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The GFS is showing a pretty cool Northerly flow from Tuesday and continuing through till wk-end. With single digit overnight minima for the vast majority of the UK, Especially the far North and parts of Wales/Northern England where there's the chance of ground frost, And cold enough for some Wintry showers over the Scottish Mountains as -2 850's get dragged into the mix.

latest bbc long range suggests another cooler than average august, so thats 4 month in a row if it happens, which I would bet on

I doubt you'll be alone in that ....

UKMO has ditched its unsettled outlook of yesterday and now has joined the rest of the models. At t+144 it looks like its gearing up for a warm southerly with low pressure to the west not really going anywhere fast.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON MONDAY JULY 27TH 2015. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. An Atlantic depression will move East across Northern England today and the North Sea later tonight and tomorrow. A slow moving trough will lie across Central Britain with a strong Westerly flow over the South. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Still rather changeable with some dry and bright conditions mixed with occasional rain or showers. Generally on the cool side but a few warmer interludes possible in the South. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast continues to show the flow blowing strongly across Southern Britain and Northern France. It slowly weakens and splits later in the week with one arm over Iberia while the other drifts gently further North. The axis then runs across Scotland through week 2, still weak before strengthening and moving back South again at the end of the second week. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a mixed bag over the next two weeks. The current windy and cool regime will be replaced by calmer weather from midweek with a lot of dry weather but still some showers in the NW. Temperatures will remain rather suppressed given the time of year but it could be marginally warmer in the SE next weekend. Through Week 2 things stay rather benign ith the best conditions in the South near a ridge. Then late in the period cool NW winds around a deep depression to the NE brings a return to cool and changeable weather to most parts. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run looks rather better in regard to warmer conditions across the SE from later this week and the South seems to be largely dry from the same time as High pressure to the SW throws a ridge our way. There will still be some more changeable conditions for the North and more generally late in the period with the best weather over the two weeks likely to focus around the South and SW. THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters at 14 days show not a lot of cheer with 40% of members wanting a cool NW flow over the UK at that time. 25% show a very inclement trough across the UK from Low pressure close to Eastern England while the remainder show variations on a cool West or NW theme but less unsettled than the rest. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO today shows a slender ridge developing across the South from midweek with quieter and drier if not overly warm conditions as a result. The ridge looks like building further over the weekend with fine and warmer weather likely for England and Wales with more changeable conditions restricted to the North and NW. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning also show slack High pressure developing over the South of the UK later in the week returning dry, pleasant conditions following the next few days of windy and changeable conditions with rain and showers. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120. GEM GEM shows a similar theme in regard to better, calmer weather later in the week but it takes a little longer for warmer weather of note to move into the SE before fronts reclaim some territory over the UK next week firstly to the NW and eventually to the SW with rain perhaps thundery for a time taking it's time to reach all areas from the West innitially and SW later. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM today is less kind in bringing the better conditions later this week and the weekend instead showing showery Low pressure slipping South over Ireland and later deepening as it drifts back NE over the UK 1 week from now maintaining the unsettled and largely rather cool theme going. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif. ECM ECM today looks very complex in it's movements of slack High and Low pressure in the coming week to 10 days. This morning's offering shows some improvements later this week but keeps the warmer temperatures over Europe until a deepening Low moves quickly NE over the NW next weekend and sucks warmer air then up into the SE. Some rain would affect the North and West in particular from this feature and maybe the South too briefly. The end of the run shows pressure rebuilding across the UK later next week with drier conditions for many as a result. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart this morning is an improvement on last night's pulling the trough to the NW further NW and a much better aligned ridge towards Southern Britain. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend again this morning is focusing on a return to a more NW/SE split to develop in the weather with the driest and warmest conditions towards the SE 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM. This morning's verification statistics show ECM leading the way at 3 days with 95.5 pts followed by UKMO at 95.0 pts and GFS at 94.2 pts. At 5 days ECM is stll king at 84.8 pts followed by UKMO at 81.6 and GFS at 81.4 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 56.0 pts over GFS's 50.7 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 35.2 pts to 29.0 pts from GFS. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig MY THOUGHTS The fog seems as thick as ever this morning as all models seem to struggle with what seems short term synoptics let alone longer term projections. The message this week seems more or less agreed though with some small scale differences between the outputs illustrated. Leaving these aside the general message is for the current windy and cool weather to be eroded from the South and West by midweek as a slack ridge builds across the South bringing dry and fine weather in light winds and sunny spells. Temperatures aren't expected to be spectacular though as the inherent air across the UK originated from Northern latitudes. Then from the weekend the waters muddy as there seems a variety of options shown, none of which would deliver anything particularly noteworthy or bad and some may in fact bring a lot of fine and dry weather if never overly warm. There could be a window of opportunity for the SE to get some warmth from Europe at the coming weekend but it looks favourable to push that away East or SE again later as all output that goes that far in the future has the desire to bring back unsettled and cool weather from the Atlantic again towards the end of the period with GFS showing a very chilly NW flow at the end highlighted by it's clusters this morning. In among all this confusion on specifics the outcome will probably end up that a NW/SE split in the weather is the maintained theme of the weather with the North gaining the most momentum from an Atlantic that refuses to lie down this Summer. While uppers across the UK continue from almost all output to show below average levels across most of Britain it looks unlikely that any sustained warmth is likely over the two weeks away from the SE but it looks equally unlikely that much in the way of rainfall will affect the South either through much of the period. Next update from 09:00 Tuesday July 28th 2015

Only because of rain though, not because of temps.

After enduring such a crap summer, i'll be fuming if we dont get a cold winter.

Apart from the far north and west Sunday is fine and warm on the GFS. So for most of the UK, the presence of the low pressure is meaningless

Unfortunately the model output does not paint a pretty picture both ecm and gfs show a big low moving towards the Uk during the weekend after that in cloud cuukoo land some very unsettled charts.....

Good evening one and all! It's been too long since I posted on here, but I can see that there are some stalwarts manning the battlements to keep you appraised of goings-on. It's been quite a year for snow in Scotland. At least, on the mountains it has. Winter brought a lot of snow to the hills generally, but not an exceptional amount. It largely blew in from the south-west, which is always good news. What has marked 2015 out, though (and this hardly needs to be said) is the fact that it's been extraordinarily cool on the hills since April. May was remarkably cold, with Lochaber and Glen Coe fully 3 degrees below the mean maximum temperature. June was little better. In fact, we saw an unusual amount of days of snow falling in June. (1st, 2nd, 3rd, 6th, 8th, 13th and 14th June). Obviously the cool temperatures preserve the existing snow. Remarkably, snow fell yesterday on the summit of Ben Nevis! Astonishing, given the time of year. As we approach August, masses of snow still remain on the hills all over the Highlands. From as far south as Beinn Ime (beside Loch Lomond) we are seeing snow persist in places where it doesn't normally. Admittedly much of this will disappear in the next couple of months, but I believe we're on track to see survivals not seen since 2000 and 1994. To demonstrate, the photograph immediately below is from the 2nd July this year. Compare it to what we thought was a snowy year, 2008. P Aonach Beag July Snow by Free.heel, on Flickr (2nd July 2015) 700ft Vertical Descent - Aonach Beag by Iain Cameron, on Flickr (4th July 2008) I'm organising a snow survey on the 21st and 22nd (see here: https://www.dropbox.com/s/2lo28j3av310cwr/august%20snow%20survey%20poster.docx?dl=0). If anyone fancies visiting a hill (Beinn Mhanach near Bridge of Orchy, especially) then please make yourself known! Also, there's a group on FB if you'd like to join: https://www.facebook.com/groups/snowpatchesscotland/

Max of 12.8c Nah, I'm out lads. I'll catch you all in September.... Rained fairly consistently for over 30 hours now

An end to this extremely unseasonable cool weather is in sight. Saturday should see temperatures back up into the low 20s over much of England but more cloud and rain will keep temperatures pegged back further north. Friday too is looking a decent day too away from the NW.

If it's any consolation, New Foundland's sufferering one of it's coolest July's on record and they only get a few months of warm weather each year! They've nicknamed it 'Julyuary' - which seems apt for us the next few days ... We only slowly warm up towards the weekend, back into the low 20s highs by Saturday in the south, high teens at best Tuesday/Weds. The carrot on the end of the stick for those wanting summer back is 06z GFS's heat for the south next Monday and Tuesday ... unfortunately 00z ECM looks more zonal/changeable 00z GFS had the warmth confined to the SE, be interesting to see if the 12z runs pick up on it again ...

Below average temperatures, which is what most on here chase for most of the year.

This is a stonker for the time of year, a potent Northerly.

ha I love how people pick out certain years where the coldest winter on record followed a poor summer..Am still waiting for July 2003 or 2006 to occur.. No one knows what will happen this winter..No one has a clue what will happen this August.. never mind 3/4 months down the line.

Must confess I'm with Feb91 on this:

Don't bet on the Atlantic system not getting further south at day 6 than the ops currently show

That's far too warm in the evening - that almost guarantees a sticky night, 10-13c is plenty warm enough to sit outside in a t-shirt.

Most on here this time of year chase something warmer if we had a southerly in winter and I went into the winter thread and said that all hell would break loose...... Lets be totally honest here 90% on here now are chasing something warmer just like in winter the vast majority want something colder

Once again this evening's GEFS anomalies flatter to deceive. After this week it has the upper trough orientated SE west of the UK gradually weakening which will allow periods of warmer weather into the southern half of the UK. It then develops a Scandinavian ridge accompanied by subtle height changes to the west which bodes well for a scandinavian/Atlantic HP connection. An idea that was floated a number of days ago. alas this is short lived with the low pressure Iceland way poking it's nose in again. Considering the weather we have been experiencing this isn't a totally bad outlook and I can't help wondering that as the GEFS and ECM keep toying with this HP connection it may eventually come to fruition. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Remember the chart is for ground Temp not air, Certainly no chance of Snow away from the Scottish Mountains. Here is the air Temp for the same time, Certainly a cool week coming up if not cold in parts for July as we enter the last Month of Summer.

Isnt it better to feel cool but comfortable but still warm enough to sit outside a pub though, rather than cloudy humid sticky conditions, I just don't see what they achieve either.

Only in winter. Most of us want warm weather in summer. A northerly in July is not useful - better to have these synoptics when it actually matters, in January.

But what will it realistically achieve to the average person? Absolutely nothing.The positive from this very cool spell is that it's quite likely August can't feel much worse and probably can only be better.

I've been discussing 1963 on another thread, pointing out that the abysmal summer '63 proceeded to one of the few "Golden Autumns" in my (long) recollection. Warm, dry and sunny, so much so that PE was held outdoors on my school's playing grounds in just shorts. August '63 was the pits, with the last weekend seeing torrential rain and bloody freezing. On the Monday, the first day back to school, cloudless blue sky that mostly lasted during September. Bear in mind this is personal experience and accordingly subjective, and of course location comes into the equation - in my case: Wirral.

I haven't posted much recently but I have been reading the discussion and it's been depressing reading at times. Looking at this morning's output, there are signs of more summerlike conditions at times during the next few weeks, later this week for example, especially across the south / southeast with drier and warmer weather and then next week we could see a strong ridge of high pressure building across at least the southern half of the UK, as shown on the Gfs 00z, the Ecm 00z looks even more promising as next week goes on...here's hoping for better times ahead.

We had a few days in N Wales last week - what an uninspiring period of weather accompanied us - talk about always take the weather with you! Only plus is that the midges were kept down - with a bit of luck they'll all die of frostbite. Our return to the Lakes saw a peeing wet journey all the way with 11 Degrees greeting us at home. Moki's right, apart from the day length it could be November. If I've come back brown, it's not a tan, it's rust.

Really encouraging Ecm 00z this morning, first of all, the second half of this week looks much better than the first half with a ridge of high pressure building in from the west after midweek with increasingly fine and pleasantly warm weather, especially for the south of the UK. Then looking ahead to next week, the ecm shows what would be the start of a more generally settled and warmer spell with high pressure in the ascendancy.

Looking for some light at the end of the tunnel when viewing this morning's GEFS anomalies and looking at the evolution by the 8th things looked promising with height rises to the west and the upper trough weakened and pushed east with the subsequent NE push of the Azores ridge NE. Olez. Not quite as by the 12th the ridge in the Atlantic had retrogressed west and the dreaded trough was back in prime position. Worst case scenario as this allows depressions to wing around the north of the HP on the jet, destination UK. But this upper analysis does seem to be becoming more volatile and I'm not without hope that the earlier trend may become more established leading to increasing Azores influence as perhaps indicated previously by some esteemed posters. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Have we jumped into October? my guess of 18 degrees has quickly gone down the pan, I think many are probably surprised how much of a cooldown we are seeing, a significant one, likely to end up possibly the greater fall in CET values from start to finish since I don't know how long - any stats?

Drizzle and 12 c just waiting for fireworks since its November ..

Can clearly see my breath outside, that is just stupid in the last week of July. 2015 has given so far: A polar low with hours of rain A Cheshire Gap snow setup that turned to rain after an hour A max of 15C on January 9th A max of 13C on July 26th A May that failed to reach 20C once April with 220 hours of sun yet no max over 18C A "record breaking heatwave" that just gave cloudy rubbish No overhead thunderstorms. And irritating NW or W winds on at least 75% of days Oh and ONE warm, sunny day on June 30th.

Folks like Booker don't have a monopoly.The silly stories about Climate change have been far more in abundance regarding what will happen because of it than they have been about "denying" its existence. Much of the media have reacted hysterically to, and given undue balance to, fears being spread about the effects of climate change (kids won't see snow etc) If there's been a consistent tone over the past 30 years about what would happen, that can be seen to be unravelling at time goes by, it's hard to find. Instead the reaction to climate change "scare stories" is becoming a bit like seeing Daily Express predictions of a narnia winter.... "yeah sure!"

The GEFS 00z mean shows good support for a pressure rise with an increasingly fine and warmer spell during the extended outlook, especially for the south of the UK.

Leaves on some trees definitely on the turn towards red and yellow. Blackberries and conkers growing...that Autumn vibe gets a little stronger with each passing day.

If this "summer" follows the pattern of 1962 (which I endured) then your wish could be granted. Check out winter 1962/63, the coldest on record for the 20th century.

The ECM anomalies tonight are similar to the GEFS on Tuesday with the slight height rises to the east and the upper trough orientated favourable for a surface evolution favouring some warmth temporarilly ingressing the southern half of Britain, But the transition after that is worse than the GEFS and by the end of the ext period (the 10th) the upper trough is established over the UK portending cool and unsettled. NOAA tonight is also not optimistic with little change vis the upper trough. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Yes, a pretty poor outlook for pretty much the whole country in shortish term but from Wednesday a somewhat improving picture. Sunday looking to be a bit of a blip, and probably a more than a blip for the North and west. Early signs have been consistent for the improvement to continue thereafter, except for last Friday's models that wanted to keep the dartboards rolling in. Fortunately that seems no longer the case. They could change back but the background signals suggest otherwise.

A woeful late July day, distinctly autumnal despite people wearing shorts and t-shirts trying to instill a sense that it is actually high summer still. Early afternoon temps had fallen to a shockingly low 11 degrees here, under grey leaden wet skies.. we've had many many a milder afternoon in January! The next 4 days look equally shocking temp wise, not expected to get higher than 14 degrees max, on Tuesday just 12 degrees! max.... terrible, feel sorry for anyone on holiday in the Lakes wanting warm weather.. Its miserable.

Yes at that range the trend is your friend and looking at SS's charts there seems to be some agreement on a deep low glancing N Ireland and Nw Scotland and then moving north. By the time it reaches north of Iceland its influence will be all but gone save for the northern Isles. If that verifies you'd imagine that HP would fill the void from the west. This post sounds somewhat like hopecasting as Given recent poor weather and more to deal with this week but it's supported by GP, Tamara and most importantly the Met Office who continue to be bullish as to a fine August. Doommongers beware. We are due a good August. I do hope I'm right!

The tendency has been to move it north and make it transient though. Fine weather both before and after those charts. Indeed I think tHe ECM chart that you have posted would I think give a fine day for England south of roughly Yorkshire.

looks like one of the coldest July days on record here for Tuesday with a high of 12c forecast 12c is the average minimum temperature for July so pretty astonishing. there has been the odd 13c-14c maximum in the absolute shockers like July 2012 and 2008, but nothing at all like this. 1993 had a 13.3c maximum, 1988 a 12.4c maximum in July at Aspatria Met Office site so its really on par with the absolute pits of bad Julys

Just when you hit rock bottom, a whole new chasm of miserable sh*te opens up before you !!!.

Happy High Summer to the Sheffield hills!!! Goodness me.....

First of all you would expect July to be the warmest month out of the first 7 months. The last time June was warmer than July was 1970. And theres still more of this cool rubbish to go so it will end up below average.

16.6c to the 25th 0.7c above the 61 to 90 average Bang on the 81 to 10 average

One day I will go to Malaysia just for this! To think this is the daily norm for them

I'm not sure how this is it's mainly moderate rain and will only last for a few hours especially away from the far SE corner, nothing to get concerned about. LOL