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Running through the ENS on GFS it looks like any warmth is short lived , several options bringing much cooler weather back to the UK mid month onwards Snow falling at Easter cant be ruled out

Unanimous 12z EC cluster support for the settled anticyclonic story 13-15 March inclusive...at least. There's two clusters thereafter to end of run (20th), the largest of which continues the settled theme beyond 15th until it relents later (below). Interestingly and perhaps instructively, the increasingly cyclonic look evident by 20th on EC12z cluster 1 now tallies with longer range suites, which also go that direction w/c 21st (d15). Thereafter lies the conundrum: whether the UK sees a more blocked pattern eventually set-up that could go 50-50 (either blocked as an anticyclonic regime here, or as a cyclonic one). Whilst the long range products do agree on GPH falling after d15, as noted on Thurs the latest EC Monthly offers no useful signal thereafter re temperatures etc, with GloSea5 adding little additional steer. However, GloSea5 strat diagnostics do continue to show some degree of downward propagation of post-SSW easterlies late March-early April and as the UKMO note, should those reach the lower troposphere (and that's not *yet* a given), then the risk of more meandering jet and blocking/colder than average weather would increase into the turn of month. At present, the outcome later this month is too tricky to call, but at least the likelihood of a pleasant spell into mid-month continues to find growing support.

A few photos of my Peak District walk: A snowy A57 Snake Pass A view looking north with the tracks I have made in the snow The Kinder Plateau View from the top of Kinder Scout looking north

ECMWF 0z shows WAA push into polar region via UK on the 14th March.If it goes through with purpose, it will close the door behind it and allow Siberian air to move westward towards UK. Whatever the outcome will be. It is going to be very fascinating to watch this process play out.

Really stunning Ecm 12z from the end of next week onwards which is almost a carbon copy of the superb week 2 from the Gfs 6z op run. I hope this gains momentum and we see high pressure taking centre stage for a change! This run eventually shows very warm weather for so early in the season and following the winter that never was, I hope early spring brings increasingly warm and settled weather during the mid march period.

Options of much chillier weather So many blocked set ups on the cards , be interesting viewing adter mid month

GFS shows what I warned about, albeit not as fast as feared. ECM has gone from furthest south with the jet midweek to furthest north, which lowers confidence in proceedings - but a notable increase in temperatures does look the form horse for a time later next week. With luck that'll hold on into the weekend and feature enough high pressure to bring settled weather with it. The balance of play between the Azores/Euro High and those height rises across Svalbard will be important. The split in the stratosphere has become better defined in the GFS output again after a couple of days where it became rather uncertain. The location is one that supports height rises N and NE of the UK. I'm inclined to pay most attention to the model runs that show the strongest height rises during the weekend, as this ties in best with the theoretical impact of this SSW event. Interestingly the whole 30 hPa setup retrogresses during the rest of the run: That supports the idea of a long-fetch easterly as reverse zonality takes over from central/eastern Asia right across to the UK. It may seem crazy but such an outcome could bring the UK at least a brief blast of deeply cold air (assuming a lot of modification with us at the western end of the line). After that, the pattern likely transitions to height rises NW of the UK, which I suspect ushers in a 'nuisance' period of chilly/cold (for time of year) but not all that snowy (if at all!) conditions for the southern half of the UK at least. Oh I'm sorry, is that glass actually half full? For a positive take - at least it tends to be drier when easterlies are about as opposed to westerlies!

We drove to The Peak District to see snow: well worth it!

Well Just Got Back From Buxton. Drove Up From Brum As Looking Like Last Chance Of This Awful Winter. There Was Around 6 to 8inches Around There, As Driving Up It Was Sleeting Raining All The Way To Just After Leek A53. Then Whiteout Conditions Just Before Buxton. It Was Worth The Eve As Eventually Bought A Smile On Daughters Face Even Though Had To Drive An Hour Or so For It. Gone The Classic Guaranteed Winters. Soon Frost Will Become Precious.

T+360...seriously? Are you havin a laff P.S...it's nice to see the mutual admiration society in this thread tonight....keep it up gang!

Its the 5th March, for this date the average maximum here is 8.4C and the average minimum 2.4C. Today the temps have been a max of 7.8C and min of 2.9C, so not far off at all. I can't ever understand why when we reach the 1st March everyone expects it to be 15C. That's actually the average max in early May and is just as far from the mean as a cold spell with snow and a max of 2C.

The Gfs 6z op run turns warm and anticyclonic for week 2 with plenty of sunshine and light winds with temperatures widely into the mid teens celsius and high teens for some! This would be very pleasant indeed and it would make a nice change to see high pressure building in and gaining a firm foothold and intensifying over the uk..

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON SATURDAY MAR 5TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION An occluded and weakening front across Central Britain this morning will pull away SE through the day clearing the east coast tonight and leaving a rather cold Northerly air stream across the UK for the weekend. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will remain around about the 2000ft mark for much of the weekend but maybe a little lower than this under the occluded frontal zone at first. Snowfall amounts will be small or negligible for most through this weekend with any snow light and fleeting over higher ground exposed to the north once today's occluded front has gone. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Rather cold and breezy at first with rain or showers at times with snow on hills. Then becoming less cold but windy with rain at times especially in the North. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream is shown to continue to blow SE or South across the UK and Western Europe in association with Low pressure moving East then SE to the North or east of the UK in the next 3-4 days. Thereafter the Thereafter the flow backs West to east across the UK late next week at least for a time before becoming less clear cut in positioning and strength towards the end of the period. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows the same pattern as has been shown for days now with the cold and changeable conditions giving way eventually to milder West or even very mild SW winds for a time by next weekend with rain at times towards the North. In week 2 the High pressure area to the South builds North through the UK with fine and settled weather for all. However, it looks like temperatures would fall back again with frosts at night before changeable Westerly winds return at the end of the run. GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run shows a variation on the same theme as the Operational today with chilly North winds backing to a milder West or SW flow by next weekend with the second week seeing High pressure build across the UK from the South or SW. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters today show a bias towards Low pressure close to northern Scotland or to the NE with cyclonic winds across the UK from the West or NW the most likely option with rain or showers at times. Up to 20% of members support a more High pressure based pattern centred near to the SW of the UK. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning has a much flatter look about it today meaning cold weather will depart to the East by midweek with a milder Westerly flow with rain at times especially across the north and West of the UK taking hold through the second half of next week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show good support for it's operational partner with fronts orientating more West to East across the UK towards midweek with rain at times and less cold air filtering in from the West. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM this morning takes a different approach and instead of allowing milder westerlies midweek shows a Low pressure taking a more SE route down across the UK with more rather cold conditions with rain and hill sleet clearing as High pressure builds behind it across the South. This then extends across all areas later with dry benign days but frosty nights where skies stay clear. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM takes the milder route with rain spreading from the West midweek replacing the rather cold conditions until then. rain will be most prevalent towards the North and West by next weekend with milder air by then for all. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM today returns to it's milder roots this morning following last night's changes. Therefore although mild weather is shown to take until Thursday/Friday next week to take a strong foothold once it does temperatures could exceed average levels in the South with rain from fronts more restricted towards the North and West as High pressure builds to the South. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN Not released at time of publishing this morning's report. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The pattern between the models appear to be continuing to give good cross model support for a change to milder Westerly winds arriving across the UK. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.5 pts to UKMO's 96.9 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.2 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.7 pts to UKMO at 88.2 pts and GFS at 86.1 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 65.3 pts to 61.5 pts. Finally at Day 10 GFS has the lead from ECM with a score of 49.5 pts to 47.1 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS Things may look very different synoptically by this time next week if this morning's output is anything to go by. The main culprit of the change to milder air next week is the re-orientation of the Jet Stream which has recently been pulled South over or to the West of the UK with Britain being on the cold side of this. By the middle of next week the jet flow backs West to East over the UK or even further North with the potential for some very mild weather to threaten the South at least on a week's time. In the meantime we still have 3-4 days of rather cold and rather changeable weather to come with a little rain or even snow at times over the hills before a band of wind and rain midweek opens the door to the Atlantic. thereafter there looks to be rain at times in strong west winds for the North, but less so for the South before all areas look like becoming dry and fine at some point through the second week as there appears sound support for pressure to rise strongly then at least for a time. This may mean of course temperatures falling back somewhat again with the re-introduction of a frost risk at night but any daytime sunshine should support temperatures still approaching normal values of not above dependent on where the resting place of any High pressure may end. Towards the very end of the period the usual variability of output is shown with the favoured Atlantic westerly option hinted at returning again by the GFS model in particular. So as I said yesterday a typical early Spring mix of weather across the UK in the next few weeks but on the face of it it doesn't look that bad. Next Update Sunday March 6th 2016 from 09:00

Not a bad day so far with some sunshine but a cold wind especially out of the sun, got up to 6.3c but feeling lower with the wind chill. Meanwhile up in the Yorkshire Dales some impressive snow totals from yesterday, looks deeper with the drifting.

Why not? It isn't an outrageous suggestion. In 2008 there was settling snow in London on 6 April.

The one from the window is from later in afternoon showing the additional snow on the fence after it had fallen off at about midday.....the measurements were taken at midday..... Snowed continuously for 9 hours with spotty snow flurries after..... Still 4-5 inches on ground, not really melted just compacted....

I think you're absolutely right to keep posting these ensemble charts as I think they make a point. Pressure is going to rise towards the UK next weekend - but will it rise through us? Cold is finally boarding the Siberian express to Europe - but how deep? The warm weather will surely come now, but it's going to be fascinating to see what it leads to after. A full blown Siberian blast is not completely dead in the water.

Beer garden stuff next weekend and following few days from GFS12z, lovely - early spring warmth !

Based on the SSW and final warming I would think. There will be a tanking -AO and the cold air has to go somewhere.

It was just good natured banter knocker, I wasn't knocking you or anything. I have enjoyed reading this thread tonight with peope being extra nice to each other..much better than bickering!..and i had snow today

Turning drier and milder by next weekend, this extending northwards with time according to the ECM That day 9 chart is a cracker with widespread fine weather and the 12C isotherm approaching the south of the UK. GFS and GEM solutions Pretty good support for this solution, the JMA is cooler with the pattern a little further west.

IT IS SNOWING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Again after mid month we see another change to cooler weather A short period of HP for the UK giving milder conditiond before a change to cooler /colder weather as we head towards Easter, falling Snow cannot be ruled out

Great seeing the animals so active moffatross, deer, red squirrels, birds and rabbits coming out from the woods to feed today About 5cm since last night, some heavy showers so far today but a lot of huff and puff for little return really. Managed to mix a hangover with a kids party, won't be doing that again in a hurry

I'm afraid that is just poor. We should be looking at this and see what the consequences if any, to aid our understanding of future SSW events. Should look beyond just looking for cold and snow.

The ECM less interested this morning in building that stronger block although the overall pattern is similar. The T168 and T192hrs is the timeframe to watch as that's when the Atlantic troughing starts to dig further south and this is when the models might force a stronger ridge north ahead of that. Even if that happens though you still need some way to get the cold in from the ne, if theres to be a sudden change in the outputs with a quick trop response to the SSW then it will show up within the next few runs as the SSW is due within the next 24 hours.

Certainly PM. Sidneyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy

As already stated looking good for some settled and warmer weather starting towards the end of next week. The anomalies all agree with the trough mid Atlantic and the HP very adjacent to the UK with the upper flow in the westerly quadrant. It does depend to a certain extent on the exact orientation of the surface HP but there is some wiggle room it looks okay for a few days. Moving forward it's not quite so clear cut. NOAA does build weak heights towards the Pole but still maintains a westerly flow so no major problem. The EPS 10-15 is actually very similar although perhaps orientated more towards Greenland. This is actually a bit deceptive as it's a five day average and if you look at individual days towards the end of the run the HP retrogresses and with the trough to east edging west as well the upper flow veers to N of W bringing the temps down to average and again some periods of unsettled weather. I think this is still a work in progress.

Seeing as my house currently does not have a roof on it lol!!! this chart is just lovely. (by the way I am not currently living in it hahahah)

great charts Frosty, hope mushymanrob a few posts above is wrong

Quite correct Sidney's nephew is already smelling the coffee

After a wobble last night ECM is back on track bringing in some significantly milder air later next week and into the following week With the days getting longer and the sun getting stronger we could be seeing temps reaching the high teens in the south should we see some sunshine

Hello spring!

Sorry to go on - if thats the case why is it ok for you to say it wont snow, lets be fair Mush

Let's hope so Phil, some recent runs have shown similar outcomes for mid March bringing pleasantly warm and settled conditions it would make a nice change to see high pressure in the ascendancy after months of seemingly endless Atlantic depressions with barely any respite!

And as we speak it's snowing outside, love it

Try the very recent, very cold and snowy March, WINTER 2013!! Interesting meteorology right there!!

Mushy The charts I posted earlier in the thread shows a possibilty of colder weather after mid month - it snowed here yesterday with temps at 5c , so why cant it at Easter.? You yourself said it could well be colder at Easter - so I assume you are saying HP sat directly over us,?

Morning all! It's been a few weeks since I've been on here, been away visiting family and now that the builders have gone we've been cracking on with the decorating. We have a shiny new roof at the back f the house and a warm, draught free bedroom, new flooring arrives next week and we should hopefully be able to move into it by next weekend. Then we start ripping apart the other bedroom! The good thing is all the old wood panelling that was removed is being recycled in our fire! Waste not want not! Cool today at 3.5c, cloudy with light showers.

ECM brings in spring proper from late next week could easily get into the high teens in the latter stages in the south if we got some sunshine

A fascinating period coming up I feel. Firstly, most models agreeing upon the sudden onset of spring next week, with even 20C not off the table. But then after, well, I'm drawn to those of runs that throw Eastern Europe into their coldest spell of the whole season mid-month, with uppers between -10C and -16C. And at the same time, an SSW which might just lend itself to a "Svalbard block". (Stress: MIGHT) We're even seeing southerly tracking lows heading towards this cold pool on some GFS runs. Reminds me a bit of April 1989 -basking in mid 60s over the Easter weekend, but 5 days later, 3 inches of snow on the ground (the only snow of the year in the SE). It's all about getting that cold pool into Eastern Europe between D6 and D10. If it does, don't write off a wintry shock after any mid-month warm up. If it doesn't, probably game over for snow.

Ignore those height rises in the Svalbard area at your peril... the ECM ensembles and NOAA analysis show good support for that (despite the large variance in the former, which arguably makes the mean charts poorer than usual guidance for the time being) and it can draw up a Euro High to the high latitudes really quite suddenly if there is upstream amplification - which there really should be going by the MJO behaviour. I am wary of taking these fine, springlike chances seriously right now - we've seen a few supposed shifts north of the jet turn out to be red herrings these past two months and as a result I figure this needs another 1-3 days of model runs before we can be confident in things going one way or the other. Believe me, after another dose of sleety rubbish I'm as keen to be shot of winter as anyone - but I just can't quite bring myself to believe it in the face of what the global teleconnections are suggesting. If ever I've hoped to get it wrong...!

It's supposed to be taken in the context of my previous post Frosty. I forgot to add I wasn't taking into account Mars being in a retrograde orbit.

All I can say about the ECM run is this. Celebrating it is like celebrating a 0-0 draw in football. It isn't cold or warm, just grey and cool and pleases absolutely no one.

dont worry about the ecm.... it will not become reality!

Nice drive home through North Derbyshire,came down into Hope Valley,should be renamed little Switzerland today! Truely beautiful if a bit hairy on the road,much more what winter should be about,loved,loved it! How people could dislike such stunning views as what i've seen today is beyond me. This is proper weather,something that literally takes your breath away.

So to be honest Ian this goes very much against the recent updates of the last 2 weeks . Firstly the major warming now was not meant to be the final warming but now it is ? Sounds a bit dubious to be honest . Secondly the blocked cold late March early April has been something you have mentioned consistently recently and now the models have dropped it ? I completely understand you can only go by the most recent updates but it really goes to show how fickle even the super computers of this world can be . I really find it pointless in giving forecasts of 3/4 weeka in the future when come nearer the time models see things very differently .this is something that happens a fair bit . It's only the weather is suppose but it's a tad frustrating when things change like the clappers . It just makes me take every forecast out there with a massive pinch of salt and even you most recent update will probably be different next week . Enjoy the rollercoaster guys

Nah, I want 30C heat and 9pm sunsets now, It is March after all, why isn't it happening?! I'll be looking for snow again in subzero October. In all seriousness though, I'm sat here looking at 4+ inches of snow on the ground and the snow is still falling. 5 hours and counting. Don't get me wrong, I like Spring and Summer like the next man, but I don't get the mad rush for it to begin. We've got months and months of that not long from now. No rush, I say.

Every year I promise myself I will not look at the Netweather seven day forecast....so many promises of snow that never, ever transpire...yet still I do it....sick to death of this horrible winter, of the endless wind, rain, mud, wind, rain and yet more rain...and the mud. Lost count how many bad falls I have had trying to cross the field to feed my horses. I'm no spring chicken and it hurts! Fed up with no snow, fed up with mud and fed up with downgrades.....rant over....