will slide away to the West over the coming few days. In the South troughs of Low pressure will edge up from the South tomorrow with a stiff NE breeze and then a Northerly flow will then develop across all of the UK over the weekend. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK is as high as 10000ft across the far South today but over the coming days colder uppers will move steadily South with the freezing level dropping to as low as between 1700ft-3000ft even across the South over the weekend with snow showers on hills above around 500ft at times giving accumulations above 2000ft. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming colder at the weekend with cool nights and sunshine and showers looking likely with a continuing night frost risk thereafter. Perhaps becoming less cold as we enter May. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream is in the process of change as the split flow is replaced by a South moving flow from the Northern arm moving down over the UK through the weekend and for much of next week. Then in the second week the flow backs Westerly with it's core to the NW of the Uk through the second week. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a North or NNW flow developing across the UK over the coming week or so delivering cold temperatures and showers with sleet or snow in the mix along with hail and thunder as well as bright sunshine between times and frosts at night for many. Most of the showers will be in the North and East and the trend will be for less cold weather to develop from later next week as winds back Westerly and High pressure builds near the South towards the May day Bank Holiday with warmer and sunnier weather as a result while the North sees cloudier conditions with some rain. GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run is less supportive of milder air returning after a week or so of cold Northerlies. Instead it keeps rather cool and very showery weather going for many well into the second week and probably right out until the end of the period as shallow and cool Low pressure is shown to remain close to the UK. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA It's been some considerable while since the GFS Clusters were instrumental in giving a good indication of what weather to expect across the UK in a couple of weeks and this morning's crop is no exception with High pressure positioned in a variety of positions around the UK along with some Low pressure too offering some rather cool and changeable conditions within the mix. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning still shows a cold pattern developing as we move through the weekend. The weather will be typified by a mix of sunshine and April showers but those showers will be cold and potentially wintry with frosts at night a common feature for many as skies clear overnight especially in the South and West. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today show a cold Northerly flow developing across the weekend with sunshine and showers the order of the weather but with some disturbances shown to move South in the flow at times enhancing the showers, wintry on hills almost anywhere by early next weekend. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM this morning shows a cold Northerly flow too this weekend and next weekend with sunshine and potentially wintry showers by day and frost by night. With time though and later in the period the winds fall lighter and back westerly and with gently rising pressure the showers should die away later next week with the South seeing nearer to normal temperatures by day but still with the risk of frost by night in the by then quiet conditions for many. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM N/A at time of issue. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM today continues to show the same drift into a cold Northerly flow at it'sd peak early next week when winds will be stronger and a day or so of really raw conditions seem possible with widespread showers, strong winds and sleet or snow in those showers on the hills almost anywhere. This then marks the change to less cold conditions later in the week as High pressure builds from the SW killing many of the showers and steadily backing winds off towards the West with much less cold conditions especially by day with sunny spells in the South and any remaining showers restricted towards the NW late in the period. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 240hr mean Chart from last night shows the cold northerly flow all but dead by then with winds having backed off towards the West. There are still quite a few members who keep Low pressure in control though with showers especially in the North with the overall bias towards the driest conditions developing towards the South later in those less cold temperatures. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS Changes in the model remains slow but there is a continuing shift away from the coldest conditions lasting too long this morning as the theme of milder Westerly winds arriving towards the latter part of the period continues to be shown. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.4 pts and GFS at 99.3 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.2 pts to UKMO's 96.5 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.4 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 88.5 pts to UKMO at 86.4 pts and GFS at 83.2 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 62.6 pts to 55.9 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 43.1 pts to 36.6 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS The models continue to point towards a colder than average period of weather to come across the UK as winds over the next few days settle Northerly with a mix of sunshine and wintry showers developing across all areas by day with frosts under clear skies at night. the worst of the chill looks like being early next week when a squeeze in isobars make for a windy and raw period especially over the east where more prolonged showers look possible for a time with snow over modest hills. In the South and west a lot of dry and bright weather will occur between more scattered showers in sparkling visibility. Then as we look further ahead the pattern still looks a bit mixed but the general trend of yesterday remains in that there should be a shift away from cold Northerlies to lighter and more importantly warmer Westerlies with the South possibly becoming largely dry and bright while the North sees more cloud and occasional rain. So all in all Winter refuses to lose it's grip next week but it should be it's last hurrah before something more seasonably traditional and Springlike arrives in Week 2 of this morning's output. In the meantime I would strongly advise gardeners and growers to protect or withhold placing tender plants in outside locations for a couple more weeks while the passage of this cold spell takes place. For the rest of us the cold spell will be no more than an inconvenience with some very pleasant looking conditions between the cold showers. Let's hope the improvements shown longer term this morning are enhanced and extended in the upcoming days outputs. Next Update Friday April 22nd 2016 from 09:00
    4 points
  24. 2015/2016 Winter analysis http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2016/03/20152016-winter-analysis.html
    4 points
  25. 1) It was not such a risk as you think MIA - property in France is much cheaper than in the UK, besides which I did not burn any bridges and the upkeep of the French house is financed by holiday lettings, so we are not in the same position as your ex next door neighbour. 2) I am not expecting people in the UK to vote for the preservation of my life style - all things being equal it should continue in the same manner - I have already taken the precaution of investing in solar power (water heating in France and PV solar panels in the UK) together with full air to air heat pumps in France and partial in the UK as something of a protection against rising fuel costs. 3) If we are talking about EU migration to the UK it has already been shown that these people overall are of benefit to the UK economy. Migration from outside the UK can sometimes be different - the newer ones cost, yet I dare say that the older ones who are already established here also pay there own way. In any case we still have 'closed borders' for those wishing to enter from outside the EU. It is not the fault of the EU that our border police are currently described as unfit for purpose and the government is planning to make reductions to this in the foreseeable future. 4) Various governments have consistently under invested in our infra structure, probably for most of my life - I suspect that part of this is due to the wish of them wishing to bribe the public into re-electing them at subsequent GE's rather than developing long term plans for improvement - again it is our own domestic policies at fault not the EU. 5) If France can still continue to build many new roads, buildings and factories, generally continue to invest in its own infra structure even under the leadership of M François Hollande, reputably the worst president of the 5em Republic, where are we going wrong? And I still see people frequenting the bars and restaurants. Not only that France also has an immigration problem, plus have the wannabe in UK migrants around the Calais area. 6) The Brexits are so critical of the part of the treasury report to 2030 in respect of its predicted economic outlook, yet they take fully on board a predicted influx of 4 million extra migrants by then - it seems to me that you are accepting the parts which suit your purpose whilst ignoring or shouting down the parts which do not. In any case we have absolutely no way of knowing how many people will decide to come to the UK. 7) Overall the economy of the EU has turned the corner and is making progress albeit at a slower rate than it would have liked and there are still economic problems with Greece, Italy and Portugal which will take somewhat longer to sort out. I agree that the EU has gone through a bad patch in what was a global economic crisis and some parts are recovering faster than others but I am sure it is working to correct these because the last thing it wants is for the system to fail. 8/ You cannot be sure that GDP will only drop by 1% in the next year or 2 - each year that the GDP is in negative territory it will be compounded to a higher figure and that will also be time lost in getting our economy right. It is too big a risk especially when there are no plans in existence for countering this. As for selling world wide we don't know what tariffs will be imposed by others - it is only natural that other nations will look for their cheaper options and with our relatively high labour costs we may not be able to fulfil this. 9) I don't see the EU becoming a power house in 5 years, it will take longer but it does have the potential to do so and I can visualise the reminder of the EU being in the restaurant have slap ups meals whilst we are outside looking enviously on through the window. 10) To stay or leave is in fact a long term decision but I get the impression that the exiteers wish to leave for short term expediency which I suspect will be short lived. I have explained the reasons why in previous posts.
    4 points
  26. And yet MIke, you took the leap to buy a property in France!!!. It looks as though you have suddenly become risk averse!. I have a relative and an ex-next door neighbour who have sold up and moved to France. I had a discussion with the both of them along the lines of what would happen to their UK pension, what effect would currency fluctuation have on them, what would happen if one of them dies and they cannot get back to the UK?. These points (and the one about a BRexit) should have been recognised by yourself before you made the leap. You made it for purely for your own lifestyle point of view. You cannot expect the people of the UK to vote to keep you in your current life-style, just because you fancied it at the time!. I for one would not and do not feel sorry for you. You made your bed in the full knowledge of what risks there were out in the future. So much more important to me is what is going on in my backyard.......... Vis the NHS and schools. Approximately 100,000 children this year will not get their school of choice. 25,000 children will not get one of their top 3 places. Many boroughs in the country are struggling with overlarge classes. In quite a few places more than 50% of children are not getting any of their school of choice. We are expecting a further 200,000 more immigrants in the next 12 months. 1 million by 2020 and 4 million (according to the Treasury report) by 2030. Most of them are young and of child bearing age. We already have the fastest growing birth population in any european country, due in the main to the influx of immigrants in the last 15 years.. Now I think that this is due to the various governments (who even now do not recognise a problem!). But how does one manage an economy when we have no real control of our immigration? To my way of thinking this will not happen within the EC. We will be given no assistance (in any way) by the EU for this problem. Sorry but these issues are more important to me than that you may have made an incorrect decision in the past. The only way we can regain some control is by voting 'out'. If we have to lose 1% of out GDP to do this in the next 2 years then I consider it will be worth it. As for the future economic figures - no one has told me how we can turnround the current economic trend of the UK selling more goods and services to the world than to the really struggling EC. It is a trend that started 5 years ago and I see no answer to this problem from the Europhiles.( And this despite the European trading restrictions with the rest of the world). Any reply I have seen from Europhiles suggests 'high tech' - , but wont we be able to sell it better worldwide than just to the EU? You talk of 'outers' not having a plan. But what will be the EU economic future in 5 years? Do you really think it will be a 'powerhouse' whilst all the structural problems remain. I can only see Greece and co getting more and more into the mire. The are major structural problems in the EC and the UK. Despite what you say I cannot see the UK being able to fix (or even influencing) the EU problems. I do believe that we can influence the UK issues at the next election if I vote for Brexit. MIA.
    4 points
  27. So pretty much anyone who doesn't want to be in the EU is a target?......right OK. Well that comes across as intolerant to me without good reason.
    3 points
  28. I seem to be getting a lot of attention I must have hit a raw nerve there somewhere.
    3 points
  29. maybe not, but in Kents case, I think his words speak volumes.. and Ive seen plenty of xenophobia from the out side. David, it may be that you are not anti-immigration yourself, but Kent has clearly shown himself to have xenophobic traits.
    3 points
  30. Crikey! Again.. For the millionth time, and its really grating now, Brexit DOES NOT MEAN anti immigration, it means CONTROLLED IMMIGRATION!
    3 points
  31. Can I help put this to bed? Don't assume people are not around to talk. I have spent time today talking with a neighbour. He is well into his 90's and as a young man fought under Monty at El Alamein as a desert rat - he had a tough time. He believes the UK should vote to exit the EU. He believes he and his fellow soldiers fought and died to keep the sovereignty of this country intact allowing us to be independent with our own borders free to make our own rules and govern ourselves. He feels the UK is not the country he fought for and is sad to see what the country has become including the influx of so many immigrants. He also believes the young people in this country seem to think the elderly should not have views.......so perhaps, with respect, those of you bumping your gums about NOT using the experience of 2 world wars as a valued point for exiting the EU let it rest....
    3 points
  32. The GEFS anomalies in the 8-13 range continue with the pattern change that has been indicated for two or three days now. Erosion of the Greenland ridge and the UK trough and increasing influence from the Azores HP., Thus upper wind backing NW and temps gradually rising to average.
    3 points
  33. That's fine, as I said you crack on, but I'm under no illusion that history will judge our failure to exit on Jun 23rd as one of the biggest mistakes of modern times - probably up there in fact with allowing davehsug to join the forum
    3 points
  34. In case you hadn't notices the 3 lines used were just modified versions of yours from a previous post.....and therein lies the problem, when you say these kind of things they are insightful and accurate, when others say them they are misleading and biased - or so you like to think, the reality however is very different. The EU is going down the pan, financially, morally and ethically - no one from these isles signed up for anything like we are seeing now and certainly no one signed up for the disasters that lie ahead just around the corner - so if you want to remain onboard while the band plays then you crack on mate, but don't expect everyone else to be so naive, unimaginative and scared.
    3 points
  35. Errm, actually it is (as part of Spain - it even has the euro as its currency), it just has an exception when it comes to VAT and excise duty. http://europa.eu/about-eu/countries/member-countries/spain/index_en.htm http://ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/resources/documents/customs/procedural_aspects/general/sad/guide/1619-08annexi_en.pdf
    3 points
  36. Good God you are totally bereft of any sense of humour.
    3 points
  37. I see a child that has been traumatised by war in there country. What would you expect them to draw? Play parks with children happily playing?
    3 points
  38. The method employed was fine, this is the model output discussion and its ok to mention any timeframe, all I did was show what I considered to be the best looking chart on the Gfs 00z run. All I'm doing is looking for signs of warmth beyond the imminent much cooler spell.
    3 points
  39. Really looking forward to the lovely Arctic air next week, good weather to be out and about in, even though this week has been fresh and not warm, colder weather is always welcome. A real lack of any warmth this Spring, sorry but 13C/14C max's 4C mins widely isn't warm when the days are as long as August, this would be a cold spell then.
    3 points
  40. Better than Knightsbridge? Do you mean that our esteemed towel-folder/coke-snorter travels all the way to Penge?
    3 points
  41. when it brings in family and relationships anyone with an ounce of empathy would realize that their vote impacts some people more than they suggest. So while the priority might not be.. the impact on a number of people will be big. I'm terms of personal loss it will be a lot bigger than if we remain in the EC.
    3 points
  42. But the lies are working edd the inn campaigns lead is growing slightly
    3 points
  43. Good to see polls swinging towards remain in the last couple of days anyway. People are realising that the status quo is a lot safer than a leap into the dark. The leave campaign are wasting opportunities to actually clarify any plan they might have if we leave.
    3 points
  44. UK citizens (and much of the western world) get visa-free travel to the US. That's essentially what Turkey will get to the EU. A total non-story.
    3 points
  45. Nothing will stop Brits emigrating to Europe, if they can afford the visa costs, and be able to meet the restrictions of the host country. Getting right to remain in a country that requires visas is not as easy as you think... certainly the majority of people on here would struggle to meet the conditions required to obtain a visa from a none EU member state, so you should rethink that idea.
    3 points
  46. We are voting to leave the EU, not voting to leave Europe, or indeed the planet earth. IF we do ultimately vote for a Brexit, nothing is going to stop Brits emigrating to Europe, or Europeans emigrating to Britain, all that will happen is both side will enjoy a greater degree of 'control' over any movements between us. This will then allow more space to be allocated to those wishing to come here from outside the EU, many of whom have the kind of skillsets we desperately need, but we are currently having to refuse them entry in favour of eastern European pickpocketing gangs for instance. This is the absurdity of the whole situation and one that rarely gets highlighted, as it's much easier just to call those of us holding these views all the usual names.
    3 points
  47. This will tip a few DK's onto the Brexit side of the fence for certain... Turkey edges closer to EU visa-free travel: 20 April 2016 - The European Commission said on Wednesday (20 April) it would propose to give visa-free access to the passport-free Schengen area to Turkey on 4 May, if Ankara fulfills all the necessary benchmarks. In its first assessment of the progress made under the EU-Turkey deal aimed at returning migrants from Greece, the EU commission said it would present its third report on the progress made by Turkey to fulfill requirements on 4 May, and could propose to grant visa-free travel. It means Turkey would have to fulfill all the 72 criteria for visa-free travel for its citizens within two weeks before the Commission can make such a proposal. Under the deal, the EU has committed to accelerate the visa liberalisation process in exchange for Turkey’s help to stop the flow of migrants and refugees into Europe. EU leaders pledged to aim at lifting the visa requirements for Turkish citizens at the latest by the end of June 2016 if all the benchmarks are met. At the time of the last progress report in March, Turkey had lived up to 35 requirements, and, EU officials said, since then, more of them have been settled. EU migration commissioner Dimitris Avramopoulos told press Wednesday if the work continues at its current pace, most benchmarks will be met. “So far it goes well,” he said. EU commission president Jean-Claude Juncker said on Tuesday in a speech that the requirements for Turkey will not be watered down. Juncker’s statement came a day after Turkish prime minister Ahmet Davutoglu said that Turkey would no longer honour the EU-Turkey accord if the EU failed to ease visa requirements by June. Juncker and Davutoglu met privately on Tuesday, where, EU officials said, the EU commission chief passed on a list of measures still needed to be sorted out by Ankara. According to officials, Davutoglu seemed confident they can deliver on time. Outstanding requirements are for example the issuing of passports that include the fingerprints of the document holder (biometric passports), allowing visa-free access Turkey for all EU citizens, engaging in police and judicial cooperation in criminal matters with EU countries, officials pointed out. Political consensus needed After the commission’s proposal the council of EU member states and the European Parliament still need to give their consent to the visa-free regime. For years, several EU countries, such as France and Germany, have been reluctant to allow visa-free travel for the 75 million Turkish citizens, fearing increased migration. But with the pledge made by EU leaders in March to sign off the visa liberalisation if Turkey fulfills the technical requirements, officials say member states will have to agree. “Visa liberalisation for Turkey is something that was envisaged a year and a half from now, it was a conscious decision taken by the EU side to bring the date closer,” said one EU official, adding that it will be nevertheless a difficult political exercise. “It’s not a mathematical exercise, where we just tick the boxes,” he added. But major reservations remain. “The 72 criteria are not enough, there still needs to be a political consensus among the 28 member states,” another EU official insisted. Progress Since the deal came into force on 20 March, so far 325 irregular migrants arriving to Greece have been returned to Turkey, but most of them have not requested asylum. On concerns that Greek authorities will not be able to cope with processing the asylum requests fast enough to avoid a build-up on the islands, Avramopoulos said: “We are at the beginning of the process.” “Greek authorities on the ground doing exactly this, to avoid this phenomenon,” he added. The commission’s report said Greece set up accelerated procedures for the processing of asylum claims. So far 103 Syrian refugees have been resettled to the EU directly from Turkey, according to the report.
    3 points
  48. Perhaps Remain should just send a copy of this hearing to every household, by any stretch this was a complete car crash to add to the Boris Johnson car wreck a few weeks back. If you're an Outer best pour yourself a stiff drink before reading this from the Guardian, and its there for all to see online. “Can you go back to your seat please?” asked Andrew Tyrie, chair of the Treasury select committee as Dominic Cummings hovered menacingly over his shoulder. Cummings, Vote Leave’s campaign director, had no intention of going anywhere. Going back to his seat would be a victory for the cesspit of Brussels. Instead he stood over Tyrie, pointing at his phone. “I’ve got another meeting at four, so I’ll have to be out of here before that,” Cummings insisted, sticking it to the Man. “I don’t think you’ve got the hang of these proceedings,” Tyrie replied evenly. “We ask the questions and you stay and answer them.” “I’m just telling you when I’ll be leaving.” “In that case you’ll be recalled.” “Fine by me.” Cummings sloped slowly back to the other side of the committee room and stood beside his chair. “Will you sit down, please?” Tyrie persisted. “I’m just turning off my phone,” Cummings said petulantly. “You wouldn’t want my phone to go off, would you?” Only when Cummings was certain he had got the backs up of everyone in the room, did he eventually slump into his seat like a moody adolescent. Cummings had a reputation to maintain. He hadn’t yet found anyone he couldn’t pick a fight with – any mirror would do – and he didn’t intend to start now. “Can we talk about some of Vote Leave’s figures?” said Tyrie, once Cummings was finally in place. As it happened, we couldn’t. We could talk about why the EU was the most corrupt organisation on Earth, we could talk about why Boris Johnson and Michael Gove weren’t actually members of the establishment, we could talk about why everyone in the Treasury and the Bank of England were complete morons, we could talk about all sort of secret threats that secret people were making about secret things that he would have to keep secret, but talking figures wasn’t on the table. “I don’t think it’s Vote Leave’s job to provide figures,” Cummings announced triumphantly, his eyes swivelling manically. “But Vote Leave quotes numerous figures on its website,” said Tyrie, “Most of them misleading or inaccurate.” “Accuracy is for snake-oil pussies,” Cummings hissed under his breath. “And besides, I’ve got a really bad memory.” “Is it not true that you only provide the costs of the EU and none of the benefits? You make the same mistake as Boris Johnson. You don’t read carefully enough. Wouldn’t it have been useful to have done some of the maths.” “It’s just a matter of a few decimal points,” Cummings said. Tyrie blinked. Earlier on he had been prepared to accept he might have been dealing with an idiot savant. It only now dawned on him that he was just dealing with an idiot complete. “There are quite a lot of decimal points between £33bn and £16bn,” he pointed out. “When you’re sitting in your slippers chatting to Mrs Tyrie...” Cummings diverged, worried that he had not yet been sufficiently offensive. At this point several members of the committee started wondering if there was a doctor on call nearby, but Cummings was only just warming up. No, he couldn’t confirm whether a Vote Leave advert had been deliberately designed to look like an NHS brochure. No, he couldn’t confirm Britain was in the single market, because we definitely weren’t even though we definitely were. No he couldn’t confirm why Vote Leave was claiming that intra EU trade had fallen since 1999 when official figures showed it had actually gone up by 39%. So it went on. No, he couldn’t confirm when Vote Leave would make the macro-economic case for Brexit because these figures were obviously top secret and if he were to make them public then they wouldn’t be secret any more. No, he couldn’t name the Goldman Sachs operatives who had bribed everyone in Brussels, because he’d be killed. No, he couldn’t name any of of the umpteen ambassadors who had told him at secret trysts that they really hated the EU because if he did they would all just say he was crazy. “You’re not wrong there,” Labour’s Rachel Reeves observed drily, before leaving to lie down in dark corner. “For someone who claims to want to give sovereignty back to the British parliament you don’t seem to have much respect for the sovereignty of this committee,” Labour’s Helen Goodman pointed out. “I want my own special sovereignty,” Cummings shrugged, his look of slight sheepishness suggesting there might be a smidgeon of rationality lurking somewhere in his brain. The two Tory pro-Brexit MPs, Jacob Rees-Moog and Steve Baker, looked on embarrassed. One appearance by Cummings would have done more for the Remain cause than any number of speeches from David Cameron. They did their best to tee their man up with a few easy questions, much like members of a parole board trying to find some good in a prisoner who has managed for the first time to get through an entire group therapy session without assaulting anyone, but Cummings was much too far gone.
    3 points
  49. This is pretty disgusting stuff. Thank god the Yes campaign in Scotland didn't make it's case based on scare stories about e.g. immigrants from England stealing Scottish jobs / putting pressure on the Scottish NHS, while putting political views in the mouths of the fallen.
    3 points
  50. I wish we had seen charts like these within the reliable timeframe during the winter, just imagine how cold it would have been with a sustained Arctic flow for around a week or so which is more or less what the Ecm 12z op is showing this evening with reload after reload of arctic air digging south with the strongest thrust during the first half of next week. It looks like we will see a return of night frosts and becoming cold enough at times for the showers to turn wintry with a mix of rain, hail, sleet and even snow, the snow especially on northern hills but also in some of the heavier showers further south but we should all see sunny spells too and out of the chill Northerly breeze and in any decent sunshine it would still feel pleasant but the outlook is unseasonably cold for much of the next 7-10 days judging by this run.
    2 points
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