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HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON WEDNESDAY MAR 9TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A deep Low pressure across Southern England will move away SE across France later today and tonight with an occluded front across Central areas dissipating by tomorrow as pressure rises strongly across the UK under a ridge of High pressure. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will be a little higher than recently at around 3000ft over the next few days before rising slowly from the West and NW over the coming days. Snowfall will be restricted to the highest hills of England and Wales for a time today. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming less cold and mostly dry but perhaps turning rather colder again later with frost at night. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream is currently about to change it's orientation to a position NW of the UK and moving in a NE direction as pressure builds across the UK. Then as we go through the weekend and next week the Southern arm of the flow becomes stronger and moves North to become the main flow by then crossing West to East over the UK. Finally towards the end of the period the flow becomes much more unclear in both positioning and strength. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows pressure rising across the UK over the next few days as Low pressure over the South subsides away South. A belt of High pressure then lies across Southern Britain by the weekend while the North sees milder SW winds and all areas will feel the benefit of milder air for a time. However as High pressure shifts further North showery rain will be pushed NE across England and Wales as a SE to east flow develops. Then it'a all about the return of more changeable weather across the British isels in a Westerly flow by the end of the period. GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run shows a very similar trend to the Operational again this morning with the exception of colder conditions shown sweeping South across the UK again towards the end of the second week as High pressure to the West spreads wintry showery South with frosts at night. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters once again today look very undecided on what the UK will lie under in two weeks time as all sorts of options are shown ranging from Low pressure across the UK with rain at times and much slacker pressure areas with benign weather neither fine nor wet. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows High pressure building across Southern Britain in the next few days and extending slowly North later as it rests over the North Sea. Milder air will engulf the UK for a while before temperatures ease back a little in the South later as an ESE breeze develops here. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS From the Fax Charts this morning it would appear that substantially mild air is going to struggle to get down across the Southeast of the UK as a warm front introducing it straddles the middle of the UK over the weekend. So while the North and West become milder with some rain at times in the far NW the South and East look like staying dry if cloudy and somewhat cooler than originally thought. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM this morning maintains it's High pressure based predictions with the High centre mostly to the East or NE but never drifting far away from our shores. The weather will be benign for the most part with varying amounts of cloud and some sunshine and temperatures probably ending up close to average but with some night frosts at night. There are signs at the very end of the run that the High may be slipping away SE allowing Atlantic fronts into the NW. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM looks very high pressure focused too with the centre gradually extending as a belt across Southern Britain and nearby Europe to a migration somewhat further North later displacing the cloudy, damp and mild SW flow in the NW up to the weekend. Fine and settled conditions prevail for many with temperatures close to normal and the risk of some frosts at night should skies clear. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM today is a very settled one again with High pressure extending across Southern Britain in the next few days time and then extending to all of Britain over the weekend and beyond as the High centre drifts further North. Some bright Spring sunshine looks very likely for many with some frosts at night but temperatures by day would be close to average overall and perhaps quite mild at first. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 240hr mean Chart this morning continues to project a High pressure ridge likely to be lying across the UK in 10 days with fine and settled conditions in light winds most probable. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend is well set for the weather to become fine, settled and less cold from the latter end of the week with solid cross model support for High pressure to build across or remain close to the UK. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.7 pts to UKMO's 97.1 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.3 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 91.2 pts to UKMO at 89.3 pts and GFS at 86.7 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 66.0 pts to 61.2 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has regained the lead from GFS with a score of 46.3 pts to 46.2 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS This morning continues to project a change in the weather over the coming few days and then lasting for some considerable time. In the meantime we still have to get rid of this nasty Low pressure across Southern Britain this morning with it's attendant gales and heavy rain but once passed it looks like this could be the last heavy rain and strong winds we see in the South for quite a time. The orientation of the anticipated High pressure has changed somewhat over the last day or so and it now looks as if the High will lie in a belt across the South come the weekend with the mild Atlantic SW'lies affecting the North and West with a little rain at times here whereas in the South quiet and benign weather conditions will bring slightly colder air than first though here though it could hardly be described as cold. then as we move out of the weekend and through next week it looks like High pressure will extend across all of Britain with fine and settled weather with some sunshine by day and frosts where skies clear at night. Temperatures by day should be close to average and this might mean they fall back somewhat to levels expected at the weekend across the NW. With regard to the longevity of the spell the jury is out as a cocktail of synoptics from all models are shown for two weeks time offering no clues. however, there doesn't look to be anything alarmist to worry about within the next few weeks so let's sit back and enjoy a much welcome dry and fine period and with a bit of luck the strengthening sunshine at this time of year should signify thoughts that Spring proper is only just around the corner. Next Update Thursday March 10th 2016 from 09:00

LOL no I don't, I was just being positive about a DRY spell on the way that the models are showing but I can do without being criticized for being positive! Don't think I will bother posting if this is the attitude I'm going to get...thanks a lot!

So what would really be happening at this point? Well, you'd have more of a ridge just N of the UK and less to the S, and the shortwave to the west would be sliding SE into cold air. It's almost a given when the vortex has been entirely displaced from the Arctic, regardless of what GFS insists on showing. I'd say the odds of a notable cold spell in the final 10 days of March have increased today, and due to the depth of cold being exported from the Arctic to our near-NE in 9-10 days time, the snow potential is unusually high, though lying snow being restricted to the overnight hours unless something truly extraordinary happens (which is not out of the question but you'd have to be mad(den) to predict that sort of thing at this range with any degree of confidence).

It's all just a waiting game, we know the science and what should occur from atmospheric processes. Within next 7 days GFS has Trop PV moving to Siberia. It leaves an opening for heights to gain access to Greenland. If so, how far westward will the cold pool get? The cold is there.

I think you'll find that most of us would prefer to sit outside on a warm evening (20c +) with a cold beer. 15c would probably need a jumper/ jacket & the old hands would soon get cold without sun on them & any breeze can make it very uncomfortable after a few minutes. Still, each to their own, you wouldn't have to fight me for a table!

Indeed. You might recall how a few days ago I mentioned how GloSea5 wasn't wholly convincing on whether easterlies would propogate right down; whilst the reversal aloft has been clear-cut (eg see recent GloSea5 strat diagnostics below; I can't show latest version), the tropospheric effects remain less immediately tangible. Latest thinking is that whilst SSW hasn't incepted the HP story emerging by this weekend (= too short lead time), it does probably result in its apparent longevity. That is in itself still an imponderable, as (per previous posts), the ongoing signal for a return to lowering GPH and increasing cyclonicity post-21st *may* be too fast (models always tend to overcome blocking too readily)...but nonetheless, that outcome remains a clear and arguably growing possibility, given repeating ENS signs of such, including 12z EC-EPS.

As relaxed as ECM is with the pattern, we still see that seemingly inevitable retrogressing theme which increasingly looks to capture the Siberian vortex lobe as well as the Atlantic one. Signs in the tropics that the El Nino may serve to increase the upstream amplification at this time. Watch out for the trough/ridge combination in the Atlantic for later next week trending sharper over the next few days. The main thing that sticks out like a sore thumb for me is the continued 'roundness' of the high by the UK on the ECM run. Essentially I can see the risk that it transforms into more of a sausage shape aligned N-S or perhaps the revered heart-shape that reflects an omega block. As many will already be thinking, we could do with getting the move of the Siberian vortex in our direction out of the way sooner rather than later. Every week counts at this time of year and the balance tips strongly toward cold rain by mid-April. Though there is a counter-argument if you enjoy thunderstorms - unusually cold air aloft can combine with the strong April sunshine to produce dramatic results. Unless there's high pressure too close by, in which case extensive low cloud makes for a miserable heart of spring. On balance, a snowier outcome in late March is preferred! Really we can see the major ingredients on display here; - a fairly weak vortex remnant in thew eastern Atlantic that's responding to amplification driven by the tropical Pacific - a strong high in the vicinity of the UK that's looking to move poleward - a deep trough over Siberia, associated with the stronger, more persistent vortex remnant in that area. The depth of cold within is pretty good for the time of year (-15 to -25*C at the 850 hPa level). - a strong high in the Central-Northern Pacific. Also linked to the El Nino forcing, it raises the possibility of a cross-polar linkup with the high near the UK. Then you have the long-fetch easterly that Cohen anticipates, aligning well with the stratospheric profile despite the difficulties that looks to have propagating down. It's kind of like the tropical forcing patches up a damaged machine (one designed to achieve extensive high latitude blocking that directs cold toward the UK and NW Europe). However it pans out, it should be a fascinating period of model watching from a scientific perspective Just a shame that extensive low cloud will be likely to feature in our weather on at least a few occasions, it always ends up that way!

I'm sorry but I can't look forward to the most boring weather 10 degrees and cloudy, it may be dry, but that's about it. I would much prefer cold crisp days with a risk of snow, which are more than likely this time of year

If you count the amount that bought in a cold Arctic flow on the 18z (only a few) now nearly half the suite go cold, admittedly the ECM ens are not having it though.

Temperature is falling away now and grass is turning white. Snow now getting heavy. 1c

The gefs much more amplified than eps to the west with a strong greeny anomoly in two weeks time.

Yes, sounds reasonable. There has been a distinction by weekend between models re potential cloud cover & TMax...this will remain the key day to day forecast challenge across the next few days. Take for example the comparative f'cast profiles for 12z Sunday, London, from UKMO-GM (Red), ECMWF (Black) & GFS (Blue). Note lower temperature and moister ascent (at lower levels) in UKMO model versus drier/milder EC & GFS. Hopefully the continental fetch by then will favour more cloud breaks, but still a rather chilly feel in the SE corner whilst springlike in any sunshine as you head NW'wards.

You have to admire the work put in on this thread from the honourable members from Exmoor & The New Forest above. This forum is all the better for it. Many thanks to you both.

I wonder whether that pool of colder air that gets advected west might get upgraded over the next few days. The ECM and GFS both have this running east to west and this is associated with a small disturbance in the flow. The GFS has this currently mainly rain but something to look out for if the 850's get upgraded. A bit frustrating to see these good synoptics appearing in March. Wheres my time machine!

Actually 1868/69 was a warmer winter Karl. And although this winter has made it as the second warmest since records began, it's strange to think, in this era, we had to wait over 145 years for a winter warm enough to break into the top two warmest winters ever and move 1833/34 down to 3rd place Interestingly the CET for March 1869 ended up being sub 4C and nearly 3C lower than the average for the winter months just prior! Looking at some recent ensemble runs it's not out of the question that we could end up with something similar for this March

Yes the mean going to -5 by Good Friday. Some much colder options too. http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=0&ech=384 Some strange charts are starting to appear.

The latest det. runs certainly indicate that the axis of cold export from the Arctic may fall just a little too far east to hit us directly. A typical story and one that threatens to bring us weather that is merely chilly, grey and unpleasant. A shift either east or west improves our fortunes one way or another; the former in terms of more springlike weather, the latter for a late blast of wintry weather with snow a prominent feature. So who's betting we get that no-mans-land instead At least it looks to be largely dry for a long time, perhaps very long if we assume GFS' attempts to return zonality beyond day 9/10 are a result of model bias as opposed to a probable outcome. This GEFS mean leans toward the pattern evolving far east enough that we could even find ourselves on the side where warm air is flooding north as the counterpart to the cold air flooding south into western Asia/eastern Europe. EC ens. mean is similar and then even suggests a SW flow being possible. I'm not convinced that the Atlantic trough will find that much westerly momentum, however. The EC spread shows uncertainty to our east that reflects the potential for the Siberian trough to move closer, and uncertainty to west which suggests the Atlantic trough could be either nearer still (somehow!) or further away to the west. I do wonder if what we're seeing is the propagation down of the SSW stuttering a bit due to the neutral AO state, this preventing the fast-moving vortex remnant moving S of the UK and then W across the Atlantic from achieving much in the troposphere, while the near-stationary vortex remnant over Siberia is able to drive the trop. pattern due to its persistence in that area. A possible adjustment to watch out for is the vortex remnant near us ending up further south, with the polar jet following suit. That increases the odds of an undercut from the Atlantic trough, with the UK high heading NW. This does however lead me to expect a fairly brief spell of notable cold followed something fairly benign as the main blocking moves away but we have only a fairly weak jet stream to drive low pressure systems our way. Just speculation, mind!

The ecm 5-10 is as expected and really it will boil down to the precise orientation of the upper high. Moving along the ext EPS follows a not dissimilar route to the GEFS with the UK HP initially ridging towards Iceland with a weak trough edging east. This eventually ends up with ridging mid Atlantic and a weak trough over the UK and a NW flow; ergo weather more unsettled with temps a little below average. The main trough and colder air still situated NE Europe. I think the Easter barby might have to be in the woodshed.

Light to moderate wet snow just started..

Oh do you mean to the south of Greenland i.e. a mid-Atlantic high? In which case I see the logic. Interesting thoughts on the impacts of the AO state on the SSW @nick sussex, I had been thinking that a neutral or positive precursor AO is sufficient for a significant impact, but it could be that the ill-defined nature of a neutral AO interferes the propagation down and leads to a messier picture in the troposphere, with a more hit-and-miss result at the mid-latitudes. There was just a hint of zonal reversal right down to the surface in yesterday's ECM strat. output, but it was up near 80*N and quickly lost again: There is a real struggle to remove the 1000-100 hPa zonal winds at the lower latitudes (around 60*N). Proof that size isn't everything when it comes to a SSW event.

LOL,some!! Are you an Eskimo?

Thank god for that!!! only joking, no attitude from me, just a coldies perocative , squeezing the last bit of cold hope from the back end of my favourite season. We have 6 months ahead to chase for warm plumes and heat waves, we don't want to start with the mild chasing too early!!

Having seen my first falling snow this morning since Feb 2015, I can't help but notice that todays 12z gefs ensemble members seem to be showing an increasing number of cold or very cold options late in the run. Only one model I know but these very cold runs seem to be to be gradually increasing in number with time. Possibly a trend to keep an eye on.

You keep banging on about warm spring weather, but like shotski said it ain't gonna be that pleasant this time of year especially under cloud cover it will feel quite raw.

Expanding on the above - the GEFS outlook for the GWO has been adjusting upward and upward in recent days as it responds to the tropical forcing from the El Nino. So we see a modestly positive AAM orbit followed by the usual slow decline which may be largely a manifestation of the usual -ve AAM bias that plagues the model. This corresponds to the added westerly momentum that the model keeps finding in the 10-16 day range or even a couple of days sooner in some cases. GEM seems to behave in a similar way. Long story short, IF we do see the currently anticipated forcing from El Nino play out without a hitch (basically it's fighting back a bit against the seasonal decline), then I expect to see the idea of a gradual shift east in the pattern flipped around to one of gradual retrogression west. This would be a bold prediction of it wasn't for me sticking that massive caveat in as usual - we forecasters have to be sly in that way

Looking at the 12z ECM run over the past three days for midday 17th March it's clear that the cold is progressing both south and west across Europe, so its not so far fetched to think it can't keep going and make its way to southern UK or further.

Hi Frosty it will be dry for sure but grim under that cloud and probably feeling raw for folk in the south east. Cant wait !!!

Hi speedway slider found these on meteociel sorry they aren't translated. If you go onto meteociel and search dates in the archive section you can select the dates you require. I believe that 2nd June is the event you are looking for but I couldn't find any anomaly charts perhaps some of the more knowledgeable on here could help further.

Interesting how a shallow shortwave sneaks across Greenland and then bombs out as it engages with the Siberian vortex lobe. This is the sort of thing that happened in Dec 2010, with the low then drifting south then southwest to the UK. The big difference back then was that the low dropping our way became the primary vortex... with epic results. This run just absorbs the low into the Siberian vortex, which is what you'd expect to see really. It does have the effect of pulling that lobe to the west, however. Couple that with a less progressive Atlantic (which makes sense to me) and you've got a cold end to the third week of March coming up. Now just watch the progressive bias push everything east in lower-res

I don't think it's rather odd to still be looking for cold weather, especially as there was no winter across England and Wales, warmest since records began in 1659 and for all I know, the warmest winter since dinosaurs ruled the earth..Anyway, the Gfs 6z keeps some interest for coldies like me who were cheated of a winter yet again! I'm looking forward to the upcoming anticyclonic spell but would love an Arctic blast beyond it...if that makes me odd..so be it!

Did you notice there is an option to show the last four runs on the ensemble graphs from Meteociel - shows your point well, especially the progressive lowering of 500mb temps.

Through the roof! yesterday'stoday's although the 10hpa is on it's way down but never the less it's still impressive,it's a shame it has happened a bit late in the season,let's see what transpires from this. there is curtainly some eyecandy from the latest control run,with a reversal there

Quite an interesting run from the GFS 00Z with something for everyone really. Where we are now with this potent low moving through but clearing to the east as the day goes on. Looks like the dregs will hang around tomorrow with a largely dull day for most before improving Friday onwards with a little bit more in the way of sunshine, but certainly not a spring fest. Never really becoming that warm before the cool easterly sets in early next week. Could feel quite raw depending on cloud amounts. Wedge of -5 uppers crossing the country. A matter of days later winds veer southerly bringing up milder air (Spanish plume anyone?) Then normal March fare resuming in FI. It's pretty nailed that a dry spell of probably about 10 days is coming though I doubt it will feel that impressively springlike with a nagging breeze across the south especially, better further north. What will make the difference is the amount of sunshine. I think there's been a signal for a less anticyclonic final third to the month. That will need monitoring as we get nearer the time.

SNOW......1·4c pressure 995·3hpa

We had another couple of SSWs since 2009 - February 2010 and January 2013. The last one certainly propagated down swiftly and had a lasting and memorable effect - well captured in the modelling. This event just maybe delayed or there is something else going on which is not being factored in. I posted a paper in the Strat. thread which, I think, outlines the progression of this winter well. No strength to Wave 2 and is in fact an overlap in Wave 1 that actually interferes with midwinter SSW development.

I share the frustration of most coldies that this latest SSW is not looking like it will deliver the last wintery blast . However, all is not lost yet, and just to remind us of what that would look like .......... Also as a fellow New Forester now living away, I would ask Singularity not to worry too much about the wildlife. It is more adaptable than we are. I feel we are the problem for wildlife rather than the weather.

Thanks for your take on things Phil I'm aware of the lack of propagation down but that's just the thing - for a SSW that splits the vortex clean in two, there really should be propagation right down to the troposphere and at a fair old pace too. Unless, of course, the theory I have read through is not entirely correct or has overlooked possible exceptions to the rule. On the other hand, Fergie has mentioned the issues with models struggling to handle the SSW (though the latest such advice was a few days back I think) and past experience does suggest that for whatever reason, the propagation mechanism is something the models have a hard time capturing effectively. The actual outcome this month will have major ramifications in terms of how far the models have progressed since the last major SSW in 2009. Edit: @knocker just wanted to check, is this an accidental contradiction in your post? "GEFS building heights south of Greenland thus veering the wind. Thus the weather turning more unsettled and the temps returning to around average" tia.

The cross-polar heights are missing on this run. There certainly is a strange lack of tropospheric response to the SSW on this run; you'd expect to see a strong height rise at the high latitudes, not a weak ridge with low pressure continuing over the pole. Could it be that the rather fast movement of the stratospheric pattern is preventing the models from establishing a defined change in the troposphere; they get pulled in one direction, then another, as the location of displaced vortex remnants and the upper level ridge changes at a considerable pace? The way this 12z ECM run evolves looks more like an MJO-driven amplification via an upstream trough digging down in the Atlantic. It has a weak MJO in phase 2 and that does produce such a response despite the low level of activity: Note the proximity of the trough in the Atlantic - perhaps a reason for the trouble some ensemble members have had shutting the Atlantic out (that signal for lowering heights that Fergie has advised caution over)? Interesting to then consider what a greater level of activity in phases 3 and 4 might lend support to: ...this being something UKME is looking keen on. GEFS is a bit 'out there' with it's idea of the MJO fading out and then looking to re-emerge in the Central Pacific, but after it's success with the recent 7/8 activity, I hesitate to rule that idea out. It does explain some of the added momentum that the det. run finds in lower-res, though I'm pretty sure it went too far with it. Still a high risk of unseasonably cold conditions in the second half of this month, even with that chance of snow. I saw a whole afternoon of light snow on 4th April 2013, albeit not settling. It carried on as pure, almost powdery snow even when the sun broke through the clouds a bit around noon, which left me staggered. That such can happen at just 50 m elevation in CS England, a fortnight after the spring equinox, reveals the power of a deep pool of cold continental air - and if you're imagining that the uppers were something like -10 or lower on that day, think again; -7 to -8*C at the 850 hPa level. This is why it raises my eyebrows when I see the output for mid-March suggesting uppers getting to -10*C or below over Scandinavia and with an easterly flow to the UK. That's what ECM would look like for day 11 I expect. Yes, most likely nuisance cold, but fascinating from a meteorological standpoint. I do feel sad for the wildlife though - mixed emotions on such events.

I'm intrigued feb - feel free to elucidate.

http://www.warehamwx.com/cu/gauges.htm 28.4mm so far. Most of the rain fell last night- 17mm in 2 and a half hours. I find it odd that the MetO would miss out a small section of a warning like that, there's reports of trees down and the roads are a mess. I've just got back from Poole, and there's floods all over the place coming back in to town. I have to say, it is very strange having winds this strong from the Northwest..

yeah 15c would definitely require a jumper for me. A 20c evening is just about perfect.

I'm in Bournemouth, , 100% rain here and the beach is deserted

Yes as pointed out in the strat thread, wave 2 has been very weak this winter - Though there is some vortex splitting forecast, it is not unusual for daughter vortices to form during/following a displacement which causes confusion when classifying SSW type as seen in this table from Charlton & Polvani - But the current splitting is not by the classical wave 2 forcing and it may be that the underlying forcing mechanism helps determine how quickly and effectively the SSW downwells - a strong trop/strat wave 2 would be predisposed to a split vortex.

I'm in bath and heavy sleet but it changes to all snow very often and with this wind it's all most blizzard conditions. fromey

It's getting very rough out there, rain is rattling against the window and the wind has picked up.

The rain has just arrived here! I have to say, I cannot fault the text forecast & conditions on my site: http://www.warehamwx.com/cu/index.php

The projected 500hPa pattern over the next couple of weeks continues to defy the warmings and wind reversal going on higher up. If we look at the last GFS/ECM Strat forecasts at day 10 we can see how the upper vortex has been demolished over the pole-this at 30hPa- but at the lower levels of the Strat we can see that familiar axis of twin vortex segments over Canada and Siberia-albeit in a less robust state.I should add these are the last runs available so are a day or so behind now but they are suitable for this purpose i think. Looking at the mean day 10 GFS and the NOAA 8-14 forecast heights we can see the NH pattern close to the lower Strat pattern so i think currently this is why we are not seeing the polar heights as the down welling of zonal wind reversal is not as yet complete. This may still filter down in time but the last ECM forecast we have does not yet show this the blue areas are the -ve zonal winds. So what we see is a blocking high both at the lower Strat. and troposphere level forecasted around the UK locale from the week end and continuing through the following week. There does look a trend to gradually send more of the vortex split down through the Siberian side but unfortunately if looking for a late dose of deep cold the main thrust of Arctic air looks like spilling much further east into E.Europe and Russia.

High pressure starting to dominate our weather from the end of this week makes a nice change saying that rather low pressure dominating!

If you come weighted down with a sack or three of snow for me to play with, you're more than welcome.

Whoooooshka!!! 30 and 10 hpa