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Showing most liked content on 01/11/15 in all areas

  1. 17 points
    You do not need a Hubble telescope to find cold potential. However we must look towards Mid November the morning GFS shows what we need to look, for the pesky euro high to dissipate and loosen east with southerly tracking lows indicative of a southerly tracking jet. Also note virtually all the chunks/lobes of PV are on Eurasia side on other side it is actually more susceptible to a block be that a Mid Atlantic block or Greenland high of some form - we are very fortunate how this euro high will eventually relent not diminishing our winter cold chances. I think there are reasons for Coldies to be overall quite cheery, expect more eye-candy in the coming days and weeks. I think we could be on course for a cold start to winter, contrary to what others are saying.
  2. 8 points
    Lots to be positive about, GFS starting to look better mid Nov , Siberian snow cover is good, Midoki El Niño forming, Tripole ish Atlantic, and the last time it was this warm in Nov was 1946 I have a feeling late Nov nov may be a shock to the system.
  3. 6 points
    Well, following the warmest / hottest November day on record according to BBC weather, 22 celsius in parts of wales, I'm willing those lovely blue colours on the T850 charts to reach the uk around mid november time or at least during the 2nd half of Nov , the Gfs 12z op run shows a change from the current quiet benign weather in the short term to generally very unsettled conditions through low res with very windy / stormy conditions at times and pushes colder air close to the uk towards the end of the run, surely if we keep seeing charts like these, the right combination to draw cold air across the uk will be found with Arctic air not too far away to the NW.. i'm not waiting another month to start chasing cold, let the games begin already!
  4. 5 points
    Interesting new study based on satellite altimeter measurements of Antarctica (measure ice height using lasers) More here http://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/nasa-study-mass-gains-of-antarctic-ice-sheet-greater-than-losses
  5. 4 points
    Another glorious sunny Autumn morning dawns. Dry as a bone here. Trapped under centre of Euro High for another 10 days at least. No snow on the horizon. Its going to be a late start to our winter sports season. All I can do is chop fire wood and wait and make more tea... looking at these latest model charts depresses me. Time to turn off and talk to the wife for a change ! C
  6. 4 points
    BOM has just released the national statistics for October and it was a monster of a month. The mean maximum temperature as expected was a national record with a +3.44C anomaly ( 1961-90 )...the largest anomaly ever recorded for any month ( exceeding September 2013 which had a maximum anomaly of 3.41C ). More than half the continents land mass exceeded its previous October record, reflected in measurements from hundreds of stations across all states that returned a record. This is the third spring in a row for a monthly mean maximum record ( Sep 2013, Oct 2014, Oct 2015 ) The overall mean temperature was also a record high for October, with an anomaly of +2.89C, overshooting other historical highs by a long way. This is also the highest mean anomaly recorded for any month ( exceeding September 2013 which had a mean anomaly of +2.75C ) It is also the third spring in a row to have a monthly heat record in the season. ( Sep 2013, November 2014, October 2015 ).
  7. 3 points
    I have started compiling the figures, these will be up tomorrow evening.
  8. 3 points
    Signs from the ens. that the euro heights will flatten in week 2 and we lose the ridging towards Scandianavia. This will see the jet easing further south with some polar maritime air getting into parts of Scotland at times. The difference in the pattern in 24hrs and by day 8 from the GFS ens.mean shows how the pattern is expected to evolve. We can see how the block changes it's orientation later on. Although the flow will still be from between south and west some colder air from the north Atlantic will start to become available behind any cold fronts towards the north west quadrant of the UK. While the mild theme continues further south it will start to feel more seasonal(colder) up north with quite a wide range of max temps. So yes the mild theme continues for another week or so but just the first signs of the jet becoming more active and easing south bringing that polar air closer to the far north.
  9. 3 points
  10. 3 points
    Here's what the 06z GFS shows for the first 10 days of the month 12.0C to the 1st (12.0: +2.6) 12.1C to the 2nd (12.2: +3.2) 11.5C to the 3rd (10.4: +1.4) 11.6C to the 4th (11.9: +3.4) 11.7C to the 5th (12.1: +3.8] 12.1C to the 6th (13.8: +5.6) [Record high: 13.4C] 12.6C to the 7th (15.5: +7.2) [Record high: 13.4C] 12.5C to the 8th (11.7: +3.0) 12.1C to the 9th (9.5: +1.4) 12.1C to the 10th (11.9: +4.0) Close to record mild for the start of the month. The latest a daily CET of 15.0C or more has been recorded is November 5th so the forecast for the 7th is quite interesting. The graph below shows the rolling average CET for the years with the warmest first 10 days, and the forecast 2015.
  11. 3 points
    This exceptionally mild weather for the start of November is interesting. I've seen many a winter with cold weather in November/early December only for the rest of the winter to end up mild and wet. I do seem to remember the start of November 1978 being exceptionally mild, with a cold plunge of arctic air at the end of the month. This led to a cold but dry December, and then that exceptional cold spell over the New Year period and one of the coldest winters I can remember. ~ So you never can tell. Still, nothing cold at all on the horizon.
  12. 3 points
    A few graphs for October 2015. CET: Before and after corrections The corrections themselves. October 2015 compared to the historical averages and extremes October 2015 ranks as the joint 46th warmest on record, with only 24 of those warmer months occurring before 1950. This is the 11th October with a CET of 11.0C. The warmest daily average was 15.8C, exceeding the warmest daily average for September by 0.2C. This has only occurred in 19 other years, the most recent being 2011.
  13. 3 points
    Interesting article about all the recent cold winter hype.http://www.itv.com/news/anglia/2015-10-30/will-it-be-a-cold-and-snowy-winter-or-wet-mild-and-stormy/
  14. 3 points
    In the shorter time frame the ecm still has the shallow low Brest by midweek before reverting to a nice southerly flow and some quite warm temps. The dafs certainly think it's xmas already.
  15. 3 points
    Best months of the year now for daylight hours (November to January). Enjoy it while it lasts.
  16. 2 points
    Indeed I cannot see any major change over the UK from what is predicted by the anomaly charts. Obviously Atlantic weather systems will affect some parts from time to time but any sign of the major trough coming east seem unlikely for 2 weeks. see 8-14 NOAA in knockers post above.
  17. 2 points
    I'm not aware there has been any definitive long range forecasts that show any degree of accuracy ever. The spread reflects 'don't know' and is probably better then any Daily Express forecast.
  18. 2 points
    I guess we can now add the warmest November day to this thread...
  19. 2 points
    My favourite time of year - the Santa Shaker is back http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=xmas;sess=
  20. 2 points
    Air from near the Azores gets thrown our way around the Euro Ridge according to the majority of recent GFS det. runs. The 12z delivers 20*C in East Anglia next Saturday which is just bonkers. The 2m temp anomalies look like this: Is the Nov CET heading for a record first half? Seems likely to me.
  21. 2 points
  22. 2 points
    Well perhaps next Halloween you may want to dress up as the Phantom of Darkness and be the Grim Reaper, perhaps that will make you feel better! In all Honesty, Halloween is for "FUN" setting aside the more serious side of the spiritual world! "Over Glorified " is certainly true of Christmas . High expectations and a anti climax is generally true of Christmas Day...Statistically Christmas shows more family break-ups ,more loneliness and tension and the saddest part of the year...for many! I love the lights, Carols and general build up to Christmas , but the stress on people is enourmous at this time of year...... Anyway a spooktacular Ghost Train ride Across the stunning Rhiedol Steam railyway ,lots of spooks ,Phantoms and really scary things happening along that track....Happy Times and the weather was perfect.........Roll on next Hallowennnnnnnnnnnnnn :diablo:
  23. 2 points
    Stunning Day again, this Autumn has 'nearly' made up for the July, cold, trough, deluge. As much as it was a grim Summer, this Autumn has felt quite unique given the prevalence of High Pressure. Chance to see loads of colour without the attendant Atlantic Jet blasts to dislodge everything. Some say boring, but think it's quite tranquil. Temp record did go around lunchtime in Wales, so a record breaking start to November. At the moment Winter seems an entire world away seasonally...
  24. 2 points
    End of October all appears to be well nothing of note to report. I have added some potential variations
  25. 2 points
    I feel it's a bit early for cold chasing. I'm giving it another 3 weeks / a month at least.
  26. 2 points
    After todays record breaking day (In Wales at least), temperatures will dip somewhat down to just above average as the 850s mix out over the UK, we also will see some showery rain pushing north during the middle of the week as a cut off low moves north and re-engages with the jetstream pushing across the north of the UK. Shown nicely by the UKMO. After this a more typical NW/SE split develops as heights re-establish over Europe with low pressure running just north west of the UK with rain for the north west but very little getting to the south and east of the UK. Despite being in November, there is enough evidence to suggest that the 20C barrier could again be breached given the current output (possible tomorrow in the west again, but also next Saturday going by these charts). It would be all down to the strength and direction of the wind, but this warm sector is again bringing some very high 850s for the time of year (8-12C). The GFS showing some impressive maxima for next weekend. 19C widely across the central/southern England with 20/21C possible. A long way off but there isn't much really to talk about otherwise from a broad SW flow set up which appears to be gaining momentum at the present time.
  27. 2 points
    It's been difficult to drag myself out of summer hibernation this year, the 4 wave resulting in a Euro High pattern is the stuff of nightmares as most of us here I'm sure know how difficult it can be to shift. But hey, it's November, not January, so no worries on the time front at least! The first half of November therefore looks highly unlikely to produce our first proper cold spell of the season, I think the Atlantic breaking through and a spell of wet and stormy weather would be the favoured option ahead of any cold spell anyway. Which, let's face it, probably holds true for a good 9 out of 10 Novembers! That said, there have been a few subtle hints out in far FI of the past few GFS runs that a more favourable (in terms of cold) pattern change may be on the cards for Mid month. Ensembles will come into their own here, as will the anomaly charts, on picking up a potential change.
  28. 2 points
    Oh dear Moki...we all say that but we all do it again. Go out for a nice long walk in the sunshine (if you have it) and then have a few glasses of wine! You'll be better in no time...
  29. 2 points
    Moki has a big booming hangover after booming to 5 am ......
  30. 2 points
    Still foggy and dull, better than gales and pouring rain. Agree with Ben what is people moan about benign weather. Sorry but even this beats gales and rain, even if it is default autumn weather. At least if the fog clears it will be really warm.
  31. 2 points
    October confirmed as 11.0C http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_2015
  32. 2 points
    Beautiful clear autumn morning here. Blue skies and chilly. No major rain or Atlantic storms for the next 10 days it seems.. Long may it continue. Why on earth are folk on the MOD thread crying over the benign weather is beyond me, let's be real here, it's 1st November therefore if it isn't the benign weather it's mild Atlantic wet crap. Save the cold weather for December/January when we actually have a chance of seeing snowfall. Off out for for a run with the dog now in the sunshine. Happy Sunday
  33. 2 points
    Nothing major to speak of, albeit a shift towards the Atlantic looks like a possibility after a few days of relatively settled weather. One thing I've noticed in the trends - silly to look for anything more than that at this point - is the notable downward trend in 850s. See this for leeds from the 18Z GEFs Ens: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=267&ext=1&y=13&run=12&runpara=0 Quite a few of the postage stamps show HLBs by the end of Lala land so just something worth pinning in the background - if only to remind us that with November starting as of 30 minutes ago, wintry Synoptics need never be too far away...
  34. 2 points
    A poor start to the day but the afternoon was good. Not that I was too bothered: a new book dropped on the doormat this morning (cheers Sandy): 'Set Adrift upon the World' - James Hunter's account of the Sutherland clearances, written in his usual lucid, compact style. I remember reading Prebble's account of the clearances when I was young and it all felt very abstract and academic... now that I know the Sutherland straths and also know I have family connections there from that period, this latest book is starting to tear me apart.
  35. 2 points
    The snow's made another decent push west and Russia's about 90% filled in! Scandi is also getting in on the act with Finland fairing well. At this rate we should see snow in about three weeks time!!!!
  36. 2 points
    One of one of those once in a blue moon moments this morning when I was strolling around the lake. I nearly got some very good photos but not quite unfortunately. I was sitting quietly when the peace was shattered out in the middle of the lake as Charlie the Cormorant surfaced with a large eel, Mayhem ensued during which the eel got wrapped around Charlie's neck. I lost them then as they went under but I think the eel got away. Anyway Charlie came ashore for a wash and brush up and to explain it was this size guvnor.
  37. 2 points
    "Those of us who don't want november to be one long mild benign bore fest will like this run" If the November weather is like today, long may the "borefest" continue. If we can't get blizzards then let's have what we currently have rather than the usual wet and windy.
  38. 2 points
  39. 2 points
    If you think someone is trolling, report it rather than point it out publicly, it just serves to derail the thread And can we please drop this mildie -v- coldie nonsense please.
  40. 2 points
    Trolling? Not sure how.Just posting a potential option on the table. But as its not what coldies want to see no wonder it gets shot down...
  41. 2 points
    You'd need the Hubble telescope to find cold on the charts I'm looking at.
  42. 1 point
    CET November 1981-2010 averages and 1772-2014 extremes ______________________________________________________ Date ____ CET mean __ CET cum ____ MAX _________ MIN 01 Nov ___ 9.5 ______ 9.5 ________ 13.5 (1894,1982) __1.5 (1836) 02 Nov ___ 9.0 ______ 9.2 ________ 14.3 (1821) ______ 0.5 (1880) 03 Nov ___ 9.0 ______ 9.2 ________ 15.0 (1996) ______ 1.9 (1820) 04 Nov ___ 8.5 ______ 9.0 ________ 14.2 (1946) ______ 0.8 (1845&1848) 05 Nov ___ 8.3 ______ 8.9 ________ 15.4 (1938) ______ 0.8 (1802) 06 Nov ___ 8.2 ______ 8.7 ________ 13.4 (1772) ______ 0.6 (1868) 07 Nov ___ 8.3 ______ 8.7 ________ 13.4 (1772) _____ -0.6 (1791) 08 Nov ___ 8.7 ______ 8.7 ________ 13.4 (1852) _____ -1.2 (1812) 09 Nov ___ 8.1 ______ 8.6 ________ 12.5 (1988) _____ -0.5 (1921) 10 Nov ___ 7.9 ______ 8.6 ________ 13.4 (1977) ______ 0.1 (1812) 11 Nov ___ 8.3 ______ 8.5 ________ 13.0 (2005) ______ 0.3 (1828) 12 Nov ___ 8.2 ______ 8.5 ________ 13.8 (1938,1947)_ -1.4 (1919) 13 Nov ___ 7.2 ______ 8.4 ________ 14.6 (1938) _____ -1.1 (1862) 14 Nov ___ 6.8 ______ 8.3 ________ 13.4 (1938) _____ -1.1 (1925) 15 Nov ___ 6.8 ______ 8.2 ________ 13.5 (1821) _____ -2.1 (1965) 16 Nov ___ 6.8 ______ 8.1 ________ 13.4 (1997) _____ -2.9 (1901) 17 Nov ___ 6.4 ______ 8.0 ________ 13.1 (1997) _____ -2.0 (1841) 18 Nov ___ 6.7 ______ 7.9 ________ 12.2 (1978) _____ -1.6 (1887) 19 Nov ___ 6.4 ______ 7.9 ________ 12.7 (1994) _____ -2.1 (1815) 20 Nov ___ 6.2 ______ 7.8 ________ 12.8 (2009) _____ -1.2 (1829) 21 Nov ___ 5.8 ______ 7.7 ________ 13.7 (1947) _____ -1.4 (1880) 22 Nov ___ 5.8 ______ 7.6 ________ 14.4 (1947) _____ -2.3 (1773) 23 Nov ___ 5.8 ______ 7.5 ________ 13.3 (1947) _____ -4.2 (1858) 24 Nov ___ 5.9 ______ 7.4 ________ 12.7 (1980) _____ -4.6 (1904) 25 Nov ___ 6.3 ______ 7.4 ________ 12.1 (1964) _____ -1.5 (1923) 26 Nov ___ 6.2 ______ 7.3 ________ 12.1 (1983) _____ -1.7 (1904) 27 Nov ___ 6.0 ______ 7.3 ________ 11.3 (1818) _____ -2.6 (1915) 28 Nov ___ 5.8 ______ 7.2 ________ 12.0 (1828) _____ -4.0 (2010) 29 Nov ___ 5.5 ______ 7.2 ________ 12.2 (1818) _____ -2.6 (1801) 30 Nov ___ 5.8 ______ 7.1 ________ 12.4 (2001) _____ -1.7 (1973) _________________________________________________________________
  43. 1 point
    Went for a 3 hour walk on Rannoch Moor this afternoon, never added to the t-shirt I set off in. Bit bonkers for November, not a breath of wind most of the time and finally no ****ing midges!
  44. 1 point
    Another heating bill slasher from ECM tonight. An almost persistent SW -SSWly setting up after mid week, with the 10C 850 line a frequent visitor, and just the right spot to keep the winds up and hence the fog away. Expect several more days in the mid to high-teens before mid-month if this run is close to the month. A further week of this pattern after D10, and the November CET could be the next record under threat
  45. 1 point
    Rather than the slightly more serious model thread I'll put this in here as its about ramping too.......we know I'm calling for a month of two halves....so GFS 06z brings me a deep FI chart that looks like the possible pattern that brings the change I'm angling at.....looking forward to it to see if it happens around then but will enjoy the calm for now. BFTP
  46. 1 point
    Crazy temps over the last few days. Thursday evening it dropped to 4c, Friday night up to 17c. Currently 13.6c, calm and cloudy. We had a mini power cut on Friday night, off for about an hour. Plenty of candles on hand, plus oil lamps and torches. Then the internet crashed and has been playing up something terrible since. Spent a lot of time talking to BT in the hope it will sort itself out. It's been OK now for a whole thirty minutes! The joys of living in the Highlands and Islands!
  47. 1 point
    The GEFS anomalies this morning are not unfamiliar. The 6-10 has the ridging to the east, deep trough mid Atlantic resulting in warm south west stream lines. The 11-15 flattens the flow but weakens the trough and importantly retains the HP orientated more east west and still influencing most of the UK. How far north this influence extends is the key but so far so good with most of the movement of the Atlantic systems being tracked to the N. Does this morning's ops run reflect this. Pretty much. Although there is a fair bit of mobility as the warm and colder air jockey for position with occasional ingress of the former, generally speaking the warmer air wins out as can be seen by the charts at the end of the run which illustrate this quite well. And just to reiterate these charts are not being used as a forecast. Charts weatherbell and http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/
  48. 1 point
  49. 1 point
    Happy all hallows eve. Another very mild one,thats 3 out of 5 yrs. 2011, 2014 and now 2015,halloween has lost that autumnal feeling lately. Overcast here until early afternoon,now it is mostly clear and sunny. Current temp 15.5c ,got up to 15.9 a while ago. Last night low 13.7c. There is a decent chance of some fog tonight which should make it feel more seaonal if it happens.
  50. 1 point
    Hans Renssen has done a lot of research on past climate events in the N. Atlantic/Arctic region - an extensive list below. http://www.falw.vu/~renh/pub_list.html