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Showing content with the highest reputation on 29/11/15 in all areas

  1. Heeeyyyyy! Don't forget us Irish! There's a good few of us here!!!! ;-) I'm just playing a minority card for likes! :-)
    9 points
  2. Hi all, Just wanted to take the time to thank you for putting together an excellent and fascinating read about the Stratosphere and its effects on us in the Troposphere. I am a long time weather enthusiast, but never fully understood the mechanisms behind what drives the Stratosphere and in turn our sensible weather at the surface. I came across your site from a Google search looking to learn more about the Stratosphere. I am glad it brought me here It seems most of you are from the UK. I am from the U.S. I'm not sure how often I will be posting but definitely wanted to take the time to just say thanks. Best, Frank
    7 points
  3. I didn't like the idea initially but I'm warming to it now. Makes it easier to refer to past storms when they're named, rather than the [insert date here] storm.
    6 points
  4. A very good 5 min video from Vox on how things developed and how they stand in Syria. Highlights how ridiculous, to the point of insanity, the idea that bombing Syria more will solve the problem is.
    4 points
  5. Jeremy Corbyn represents the .25 million Labour members who voted for him - that, as far as I can see, is his direct mandate. Labour MP's represent 9.3 million Labour voters. Corbyn has a mandate to lead the members of the Labour Party, .4 million people. Labour MP's have a mandate from 9.3 million people, and arguably a larger mandate, that of the electors of their constituencies..
    3 points
  6. To start next week I'm intending do a bit of reading to get to grips with how wave breaking can (via a SSW) ultimately lead to temperatures well above freezing even at high levels of the stratosphere and an anticyclonic circulation. - but I've already done a bit of thinking on this over the past couple of hours and I'm wondering how close - or far away - my thoughts are from the reality. Below, I've outlined the process that I'm imagining at this point in time: A wave break punches into the vortex, and is drawn up to higher levels of the stratosphere (assuming the vortex has net rising motion because without that how would it be rotating anticlockwise?), during which time the air within both cools and dries out (via mixing). This inevitably leads to bouyancy being no longer able to counter the mass imbalance and hence the wave descends. Being drier than it was before, warming occurs at closer to (or at) the adiabatic rate, resulting in a greater increase in temperature relative to the drop that occurred on the way up. This results in those balmy temperatures (I'm sure I've seen values of +20*C or so at the hear of a SSW), while the descending motion is responsible for the clockwise circulation. So to reiterate the question; how close, or far away, am I with this initial theory that's based largely on what I know of thermodynamics in the troposphere? Many thanks in advance for your response(s) - and I don't mind if it's not today as it is Sunday after all, which should to be honest be a day of chilling out - irrespective of the weather conditions!
    3 points
  7. Meant to say it, saw a fabulous falling meteor last night in clear cold skies out in West Dublin, left a trail like a halloween firework! Was at about 4 this morning while I was driving in work! Fairly stunning I must say!
    3 points
  8. Hey Frank, glad to have you aboard. Yes, most people in here are either from UK or USA. Personally, I am an "outlier" in that aspect, like a failed ensemble perturbation, being from Slovenia in central Europe. To Lorenzo: Here are some graphics from that NASA model, showing basically what those graphics are showing, a strengthening vortex, temperature and height wise in the core, but as the core of the vortex strengthens, so does the angular momentum of the vortex itself, which is evident on the stronger PNJ in the "surf zone". The NASA suite by Recretos :
    3 points
  9. guess which one lived in london the longest...
    2 points
  10. UKIP are exactly that, they cause division between friends, I've seen a few arguements between friends ukip based. Also cause division between other cultures and brits where a lot of people who support ukip just want all foreigners to go home. A lot of supporters have moved over from the BNP, even though technically UKIP is not a racist party. I'm pretty sure the Mao thing was a joke by the way, but keep taking it as real if you like.
    2 points
  11. Just some of the photos I mannaged to snap from our wonderful but very very windy visit to Donna nook. Was fantastic to see the seals in their own wild habitat and the babies are soooo cute haha
    2 points
  12. That could end up as a very long beard....
    2 points
  13. No-one has ever spoken about 'bombing the hell out of Syria' carpet bombing style so let's keep it factual. Targeted strikes has always been what's has been proposed and is what I support. The fact that we know locations to hit was discussed on BBC News this morning. As for creating more instability, given the current mess I don't think that's possible and yes I agree the west is not innocent in the creation of the mess however we have to deal with where we are now. Again I ask, if you don't agree with bombing, and I respect your right to hold that view, give me a workable alternative to eradicate the command and infrastructure of ISIS. It's no good disagreeing with one course of action if no one can come up with another viable option.
    2 points
  14. No-one can guarantee no civilian deaths especially as ISIS use them as shields. However as I said we are at war. Our civilians are being killed - we are all under threat. This is war people get killed, have been killed and are being killed You don't want to kill civilians in Syria - I understand that but you have no other way of destroying ISIS to stop other innocents being killed by them. To me that is saying the Syrian civilians are more important than the innocent victims of terrorism such as those in Paris. I can't accept that. No one who has come out against bombing ISIS has come up with a credible way of destroying the organisation. No one against action has come up with a way of decreasing the threat of ISIS coordinating attacks against me, my family, my friends or the family and friends of anyone else. If there is a credible alternative solution that will neutralise ISIS I will listen to it. However what I will not accept is my government not taking action to protect its citizens.
    2 points
  15. Yes, I take full responsibility for my views anyway. However... If you bomb and kill a civilian accidentally, it is clear your support for bombing killed a civilian. Those that support must take personal responsibility for civilian deaths. If ISIS can take that personal responsibility, then armchair soldiers in the UK can, or are the latter cowards by comparison? If you don't support bombing and a terrorist attack happens, there is no direct link. It is impossible to say whether the bombing would have stopped the terrorist attack. If someone can prove that bombing in Syria would definitely and without doubt avoided a civilian death in e.g. Paris, then there is a case. Good luck with that. Problem is, nobody with any sense is disagreeing with the fact that UK bombing of the middle east has of course resulted in more civilian deaths in the UK due to terrorism. Poke the hornets nest etc... I am not against UN backed military intervention with a 'long term plan'. I am against 'vengeance' and dick waving to maintain face with no thought nor plan. That is what Dave has put on the table and why even many Tory MPs won't back him.
    2 points
  16. If you'd told me we'd get to December 3 points ahead of Chelsea at the start of the season I'd have called the local asylum...
    2 points
  17. My thoughts, put in a simple way Singularity ( I am no physicist!), are this. The wave break, if strong enough, affects the top of the stratosphere, both disrupting the polar vortex at this height and introducing warmer air that breaks through the 'surf zone' that normally demarcates the boundary. This then causes further compressive warming as the pressure in the collapsing vortex increases. This compressive wave then descends down the stratosphere until it reaches a point where the pressure inherent in the lower stratosphere is strong enough to prevent full reversal, but the wave can still split or displace the vortex and weaken considerably.
    2 points
  18. If people don't agree with a certain POV's they're nearly insane? C'mon! You win people over by argument not insult.
    2 points
  19. Lana Del Rey seen coming out of Moki and Moki girl's London Hotel Room at 4am!
    2 points
  20. Having been a member of Netweather for a few years now i still haven't got a scooby doo how to read the models. I visit the forums everyday........more so in the winter period, as I love reading up on the search for snow. However, in our part of he world it is unrealistic to expect 3 months of snow, otherwise what would be the point of Netweather. I'm always optimistic every winter of seeing the white stuff and have a feeling this year will deliver at some point, so there's no need for negative thoughts on something no one can control......not even the models. Enjoy the fun 😃
    2 points
  21. Hahaha, hilarious! We have another one who has access to a time machine who can see beyond 5 days. You are worried about the middle of January!! You're not seriously thinking that models can tell you the weather for most of winter 2015/16 with accuracy. If you believe that then it's just as bad as believing madden and his outlandish claims, just the opposite!!
    2 points
  22. The new GEFS (bias-corrected) is also eager to jump the Wave 1 train. It has a very compact vortex. Or in another words, it is not looking as dominating as it could be actually. And given that it is being mainly displaced toward the Scandi/Siberian sector, I see it a good thing in the long run. FIM-9 is also jumping the train. Temperature anomalies are all in a similar spirit. Notice the high resolution of the FIM-9 output (0.125 grid).
    2 points
  23. So there's no link between the fact say, that wards in Stoke that formerly elected BNP councillors now elect UKIP councillors?
    1 point
  24. completely off topic, if you like americanism, Go off over there, it's consumerist rubbish. back on topic, it is a good idea, and may be a way of heightening the general publics awareness of a major storm, but unfortunately, our Mirror/Express and Mails over sensationalising of any rustle of leaves in the New Forest as a major catastrophe and a drop of sleet as worst snowstorm in 100 years probably outweighs the effectiveness with the cry wolf syndrome.
    1 point
  25. 6 degrees here, 150 miles south of you!!! Mind you, it was a stormy wet and windy day here and very interesting. Good luck to you all up there tonight, I want pics and some lamp-post snaps on my desk by morning!!! :-)
    1 point
  26. Yes and it will probably be white as well!
    1 point
  27. 1 point
  28. Labour are a complete and utter joke. Not even going to take them seriously as a party anymore. The man who idolises genocidal communists, eggs on the IRA and says people who don't like the IRA should have their kneecaps shot off, says that UKIP are the divisive force in society today. http://blogs.new.spectator.co.uk/2015/11/john-mcdonnell-ukip-is-an-evil-force-within-our-society/
    1 point
  29. sure it wasn't caroline Flack?
    1 point
  30. Well when we finally get a proper storm and not just Gales then it'll definitely make the most of it's purpose. Something comparable to the October storms in 2000 and 2002 and of course 1987 we could almost warrant the title Super Storm ........ << followed by the name!
    1 point
  31. er, no...................:0....and I can just about afford a house in Hammersmith ,not belgravia ..
    1 point
  32. Hi just woke up ready for my night shift and the news page on msn from the mirror has the headline: UK braces for 20 inches of snow as forecasters warn nowhere will escape! http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/weather-uk-braced-for-20-inches-of-snow-as-forecasters-warn-nowhere-will-escape/ar-AAfLGj2?ocid=spartanntp ​ LMAO
    1 point
  33. Second weekend in a row I've seen falling and lying snow. Just goes to prove the saying "there's no such thing as the wrong weather, just the wrong location".
    1 point
  34. MOKI LOVED LONDON SO MUCH, HE IS GOING TO MOVE DOWN HERE PERMANENTLY! :shok:
    1 point
  35. lol, fat chance ......
    1 point
  36. Excerpt from Baldwin and Dunkerton 1999 gives the same description as both of the above in the 'science paper' language, also introduces E-P Flux and why we like looking for those poleward arrows ! Stratospheric warmings involve interactions between the zonal flow of the polar stratosphere and upward propagating planetary waves consisting primarily of zonal wave numbers 1 and 2. Normally, the zonal flow is very strong in the wintertime lower polar stratosphere and vertically propagating waves tend to be deflected equatorward. But if the lower stratosphere is “pre-conditioned†by earlier wave activity, the zonal flow is weakened or moved poleward and vertically propagating waves tend to be deflected poleward. The vertical component of the E-P Flux (Fz) which is proportional to the poleward heat flux maximizes at about 10 hPa at this time. The area above the heat flux maximum (divergence of wave forcing) acts to decelerate the eastward zonal flow. A residual circulation then induces sinking motion below and poleward of this forcing region. The sinking motion causes the temperatures to increase due to adiabatic warming. This reduces the thermal gradient which in turn reduces the zonal wind speed. These large temperature and wind anomalies then propagate downward into the lower stratosphere (Baldwin and Dunkerton, 1999; Limpasuvan et al., 2004). Zonal Mean Zonal Wind and EP Flux from JMA and via Berlin http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/fluxes.gif Then you get into conditions in the atmosphere which are beneficial and non-beneficial to EP Flux propagation, sea ice, solar flux etc. It's an area that continues to reveal and we learn something new about each season.
    1 point
  37. Its her honeymoon. http://www.swurvradio.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Lana-Honeymoon-500.jpg
    1 point
  38. Going all out there, thrilling stuff!
    1 point
  39. Weather warning now updated from Met Office for NI for snow 2-5cm 150m 10cm 300m Slushy deposits possible to low levels C.S
    1 point
  40. I think so pom just home and I'm gusting to the high 20s and my anemometer is very sheltered plenty of rain overnight too. It's very dark seems like more rain us likely. I'll have to have a check and see if I have any snow predicted. I only have sleet predicted tomorrow
    1 point
  41. Thanks Cheshire meto going for snow showers tomorrow too, I wasn't expecting that...
    1 point
  42. The return of Saga and co has neatly taken care of Saturday nights, at least for the next three weeks. Compelling stuff.
    1 point
  43. she was with us :0...
    1 point
  44. On the phone to the parents up on the Lancashire/Cumbria coast earlier today, they've had enough of being drenched and blown over and desperate for it to stop. I didn't have the heart to tell them that it might continue for a week or so at least. They did sound desperate, a little bit of high pressure would be a life saver up there.
    1 point
  45. Jamie Vardy scores for a record 11th straight game
    1 point
  46. """""High temperatures will remain very cold as well. Highs will be 10 to 30 degrees colder than what is normally expected for the end of November over parts of the Rockies and High Plains again on Saturday, while highs 10 to 20 degrees below average will persist over Nevada and parts of neighboring states. Highs will only reach the teens and 20s in parts of the Rockies and adjacent High Plains, with 30s and 40s for the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin and portions of the central and southern Plains. "" http://www.weather.com/storms/winter/news/winter-storm-cara-arctic-blast-snow-west-plains-november-2015 Will be interesting if long range forecast is correct based on the EL NIino http://www.weather.com/forecast/national/news/winter-temperature-outlook-update-november-2015-2016
    1 point
  47. Got to admit the recent forecasts on beeb are getting my goat. Forecast for this weekend a cold unsettled one. Err well Saturdays is going to be by day cool to rather cold fine but Sunday will be mild so why say it's cold? The other morning temps a good four degrees above normal presented as a chilly start. We seem to be slipping back to old bad standards when the Carol Kirkwoods of the world say it's freezing when it was 10C on Jan morning. Changing providers won't solve this but I wish they would reflect the actual weather rather than someone whos got the heating set at 50C and wonders why it's chilly when they go out into 30C
    1 point
  48. lol labour has been center right for years, now someone's trying to get it left the rights are not happy, was always going to be this way. Conservatives are more far right then most people realise. Because they are not extreme when it comes to people everyone assumes the rest of their policies are also in the middle, they are not.
    1 point
  49. Hi, I have a question, was watching a documentary I had skyplused over the weekend about the nuclear arms race, one section of the programme was about the largest nuclear weapon ever tested ( 1500 times the size of the atom bombs dropped at the end WWll,and 10 times the power of every conventional bomb dropped during the war combined!) https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tsar_Bomba . Now what caught my eye was where this was detonated was in the far north of Russia on an island on almost the same latitude as Svalbard. Was wondering did this have any effect on the polar vortex? What really caught my eye was the fact that the test was conducted on 30th October 1962 and we all know what happen during the uk winter of 62/63. So was wondering was one of our coldest winter the result of a man made SSW?? From what I can read the fireball from the explosion rose to at least 45,000 feet and the core of the explosion was an estimated 150,000,000 degrees Fahrenheit and the actual radioactive mushroom cloud rose so high it went beyond the stratosphere. Would be interested to know what you guys think??
    1 point
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