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Showing content with the highest reputation on 01/11/15 in Posts

  1. You do not need a Hubble telescope to find cold potential. However we must look towards Mid November the morning GFS shows what we need to look, for the pesky euro high to dissipate and loosen east with southerly tracking lows indicative of a southerly tracking jet. Also note virtually all the chunks/lobes of PV are on Eurasia side on other side it is actually more susceptible to a block be that a Mid Atlantic block or Greenland high of some form - we are very fortunate how this euro high will eventually relent not diminishing our winter cold chances. I think there are reasons for Coldies to be overall quite cheery, expect more eye-candy in the coming days and weeks. I think we could be on course for a cold start to winter, contrary to what others are saying.
    17 points
  2. Lots to be positive about, GFS starting to look better mid Nov , Siberian snow cover is good, Midoki El Niño forming, Tripole ish Atlantic, and the last time it was this warm in Nov was 1946 I have a feeling late Nov nov may be a shock to the system.
    8 points
  3. Well, following the warmest / hottest November day on record according to BBC weather, 22 celsius in parts of wales, I'm willing those lovely blue colours on the T850 charts to reach the uk around mid november time or at least during the 2nd half of Nov , the Gfs 12z op run shows a change from the current quiet benign weather in the short term to generally very unsettled conditions through low res with very windy / stormy conditions at times and pushes colder air close to the uk towards the end of the run, surely if we keep seeing charts like these, the right combination to draw cold air across the uk will be found with Arctic air not too far away to the NW.. i'm not waiting another month to start chasing cold, let the games begin already!
    6 points
  4. Interesting new study based on satellite altimeter measurements of Antarctica (measure ice height using lasers) More here http://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/nasa-study-mass-gains-of-antarctic-ice-sheet-greater-than-losses
    5 points
  5. Another glorious sunny Autumn morning dawns. Dry as a bone here. Trapped under centre of Euro High for another 10 days at least. No snow on the horizon. Its going to be a late start to our winter sports season. All I can do is chop fire wood and wait and make more tea... looking at these latest model charts depresses me. Time to turn off and talk to the wife for a change ! C
    4 points
  6. BOM has just released the national statistics for October and it was a monster of a month. The mean maximum temperature as expected was a national record with a +3.44C anomaly ( 1961-90 )...the largest anomaly ever recorded for any month ( exceeding September 2013 which had a maximum anomaly of 3.41C ). More than half the continents land mass exceeded its previous October record, reflected in measurements from hundreds of stations across all states that returned a record. This is the third spring in a row for a monthly mean maximum record ( Sep 2013, Oct 2014, Oct 2015 ) The overall mean temperature was also a record high for October, with an anomaly of +2.89C, overshooting other historical highs by a long way. This is also the highest mean anomaly recorded for any month ( exceeding September 2013 which had a mean anomaly of +2.75C ) It is also the third spring in a row to have a monthly heat record in the season. ( Sep 2013, November 2014, October 2015 ).
    4 points
  7. I have started compiling the figures, these will be up tomorrow evening.
    3 points
  8. Signs from the ens. that the euro heights will flatten in week 2 and we lose the ridging towards Scandianavia. This will see the jet easing further south with some polar maritime air getting into parts of Scotland at times. The difference in the pattern in 24hrs and by day 8 from the GFS ens.mean shows how the pattern is expected to evolve. We can see how the block changes it's orientation later on. Although the flow will still be from between south and west some colder air from the north Atlantic will start to become available behind any cold fronts towards the north west quadrant of the UK. While the mild theme continues further south it will start to feel more seasonal(colder) up north with quite a wide range of max temps. So yes the mild theme continues for another week or so but just the first signs of the jet becoming more active and easing south bringing that polar air closer to the far north.
    3 points
  9. Here's what the 06z GFS shows for the first 10 days of the month 12.0C to the 1st (12.0: +2.6) 12.1C to the 2nd (12.2: +3.2) 11.5C to the 3rd (10.4: +1.4) 11.6C to the 4th (11.9: +3.4) 11.7C to the 5th (12.1: +3.8] 12.1C to the 6th (13.8: +5.6) [Record high: 13.4C] 12.6C to the 7th (15.5: +7.2) [Record high: 13.4C] 12.5C to the 8th (11.7: +3.0) 12.1C to the 9th (9.5: +1.4) 12.1C to the 10th (11.9: +4.0) Close to record mild for the start of the month. The latest a daily CET of 15.0C or more has been recorded is November 5th so the forecast for the 7th is quite interesting. The graph below shows the rolling average CET for the years with the warmest first 10 days, and the forecast 2015.
    3 points
  10. This exceptionally mild weather for the start of November is interesting. I've seen many a winter with cold weather in November/early December only for the rest of the winter to end up mild and wet. I do seem to remember the start of November 1978 being exceptionally mild, with a cold plunge of arctic air at the end of the month. This led to a cold but dry December, and then that exceptional cold spell over the New Year period and one of the coldest winters I can remember. ~ So you never can tell. Still, nothing cold at all on the horizon.
    3 points
  11. A few graphs for October 2015. CET: Before and after corrections The corrections themselves. October 2015 compared to the historical averages and extremes October 2015 ranks as the joint 46th warmest on record, with only 24 of those warmer months occurring before 1950. This is the 11th October with a CET of 11.0C. The warmest daily average was 15.8C, exceeding the warmest daily average for September by 0.2C. This has only occurred in 19 other years, the most recent being 2011.
    3 points
  12. Interesting article about all the recent cold winter hype.http://www.itv.com/news/anglia/2015-10-30/will-it-be-a-cold-and-snowy-winter-or-wet-mild-and-stormy/
    3 points
  13. In the shorter time frame the ecm still has the shallow low Brest by midweek before reverting to a nice southerly flow and some quite warm temps. The dafs certainly think it's xmas already.
    3 points
  14. Best months of the year now for daylight hours (November to January). Enjoy it while it lasts.
    3 points
  15. Indeed I cannot see any major change over the UK from what is predicted by the anomaly charts. Obviously Atlantic weather systems will affect some parts from time to time but any sign of the major trough coming east seem unlikely for 2 weeks. see 8-14 NOAA in knockers post above.
    2 points
  16. I'm not aware there has been any definitive long range forecasts that show any degree of accuracy ever. The spread reflects 'don't know' and is probably better then any Daily Express forecast.
    2 points
  17. I guess we can now add the warmest November day to this thread...
    2 points
  18. My favourite time of year - the Santa Shaker is back http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=xmas;sess=
    2 points
  19. Air from near the Azores gets thrown our way around the Euro Ridge according to the majority of recent GFS det. runs. The 12z delivers 20*C in East Anglia next Saturday which is just bonkers. The 2m temp anomalies look like this: Is the Nov CET heading for a record first half? Seems likely to me.
    2 points
  20. Stunning Day again, this Autumn has 'nearly' made up for the July, cold, trough, deluge. As much as it was a grim Summer, this Autumn has felt quite unique given the prevalence of High Pressure. Chance to see loads of colour without the attendant Atlantic Jet blasts to dislodge everything. Some say boring, but think it's quite tranquil. Temp record did go around lunchtime in Wales, so a record breaking start to November. At the moment Winter seems an entire world away seasonally...
    2 points
  21. End of October all appears to be well nothing of note to report. I have added some potential variations
    2 points
  22. I feel it's a bit early for cold chasing. I'm giving it another 3 weeks / a month at least.
    2 points
  23. After todays record breaking day (In Wales at least), temperatures will dip somewhat down to just above average as the 850s mix out over the UK, we also will see some showery rain pushing north during the middle of the week as a cut off low moves north and re-engages with the jetstream pushing across the north of the UK. Shown nicely by the UKMO. After this a more typical NW/SE split develops as heights re-establish over Europe with low pressure running just north west of the UK with rain for the north west but very little getting to the south and east of the UK. Despite being in November, there is enough evidence to suggest that the 20C barrier could again be breached given the current output (possible tomorrow in the west again, but also next Saturday going by these charts). It would be all down to the strength and direction of the wind, but this warm sector is again bringing some very high 850s for the time of year (8-12C). The GFS showing some impressive maxima for next weekend. 19C widely across the central/southern England with 20/21C possible. A long way off but there isn't much really to talk about otherwise from a broad SW flow set up which appears to be gaining momentum at the present time.
    2 points
  24. It's been difficult to drag myself out of summer hibernation this year, the 4 wave resulting in a Euro High pattern is the stuff of nightmares as most of us here I'm sure know how difficult it can be to shift. But hey, it's November, not January, so no worries on the time front at least! The first half of November therefore looks highly unlikely to produce our first proper cold spell of the season, I think the Atlantic breaking through and a spell of wet and stormy weather would be the favoured option ahead of any cold spell anyway. Which, let's face it, probably holds true for a good 9 out of 10 Novembers! That said, there have been a few subtle hints out in far FI of the past few GFS runs that a more favourable (in terms of cold) pattern change may be on the cards for Mid month. Ensembles will come into their own here, as will the anomaly charts, on picking up a potential change.
    2 points
  25. Still foggy and dull, better than gales and pouring rain. Agree with Ben what is people moan about benign weather. Sorry but even this beats gales and rain, even if it is default autumn weather. At least if the fog clears it will be really warm.
    2 points
  26. October confirmed as 11.0C http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_2015
    2 points
  27. Beautiful clear autumn morning here. Blue skies and chilly. No major rain or Atlantic storms for the next 10 days it seems.. Long may it continue. Why on earth are folk on the MOD thread crying over the benign weather is beyond me, let's be real here, it's 1st November therefore if it isn't the benign weather it's mild Atlantic wet crap. Save the cold weather for December/January when we actually have a chance of seeing snowfall. Off out for for a run with the dog now in the sunshine. Happy Sunday
    2 points
  28. Nothing major to speak of, albeit a shift towards the Atlantic looks like a possibility after a few days of relatively settled weather. One thing I've noticed in the trends - silly to look for anything more than that at this point - is the notable downward trend in 850s. See this for leeds from the 18Z GEFs Ens: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=267&ext=1&y=13&run=12&runpara=0 Quite a few of the postage stamps show HLBs by the end of Lala land so just something worth pinning in the background - if only to remind us that with November starting as of 30 minutes ago, wintry Synoptics need never be too far away...
    2 points
  29. A poor start to the day but the afternoon was good. Not that I was too bothered: a new book dropped on the doormat this morning (cheers Sandy): 'Set Adrift upon the World' - James Hunter's account of the Sutherland clearances, written in his usual lucid, compact style. I remember reading Prebble's account of the clearances when I was young and it all felt very abstract and academic... now that I know the Sutherland straths and also know I have family connections there from that period, this latest book is starting to tear me apart.
    2 points
  30. The snow's made another decent push west and Russia's about 90% filled in! Scandi is also getting in on the act with Finland fairing well. At this rate we should see snow in about three weeks time!!!!
    2 points
  31. One of one of those once in a blue moon moments this morning when I was strolling around the lake. I nearly got some very good photos but not quite unfortunately. I was sitting quietly when the peace was shattered out in the middle of the lake as Charlie the Cormorant surfaced with a large eel, Mayhem ensued during which the eel got wrapped around Charlie's neck. I lost them then as they went under but I think the eel got away. Anyway Charlie came ashore for a wash and brush up and to explain it was this size guvnor.
    2 points
  32. "Those of us who don't want november to be one long mild benign bore fest will like this run" If the November weather is like today, long may the "borefest" continue. If we can't get blizzards then let's have what we currently have rather than the usual wet and windy.
    2 points
  33. If you think someone is trolling, report it rather than point it out publicly, it just serves to derail the thread And can we please drop this mildie -v- coldie nonsense please.
    2 points
  34. Trolling? Not sure how.Just posting a potential option on the table. But as its not what coldies want to see no wonder it gets shot down...
    2 points
  35. You'd need the Hubble telescope to find cold on the charts I'm looking at.
    2 points
  36. Crazy temps over the last few days. Thursday evening it dropped to 4c, Friday night up to 17c. Currently 13.6c, calm and cloudy. We had a mini power cut on Friday night, off for about an hour. Plenty of candles on hand, plus oil lamps and torches. Then the internet crashed and has been playing up something terrible since. Spent a lot of time talking to BT in the hope it will sort itself out. It's been OK now for a whole thirty minutes! The joys of living in the Highlands and Islands!
    1 point
  37. Very true,mother nature has a habit of balancing things out. Totally sick of this boring weather,need a change!
    1 point
  38. I don't have high hopes for this winter. I mean look at Europe right now. If it wasn't for falling leaves I would think it's late spring. We are flooded with warm air and temperature is going up. These situations are also unbelievably stable. Not to mention it's dry as hell and our dams are already half empty (http://fm.denik.cz/galerie/poloprazdna-prehrada-sance.html). Another warm and dry winter after this year's scorching summer would mean some serious water shortages next spring.
    1 point
  39. 15.4 ... ... warmest day (5th, 1938) 14.4 ... ... ... warmest day in second half (22nd, 1947) 10.5 ... GOODBYE COLD WEATHER 10.1 ... ... ... ... warmest Nov 1994 10.0 ... 9.9 .... 9.8 .... 9.7 .... 9.6 .... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... second warmest Nov 2011 9.5 .... ROGER J SMITH ... ... ... ... third warmest Nov 1818 9.4 .... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .fourth warmest Nov 1938 9.3 .... FEB1991BLIZZARD ... ... ... fifth warmest Nov 1743 9.2 .... TIMMYTOUR, ATLANTIC FLAMETHROWER 9.1 .... 9.0 .... FROZE WERE THE DAYS, GAEL_FORCE 8.9 .... STATIONARY FRONT, SEABREEZE86# 8.8 .... STORMING 10, COSTA DEL FAL, REEF 8.7 .... DAVID SNOW, DAVEHSUG 8.6 .... HARVE, MULZY ... ... ... ... ... ... ... tied 10th warmest Nov 2014 8.5 .... THE PIT, DR HOSKING, STEWFOX, THUNDERBOLT_ 8.4 .... MAN WITH BEARD, SYED2878, MARK BAYLEY, DON 8.3 .... ED STONE 8.2 .... EASY-OASY, STEF# 8.1 .... *SUB*ZERO* , PEGG24 8.0 .... DODO, BORNFROMTHEVOID, DUNCAN McALISTER 7.9 .... POLAR GAEL, SUNDOG, NORRANCE, 7.8 .... CONGLETON HEAT, GREAT PLUM 7.7 .... STARGAZER, MARCH BLIZZARD 7.6 .... THUNDERSNOW.DAYS, LARGER THAN AVERAGE HOBO 7.5 .... DANCERWITHWINGS, WEATHER-HISTORY, MIDLANDS ICE AGE 7.4 .... ESSEX EASTERLY ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ---- mean of 2001-2014 ---- 7.3 .... MARK N, VIRTUALSPHERE 7.2 .... STEVE.B, BLAST FROM THE PAST, DIAGONAL.RED.LINE, CORAM 7.1 .... ALWAYS EXPECT RAIN, SUMMER BLIZZARD, ADERYN COCH ... ... --- mean of 1981-2010 ---- 7.0 ... SOLARCYCLE, SUMMER SUN, SURPRISED WEATHER, J10 6.9 .... PROLONGED SNOWLOVER, JOGGS, GODBER.1 ... ... ... ---- mean of 1971-2000 ---- 6.8 .... WEATHER 26, DR(S)NO ... ... ... ... ... ... 2012 average 6.7 .... DAMIANSLAW, CAPTAIN SHORTWAVE 6.6 .... DANIEL* ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ---- mean of 1961-1990 ---- 6.5 .... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ---- mean of 1901-2000 ---- 6.4 .... DEEPSNOW, GEOFF.W 6.3 .... SIMSHADY, BIG SNOW 6.2 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 2013 average 6.1 .... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ---- mean of all years 1659-2014 ---- 6.0 .... BOBD29 5.9 .... JONBOY ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ---- mean of 1801-1900 ---- 5.8 .... .HILLBILLY ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ---- mean of 1701-1800 ---- 5.7 .... 5.6 .... BARRY 5.5 .... ... ... ... ... ... .. ... ... ... ... ---- mean of 1659-1700 ---- 5.4 .... 5.3 .... 5.2 .... 5.1 .... 5.0 .... 4,9 .... 4.8 .... JEFF.C 4.7 .... 4.6 .... 4.5 .... 4.4 .... 4.3 .... 4.2 .... 4.1 .... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... coldest in recent years (tied 28th overall) 1985 4,0 .... RELATIVISTIC STINGJET 3.6 .... VAHNSTAD 2.9 .... ... ... ... ... third coldest Nov 1807 2.8 .... ... ... ... ... second coldest Nov 1915 2.3 .... ... ... ... ... coldest Nov 1782 -0.6 ... ... ... ... earliest sub-zero mean (7th, 1791) -2.1 ... ... coldest in first half (15th, 1965) -4.6 ... coldest day (24th, 1904) __________________________________________________ 77 forecasts (75 on time, 2 late #) with a median value of 7.7 C.
    1 point
  40. 1 point
  41. Yeah well.... Politicians will be politicians. Most of us learn to disassociate our personal from professional lives...
    1 point
  42. Happy all hallows eve. Another very mild one,thats 3 out of 5 yrs. 2011, 2014 and now 2015,halloween has lost that autumnal feeling lately. Overcast here until early afternoon,now it is mostly clear and sunny. Current temp 15.5c ,got up to 15.9 a while ago. Last night low 13.7c. There is a decent chance of some fog tonight which should make it feel more seaonal if it happens.
    1 point
  43. Hi guys, we have just done a winter forecast, these are our thoughts for upcoming winter, just thought I would share it with you, remember this is just a rough idea, doesn't mean this will definatly happen, this is our very own work, no copyright! Winter forecast 2015/2016 (December, January and February) This years forecast is somewhat more confusing than previous years due to conflicting signals. If you only want to read about the forecast then please scroll down to the bottom of the article but if you want to read about how we put the forecast together then read on! Producing a winter forecast is extremely difficult, mainly because small scale events (such as an unexpected cluster of thunderstorms over the Azores for example) can lead to a complete change of weather for us in the UK, so whilst we like to try and forecast a general trend, a specific forecast is completely impossible, even with today's level of technology. So how do we put this forecast together? We use a whole array of different computer models and forecast models and this combined with real-time data of wind strength and directions from various atmospheric altitudes and latitudes. Quasi-biennial oscillation The QBO is a fairly useful tool in predicting the season ahead, especially later in the winter. The QBO is the measurement of wind strength and direction in the upper atmosphere close to the equator. The wind in this area goes through phases, sometimes blowing eastwards, sometimes blowing westwards and this can have a butterfly effect which can impact the weather for the UK. Currently we are in a westward phase of the QBO which evidence shows can have an effect on......... Stratospheric Warming Sudden Stratospheric Warming or an SST can develop at any time during the winter months but more especially later in the winter. It happens when the upper atmosphere suddenly starts to warm at an unprecedented rate, sometimes rising over 100C in just a few days! This disrupts the normal anticlockwise motion of the upper level winds and this can often propagate downwards which in turn can have an effect of disrupting the usual west to east jet stream wind pattern of the troposphere (the area where all the weather takes place). In turn this can cause the jet stream to meander north and south rather than moving west to east which then causes colder air to drift south into mid latitudes (including the UK). Now this is the difficult part! Stratospheric warming's take place quite often when the QBO is in a westerly phase BUT this happens more often when the sunspot activity is high. Currently the sunspot activity is very low and this may lessen the chances of a SST developing. Sunspot activity As mentioned above the activity of the sun can have an influence on atmospheric weather patterns. We have just talked about how the sun and the QBO go hand in hand with producing warming's in the upper atmosphere but there is another side to the story (a conflicting side). During high sunspot activity it is often seen that the Jet stream increases in strength which in turn brings nasty conditions such as wind and rain to many places in western Europe whilst a long period of low sunspot activity can lessen the effect of the jet stream over a longer period of time. This contradicts everything we have said above but there is a reason behind it. When the QBO is neutral or in an easterly phase and the sunspot activity is very low it may lead to a general period of cold and once established my last the whole winter whereas a westerly QBO phase (as now) with low sunspot activity often sees the coldest conditions later in winter such as February and March as this is when the highest chance for a SSW may occur. El Nino Southern oscillation (ENSO) I expect you have all heard in the news that there is currently a very strong El Nino taking place. An El Nino is the warm phase of ENSO whereas a La Nina is the cold phase. The warm phase is when the central or eastern tropical pacific ocean warms dramatically and this of course can have a large impact on global weather conditions. A La Nina is when upwelling cold water starts to cool the surface temperature in the central and eastern pacific ocean. In the UK during a strong El Nino we often see high pressure developing towards central and northern Europe and this often brings a dry winter season in those areas including the UK. As well as a dry winter season it is often slightly milder than average as a whole, especially early on in the season during the mid/late autumn and often again mid winter. This year however we have a few conflicting signals which means that although El Nino is likely to have some of the usual effects (drier than average for the UK) the conflicting signals may not keep things quite as mild as the winter develops. Cold pool in the mid Atlantic This is something else that has often been mentioned in the news in recent weeks. A colder than average Atlantic usually has the effect of producing somewhat weaker storm systems due to a slightly weaker Atlantic jet stream and this often means that the low pressure storm systems will either stall out to the west of the UK or reach us in a rather weakened state. Also if High pressure manages to set up to our east it will mean that any rainfall will be deflected as the low pressure systems attempt to move northeastwards around the blocking high pressure area. This also means we may occasionally see a stronger than average Azores high pressure system, especially later in the winter although it is likely to be displaced slightly further south than usual. North Atlantic oscillation The "NAO" is the pressure pattern of the north Atlantic. When it's in a negative phase it means that pressure is higher than usual in high latitudes. When in a positive phase it means that low pressure is more frequent in mid and high latitudes. This winter we think that it will be rather neutral overall with a slightly positive anomaly in December and January. We are expecting there to be a somewhat negative anomaly in February and March. Other data There are a few other things we take into consideration, one of which is the European pressure patterns during October. Using October as a winter guideline isn't an officially validated method but by using certain markers throughout the 40 days from the end of September thought to the start of November we have found a near 75% correlation between those patterns and the period December, January and February. The main part of this method is the persistence of a European high pressure cell throughout October. UK winter forecast 2015/2016 The coming December is a very difficult one to predict due to the mixed signals but current indications point to a fairly average month temperature wise with the potential of one or two cold spells. We think that any cold weather is most likely at the start of the month and again later in the month. We aren't expecting any long duration cold spells but we think there may be a few fairly strong Atlantic storms, especially mid month, also any cold that develops later in the month may be quite intense although of rather short duration. Temperature slightly below average Rainfall slightly below average January is looking like a rather mixed month with a rather chilly start but also signs of a dry mild period mid (possibly around mid month). Later in the month things may turn colder once again. A few Atlantic storms are also likely although we aren't expecting severe conditions like previous years. Any cold spells are likely to be very short lived but possibly quite intense and we certainly wont rule out the odd snowfall although predicting snow at this range is virtually impossible. Temperature close to average Rainfall slightly below average February looks as though it could be rather chilly with a mix of cold dry spells interspersed with wetter slightly milder conditions. We are expecting a handful of colder periods more especially towards the end of the month. Temperature below average Rainfall close to average Please remember that forecasting a whole season ahead with accuracy is impossible so instead we try to pick up on trends. An educated guess-cast is probably a more accurate way to describe it although there is a fair amount of science behind our predictions and our forecasts have proven to be rather effective with a very high accuracy rating for the 2013/2014 winter of storms and an extremely high accuracy rating for the 2010/2011 winter. Hope you enjoy the read
    1 point
  44. I admire your confidence, really I do. I'm just an interested bystander who keeps an eye on the forecast because as a gardener, the weather has a huge impact on my day to day life. I find this whole long range forecasting stuff a bit of a black art, try to pick my way through to get a general idea. Nick F has posted above that the signs are conflicting, he's a clever chap, knows his stuff so I'll take comfort that it's not just a numpty like me who thinks the vast array of variables are not making it easy to come up with a firm idea of what lays ahead for the next few months.
    1 point
  45. And what is wrong with that john? BFTP
    1 point
  46. I only have a least-favourite season - Autumn; the end-of-October 'daylight-robbery' gives my SAD a kick start!
    1 point
  47. Never new their was open and closed votes Learnt something
    1 point
  48. Nope, it's an open poll, anyone can see the votes. In private polls nobody can see the votes (that I'm aware of).
    1 point
  49. Hans Renssen has done a lot of research on past climate events in the N. Atlantic/Arctic region - an extensive list below. http://www.falw.vu/~renh/pub_list.html
    1 point
  50. Time will tell how close that updated three month forecast turns out to be. I have a feeling that many more years of analysis of the main climate drivers and their interactions is needed before those forecasts can considered to be modestly reliable. I understand the rain and temperature outlook it's framed around a percentage likelyhood only but it takes just one wayward cyclone moving inland or a stubborn inland trough to create a significant rain event and then consequent cooling. The winter forecast was also way off the mark I must say ( colder and drier in the south east ) and summer 2012-13 was an angry summer that no one saw coming. Bushfire season will be bad if the dry September ( and now October ) lasts into the summer. Looking at severe bushfire events in the past though they have happened under different lead up conditions. What they all had in common was a severe weather day after about 4 weeks of close to no rainfall, that's all it seems to take. One thing that might reduce the intensity of fires this year is a lack of spring rain, preventing very high growth rates of the forest understory and grasses. -------------------- BOM has released a comprehensive Significant Climate Statement on the October heatwave for those wanting to check out some maps and temperature records that fell http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/statements/
    1 point
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