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A credible window for some amplification opening up in the 10 day timeframe, although the positioning of any subsequent blocking structure looks to be too far west to significantly influence Europe, and there are doubts as to whether this would be enough of a hit to dislodge the +AO regime, for now at least. Tendency in relative angular momentum showing a sharp injection of westerlies 40N due mainly to frictional torques and earth atmospheric momentum but also a hint of mountain torque. This is likely to be at the high end of recorded spikes in relative angular momentum for December. Net result is a poleward fluxing of westerly inertia or amplification. We see this in day 10 EPS and GEFS solutions, EPS in particular showing a deep trough carving right across North America and downstream ridge extending through the Canadian Maritime into the Arctic. The majority of solutions show a gradual relaxation in the trough as upstream amplification fades (as it can only do). Ideally, for a blocking structure to form, the amplification should deflect most of the flow to the south. This is possible still, despite what the models currently advertise. However, this block would be forming well west of Greenland and would retrogress if a true blocking structure. Therefore, Greenland and canonical -NAO looks unlikely, and the European profile still remains above / well above average. There is a risk of this amplification transferring through the Atlantic, but it may take another phase of amplification to fully dislodge the polar profile. However, in the longer term, the raising of angular momentum counts towards making the next period of amplification much more favourable for a switch in the NAO although once again, the risks will be a west based NAO.

I agree the talk of Daffs in December when the ecm is showing what is showing is totally irrelevant. Didn't stop you from posting it tho. Whatever next, certainly nothing relevant

The astronomical winter has officially started. Or perhaps “winter” is a better indication for today, as the weather is more akin to mid-autumn here in West-Europe. Over the past few days, a barrage of low pressure areas has moved into West-Europe, bringing lots of rain, wind and swaths of warm and humid air towards the continent. While this may seem boring at first, this type of dynamical weather does have a fascinating side, at least from a weather perspective. Here I will try to present a guide through the fascinations of the current weather, and also briefly go into the weather in the long term. Ridge of high pressure, but far from sunny weather After a wealth of low pressure systems crossing the UK, we are now in a period of relative calmness relatively speaking. This has all to do with a ridge located over the southwestern parts of Europe. Note that I use different charts than usual (this time from tropicaltidbits.com). GFS 12Z surface pressure (in black lines) and 500 hPa heights (in colours) initial conditions. Courtesy: Tropicaltidbits Looking at the surface, we can see a 1034 hPa high pressure area centered over France. Low pressure activity is located to the northwest and northeast of this system. In the upper levels, we can also see the same pattern, with a ridge (yellow colours pointing northward) located over France and troughs extending over the Atlantic and Scandinavia (blue colours pointing southward). And yet, we are experiencing far from sunny weather in the UK. Why is that the case? Heated battle between tropical and polar air The main reasons that the weather is (at the least) not that sunny is that the UK is located directly at the battle zone between two air masses. This can be seen beautifully from satellite imagery: Airmass satellite image of Europe. Courtesy: Eumetrain. The purple colours indicate polar air (indicated by PM), whereas the greenish colours denote tropical air (indicated by the abbreviation TM). At the border between the two competing air masses, there is a thick band of cloudiness. This band of cloudiness is indicative of the polar front, separating polar air from tropical air (denoted by the blue and red line). To the south of this band of cloudiness, tropical air is hurled into Europe to the northeast (see white arrow). One could imagine that having two very different air masses that close together serves as a perfect breeding ground for low pressure formation. This separating line (the polar front) has been located over the UK for a couple of days, explaining why we have seen so many low pressure areas crossing the UK. Another nice way to look at it is to check the potential wet bulb temperatures at 850 hPa (about 1500 m above sea level). That sounds rather complicated, but it is much easier if you assume it to be an indication of the air mass. Roughly speaking, higher values of theta-e indicate a more tropical air mass. See below: GFS 12Z surface pressure (in black lines) and 500 hPa heights (in colours) T+6. Courtesy: Meteociel Here again we can nicely see the separation between the tropical air over Western Europe (reddish colour/ high theta-e) flanked by two regions of polar air masses to the northwest over the Atlantic and northeast over Scandinavia (blue or purple colours/low theta-e). And finally at the borders between these two air masses we have the location of the polar front and perfect ingredients for development of low pressure areas. More of the same to come? Will we remain in the battle zone between polar and tropical air? Will unsettled weather continue to dominate the theme? Indications are strong that this will indeed be the case. As a first guide, we will take a look at the 8-14 day 500 hPa anomalies. NOAA 8-14 day 500 hPa heights (in green contours) and anomalies (broken contours) Courtesy: NOAA. The first thing that shows up is that the lines of equal height are still very close together at the 8-14 day range, often indicative of a westerly flow in our regions. Also, a negative height anomaly is present near Iceland. Often, troughing already exists at that location in winter, so a negative height anomaly indicates that troughing will be even stronger in that area. Most likely this will result in a stronger west-east flow (as the pressure difference between the north and the south is larger than average). Or, in other words, unsettled weather appears likely for the foreseeable future for the UK. Records to be broken? We could also take a different perspective, which sheds a new light on the weather to expect in the future. For example, by taking a look at the ensemble forecast for a certain place. In this case I take De Bilt, located in the centre of the Netherlands. ECMWF ensemble for De Bilt as of 00Z 01-12. The red line indicates the operational run whereas the grey shades stand for the spread (uncertainty). Courtesy: Weerplaza. For comparison, I have added a red line showing the average maximum temperature and the blue line roughly indicating the average minimum temperature for December. Things do not get much more tentative to record breaking temperatures as in this graph. For instance, for the next few days and in the weekend to come, the minimum temperature forecasted in Bilt is higher than the average maximum temperature (!) for that date. Mild appears to be an understatement here. Therefore, one could conclude that we are most likely to reside in tropical air for the time being. The lack of diurnal cycle (or in other words, the lack of difference between the day and night temperature) suggests it is going to be cloudy most of the time. Definitely not the most favourable outlook for winter weather. Even at longer ranges (say 8-14 days, the same period as the NOAA 8-14 day charts are given), indications are for warmer than average weather to persist. Combined with the stronger westerly flow leads me to believe that a very mild, rainy period is about to start (or even continue). Concluding note While winter has started, a glance at the weather map would make it feel more like autumn. In fact, the temperatures resemble October rather than December. So it seems likely we are bound for another period of unsettled, very mild weather. Though winter is there, it is still far, far away. Yet, there is still much interest to be found, as is hopefully proven in this post J.

Still the tendency by day 10 on 00z GFS and ECM ops for the Canadian ridge to have an increasing influence over the far NW Atlantic as it stretches east, though it all goes pear-shaped on GFS as it keeps low heights over Greenland. Looking at the northern hemisphere view on ECM, it suggests the trop polar vortex shifting over to Siberia/far NE Europe by day 10 and this opens the gates for poleward height rises over the N American side + there is a small rise over the pole too. The troposphere heights are invariably linked to the stratosphere, yesterday's ECM strat charts show the centre of the PV shifting from Greenland at t+24 towards Barents Sea and northern Siberia at day 10: This could, of course, not lead to anything nationwide cold-wise in the next few weeks, but is a signal persistently showing and is a good signal long term unless the models are leading us up the garden path!

This is more like it, the Ecm 12z shows a nationwide cold snap which is a big upgrade on last night's 12z if we are comparing like for like, I like what this run shows this evening.

It's often been difficult to find the light at the end of the tunnel in the last few days but maybe we're at least starting to find where the light switch is? As others have said, the position of the tropospheric polar vortex looks to be moving away from Greenland on the current output. ECM at 72 & 240hrs.. But it's not just the ECM, the GFS at the same timescales shows a similar movement. Of course the exact detail of what that brings down the line is yet to be determined, but it's got help stop the train of Atlantic lows and give us a better chance of something colder. Just a quick point, I know it's the nirvana for 'coldies', but why is there such an apparent desperation to find 'blocking' in the models? Even in the best of years that's a rare event, especially this early in the winter. If you're looking for snow, it's far more likely to come from a 2 or 3 day cold snap. It's worked for a lot of us north of the border already in Nov, all we need to see is it getting further south. OK, so you may not see drifts to the height of the hedgerows or snow on the ground for weeks but it'd be a start.

I mused last night about the Canadian ridge playing some role in perhaps changing wave lengths and positions as we head towards mid-month, and we see on the 12z GFS in FI and also hints of it happening at the end of the 12z ECMWF too. Yes, it's a long way off, but the extended EPS mean and control had been hinting over recent runs that the ridge anomaly would drift slowly NE toward Greenland and the far north Atlantic by the middle of the month ... which could lead to an arctic-sourced northerly. The Canadian ridge and southerly storms track over the U.S. keeping cold air from sinking south there is fairly typical El Nino climo for December over North America, as is the very strong polar vortex too with low heights to the north of the UK driving a strong westerly or southwesterly flow, which look likely to persist until mid-month at least. And although there are signs that the Canadian ridge may drift far enough northeast mid-month to perhaps allow the flow to turn northerly, any mid-Atlantic/S Greenland ridge, I would think, will be temporary, given the Polar Vortex will likely remain strong through much of December. However, past analogs suggest that a strong Polar Vortex from October through December often doesn't maintain its strength throughout winter. Indeed, using analogs of past strong El Ninos, using the Multivariante Enso Index (MEI) suggest a weaker polar vortex and increased blocking is more likely to occur in Jan-Feb. For the reanalysis plots below for Jan and Feb, I have featured 6 of the strongest El Nino years (not including 1998). Of course these charts don't take in account other drivers in those years which maybe different than early 2016, i.e. QBO and solar activity: Jan Feb This matches fairly well (with regards to the ridge near Greenland and southerly storm track) with the latest Canadian long-range model CanSIPS which gives the 500mb anomaly outlooks for January and February below: Jan Feb As you can see from the 500mb anomalies (red and blue) CanSIPS and reanalysis of the analog years, there is a correlation with the Canadian ridge migrating N and NE in Jan and Feb, the southerly storm track over U.S. and strong Aleutian low typical of El Nino, but also and increasing -NAO signature over Atlantic and Europe. Unfortunately, no winters repeat similar analog years, and there's the large warm anomalies in the Pacific plus the advanced snow cover in Siberia heading into this winter that may differ from those analog years, as well as the QBO and solar activity. So it's a waiting game to see if the Canadian ridge helps things down the line and also there is the potential pressure exerted on the PV from wave flux activity from the Aleutian low and Siberian high which may break it down in the long run. Certainly not cause for alarm as we start winter for coldies, though we may have to wait a few weeks for the next nationwide cold snap and perhaps into January for a sustained cold spell the way things are shaping up atm.

But again the seasonal norm is for high pressure to be over southern Europe, so a shallow positive anomaly will still mean strong heights in that region, the reason I highlight this again is the 850 and T2M anomalies suggest a more Euro/Scandi ridge rather than a blocking high to our north east and the jet pushing underneath it. You need to see those blue colours widespread over southern Europe to suggest unsettled conditions and hence the chance of an easterly flow for the UK. The same caveats apply when looking in other places, for example a weak positive anomaly over Greenland still overall represents low heights in that particular location.

I get the feeling that Coehn's updates are as manic as some posts in here so whilst I would never dismiss them I would also not have much faith in them.

Daffs out by Xmas hmm? Well the Ecm has negative uppers across Scotland and Northern Ireland for 9 out of the next 10 days. 8 out of the next 10 days across Northern England -4 uppers hugging the South Coast day 9/10

Yes the signal for any MLB or HLB that would drag in any cold polar air to our shores is very muted but the signal for some form of cold zonality is much stronger after mid month. As you say cold zonal flow generally has a southerly tracking jet so hopefully that will erode the Euro high but all so far out. Currently I would say the second half of December will be of more interest to those in the North and with some elevation than the South but this pattern is still developing and more changes likely. Mods. New site layout is a pain in that it doesn't give posting times, just x hours ago which isn't that useful.

ECM is actually a very good run once again days 9 and 10. Decent amplified ridging west of Greenland at day 10....following on from the 12z of yesterday.

Is it me, or since this upgrade happened this forum has gone quiet - or is it a lack of any cold signals in the next few days!! Anyway, we now have interest showing on the ECM and GEM , not way out in GFS FI!!

Rest of this week largely unsettled for England and Wales, some respite at times further into Scotland and Ireland, Temps average to colder than normal in spells up the North, milder than usual down South. Mild wet and windy for most parts of the UK at the weekend. Next week, a more settled picture at least on a couple of days nationwide resulting in a patchy frost in places and hopefully some much needed sunshine for a few of us. Never cold perhaps near average for most and possibly milder than normal again in the South during the latter part of the week. After a potentially troublesome Monday for folk in the South, Thanks to strong winds and prospects for further flooding rain, things will dry out for most of us nationwide as the week goes by. Beyond this, placing confidence in any surface conditions and corresponding surface features would be folly, which stands to reason. Whilst the default SW to NE Jet flow up above us in the atmosphere may well be a fair bet once more, I think an Atlantic driven Jet based set up with a higher incidence of NW'rly incursions is more likely than not. NO changes broadly speaking before D10 then but mid December from perhaps as early as the 12th is where I'll be focussing my thoughts about any potential major pattern change. Things to watch. fluctuating Pacific Jetstream activity and associated troughing and just how this in turn effects the US weather situation Where next week's developing HP cell positions itself over our part of Europe and how long it might hang around for Whether this in turn allows for upper High development in the Greenland region Stratosphere changes affecting the longer-term signal for the 2nd half of December and whether something more traditional might pop up just in time for Christmas Will tonight's ECM backup these thoughts of mine or will I be facing prison time for wrongful forecasting tendencies? Cheers all and do play nicely, whatever the weather.

Fresh thread as we roll into winter.. Not wanting to dredge up old news, but I just need to touch on some of the posts last night. In hindsight, I think we took the wrong decision to let that part of the discussion run last night, as to be honest some of what was said was out of line, outside the forum guidelines and off topic. Everyone is welcome to post in here, so long as they post about the models. Long posts, short posts, posts with charts, posts without. Experts, beginners, whoever. We need to all remember that, and even if some posts aren't of interest to some, they are to others, and that's a strength of this community. Sniping at and even taking the mick out of people just because they have a different style or outlook isn't a good look and lets be honest doesn't reflect well either on individuals, or our community as a whole. But anyway, on with the models. Please don't discuss the above in here now, it's time to move on and also we need to keep this forum on topcic. If you have feedback on the layout of the forums or anything else please use the feedback forum, and if you wish to discuss this further please feel free to pm me. Paul

Surely this looks nice to some extent? Taken by me in December 2010

yes Vizzy , the opportunity exists on the 6z with a more favourable jet

The threat of one storm seems to have lifted over the weekend with the low tracking to the north but a perturbation does nip across southern Scotland Saturday evening bringing rain and briefly strong winds to northern England gusting around 60kts. The rest of the run isn't particularly noteworthy except perhaps for a south easterly plunge dragging warm air into England. The second batch of dafs will be out by Xmas at this rate. Charts weatherbell

Scores are now ready for update Monthly As previously mentioned this was Roger J smith, getting it spot on. Feb1991blizzard was 2nd 0.2c out, with Timmytour and AtlanticFlamethrower both 0.3c Seasonal Gael_Force kept the lead from last month, with Roger J Smith up to 2nd, and Stationary Front 3rd. Overall The overall winner was BornFromTheVoid with Weather26 in 2nd and DAVID SNOW 3rd. Thanks to all who competed during the past year. Nov 2015 CET.xlsx Nov 2015 CET.pdf The figures are shown here as normal, note that the Excel file is now smaller and is in the newer Excel 2007 format. Any problems with the scores please let me know.

Minimum today of 9.2C, while maxima look like being in the mid 12s, so an increase to 10.1C is likely on tomorrows update. After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at 10.6C to the 3rd (11.7: +5.7) [Record High: 12.2C] 10.1C to the 4th (8.6: +2.5) 10.2C to the 5th (10.8: +4.7) 10.6C to the 6th (12.2: +7.2) [Record High: 12.3C] 10.1C to the 7th (7.1: +2.3) 9.7C to the 8th (7.2: +2.8] 9.4C to the 9th (7.3: +2.8) 9.4C to the 10th (8.9: +4.6) 9.6C to the 11th (11.5: +7.3) Another very mild start on the cards. Only 5 previous Decembers managed to average above 9C to the 10th, the most recent being 2000.

The 00z extended EPS control run shows the ridge over far NE Canada/Labrador by day 10 moving out into the far north Atlantic as a transient ridge that slides E/SE toward the UK, but it would at least allow enough amplification for a cold northerly/toppler. Though with the trop PV reforming over Nern Canada and Greenland. Even the extended EPS H500 mean towards day 15 increases the -ve height anomaly over the UK and south into Europe to replace the Euro +ve height anomaly. But as GP points out, a block looks unlikely to form far eough east over the N Atlantic/S Greenland.

Streuth negative 850mb temps in December, whatever next. All totally irrelevant of course as the main priority at the moment is total rainfall and the possibility of severe gales.

just lost a post ,but just waiting for some eye candy ,certainly not boring and just a hint from tonights gfs run of something a little cooler ,long way out but interesting patience is the key gang ,let's hope this post arrives in the right place ,cheers .

Signs of a change now appearing days 9&10 ECM....things changing upstream and Euro high anomaly would be on borrowed time from this point... All aboard the train to the mid month change??

Just scroll your curser over the time last post made and it will show the time of posting.

ECM really latching on to those Canadian height rises now.

annoying forum changes, i mean what for? was fine before, and how do you change username?

And yet July last year you were saying this for a wonderful Autumn. " have a gut feeling that we might get a 2010-style autumn this year, which I certainly wouldn't mind at all. A warm and settled September, followed by a cool, foggy and frosty October and a cold, snowy November all in one is the perfect mix for a wonderful autumn." Strange talk from someone who says they hate cold and snow. Frosty October, a snowy cold November?

And yet July last year you were saying this for a wonderful Autumn. " have a gut feeling that we might get a 2010-style autumn this year, which I certainly wouldn't mind at all. A warm and settled September, followed by a cool, foggy and frosty October and a cold, snowy November all in one is the perfect mix for a wonderful autumn." Strange talk from someone who says they hate cold and snow. Frosty October, a snowy cold November?

For me the highlight of snow cover are the sunrises and sunsets, Thats the bonus of Winter. When the conditions are 'just right' that is sub zero temps, clear sky and snowcover i always head to the Scottish mountains for a early morning/late evening wonder. Its the best feeling in the world being up there away from it all watching the hills turn Yellow then deep Orange/Red, Every blink is a different picture with detail constantly coming and going. Will never bore me..

Interestingly the ECM control looks very cold and snowy as we hit mid December. If nothing else a block over Canada may well promote a more SE trajectory of the lows spinning towards the UK medium term.Hopefully starting the demise of that horrid Euro high!

The fact that many of the well known natural climate cycles have been identified by proponents of AGW shows the bolded part to be incorrect. It is more likely that natural cycles would have resulted in further cooling of the climate, and that we completely reversed that. Indeed, the climate had been cooling during the past 8,000 years or so, as part of our orbital cycle with reduced summer insolation in the Arctic. I agree with much of this. However many things are already monitored and already changing. Perhaps there is more going on than you realise? Given the now weekly attacks on climate scientists, the ridiculous claims of global grand conspiracies, the tendency to put up old think tank representatives, politicians, journalists and activists on conservative media outlets in place of actual climate scientists, much of the mainstream media seems disproportionately against climate science to me. Of course, media outlets get things wrong, and quite often, but it seems more common that these mistakes downplay rather than play up the risks of climate change Anyway, ignoring the fact that challenging, refinements and debunking of published science is usually done through the peer review system, could you give some examples of some of the great debunking of climate science done through the internet? Keeping in mind the utility of oil funded blogs and the fact that blogs and message boards can be found to promote anything from a flat Earth to lizard people running the world. The claim that anthropogenic climate change (with tens of thousands of published supporting studies, 97% agreement among experts, >99% agreement among climate studies, rooted in basic scientific principles and known for many decades, demonstrated through observations, modelling and paleo data) is unproven speculation mixed with outright nonsense sounds a lot to me like unproven speculation mixed with outright nonsense. A lot of rhetoric and speculation, but no substance there, RJS. I hope your response will reverse that.

My lamppost has arrived ready to be installed. Ready for snowatching

I remain skeptical that very much of the recent temperature increase is human caused. I do accept that warming has occurred, especially in subarctic regions, but the cause could be largely natural variability which proponents of AGW seem to think has stopped happening. Since it may be a blend of natural variability and human modification (and I think it is, perhaps on about a 3:1 ratio), the scientific inquiry should focus on what proportion we can reduce. My guess is that even if the economy of the developed world totally collapsed (which sometimes seems to be the goal of more radical proponents) there would be less than a 0.1 C deg decrease in global mean temperatures, so small an amount that it would be very difficult to separate it out from natural variations. So does this mean I think we should do nothing? Not really. I don't mind if governments help to accelerate the pace of technological change. There are various non-climate-related reasons to reduce dependence on oil, and it will eventually run out. I don't think this assistance should go so far as to alter substantially the taxes being paid or the subsidies being offered to green energy development. Moderation in all things applies here too. As to transfers of wealth to so-called vulnerable nations, this contains very large and dangerous assumptions about cause and effect as well as the reliability of those governments in terms of using the wealth transfers to help their own people. One suspects that the program would just be the realization of political objectives that cannot succeed at the ballot box in most democracies. I would favour a results-based direct intervention strategy. This would involve monitoring actual sea level rises and any other postulated impacts (on agriculture for example) and then intervening directly rather than handing over money to clients of the U.N. bureaucracy where a tiny collection of huts in the middle of nowhere is held to be equal to superpowers and great nations. There also needs to be more reasoned reporting of the climate issue. The internet has done a lot better than the mainstream media in debunking some of the hoarier tall tales of climate change. One gets tired of listening to non-experts breezing on about how they know we have wrecked the atmospheric circulation and that every passing weather event is the fault of people driving cars, etc etc, when almost all of it is unproven speculation mixed with outright nonsense. Just repeating over and over again that the science is settled and everyone agrees, when this is quite far from being true, is the recipe for brainwashing and unwise actions taken in pursuit of goals that nobody can possibly attain (or even measure, really). I believe there will be an alternative presentation made in Paris towards the end of the climate summit. This will be worthwhile for the media to attend and report on. Valid points are sure to be made and doubts cast on some of the more implausible aspects of the official position, which borders on some sort of mass delusion. Having said all that, they have finally broken the Al Gore jinx and managed to schedule one of these conferences during mild weather. This worries me too, I'm sure they will now make a big point of how the weather is warming up even more drastically during COP meetings than at any other time.

A decent F.I on this mornings 6z, shows that cold/snow is possible without major HLB. This I believe is the best possible outcome with the current strong PV.

Yes John the ens anomaly also has significant ridging NE Canada (not totally unexpected) which promotes the European HP to move a lttle north and perhaps bring a short period of more settled to the south. But looking at the ext anomalies out to T360 it reduces the ridging and re-emphasises the trough in the eastern Atlantic and a return to more unsettled weather for all but particularly the north. THe EC32 mean does exactly the same around that time frame which is why I said it's not totally unexpected. I can't find any reason for any major change unless there is a change of thinking vis the sustainability and orientation of the ridging NE Canada. I don't know why that top comment has come up just ignore

The blocking will be to far West for Europe to benefit cold so the cold will probably flood into the mid/West Atlantic.Roughly speaking.

Anyway the 500mb EC this morning but not GFS shows an interesting idea. IF it is correct is it the first indication of some kind of block developing way west, and possibly from the area Nick mentions, link below I hope! http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

From watching the GFS output over the past month at both the 500 mb and 30 hPa levels I gather that having a deep trough setting up over Siberia while a ridge to the east of there extends right up to the pole is an excellent setup for wave breaking capable of displacing the PV in ways that promote favourable blocking patterns wrt cold conditions in the UK. If that's correct then the ECM 12z det. run of today is an excellent one for some decent wave breaking from the Asian side. Meanwhile the GFS 12z det. undercuts that ridge in a week's time, resulting in an Arctic High that messes with the trop. vortex but doesn't provide that poleward flux that we're looking for to hit the strat. vortex. On the other hand, the messed up trop. vortex does allow for that Siberian trough and poleward ridge to the east combination to develop nicely at the end of the run, with decent strat. warming at 30 hpa for the time of year: Given how little faith I place in the GFS' handling of forcing on the AAM beyond maybe 5 days range, and the possibility that ECM may have the same issues (i.e. tending to go too negative with the AAM), I find the ECM run to be the most encouraging - so I hope it's right about the level wave amplification at that time. Again, all depending on my interpretation of the Siberian trough/poleward ridge combination being correct!

By 'muted' do you mean not really there? IMO, you may be right, or you may not; but I can see no real signal for any dramatic change??

Quite enjoying the mild temperatures as am saving on heating but would rather it was far sunnier. This gloom gets very depressing even tho' I kind of expect it at this time of year. A cold frosty sunny high world be lovely for a few weeks!!

Thanks Nick, looking at what you present , I am also encouraged by developing end run of the ECM run. I hope the UKMO will be showing this at day 10. This may be our best route to something colder for the middle of the month. Just presently amazing warmth in parts NW Europe. My daughter reported 12c just north of Stockholm just the other day and that at 7am in the morning and Southern Britain getting one of the mildest starts to winter ever. Warm air advection up the west coast of Greenland should enhance heights over Greenland and should help to shift the polar vortex to a location where a colder supply for most of Europe would I dare say would be welcome for most, especially us cold lovers, the hundreds of Christmas markets throughout Euroland and Blighty, we in the ski resorts and for a seasonal uplifting spirit for all. It will be a bit of a shock when it comes. C

the north and eastern europe into the freezer greenland very very cold. be interested to see where that high pressure in the atlantic ends up most likely flattened but nice to see the cold bulding to our north and east if this is correct of coarse. but the downside would be the temp differences between tm and pm air up and around greenland helping to keep low pressure systems energised.

gem nice for most of europe

GFS 00z is another no go but also very progressive in FI after showing some promise out to day 10. So the window of opportunity still exists but the limited evidence so far is till that any attempted blocking will be overrun. That may change as any potential blocking comes into hi res with any luck. The ensembles are just beginning to pick up on the pattern becoming more amplified around mid December for a time and most of them find a little chill here and there though no real sign of sustained blocking. P20 is probably the pick but even that only manages temporary MLB. Even so, they are cooler and hopefully we can squeeze at least some wintriness out of a more amplified pattern for as long as it lasts through and beyond mid month.

Not much snow today so here's some from yesterday in case we're all missing it.

on the old forum layout as I browsed each thread there was a button at the top of the page called go to the first unread post. is this button available on the new forum layout and if so where?

Basically, December is make or break for the winter, we need some decent wave activity or the winter will be dominated by the vortex and as such preclude any HLB from being able to form. Nothing new there what with the background drivers as they are, this is a very real possibility. But luckily! plenty of time left yet for us to head down an altogether different winter's path. Personally am still convinced we are going to see a big uptick in single wave activity from mid month onwards.

Visually it's a dogs breakfast at the moment with no clear division between anything quoted and reply. OK, there is a couple of lines but that's it. Also, my favourites marker apears to have gone awol (now leading to a peculiar error page) so presumably will have to be updated. Haven't tried tablet yet as I'm still hiding behind the sofa from all the white splodge. Far too hard on older eyes. Hopefully it will improve once the updates are complete.

Another shot of the old A9 North of Carrbridge taken in 1978. Yes that's a gritter on the right..