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The Gfs 6z shows an unseasonably warm first week of november for the south of the uk with temps in the 16-19 celsius range which is very impressive for early november so you won't need a bonfire to keep you warm in the south on Nov 5th if the 6z is right.

It does look like we will shift the fronts away for the weekend, Saturday looks very mild or warm across a good part of the UK with sunny spells, Sunday looks fine again though with light winds there could be some mist and fog in places. Beyond that, no surprise that the majority consensus is for heights to remain over Europe with a south to south westerly flow dominating. This fits with the previous strong El nino state for now at least. So overall the outlook looks mild, possibly very mild as the high loses a little influence allowing an increasing breeze and rain for the north west. ECM ens No sign of any real change during the first week of November, for fun the GEM operational could potentially see 20C reached every day during the first week of November. An exceptional feat if that came off. It is certain possible given the current modelling at least.

Probably the same confidence that treats the MJO as the sole driver and predictor of the weather of a small island on the western edge of Europe.

Considering this is the end of October what exactly is that confidence based upon apart from the almost frenetic desire for cold weather?

I stopped reading at 'Metcheck', lol.

Yes certainly looks like a mild outlook on todays charts ,some high temp for late oct /early november but i am of the old school in the fact that Mother nature could swing the other way [no guarantee of course ] all very interesting stuff though certainly not boring and plenty to discuss on our forum . i,m going to take full advantage of our weather as things could change in a few weeks ,cheers

Here's some background information on El Nino and CET values that I reviewed as part of my winter forecast preparation. Using the SOI index 1876-2015 on the Australian (bom.au) site, I noted 25 previous El Nino events with a period of 5.5 years, and this would be the 26th one. If you wanted to say 1992 and 1994 were two separate peaks then this makes 26 previous, and this the 27th, period then drops to 5.3 years. Most of the El Nino events peak in the northern hemisphere winter months but a few peaked in the southern hemisphere winter. These I assigned to whichever northern hemisphere winter had the lower average regardless of which side of July 1st the peak occurred. There may be more frequent El Ninos if you counted some weak secondary cases, but as we tend to think of El Nino as a "seven year cycle" I erred on the side of longer intervals where cases seemed marginal. Then I analyzed CET temperatures for each year starting with n-2 (two years before the selected El Nino winter Jan 1), and ran the series for seven years although the 6th and 7th years would include some renewed El Nino peaks as the periodicity varies from 4 to 8 years (5,6,7 about equally likely). What I found was not overly compelling in terms of showing any real correlation between the SOI and the CET. However, the mean for the defined El Nino peak winter (this winter evidently, unless this one turns into something extreme over two years) shows temperatures slightly below normal in both December and January. There are relative minima of 3.2 on 10th Dec and 2.7 on 30th Jan. In between there is a bit of a mild spike just before New Years with daily means near 5.5 for three days. Otherwise, the data look very close to long-term normals much of the time. That is not meant to be a prediction for this particular winter, just the observation that SOI is not much of a predictor of temperatures. I had a look at all years in the six-year cycle generated before the data became so scattered by the variable SOI period that they had no further predictive potential. Not very much shows up at all, really. Each year has a few subtle warm and cold spells relative to CET normals, but there are very few days in the whole data set more than 1.0 deg away from the long-term averages. What this tells me is that events in the tropical Pacific, while no doubt very significant as predictors of climate around the western hemisphere and far eastern hemisphere, may "peter out" by the time they begin to interact with circulations over Europe and the eastern Atlantic. I also note that the colder turns in the defined peak winter contain one of the weakest El Nino candidates, 1946-47 in the data set. If you eliminate that case, the colder periods that I mentioned lose a bit of their already subtle distinctions. However, a big caveat emptor at the end -- I have yet to tackle the problem of different types of El Nino and trying to assess which other cases (besides 2009-10) are "Modoki" types. That might yield a different story, but here's the full list of peak El Nino (Jan) years in the data set -- do you see very many cold winters here? I don't, but at the same time, not that many very mild ones either. 1878,1883,1889,1896,1900,1905,1912,1915,1919,1926,1931,1937,1941,1947,1953,1958,1966,1973,1977, 1983,1987,1992 (1994) 1998,2005,2010 (I did not insert 2013-14 data into the file as I wanted to have the numbers available for predictive evaluation of years 1 and 2 of the series). If anyone has any questions about temperatures in any part of the derived series, fire away.

however this winter turns out, we have a very good positive anomaly of eurasian snow cover-

Yes i agree if it sat there for ages that would warrant being boring for some ,but i was referring to the fact that its where we go from there ,Remember two years ago when we had very boring charts forecast for ages then Bingo along came storms and bucket full of rain ,Thats what makes our forum tick ,so perhaps boring but with a twist of [The unknown],cheers

Not boring? A big HP sat there doing nothing and keeping the british isles relatively calm.......thats boring legritter.

Undoubtedly the Atlantic will break through at some point, but it is interesting to note, even this early in the season, that modelled Atlantic breakthroughs are failing. Last week, many were talking about the UK becoming a battleground - but instead, the euro block is now forecast to restrengthen. Now this could conceivable indicate a few things 1. The euro block is the driver for the coming period, and it may be underestimated by models at times 2. The Atlantic does not have strength in familiar zones for deepening lows so as to threaten the UK, so blocking could affect us from many different directions in future weeks or 3. it's just a temporary situation that will change in a couple of weeks All options are possible but option 2. does interest me - I've notice in the last couple of weeks that some lows have exploded shortly after exiting Canada, in the way they normally do on our side of the Atlantic. This has led to them tracking north sooner, and makes them less of a threat to any block that sits over us (could this be something to do with the cool ssts?). If this is actually a pattern that will continue into winter, it would be a friend to a Scandi/Siberian high pushing westwards, as less resistance would be offered. Could that happen?

Hi everyone! Despite the mild to very mild air it looks like it wont be always that mild ...! If Gfs and Ecm are correct it looks a fogfest for a good part of the nation come Sunday morning. So with clearing skies on Halloween plenty of scope for fog to develop widely under that moist, airmass, so even though the charts for November 1st look potentially very mild , Potentially there is some places that will stay under that mist and fog all day resulting in low surface temperatures.... After that the Ecm looks to be stirring things up a lot more than Gfs , ...

Thanks The Gfs 12z is really very mild indeed for the time of year across the south of the uk with air sourced from southern europe, actually mild is the wrong word, it's warm in the south this weekend and most of next week with max temps in the range of 17 / 19 c for the end of October & first week of November which is very impressive. Most of the uk has a largely fine outlook thanks to the strong Euro High but the far NW looks unsettled and windy at times next week and then even those areas become settled later in the run with pressure rising, this run is even more anticyclonic than the 6z.

The limpet Euro high looks like its going nowhere in a hurry, troughing comes and goes to the west but never sufficiently amplified or digging far enough south to help pull high pressure much further north to its east. That digging trough scenario looks like the only realistic way to bring some more seasonal temps given the overall NH pattern. There are some differences however between tonights UKMO and GFS at T144hrs, the former is more amplified and could edge the high a bit further north. ECM on its way out, its similar to the other outputs zzzzzzz!

cool frosty! good to have you back

Obviously a lot of respect for Cohen, but as with any LRF a degree of caution is required. Last year the strongest signal in the forecast was supposedly the October snow being the second highest on record, but the AO ended up being 10th highest on record since 1950/1 (NAO was highest). The forecast temperature anomaly pattern was remarkably good for north America, away from northeastern Canada, but the rest of the NH was largely wrong - this probably reflects failure of the AO forecast with other factors taken into consideration for a 'home audience' proving right for the US. Forecast and anomalies Actual anomalies

You're not the only one. I love properly defined seasons. What is so frustrating for me is how both January and June can have grey days with a maximum in the mid teens. Summer should be hot, winter should be cold. But that is an oceanic climate for you. What I'd really like is a moderate humid continental climate like say Poland. Proper seasons but not crazy extreme like say Siberia.

Now this is one squally thunderstorm. Impact town: Fernvale, just 40 miles from central Brisbane, yesterday. Several houses lost their roofs. This is usually an active time for severe storms in the subtropics. Australia highly likely to record it's hottest October on record for mean maximum temperature. Presently, hundreds of weather sites across most states are registering a record. If realised this will beat the previous record set only last year. The anomaly in Victoria in particular this month has been staggering.

I backed up what I said with charts and have a look at some of the posts following mine, the Euro high is here to stay for the foreseeable keeping us in a mild flow.

dismal and tedious...that's all I have to say on the current weather.

The euro high has to be the from horse for the duration of the next few months with a very strong Nino in place in my opinion. A very mild even warm set up in the reliable term and possibly lasting into the second half of November and beyond.

I still believe the high will migrate North, ensembles are starting to pick up on this - next few days could be interesting...

I find it strange how there are some members who have voted for the same season in each category... For me, as a coldie, winter wins hands down. But I do like autumn and spring. I despise summer. Especially when it's hot. But even when it isn't hot, you still get irritating insects and sunburn. The only redeeming feature for me is the occasional thunderstorm, but they really are occasional.

FI ensembles are starting to look interesting again...lots of blocking and some split PV...11 out of the 20 hold some interest for coldies.

Let's start with this I assume you plucked 1970 out of the air. In reality G.M.B. Dobson set up a chain of measuring stations using his spectrophotometer in the 1930s. Systematic measurements using this were started in 1957 in Antarctica. The interest at the time was it could be used as a tracer of atmospheric circulation at high levels. In 1973 Lovelock on a cruise in Antarctic water found that CFCs were accumulating in the lower atmosphere but he assumed they constituted no conceivable hazard. But in 1974 Molina and Rowland pointed out that CFCs would be photolysed to yield active chlorine, which in turn would destroy ozone. Fast forward to 1984 when BAS observations detected a catastrophic fall in the deep minimum with values down a third on the 1957-77 values. Cutting a long story short which various governments did as well this led to the Montreal Protocol of 1987. Now we obviously don't know the ozone levels earlier than this but it's totally irrelevant as the science that led to the Protocol is well established and we were on course to an unmitigated disaster. But don't let that stop you indicating what the natural processes could be that just happened to coincide with the above. I find your determination to ignore the science for an airy fairy notion of it might be down to natural causes far more revealing. Afraid not. It was always known that CFCs had a long lifetime in the atmosphere which is why action was taken so quickly. There is nothing particularly surprising about the current situation as there will always be yearly fluctuations due to atmospheric processes. Frankly given your philosophy the MP would never have been signed which is straight out of the deniers handbook of let's wait 30 years to see what happens. And if you are going to question established science then it would be appreciated if you would produce some scientific rebuttal or else this area will return to the bad old days.

It has been an incredibly boring Autumn so far here. In fact, between 29th August and now there hasn't been a maxima lower than 11.7C or higher than 19.8C. The only plus side is that it has been rather dry overall. I like an Autumn with variety, both warm and cold spells (obviously with the warmer spells in the first half and colder in the second), but this year has just been 12-19C every day and looks like continuing for a while yet. The only point of interest is we could threaten the high maximum in November but that's about it.

Oh dear, you have much to learn. lol. I reallyy wouldnt take a blind bit of notice of them even though you say not seriously. The default winter will always alternate between something colder and milder. No surprise to see those 6 months forecasts do that. But as we are struggling to predict a week away in any time of the year, you have little hope with Metcheck's 6 motnhs forecast.

Hi Roger Far more indepth than the 'test' I ran myself a couple of years ago but the end result very similar. What I saw through the 20th century was that there was no weighting for any winter type. It broke even for cold, mild and average over the 100 years so for me it wasn't a predictor for UK winter BFTP

Here's how the 06z GFS currently sees the first 6 days of November 12.9C to the 1st (12.9: +3.5) [Record high: 13.5C] 13.0C to the 2nd (13.1: +4.1) 13.1C to the 3rd (13.3: +4.2) 13.2C to the 4th (13.7: +5.2) [Record high: 14.2C] 13.3C to the 5th (13.5: +5.2) 13.4C to the 6th (14.0: +5.8] [Record high: 13.4C] 13.4C to the 6th is a whopping 4.7C above the 81-10 average, and would be by far the mildest first 6 days of November on record (next mildest is 12.2C in 1996). With this in mind, I'm going to up my guess to 8.0C.

Lets please keep discussion to what the Models are showing, Not personal preferances on weather types. Thanks, PM.

looking at the archive charts for nov 78 one can see plenty HP over europe and many of the charts looked rather dire for cold lovers that month but what a winter it did turn out to be. Not saying that is what will happen this winter but im hopefull of a decent winter overall this year.

11.0c to the 27th 0.1c above the 61 to 90 average 0.1c above the 81 to 10 average

I would love a cold/very cold xmas to new yr period too even if there was no snow. I love frosty weather and after snow is my next fav weather type. Getting weather like that in the lastt week of dec would be very seasonal even without snow. xmas 1995 for example was very much like that at my location, no snow but very cold and frosty.

Nope, me too! Not a fan of warm southerlies in autumn, mild wet southwesterlies in winter, easterlies in spring or northwesterlies in summer. Don't mind a bit of stormy spillover into December but by midmonth I'll be looking for weather from the northwest-southeast quadrant and/or cold anticyclones. After this balmy start to November, I'm hoping the weather gets its act together with some Atlantic storms.

Not sure what area of the country you're looking at. Latest for London doesn't really show this.

Just moved (likely temporarily) to Cashel, so a slightly better snow potential than where I have been. Hopefully the Atlantic cold pool can regather itself for winter. Just thinking back to the stormy winter of 2013/2014, and all the heavy cold rain/sleet that fell then. How much could have been snow if the Atlantic had been a few degrees cooler?

Let's not worry yet. If it were January I'd be worried by fortunately it's not and these patterns rarely last longer than a fortnight without change. It does seem a cooler more unsettled regime takes hold into week 2 (w/c 9th); it's only really a matter of time until the Atlantic breaks through.

The cold enthusiast part of me is revolted by what's showing for the next couple of weeks, but the work part of my brain is delighted!

im quite excited about this winter as im moving house soon. il be further north, further out in the country and higher up. my new house is 120mts asl. so i should deffo do a little better than usual esp in those marginal setups. it will be at least 0.5c colder where im going which could make all the difference!

Nope. I love the seasons, each has it's unique charm and each has it's pros and cons. The only problem, for me, is that in our country they aren't as pronounced/defined as I'd like. I'd love a truly four-seasons climate - somewhere like Maine.

No. I'm loving it. Keeps the hell period away for longer. Unless it snows proper I don't give two hoots about winter!

Whilst looking for something else I came across this interesting passage from Climate: Past, Present and Future by Hubert Lamb Hay (1967) found that strong westerlies and a deep centre of low monthly mean pressure near Iceland in October usually precede mild, westerly winters in Britain. Enhanced frequency of northerly weather, with the low pressure centred over the region between the Norwegian Sea and the Kara Sea, in October tends to be followed by cold or rather cold in England with continued excess of northerly wind components. More can be found here: https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=kUe0AAAAQBAJ&pg=PA296&lpg=PA296&dq=weather+lore+warm+october&source=bl&ots=1rVzOi_og0&sig=hiRb9HQi60CiA6-2H-APtp8aBVI&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0CEsQ6AEwCWoVChMIu6aqloTjyAIVxW0UCh2ALgaw#v=onepage&q&f=false Also, a strange but curious fact....in 1677 a law was passed that any Weather Seers shall be burned at the stake. It has been repealed so you're all safe, but not until 1959!!

Indeed. Should be 21C+

I am so upset,really thought 300ft snowdrifts were a dead cert. C.S Is that picture of Steve Murr on his winter vacation LOL C.S

Caution with MJO assessment currently however... as UKMO note: "...MJO not having much predictive value at present. Models had been suggesting that it should be emerging into Phase 1 by now (and into Phase 2 subsequently), however confidence in this was always low due to contamination from tropical storms messing up the OLR assimilation."

I don't think you could have anything more going on in the Pacific right now, this Nino winter is less than boring. Nor is it without many sub-plots. Re GWO now on downward tendency as MJO initiates. Studies show MJO waves to travel more quickly in ENSO years,, not without there impacts. Decent amplitude visible on the VP anomalies however, the speed of travel / degrade is of interest. Bonfire night sees progression move to circle of doom time will tell for it's depart and then re-appearance time frame, also the impacts much further up in the atmosphere provide intrigue. 2 tests of academia now - the MJO coupling and effects on Vortex Formation / Intensificaton , further to that the impact of the Strat Trop pathway vs the qQBO, lots to look out for this season...

I think that judgement on the current IO MJO wave amplification and how far east this travels need to be watched carefully. We may see some over enthusiastic forecasts regarding stage 3, but the risk is that these may get dampened down as we get closer in timeframe - much like FI strat forecasts. If, and this is a big if, we see the MJO reach phase 3 in some kind of amplified state during November, then there is the possibility that this decoupling with the El Nino may have some ramifications regarding early December - an increase in wave 2 activity could occur leading to a greater meridional flow affecting the Atlantic sector. If the MJO wave gets overwhelmed by the strong EN, then a more traditional EN winter pattern may ensue. Certainly, an interesting few weeks watching the MJO coming up.

Thank you - as always - for your thoughts Tamara. It's a shame solar activity has been so feeble over the past 6 months or so as high activity would have in theory mitigated the possible impact of the westerly QBO. I'll put the Indian Ocean SST forcing to one side for the time being (though I'm still going to check out those warm IO + El Nino analogues out of interest). I'm fascinated by the nature of this basin-wide El Nino and it's potential implications. The U.S. to Hawaii band of +ve SST anomalies is also setting my mind whirring. A basin-wide super El Nino with benefits? Alas, there's a particularly terrible side-effect of this event due to slam into the western coast of Mexico today; Category 5 hurricane Patricia with top sustained winds of 200 mph gusting to 245 mph. Yes, you read that right! Thoughts go out to those in the firing line - the NHC are making good use of the word 'catastrophic' this morning.

In Conclusion: We are essentially in uncharted territory since at least 1950 in terms of a basin wide El Nino event of this strength, when combined with a warm Indian Ocean, very warm waters compared to Hawaii to California and a very warm N. Pacific. However, there is evidence that the warm Indian Ocean may act to cause somewhat more MJO activity that what is common during stronger El Nino winters, and in general, the warmer waters elsewhere in the East Pacific tended to pull the Aleutian low farther west when compared with other moderate to strong basin wide El Nino events. This suggests that a +PNA may become more likely as the winter goes on, after Pacific air likely floods a good portion of the CONUS in December. In general, basin wide El Nino winters favor a negative NAO as you head farther into winter, although not as strongly as modoki events. The three moderate to strong basin wide El Nino events since 1950 that had a +QBO as we’ll have this winter featured decent AO/NAO blocking by February, after a warm December and up and down January. Research done on October snow advance in Eurasia by Dr. Judah Cohen and on October N. Pacific sea level pressure by Al Marinaro both suggest that trends this month also support a –AO/NAO this winter. In general, a rising +PNA could limit California/west coast rainfall by later in winter. Hopefully they’re very active before then, as they desperately need the rain. The eastern US looks cold/active for the second half of winter, after a potentially very slow start. The potential bust factor here revolves around how the Nino behaves. Other basin wide El Nino events with such a warm Indian Ocean (1987-88, 2002-03) saw more MJO activity than normal for stronger EL Nino winters, which likely contributed to a favorable pattern for eastern US snow. If this event becomes more strongly east based, this may not be able to occur. Another overall question mark is if all of the correlations discussed, small sample size for some of them notwithstanding, hold up with such a strong El Nino. We may learn quite a bit this winter…hopefully not at the expense of this forecast. Analogs, based on good SST matches globally and QBO: 1957-58, 1987-88 (2), 2002-03, 2006-07 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47089-my-2015-2016-winter-outlook/ A winter forecast from the States. When you sign in, you got the possibility to see the charts.

Here's a preliminary forecast for the winter, but I am continuing to look at some leads on a final forecast that I hope to publish around mid-November. It may be similar to this. I can also mention that I discussed this with "Blast from the Past" and he is of a similar opinion but also wanting to give things a later assessment. This post will simply give the forecast as we see it now, reasoning will be added to any final version. First of all, we expect November to be variable and average near normal for temperatures and precipitation. Expect a wide variety of weather types and one or two rather windy days but also a lot of anticylonic weather. December and some part of January (at least the first half) will probably be mild more often than cold, but with spells of anticyclonic weather bringing quiet perhaps foggy conditions, and somewhat colder temperatures interspersed with milder southwesterly flows and possibly one or two stormy periods. If these storms develop, they would likely be followed by several days of northerly flow, local hill snow and gradually moderating temperatures. Later in January and for some part of February, more significant blocking appears likely, and we think there may be a spell of significant and perhaps extreme cold. Snow would be more likely in the south and central counties with this set-up. This colder pattern is not likely to reverse itself quickly and it may just fade out through March. We will revisit this forecast in November and give a final version with some of the reasoning added. At this point, would just say that we feel the El Nino will not overwhelm the closer and therefore more significant cold Atlantic signal. However, we don't think that it will completely fail to interact with the Atlantic and European patterns, which is the main reason for thinking there could be perhaps one or even two significant windstorms as there were in Dec 1997. Watch for an update in mid-November.