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Yes it was December 2010

The Gfs 00z shows some very warm / hot weather at the start of next week across most of England and then again later next week across southern UK. In the meantime, the next 3/4 days show a good deal of fine weather with long sunny spells and lighter winds but with isolated showers, chilly nights but daytime temperatures slowly recovering into the low 20's c by saturday. Sunday looks even warmer, into the mid 70's F further south and the weekend looks largely fine with just a few showers dotted around, mainly across scotland where they could be heavy but by Sunday it looks dry, sunny and warmer for many parts of the UK. Rain pushes slowly eastwards on Monday which could be thundery in the south but before the rain it looks very warm in the s/e. Tues/wed look cooler and fresher with sunshine and showers but becoming warm / very warm again in the s/e during the second half of next week with largely fine conditions but staying cooler and more unsettled in northwest Britain. Further ahead it's still a nw/se split with spells of fine and warm weather further southeast and most of the wind/rain and cooler temps to the northwest.

As i have been given permission to share, something amazing happened this evening, some intence showers crossed the Island, 2 of them produced 2 waterspouts, one of showers had what apperared to waterspout, along with 2 funnels next to it

Beauty.....it's in the eye of the beholder. Snow.....mmmm, love the stuff. Quite why opaque frozen water manages to captivate me, and many others quite so much is impossible to explain. Personally speaking it's for so many reasons....dark, dank, bleak winter landscapes transformed almost in an instant to a glistening, brilliant, sparkling vista; those grim winter light levels are restored to high summer brilliance as the sun is bounced off the snow. For a girly who likes glittery things, nothing, not even diamonds, can beat the sparkle of a ray of sunshine on a snow covered tree. The silence. In these days of non stop living and noise, deep snow is about the only time when the noise from traffic stops almost completely. Nothing around here stirs, it's as though something or someone has pressed the pause button on life, step outside and the entire world is yours and yours alone. Just you and your crunchy footsteps. The neighbourliness. After your moment of owning the world, fellow adventurers appear. People who live just a few doors away but you never see, often have never met, suddenly have time away from work and can only spend it in their village. New faces, smiles, chats, mutual appreciation for the fun to be had spark a camaraderie which stays, so that stranger who you used to see drive past is a stranger no more, now it's someone you share a wave and a smile with. The elderly, the infirm, the neighbours, get a knock at the door and a chat - need anything, wood brought in, anything from the shop? The excitement. As a lady of ever advancing years there's one thing and one thing alone which can in an instant transform me into a little kid again. I can remember being excited as a kid on Christmas eve, longing for Santa to come, wondering has he been? If I'd been naughty, wondering if he'd come at all. But remembering isn't the same as being or feeling. A forecast of possible snow and I'm right back there to that Christmas eve feeling, up and down like a yoyo looking out the windows, is it? Has it started? Forecast said overnight snow possible... who needs sleep anyway? Finally admitting defeat, crawling into bed at stupid o'clock, say a little prayer, cross my fingers and fall asleep hoping. Next morning, (and I'm not a morning person, tea, coffee, fags and I'm kind of awake an hour after getting up) it takes possibly as long as 20 seconds for my brain to register the light, the very unique light that only a fall of snow can create, is filtering through the curtains. I'm out of bed, across the room and throwing open the curtains and windows, grinning like a Cheshire cat in less than 2 seconds. The fun. Sledging, ski-ing, snowball fights, building snowmen. What's not to like? How bad is my snow addiction? Let's just say I'd be more than happy to have a little shack on top of Ben Nevis to retire to for the winter, and if winter dragged on a bit and we had a really late spring, it wouldn't be the end of the world :-)

Well something fun and cool for my 800th post here! A little time lapse video from this afternoon - 1h 15m speeded up to 30 seconds. You can see the clouds forming and bubbling away nicely. I like it anyway p.s. If you watch it, dont forget to change the quality to 720p cuz youtube has a habbit of just showing low res lol.... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TRArMgpCBQI

No offence but it could be a lot worse with a cold northley or the train from the west bring a loud of rain with it stopping exclusively at the UK. From my untrained eyes it seems it is at least warmer then last week so that's something

That low to our north-west is not getting anywhere fast, and none of the GEFS 06Z options have brought the main upper-trough over bulk of the UK by Thursday next week. In fact, there are a fair few tasty members in this ensemble suite that have re-established a continental flow by this time, and not just for the south-east corner: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=174 though a number of the warmer runs are quickly swept away by a thundery low on Friday morning: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=192 The GEFS ensembles for London shows 9 of the 21 members with 850s above 16C on either Thursday or Friday - that's hot: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?ext=1&x=306&y=141&ville=Londres ECM ensembles do not agree though, with the main spread for 850s only getting to 11C/12C. http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/ecmwfens_display.php?x=306&y=141&ville=Londres So warming up Sunday/Monday, cooler Tuesday and low but not insignificant chance of heat returning by the end of the week

I would suggest that the 6-10 shows little sign of anything other than the odd day of summer like weather even for the SE. The 8-14 shows that the upper pattern 'may' be starting to move. It shows the trough, for so long out west, is predicted to move over the UK giving a westerly 500mb flow. Not that it brings any sign of summer, probably remaining fairly changeable or unsettled whichever word you prefer. links below as usual http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html showing, unusually for me, the 12z output as the 00z had no ECMWF, and anyway I suspect that, much as GFS, it is a pretty close copy anyway. Interesting that just 1 day from August this evening and the oft suggested return to summer is just as far away, and the anomaly charts have been rock solid with their refusal to join this idea. They really are very good IF used carefully for about 2 weeks ahead.

It would be off the scale nothing beats a picturesque Victorian style village in a blanket of thick snow. Even in London it can make the city beautiful it just evokes nostalgia to me of winters past.

Interesting to note the behaviour of low pressure systems these past three months, so many have spiralled in situ just to our NW and crossed to the NE pulling down NW/N airflows, a similar set up in winter would reinforce the cold SST's and it would be a potent polar maritime fest, snow galore for the NW quarter of the country.. quite likely to produce significant cold air advection over mid atlantic and our shores on occasion, warm air advection over central Europe and scandi blocked by a major strong ridge/high pressure over western Russia.

The Ecm 12z shows a generally changeable / unsettled outlook but at least it looks like being warmer next week by day and night than this week and occasionally humid with very warm air early next week then a fresher, breezier few days before the isobars spread out and winds fall lighter with warmer 850's flirting with the SE again later next week, could be some thundery weather for the southeast early and later next week. The most unsettled atlantic weather is further northwest, the south and east looks like having some fine and warm weather between the more unsettled spells

The stratus did break up about teatime allowing this: nice soft evening light for the foxies... Plenty of the wee flying peskies too!

Windows wide open in the evening letting the cool air in. No need for heating for a while yet.

If anything, the Gfs 6z is a slightly warmer run than the 00z across the southern half of the uk but the main theme remains much the same with a nw/se split for most of the time, the driest, sunniest and warmest conditions across the south / southeast of the UK. The reliable timeframe shows a lot of fine and sunny weather but also a few sharp showers although quite isolated, chilly nights for late summer but daytime temps improving. Next week the nights look milder and the days look warmer than this week away from northern uk so it will feel more like summer further south, there is a chance of thunderstorms clipping the southeast later on Monday. I had a look through all the 00z runs and none of them show any sustained settled weather, it's predominantly unsettled but by far the worst of it across the northwest of the BI, at least the chill will soon be replaced by more respectable temps but the dreadful summer for n.Ireland and Scotland seems like continuing.

And the whole of next week looks much more like summer on the 6z. A brief cool down midweek before temperatures and humidity rises, which brings the threat of heavy pulses of rain coming up from the south, but also some drier spells too.

Temperatures still looking good over much of eastern England on Monday. East Anglia looking like the favoured spot with 29c, possibly 30c.

Morning all, slight warm up still on the cards for the SE as we enter August and GfS keeps the rain stalled for a while before the Atlantic starts throwing early Autumn at us by the middle of the month. Time flies..... White Christmas watch soon

Snow brings a dead world alive. Skeleton trees seem to come alive, the drab colours are replaced by a brilliant white, decaying vegetation is covered. It brings a "light" to the long dark nights. A full moon and a snow cover is a beautiful sight.

Im gonna tell my mate too, as they are his pictures, just he allowed me to share these with you guys And cheers Greenday, couldn't agree with you more!

Nice autumn day with occasional sharp showers coming in on a cool N wind. Just fed cattle with some of last years hay so winter feeding routine is not far away. A maximum temperature of 12c today. World Orienteering Championships in our neck of the woods this coming weekend so heatstroke shouldn"t be a problem for the competitors.,

I suppose its ok if you live to work

Its alright watching it snow, its when it settles then it becomes a ballache. Im more addicted to watching it melt. Nowt better than watching mild winds get to work on a lawn full of mucky slush and compacted ice thats no good to anyone.

I don't see any plumes, just temporary ridging ahead of the lows as they swing through. The things being called plumes only take the temperature back to just above average; that is not a hot plume of true Spanish origin, by any stretch of the word.

Actually mushy the coming weekend doesn't look unsettled at all, for many of us it looks largely fine with sunny spells with just the chance of an isolated shower, Sunday looks best.

Snow addiction fans would love this chart from February 1969. Yes, this produced a proper Polar Low with very low temperatures and widespread deep snowfall in the North of England. I remember it well, 9 inches at Manchester Airport on the edge of the Cheshire Plain and 15 inches in the Cheshire Peak with deep snow drifts. The temperature at 4pm was -5c just after the Polar Low passed and fell to -20c in the days following. C

NO HE ISNT.... This really jaffa cakeses me off. You are misreprisenting what frosty says. Frosty only posts what the charts are SHOWING.

Snow addicts, how about a roll in this lot ? Outside my place back in February 2013. El Nino , means only one thing, snow for all of you before Christmas and lots of it. White out Blighty ! C

It's your opinion but I feel I have to exercise my opinion as regards to this. I think you need to go to Specsavers because it can be a thing of beauty. This is what I took 5 years ago

Ever since experiencing the holy kalt of winters in 62/63, my addiction to snow has never diminished with time. Now I spent 6 months of the year living in it and still crave for the first fall to occur. Even in the summer I sometimes drive or walk up to the highest bergs in the area to touch it.

eh? lovely warm southerlies? hardly, just a miserable dull windy thaw normally with rain at around 8C

Mornin' all single figure night @ 7.8°C, plenty of moisture in the air as all surfaces are damp.

lol, think it snowed in June once. You may well have, managed to avoid the showers here today, but all around me were threatening, dark skies. When is that cold night coming, it's 14c at the moment. Big party going on next door, they are still barbecuing. Haven't been invited because I called them a bunch of onions for parking in front of my drive and blocking me in! I take it that giving me some barbecue and birthday cake will also be out of the question. ....... again.

Short-to-medium range outlook - warming up later this week and over the weekend, perhaps into the high 20s in the south and east of England on Monday. But turning cooler and unsettled from Tuesday. View the full blog here

Same for me (both)

Broadly speaking the Uk is in an unsettled spell which continues. Now the northwest will bear the brunt of the worst weather , but that does not mean the southeast of Britain finds itself without some heavy rain ,thanks or no thanks to shortwave troughs which blow up with out warning,, That's sums it up to T+144.......

I think this evenings NOAA does go some way to supporting the scenario outlined above.

Looking at this evenings GEFs there is a pattern change between the 6th and 12th of August moving towards what was suggested by the EC32 and I think the METO. On the 6th we have HP over eastern Pole connecting to the Scandinavian ridge. Trough NE Canada feeding our boy just to the west of the UK which is bringing unsettled (general term) to the UK. Fast forward to the 12th and no HP in the eastern Pole, Scandinavian ridge now east European. Trough over Canada gone as is the one west of the UK to be replaced by a weak trough over the UK and another Greenland and a suggestion of ridging to the south west. A much less mobile pattern suggesting low pressure Greenland east and south of that a general area of HP in the Atlantic bringing a more stable westerly flow to the UK with about average temps. Needless to say by the end of the run guess whose back on the scene? But being optimistic I foresee a fairly reasonable outlook and perhaps some better weather for our northern friends. Charts weatherbell

Well again, it's a new version of the same problem - some may say parts of the country seeing a few drier (totally dry for many) days is settled. Some may say that with the rest of the country still seeing rain, and the over-riding pattern beyond that looking mobile is unsettled. But do we really have to go round and round in circles over this stuff?

Actually i was referring to the country as a whole, which, looking at the current models all suggest mobility which is why i used the term unsettled.

It's definitely not just you, but can we give up with this petty stuff regarding local conditions. Everyone lives in different parts of the UK, if someone says it's going to be unsettled, then it's probably safe to assume they mean in their locality, it really adds nothing to the discussion to disagree with them on the basis that somewhere else may have different weather. We all get it - the weather is different in different places, so can we just get on with discussing what the models are showing!

Back in London, jubilation a orrid neighbour has put his house up for sale on for £680k someone could easily add 100k onto that if they spruced it up. it will need to be fumigated and all the rest of it. It has been really quite chilly near the coast especially once dark it took me back to those dim days in October. I can take the rain as it was needed - but these unseasasonable chilly temperatures are not to be obliged. Back into low to mid 20's would be pleasant.

The far north has been reasonably dry but it's the depressed temps that people are talking about here, with growth of pretty well everything way behind normal, and some allotments looking pretty sad indeed. (Unlike the ones I saw in the Alps, where tomatoes and dwarf runner beans are ripening nicely outside at over 1100m asl...)

nice photos ,that second shot is a beauty

I walked outside this morning then doubled back for my coat! felt chilly at 7.7c this morning. Don't you just love these warm long summer days..

Caught it on my time-lapse towards the end

Am a 6 or 7 nowadays, after being a 9 or 10 years ago when we used to get decent cold spells and snowfall. When I was a teen thru the 80s I'd watch every single weather forecast, wouldn't be able to sleep, would lamppost watch out of an open window etc...my poor Mum used to go mad and everyone would take the mickey out of my weather obsession. These days, I'm not so keen on it. What I hate are slow thaws and temps above freezing in a 'cold' spell, which is what usually happens near London since the 90's. Decent snow events must have at least 2 consecutive ice days and nights or I'd rather it just rained and was mild.

Yes this is interesting because it has been much debated. From your link Does this latest paper support the Firestone paper from the above link? Evidence for an extraterrestrial impact 12,900 years ago that contributed to the megafaunal extinctions and the Younger Dryas cooling http://www.pnas.org/content/104/41/16016.abstract?ijkey=fa63250befe1e15daabd83d5626a3852ab70b3aa&keytype2=tf_ipsecsha

In your opinion, perhaps not. Personally I think that photo is stunning. There aren't many better weather-related sights than a fresh covering of snow in my view.

A few butterflies around this morning and plenty of damsel flies. A Comma and a damsel