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Nice trend on EC week 3 to 4, taking mean trough to the north and eastwards. Not unexpected although still with a +AO/+nao signature but more of a more west or NW flow. Scope for northerlies given some amplification which the model won't pick up at that range. Let the trend be your friend.

I don't have much input, but I'd like to share this GIF on behalf of nearly everyone right now.

Au contraire my friend au contraire. I think I'm starting to see signs of a shift in emphasis with both the latter stages of the GFS and to a slightly lesser extent the ECM in recent runs. Tell tale signs of the jet becoming more sinuous and ridges protruding to higher latitudes than they have for some time. Ensemble means at 10+ days out- USELESS. 0z GFS more amplified into early -mid FI than it has been for a long time. Atlantic and Siberian ridging evident here Also, when did the CFS become so savvy on here? Once upon a time it was pretty savagely slated Now it's seemingly the pinnacle of bold predictions up to 4 weeks into the future.

I bring good news for coldies, the Gfs 00z shows colder weather on the way, what a pleasure it is to post charts which are not very mild muck for a change!

yes nick, yet another myth. actually santa collects data from all over the world in a single night on xmas eve so the model runs are at their most accurate. thats true that is..

Well this looks much better from the Gfs 12z op run with an increasingly wintry spell through the new year, the NH profile is a vast improvement on the current very mild dross...as far as i'm concerned if it's colder with a higher risk of snow....BRING IT ON!

OMG call a COBRA meeting, frost and ice warning! Both the GFS and ECM have that deep low in the west Atlantic around T240hrs, so I think this is now looking like the first chance to rid ourselves of this vile horrible mild muck. That needs to hold back and help drive some WAA north, that low still looks a bit too rounded for my liking so it might take two chances. Hopefully the MJO can work its magic and help us get over the finishing line.

Yep, only a matter of time before the annual "It's Christmas so the models can't be trusted" line is wheeled out!

The ECM is a bit more festive with some colder air slipping se on Christmas Day, a frosty night to follow and a crisp Boxing Day. The ECM has brought back that deeper upstream low, its a shame that phases with the low to the sw but its pattern is similar to the GFS. Given the expected changes in the Pacific next week things might yet turn out a bit more favourable for some colder conditions.

Indeed. The fact that the NHC ask for six hourly radiosonde data when a major hurricane threatens the CONUS lends support that they may add value in extreme circumstances. Anybody worrying about a lack of data at 18Z, take a look at what was collected by ECMWF at that timeframe yesterday. http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/monitoring/coverage/dcover!synop-ship!18!pop!od!mixed!w_coverage!latest!/ For example, far more aircraft obs at 18Z than at 12Z.

All GFS runs are at the same resolution as far as I'm aware. Not sure where this nugget of info has come from.

Why?

Interesting, split vortex showing now at the end of FI on the 18z WAA driven right to the pole. POW!, right in the kisser

When did this take place? I know the radiosonde data is only in the 00Z and 12Z but no knowledge of a different resolution between GFS runs.

Well, the 00z ECMWF det. continues to disappoint wrt to building the Euro ridge north, though the EPS mean at t+240 keen on it, the EPS control in the extended range even punches this ridge to the pole via Svalbard around day 11 - which would surely disturb the PV at bit. In the more immediate future, rainfall piling up across western areas this weekend is of some concern again. A slow moving frontal boundary with ripples/wave developing along it combined with a very mild/humid southwesterly flow could bring some large totals, though unlikely anything on the scale that weekend earlier this month. Rainfall accumulations from GFS maybe on the conservative side, as they often are, Met Office warnings suggest twice this much over exposed areas

Of course it's simple and effective and everyone has that option but I'm afraid you have one up on me because I'm not aware of anyone trolling the MOD thread. Posting posts which highlight mild is hardly trolling particular as this mild spell is interesting from a meteorological viewpoint however unpalatable it may be for many. In any case those who find this annoying can always redress the balance by throwing in a few constructive posts themselves.

To whoever wanted the latest GLOSEA modelling..... Classic -NAO (at least getting towards-higher heights to S and SW than I would like) with troughing to the east. Ignore temperature plots when it comes to UK LRF modelling- unless you happen to live on a continental land mass they appear to be pretty useless. Upper air temps at or slightly below average but again don't read too much into these.... Aside from that, brilliant 18z GFS FI with a nice scandi high and further attacks of the vortex. We'd eventually go very cold from there.....

Yet again certain posters over in MOD posting really long posts about how mild it's going to be. Boring boring boring. Yes we know. No need to keep repeating it.

Right now, Pm incursions would be a welcome change from this vile mild mush! : ) I bet your woodshed that coldies (the majority on here) will not be denied spells of significant wintry weather through jan/feb and March.

Christmas day night looks pretty chilly on the ECM with minus 6 for parts of Scotland where it's also showing lying snow into Boxing Day with temps remaining sub zero, overnight into Boxing Day temps around 0c or just below for other northern areas and further south low single figures. A little festive cheer from the ECM although being a week away the detail will change again....

Also shows main troughing heading East... All very GLOSEA like in the final couple of frames with pressure starting to rise in general out West.

I will add, however, that the signal from the previous update was for considerably cooler conditions than what we're experiencing now (not hard, I know). 850s generally below zero going into the new year, but remaining unsettled. Update to come overnight though so we'll see where it heads.

Any positive spin for coldies is welcomed since those of us in the southern half of the UK are buried in very mild muck and Saharan sand..Lol. :-)

With a minimum of 9.0C and maximum of 13.8C, yesterday beat the daily record by 0.6C (provisionally). The minimum today is 11.5C (0.1C below the record mean!), while maxima look like reaching the mid 14s, so an increase on tomorrows update to 9.5C looks likely. After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at: 9.7C to the 18th (12.4: +8.0) [Record High: 11.8C] 9.8C to the 19th (12.5: +8.2) [Record High: 11.6C] 9.9C to the 20th (10.6: +6.9) [Record High: 11.1C] 9.9C to the 21st (10.9: +6.7) [Record High: 11.4C] 10.0C to the 22nd (10.6: +6.1) [Record High: 11.6C] 9.9C to the 23rd (8.3: +3.6) 9.9C to the 24th (9.1: +4.4) 9.9C to the 25th (10.3: +5.8] [Record High: 10.4C] 9.8C to the 26th (7.1: +2.8] While a new daily record today is almost certain, the maximum today needs just 14.4C to get the daily average rounded up to 13.0C, to make it the first 13.0C+ December day on record. Taking the forecast to the 22nd to be reliable, the final 9 days of the month would have to average: 6.7C to reach 9.0C 3.6C to reach the current record of 8.1C -8.4C to reach the 81-10 average of 4.6C

Hi All, I only drop by periodically to see what you're all chatting about during the extreme ends of our climate here, i.e. high summer and mid-winter. This spell of weather is really terrible isn't it. Give me crisp clear blue skies and frost or snow on the ground any day of the week over grey, wet and mild but not having to "wear a coat"??? It's plenty warm enough in the pub when you get there. The only upsides for me are; thinking of the execs at the big energy companies sitting in their boardroom looking out the windows as we all keep our heating turned off. And there's a tiny bit of "grumpy old man" schaudenfreude for me seeing shots of packed high streets with cheap christmas decorations and rain hammering it down. I love the thought of frost and snow at Christmas, but living in the south east it just never happens, despite how much the christmas TV adverts convince everyone otherwise. I fee like writing a john cooper clarke poem about the realities of christmas in England as an antidote to the unrealistic adverts on tv.......plastic santas hanging outside the bookies in Southall high street......traffic jams outside argos......nan's got the heating on again.......mrs browns boys on the telly........it's p*ssing down Nick

All this talk about how we need to get used to this kind of winter now is very similar to discussions that took place on this forum during the winter of 2007/2008... ...need I go on?

Quite. If it smells like a dog, barks like a dog and growls like a dog, it is a dog. The MJO, Kelvin Wave and other forms of intraseasonal tropical modes share measured parameters. The most useful is upper level velocity potential. The only thing that differentiates Kelvin Waves from the MJO is the speed, with Kelvin Waves showing much faster propagation. Taking Mike Ventrice's plot: He states Kelvin wave projection for next week. Beyond that, the week 2 forecast shows a classical signature of +ve velocity potential around 120E and negative velocity potential around the Dateline. That would imply a strong convective anomaly around the Dateline consistent with tropical forcing centred in what would equate to MJO phases 7 and 8. The CFS forecast shows more MJO component, and low level forcing becoming sustained just east of 180 degrees. Note the similarity to September and October in terms of where positive and negative velocity potential anomalies lie. That strongly suggests that the atmospheric forcing is becoming solely Central and East Pacific with positive velocity potential through the Maritime Continent. Whether this is the MJO, Kelvin Wave or other tropical mode is somewhat irrelevant. It is the reinforcing of an El Nino atmospheric pattern and lack of destructive interference from Indian Ocean convection that is key. The really crucial point here is that tropical forcing is getting into a position where angular momentum will be raised and in doing so, the hemispheric circulation will become more amplified. We continue to see this with excellent and eye taking intra and inter model run consistency. What that tells me is the Arctic Oscillation is beginning to loosen its grip, and tropical convective activity, in all its forms, is responding. Composites for high angular momentum velocity potential for January are consistent with an MJO phase 7 and 8 type solution. Note the relative positioning of positive and negative velocity potential. Now, phases 7 and 8 > Arguably, early / middle of January looking phase 7ish. But, this will be transposed across a pattern that is thus far robustly +AO, so there will be inevitably be a degree of adjustment that we need to make (turning around the super tanker).

There is quite a change of emphasis on the ECM at T+240 ish - for days on end the deterministic has been right at the top of the ensemble spread - tonight it swings to being a massive cold outlier. To be looked at with suspicion until more support appears. AM 18th edit - the embedded link automatically updates and now has the latest run. Saved image for last night here... http://i.imgur.com/TPRpHR6.png

The weather will always balance out, it's a fact! In the simplest of terms, the replacement of Low pressure to High pressure is inevitable at some point. Even if that just means a cold inversion that's certainly a change id welcome, but of course we can do a lot better...... lol

Happy stormy new year, massively different to the last run but the 12z GFS kills the Euro high into January, which is what the ECM wants to do, be much happier if/when such a scenario gets into the reliable...

Agreed! Was about to add onto my post that I think most will welcome a change from the dross at the moment. What was showing on the latest run is fairly consistent with the previous run, perhaps more unsettled. A long way to go and a lot of mild to get through first though.

I know the world is warming but I'm not convinced it's having a large impact here, we've always had bonkers weather and will continue to do so, our location is the reason why. I've just had a quick flick through a page on the booty weather site (brilliant for historical weather stuff) and taking winter 1934/35 as an example, it was very mild, up until 2013/14 it ranked 9th warmest since 1659 - it was followed by widespread snow on 16th/17th MAY! Not just a few flakes, or the odd dusting, but from Scotland all the way down to Tiverton in Devon, proper snow cover - 11cm in Tiverton, 15cm in the Yorkshire Dales, 30cm in Leeds, even the Scilly Isles had falling snow. A warming world is supposed to produce more extremes of weather but to my untrained eye, it seems we've always had contrary, often extreme weather here. Check out the historical stuff here http://booty.org.uk/booty.weather/climate/1900_1949.htm

ECM's shown us the risk that we wind up at the mercy of the Atlantic trough while the Sceuro high gets its act together. I remember in Nov 2009 how we found ourselves on the eastern flank of storm after storm while the blocking highs developed to the E and then NE. A similar path, with similar outcomes as that blocking drives wave breaks on the vortex, seems an entirely reasonable expectation to me at the moment. Nov 2009 was the wettest month I've recorded in the past two decades, so it's obviously not at all desirable unless you enjoy wet and wild weather to the extreme (which presumably excludes large parts of the NW for the foreseeable!). The GFS option has the wet and wild conditions out in the Atlantic while we stay largely high and dry - let's hope we can have the pattern set up closer to that than the ECM outcome. Even if we didn't get a pre-SSW (hopefully SSW) easterly, that would have the potential to bring a cooler, more seasonal feel to the weather. I find the GloSea5 update encouraging for a change at some point Jan-Feb, though clearly a few too many ensemble members are holding on to the Euro high further through January than I'd ideally want to see. I know Feb can bring sustained cold, snowy conditions as extreme as Jan with the right setup, but I do tend to get fed up with living in fear of sunny spells during snowy spells at that time of year Anyway, the strength of the -ve NAO signal for the Feb-Apr period is stunning and implies a considerable hangover from the winter into spring. Perhaps Dec 2015 and March 2016 have traded places?

The Gfs 6z op run shows considerable moderation in the persistent very mild mushy pattern from next week onwards with some colder incursions of Pm air making inroads at times, especially across the north / northwest with occasional sleet and snow across northern hills and night frosts, there is some mild weather, I would be very misleading if I said otherwise but at least it's not relentless mild blowtorch conditions during christmas week and on towards and into the new year. It is a very unsettled run through high res so more concerns for renewed flooding across western / northwestern areas but looking into the new year, the 6z shows pressure rising strongly to the east and the T+384 chart left me feeling positive about a potential cold spell evolving during January 2016.

I doubt this December will ever be forgotten. It will be set as a mild benchmark much like December 2010 was for cold.

I thought this thread was to moan about the weather, not about each other. No one makes the weather so folk can only comment upon what the models are throwing out, if it's mild all the way, surely that's what the posts will be about? Tis the season to be jolly, peace on earth, good will to ALL men (and women) eh. Anyway moan over, it's the 17th of December, there's something soooo wrong when I can comfortably stand outside for a fag wearing a t-shirt. Even the wind is warm, it's bonkers!

To think we have lived through the 2nd coldest December on record and probably the mildest December on record. I lived through February 1986 and 1990 and later 1998 and that was a 8.4C contrast. This will be even larger if December record falls, at least 8.9C if correct. It could beat the February 1947/February 1990/98 contrast, January 1963/2007 contrast. They are the largest contrasts that anyone alive now could have lived through but there is a large interval between the two. December 2010 and 2015 is only 5 years.

To be honest I've seen enough today from the GLOSEA to be reasonably assured a major pattern change is on the way some time into the new year. It has replicated a Greenland high/Scandi trough scenario for the past 3 months- SOLID in its assertions. Put this together with the common consensus of a warming strat into Jan and I think that we can be as confident as we possibly can be that what we're beginning to see in the extended NWP are the foundations to an AO flip. Obviously, this may be ultimately proven false but with what is infront of me it's the only way I can call it at present if I was asked to make an educated judgement of post Christmas conditions. Reading between the lines of GPs posts (he can't say much on here) suggests a pretty similar tale. Interestingly he said that we may get warmer yet before any pattern change- likely that we may find ourselves under some impressive WAA just post Christmas....hinted at by the GEFS. All par for the course though,.

A very good post here on English Vineyards and their relationship with climate. http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2006/07/medieval-warmth-and-english-wine/ "Since 1977, a further 200 or so vineyards have opened (currently 400 and counting) and they cover a much more extensive area than the recorded medieval vineyards, extending out to Cornwall, and up to Lancashire and Yorkshire where the (currently) most northerly commercial vineyard sits. So with the sole exception of one ‘rather improbably’ located 12th Century Scottish vineyard (and strictly speaking that doesn’t count, it not being in England ‘n’ all…), English vineyards have almost certainly exceeded the extent of medieval cultivation. And I hear (from normally reliable sources) they are actually producing a pretty decent selection of white wines."

Am liking the ecm @ 192 hrs. Certainly different with deep cold not a million miles away esp for Northwestern parts. As I said a couple of days ago pattern changes can spring up out of the blue!! (Pardon the pun) ☺

Which would be a million times better than the blow torch SW'ly rubbish we have now, if it is correct then the Euro highs days are numbered.

I've seen the ECM monthly charts which go out to the 15th of January, it does look like this current pattern we're stuck in will be losing it's grip as we move into the start of January onwards, that's assuming the ECM monthly is going to be correct of course! But possibly some more milder weather to get through during December before we get there... We can hope!

Personally I'm loving this insanely mild weather. Yes it is very murky and gloomy and I can't remember the last time I saw the sun, but then tbh the days are so short and the sun so low in the sky that it's probably as good a time as ever for it to be constantly overcast (as long as we don't have yet another grey summer in 2016...) Pros for me: Fingers and toes not going numb when cycling to/from work (+ no ice to worry about) Can sit outside to eat my lunch outside without having to wear a coat Hasn't really been that wet and windy in most places so far (apart from Cumbria which seems to have been screwed over by all the rainfall). Certainly nowhere near as bad as 2013 yet.. Not having to put the heating on all the time Generally mostly harmless weather (apart from the areas affected by flooding) which you can still do most things outside without being bothered by the cold People who I feel sorry for: Those affected by the flooding European ski resorts, not looking great for snow so far and coming after 2014 which had a slow start as well. There hasn't been a mega season across all parts of the Alps for a few years and I think especially some of the lower resorts are going to find themselves struggling and going into decline in the next few years if this is a trend. Even spending huge amounts on snowmaking equipment is useless if temperatures are still too high! People I don't feel sorry for The energy companies starting to panic about winter profits. They never pass on savings to customers when commodity prices fall so screw them when the weather does customers a favour.

chinese whispers nick. fergie did clarify it a while back. as far as i remember, they are run at the same resolution and there is no "missing" data as such, the 06z and 18z are only "missing" the balloon data so they are run with the previous balloon data alongside the new info from other sources. they may be slightly less accurate but it is negligible.

Yep pretty much my thoughts too Singularity. There's little doubt now that some height building is likely to our east post Christmas unless all the model suites suddenly switch.It's then a case of how much amplification can we get. Already the GFS is toying with different amounts of ridging so the uncertainy will likely continue until we start to get closer and into the higher resolution part of the runs.Like you i would settle for a UK high while we wait hopefully for another attack on the pv from further wavebreaking. What we don't need is a poorly orientated Sceuro high prolonging this south westerly pattern,eating up part of January.

Thanks for responding (although I'd be interesting to see IDO's response). As I understand it, what you say is anecdotal and therefore not very scientific. It has been the subject of discussion before and I recall someone (was it Ian F - it might not have been someone quite so authoritative) saying that the 'pub run' label is utter nonsense and has no basis at all. I have always assumed that the pub run is so named not only because of alleged inaccuracy but also because it comes out round about chucking out time!

Won't it be funny when we're looking back in April and saying, "How could we have had all that snow in a winter that was above average?". We'll all have forgotten how warm December was by then. ^^ I think I might be going just a little bit crazy.

Merry Christmas!

Outlier or Trend setter... lol

At this present time I cannot see a proper wintry spell developing before the New Year, again as I stated a day or so ago whilst we get well above average heights acros a good part of Europe, what we fail to see is below average heights over southern Europe. GEFs anomalies Again the suggestion is a Euro/Scandi ridge with either a very mild SW flow or a chillier surface flow off the continent. Other solutions look unlikely at this juncture but of course one must off underestimate the ramifications of a strong mid-latitude ridge in future modelling as we head into January. But at this point the search for a clear signal to develop a cold easterly flow remains a little out of sight.