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Thanks Its fun yes, and also very mind-heavy. Not to mention the vast amounts of patience it takes, when you come to the point when after 2 hours of work your computer freezes while rendering and loading data, and you dont know if it will un-feeze and finish the job, or you just have to kill the process and start all over again. With my old comp the usual solution was to kill the process and start over until it freezes again and then you kill it again and start over and it freezes again and so on. And each time you change the configuration a bit, reducing the quality or sample size and subsets, hoping it will work and load, but it just doesnt cut it. You just cant drive 200mph with an old 1.2l engine, now can you. So I decided to upgrade my 1.2 engine from 3GB RAM which I almost fried on many occasions, and a 2.4Ghz Intel proc. and a 256MB graphic card, to a 2.0 16v turbo engine. AsRock H81 mother board Intel i7-4770 @3.9Ghz Turbo 16GB Dual channel DDR3 RAM 1600mhz (2x8GB) Gigabyte GeForce GTX-750ti 2GB VRAM System disk SSD 150GB HD SATA 2TB Windows 10 64bit Its not the best comp out there, but together with a full HD 22" monitor and a gaming mouse/keyboard and a full 5-year warranty, it wasnt a bad deal for 800 quid. Now I am really having fun making plots, especially 3D. full 3D animations are my next goal.

I've posted it before but do so again as it might be of interest to new folk, my comments on the 62-63 winter working just south of Nottingham. admin/mods please delete if it is too long. Data for RCAF Langar for the 1962-1963 winters, with a comparison with 1947 (Temperatures are all in deg C) Langar is about 10 miles ese of Nottingham in a slight ‘bowl’ with minor hills all around it. The diary as such starts on December 26th 1962 and finishes at the end of February 1963. General notes The ground was snow covered continuously (Met Office definition for =/>half cover) for 44 days from 26.12.62 until 8.2.63 (At my parent’s house near Chesterfield, Derbyshire that was extended until 27th February, A total of 63 days). The ground at Langar was continuously frozen from 22nd December 1962 until 4th March 1963, a total of 63 days. There was an air frost on every night, apart from 4, between 22nd December 1962 and 4th March 1963. (The only nights without frost were; 5.6.28 and 29th January) There were 32 consecutive nights with frost from 1st February 1963 to 4th March 1963. And there was a continuous frost(air temperature constantly below 0C) from 1500Z on 18th January 1963 until 0900Z on 26th January 1963(186 hours); put another way, almost a WHOLE week!! There was 3.73 inches of rain (and melted snow) from 1 October 1962 to 28 February 1963 This = 38% of the average. Monthly figures for the start of the cold spell on 22nd December 1962 Date min max mean 22 -4.4 2.2 -1.1 23 -6.1 0.6 -2.8 24 -9.3 0.0 -4.7 25 -11.8 -3.9 -7.9 26 -11.1 2.2 -4.5 27 -1.4 1.1 -0.2 28 -7.7 -2.2 -5.0 29 -5.1 -1.7 -3.4 30 -1.7 0.0 -0.9 31 -0.6 0.6 0.0 Mean temp for 10 days = -3.0C Values for January 1963 Date min max mean 1 -0.1 0.7 0.3 2 -1.3 -0.6 -1.0 3 -0.7 0.5 -0.1 4 -0.1 1.0 0.5 5 0.6 1.1 0.9 6 1.1 1.8 1.5 7 -3.5 1.3 -1.1 8 -5.7 0.7 -2.5 9 -8.0 1.3 -3.4 10 -6.6 1.5 -2.6 11 -10.4 -5.0 -7.7 12 -5.4 -3.3 -4.4 13 -8.3 0.0 -4.2 14 -1.4 2.8 0.7 15 -7.7 2.3 -2.7 16 -2.7 0.0 -1.4 17 -9.2 -2.1 -5.7 18 -13.8 0.9 -6.5 19 -5.9 -0.3 -3.1 20 -3.3 -0.8 -2.1 21 -4.1 -1.4 -2.8 22 -13.6 -3.4 -8.5 23 -15.4 -3.3 -9.4 24 -12.2 -5.6 -8.9 25 -8.6 -0.6 -4.6 26 -6.2 5.3 -0.5 27 -3.9 2.3 -0.8 28 0.5 2.4 1.5 29 1.4 2.9 2.2 30 0.1 1.3 0.7 31 -1.7 2.5 0.4 Mean temp for month = -2.4C Values for February Date min max mean 1 -3.5 -0.7 -2.1 2 -9.8 -3.5 -6.7 3 -6.7 -4.1 -5.4 4 -10.2 1.6 -4.3 5 -8.4 0.2 -4.1 6 -3.7 -0.7 -2.2 7 -1.6 1.6 0.0 8 0.0 2.9 1.5 9 -1.7 2.9 0.6 10 -1.4 1.7 0.2 11 -1.8 0.6 -0.6 12 -0.1 2.1 1.0 13 -0.7 4.1 1.0 14 -2.6 1.7 -0.5 15 -0.1 1.2 0.6 16 -1.9 0.4 -0.8 17 -1.7 1.7 0.0 18 -1.7 2.2 0.3 19 -1.5 0.3 0.6 20 -4.8 2.6 -1.1 21 -3.9 4.1 0.1 22 -2.1 2.8 0.4 23 -2.8 1.9 -0.5 24 -6.7 0.6 -3.1 25 -9.8 2.2 -3.8 26 -5.2 4.8 -0.2 27 -4.6 2.8 -0.9 28 -3.3 5.4 1.1 Mean temp for month = -1.1C Mean temp for January and February = -1.7C The average minimum for the whole 69 days=-4.9C Comparison of temperatures at Langar between 1947 and 1963 1947 January avge min=-1.0 avge max=3.5 mean=1.3 1963 January avge min=-5.0 avge max=0.2 mean=-2.4 1947 February avge min=-4.2 avge max=1.5 mean=-2.3 1963 February avge min=-3.7 avge max=1.8 mean=-0.9 So for the two months being compared 1947 showed a mean temp of -0.5 and 1963 gave -1.7C I cannot get data for frosts and snow for 1947 but for 1963 these were; days with snow falling= 20 in Jan and 19 in Feb; lying snow=31 in Jan and 19 in Feb. Air frosts in January were 26 and 27 in February. To add some comments on the above data. I lived in a centrally heated block with just a short walk to the dining and recreation area. Life was lived in short sleeves mostly with the bedroom window open a notch as the heating was so hot. Underground pipes went from the boiler house to all the buildings and snow/ice free areas showed their path. Once off the station then life showed up very differently, buses ran but occasionally stopped due to the intense cold, roads were usually passable in the Langar area. However, on my journeys home this was not the case. Although snowfall was not as high in terms of depth as 1947, some roads were impassable at times during blizzards when the winds picked up. Snow that fell in late December was still being blown around in February along with new falls. Data from Finningley shows it snowed on 40 out of 66 possible days from 26 December to 29 February. Thus the Chesterfield area may well have had a slightly higher figure. I do remember feeling very cold in bed at my parents with just one main fire in the house. Frost persisted throughout the day on windows away from the kitchen. When the snow started to thaw I did manage to drive my father’s car on to the nearest high ground, about 1,000ft up and some 6-7 miles from our house. The main road was a ‘tunnel’ with snow piled over 12-15 feet on each side of the road. So another tale of a severe winter which I have experienced. Just the 1947 one to try and dig some relevant data out. Sadly a diary I know my father kept has been lost. to end= NINETEEN ICE DAYS that winter at Langar, not sure how many at RAF Finningley, I'll have a look. only (!) 12

First amplification in a long time forecast - into the Indian Ocean for late October/November - that translates to trough domination and current NWP reflecting this. ECM monthly forecast November >1 composite. Much will depend on where it goes next - certainly outwith the behaviour seen in '97 but it will please those who are seeing shades of 2009. 1997 2009

Finally managed to animate my new 3D test matrix for SSW events. In this example is the 2009 SSW event, showing the 150mb geopotential height on the bottom, and the polar vortex in 3D, from 1mb to 150mb, showing the vortex split and complete disintegration of the upper, mid and bottom strat vortex. I think it is also appropriate for beginners in this field, to help them understand how an SSW event looks in "real life", since grasping this field from 2D maps alone is not that easy. Or it is at least to show what happens to the strat vortex during the event. If this matrix proves to be stable, I will be able to run it for any SSW you may want to see. Also going to add the 2009 SSW sequence done in my old matrix. Some improvements are seen in the new matrix above, like a new design, better resolution, new color schemes, and overall a different 3D "engine" than in this older version, for which the matrix I have lost anyway.

The run-to-run consistency has tanked over the past couple of days. Flicking from GFS 00z to 06z to 12z det. runs does not inspire much confidence in the evolution beyond +120 or so. Interesting to see that the MJO amplified majorly in the same phases in 2009 as is expected this year. I say that not so much because of the winter that followed but because in 2009 the Atlantic storms kept on coming up against blocking highs well east of the UK. A couple of examples: ...and this led to a very wet outcome for parts of the UK, with my own observed total ranking the highest in all months going back to 2000 at an astonishing 242 mm for the month. It also betrayed the blocked tendency of the patterns leading up to that winter. The point for the near-term though is that as much as the MJO composites signal for a trough to dominate, it also allows for blocking to our east and northeast to hold up the storms and bring slow moving frontal rain plus a lot of showers in the return polar maritime winds - especially across the southwest and south. They were a major contributor to the extreme totals I experienced that month - I can recall thunder on several occasions. So this is essentially a heads up that after two months of predominantly dry weather with only brief interruptions, November could be about to swing the pendulum very far the other way... But I must emphasise the 'could' in that statement

Well, I dont have the time for detailed explanations unfortunately, even tho I would love to write it, but instead, i decided to show you how GFS FI looks like in a more realistic way, so you can imagine it. basically where and how is the stratospheric vortex connected with the tropospheric one. In the transition zone between 150 to 300mb, the tropospheric effects start to get into play, so the game there is from both sides. but basically looking from 1mb down to 150mb (like where I made this 3D display), you get the clear idea where the main energy goes and where the two entities are connected. At least I hope that it gets the message across. So as you can see, the main tropospheric extension of the strat vortex is actually the double feature, one over Siberia and the other in E'rn Canada. Looks like a "shoe", or where does the P.V. stand in the troposphere. Added jet stream on these two.

Are there any reasonable links about this, rather than spammy, tabloidish websites? I wonder if this is, yet again, climate change deniers twisting the suggestion of prosecuting those who deliberately and knowingly peddle lies for pay into "they want to jail all sceptics"?

Well it would certainly make life interesting Ed. A strong wave push through the maritime would generate a stark pressure gradient across the Asian massif and inject a surge of westerlies across the Pacific. That would normally amplify the tropospheric wave pattern, and probably set about feedback loops in the stratosphere. Intuitively that would suggest wave breaking through Alaska and counter to the El Niño expectation. But that is highly speculative at this stage, as the main issue will be the destructive forcing from ENSO w/r/t the MJO around phases 3 and 4 through 5 and 6, which so far this summer and autumn has been spectacularly effective.

what a wimp! I would think it preferrable, to me at any rate, to being chucked up and down 30-40 feet in mid Atlantic!

Talking of bitter cold. Dec 2010 anyone? Actually though its not quite as cold as the H500 pattern suggest but still cold though.

If ever there was a project worthy of crowd-sourcing some cash, it would be to buy you a super duper computer to make those 3D animations.....let us know when you need to start collecting :-) By the way, the graphics you made did make the Atlantic look really "cool!" in the other sense.

Sorry to be pedantic but a HP cell can not retrogress from the west. Retrogression means to go against the prevailing flow (or backwards if you like) which, in the NH is W-E. Therefore for a high to retrogress it needs to head E-W.

Which tallies with an eastward forecast shift in (negative anomaly) upper level velocity potential: Week 2 MJO forecast definitely showing some coherence in the Indian Ocean and GFS simulated products picking this up: This MJO wave is not without some considerable interest. If it manages to stay coherent over the next few weeks, and propagate eastwards, angular momentum will ramp up again, and give more assistance to surface warming in the central Equatorial Pacific. Lots of interest also to see whether October's MEI value breaks the magic +3SD only achieved by 1982 and 1997.

And a rather dodgy reading if I recall. There was a suggestion it could have coincided with the back wash from a jet engine. I share your scepticism. But back on track. I would like the autumn to continue cool and settled, gradually cooling until a brief stormy period in the latter days of November ushers in a cold and snowy December. Then sunshine over the frozen landscape for Christmas and New Year. More snow in January, another couple of weeks of cold High Pressure, a snow top up in Feb and a gradual warm up starting in March.

So, have you ever wondered how exactly would N Atlantic look like if you would pump out all the water? Well, its one big mountain range (MAR - Mid Atlantic Ridge). It gives you a feeling and a different perspective about how it interact with the ocean currents and AMOC, perhaps kinda like mountains do with atmospheric flow.

That's the gefs picking up the Scandi block holding back the Atlantic aswell then knocks. Like I said last night, how far across us any breakdown gets is the question I would be asking. The last break had some systems coming from way to our South west which gave quite a deluge before the block pushed back. This time, it seems the push comes from the developing vortex over eastern Canada. unlikely to be so moist and could easily swing ne or slide se against the blocking to our East.EDIT: the 12z ECM eps bring the troughing further east than previous runs and takes the UK completely under the the Atlantic influence with the blocking more scrussian than sceuro.

Time to get the Violins out John..☺

Given that nobody knows (and the broadscale seasonal issues are yet even to be adequately resolved) , it's not a question of 'is it even possible', it's more a question of how utterly ridiculous it is to even show such a meaningless metric. Ignore.

Can we try and keep posts in their correct threads please? Several above are more suited to the winter thread rather than the model, or am I in a minority here? Nothing wrong with the discussion though.

The day 10 chart shows no raging PV developing , if anything it looks like heights may start building over NE Canada and Greenland - on this run that is!!

I don't quite see it that way knocks. Looks to me that the block migrates towards Scandi after day 10 but the Atlantic influence is subsequently headed into Europe as it comes up against that block. Whether that happens across the UK or to the west of the UK currently unknown. Tbh, it isn't too dissimilar to what we've seen recently where the modelled Atlantic onslaught was temporary and fairly quickly rebuffed by the the Scandi ridge extending west.

Hello again. Will be popping in here from time to time to see how things are progressing over the coming days and weeks as ever and whether it will lead to a much anticipated/hoped-for BIG FREEZE will be the one hundred million dollar question. Across the nearby continent, this week should see some brief snowfall as far West as parts of Germany and to boot, it was expected to be rather heavy in nature, last I heard. I'm pleased with the dry signal right now over the UK and the trending colder than normal Autumn over much of our part of the globe, bodes well at least for the first part of Winter I'd suggest. Onwards and upwards.

You wait.... The CFS charts will be showing it's self soon...........sod it! have this

Of course talk of criminalization is a nonsense but when you consider that the climate pundits for the Telegraph, Sun. Mail, and Times are Booker, Delingpole, Rose and Ridley then locking them in the Tower for the deliberate dissemination of lies and subversive activity seems extremely attractive.

this 'snow' people post about in here...an fascinating concept....does it really happen in real life?

Really like what you have done with a home based computer. Once upon a time far in the distant past I was an Oceanographer, so I can appreciate how much time and effort you have put into completing this task. Watching the SST closely and awaiting the results from Rapid's latest sail. Interesting and uncertain times ahead.

I doubt that would actually become law and I have no problem if people question climate change based on scientific evidence, rather than because they apparently know so much more from sitting in their armchair (odd how people don't do this so much with doctors and various other professions?). Unfortunately this post is a good example, as, sorry but I am going to have to correct your paragraph which is pretty incorrect. If you actually study Quaternary climate in depth, is very hard to try and suggest it hasn't been caused by man. The orbital forgings that lead to the glacial-interglacial cycles and associated greenhouse gas and temperature trends, especially for interglacials, are relatively well understood. Each interglacial is different, however temperature trends can generally be explained by trends in orbital forcing and associated factors. Typically, as shown in your graph the current pattern of interglacials (apart from MIS-11, the first interglacial in the graph) feature an early peak in temperature coinciding with insolation maxima in the northern Hemisphere, before gradually declining as summer isolation declines. Greenhouse gases also follow this early peak and then decline with insolation. This also occurred during the 'Holocene climatic optimum' and the Holocene fits this pattern of orbital forcing. Apart from the fact we have recently departed from this normal trend for temperature and especially CO2. Indeed the Holocene has recently become unique in now having a relatively rapid warming when other indicators suggest the Earth should in the long term be gradually cooling.. except for greenhouse gas levels. Further, carbon isotopes provide very strong evidence that the hugely anomalous CO2 levels have been released via burning of fossil fuels.. rather than from natural sources. It would therefore be interesting to see the sources of your knowledge and also which temperature reconstruction that graph shows. Some of what you say is somewhat true in that if you ignore causes, there is nothing unusual in the scale of predicted warming relative to glacial-interglacial changes, and it is also true that some previous interglacials were up to a few degrees warmer, but we are adjusted to the current climate and if we jumped to that warmth naturally or anthropogenically, the associated climate change and sea level rise would cause similar problems.. If we somehow experienced an abrupt change on the scale of glacial-interglacial changes we would be in even more trouble.. indeed past changes caused the expansion and collapse of the ranges of many species. But anyway, relating to the topic of this thread I would imagine this is not true.. and no I don't believe it should be criminal (unless important organisations do it while ignoring evidence..) however inversely, the fact that Florida banned state officials from using the term 'climate change' and 'global warming' along with others is sadly true.

i tried pointing this out last year and when I lived in North America...many areas of the US and Canada have had some very warm winters recently(some record breaking ) including the last 2 but this never gets mentioned and is swept under the carpet or lost in the hype of areas which were cold and very snowy..some posters were gleefully trumpeting America had had one of its coldest winters on record..when in fact in reality it was one county in new Hampshire or something like that...anyway I doubt there will be any record breaking cold in North America this winter. The continent is much more influenced by ElNino than we are...above average and relatively dry for the northern half of the USA and Canada is my call for this winter.

Be careful here on the longer term charts ( plus 10 days out) showing a change which assumes the conclusion and proves the datum of another. Conversely, as we have seen during the past 2 winters, the promise of cold synoptical charts are always in the outer reaches of delivering and never materialize. Presently we have a block holding much longer than normal and there remains no great evidence to be blown away by the Atlantic Jet. C

So, broad continuity continues with overall themes (milder start to season; potential switch to colder/blocked 2nd half), but do bear in mind - as I was at pains to stress this evening when discussing this stuff on-air - that it's only 13 October; still much water to run under the bridge; plus the Seasonal Team at Exeter are yet to summarise the current output into public domain for D-J-F probabilistic purposes. The difficulty into 2nd half of winter is compounded, of course, by the fact that even a strong SSW signal yields only circa 2 weeks reliable lead time in GS5 - something no seasonal forecast can adequately accommodate at this range and still profess to be 'reliable' (not that D Express et al care). This, plus a variety of key, combining imponderables this winter in terms of global drivers, means waiting until nearer the start of December before pinning hats on where GS5, or for that matter EC Seasonal model, is presently taking us. Either way, it's an interesting and challenging period unfolding for the good folk at Hadley Centre.

Surely it is better to say it was a winter of extreme contrasts in temperature rather than the equally misleading claim that it was, as a whole, very warm.

I think we have a similar discussion every year, but here goes. I upvoted the comment because essentially I agree it is always good to be reminded that the models lose accuracy pretty quickly beyond day 5 and we should never take one run in isolation and use that as a guide, especially if it goes against the anomaly forecasts etc. Also excellent guide to the available tools for different time-frames. "But" By the same token we should not use anomaly charts etc in isolation and dismiss operational runs that show something different, especially if there is any support from control runs or other models at all because no one tool is perfectly accurate and an hi res operational run will pick up on a potential pattern change that anomaly forecasts will not. It doesn't happen that often but when it does we simply see the ensemble and anomaly charts "flip". So really it depends on whether we wish to speculate on potential changes or make probability forecasts and personally I think there is more than room enough for all approaches and it is what makes the MO thread in winter so entertaining (and exasperating for some I'm sure ) You are not hallucinating Knocker I think the discussion is more about the scope of the change and with it being quite far out people are entitled to say high pressure will be in charge for the foreseeable. That high will come under pressure from a trough digging down from the NW as we get toward last week of October but this has been on the cards and discussed for some time. The real question is how far south will the trough get and what will we get upstream? Is this a full breakdown into typical zonal fare or will the pattern quickly reamplify? So far my thoughts have been that there is no evidence that this transition into a more unsettled regime is the start of an Atlantic onslaught and currently I think that is still the case but the models have not yet picked up any particular pattern zonal or blocked for FI so it is pure speculation. The anomaly charts don't really help us here (at the moment that is - though they should as the models settle down and favour a particular synoptic) because they are simply showing the transitional period of declining high pressure over the UK - that does not mean we are going zonal, it just means that the overall signal has a trough affecting the UK around the 8-11 day range. Currently the models are playing around with dropping a trough into Scandi which may well allow heights to rebuild in the Atlantic a little further down the line although that is where the other longer range tools John mentions come into use. Conversely we have seen them try to build a Scandi high and bring an Atlantic trough and there is a faint + height anomaly over Scandinavia in your chart. This is the biggest issue with anomaly charts because they are not that useful for forecasting "What happens next" when the models are in a state of flux as any signal is muted. It is better to manually check through the model output and ensembles and look for plausible patterns as a clue and remember that the anomaly charts are built on that output. That is why I say there is room for all approaches, so long as they are based on MO, and it makes for some good discussion on what we may be facing in FI. They all have their strengths and weaknesses and then we have some very informed and articulate members who can bring all the massive array of information together and try to make sense of it instead of waffling on like I just have, sorry. So yeah we may face a more unsettled spell as we head toward/into last week of October but I don't think we have a good signal as to what comes next as yet and this is where the speculation, alternative views are all good discussion. Don't hang your hat on a typical zonal pattern setting up just yet Knocker.

No, a denier is one who denies that human activity is/will cause global warming or other climate change. Anyway, I'm not sure what is more silly: 1) the person who made the silly comment about making climate science denial a crime 2) the media for their misleading sensationalist headlines implying that it is a serious proposal or 3) the so-called sceptics who are up in arms/panicking because they thnk everyone who accepts climate science wants to see them arrested and locked up for life .... It's not a new Monty Python sketch is it?

My grandmother was 23 and had given birth to her third child 2 years before. Four members in my family who were around for that winter. Only my grandmother can remember it though - the other three were aged 4, 3 and 2 respectively (yes, my grandmother was a busy bee). My grandfather was 28, but is now sadly departed. It will be sad when that generation leave for good, and their memories will only be available in written form. I'm happy to have heard stories of the door-high snow drifts of 1947 from people who experienced it first-hand. Maybe when I'm elderly, I will tell my grandchildren stories of December 2010.

I could also handle most of winter being super duper as long as we got one huge fall like Jan 87 or Feb 91, something approaching a foot, just one event, even if it didn't last more than a week as long as it was a proper crippler and not a half hearted one.

I loved 62/3 Pete. Mind you i was onlly 14 and at that age no worries about getting to work just loads of sledging and snow ball fights,even building igloos. Schools never closed though!

It is interesting amongst all the discussion about model accuracy to look regularly at how statistically this is showing up for the northern hemisphere at 500mb. I refer to the usually daily input from Gibby, see below for this morning. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECMshow at 24 hours ECM leading UKMO at 99.6 pts to 99.5 pts with GFS closely behind at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.5 pts to UKMO's 97.3 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.4 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 88.6 pts toUKMO at 87.9 pts then GFS at 85.3 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 57.1 pts over GFS's 50.4 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 36.0 pts to 29.9 pts. If we look at this data then none of the models are better than about 50:50 after day 5 or so and by day 10 not much more than 1 i 3 are correct. Something to bear in mind when posting about any of the big 3, well 2 as UK Met does not go public beyond their 120h Fax although there is a public extension out to 144h. This leaves us with the 500mb anomaly charts as our best guide to what may happen. Everyone knows the 3 I use but there are others which are used on here. As with the synoptic models ignore single outputs and watch for continuity from day to day and between models. Even then out at day 10 and beyond great care is needed but it does provide the best guide in a 2 week slot as to what airmass is most likely to affect the UK. Beyond 2 weeks then, in the winter, some reasonable guidance is available from the MJO signal provided it has a reasonable orbit, close to the origin and it provides little help, in my view.

This morning's ecm anomalies shows the transition to a more unsettled westerly regime, in line with the GEFS, as the mid Atlantic trough exerts itself and the ridging slides east. This continues into the ext period with the trough the dominant player as the ridge is situated east of the Baltic. A number of posters have suggested that there is no great evidence of change, putting aside blown away by the jet for the moment, so I've reluctantly concluded that I'm hallucinating.

Yes and that day was followed by the coldest July night on record and not much mention of this!

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON WEDNESDAY OCT 14TH 2015 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A High pressure ridge remains extended across Scotland from the East with a cold NE flow across the South of Britain. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif CURRENT SNOW LYING UK AND NORTHERN HEMISPHERE There is currently no snow lying in the UK with the freezing level ranging from just under 10000ft across Western Ireland while nearer to just under 5000ft across much of England. The snow cover above 60 deg North continues to expand across mainland Russia and the States which extends to 55 deg North in western Russia. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Remaining mostly fine and settled with frost and fog patches at night and only relatively small chances of significant rain more especially in the North and West later. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow remaining positioned well to the NW of the UK for some while yet before moving gently South on it's West to East axis at the same time as strengthening next week. It then blows quite strongly across the UK and Northern Europe later in the period where it remains for the rest of the period. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows the weather influenced by High pressure to the North and NE for a while yet with a cool, and somewhat showery flow across the SE persisting for a time. Then through next week the High pressure to the North slips down across the UK and end up to the South, switching winds to a milder Westerly flow with a North/South split in the weather developing with rain at times in the North but with dry and fine conditions in gentler Westerly winds across the South. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run is almost identical to the operational in the short term though it makes rather less of the North/South divide in conditions from next week, maintaining a UK based High pressure zone across the UK for longer with the eventual removal of it towards Europe late in the run and setting up a mild Southerly flow across the UK with maybe some rain edging into the far West at the end of the period. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters in 14 days seem to endorse a 85/15 split in favour of Westerly winds flowing across the UK at the 14 day time point with rain at times across the UK especially in the North and West. Only 15% of members this morning show a continuation of a cooler anticyclonic pattern likely in association with High pressure to the NE at that time. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO today shows very little change in conditions in the short term under a ridge over Scotland and a cool NE flow across the SE with a few showers at times. Then towards the start of next week the cool NE flow is cut off as the ridge slips South introducing less cold and cloudier Westerly winds across the far North by the early part of next week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning still show High pressure in control over the North of the UK close to Northern Scotland. In the South a cool NE flow and a complex array of troughs maintain rather cloudy skies at times with some showers and rather limited amounts of bright weather. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM today also follows the general theme of shifting the axis of the ridge of High pressure currently over the far North to move further South over the next week to lie to the South of the UK by midweek switching winds to a milder cloudy Westerly then with some rain at times developing across the North by the end of next week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM today shows High pressure less inclined to move South next week and although the cool NE flow in the SE may become a thing of the past next week most of the UK will lie under a belt of High pressure with sunshine and fine weather persisting with frost and fog night and morning. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM this morning follows the main theme of the morning being the High pressure belt gradually moving South to lie to the South of the UK by later next week. This means many more days of this cool and anticyclonic weather with a NE flow and showers persisting for some while yet across the East and SE. Then as the High slips South next week the cool NE flow will be cut off and winds will eventually shift to a much milder Westerly with cloud and eventually some rain at times likely across the North later next week although it looks unlikely from today's charts that much of this will reach the South within the period. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows High pressure declining with the chance of more unsettled conditions edging into the West and NW. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The main trend from this morning's output is for somewhat milder conditions to develop later as High pressure slips to the South of the UK later next week. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM leading UKMO at 99.6 pts to 99.5 pts with GFS closely behind at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.5 pts to UKMO's 97.3 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.4 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 88.6 pts to UKMO at 87.9 pts then GFS at 85.3 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 57.1 pts over GFS's 50.4 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 36.0 pts to 29.9 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS There is a wind of change shown across the output this morning which does show a pattern shift later next week onward. In the meantime it's business as usual as High pressure to the NE and North maintains a ridge across the North and West of the UK with a cool and somewhat showery NE flow across the SE but fine and bright weather elsewhere with mist, fog and frost patches at night. Then as we move into next week the NE flow over the South dissipates as the High pressure ridge over the North slips South. This will probably mean the worst of the fog and any frost problems will transfer to the South for a time with the North becoming milder and cloudier as a Westerly flow develops. Looking further ahead still and it appears the theme is for Westerly winds to become established across the UK meaning milder weather but the price to pay being rain at times developing with time, mostly across the North and West with only a little in the South as High pressure never looks far away from here. From my own perspective I feel that despite quite a lot of cross model support for High pressure to shift South and bring back milder Westerly winds caution should be observed at such a range as High pressure can become quite stubborn to shift now we're entering more Autumnal weather patterns and I think models may shift back towards UK based High pressure rather longer than currently shown. What is a feature of this morning's output again is the lack of anything unpleasant featured for any part of the UK over the next few weeks as our benign and quiet Autumn of 2015 thus far continues. WORST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif For the worse chart of the day I have chosen one which isn't particularly bad which just reflects how benign this Autumn is synoptically. In this chart Low pressure to the NW would bring wind and rain for many but not that much ion the South in an overall relatively mild pattern. BEST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.gif The best chart today goes to UKMO at day 5 as it shows an extensive ridge lying NE across the UK maintaining fine and settled weather for all at that time point with just the twin perils of frost and fog night and morning the only weather issues nationwide. Next update from 09:00 Thursday Oct 15th 2015

I absolutely love your 3D renditions of our planet and atmosphere Recretos, it must be such fun to sculpt all the data into meaningful images, we all really appreciate them! You should get yourself on TV :-)

Didn't we have warmest July day ever this year...amidst a totally cooler than average summer...and recorded at a singular station at Heathrow Airport. Record heat was a headline that was pumped out.....hmmmm BFTP

It wasn't fairly average it was 2F above average. Whichever way you want to spin this the US as a whole was relatively warm.

it's certainly a different set up this year which is always exciting just simply because it's different . North America have had 2 very cold winters recently but looking how different the sea temp set ups are this year makes for a very different year . For me personally I agree and think the Pacific Ocean temps will give the states a mild winter . Remembering of course the ocean temps in the North Pacific off the west coast of North America/Canada has cooled off substantially recently so don't think the omega block will feature like it did the last 2 years running . Along with the super Nino in complete contrast to recent years . I really feel Europe's gonna experience a cold winter , I think a very strong Russian block frequently migrating west toward Scandinavia after the turn of the year paritcualy , and yes at times (as much as 3 times) I think it will in some way effect our shores . With northern blocking playing a major part in February migrating west toward Greenland . Naturally we will always be on the edge of most European freezes so we will , as we normally do , have a zonal winter of sorts , but cold zonal bringing many wintry showers to many , cold zonal period bringing temps of -1c below the normal for an average zonal spell , so maybe 3/4'c in the south 2/3'c in the north , rather than 4-7'c respectively , interspersed by frequent marginal snow events for England , followed by 2-4 days of colder easterly winds from the continent , then rinse repeat for most of jan , but the Russian high mainly becoming a Scandinavian high as we go through feb , exerting more and more influence , so cold spells becoming more entrenched later on . That's my thoughts , I know many no me to a snow lover and I am . But Iv never even attempted to air my winter thoughts before now , and im saying it as I see it this year . The super El Niño, and ocean temp profile been our main drivers this year , with the Russian/Scandinavian high running a close second. Please feel free to correct me/advise me guys . Either way another fascinating winter coming up

If it was winter right now, the current set up would provide lots of lovely cold temps and the odd snow shower. The snow gains are looking good.

I'm interested to know why you make references to winter 2009/10? El Nino 2009/10 wasn't classed as a strong event, what if we get (god forbid) something like 1997/98 for example (strong El Nino) which was a very mild and at times stormy winter overall especially late December, January & February where temps were into the mid-high teens at times. Of course a lot of other factors come into play here but there are quite a few examples from the past where El Nino does not mean the UK will see a cold winter. Both GFS & ECM now seem to agree that we could have around another week or so of high pressure before low pressure begins to influence from the NW possibly heralding a more zonal set up with the south of the UK likely to hold onto something more settled for longer.

Which is why there was so much snow fall on Western mountains in particular last winter and why it fell to lower levels than in 2014. That was the very noticeable difference between 2014 and 2015, the low level Access Runs at Glencoe were only skied a handful of days in 2014 despite record breaking snow depths burying the lifts up the mountain, but in 2015 many weeks of skiing to the base at 1200ft on Rannoch Moor was possible, indeed even mid April it was still possible to ski to around 1600ft and within 5mins walk of the carpark (main ski area at Glencoe starts at 2200ft). Of course those looking for low land snow would have been less impressed, but I'd happily take 14 or 15 again - but with less stormy weekends for the Ski Areas!

I think we can all agree that the ridge out in the Atlantic is going to probably move back Eastwards, perhaps sinking South or perhaps setting up over the UK. Beyond that, it's all to play for. I'm certainly seeing no evidence of an Atlantic onslaught some people seem to be trying to push and nothing of the sort on the horizon either. The theme up until the end of the month in fact looks likely to be settled with high pressure over or close to the UK. Into November perhaps a more substantial risk of unsettled weather developing assuming the analogues are right and we do see a mid Atlantic trough setup.

Some care should be taken vis "North America have had 2 very cold winters recently". I don't know about N. America as a whole but taking the contig. US the last four winters in terms of coldest since 1895 rank 118, 102, 33, and 101. People keep assuming, not that I'm suggesting you do, that the US was very cold last year because of events in the NE.

It's laughable drivel. Nature is reactive, not predictive. Neither that swan nor my pet hamster know what the weather is going to be like in winter.