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I don't think I have seen the level of heat potentially being predicted to our south for a long time, okay we get the 20C isotherm over Spain regularly but by the end of the ECM run we see 850s approaching 30C over the central interior of Spain with the 20C isotherm engulfing most of Italy, France and Switzerland. 100F possible in many locations with temperatures peaking into the low to mid 40s Celsius in the Spanish interior. It is really something if that came off, that said if the day 10 chart did come off we would have a different concern.. I am no expert but I don't think we would be seeing a band of patchy rain from that...... I am going to be blunt, I do get the feeling that we could get something big occurring over the UK around the turn of the month, be it the first significant heatwave since 2006 or a plume event that would blow last years event out of the water. Something feels right here personally and to be honest when Spain and France go into the furnace, rarely does the UK escape with getting at least a whiff of it.

As discussed above, the focus of Atmospheric trends continues to move away from the extended period of Spring-like low angular momentum phases that have surpressed seasonal temperatures, and into the transitional dawn period towards a Nino driven NH pattern, which, as modelled, is actively starting to build real summer heat to our south. The jet stream, picking up the seasonal temperature gradient differential as heat builds to our south and intereacts with the demise of the late season cool air pooling to our north, is augmented in the shorter term by tropical storm Bill - and this has rather exaggerated the emphasis of extended changeability to our weather. For us for the time being, changeability continues to be the theme, with, as suggested might be the case, the GWO orbit set to be in an attractor state rather mired towards the vicinity of Phase 0, like a wasps legs glazed fixed to the bottom of a honey jar. But this is less than half the story - as discussed further below The NW/SE split, much mentioned in recent posts, continue to be the buzz phrase, but it will take less and less to change prospects as time passes with only quite marginal adjustments to the jet stream pattern required to change coolest rain further north west into much more appealing conditions. With this in mind, its worth remembering that whatever the weather, or suggested weather, this is the UK - and being a traffic light geographical crossroads for hemispheric weather patterns, and next to a vast ocean, persistent continental type summer heat is simply not our default pattern. Seasonal expectations need to be adjusted accordingly, in the same way as bitterly cold easterlies and northerlies in winter are a treat (for those so disposed to such weather) rather than a regular meal to be savoured. However notwithstanding these usual applied caveats, recent posts have been discussing the requirements of the atmosphere to play ball first and foremost to give us a chance of tapping into at least *some* summer heat - and this principle primary obstacle is about to be achieved As muted above, before the GWO heads into its indeterminate phase 0, it is what is happening first of all now that is of possible significance for us in the longer term. A large clue wrt this, is gleaned from AAM/GWO forecasts and is the increase about to occur in positive frictional torques (in Phase 4) leading to a positive Asian Mountain torque heading into Phase 5 http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/nschiral/research/gwo/gfsgwo_1.png This process serves to add westerly momentum tendency to the Atmosphere (Nino like) and it supports the development and persistence of an upper trough in the Atlantic and a downstream height anomaly (in contrast to the Nina like retrogressing High pressure and downstream UK/European trough). This, in accordance with more summer Nino-esque conditions, means in basic lay-person terms, a change of emphasis of airstream approach to the UK with the Atlantic not being flooded with cool air (as we have repeatedly seen), less polar maritime influence, and greater sub tropical influence The absence of any subsequent loss of momentum tendency ( i.e without a follow-on negative torque/mountain torque) will indicate a break away from a suppressed jet stream (low tendency phases 1 into 2) and will signify a willingness for the upper low to our west to stall away from the UK, and encourage stronger and more resistant downstream ridging development. Such 'reverse' downstream amplification would pull the very warm uppers, gathering to the south, further and further north with time. Following Phase 0, which supports the medium term modelling, means (in the hopeful absence of low AAM phase 1/2 orbit) any emergence back into Phase 3, and then after that, another repeat 3/5 orbit will ratchet up westerly tendency further and be the signal for less and less changeable weather backing away NW/wards from the UK. I think that extended ensemble data, which prematurely reacted to a warm-up about a week back, is now on a closer tack with longer term warming trends further south - to thereafter extend, eventually, further north and west. This process, as discussed now and previously, is a longer term work in progress trend. But there is increasing reason and evidence to keep expecting a more wholesale change in better conditions in the UK to occur as we head further into and through July. It could well be this is the same theme that the METO are alluding to in their extended updates

Are we really getting that desperate that we're looking into deep FI for something more akin to midsummer? I think it's slowly beginning to dawn on people that the end game is likely to be a spell of wet and unsettled weather. Still, I have a sneaky suspicion that we'll see a rather notable spell of warmth and thunder before July is out...

It isnt a recent thing, its been ongoing since i joined ten years ago, requests by admin, mods, senior forecasters, more seasoned and ordinary members, to support their pov with charts or data so others can understand why they hold the opinions theydo. It adds to understanding and helps others learn. I thought unsupported hunches or opinions were best suited to the ramps thread and not the model discussion thread. I note tonights ecm is still very close to producing something rather hot, as heat continues to build over spain and france....

Can we have some charts to support your assumption that the end game is unsettled? Or is this due to charts showing the weather you do not want?Find it a bit hypocritical about looking at fi charts in summer? Same as people do in winter. But the trend has been quite firm in a return to average or warmer conditions for some time now. Should this be ignored?

The current El Nino period is certainly providing Vancouver and British Columbia with a unusual weather pattern for such a maritime location. Last May was one of the driest on record and so far this month only 2 days of any rainfall recorded. The strong high pressure ridge is to develop again with heat peaking at 30c in the city in 10 days time, about 10c above seasonal normal. Interior parts of BC could reach 35c. The same weather pattern prevails over much of NW states of America as well. As a result of this phenomenon, similar increased heat and drought is being forecast long term for this summers peak in Iberia and possibly much of France. So an increasingly hot spell in SW Europe become more evident. Whether the British Isles can tap into this is another thing, but the SE of England again looks the favourite location. c

What's this fascination with everything having to be backed up by a page of technical justification for opinions just recently? You don't need to automatically back up every thought or opinion with pretty pictures and/or postgraduate level analysis to state a trend in modelling or even just a hunch. No-one is going to be misled by anything that is said as the post in question is usually preceded by 'in my opinion' or 'I think'. In my opinion, if people want visual aids then they can just look at the output themselves rather than continually being spoonfed and wasting bandwidth on here. When I get in from work I often look at the models FIRST then come on here to read the interpretations of them! That should be fine....it's relatively easy to distinguish between the more methodical posts and the general commentary on the overall medium range synoptic situation

Yes I think you could be right CS. Something is brewing for sure, its mostly instinct as you say but you can somehow just tell cant you..... GEFS giving mean 850s of around +10c for South Yorkshire for the entire first week of July for example. Its been a LONG time im sure since that has been shown for around here:

Good ensemble agreement for a significant heat block to develop to our south as we move through the next week to 10 days, the mean 850s reach double figures in week 2 across most of England and Wales (ECM/GFS and GEM suites). That of course means little at moment as that is a long way away though a heatwave developing over France, Spain and Italy looks likely. Now how do we get the heat over the UK, well this is where the model output over the next couple of days will be fun, crucially will the rather smooth longwave pattern portrayed by the models and hence the NW/SE split in fortunes overall prevail or will we start to see a cut off feature begin to appear between the Azores and Portugal? If the latter happen then I would expect the models to start pushing the heat further north as the jet becomes increasingly fragmented and slow moving and hence the Euro ridge is allows to push further north and hence advect the hot air towards the UK properly as opposed to glancing blows (summer blizzard's 2010 example is a perfect example of the latter). I would be shocked that we didn't see an operational run push the 20C isotherm across the south of the UK at some point over the coming couple of days, the pattern looks primed for it, we only need a trigger. Anyway before then the weather looks usable and indeed rather warm over the coming week before we reach the potential impasse in fortunes at the end of the month.

The ECM has the 25 to 30 isotherm over my location and a good portion of southern France - it never reached that in the August 2003 heatwave. I said some time ago that I was concerned about excessive heat as the PDO had a very warm winter profile, just as in 2003. We have managed to break heat records in the last three months, I suspect July will too.

The Ecm 12z shows a lot of fine and pleasantly warm weather to come during the next 7-10 days, especially further south and then it hots up in the south, could be 30 celsius + in the southeast with a hot and sultry, thundery looking T+240 chart. Like I have said before, I think we have a good chance of a widespread warm up through week 2...it's great to see the 564 dam line / + 15 T850 hPA encroaching into the UK and I hope this is what we can look forward to seeing a lot more of during July and August.

Like people do in winter you mean? I think we have a much better chance of getting some sustained warmth in July than we do sustained cold/snow in January.

Then again isn't that the scenario that was being modelled for this coming week about 4 or 5 days ago? However now we're nearer the timescale tomorrow's frontal wave looks significantly weaker in the S/SW rather than a widespread heavy rain event and it's to be followed by a largely settled and possibly very warm week.

That is misleading!!!! No ones said there is a heatwave on the horizon but theres a POSSIBILITY of one as the charts show considerable heat building over france and spain, and the synoptic charts DO allow for a hot evolution, its not a complete no no, but a realistic possibility. On tablet so i cant post charts (lol, the irony) but view the ecm and gfs by t240, fi? Yes but the noaa 8-14 day anomaly supports pressure rise over southern/central europe which strongly supports the expected heat build. Ontablet so cant!!

Yes but the cfs is showing it

Peeps: can we please stop talking about snow? It's June!

its worth noting the building heat over southern europe, although its currently, largely, locked up over there, we only need the jet to buckle (favourably, to our west) and we would get all that lovelly hot air coming out way! interesting times ahead, will it be a case of frustration as the heat never gets here, or are we getting close to a heatwave? some support for this to come our way?

Alright, let's get things back on topic and cut out the antagonistic posts (and that goes for everyone here).

So please produce some charts........

Evening folks, I find it quite amusing that some posters on here are going for heatwave conditions somewhere down the line, Please stop misleading people., there is no heatwave on the horizon.! If you look at the projected model output with in T+168 low pressure in the Atlantic is the driver of our weather, so that will pump up some warm air at times across the nation but also some rainbands will push across the uk which will be hard to predict. Lets say it will be unsettled in the North, Changeable in the South.....

Looking at the GEFS anomalies this evening is quite encouraging, Await the ECM version. With ridging over the western US and western Atlantic there is decrease in the jet and a continued build up of heights western Europe as the mid Atlantic trough virtually dissipates. This tends to HP western Europe (including the UK for once) with temps for the latter rising to above average. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

The Gfs 12z shows a good deal of warm and fine weather for the south and especially the southeast and occasionally very warm. I think it won't take much change to the current pattern to see continental heat reach the UK in the coming weeks.

Summer starts here, three months of it. Yippee!

My summary, not too different from that made by Gibby, is covered by my own entry in my anomaly chart routine daily comments on my pc this morning. Sun and ec-gfs shows troughs rather than ridging for the uk with any +ve heights s/se of the country, perhaps close enough to give se ¼ of uk decent summery weather but less so the further nw one lives? Fairly similar on noaa but a touch less emphasis here on the trough side with it 20-30west for the main 500mb trough the links for this http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php Open to question is how unsettled it might be on any one day and how much of the country would be affected. Equally as any surface ridging develops is how much of the country could be under its influence and how high the temperatures might get. Certainly not a summer is over pattern is how it looks to me.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON SUNDAY JUNE 21ST 2015. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A westerly airflow covers the UK today unsyable in the North and complicated by a warm frontal wave running East over Southern England tonight and at first tomorrow. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry and bright weather but somewhat more unsettled interludes too with some showers in places especially in the North. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow across the UK weakening and breaking up through this week. Thereafter the flow reasserts strength and influence across the South of the UK through Week 2. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows complex slack synoptics under a weak Westerly flow this week delivering contrasting day to day variations in weather ranging from dry and bright and for a time very warm in the South to cloudier days when the odd outbreaks of rain or showers occur. The bias for the rain remains largely to the North. Through Week 2 further changeable conditions are shown in a slightly stronger Westerly with rain almost anywhere at times but still biased towards the North http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run shows a largely South/North split in conditions throughout with the best of the warmth and sunshine across the South while the North remains more changeable with rain at times under an Atlantic feed. In Week 2 some very warm and humid conditions are shown across the South and East and this would likely trigger some sharp thundery downpours if these temperatures engage with any troughing from the West and NW by then. THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters still show the likelihood of High pressure out to the SW or west in two weeks with a lot of dry weather but with some members shown a stronger NNW flow with some showers and a cool breeze although this view is still very much in the minority. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO today shows a warming up period for a time midweek as High pressure to the South feeds warm and humid air up across the South and East. The North and West looks a little cooler with a little rain too at times and a trough moving East later in the week could promote a few thundery downpours as it engages the muggy air in the SE before things settle down again later at the same time as it becomes fresher.. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts continue to show a complex array of weak troughs crossing the UK from the NW or West at times, each bringing their own version of more cloud and occasional mostly light rain or showers as they pass with some dry and bright weather for all too in between as High pressure builds towards the South at the middle of the week. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120. GEM GEM this morning shows a classic Summer pattern across the UK with Low pressure to the North and NW especially later but with High pressure close to the South and East. As a result cloud and rain at times will affect the North and West at times while the South and East stay largely fine and bright and become very warm and humid at times with perhaps the odd thundery shower as weakening troughs feed down from the NW on occasion. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM still shows a High pressure ridge to the SW lying towards the South at times with slightly changeable Westerly winds featuring delivering occasional rain to the North while the South becomes largely dry and very warm for a time around the middle of this week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif. ECM ECM this morning also shows High pressure becoming more established to the South of the UK at times feeding periods of warm and settled conditions across the South if rather humid soon after midweek. The North stays more changeable with occasional rain and rather less warm weather. This process is repeated several times up to Day 10 with a more thundery theme looking likely after Day 10 as Low pressure to the SW engages very warm and humid air over the South at that time. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows Low pressure out to the NW with a SW flow across Britain with the most likely scenario from this being rain at times chiefly in the North and West with a fair amount of dry and warm weather between more occasional rain across the South and East. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends today are weak and inconclusive other than the fact that none of the output promotes anything dramatic over the period. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.9 pts followed by UKMO at 95.7 pts and GFS at 95.7 too. At 5 days ECM leads GFS at 86.3 pts with GFS at 83.4 pts and UKMO at 82.4 pts. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 50.4 over 44.1. Then at Day 10 ECM remains ahead of GFS at 30.5 pts to 20.2 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig MY THOUGHTS This morning's output maintains the relatively quiet theme weatherwise across the UK for the next few weeks. The basic pattern remains for the bank of High pressure to the SW to persist but with a slight shift of orientation to the ridge further South than of late sufficient enough to help engage more very warm air at times up over Southern Britain from the SW through the period. It is hard to say whether this would mean sunny and sultry conditions or cloudy and humid but the chance of some very high temperatures in the South at times over the next few weeks is possible albeit with the proviso that the odd thunderstorm could break out as weak troughs from the West and NW engage the hot and humid air at times. The North and West of the UK look more traditionally characterized by slightly breezier conditions with rain at times and temperatures close to average but even here some warmth could spread up from the South at times. So all in all a very typical pattern for the time of year with a lot of benign but very acceptable weather for most with the South and East fairing best while the North and West have the biggest share of any rain that's going and even here some dry periods can be expected. Next update from 08:00 Monday June 22nd 2015

Pub run out now, this coming week looking very solid indeed, not entirely fine and settled but plenty of dry and increasingly warm weather with the risk of rain from a few weak fronts and the risk of a few showers (potentially thundery) breaking out on any day apart from Tuesday. Mid, possibly high twenties in the south east on Friday, but most days look warm or very warm. Many other places should see above normal temperatures from mid week. Beyond this the GFS keeps high pressure close and the following week builds the heat further in the south with 30C predicted by day 10 The pattern looks loaded for a surge of heat from the south especially as Spain and a good part of France will be entering heatwave conditions from this week, so something worth watching over the coming runs for a plume event or potentially the risk of something more significant occurring if the pattern amplifies significantly to allow a more robust Euro/Scandi high to develop and draw up that searing Saharan heat over Europe including the UK. Either way conditions look like turning warmer compared to what we have seen so far this month. Edit - Both the GFS and GEM control runs bring the 20C isotherm up briefly over the UK towards the end of week 2, this signal keeps getting repeated and the ECM looks potentially like going hot beyond day 10 with low heights being cut off south west of the UK.

Here we are again at day 10 with ensemble height anomalies forecast to our East/South-East setting up a possible plume scenario. ecm.. gfs.. Lets hope those anomalies verify this time instead of ending up over Greenland/Iceland!

Didnt say that. Ill refer you to the charts that have been posted today showing a large build up of heat over france and spain. With that in place its not beyond reason that it might just get advected here IF the synoptic pattern builds to allow it..... And there are signes, tentetive, that that might happen. So its not just a blind guess that sometime this summer it might get hot, as you mockingly suggest, the (cliche time) building blocks for a hot evolution for the uk are very close to being in place, very close indeed....

Yes you are right...possibly of an heat wave at some point in Summer,

The GEFS 12z mean shows very warm continental air making significant inroads into the UK from next weekend onwards, we would see temperatures well into the 20's celsius quite widely across the UK and certainly very warm in the south and a lot of fine and sunny weather too with the Azores high ridging up through most of the uk...i'm really impressed by these charts.

UKMO extends the high pressure into the weekend now Whilst some showers could still makes it towards the UK they should be fairly isolated

The 6z might bring the Atlantic in briefly to give a very unsettled few days but by the 1st July we already have high pressure building back across the south. With a mean like this there is plenty to be upbeat about as we enter July. It shows us cutting off the NW flow and entering a much more favourable position for high pressure to build across the UK delivering some very warm conditions. The mid 20s are getting easier to achieve now that we are approaching July.

lol warmest july eva

The overnight runs look to be reducing the odds on a notable plume raeaching our shores. Judging by the ops and the gefs spreads, the direction of travel of Atlantic systems remains too w-e rather than sw/ne which could allow enough time for any plume to get here should one system decide to dig far enough s mid Atlantic. I guess, what I'm saying is that despite the gefs looking more amplified through week 2, the reality wil probably be flatter, especially to our west and without that buckle which rob mentions above, we can't advert the heat far enough north. Looks like a 'conventional' nw/se split which is where the ECM extended have been for a few runs now.

Very difficult to say where and when the best of any bright and warmer interludes will occur over the next 2 weeks. The jet continues to run across our latitudes which means we rely on brief ridging between the Atlantic fronts moving in from time to time. A suppressed Azores high means a generally flat Westerly flow with breezy and rather cool Summer conditions with again areas furthest south seeing the best of any warmth. Not great for heat lovers but still some decent conditions available at times for outdoor activities. It just means watching the daily forecasts if planning anything in this rather changeable pattern.

Yes the 6z really ramps up the Atlantic into the turn of the Month.

This was my musings for this coming week from the 6z 4 days ago. No 'widespread heavy rain event' was on the cards, Not much change only the main front being a few miles further South, Which is to be expected at the time-scale. With Tuesday being the driest nationwide day, Yes the extreme S/E may touch 26c by the end of the week..

The Reading EPS show scope for more warmth - deterministic is at the bottom of the range for last day of June..... caveat, a lot of time for change that far out. Freebie today is for Middlesbrough ....

The GFS this morning shows an Atlantic Westerly flow turning N/W at times as we move into the new month of July. With fronts crossing the country, Bringing showers or longer spells of rain at times, Inter-spread by some settled days especially for the South. As High Pressure tries to ebb in at times, But then gets pushed away by the next front.. So a mixed bag on the cards, With temps around average at best but warmer at times in the far South, A pattern that looks more akin to Spring.

I beg to differ

Awesome stuff! Hey does this mean I'll get three days of drizzle and be able to watch a single lightning strike occur on a webcam overlooking the sea in Hull? Wow a plume to remember I reckon. Move this to moans and ramps if you like. My posts have been going in the wrong threads all day long :-)

Everyone to their own but I fail to see why anyone would want this cool weather to end and be replaced with 'thunderstorms'.Some lovely sunny summer days for me thanks!!

Models singing in similar tune this evening, going for stalling trough of low heights to some degree over the atlantic allowing ridging of sorts to encroach from the south. UK positioned in a bit of a no-mans land, classic col set up. Indeed the models are showing a synoptical evolution that could introduce a plume of sorts. So things potentially heading in the right way if you are wanting some warmer weather, but not necessarily settled, thundery downpours could be the order of the day. My original thoughts for the summer were such synoptics to hold sway quite a bit, but the ridging weak enough to enable trough features to crash in from the west temporarily bringing humid tropical maritime air then something fresher from the NW before the next ridge moves in bringing fine very weather and rinse and repeat. Its not too late for such a trend to set in and dominate the rest of the summer, quite often it isn't until late June we set the summer pattern.

Hmm the 06z ensembles again suggesting something very warm or even hot developing in the extended range with a strong Euro ridge and a stalling Atlantic trough developing at the end of June/ start of July. Looks isolated with the GEM ens going for a north/south split albeit still fairly warm. I would assume the ECM ens and the internal metoffice models are calling a westerly pattern dominating. That said this evolution is one to watch with the strength of the jet usually quite weak at this time of year and as such a stalling pattern which could favour the UK could potentially happen. Today's metoffice update seems more favourable, well at least for the south east where very warm and humid conditions could develop at times which is reflected in the output. For London at least the ensemble mean is hovering around the 20-22C mark throughout the mid the latter range which would suggest that we should finally lose the cool north westerly winds with a more typical westerly or warm south to south westerly flow could develop from next week onwards. Some extreme outliers in there in the extended range, heh the control run was the extreme outlier 06z ensembles - Ensemble members 8, 9 and 17 bring the 20C isotherm to the UK, with 8 bringing something akin to July 2006 in evolution, now back to reality.

I think that we will continue the north westerly or northerly regeme and with SST's below normal I am plumbing for 14.8, well below average CET. For the northern part of scotland ( where I happen to live) the below average anomaly will be even more pronounced, probably at least 3 degrees Celsius below normal. Sorry!

15.8

14.8C

another cooler than average 15.5, the cold atlantic will still have a say

15.7 please.