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Showing content with the highest reputation on 16/06/15 in all areas

  1. 3 points
    Its the guardian so unfortunately to get to the facts you have two read 2/3 rds of the way down to get. """"It is unclear whether the loss of ice is directly related to man-made climate change or a cyclical change in ocean currents""" or if you prefer the alarmist nearer the top """"said the loss of the shelves would speed the complete collapse of the west Antarctic ice sheet, which would eventually cause up to 3.5m of sea level rise"""" http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/mar/26/collapse-antarcticas-glaciers-ice-melt-sooner-than-thought-scientists-warn
  2. 3 points
    It would be interesting to see whether there was a way of comparing the prevailing Jet pattern for each year (particularly summer) to see if there is a correlation. For example, perhaps it is only my selective mind at play here, but more recent summers felt like they have produced a Jet Stream pattern where: a) instead of a SW-NE (positive) axis over the UK, we have seen a flow more commonly as NW-SE (negative). This made it more likely for us to be on the cooler (North) side of the Jet Stream. b) The Jet also seemed to 'buckle' further East in the Atlantic, making it more likely that we are closer to the trough influence on the cooler side of the Jet as it moved in from the NW/W. Any plumes that have occurred seem to be more short lived and shunted away quickly because height rises to our SE/E do not build enough before the strength of the Jet moves it on. Again, it may just be my selective mind at work. I have not looked at any data to back this up.
  3. 3 points
    Those figures speak volumes Kev....shows it's not all in our minds when we recall the thundery 90s.
  4. 2 points
    I can only speak for this area as you are going to get local variations as always when it comes to the weather but looking at the figures for Manchester Ringway, Woodford, my observations and feelings, the number of days with thunder have definitely declined in the last few years especially since and including 2010. The figures I have 1981: 12 1982: 15 1983: 21 1984: 19 1985: 7 1986: 7 1987:13 1988: 14 1989: 6 1990: 21 1991: 15 1992: 20 1993: 14 1994: 21 1995: 17 1996: 12 1997: 13 1998: 17 1999: 23 2000: 17 2001: 12 2002: 10 2003: 4 2004: 17 2005: 5 2006: 12 2007: 9 2008: 10 2009: 8 2010: 2 2011: 3 2012: 8 2013 was a better year, even had thunder snow that year, last year was very poor and this year, no thunder at all the far. The 1990s were brilliant for thunder which confirms my recollections of that decade. 1992 and 1994 have stuck in my mind for thunder. 1999 was another good year for thunder. The figures suggest to me that thundery plumes coming up from the south affecting this area has declined since the start of the 21st century and markedly since 2010. Also showery airstreams with a westerly component especially the NWly are infrequently producing the classic shower passing through with a single crack of thunder. Unless the rest of the years of the 2010s change drastically and this year is showing no change thus far, the 2010s are looking a very thunderless decade here overall.
  5. 2 points
    Who cares? Dont come back. You were made welcome in the UK and now that 'refuge' is cheap. Goodbye and good riddance.
  6. 2 points
    I doubt very much they didn't have an idea. A hatred of the country you live in just doesn't start overnight and there will have been signs and comments and I suspect heated discussions on the subject. As far as free to return no why should we want sleeper cells in the country which what most will become. At the moment though the effort is about fighting on foreign soil as to how long that remains is another matter. Perhaps the ones expressing concerns can see disruption starting here and prefer a peaceful way of life which they won't be allowed to have. The solution does have to come from the Muslim community though and the media needs to promote those that do good work against such evil people more widely. We've heard to many cries of war of Islam over the last few years.
  7. 2 points
    good thread, , to the people saying it just selective memory at play, well I think we can dismiss that proper now, although never believed it was selective memory , and thanks to weather history for researching some statistics confirms this, now we need to know why, the laughable thing is a decade or two ago the prediction for this type of weather event. ie , flash floods, thunderstorms , intense but short lived convective rainfall would be on the increase , due to 'global warming' , just another climate prediction fail like the complete disappearance of arctic ice in the summer months
  8. 2 points
    The reanalysis of the last nine springs/summers - my perception is that patterns changed late summer 2006 - set against climate mean going back to 1980. I'm not sure I'm using the right parameter but it is for wind speed/direction at Jet stream height. The first image illustrates the meridional flows that have steered the storms round the UK and away to the near continent. Here's the link for anybody to correct me and play around with different years. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl
  9. 2 points
    I've sensed, listening to interviews & hearing calls on phone-ins & such, that these last 2 cases are starting to make a change in the thinking of British Moslems. The general reaction seems different to the almost "non-committal" responses, that we heard in the past i.e. say that it's wrong, but refuse to condemn & try to blame some else. There seems to be a growing feeling amongst them, that these people are doing huge damage both to their religion & by extension to them personally. It can only help, if we finally get the British Moslems firmly on board & being more proactive in their communities, to stop these things at source. Perhaps my sense is wrong & my hope misplaced, but I hope not.
  10. 2 points
    All who leave to join ISIS should be charged with treason, caught and prosecuted. I'd also seriously consider having social services investigate their wider families to prevent other children especially being taught such inferior values.
  11. 1 point
    I find it rather amusing that people keep banging on about it's happened before as if the authors of the latest paper, which engendered this discussion (for want of a better word) were inferring otherwise instead of the opposite. Classic Bulverism. The latest development in the Larsen C Ice Shelf is significant, apart from the obvious, because now we are in position to make detailed scientific studies of the complex mechanisms behind such events and thus advance our our understanding of the ice shelves and glaciers. Because sceptics are so consumed with denying AGW they pollute every thread with their nonsensical one line soundbites and completely ignore the scientific paper in question. Primary school debating. No wait, that's completely unfair to the kids. To sum up. Any ignoramus can sigh, attempt to look intelligent and then utter the immortal words, "but it's happened before", The trick is to know why and how it happens and to attempt to get a handle on that you need to read the paper.
  12. 1 point
    You don't believe large calving events happened before? I thought you reckoned to study such things. In a very blinkered way obviously.
  13. 1 point
    I am not sure when that happen John but nevertheless those figures even if not entirely accurate only confirm my feelings. There is no doubt in my mind number of days with thunder has declined here.
  14. 1 point
    What I find stark is that thunder in this area has become so rare now that it is actually rarer than falling snow was during say the period February 1997 to November 2000 or April 1987 to November 1990. There were 31 days with lying snow here in 2010, there hasn't even been that number of days with thunder this decade.
  15. 1 point
    The classic thunder recipe here used to be: Hot airmass lodged over us for at least 3 days, producing plenty of sun and temperatures climbing to at least the high 20s, often hitting 30. Then a disturbance of some kind (trough, active cold front) comes down from the NW and hits it head on, producing Cb that you could see building and going bang. It thunders for at least 2 hours, then fresher air comes in. Very often it doesn't last as the heat builds again in a day or two. Classics like 10 July 1995 and 19 June 2005 (the last time it happened) came from this setup. Many 90s hot spells ended this way. Nowadays the heat doesn't build as it used to or last as long, and anything coming from the North west invariably just gives a load of cloud (often a day in advance of the actual front) and steady rain, if it goes bang at all it does so miles to the E or SE of here. Basically we get what western Scotland used to get from those setups in the 90s. Any thunder we get here now invariably comes up from the south or drifts over from Wales, very occasionally a small cell might form here in a cooler, unstable air mass (3rd Aug 2013). We never, ever get those old thunder setups.
  16. 1 point
    So now two bars of chocolate a day, whether dark or milk, can lower your chances of having a heart attack or stroke :cc_confused: what about all the calories and saturated fat? :cc_confused: I wonder what scientist did the research, Professor Cadbury by any chance? *Scratches goaty beard on pet goat, in deep thought*
  17. 1 point
    Cheers John, I honestly couldn't really decipher it properly BFTP
  18. 1 point
    I'll tell you something. Scotland will be an independent country and by that I mean a real independent country. And I say that as an Englishman. Let me explain. I used to be a British unionist (well still am really but I'm also a realist) and last year I was against the idea of Scottish separation. I have since come to realise that there is no such countries as the UK, England, Scotland, Wales, Ireland, France, Germany, Poland, Spain, Portugal or Austria anyway. NO the country we live in is called the European Union and European citizenship is the only citizenship we have for now. Anything else is just pretend now. Oh and forget this referendum we're supposed to have next year anybody who desires to be a Scottish or British citizen will lose as the yes side will con the majority to stay. I know that you Scots are apparently generally less eurosceptic than us English but at the same time I don't think this will last. Why you might ask. Well you are undoubtedly one of the most patriotic nations on earth so are less likely to in the end roll over. You know who you are and what your about. You have REAL substance to your national identity. And I believe eventually you'll realise Scotland can't be independent until you leave the EU. Forget the UK there is no such state anymore, not really. Even if you had voted yes last year you wouldn't have become independent anyway besides from pretend tokenism. This is what I don't get about the SNP. They're fakes, they're stringing you along. If you really want independence support a party that truly wants it or create one to combat their sell out mentality. The people of England will not vote no next year, Scotland almost certainly won't and Wales probably won't either (Northern Ireland might though but been part of the UK this will be irrelevant). The appetite for it is too small, weak and it is only supported mostly by bigots and racists this side of the border. We have UKIP but although they have a reasonable leadership they unfortunately attract support from too many undesirables like ex BNP supporters for example. The country formerly known as Britain no longer exists and it hasn't since 1975. We have been playing make believe ever since. Ever closer union is the aim of the EU. It aims to become the state of the European people, in fact it already is. Most just don't realise it yet. If your ok with that like Sturgeon and Salmond (that's if they realise, which I presume they do) then keep voting SNP. If not and you really want Scotland to be an independent country again (like I now do, but only in the context that it may be temporarily necessary for greater British harmony. In the end Britain will be united again after Scottish nationalism has run its course and the people of these islands who are ultimately one will forget our so called differences and want that. But I believe Scottish, Welsh and even English nationalism won't run out of steam until they've been given their turn. Otherwise they'll be a constant thorn in the side of British unity. You may say that the Irish don't want to come back but until they were members of the EEC now EU they were struggling. If the EU eventually breaks up which it might because of even more diverse nationalities than exist on these islands they may reject the Irish state and desire another British state with them as members, but I'm talking here of a future generation, maybe a far off one.) then I suggest you vote for a party that does, abstain or create a true independence rival (hopefully not a far right one). I know that most of you will think I'm talking nonsense but I suggest you do a little research and see the bigger picture. You may want independence from Westminster, but they barely run Scotland anymore, in fact they barely run the UK anymore. In fact it's Brussels and Strasbourg you need independence from and that includes all European nations. We don't need a European state nobody does except career politicians so they can make more money. Oh it prevents European wars some might say. Well as long as the countries of Europe are democratic states with no territorial ambitions outside their own borders that would never happen. It's no different to the argument that England and Scotland have to be united under a single state or else they will end up in the battlefield. Again as long as we are both free democratic countries this should never happen. So this is a false argument. This is why I think Scotland can perhaps and I emphasise perhaps (due to it's civic version of nationalism as opposed to most other EU states) lead the way.
  19. 1 point
    How very depressing. Mind you, reading some of the comments in the mod thread the past couple of weeks the winter "experts" haven't gone away this year.
  20. 1 point
    Joint 2nd warmest May and 2nd warmest Spring on record, according to GISS http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt
  21. 1 point
    I do not get the point. These shelves always do and have to go through a calving event. It has happened for who knows how many millions of years but now a (so called) numerical model is anticipating that the ice front is at risk of becoming unstable?. So what? has this not happened thousands of times before?
  22. 1 point
    Where did people think my forum handle came from? I've never actually skied in my life. Simple subterfuge.
  23. 1 point
    I use the Europe version not the world. It is not easy to decide just what the % expectations are, to me the May issue suggested a touch above normal T and about normal for rain but that is my idea, you or others may see it differently!
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