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A typical UK Summer pattern showing in the 12z runs so far -the Azores High occasionally ridging in and low pressure running across to the north. Weak frontal systems coming se from the shallow Icelandic lows bringing some occasional rain/showers so as usual the best weather reserved for areas further south and east where pressure is highest. No heat wave on the cards yet but many areas should have plenty of useable weather around for outdoor activities in the next week or so.

The GFS 12z has the briefest of northerly outbreaks next Monday before high pressure builds back in. Temps are in the low 20s on Sunday, falling back into the teens on Monday before recovering into the low 20s again by Tuesday. And, as SS has alluded to, the UKMO isnt too shabby either, keeping most parts dry and quite pleasant over the weekend. Good stuff from the 12z models so far.

Big changes from the ECM too, cutting short the northerly (it doesnt really feature on this run at all). In its place are much more interesting summer charts. We could be about to look south for our weather for the first time in ages. Quite a way from being fully settled but theres quite a bit of warmth heading our way at t+168. But its early days and one run doesnt make a pattern change so its a trend that i will be looking for tomorrow too.

Quite. GEM really wasnt keen on the Greenland Heights this morning. A much more normal 12z and very pleasant. Not surprised the swing may be turning back in favour of more normal conditions. My summary from 2/3 days ago of plenty of useable pleasant weather for the rest of June still stands and if anything is even stronger this evening. *Awaits to be told we should ignore the 12z.* Lol.

big improvements on the models this evening!!high pressure building in more strongly from the weekend compared to earlier runs!!hopefully the improvements continue!!

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON TUESDAY JUNE 16TH 2015. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure across the South of the UK today will be superceded by a weakening front moving slowly South across the UK later today, tonight and tomorrow. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry and bright weather with just isolated showers in relatively warm conditions in the South. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast remains rather pessimistic in mood over the coming two weeks as the flow undulates across the UK in the coming days before strengthening under a UK trough next week and continuing in similar unseasonal mood in strength and positioning through Week 2 with very changeable weather likely for the UK as a result. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows High pressure never far away from the South or SW of England over the coming days maintaining a ridge towards the South with fine bright and reasonably warm conditions at times. Further North more cloud and a little rain at times seem likely from weak Atlantic troughs and with time the ridge over the South becomes tenuous enough to allow these troughs to slip further South and SE across the UK. Then next week the ridge loses influence altogether with a period of cyclonic weather with rain or showers for all later next week before a more NW/SE setup seems likely with the wetter conditions transferring towards the North and West in mild SW winds. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run is a lot better if it's a continuation of fine and dry weather your after. Although a weakening of the High pressure ridge this coming weekend and early next week is indicated with a period of slack winds promoting a few showers High pressure builds back more favourably positioned later to draw some very warm air across the UK from the South for a while with a thundery breakdown late in the period and more unsettled weather to finish the period in the North and NW. THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters remain focused on High pressure out to the SW with a rridge towards the UK promoting a lot of fine weather still in two weeks time. There are of course some exceptions to this general rule of thumb with a more Atlantic based pattern with rain at times but these members remain in the minority at the moment. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO today shows High pressure maintained out to the SW with a ridge towards the UK in a light NW flow for many. A few showers may develop by the weekend and even more so early next week as a slightly more enhanced trough slips SE across the UK early next week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show High pressure continuing to be held out to the SW of Britain with weak frontal troughs invading the airspace of the UK weakened by the associated ridge from the High across the South of the UK. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120. GEM GEM remains High pressure orientated comfortably in control of the weather across the UK with just a period of slacker pressure early next week that could promote the odd shower or two for a time and the odd trough affecting the far North of the UK at times too. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM too undulates a High pressure ridge towards and away from the South of the UK over the coming days and week with a NW flow carrying weak troughs down over the North and East at times perhaps with the odd shower. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif. ECM ECM is quite progressive in it's demise of the High pressure ridge early next week as shallow Low pressure moves into the UK next week promoting showers and outbreaks of rain and somewhat cooler conditions. By the end of the run though High pressure building South of the UK looks like it could bring back warm and settled weather to at least the South and East of the UK towards the end of next week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows that our long lasting High pressure ridge is slowly being replaced by something of a bias towards a UK trough in slack winds looking likely in 10 days time. The methodology used to create the chart hides the patterns which make up it's view and vary quite a bit ine to another between both better and worse than what's shown. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends between the models remain mostly focused on High pressure remaining influential across the UK in the shape of a ridge towards Southern Britain from the Azores anticyclone though some ingress of Low pressure from the NW does feature from some output next week. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.0 pts followed by UKMO at 95.8 pts and GFS at 95.7. At 5 days ECM leads GFS at 86.7 pts with GFS at 83.3 pts and UKMO at 83.2 pts. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 49.7 over 44.0. Then at Day 10 ECM remains slightly ahead of GFS at 31.3 pts to 21.3 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig MY THOUGHTS Once again this morning the models remain largely focused on the behaviour of High pressure positioned out to the SW of the UK and how much influence it holds across the UK. In the short term it does allow some weak fronts to cross South across the UK but rainfall amounts will be very restrictive and mostly towards the North. Cloud amounts will be large at times and this may hold temperatures down to comfortable levels in the North but some warm weather could be experienced in the South. Then next week there are indications with some cross model support that a period of more showery weather may develop as a more enhanced trough moves down from the North in the light flow. ECM is the most progressive of these outcomes with several days of relatively cool and unstable conditions. However, it does indicate too that High pressure may well build back after this at least across the South and East where hints that it might become very warm are shown. So in a nutshell today prospects remain reasonable and while a heatwave looks very unlikely in the near future as long as that High pressure remains out to the SW conditions look favourable enough for most people to enjoy some fine early Summer weather and although this may be punctuated with odd days of cloud and a little rain or showers no large rainfall amounts look likely across most areas of the UK for the next few weeks at least. Next update from 08:00 Wednesday June 17th 2015

Latest EC32 update Starting at day ten there is a weak trough Greenland running SE west of the UK, ridging mid Atlantic and weakish HP north of Scandinavia. Thus the surface analysis would incline towards LP Iceland, westerly flow and average temps. During the next week up to the 2th July the Azores ridge reasserts itself and the trough disappears although the main centre of the HP does yo yo a bit back and forth down SW way there is a mainly flat NW/W flow over the UK with temps still around average. This broadly speaking remains the situation for the next week until the 9th with temps a touch below average And, surprise surprise, this scenario continues until the end of the run on the 17th July with temps around average. Summary One feels a bit underwhelmed. After a possibility of unsettled weather 25-27th ( I know) the rest of the period is dominated (not really the correct word) by the Azores HP to the south west bringing a NW/W flow over the UK which will remain very dry but temps only around average or a tad below. Being optimistic there is scope for some quite nice weather within this scenario.

Its the guardian so unfortunately to get to the facts you have two read 2/3 rds of the way down to get. """"It is unclear whether the loss of ice is directly related to man-made climate change or a cyclical change in ocean currents""" or if you prefer the alarmist nearer the top """"said the loss of the shelves would speed the complete collapse of the west Antarctic ice sheet, which would eventually cause up to 3.5m of sea level rise"""" http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/mar/26/collapse-antarcticas-glaciers-ice-melt-sooner-than-thought-scientists-warn

There would be an strange irony if the Greenland high is the trigger to rid us of this omnipresent north westerly flow and associated cool temperatures as the jet blows sw/ne through the UK. A long way off though.

Once again UKMO keeps the high over more of the UK compared to GFS on Sunday The 12z GFS is better than the 06z though 12z above right High pressure slowly rebuilding next week much improved from some of the previous runs

It would be interesting to see whether there was a way of comparing the prevailing Jet pattern for each year (particularly summer) to see if there is a correlation. For example, perhaps it is only my selective mind at play here, but more recent summers felt like they have produced a Jet Stream pattern where: a) instead of a SW-NE (positive) axis over the UK, we have seen a flow more commonly as NW-SE (negative). This made it more likely for us to be on the cooler (North) side of the Jet Stream. b) The Jet also seemed to 'buckle' further East in the Atlantic, making it more likely that we are closer to the trough influence on the cooler side of the Jet as it moved in from the NW/W. Any plumes that have occurred seem to be more short lived and shunted away quickly because height rises to our SE/E do not build enough before the strength of the Jet moves it on. Again, it may just be my selective mind at work. I have not looked at any data to back this up.

Those figures speak volumes Kev....shows it's not all in our minds when we recall the thundery 90s.

We're at the time now where the mornings are as light as they can get. Next week the mornings will start to dawn later, soon followed by the evenings drawing in.

A number of models really aren't too keen on the Greenland heights staying. The GEM seems to lose them quite quick this morning for example. No model seems to suggest particularly strong heights either - rather weak to moderate blocking at best. Confidence good on a trough dropping south but still nothing disastrous IMO. The GFS's deep lows are probably Its usual over reaction in la la land.

But how can you base a forecast on this for the UK?June 1972 is one of the coldest June's on record, rainfall was about average. June 1997 had a warmer first half than second half, balancing out to average with an exceptionally wet second half resulting in the wettest June of the 20th century. I can't see how you can base a CET nor rainfall forecast on this.

I can only speak for this area as you are going to get local variations as always when it comes to the weather but looking at the figures for Manchester Ringway, Woodford, my observations and feelings, the number of days with thunder have definitely declined in the last few years especially since and including 2010. The figures I have 1981: 12 1982: 15 1983: 21 1984: 19 1985: 7 1986: 7 1987:13 1988: 14 1989: 6 1990: 21 1991: 15 1992: 20 1993: 14 1994: 21 1995: 17 1996: 12 1997: 13 1998: 17 1999: 23 2000: 17 2001: 12 2002: 10 2003: 4 2004: 17 2005: 5 2006: 12 2007: 9 2008: 10 2009: 8 2010: 2 2011: 3 2012: 8 2013 was a better year, even had thunder snow that year, last year was very poor and this year, no thunder at all the far. The 1990s were brilliant for thunder which confirms my recollections of that decade. 1992 and 1994 have stuck in my mind for thunder. 1999 was another good year for thunder. The figures suggest to me that thundery plumes coming up from the south affecting this area has declined since the start of the 21st century and markedly since 2010. Also showery airstreams with a westerly component especially the NWly are infrequently producing the classic shower passing through with a single crack of thunder. Unless the rest of the years of the 2010s change drastically and this year is showing no change thus far, the 2010s are looking a very thunderless decade here overall.

The second tropical storm of the 2015 Atlantic season has formed in the Gulf of Mexico, just offshore from Texas. Winds are at 45kts Bill is a fairly broad system and is not expected to strengthen significantly before landfall, which should occur in around 12hrs time. The primary threat from Bill will be heavy rainfall.

Evening all, a messy weather pattern coming up for sure from both Ecm and Gfs . Changeable weather for all on these charts , although as yet there really is no meat on the bones...

Yes quite right, but all the same I'd rather have an average one than a 2007 style washout. A hot August is massively overdue.

The GEFS mean in a weeks time not looking particularly unsettled and hinting at a pressure rise from the south. It goes on to suggest a NW/SE split for the remainder of next week with quite warm conditions for the SE.

good thread, , to the people saying it just selective memory at play, well I think we can dismiss that proper now, although never believed it was selective memory , and thanks to weather history for researching some statistics confirms this, now we need to know why, the laughable thing is a decade or two ago the prediction for this type of weather event. ie , flash floods, thunderstorms , intense but short lived convective rainfall would be on the increase , due to 'global warming' , just another climate prediction fail like the complete disappearance of arctic ice in the summer months

The reanalysis of the last nine springs/summers - my perception is that patterns changed late summer 2006 - set against climate mean going back to 1980. I'm not sure I'm using the right parameter but it is for wind speed/direction at Jet stream height. The first image illustrates the meridional flows that have steered the storms round the UK and away to the near continent. Here's the link for anybody to correct me and play around with different years. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl

You changing sex!

A mixed run from GFS for next week some warmer days and some cooler days it doesn't look like a complete washout, but there will be plenty of showers at times and the risk of some longer spells of rain but as ever this time of year in any brighter spells it will be feeling pleasant enough A blink and you'll miss it hot day in FI before it gets pushed east The met office do state today that "there is considerable uncertainty regarding weather conditions from Tuesday onwards but it looks likely that most places should see some dry and fine spells". So make what you will of GFS at the moment

Have to say there have been very few years that I have looked across the Firth to the NW at Ben Wyvis with so much snow left in mid June and remarkably the last snow on some hills only about 10 miles to the west of me at about 1500 feet only disappeared round the 1st of June something I have never seen before.The cooler Atlantic certainly helped to give a lot of late winter snow on SW and W winds, again unusual.

CMD Arete at Nevis Range yesterday.

Well everyone has their preference for 'average' charts to put the matter as simply if not totally correctly for anyone a bit confused by the plthora of charts, synoptic a, ensembles and mean charts. As a simple soul I will stick with my usual anomaly outputs as they have served me quite well over the past 5 years or so. Gawd knows how many Mb I have stored on my pc from checking 2x daily 365 days a year! Anyway looking at the 3 outputs I use the NOAA version seems the most likely to me. It has more consistency in itts recent output at 6-10 days than either of the other two. It also looks more meterologically realistic to me. That is a shift in +ve heights at 500mb from the UK/near continent area to a more northerly position, most likely NW of the UK. So from about 5 ays out we will be having air from a cooler zone than currently or expected in the short term. Below are the usual charts I use, ECMWF-GFS first and NOAA below that http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php The NOAA 8-14 also suggests that a similar upper air pattern is likely further out, W'ly at 500mb from the vicinity of the Gt Lakes or further west from not far from the Vancouver area?

Most probs and get "bust" from this haha

Just a reminder.. Can we please use this thread for Model Based chat, There are other threads for BBC discussions, Thanks.

they should get the forecast correct when it comes to giving people hope of a decent end to June.. when you see images of dried up riverbeds and "warming up" in a forecast.. and then reality strikes? why use the images and words of warming up??Just give an impression not something that resembles a decent couple of weeks going into July.. ITS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN...

Just walking by the 9 Ladies Stone Circle at Stanton moor, Very relaxing up here.. Compared to what it will be like on the 21st.

We will get super cells from that Surrey. Despite the lack of heat this summer, my melons have sprouted. Just goes to show how sunny it has been in the capital. Really could do with some heavy rain now, instead of the two days of drizzle that I got so far this month. Sunny for the rest of the week and warmer too. 22c at the moment.

12.8c to the 15th 0.9c below the 61 to 90 average 1.0c below the 81 to 10 average

Hadley back working again to the 14th 12.8c to the 14th 0.9c below the 61 to 90 average 1.0c below the 81 to 10 average

Cheers John, I honestly couldn't really decipher it properly BFTP

or the other thing is it just toys with us as it did during winter,,,after flirting resetting itself BFTP

No change this morning, The GFS continuing the theme of High Pressure pushing up over Greenland around the 21st. With Low Pressure sat over or very close to the UK giving a cool Northerly flow. Into week 2 shows systems sweeping down from the N/W giving cool and unsettled conditions at times towards Months end. ECMWF also maintains this pattern.

in addition to mice, scorpions and pizzas we had storms oh yes indeed storms

How very depressing. Mind you, reading some of the comments in the mod thread the past couple of weeks the winter "experts" haven't gone away this year.

All this after the BBC forecasters saying that for most places, if you didn't get any meaningful rain from last weekends low, you probably weren't getting any for the rest of June?

The GFS ens can be split into 3 clusters to be honest, the first is something akin to the GFS operational with varying degrees of coolness and rainfall, the second main cluster is a UK based high by day 7 which would be the route the UKMO takes, the third which is a minor cluster is a cut off low over southern England/France with the Azores/Russian ridges linking up. Example ensemble members To be honest the models at around day 5 look a mess with attempts to cut off multiple low pressure centres as well as warm air advection into the upper latitudes over our side of the pole.

A much better day then expected with only marginal Supercells expected, what happened was much better with a Supercell that rose 2,000ft per minute from Initiation upto 40,000ft in 20 minutes, topping out at 53,000ft. Got onto the storm from initiation near Muleshoe and had a good 3 hours with it before the system lined out around 7pm. Some pictures and the other boys will put up the Lightning ones again as they are much better at photography than me. Heading North during Monday

Amazing video of yesterdays supercells - it was so close to dropping a tornado at one point! Brilliant work from Ian Carruthers, thanks for sharing.

I'll just continue as normal. If anything I'll celebrate the START of summer. I go by the astronomical seasons so winter is far far far away.

If the 06z GFS verifies, seems little chance of a late heatwave to pull up the month. Could we see sub 13 this year? The guy who runs the CET competition on TWO said the Hadley was running almost half a degree too warm when last reported.

Nothing from Hadley again so far today

To me that makes a bit of a nonsense of analogues because there is a 2.3C difference between those Junes!

I use the Europe version not the world. It is not easy to decide just what the % expectations are, to me the May issue suggested a touch above normal T and about normal for rain but that is my idea, you or others may see it differently!

What a day again, Colorado has been the place to be this year. Started in Limon after yesterdays 8 Tornadoes and blasted west to a couple of Tornado Warned Supercells SE of Denver, after noting these were struggling we blasted east to a new area of Storms and got onto a storm east of us near Anton, blasted through Golfball Hail and into the bears cage and boom large Cone Tornado just to our South. Let this move towards us and when it was 200 yards away let it pass just behind us, at the time getting showered with hail and rain wrapping around violently. Then blasted east again through more Golfball Hail and cut south on a road near Kirk (Co) this was going to be a close shave as when we came out of the precip we had a large eastwards moving Cone Tornado over the road in front of us, we let this dance in a field 100 yards to our west and watched it lift up. About this time we got hit with extreme dry Rfd Winds which moved us across the road and upon looking up new another large Tornado was about to touch down. So re positioned 1/4 mile futher south and watched possible the fastest rotation I have seen put down a nice white cone Tornado where we had been sitting. A GrLevel3 Grab of where we were in proximity to the Supercell Some very aggresive chasing today but always in control of the situation and sometimes HP Supercells have to be tackled differently or you just wont see the goodies inside the beast. Paul S **Some Insane Videos to follow tomorrow when all encoded!