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In all the years I have tried to catch a good lightning strike, downloaded various apps to try and get a shot! My 13 year old daughter has just come down and showed me this taken from her bedroom window on her iPhone!!

Evening all Thought I'd post some pics I took whilst flying back from Rome at 36,000ft this evening . Some nice high level formations over France were on display, but I was cursing the dirty window! First two were taken over the French/Italian border, and the last 3 were near Rouen (nw of Paris)

IOW cell, view to my SE whilst walking the dogs. The Mothership has landed!! Taken with my phone, just wish I had my DSLR!!

Took this across the channel at about 3.30pm as I was coming in to land at Gatwick.

Check out this bad boy about to hit the Isle of Wight!

Another from sandbanks tonight

Just been down the beach and took this picture. That storm is now spreading right out

Netweather Storm Forecast for today issued last night: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess= Storm & Convective Forecast Issued 2015-07-15 21:56:24 Valid: 16/07/2015 0600z to 17/07/2015 0600z CONVECTIVE/STORM OUTLOOK -THURSDAY 16TH JULY Synopsis Upper trough to the west of the British Isles will drift slowly east on Thursday eroding the ridge present earlier in the day. An upper shortwave trough in the strong upper flow rounding the base the upper trough will track northeast and aid the development of an usually deep surface low (for July) that will track N up the western side of Ireland later Thurs and early Fri. Warm front associated with the low will lift north across England and Wales during the day, introducing a warm, humid and increasingly unstable airmass from the south. A cold front will move in from the SW early Friday morning, clearing all but the far north of Scotland by 12z Friday. ... S/SE WALES, CENTRAL, SERN and ERN ENGLAND ... Warm/moist air, characterised by high 0-1km theta-w (wet bulb potential temp) values of around 16-18C, will spread north during the afternoon and evening across the above areas. An elevated mixed layer (EML) on the near continent, characterised by steep lapse rates, will overlap this warm and moist air at the surface, yielding a pool of 400-800 j/kg MLCAPE across the above areas between 18z Thurs - 06z Fri before the cold front removes the unstable plume away to the east. The EML will most likely cap any surface based convection developing, with the temp needed to break the cap unlikely reached. However, falling heights with approaching upper trough and attendant shortwave trough moving NE should create sufficient large scale ascent, coupled with cooling mid-levels, for scattered elevated thunderstorms to develop and merge moving NE later Thursday evening and overnight into Friday morning before clearing into the N Sea. Strengthening mid-upper SWly winds while winds are backed SEly at the surface ahead of the cold front is indicated to provide 40-50 knts of deep-layer (0-6km) shear. This will support multicell line segments or perhaps even high-based supercells capable of producing large rainfall totals in a short space of time leading to flash-flooding, strong wind gusts, frequent cloud-to-ground lightning and an isolated large hail risk - therefore have issued a SLIGHT risk. Storms may merge to form a MCS, ECMWF for example has one moving NE from London across E Anglia/E England to N Sea, with excessive rain and lightning the main risks. ... IRELAND, N IRELAND, WALES, SW ENGLAND and N ENGLAND .... Warm moist air advection ahead of low arriving close to western Ireland and cool air advection in the mid-upper levels, as upper trough edges in from the west, is indicated to yield a few 100 j/kg CAPE later in the evening/overnight. Large scale ascent ahead/along cold front will allow embedded convection with lightning in the general rain spreading in across EIRE/N Ireland in the evening and later Wales and N England. A few surface based storms developing over higher parts of Wales, SW England and Ireland in the late afternoon or early evening can't be ruled out ahead of this thundery rain, rooted in the boundary layer, these storms will benefit from strong deep layer shear and low-level shear and will quickly organise - so hail, flash flooding, strong wind gusts are possible, low LCLs and veering winds with height suggest and isolated tornado also can't be ruled out. A MARGINAL risk of severe weather seems sufficient for these areas given lower CAPE indicated than compared towards SE England

Sorry, but some of this moaning about Estofex is a little bit silly. A Level 2 across an area doesn't mean that apocalyptic supercells will lay siege to every corner of the area noted. It means that there is a <15% chance that severe convective weather will occur within 40km of a point. This means that if you're in Charing Cross and receive a Level 2 forecast six nights in a row, the forecast is correct if severe weather (big hail, very heavy rain, strong convective wind, tornado etc) is detected near you, once. This could be in Luton, Croydon, or in your backyard. Estofex forecast risk, not the weather.

Well that photo came out better than expected ..

I have put together a map with the rough current predictions from the main models. You can probably try and muster from this areas most at risk, although it could still go wrong! Black - General thunderstorm area from NMM/WRF Blue - More intense thunderstorms from NMM/WRF Orange - Risk zone from GFS Yellow - Risk zone from Euro4 Red - Risk zone from Met Office

First rumbles heard here

That's the North Thanet district that Kent storm. Hope a supercell hits South Thanet and drops large hail on them. It's the least they deserve after they voted in another tory over Farage. I know some will disagree, but I couldn't resist.

It's gone very humid/muggy here now and the air feels hard to breathe.....not surprising though as I've just mowed the expanse of back garden and I'm fat and out of shape...lol Back to the weather, low cloud is starting to lift and chinks of warm sunshine trying to break through

This was a Thunderstorm i recorded on 27th may 1999 with the same forecast as we have today. the storms started over the south west then into wales into nothern uk.

Oi kids! Calm your tits! The models are a meer guidance I say this every time! The people that may miss out could get plastered and visa versa. Enjoy the warmth, get the beers out, fire the BBQ up and wait. Simpels.

Frequent lightning looking far-east over Watford way still....but blimey some real close strikes (3,4 sec wait before thunder) just south of me - Gerrards Cross area

12z ECMWF appears to develop an MCS from London area NE up through E Anglia by midnight, presumably from mergers of storms coming up from IOW and new storms forming around and ahead of them from outflow created. Early days ... Nice to see this evening plenty of towering Ac catching the last of the sun's light.

There was a blob leaving Basildon earlier, it was my wife going to bingo

I think the humidity's rising...

Some nice clouds here now

That's what the regional discussion threads were made for

But most of us arent in the southeast mate, i dont care what others get, im only interested in MY weather...

Turned out a nice sunny breezy day here with a maximum temperature of 20c. Cultivated last of turnips and weeds frizzled,also helped these ripen. Backs a bit sore after picking them this evening probably at their peak now .

May be the pessimist in me but I'm beginning to think the primary zone of interest is now passing. Sky flashing increasingly like a beaut to my North while clearing more here...I said to myself I'd give it until midnight, but unless something springs further south or east, that North London cluster may be the indicated MCS

Pretty cool skies overhead

This off in the distant to the south east watching it get bigger and bigger

I think I might actually be in the best spot for tonight. There is even a pub behind me lets you take your beers down into the park on the hill. Here's a pic of my view to the SW... And there's a tree providing shelter from the rain that's suddeNLY STARTED FROM NOWHERE! :-(

Well as expected, the electrical activity is within the 15C line and thats why im not expecting much west of a line from Southampton to Peterborough....

We just need this Greenland high to persist for another 5 months

Erm, is that it?

Hi, I read the forums most days but have now joined. Will keep you up to date with any activity in Southampton. Unfortunately my terms and knowledge is vague (still learning!)

Although I dont live in the SE, can you please extrapolate such a vague comment?

Its only 7pm just the time when the warning started, don't call it a night yet. This is what angers me on here when reading I see some just being impatient.

Lovely scenery there William! Bit different to the fens where I am, much of it below sea level lol. Makes for great viewing of distant lightning and storms though. You can see for absolutely miles!

Afternoon all A rare chance for me to catch up on the state of play model-wise: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/new.nao_index_ensm.html The NAO has been very strongly negative for a few days but there's an overwhelming trend to send the index back to neutrality and even into positive territory by the end of the month. http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015071606/gfs-0-72.png?6 This is where we are or are going to be at the weekend. Pressue remains low to the west and south-west keeping the index suppressed and note the higher pressures over Greenland while the Azores HP is suppressed to the south. http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015071606/gfs-0-252.png?6 This is the more "default" position with HP to the SW and lower pressure to the NW. The problem for heat fans is this doesn't facilitate the draw of hot continental air - it may well be settled and indeed warm but what it wouldn't be is either a) hot or b) thundery. In addition, the synoptic set up favours the south while the north is more exposed to the Atlantic and periods of wind and rain from passing frontal systems. My take on the medium term is the same as many other people's - the south will do well with plenty of warm sunshine while for the north it remains stubbornly unsettled. Temperatures warm and perhaps very warm occasionally in the south, average further north. August starts looking messy but that's a lifetime away - we need to see any evidence of tropical systems disrupting the pattern as can happen.

Just a reminder to those who are probably fretting already. On that Friday 2 weeks ago (as several occasions last year) there was little or nothing on the radars/detectors until AFTER 21.00 and we all know what happened next!

The amount of high pressure and blocking over Greenland and the NP this summer has been unbelievable! I truly believe that without the remnants of Tropical Storm Bill that threw a massive wave into the jet stream and gave us that incredible heat earlier in July, this summer would have been devoid of anything extreme heat-wise. Going forward the models don't appear to show any break to this rinse and repeat pattern of brief heat pulses clipping the SE, while the NW stays cooler and more unsettled. Typical summer weather I guess. We can all just wait until winter returns, when there is sure to be no sign of any height rises over Greenland or the pole, with a big fat ridging Azores high and a long train of atlantic depressions giving us windy and mild weather.

yes, i cannot understand what there is to like about temps over 30°C

I know we'll probably never experience it again, but settling snow in October again would be cool...

I'd imagine it would've been pretty awesome. Think it started up over your way. I just remember it being literally constant strobe lighting with crawlers all over the shop. Think Cambridge got hit mega hard, as did much of Southern, southwestern England and all of the SE quarter.

I think for the east, it will be a case of looking for thunderstorms to develop, a bit like on a typical plume setup. For the west however, it will be more looking for signs of electrification of the heavy rain. I don't think the west will see any actual cells tonight, just more general thundery rain if anything. And no I'm not being a pessimist.

If we get anything here then I'll be buying everyone whatever they want out of the lottery money I'm winning Saturday. In two minds...to charge cameras or not?!

Interesting day for weather watchers in the SE, today. Here's the skew-Ts for Heathrow, for this afternoon leading into the evening, Essentially, not too much potential all afternoon, however, around 18-21z the atmosphere changes to moderate convective potential (K=32) with likely thunderstorms (T=49) with the very faint risk of an isolated severe storm. Despite some forecasts suggesting tornadoes, this seems unlikely despite significant PBL shear (EHI (not shown) = 0.44) which, despite only maginal instability (LI=-1) might be enough to break the cap (CIN=42) Where storms/cells do form they are likely to be torrential (PW=3.32) with over an inch of rain falling in a very short space of time. Shear and low-level fast jet are today's triggers that might intensive cells to storm, and the energy is certainly there (DP=14.4) especially if these combine late in the afternoon with expected surface heating. In this neck of the woods large hail and frequent lightning seem unlikely (CAPE=340) Potential for SE starts around 18z Thurs, fading by 03z Friday. Happy storm hunting!

I disagree to be honest....all the respected forecasters and posters are quite bullish about tonight......I think that the lack of posts at this time is probably more to with members working than anything else. I appreciate your own anxiety about storms so hopefully you won't see anything tonight, but I feel plenty other folk will see something tonight

Day 1 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 16 Jul 2015 - 05:59 UTC Fri 17 Jul 2015 ISSUED 21:53 UTC Wed 15 Jul 2015 ISSUED BY: Dan On Thursday, an Atlantic low will be located to the SW of Ireland, moving progressively due north. At the surface, a warm front will migrate northwards across the southern half of Britain, allowing poleward-advection of a very warm, moist low-level airmass across the aforementioned areas. The arrival of this high ThetaW air will be quite late in the day, as diurnal heating begins to subside, and will probably act as a cap to any potential surface-based convection given limited maximum temperatures in the upper 20s Celsius, despite increasing dewpoints through the evening hours. However, there is some scope across parts of Wales/West Country for isolated sfc-based convection to develop late afternoon/evening hours, given 700-900 Jkg-1 SBCAPE, increased forcing from aloft and some surface convergence. Forecast profiles look quite dry, and so whilst convective cloud will likely develop, it is uncertain whether it will reach a depth sufficient for lightning activity - hence for now we remain with an ISOL and will monitor convective trends for any potential upgrades. Greatest attention is then turned to the potential for elevated thunderstorms to develop during the mid/late evening hours and thereafter, as the forward-side of the large-scale Atlantic upper trough, and an attendant shortwave, serve as the focus for convective initiation. Naturally there is still a reasonable amount uncertainty as to the exact detail in development and areas affected. Current thinking is a few scattered thunderstorms may develop during the mid/late evening hours across some southern counties of England, with activity becoming more widespread as the plume axis tracks northeastwards, eventually exiting to the North Sea - areas at greatest risk are thus highlighted with a SLGT and MDT (20z-04z), with instability increasing (but upper forcing decreasing) as one heads farther to the SE. At present there appears to be a lack of upper forcing to generate imported elevated convection from France (especially Cherbourg and environs), and hence for now Channel and adjacent coastal areas remain at ISOL. Several models also simulate an increase in lightning potential over the Irish Sea, running NNEwards into adjacent parts of Cumbria / S/SE Scotland 00z-06z. Have included a SLGT here for now to highlight slightly higher chances of lightning, albeit this signal less clear compared with NWP guidance yesterday. Retaining SLGT for now, but may need a downgrade if this trend continues. Conversely, parts of Ireland/Northern Ireland may need an upgrade to SLGT, especially northern and western areas. http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2015-07-16

Should be interesting who is right tonight because the Met O currently disagree with Estofex and the GFS. For example the Met O only describe isolated thundery showers for London whereas for E Anglia/ E Midlands they forecast thunderstorms with frequent lightning. The Euro4 model backs this suggesting much of the S/SE will see nothing as the storms will fire up across the E Midlands. I am however viewing the 18Z and shall await the 0Z. The GFS on the other hand suggests more widespread activity across much of the S/SE with this moving NE.

Storm & Convective Forecast Issued 2015-07-15 21:56:24 Valid: 16/07/2015 0600z to 17/07/2015 0600z CONVECTIVE/STORM OUTLOOK -THURSDAY 16TH JULY Synopsis Upper trough to the west of the British Isles will drift slowly east on Thursday eroding the ridge present earlier in the day. An upper shortwave trough in the strong upper flow rounding the base the upper trough will track northeast and aid the development of an usually deep surface low (for July) that will track N up the western side of Ireland later Thurs and early Fri. Warm front associated with the low will lift north across England and Wales during the day, introducing a warm, humid and increasingly unstable airmass from the south. A cold front will move in from the SW early Friday morning, clearing all but the far north of Scotland by 12z Friday . ... S/SE WALES, CENTRAL, SERN and ERN ENGLAND ... Warm/moist air, characterised by high 0-1km theta-w (wet bulb potential temp) values of around 16-18C, will spread north during the afternoon and evening across the above areas. An elevated mixed layer (EML) on the near continent, characterised by steep lapse rates, will overlap this warm and moist air at the surface, yielding a pool of 400-800 j/kg MLCAPE across the above areas between 18z Thurs - 06z Fri before the cold front removes the unstable plume away to the east. The EML will most likely cap any surface based convection developing, with the temp needed to break the cap unlikely reached. However, falling heights with approaching upper trough and attendant shortwave trough moving NE should create sufficient large scale ascent, coupled with cooling mid-levels, for scattered elevated thunderstorms to develop and merge moving NE later Thursday evening and overnight into Friday morning before clearing into the N Sea. Strengthening mid-upper SWly winds while winds are backed SEly at the surface ahead of the cold front is indicated to provide 40-50 knts of deep-layer (0-6km) shear. This will support multicell line segments or perhaps even high-based supercells capable of producing large rainfall totals in a short space of time leading to flash-flooding, strong wind gusts, frequent cloud-to-ground lightning and an isolated large hail risk - therefore have issued a SLIGHT risk. Storms may merge to form a MCS, ECMWF for example has one moving NE from London across E Anglia/E England to N Sea, with excessive rain and lightning the main risks. ... IRELAND, N IRELAND, WALES, SW ENGLAND, N ENGLAND .... Warm moist air advection ahead of low arriving close to western Ireland and cool air advection in the mid-upper levels, as upper trough edges in from the west, is indicated to yield a few 100 j/kg CAPE later in the evening/overnight. Large scale ascent ahead/along cold front will allow embedded convection with lightning in the general rain spreading in across EIRE/N Ireland in the evening and later Wales and N England. A few surface based storms developing over higher parts of Wales, SW England and Ireland in the late afternoon or early evening can't be ruled out ahead of this thundery rain, rooted in the boundary layer, these storms will benefit from strong deep layer shear and low-level shear and will quickly organise - so hail, flash flooding, strong wind gusts are possible, low LCLs and veering winds with height suggest and isolated tornado also can't be ruled out. A MARGINAL risk of severe weather seems sufficient for these areas given lower CAPE indicated towards SE England.

As the nights grow longer, Laserguy will grow stronger.

17.3c to the 14th 1.4c above the 61 to 90 average 1.0c above the 81 to 10 average