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Is the point being missed here? My understanding from reading the various research papers posted in this thread is that the AMO phase is a significant driver of the northern hemisphere climate but phases are NOT driven by the AMOC. Research looking at the past 450 years shows the phases are largely driven by external forcing with volcanic and solar activity being the two main drivers. This research suggests the role of the AMOC is to moderate the impact of the AMO phase. It found a weak AMOC “characterized the Little Ice Ageâ€. (See Post #64 on page 4 by Yarmy and the paper “Evidence for external forcing of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation since termination of the Little Ice Ageâ€. Also my comments in my Post #74). If we then look at the research findings in a paper titled “Exceptional twentieth century slowdown in Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation†published in March 2015, this found that the slowing of the AMOC since the 1970’s “has been unprecedented over the past millennium†due to the levels of meltwater and fresh water run-off entering the N. Atlantic. (See my post #97 on page 5). So yes, your views that the AMO “is performing normally†is likely correct. BUT, it’s the fact that the AMO looks to be entering a negative (cold) phase, whilst at the same time the slowing of the AMOC is “unprecedented over the past millennium†so is less able to moderate the effects of the AMO. This is the fascinating development for me and it will be interesting to see the results of the October 2015 RAPID cruise for an update on the AMOC strength. Interesting times in my view.

I think the logic behind an easily disrupted or failing to organise October vortex and a resultant winter -AO is sound enough. Even though we were fairly mild, America has had two brutal winters courtesy of -AO phases. It's how the dice land. However given at present most LR models want to take the states warm this winter........(read between the lines). Anyhoo, back to model discussion.....

Good evening. Well just perusing the model output this evening and in the short term it looks like we have one more fine week before a breakdown- as has been touched on already. HP domination across the UK along with a fairly typical +AO and northerly jet... Before something more unsettled pushes in towards the end of the weekend and into next week.... But what really interests me is the advertised tanking of the AO on both the GFS and ECM as we progress into October. I refer you to a post Bluearmy made a few days back about building blocks for the NH winter base state. Traditionally -AO Octobers are associated with an increased likelihood of a -AO winter....or so I'm led to believe by reading various pieces of research. So seeing charts like this into October could potentially be good news Even for the UK, encountering 2 years in a row where this theory is a bust must be seriously unlucky??

Almost half way now!

A highly unusual discovery has been made on Sgurr na Lapaich in the northwest Highlands, where signs suggest that a huge summertime avalanche of snow, mud and rock took place. This mixture has covered a pre-existing snow patch, which now bears a striking resemblance to a debris-strewn dirty glacier. More here: http://www.ukhillwalking.com/news/item.php?id=70000

The ice melt causing a thermohaline slow down (or shut down) hypothesis has been in the research for many a long year. It is not possible to have this discussion without reference to the various science papers on the subject - most of those will reference climate change as being instrumental - that's because it is where science is at. Maybe other theories will become more mainstream - time, research and developments could alter perceptions already held. There are alternative suggestions ..... http://www.clim-past-discuss.net/10/2519/2014/cpd-10-2519-2014.pdf Nothing out of the ordinary as far as speed and direction are concerned - it is other branches/overturning that are being altered. 2005 2015

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON MONDAY SEP 28TH 2015 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A High pressure area will continue to dominate the weather across the UK through the period as it drifts gradually to the NE of the UK. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Mostly settled and fine at first but more unsettled and windy thereafter with rain or showers at times. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the main arm and core of the flow remaining well to the North of the UK for the first week of this morning's forecast period. It then troughs South just to the West of the UK in a week or so time which opens the door for a strengthening flow to move East over the Atlantic to push the flow East on a much more Southerly course again across the UK in the second week. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows High pressure across Northern Britain for all of the coming week with fine and settled weather for all areas as a result with variable cloud cover. Then towards the end of next weekend pressure falls steadily and the second week comparatively becomes windy and unsettled with rain and showers developing for all as deep Low pressure to the North of the UK pushes rain bearing troughs East across the UK with temperatures near average or a little below at times. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run this morning is quite supportive of the operational this morning, not just for the first week as yesterday but for the second week 2 with a much more mobile weather pattern developing across the UK from next weekend as pressure falls and a strong Westerly airflow with rain at times develops and lasts throughout the rest of the period. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning have swung more towards a return to unsettled and windy weather again especially over the North and West of the UK for two weeks time with a much smaller group of members supporting a ridge holding on across the South. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO today also supports a fall in pressure next weekend as this weeks High pressure and fine weather finally slips away to the ESE next weekend. While it will stay dry through the forecast period by Day 6 (Sunday) a slowly freshening Southerly breeze will show troughs edging into Western Britain from off the Atlantic http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show High pressure close to or over the UK up to and including Day 5 with fine and settled weather for the UK with a stiff Easterly breeze across the far South at times. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 GEM GEM this morning shows a slightly slower transgression towards more unsettled weather leaving it until early next week before troughs edge into the UK from the West and leading to an unsettled spell later next week with wind and rain at times for all. This of course all follows this weeks fine and settled weather for the whole UK bar the very far North. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM also supports falling pressure next weekend but from a slightly different source being the NW with an increasing SW breeze and some rain moving slowly SE across the UK following what will of been a week of fine and settled conditions under High pressure. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif ECM ECM this morning also follows the deteriorating course of weather beginning from next weekend. In the meantime fine and settled weather prevails as High pressure remains locked over or near the UK. then at the weekend it declines to the east and a SSW flow develops with Low pressure developing to the west and moving into the UK later as quite a deep feature completely transforming the weather to quite wet and windy conditions for all by Day 10. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night illustrates a swing towards more unsettled weather with SW winds and rain at times by Dy 10. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models have strengthened their trend towards more unsettled conditions developing across the UK from the end of next weekend as all models support a fall of pressure. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead of UKMO at 99.5 pts to 99.4 with GFS closely behind at 99.3 pts. At 3 days ECM is tied with UKMO at 96.6 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.7 pts. At 5 days ECM leads UKMO at 86.7 pts to 86.4 pts then GFS at 84.5 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 58.3 pts over GFS's 53.5 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 34.4 pts to 33.9 pts from GFS. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png MY THOUGHTS It appears finally that we have a lot of agreement on when and how the current fine and settled weather will end. In the meantime we have another 5-6 days of rock solid High pressure based weather with the centre often covering the UK and ensuring a lot of fine and dry weather with variable cloud and sunny spells by day but still with chilly nights with mist and fog and a touch of frost in the less breezy North. Then it's at the weekend when pressure looks to fall and while the weekend itself looks like staying dry at the start of next week fronts finally make there move into the UK from the West or SW. Conditions then look likely to deteriorate significantly next week with rain and showers in abundance and winds becoming strong at times too as Low pressure areas make inroads across or close to the UK. Temperatures will naturally decline in the wind and rain and even when it's brighter and more showery it will feel cool in a blustery breeze from a West or NW source. It should be noted that while there is strong agreement on the weather turning unsettled next week there is plenty of disharmony on the details of this at the moment between the models so expect a continuation of further shifts of emphasis on speed and extent of change in subsequent output but with a Jet flow which looks like ratcheting up a few gears next week and on a much more Southerly track than this week there is a fair chance of the breakdown coming to pass I'm afraid. So lets enjoy the next 5-6 days as by this time next week it looks like Autumn will be taking on a more usual guise of wind and rain rather than fine and settled. WORST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM at 10 Days offers us the worst chart of the day with a deep Low pressure belt stretching from the UK and to the North with another centre mid Atlantic maintaining unsettled and often wet and cool conditions looking like lasting some while as any build of pressure looks hard to acquire from the pressure distribution as shown. BEST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm961.gif The best chart of the day unsurprisingly comes from this week and today's offering is the 4 day chart from ECM which shows High pressure centred right across the UK with fine and settled weather at that time for all areas with light winds and no chance of rain. Next update from 09:00 Tuesday Sep 29th 2015

My theoretical bias is that ocean temperatures do not directly cause weather patterns so much as they inevitably interact with them after they get forced from a different set of causal factors. The problem for testing this cause and effect coupling is that sometimes it is difficult to separate out whether (a) the pattern you see is caused from the ocean temperature pattern below it, (b) the ocean temperature pattern is caused by the atmospheric pattern above it, or © some other causes produce each of them either as a couplet or independently then they have to interact with each other. So this tends to influence any given researcher's perception of how the cold pool in the Atlantic will affect the coming winter synoptic patterns. One theory would say, effects might be minimal because even at 4-5 deg below normal by midwinter these water temps will not be colder than air mass temps over the same region anyway, so all that will change is that the surface instability normally caused by ocean heating of the boundary layer will disappear. Another theory might say that the colder waters will inevitably force the jet stream to diverge or to remain unified but further south than normal in that sector. While that's not a guarantee of colder temperatures, it almost certainly guarantees a stormier pattern in western Europe and perhaps more variable temperature regime. Yet another theory says the colder Atlantic is an easier place for high latitude blocking to develop, especially if coupled with the El Nino and even more so if that El Nino translates west to become a Modoki type El Nino. This appears to favour west Greenland blocking too. I've been looking at all this in detail recently from a very particular research perspective and my conclusion is that the winter is likely to be divided into two halves, the first being a very stormy pattern that remains rather mild much of the time, and the second being dominated by blocking highs and possibly rather extreme cold at times. There may not be a very large analogue set for the coming winter. But I do think we will be seeing major consequences of this cold Atlantic, warm Pacific set up.

Some photos from last night: Here starts the painstaking task of aligning all of these photos and putting them together in a time-lapse. It might take me a while.

I did expect it to be more of a blood red but I'm not complaining. This was taken in Dublin credit to whoever took it. night folks thanks for sharing this special experience together

1st snowfall of the season on Ben Nevis yesterday.

I'm aware of the 'histrionics' and the scientific repudiation of the libellous witch hunt which totally exonerated him is also well documented. As far as I'm aware his reputation remains unsullied in scientific circles so if you are still inferring otherwise at least have the balls to say so.

When I used to work on a farm in the 80's and 90's there were several times that manure was dragged out of the buildings and piled up outside either mixed up with snow or piled on top of drifts.Bearing in mind we were at 365metre snow laid buried for a conciderable time after all remaining snow around the hills had gone.I do remember one time ,am guessing it was all but summer when spreading the muck I was surprised to find lumps of ice mixed in ,I guess the ice must have been buried too but lasted even longer than any snow.I wish I had made a not of the dates but it does go to show how soil/muck can insulate snow or ice.

Was sat watching the news when it was interrupted to bring live coverage of NASA press conference. Bit disappointed really, was expecting video of little green men with pointy fingers and conical heads.

Sorry to read that boyblue, I deleted several posts to avoid the continuing need to edit and moderate the thread, nothing more. Indeed this edit of the thread was supported by a report from another user who wished the thread not to drift (no pun intended) off at a tangent. There is an entire climate forum located here https://forum.netweather.tv/forum/105-climate-change-the-science/ I would like to re-affirm that posts are not sanctioned, nor is there a 'groupthink' or moderating agenda within the team and there are some discussions more suited to other areas of the forum. Please continue to report posts using the button on each post or PM the forum team. Thanks.

Daily comparison using the GFS, ECM, UKMO, JMA, ICON, GEM, NAVGEM, NASA, CMA, FIM and the CFS all up to 240 hours along with the ECM and GFS ensembles. For each day whatever model has the most support will be shown for that time. 24 Hours Tuesday (ECM) High pressure between 1030 to 1035mb covers all of the UK and Ireland. 48 Hours Wednesday (NAVGEM) High pressure moves West while still covering all of the UK and Ireland. 72 Hours Thursday (FIM) The high pressure remains in the same position continuing the settled spell of weather. 96 Hours Friday (FIM) We see the high pressure move East now and backing out of the Atlantic as it starts to weaken but it will still stay settled up to the end of next week. 120 Hours Saturday (UKMO) The high pressure continues to weaken and move away East from the UK and Ireland. 144 Hours Sunday (GFS) As high pressure continues to move away the Western parts will see low pressure slowly taking control and may become more unsettled. 168 Hours Monday (NAVGEM) Low pressure takes full control in the North by now. 192 Hours Tuesday (ECM) Still a sign of high pressure building up to or near Greenland at the start of next week. Over at the UK it takes a unsettled turn with low pressure systems crossing over the UK. 216 & 240 Hours Wednesday and Thursday (ECM & FIM) Low pressure still looks like it will be in control with some wet and windy weather looking likely.

Well charts paint a rosy week coming up then bingo some charts in the outlook to warm the cockles of our hearts with atlantic driven weather systems .So frosty we look forward to your wintry charts if this further outlook from todays charts come to fruition ,cheers ,Razor blades, Straws ,Prams and of course Prozack comes to mind ,cheers gang

Damn lucky where I am for this, the fog-bank rolled in just 5 minutes into Totality and it was 'biting nails' in terms of how close and fast those clouds came in. Can't complain though as I did get a few good shots with the D3100.

Impressively dark eclipse here. Just got back from my dark country lane and I reckon it's darker than the 2007 one. Less of a brightening on one end like you often get. Never seen so many stars at full moon...

Well least it looks a bit red now Added another photo i took a min ago.. Cam phone dont pick the moon out well.. But can see the rednes

yup big chunk dark now!

It's pretty much 01:12 - the start of the penumbral lunar eclipse. Look out for a very gradual and subtle dimming of the Moon as it enters the Earth's penumbra. Not long until the blood moon appears now!

Nice one Knocker. I emailed the chief oceanographer at Met Office today for their thoughts... looking forward to seeing what they come up with...

Most of the Gfs 12z is showing warm anticyclonic conditions with plenty of sunshine and chilly nights with mist and fog patches until around the middle of week 2 but it then turns much colder and more unsettled from the North, (from the arctic actually) with snow on high ground in scotland although it takes longer for the cold air to reach the south before a cold high builds across the uk with night frosts, the high becoming centred across the northern half of the uk with a chilly easterly flow becoming established further south so it's a very interesting run to say the least, warm and settled then much colder and unsettled then staying relatively cold for the time of year and becoming settled again...winter is coming

I tend to agree with this. I haven't seen the previous deleted comments, but I thought the following graph produced on the another forum, tends to indicate that the AMO is performing normally. and furthermore is due a downward spiral. Does the low North Atlantic SST's signal this? Anyones guess.!!

Thanks Lorenzo, I appreciate your comments & don't doubt the overall sincerity of this site. Adios.

You only need post in the relevant section, boyblue?

Just deleted that little section of off topic exchanges. Appreciate there is some level of crossover to the Climate threads, please consider whether you want to maintain the thread of this topic, or whether the post you are creating is better suited in the Climate section, saves the forum team a lot of work moderating, moving posts and issuing PMs etc. Thanks.

The minimum today is 5.8C, while maxima look like reaching the low 18s, so a drop back to 12.9C is possible on tomorrows update. After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at: 12.9C to the 29th (13.1: +0.0) 13.0C to the 30th (13.6: +0.8] So 12.9C or 13.0C before corrections, 12.4 to 13.0C after corrections.

13.0c to the 27th 0.8c below the 61 to 90 average 1.2c below the 81 to 10 average

I got up just after 4 and managed to get a photo - my image is blurry (as was I) but the blood colours come through great! Moon looked great last night prior to eclipse!

I'm looking forward to posting them legritter Looking at the 00z output it's becoming increasingly likely we will see a big swing to unsettled weather next week onwards which i'm pleased about as it will increase the chances of polar maritime incursions through october.

The Gfs 00z shows anticyclonic conditions throughout this week with variable cloud and sunny / clear spells and feeling pleasantly warm by day with max temps in the low to mid 60's F but overnight becoming chilly with patchy mist and fog, the coldest nights across northern britain where a touch of frost is possible in rural areas. The high starts to push away eastwards through next weekend and from the start of next week it becomes progressively unsettled and cooler from the west with bouts of strong winds and persistent rain alternating with brighter but colder and showery conditions and towards the end of the run, it becomes colder still with showers turning wintry across northern hills and mountains.

Lovely eclipse. It wasn't a "bright" total lunar eclipse 1 or 2 on the Danjon scale?

Steady she goes

The shadows casted on the ground are now much less defined. Light levels are most definatelly dropping now.

Deffo getting darker!

Yes the darkening is definately noticeable now! We're nearly there!

Is it me or is the top left hand corner of the Moon starting look ever so slightly darker than the rest of it?

It's usually not until near the end of the penumbral stage when the moon will be noticeably dimmer.

Just took a pic of the moon through my telescope with a point and shoot before it starts! :-)

Might be an idea to follow oceanographer Gerard McCarthy on Twitter in the coming weeks as he will be on the upcoming RAPID cruise. https://mobile.twitter.com/ger_the_sea

Michael E. Mann â€@MichaelEMann 6h6 hours ago On @weatherchannel tomorrow ~8:40 AM ET to talk about North Atlantic #ColdBlob This is quite neat http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=326.14,46.25,881 …

Welcome luis. That's a good article by the Portland Press Herald. It discusses a research paper first mentioned on this forum back at post #97 (page 5) called 'Exceptional twentieth-century slowdown in Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation' by Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf and Michael E. Mann (amongst others). What I find interesting is when a follow-up press report manages to squeeze some additional insight or comment out of the research paper's authors. In this case the Herald contacted the two authors above and I think it's worth posting their comments: Michael E. Mann: "I was formerly somewhat skeptical about the notion that the ocean “conveyor belt†circulation pattern could weaken abruptly in response to global warming. Yet this now appears to be underway, as we showed in a recent article, and as we now appear to be witnessing before our very eyes in the form of an anomalous blob of cold water in the sup-polar North Atlantic." Prof. Rahmstorf: "The fact that a record-hot planet Earth coincides with a record-cold northern Atlantic is quite stunning. There is strong evidence — not just from our study — that this is a consequence of the long-term decline of the Gulf Stream System, i.e. the Atlantic ocean’s overturning circulation AMOC, in response to global warming. ...........I do expect the AMOC to decline further in the coming decades. The accelerated melting of the Greenland ice sheet will continue to contribute to this decline by diluting the ocean waters." From my point of view, I think there is sufficient research (much of it referred to in this forum) to have a reasonable understanding of the causes of the anomaly in the N. Atlantic (although gaps do remain). Less clear and less well understood is how this will impact local climate and weather patterns (particularly for the UK and northern Europe), e.g. behaviour of the jet stream, track of winter storms, precipitation levels/patterns, etc, etc. So there's much more research to be undertaken and reports to read - I suspect we can look forward to this being an active forum for some time!

Yep, our lunar friend is up there. Since I am attempting a time-lapse of it tonight, this is the first of probably several hundred, to several thousand photos I'll take tonight...

Here we go! The official (old) picture!

The Gfs 00z shows an anticyclonic week ahead but then there is quite a dramatic change from the northwest to much colder and unsettled conditions, cold enough for sleet and snow on northern hills. High pressure then builds in across the south for a time but the run ends unsettled with further cold shots from the northwest looking likely. It's been a regular feature of the gfs recently for a colder and unsettled early october with polar maritime incursions, I hope we see plenty of it next month!