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Still showing it lol

The point is Nick the upper air pattern has changed little, according to the anomaly charts, in the region you mention for 4 maybe 6 days now. Remember also that the anomaly charts are a mean value over the 6-10 day period, let alone synoptic short scale changes in the next 24-120 hours. It also explains why NOAA are talking of 'the reamplification of the upper ridge after short waves embedded in the main trough-ridge system have passed through. It would seem unlikely, unless the ECMWF anomaly chart is correct, for any change in the overall long wave pattern in the next 6-12 days possibly 15 days or so, especially in the UK area. Of course EC may be right but several years of watching suggests it is less likely to keep its idea come tomorrow. But then one never knows and even UK Met tend to alter emphasis over most times scales. What does seem highly unlikely is enough of a change in the long wave upper pattern to bring real spring like weather to the UK in the time scales I have mentioned. (spring being warmer not colder in climatology than winter!)

Indeed. As do EC clusters out to 10th March. The expected pattern into early March heralds prospect of repeated bouts of Am incursions, much akin to the current one, with risk of deeper cyclonicity passing to S/SE of UK at times.

Just saw weather for week ahead with Alex Deakin and after weekend "bitter" North Easterly with temps of 9 degrees in London lol things will remain coolish with winds turning more North Westerly and there could be some rain about, especially in NW parts of UK. This pretty ties in with charts that JH shows us which I feel give a good indicator. I really hoped at start of February we were going to see some nationwide cold by end of this month as the profile of NH looked quite good but that was maybe wishful thinking on my part. After todays pleasant sunshine I think I am hoping for spring now as the search of snow for last 3 months has really tried my patience and the towel is very close to being thrown in.

By and large the 12z output is an absolute disaster.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON WEDNESDAY FEB 24TH 2016 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION The slack North or NW flow established over the UK will back more Westerly tomorrow as Low pressure begins to transfer South to the West of the UK tomorrow pushing a trough slowly East towards the SW approaches. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK lies between 2000ft to 2500ft across the UK with the lowest figures towards Northern Scotland where some snow showers are occurring with wintry showers on hills of the Lake District and Cumbria as well at times. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Some rain or showers at times with snow over hills. Temperatures mostly near or somewhat below average. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream is moving South to the West of the UK over the next few days and then turns East across Spain and the Mediteranean Sea. Thereafter the flow although ebbing and flowing maintains a direction of flow from the NW to the SE next week and probably beyond close to or across the UK. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows Low pressure developing and sliding SE to the SW of the UK and down over Biscay and Spain with a developing and cold east flow developing over the weekend in the South. A little rain or sleet on the SW for a time will give way to a largely dry weekend with sunshine in the North and a few wintry showers near Eastern coasts. Next week sees winds backing Westerly for a time and introducing more changeable conditions alternating between cloudy and damp conditions with cold and showery Northerly flows with some snow at times on hills and in the North and East. With High pressure increasingly lying to the West of the UK later in the period there looks no quick exit to the rather cold North or NW feed of air as we move into March. GFS CONTROL RUN The Control Run today is different in the second week as it keeps High pressure further towards the South and SW of Britain rather than to the West meaning there will be more lengthy spells of less cold Westerly winds in the changeable theme of the second week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters today show a mix of options with the 50% share going for High pressure lying close to the SW or South in two weeks time with dry and bright conditions in a Westerly breeze in average temperatures. Some Northerly charts are also shown by some members amounting to 40% so no clear guarantees of which option is likely to verify. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows an Easterly flow developing across the South towards and over the weekend as Low pressure having moved down to Spain moves ENE through the Med. A ridge follows South across the UK cutting off the cold and rather cloudy flow with a day or so of frosty weather before a flat Westerly pattern looks like developing next week with less cold weather with rain at times especially in the North towards midweek. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today illustrate the story of the raw data well with low pressure moving past the SW with some rain or sleet and hill snow from an occlusion over Friday and early Saturday before it is swept away to the SE to leave a cold and raw NE flow with a lot of cloud and a few wintry showers near the SE for a time before the ridge over Scotland slips SE to other areas by the start of next week. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM today shows good agreement with other outputs showing the passage of Low pressure to the South of the UK with a raw East wind at the weekend followed by a cold ridge of High pressure and the subsequent changeable and rather cold conditions following from the NW with rain and showers turning wintry at times especially in the North and East through the latter stages of next week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM too takes the same track of events over the next week with changeable synoptics amounting to maintaining rather cold weather and although a lot of dry weather some wintry showers near coasts at times, a little rain or sleet in the SW on Friday and more generally next week as a chilly NW feed of air establishes. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM this morning looks much like UKMO this morning at the Day 6 stage and this agreement supports less chance of any further cold air reaching the South after this weekends East winds and subsequent ridge passes. As High pressure is more pronounced South of the UK next week supporting a flatter Westerly flow from the Atlantic rain at times is likely in temperatures returning to average levels with any colder showery interludes restricted to the far north and NE http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart has backed the flow more Westerly across the UK this morning than over recent outputs suggesting that more members are moving away from a cold North or NW feed towards a flatter Westerly pattern with a more even split of members culminating in a chart that can offer periods of both weather types rather cold or average. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme remains for a rather cold couple of weeks though ECM and UKMO support a milder Westerly pattern later. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 97.1 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.4 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 91.6 pts to UKMO at 89.7 pts and GFS at 87.9 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 70.7 pts to 64.7 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads today at 53.9 pts to GFS's 51.4 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS The models still support a lot of rather cold synoptics over the next few weeks but there are cracks in the pattern within the models with a marked change in the Euro's longer term this morning which seem to support more chance of a flatter and less cold Westerly pattern establishing later next week recovering temperatures to closer to average levels for many away from the far North. The GFS Clusters too support the above change with High pressure showing much more consistency in positioning itself just to the South of the UK rather than ridging North through the Atlantic. Though not conclusive this is a big shift away from the potentially cold and in places wintry start to March all models seem to be leaning towards as recently as yesterday and while the previous model predictions still hold some support it is without doubt a new trend that has gained quite a bit of support within a short period of time so should be taken seriously. However, in the meantime we have a rather cold and messy picture over the next 3-4 days as Low pressure slips SE to the SW of the UK and threatens some patchy rain, sleet or snow into the SW for a time and then as a NE flow develops for a time the SE and East coasts could see some wintry showers for a time later in the weekend. Then a few days of cold and crisp weather with night frosts lead us into the pattern highlighted at the top of my report with the weather taking one of two ways. As said earlier there is still some support for a lot of cold NW or North winds at times with sleet or snow showers at times especially over the North and East with short wet spells in between as new Low pressure passes Se to the NE of the UK. Alternatively the UKMO, GFS Clusters and ECM route would support cloudier and less cold weather with rain at times in a Westerly flow with the North and West as usual in these situations capturing the most wind and rain. In expressing my own opinion and given the theme of the Winter past I would come down on the side that the Euro's may well have the right message this morning with a gradual return to average temperatures later next week with some rain at times especially in the North being the growing outcome likely with only short colder interludes towards the North and NE. Next Update Thursday February 25th 2016 from 09:00

a few posts pruned in the interests of keeping the peace...........As we all know, the weather can bring out the best and occasionally the worst in all us weather enthusiasts, and indeed, debate is a focal point of all forums regardless of the topic. I would though respectfully ask for all to keep debate friendly and 'to the point'.....personal comments, whether deliberate or not often lead to post exchanges that detract from the otherwise good natured chat in the thread. Thanks

Sorry if this is slightly off the wall.... It turns out on the 6th Feb a meteorite hit the earths' atmosphere 600 miles off the coast of Brazil and exploded unleashing an energy equivalent of 13,000 tons of TNT. This is the largest atmospheric impact recorded since the famous Chelyabinsk meteor that exploded over Russia in 2013 - which happened around the same time of year. Can't help wondering if this had an impact upon the atmosphere and that it was soon after that the models began to show their colder outcomes with the PV distressed. The 2013 impact was bigger....and of course therafter followed our coldest March for over 50 years. This year it appears as if March could again be a cold one, albeit as well as the meteor explosion being smaller, we began from a much colder starting point. I'm not saying there is a connection.... but it's an interesting consideration. If such atmospheric explosions can send waves of impact around the world that upset existing balances and impact upon our weather, it would mean the models have got a long long way to go before they contain all the data they need to provide us with the accurate runs some demand of them

It was a beautiful day in Moffat today, the cloud came on for a bit and delivered some very light, but dry and fluffy snow, but it's ended clear and starlit, and not a breath of a breeze. Took a stroll up onto Tinto hill from Wiston Lodge late last night and got a wonderful view of Glasgow and the Central Belt to the north, and the motorway and railway winding their way through the Southern Uplands to the south. But it was f... b.. brrrrrr.... cold up there at 11 pm From Tinto summit, moonlight illuminates the south of Scotland. Below is the village of Wiston, the west coast mainline railway, Abington services and the M74, and the lights on the Lowther Hills radio installations. Looking north to the Glasgow 'burbs with my pal illuminating Tinto's summit OS trig point.

No quick return to a westerly Atlantic regime if the GFS 6z FI is to be believed. Pretty much blocked off from t192 through to t384... In reality, since there' little coming from a westerly or south westerly direction even prior to t192 you could say it's blocked from t0 to the end of the run. Especially liek the little feature running over the top in the latter stages and down the North Sea...

back online so if i have something to add then i can add it! nothing to get me over excited re snow prospects at the moment. when its cold enough then there is no precip and vica versa. the upper trough in week 2 is edging west and over us in the eps which will doubtless be cool and damp! thereafter, the ens in general are sniffing a decent s greeny height rise. hopefully not a transient affair. at two weeks distance, an impressive mean signal. will be approaching mid march by that juncture so the cards really do have to be dealt carefully to bring lowland snowfall to the southern half uk. tbh, given the chances of that, i would prefer to see the advent of spring. cold rain just doesn't 'float my boat'. no doubt those in the north and at elevation will be more optimistic!

So this winter; It hasn't delivered what many would have hoped, though of course it was very clear that the winter would be at best back loaded for cold (nothing of sorts until mid-January). In the end we have seen 3 potential cold set ups that had a realistic chance of delivering for us. In the end it hasn't resulted in much of note for our region, just like last winter. On thing I will say is that there is nothing wrong about posting cold charts at the 4-7 day range, just because they haven't materialised this winter doesn't mean that they won't next winter or so on. In fact back in 2012/13 we saw cold spells verifying from around a week out with delicate set ups resolved very well at around day 5 (Thinking of the UKMOs performance during the January cold spell). I have enjoyed trying to pick out some cold prospects with some stunning output in a range which you would feel would have a good chance of getting close to verifying. Unfortunately a series of very strong and conflicting signals have hampered the model output this winter with anything other than zonal westerlies being difficult to pick up and as such meant some very disappointing results at the business end of these colder periods. In the end I have enjoyed some of the fun and games of the chase this winter even if the results have been poor. One thing I will say it is fine to be positive and ramp a little, especially if the output is within 7 days or so, it is also fine to be more reserved but that doesn't mean that every cold spell should descend into a fight between the two groups. Maybe I need to learn more banter perhaps

Yep - flat and zonal is the theme (as you were!) At least we have a few frosts to salvage something from the wreckage of this winter. Not to self: Only trust any output up to day 4 (96 hours) and even then only if there is cross-model support - treat everything else as indicative only.

By the looks of it, probably insert another coin and try again GFS and GEM for the same time Both American models show low pressure moving into the trough over Europe, the ECM drives the Azores high eastwards with a milder westerly flow establishing. Similar to this morning.

One thing I've noticed in the last 2 days is something which is a sign that spring is almost here and it's to do with the cloud. Obviously there was an occluded front which moved through late last night/early this morning which brought some cloud and some snow showers in the West but this cleared later in the morning and it became mostly clear and sunny for a while like yesterday morning was before a lot of fair weather cloud built up in the afternoon which then dissolved again on both evenings. That's a classic sign of spring where the heat from the sun is able to start generating convection as some areas become warmer than others which leads to rising air and clouds forming. In a month or twos time the air and ground would be warmer which would allow stronger convection to occur and therefore showers would become more widespread (as is normal in spring). On the other hand, a month ago, this set up would probably be producing clear skies all through the day. Anyway, today's Max was 5.5C. Now it's down to 2.6C. With it expected to be completely clear all night tonight unlike last night when more cloud came down from the Northwest, I think it could be colder than the -3.3C I recorded last night. One thing I have noticed is that here there has not been one night all winter where it has been completely clear and calm all night. The lowest I have recorded was in January on the Friday night before the Saturday when snow came in from the west. That night it was -4.7C but I remember even the evening before that the temperature kept going up and down until about 11pm as the breeze picked up and died down. And even last night which I think was the second coldest I've had this winter, had more cloud during the second half of the night. Therefore tonight could be the first completely clear and calm night of the whole winter so it could end up being the coldest. Edit: wow that's the longest post I've written by some way

Although you can't ignore the ECM this morning, the overall picture still looks to me like a good period of cool/cold weather into March, with arctic air generally in the mix to varying degrees.

A total MJO collapse starting in just 4 days time is ECM's idea at the moment so it's no surprise to see way more momentum being added upstream when compared to GFS in particular. UKME is less bullish than ECM which mitigates the effect. The move toward phase 6 again is a bit odd though. I wonder if ECM is overreacting to interference from the Indian Ocean... or perhaps the cooling of the far-eastern Pacific in some way. Or a bit of both! Either that or the cold first half of March anticipated to some extent or other by a great many experts in the field is dead in the water - what a thought that is! I wouldn't mind higher temperatures - but the trouble is, they'd probably tend to come with a lot of cloud and rainy days due to the fact that such strong upstream westerlies are needed to get out of the cold pattern in the first place. GEFS and the GFS 06z are well in line with what I have been thinking we'll have to put up with (or for snow lovers, if we get [very in the south] lucky, enjoy).

The ecm 10-15 anomaly from last night and this morning is not a million miles from NOAA. There has been no significant pattern change upstream. The 10-15 is quite similar to the T240 chart but with a more sharply defined Atlantic ridge/trough thus a touch more meridional.

00z ECM op. run looks very different to the ensemble mean,and is likely an outlier with those Euro heights. op run..ens.mean

Still look on the bright side. I was down at the lake yesterday on a terrific springlike morning and the Robins were singing away, the Great Tits cavorting and I even saw three Nuthatches. Fascinating to watch them nip up trees. And Sidney was very skittish at the thought of Spring.

Probably the most significant observation of this morning's ecm run is the virtual lack of any precipitation of any kind in the ten days. The colder regime gives way to a more Atlantic influenced one and thus nearer average temps post Tuesday.

I dont want to quote the whole post as it would take up to much room....but the post by new nember ...bring back 1962-63....was the best ive read all winter.....please post more.

Well, take the two 12z clusters here (to illustrate where EC goes directly beyond the T+240 DET frames cited by others earlier on the thread)... a general rinse-repeat of forecast shenanigans this weekend. And more could follow.

The snow issue is peripheral as far as I'm concerned. The key point of interest here is the colder look into early March: anyone seeing 'mildness' stamped over output is misreading it. I think one issue here is perhaps folk looking solely at EC DET runs, which need proper examination alongside the ensembles. Note for example the 12z DET for Reading... then compare with the EC parallel (9km) run, which is verifying highest of any model. Note the EC-P deterministic running virtually through ENS median (contra operational 16k model). Clear signal for turning chillier again later next week. As for snow, well, I'll let others stress about that...!

It's been a confusing day for mid-term prospects. The ECM op remarkably consistent in flattening the pattern somewhat. But you cannot rule out another Arctic blast with anomaly charts like this: To me this shouts out Northerly, Northerly, Northerly - and if I'm wrong, North-easterly!

GFS and Hi Res models picked up these showers. Which turned into this Which turned into this Lending support to what others have been saying re getting the cold in first then see what happens.

As much as I like wild and changeable weather, today was the perfect opposite and much needed, a long sit in the sunny garden painting a birthday card for my dear old Dad, listening to the sound of blackbirds and lawnmowers, (ours still had frost until late morning so I didn't consider mowing although it needs it), spent all day with a woolly hat on and a thick jumper but no coat, and then great excitement at seeing clear skies and the thermometer dropping like a stone again. I am very sad that a day like this is such a rarity, and am not looking forward to whatever kind of mush is round the corner, and I suppose hoping for proper winter is combining with memories of fantastic snowy winters of our youth to keep me cheerful. Here's a pic of our igloo that we made and slept in years ago, it was snug:

Shower gave a dusting

Not sure I understand that... If you're saying don't trust anything beyond 4 days, the next 4 days aren't zonal are they?

I think we can now well and truly say that WINTER IS OVER! I said it back in November and got a right ticking off.

Yes decent agreement to T120hrs showing something of a warm up moving in early next week from the Azores ridging,this showing on the 00z ens. likely to bring some cloud and some dampness with it .A shame really as we lose this lovely crisp and clear Arctic air although the above graph shows that below average temps return later as we see further colder incursions from the north west.

With the chaotic state of the models as the ever-changing MJO and strat. signals feed in, it seems we can't depend on anything in particular with respect to next week onward. Anyone else noticed how Monday's cold easterly has sneaked away as the LP out west arrives a bit sooner? I think the period beyond that is highly open to question, as trough disruption to the NW is likely, with further sliding lows, but the models often have a lot of trouble picking up exactly when and where such will take place. GFS 12z highlights the risk that a sliding trough could end up in a place that draws mild air our way instead of cold. We even see a cold pool to our east warm-out in-situ ahead of that, which is a reminder of the time of year and lack of deep cold pooling to resist the solar insolation. The MJO is in theory hitting peak amplitude in phase 7 today and this is where it's common to see some more notable model errors as they try to figure out how well the wave/system will hold together as it progresses further east. Best outcome would of course be GEFS for the next few days. This is probably where the added amplification next week - with better trough disruption and room for a Scandi and/or Icelandic/Greenland high - is coming from.

interesting chart, looks familiar?... not a million miles away from what we are expecting, this chart from today in 1955 produced a real dumping so im told..

Annoys me so much, we are entering March, spring time, stronger sun time, this is where model and temperatures shown begin to vary massively compared to what actually happens due to the sun playing a huge huge factor now... We are in a a traditional early spring regime now, cold at night warmer by day in any sun.. Yet people are still trying to chase the cold.. GIVE UP!! Soon the coldies will vanish and we can start chasing top temps and thunderstorms BRING IT ON Had we actually had a proper winter... Then I wouldn't be saying the above. It's almost like a really really bad relationship where one person is trying desperately to hold onto the one they love.. Yet the other is saying F off Just for fun from the met: Issued at: 1026 on Wed 24 Feb 2016 Valid from: 2000 on Wed 24 Feb 2016 Valid to: 0900 on Thu 25 Feb 2016 Temperatures will fall below freezing on Wednesday night, with a risk of scattered wintry showers falling on sub-zero surfaces. This leads to a risk of icy patches on untreated roads and pavements on Thursday morning. In addition, light snow showers may give a temporary dusting of snow away from coasts. Please be aware of the risk of some locally difficult driving conditions, and some low level travel disruption. Clear spells will allow road and pavement temperatures to fall below freezing on Wednesday night. Wintry showers are expected to affect coastal parts of SW England and western Wales. Further, mainly light, showers will move southeast across NW England, the Midlands and parts of central England overnight. Where these showers fall on sub-zero surfaces there is a risk of ice.

Hmmm ... as others have alluded, the ECM mean still gives a chance of something colder developing ala GFS - main trough to our NE, perhaps stronger heights to our west that the op suggests - can't write off a further shot of cold at the end of next week yet. But it's decidedly dodgy. Looking at the latest GEFS, the consensus is certainly to keep on the colder side - and quite confident of a flake or two in the capital before the weekend is out: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=306&y=141&ville=Londres Yes, same on extended ECM ensembles - op is an outlier, most runs bring back the chilly weather (rather than "cold") by D9 and keep it that way till the end:

If only a month or so earlier this place would be in melt down stiff easterly breeze and -12 heading across europe what a awful winter grrr

Simple word to explain the models cold but bone dry unless you live in Scotland or the far east coast might get a shower but even that looks unlikely. A true wishbone effect going on. All that talk of get the cold in and the snow will follow is just a myth. As the current setup demonstrates although with the clear skies some very harsh and hopefully air frosts are on offer so not all bad. It's like mission impossible for low level snow this winter. The PV has been utterly dominate and set up two base camps in Greenland and the US East coast. Let's hope for better next winter.

Colder than average in March would be fine IF we could have weather like today/last night for an extended period (sunny and calm by day, frosty at night). I'd quite happily take that over any nasty slush. If we get a blizzard here in the South with ice days fine, but that's very unlikely so I'd rather it stayed mainly dry and the chill will slow down plants breaking dormancy too early after the extremely mild 'winter' we've just endured.

Looking pretty dry chilly to start then signs of milder air in the ecm very welcome. be glad to see the back of this winter. pv certainly been a major factor in the past few years. if there's strong pv next winter I'd call for another repeat of the last few. good sign seeing the glosea model and ec long range doing good job of long range forecasting, so rubbish winter but it means that in such a messy winter with many background signals like the strong El Niño these models preformed exceptional so be worth putting faith in them for future ideas for long range. anyway enjoy the sunshine and crisp conditions and knockers daffs he's back from his winter hibernation hopefully he can start to show some spring warmth and sunshine.

Nearly three years since there was a widespread snowfall and for some Southerners getting on for six years without a snowflake. Surely the islands at our latitude should be doing better than this.

1c here, looked out the window and it's cloudy and the ground is wet! Radar shows showers passing through about an hour ago. It was -1.3c when I went to bed and obviously negative dew points and 850's around -7c when the showers came through, should have been snow but assuming it just rained with the wet ground!! How..!!??

Tonights fax charts leave me with that if only the 850's to the e/ne were a bit colder feeling. Or why didn't this set up appear a few weeks ago? I hope no ones got a trip planned to Iberia as it looks decidedly cold. In terms of the UK a trough shown at T120hrs, that weak occlusion could give something wintry and also the trough but we're back in marginal territory again, earlier some showers possible across the south and se. I'm beginning to detest the term "marginal"! Very hard to know whether anything white will fall from the sky. Going by the GFS dew points you'd think yes but I'm not very trusting of those. Its a wait and see. Hopefully the models can find another couple of degrees colder 850's in the coming days.

Here is a couple of pictures of the northern lights which i saw in Lapland on Monday evening.

Light dusting here this morning with a hard frost. Nice snow shower just moved through with big fat flakes. Tried to catch them on the phone, not great quality.

Sidney looks like he's had a good Winter. No weight loss there.

It's increasingly looking like this weekend may be the final chance of seeing flakes of some sort for many, as it just isn't working out with regards northern blocking thereafter. The ECM is particularly poor in that respect as it not only flattens out the pattern between D6-D10, but it removes deep cold from our NE too so any temporary NEly further down the line would be chilly and nothing else. In fact, the spring brigade may find the run very welcoming, as I can foresee temperatures reaching the teens with sunny spells on the east coast. The GFS attempts to build a stronger high to our West, but still not in the category of "northern blocking", so any temporary northerly is unlikely to be cold enough for snow away from the north. Still, something may develop for Sunday I feel, with a good easterly in reasonably cold uppers.

I have never seen and felt things so springlike at this time of year! Ok temperatures aren't in the teens but the strength in the sun is really starting to feel noticeable now. Alex deakin emphasised this tonight. And with so many early daffodils and lots of trees here beginning to bud and the smell of freshly cut grass beginning to emerge, my spirits have really been lifted. Best 'cold' spell of the winter. More please. :).

We'll be shivering in brisk westerly and Northwesterly winds come May, wondering what the hell we all did to jaffa cakes off the weather Gods.

So what's new with tonight's anomalies. In the 6-10 range not a lot. The upstream pattern that has been pretty static remains namely Aleutian low, ridging western N. America into the Pole and old faithful N. Canada. With HP pushing north mid Atlantic and the trough just to the east of the UK the airflow over the uk is from the NW, sourced N. Canada, so periods of unsettled weather, wintry at time, with temps generally a little below average. In the 10-15 range there are some differences. The GEFS is not that much different but the ecm strengthens the Atlantic HP into Greenland, and intensifies the trough over the UK resulting in the flow veering a little but still nw possibly increasing the chances of dragging some colder air south. NOAA would not appear to be adverse to this idea but really takes up a position between the two. Conclusion. No compelling reason to deviate from the scenario of periods of unsettled weather, wintry at times with possible some brief transient snow events, but interspersed with drier spells and actually quite pleasant. Temps varying a bit but generally a little below average.

Excellent well balanced post... BB , i see once the European mainland has a covering of snow as predicted then the cold pool will grow.. regardless of March approaching... Cohen , i think has been about 100% correct with his strat foresasts in the past 3 months , and his latest blog was like liquid gold to read for us in our part of the world... 4 to 6 weeks of below average... strat --- trop coupling , and the prediction the cold air mass over eastern russia will begin to advect west... . Get that anywhere near us in march and spring is definately gonna be late. Clearly an indication of reversal. Singularity has said on a few occasions the models will struggle with the -AO and MJO... i couldnt agree more with him , and as with you i`m thinking along the lines of the short /medium term ( a week to 10 days) Plus have you noticed how the EL-Nino is more in a modiki mode lately . It is going to be great fun watching how this pans out... and to the guys that did the winter forecast for Netweather.. your back laoded winter is a little later than planned , but its comming