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A period of cool, unsettled weather has been present during the last few days. However, change appears to be on the way, especially for (south)eastern areas of the UK. It is clear that temperatures will begin to rise from tomorrow on, but might there even be a period of very warm temperatures (say, 25+*C) on our doorstep, or not? In this post I will discuss the current setup of the weather, and look into detail about how the situation could develop over the next few days or so. Current situation For the current situation, take a look at the synoptic analysis as presented by the KNMI (Dutch weather institute) below: KNMI surface level pressure and frontal analysis as of 12 UTC 23-06. Courtesy: KNMI. Note that the arrows have been drawn in by myself as an illustration. As of the moment of writing, we are located in relatively cold air (to be illustrated below) to the south of a frontal system resembling the polar front (frontal zone to the south of the UK over the Alps). Two distinct areas of low pressure can be discerned, one being a complex area located over Scandinavia. As a result of this system, cool maritime polar air (blue arrow) flows out from the north over Western Europe with a couple of troughs moving along. This system has been the culprit of the cool and unsettled weather over the past few days, but will not be an important player in our weather anymore. Another mature low pressure area is located to the west of Ireland. A frontal system is associated with the low, and this will be of importance for our weather in the coming days or so. The relatively inactive warm front currently located over Ireland is the harbinger of more warm subtropical air masses, which will take hold of the UK soon. In between these two systems, a weak area of high pressure is located over the UK, which is bringing less unsettled conditions than seen before. This high is surpressing the activity of the warm front itself. Even though it is weak yet, it will become quite important as well in the period to come. To illustrate the change in air masses associated to the warm front, take a look at the Eumetsat airmass satellite image below: EUMETSAT airmass satellite image and 500 hPa heights (green contours) as of 18 UTC 23-06. Courtesy: Eumetsat. Note the polar air extending all the way from northern Scandinavia into the Netherlands, and warm air (green) advancing from Spain northward towards the UK. The 500 hPa heights also nicely explain the current synoptic setting at the surface, with a deep 500 hPa-trough located over the Netherlands and ridging occurring to the west of Ireland from the south. Also, the aforementioned frontal systems (also visible at the KNMI image) can be clearly seen by the cloud bands present. Short-term prospects For the short term-prospects, I will use GFS charts as an illustration. Two days from now, the ridge of high pressure present has become more prevalent across the UK, as can be seen below: GFS MSLP and 500 hPa heights, 12Z run T+48. Next to this ridge, it can also be seen that the low pressure area to the west of Iceland (and associated 500 hPa trough) has deepened somewhat and made a closer approach to the UK itself. With a low pressure system so nearby, conditions will never be fully settled, especially in Ireland. The remains of the low pressure area which has been dominating the weather over the UK and western Europe are still visible over northern Scandinavia. It is also nice to take a look at the 850 hPa temperatures associated with this setting: GFS 850 hPa temperatures, 12Z run T+48. A first 'plume' of relatively warm air is advancing from the south into the low pressure area over the ocean. This is NOT the 'plume' that may bring very warm conditions to the UK. Also, relatively cool 850 hPa temperatures are present over Central Europe, associated with the low over Scandinavia. Three days later (so 5 days from now) the situation appears to be becoming more and more zonal: GFS MSLP and 500 hPa heights, 12Z run T+120. When one focusses at the 500 hPa heights (colours), one can see that the isolines are more or less running west to east, indicative for zonality. However, taking a closer look reveals there is still a weak ridge present over Western Europe, with associated weak high pressure activity centered over Normandy at the surface. All other models and ensembles basically agree with this setting, which shows itself as a very small range of possibilities in temperature in the plume for London (see later in this post). Spanish plume? As has been alluded to by some of the posts above, there is a possibility of a Spanish Plume developing by mid next week (i.e. a flow of very warm air flowing from Spain towards Western Europe, often followed by thunderstorms; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_plume). To reveal the synoptic pattern associated with it, the GFS ensemble forecast for 10 days out is included below: GFS Ensemble MSLP and 500 hPa heights, 12Z run T+240. On average, there appears to be agreement on a deep 500 hPa trough located somewhere to the west or over the UK, and a 500 hPa strong ridge is positioned somewhere over Central Europe. Such synoptic patterns are very favourable for advancing warm air towards Western Europe. However, as is usually the case with forecasts for 10 days out, the exact placement of the ridge and trough, and associated surface features will determine the ultimate fate of where the warm air will move to. Little can be said yet about where the warm air will land, but it seems to be probable at least that a burst of very warm air will advance to the north from Spain somewhere next week. The ECMWF ensembles (not shown here) also agree with this forecast. To show what kind of possibilities still lie within the given average synoptic setting, take a look at the ECMWF and GFS operational forecasts for 8 days out: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1922.gif (GFS) http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.gif (ECMWF) Both models show a setting not particularly favourable for very warm air advancing towards the UK (all too far east if one takes a look at the 850 hPa temperatures, though it has to be said that if one looks one or two days earlier, both models show some warm air also touching the UK). Yet the most striking is that the GFS is much further east with the trough than the ECMWF is. Hence, the warm air is already much further east than on the ECMWF on this particular date. This is just to show how that, despite the upper air pattern beiing pretty certain, small changes can still have major implications on the weather to be experienced at the surface. A final illustration for this uncertainty is the ECMWF plume of London from today 00Z run: ECMWF 00Z ensemble temperature forecasts for London, consisting of 50 individual calculations. Courtesy: MeteoGroup. Up to the 29th of July, little spread is present in the ensembles. However, after that the spread increases dramatically, with broadly speaking a range of temperatures between 17 and 30*C being possible for next Tuesday. Conclusion It is clear that the weather is going to stabilize and warm up somewhat for the UK over the next few days. Afterwards, it seems certain that a circulation favourable for warm air advection from the south will set up, with a ridge over central Europe and a trough somewhere over or west of the UK. However, the exact positioning of the aforementioned systems (which is of course everything but a done deal for more than 5 days out) could be the difference between a series of very warm days and very cool weather for southeastern parts of the UK in the near future. The northwestern part of the UK appears to remain mostly unsettled though. Possibly more opportunities for some very warm days lie ahead behind the start of next month, as has been alluded to by Tamara. An interesting period in weather forecasting lies ahead, that is for sure. EDIT: In a few weeks time I will try to post some updates in the teleconnective thread as well. Sources: http://www.weer.nl/ http://www.wetterzentrale.de/ http://knmi.nl/ http://eumetrain.org/eport/euro_18.php?width=1366&height=768&date=2015062218&region=euro

I wrote a summary the other day which differed to that appraisal/interpretation, and I'm not sure that the professionals (such as the METO), with the better experience and knowledge and also better access to greater data than most of us internet pundits, would agree with the "cool and unsettled" headline either - based on current guidance anyway The part that is easier to relate to is there being no sign of "sustained heat" - but then achieving this in the UK is often as elusive in a standard winter as achieving sustained cold in winter. Much as said in my previous post. As outlined in the previous summary, the watchword is changeable - not homogenously cool however, and many southern and eastern parts look set to see a fair amount of warm/very warm and humid weather. Under the changing atmospheric regime from a Nina to more tuned in Nino influence, we see mainland Europe heat up quite significantly from the south. In relative terms, perhaps heat up rather more than is the usual for early/mid summer. This change is now firmly signposted within AAM tendency with, as suspected previously, no further negative tendency Phase 1 signposted in the Global Wind Oscillation orbit. The trend is firmly now into low amplitude +AAM tendency http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/nschiral/research/gwo/gfs1.png This is important, as we turn a page away from the North Atlantic being flooded with renewed bursts of below average temperatures. However, as discussed below, we still have the legacy of a long period of cyclical low AAM imprint to deal with -which helped perpetuate and imprint those cold SST anomalies through persistent trajectory of the jet stream angling down E/SE from Canada and Greenland during most of the winter and spring. As mentioned the other day, the indicated GWO orbit supports the persistence of the Atlantic trough and a downstream pressure rise through southern and mainland Europe, close at times to SE UK. To achieve a further adjustment of the jet stream further NW, taking the main upper trough further NW, a further boost in AAM tendency would help. Such a possible re-cycle continues to be a watch for the longer term. Here is especially where perspective and reality about "sustained heat" (which, expectantly, gets mentioned a lot on this thread) needs to managed. There is indeed a lot of heat to our south and east - which is not going to move far away at any time - and further jet stream adjustment, as described, will assist the process of re-distributing that further north and west. However, with the cold SST anomalies as they are over our nearby ocean, extra effort is going to be required for the UK to be far enough away from a temperature gradient boundary that will naturally occur and spawn troughing where these temperature contrasts meet. Seasonal wave lengths should play their part in assisting the pattern more favourably for us, but, as stated previously, it will be a gradual and almost insidious process - starting to occur more probably the further we head towards mid summer and beyond. Into the medium term, this doesn't mean cool and unsettled conditions are going to prevail nationwide. It does mean though that changeable conditions remain the watchword, and as one who prefers just pleasant summer warmth rather than heat, it is not said with any personal bias that the greatest chance of tapping into some of that extra heat continues to be south eastern parts of the UK over the coming 10 to 15 days at least anyway For those interested in looking for hope of some at least better sustained heat ( and those in the NW would be glad of any warmth I am sure ) then for the time being its waiting on further developments as we head through the coming month @rbw Yes, it is quite possible As I said the other day, its only quite small adjustments to the jet stream that will mean significantly warmer conditions over a wider area - with those further north west who would most notice the difference, even though the highest uppers will always be further south and east

One thing that isn't misleading is the title of this thread - Model output discussion! So please can we discuss the met office forecasts in the appropriate place rather than in here, thanks.

Since there was nothing worth posting on the Gfs 12z I see nothing wrong with posting these Gem 12z charts this evening. Let's hope we see heatwave conditions next week. The GEM has shown remarkable continuity from the 00z so let's hope it's on the right track.

Bit like Cherry-Picking really I'd admit, but the 00Z GEM (which will soon become out of date as the GEM 12Z comes out) continues to offer a treat for those over Southern UK who would like to see some hot, plumey, conditions - the model shows some very hot air getting pumped into Southern and South-Eastern areas via warm Southerly/South-Westerly flow with the 20*C 850 hPa temperatures brushing the far South-East at times. Probably one of the better operational models this morning for hot weather for the middle of next week: North-Western areas again would probably remain cooler and perhaps cloudier. As such, not totally brilliant run for all of the UK in FI (if very warm and plume-like conditions is what you are after), unless your over Southern/South-Eastern UK. A chance, though, that any monstrous storms that develop over the UK, most especially towards the South-East could be slow moving in the slack Southerly flow. Without running the risk of trying to over analyse model runs in FI, would perhaps ideally need a bit more of a negative tilt to the surface and upper Lows in the Atlantic to back the flow over the UK more to the South-East. All of that happening while ensuring blocking to the East of the UK in mainland Europe remains robust to advect the very warm air over Southern UK further North. (something that the 00Z GEM does kinda do at 216 hours. Have, however, doodled on the chart to show what I mean): At least something along those lines should hot and possibly thundery conditions still be something you want to see. Think I remember someone saying that getting areas of Low Pressure in the Atlantic to dig far enough South to the West of the UK, help aided by an area of amplified heights to the West of it in the Western Atlantic area towards North-Eastern Northern America, could ensure heights build strongly to the East of the UK over Europe. This of which being something to look out for when seeing possibilities of hot stormy weather developing on future model runs. Personally, and again it is still one run despite yesterday's 00Z GEM showing 20*C 850 hPa temperatures over Southern/Central UK, I do feel the GEM is overdoing how far South troughing digs in the Atlantic - the pattern just seems a touch too amplified and looks a bit odd. And I think to get the 20*C 850 hPa temperature line over the British Isles is rare, particularly for Northern UK, and would require an exceptional set-up. But not totally unfeasible. Anyway, getting a bit carried away now since these possibilities are clearly still a while away. Will probably be one of those cases where a middle-ground solution occurs between the 06Z GFS's eagerness to quickly push the pattern too East and the GEM's more hotter plume-like conditions. Should the plume fail the mission it's not a complete disaster with further opportunities down the line (and hopefully not one of those situations where the plumes keep getting stuck, like super-glue, in the dreamland zone. I guess, though, the failure of the possible hot and thundery weather would be good news for those who despise that kind of weather). There's at least some trends to see some possible warm weather next week, particularly across the South-East of the UK closer to any areas of High Pressure over mainland Europe, with a flow from the South-West at times. Edit: Think it is how Tamara says, looking out for further evolutions regarding the models and the weather patterns to see how things shape up.

Met Office text is for unsettled and warm to start July, and then unsettled and cool from the 7th. No sign yet of any sustained heat.

The Gfs 6z saved the best until last, temperatures into the 90's F in the south through early July.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON TUESDAY JUNE 23RD 2015. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure will cover Southern Britain with a warm front crossing East and NE over NW Britain tonight and tomorrow. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry and bright weather but somewhat more unsettled interludes too with some showers in places especially in the North. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow across the UK breaking up over the next few days before settling in a strong for the time of year West to East motion across the UK from late this week. It then backs to a South to North flow for a time later next week. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows a set pattern in the next week with several days of warm and fine weather interrupted on several occasions by a trough of Low pressure crossing East over the UK bringing a spell of rain followed by fresher air on a westerly breeze. Then later next week things turn more generally changeable and cooler with rain or showers at times for most as Low pressure moves in close to or over the UK from the West. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run follows the trend of the operational in full this morning and though day to day differences in synoptics are notable next week the message of a lot of fine weather with just brief cooler weather following several bands of rain and then more generally changeable conditions thereafter is very much the message from GFS this morning. THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today indicate High pressure out to the SW with a ridge slightly further away than recently, sufficiently so to allow fronts to cross from the West or NW at times. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO today shows High pressure to the South and SE of the UK with several days of fine and warm or very warm weather in the SE for a time before fresher and cooler conditions following a cold front passes over on Friday. Then with High pressure to the South and Low to the NW a SW flow will carry rain at times to the North and West with better conditions in the South and East. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts mirror the raw data pretty well this morning with High pressure always closest to the South but with occasional fronts crossing from the West each bringing thicker cloud and occasional rain especially in the North and West. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120. GEM GEM today shows Low pressure areas crossing the North with a Westerly flow for all areas from the weekend with rain at times especially in the North. The South flirts with warm and dry weather at times and as next week progresses the model shows hot air wafting North close to the SE and at the same time Low pressure to the West of the UK pushing East into the humid air and sparking some thundery rain or storms late in the period. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM shows a Westerly flow too at the weekend with some rain at times towards the North with very little further South. Then as we move into next week there seems a desire to slacken the pattern while maintaining a light SW drift. With warm and humid air close to the South some thundery showers are indicated by the middle of next week almost anywhere. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif. ECM ECM this morning is very supportive of West or SW winds blowing across the UK for much of the period covered by this morning's run. While warm or hot and humid air is never far away from the South and SE it is for the most parts kept the other side of the channel with the UK under the influence of Low pressure to the North and NW with occasional rain and showers almost anywhere at times but precious little for much of the time across the South and SE excepting the risk of an isolated thunderstorm or two if any troughs from the West engage the hot air to the SE. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows Low pressure out to the West and NW with a slack SW flow likely across the British Isles. In such a pattern the South and East would continue to see the driest and warmest conditions with the North and West at risk of rain or showers at times http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends today show a weak Westerly or SW flow across the UK longer term. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.7 pts followed by UKMO at 95.5 pts and GFS at 95.5 too. At 5 days ECM leads GFS at 85.8 pts with GFS at 83.1 pts and UKMO at 81.5 pts. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 48.9 over 45.6. Then at Day 10 ECM remains ahead of GFS at 32.3 pts to 22.2 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig MY THOUGHTS We lie on the edge of some true Summer weather over the next few weeks. The European continent is expected to warm up big time in the coming days as an Atlantic depression to the NW of the UK pumps up some very warm air from Spain across most European nations. For the UK we lie right on the periphery of this but far enough away to not benefit from the very highest temperatures that they look like receiving. Instead we will have to put up with a warm SW feed delivering plenty of humid, fine and bright weather in the South and East while the North and West are shown to stay far more changeable and cooler with rain at times. There will of course be an ebb and flow in these conditions with the hot air to the SE possibly making it into the SE at times and if that happes at the same time as a trough feeds in from the unsettled NW some electrical storms could occur very locally. This is hinted at by some output later next week. Nevertheless, it looks unlikely that High pressure will conquer a rejuvenated Jet flow across the UK enough to spread the hottest air far into the UK before it gets pushed back towards the SE again. So as it stands this morning it's a case of so near and yet so far for big time heat but don't despair there is nothing unpleasant or threatening in the charts this morning which means a lot of fine June and early July weather looks likely with the odd shower or outbreak of rain always possible but as usual for this time of year, mostly in the NW. Next update from 08:00 Wednesday June 24th 2015

A warm welcome home to the Netweather chasers after a fantastic roller coaster season. Floods, hail, tornados, lightning, thousands of miles and even the Northern lights have entertained us for the last seven weeks or so. A big thank you from me for sharing your stories, and even allowing me to catch you up on a couple of occasions. The bonus shelf cloud and nocturnal tornado we shared together near Colby, KS was one of the highlights of my chase. Roll on 2016 😎

I thought ensembles were there as a gauge of the likely accuracy of operationals, and to indicate likely future trends? The most discernible trend I can see is for Europe's hot weather to extend gradually north and northwest...As for day-to-day details; we all know how unpredictable they are... Welcome to the forum, Alderc.

ECM spreads show what is probably the worse case scenario with a system crossing the UK later next week Uncertainty reigns! Incidentally, what is definitely going to happen over the next 7/10 days is the removal of the se European low anomoly. things are definitely changing but what does it mean for the UK?

Not sure if the model output is bad, or if everyone is in one of those "The GFS is always right" moods ECM shows a modest plume event, the UKMO looks okayish, the GEM is mental, the JMA actually is close to the GEM solution, only the GFS looks pretty poor going into next week.

But the models don't control the weather, Alderc; they merely give us an indication of things to come, that is better than simple guesswork...But, whatever the models 'say' - temps will easily exceed 20C somewhere, this coming weekend...And, as for what'll occur 15-days from now?? Then your guess is a s good (or as bad) as mine.

Vile and disgusting 2007/2012 abomination is how this summer is turning out. Just 6 hours of sun in the past week now -less than half the total of the dullest week of last winter Suffice to say if the current model output is anywhere near accurate this will go down as the worst ever second half of June. With seemingly no end to this permacast hell, the sunshine total for the second half of the month could be as low as 15-20 hours. A disgrace at any time of year Temperatures continuing at joke levels too. Just 11C now. Thankfully I'll be enjoying real summer in Ibiza in 16 hours time. Will be the first time I've experienced even 20C since being in Tenerife last November. Incredibly the last time I experienced it here was on 16th August as the only day to reach it since then (25th September) I was in Edinburgh. Just ridiculous and even the 1960s - the worst decade for warmth in the 20th Century - wasn't as grim as this.

Regardless of the exact path of the plume for next Monday/Tuesday, longer term the ensembles continue to go in the same direction - between T168 and T240, the trough to our west actually retreats slightly and the upper high creeps into southern parts of the UK more and more. Both GFS and ECM show this, and have consistently shown this. I suggest therefore that the first attempt at the plume is unlikely to be the end of the story for summery weather.

Well, that's a little misleading - it says it may be slightly cooler than average in the west, but around or just above average in the east and southeast - very warm at first. So again, location dependent.

No run should be ignored, No matter what it shows. Lets wait and see..

Before the will it or won't it plume of next week the east of the country may have some interest on Friday. Even Friday is a long way off though and the risk is small, but there could be a few rumbles for the usual suspects (Lincolnshire). There is nothing big on the horizon until next weeks possible plume. Although it has only about a 1 in 4 chance of coming off it is at least keeping us storm nuts interested. I won't be getting excited to the same level I did about the last one though until I see a huge black wall cloud moving over with frequent lightning and constant thunder

Not only a hot start to July on this run but just look at the cape could be some torrential thunderstorms as well as the heat Humidity levels extremely high as well touching 98.6F in the south

Yes the ECMWF is more progressive as BA says, The GFS pushes the High further North over the East of the UK. With Temps possibly touching 35C in the S/E.. Will be interesting how the Models play this out over the coming days.

Aberdeen last night.

As much as many of us don't want the 12z GFS conditions to verify, its still worth a mention as it will affect those on holiday/with outdoor plans etc.

Attribution of climate extreme events http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2657.html Jeff Masters http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3025

Great summary as usual Tamara, and probably not far off. Don't you think, though, with heat being so close by on the continent, that it is actually too close to call further than 7 days out? I can certainly foresee a scenario where, from D7 to D14, most of England has a week of well above average temperatures - simply through a 200 mile shift on the current ensemble position?

I think calling for either recovery or disaster based on short term weather patterns is equally pointless. The sea ice cover is still quite low. Melt pond predictions are going for an extent less than the last 2 years but greater than 2012 and 2007. There are a lot of warm SSTs around but the weather patterns haven't been too bad for the central Arctic and the extra volume should make the ice a little tougher to melt. What will happen during the rest of the summer is a mystery to all, so for now it's just a case of wait, watch and speculate.

Looking at the Ecm 00z ensemble mean, one thing we can be sure about next week is it's not going to be cool, the southeast in particular looks like having generally warm / very warm and humid weather next week and most of the UK looks rather warm, low 20's celsius with the south / southeast having a more continental southerly flow, nearer mid to high 20's celsius. The north and west of the BI look very unsettled next week with spells of heavy rain but with fine intervals and temps around average. The southeast is likely to have the best of the sunshine and dry weather but with a risk of occasional heavy and thundery rain. It's a fairly typical summer nw/se split with lower heights to the northwest and continental high pressure to the southeast.

A big welcome Alderc and your post sums up what i was about to post ,and if projected low pressure also from other charts arrives we will be chasing for a day wth the bbq ,but as always things could move back later ,thats the weather game ,lets hope it changes cheers

Latest EC32 update Starting with Tuesday 30th the familiar scenario of trough to the west and ridge reaching over the SE of England. The trough more influential but temps very warm in England. By Tuesday the seventh the trough has weakened and the ridge moved east and the Azores HP pushed north. Thus essentially a westerly flow over the UK and temps around average except in the SE. By Tuesday the 14th the ridge to the east becoming a general area of weak HP, increasing pressure in western Atlantic and a continuation of the westerly flow. Temps a tad above average in the south, average in the north of England and below in Scotland. Essentially there is not much change with this scenario until the end of the run on the 24th July. The Azores HP controlling proceedings centred SW mid Atlantic and thus retaining a westerly flow Temps around average in England and below in Scotland. Summary Some very warm weather between the 30th and the 8th July but apart from that generally pleasant in July, dry and no breaking any temp records and in fact generally perhaps a touch below average in Scotland.

Looking at the ensemble means you've posted there suggests to me that flooding rains could be just as likely as any heatwave, especially given a situation where we get a slack low interacting with those high continental uppers. All to play for really. Either situation would be better from a weather enthusiast's POV than this boring never ending NW'ly we've endured for months.

My very basic ability to read charts tells me there are two bites at the plume cherry. Bite one is around 30th June, well discussed here, but bite two is towards 3/4th July as the trough near to the UK lifts out allowing another possible surge from the south?

Have been following the Cfs a lot recently and to me it seemed to be showing a warm month? You do only seem to post these charts when negative anomalies appear....

I hope your right knocker, I'm off to the British GP 2nd-5th July & i really don't fancy being knee deep in mud.

5.8C here in southern Ireland last night, which doesn't even make it into the top 5 coldest minima of the month.

EL NINO only means one thing for Scotland, crap summer, soon to be followed into the freezer before Hogmanay. You have been warned ! C

Good man. I am sure the gods will deliver at some time with a few hot summer days. Looks crap again for you in the forecast but should be a bit warmer. Having to pay for central heating costs on Mid Summer would sending me packing back to Austrian Alps at a far lick of pace. Looks like hoting up for a few days here on the Sussex coast. Can almost see France from here and I think the continued heat is just going to be a mirage for most but tantalisingly close to be very jealous of our Gallic friends / Any consolation for you lot in the northern part of Great Britain, our Swedish friends are suffering the same fate. My daughter has had heating on for 8 months !! C

The ecm op continues to be progressive compared to the ens mean and anomolys.

OK then, it's one last day of the horribly cool NW'ly wind and then we're into a much warmer W/SW flow. Hurrah! Really cool start here at 11C and it's dull and grey. I'm working outside all of today so I'm taking a warm fleece. Hopefully the sun will break through and I can take the thing off. After all, it is the 23rd JUNE!!

Here Mushy

Seems my worries about the noaa 8-14 day chart flattening out so far is misplaced and if anything it intesifies the euro high suggesting more of a southerly influence. Sorry on tablet cant post the chart. Looking like yet another op vs anom stand off, which will be most accurate, heres hoping the anoms are going to be correct.

If the anomaly charts are correct then the trough tending to dig south and not really moving east, at least at 500mb, is how things are most likely to pan out. Just how much upper or indeed surface feed comes off the continent is still open to discussion, well that is my view for what it is worth.

Don't forget Staines dude, you live much closer to the Atlantic Ocean than I do, therefore you are at its mercy.

Well we seem to have a potential date lined up for the heat to surge northwards towards the UK, this being around the 30th of June. Again though there is a lot of uncertainty on how the Atlantic trough will behave, we could see a system run along the jet and flatten things out, conversely we could see something appear upstream an dig the trough further south aiding the amplification of the pattern. Still a lot of time to go, that said the next 5/6 days look pretty set apart from the timings of weather systems and as such how warm it could get over the UK. 25/26C still looks likely for Friday. ECM ens for the 30th GFS GEM The ECM ens still looks positive, the GFS and GEM suites are less keen.

The ECM ens has more of a southerly flow later on if we do get this temperatures would soon respond with the heat over mainland Europe If the low sits far enough west we'll tap into the heat over mainland Europe lots to play for yet

Arctic ice showing increased density over previous years. Northwest passage blocked for hundreds of miles in the Beaufort sea area by very thick sea ice

You'd think after the last two months it could only get better but it just seems to keep on getting worse and worse. Stupidly cold, dull and drizzly under the permacast which has been in place since Wednesday other than when it lifted for a couple of hours yesterday afternoon. Just 10.1 hours sun now in the last week. The dullest of the entire year by a long way beating the previous total of 15 hours for 5th to 11th January. At the time of year with the longest daylight it is a sick joke and yet again begs the question what the hell has happened to our weather? Pig sick of enduring summer after summer with less sunshine than the winter months. There has not been such a dire run of summers as those experienced since 2007 at any time since the Little Ice Age. That's now five Junes in 9 years that have produced a spell of this excruciating permacast like nothing I could ever remember before. The outlook is so desperately poor it looks as though it will be two years on the trot when there has been relentless overcast for the second half of June.At least in 2014 we had some good weather at the start. This month has been more akin to 2007 or 2012 I even enjoyed last November more than this revolting June and that was the dullest month for 12 years. Says it all about how much I loath and detest this absolutely disgusting month that delivers gloom and misery year in year out and the worst weather always at the weekend. At least the few sunny days of last November coincided with the weekends.

16.2c. The cold Atlantic is ruining things.

Early days yet, but I am already planning on perhaps heading to France or Belgium for this possible plume event.

They did make a prediction for this year, it was in Neven's previous update: Based on our simulated May melt pond fraction we predict a September 2015 mean ice extent for the Arctic of 5.1 +/- 0.5 Mill. km2. Our value is slightly lower than in 2013 (5.4 Mill. km2) and 2014 (5.3 Mill. km2), but considerably larger than in 2012 (3.6 Mill. km2). http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2015/06/melt-pond-may-2015.html

What a strange post. Some 'folk' are falling for the usual alarmist (clap)trap of assuming a graph trend line can only go one way.

Record cold continues in Greenland the reason is cold sea in north Atlantic