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A stunning image by Jean-Pierre Olmetta of explosive convection in Corsica - it looks like an eruption has happened. http://www.keraunos.org/actualites/fil-infos/2015/juin/orages-grele-vent-8-juin-2015-midi-pyrenees-languedoc-roussillon-alpes.html

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON WEDNESDAY JUNE 10TH 2015. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure will persist across Central Britain today with a thundery trough edging into SW England tomorrow. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE After a brief showery period settled and possibly very warm weather should return next week, especially in the South. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the Northern arm of the Jet much weaker and lying to the North of the UK. The Southern arm will lie across the Mediterannean early next week while the Northern arm regroups to lie North of the UK again, sinking slowly South across the UK later next week before breaking up again through the rest of week 2. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today again shows a move towards true Summer next week at least across Southern Britain as the thundery low pressure areas near Southern Britain over the weekend move away East and pressure builds across the South from the Azores. With warmer and humid air temperatures should be much higher than currently with plenty of warm sunshine with Northern areas though warmer less settled with a little rain at times. Late in the run another burst of thundery energy from the South is shown to affect the South of the UK despite High pressure being maintained close by to the South again later. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run also shows a lot of High pressure based weather but after next weeks warmth from the Azores High it becomes less favourably positioned to ensure maintained warmth with cooler air shown back again with some showers at times in the second week THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today again show High pressue likely to lie out to the West and SW in two weeks time though with somewhat less vigour than yesterday showing more of a NW flow for many with a few showers possible especially across the North. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO shows thundery Low pressure clearing away East early next week as a ridge from the Azores High moves in by Tuesday. Low pressure out to the NW may affect the NW at times though by midweek next week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts indicate High pressure declining later this week as the UK becomes home to thundery Low pressure along with NW Eurpe in general before the NW show things cooling down again and clearing by the start of next week. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120. GEM GEM today shows the thundery showery air at the weekend slowly replaced from the West by a ridge of High pressure. warm and eventually very warm weather reaches the South on this system after midweek with the North somewhat more cloudy and damp while all areas see a drop in temperatures somewhat by the end of the period though High pressure remaining well in control for all.. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows thundery Low pressure slowly exiting the SE early next week as a strong ridge of High pressure from the Azores sits on our doorstep by midweek next week with fine very warm and sunny weather in the South by the middle of next week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif. ECM ECM too shows showery thundery Low pressure edging into Southern Brtain at the end of the week lasting through the weekend before High pressure builds down from the NW to start next week and settles across the South delivering some very warm and sunny weather here while the North may turn more cloudy with a little rain in the far NW as fronts brush by to the North. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows strong support for High pressure from the Azores to be ridged across the UK from the SW delivering fine, warm and sunny weather to many especially in the South. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend remains for High pressure to re-establish across Southern Britain from the middle of next week, better positioned to deliver much warmer air than of late. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.7 pts followed by UKM at 95.6 pts and GFS at 95.3. At 5 days ECM leads GFS at 85.6 pts with UKMO at 82.03pts and GFS at 81.1 pts. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 47.7 over 42.1. Then at Day 10 ECM remains slightly ahead of GFS at 29.5 pts to 20.7 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig MY THOUGHTS The models are continuing to develop a much more Summery look to them at last as the cool Northerly aspect wind and cool temperatures by night look to finally becoming a thing of the past next week as High pressure ridges up from the Azores across the Southern half of the UK at least. There is still some jostling around between the outputs on the overall longevity of this anticipated very warm period with some outputs indicating the chance that cooler and potentially showery air might return later but the ECM long term mean looks pretty solid on suggesting a very favourable position for the UK in 10 days and the GFS' s clusters aren't bad either with some sort of link between High pressure to the SW and a possible secondary build of pressure over Scandinavia. I must mention also that parts of the North may be on the fringes of this fine weather with some cloud and possible drizzly rain affecting the far NW at times later next week and this cooler air may extend further South at times through the second week but Eastern Scotland at least could benefit from very warm temperatures too in fohn effect conditions too for a time if things evolve as shown. While June is proving to be an OK sort of month so far in weather terms temperatures have never been that impressive and very low by night but I feel the bar is about to be raised and by the middle of next week it could be that two thirds of the UK at least could share some fine very warm days and warm nights with plenty of sunshine and the mostly dry start to June (after the first few days) look like being maintained with the exception of the local downpours of the coming days. Next update from 08:00 Thursday June 11th 2015

It is with the deepest regret that I have to inform you our dear friend and weather buddy Chris Mantle lost his short battle with cancer and passed away last night. Chris was a big part of our community on the SE & EA thread, for those of us that had the pleasure of meeting him in person at our regional get together events know he was a true gentleman, although some of us have moved on from Netweather I thought I would share the sad news as I'm sure there are still many here who will remember him fondly - RIP Chris x

Honestly Gordon, you'd do yourself a massive favour by getting some help to overcome that fear. Anxiety is far too draining to just leave it.

Good bye Chris, it was a pleasure to chat to you over the years, thanks for all you did for here and elsewhere. Deepest condolences to your family and friends.

First post for some time. Only seen 3 days or so of anomaly charts but the 3 main ones seem fairly consistent with their pattern, so these are my notes written this morning. Wed ec-gfs and both keep the idea of heights from sw/wsw much as noaa so I would plump for this upper pattern for the 6-12 maybe 15 day period; heights shown building off sw Alaska, if that follows the winter set up then height rises in the Greenland area seem unlikely and as usual the links that led me to post the above. That is after the weather into and over this coming weekend which 'may' bring excitement to quite a few areas by the look of things. Don't expect it to occur in every back garden though, rainfall predictions even 12 hours out let alone further and storms even more so are notoriously difficult to get right. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

Looks a bit lonely on his own, so have given him some friends.

Well the weekend does not look to warm especially for England and Wales on Sunday. under that old frontal boundary. In fact if that chart verifies there could well be some record daytime lows

If last Friday was not a good enough lesson for people - plumes mean carnage and complete unpredictability! Storms fired in places which no model accurately depicted and where storms had been shown to fire, they didnt. Once the humid air is in place, sit and wait. A key thing to be mindful of is storms can fire in 15-20 minutes, going from Cu puff to fully electrified and torrential storm. Look for these signs (taken during last Friday's plume) and keep your fingers crossed

Sad to hear about Chris Mantle, I never had the pleasure of meeting him in person but from what Ali posted he was as friendly and sincere in person as he was on the forum, a man of decency and principle......condolences to his family and loved ones

Would currently agree starting a new game "hot spot" This is just for fun!! But this is currently my hot spot

Kind of puts the weather into perspective.

You can say what you like about these types of charts, but they have been showing pretty much the same for 72hrs.

Saturday looks a bit bleak for our neck of the woods doesnt it Frosy. Very wet, breezy and cool! Lets hope thats the last of the poor weather, because as you say things after this weekends antics look a lot better. Becoming settled and warm with strong support from the ensembles for pressure to remain above 1020 from next monday pretty much to the end of the run, along with temps around 20C (seeing as GFS undercooks them a bit) so it looks great heading into the second half of June

To be honest for once in a blue moon I'm just glad to get rid of this awful north east wind and cloud, 12/13c does not make a good summer. It's great in winter if it brings snow, but at no other time is it liked.

Nice CAPE charts for my neck of the woods I think its the South Wests turn for some fun! GoPro and SLR will be charged tonight. I have a good feeling about this.

Sleep tight Chris. It's sad to read of his passing. I always enjoyed his enthusiasm in the snow cup and he always seemed like a lovely fella. If there is a heaven, he'll have the pleasure of having the most wonderful view of the weather anyone could wish for. Condolences to his family and friends.

Uk Weather Scientific's take on things...safe to say my excitement is building being near the middle of a warning zone for a change...subjects to amendments of course: Their probability map (0-1 scale with 1 being 100% risk): http://www.weatherscientific.co.uk/2015/06/10/very-lively-friday-biggest-storms-of-the-year-for-some/ Looking forward to ESTOFEX's thoughts.

Loved that explosive convection.. got a less impressive picture of similar in east Kent last friday.. some slow crawling rumblers passing through all day. Fingers crossed for this week!

The models have tended to shunt everything a little further north this morning, reflected in the FAX charts and that the GFS is stalling the resulting front over the England/Scotland border by Saturday. The GFS showing temperatures into the mid to high 20s on Friday over Central/Southern England. NMM showing a maximum of 29C in London. Rainfall looks quite scattered so there is little point taking every run as gospel to be honest. The risk is still there of a substantial thundery outbreak, especially across England and Wales.

Im still not overly convinced on this stuff tomorrow night, however Friday Morning and Early Afternoon looks very interesting indeed, still not sure whether to stay on the isle of wight or go for a mainland chase! As theres a chance of Elevated stuff too! Though as the day goes on, to me it looks like it just goes into a general area of thundery rain..... But it looks interesting either way

This evenings GEFS 12z mean shows an increasingly settled outlook from the start of next week and gradually becoming warmer too as the Azores high builds towards the uk, the Gefs / ecm ens mean have been showing this for a few days now and for what it's worth, I think we are going to see a change for the better between mid / late June.

Let's hope so Chris, I'm sure most of us on here would welcome a spell of settled and warm weather, the Ecm 12z looks very promising.

ECM shows the high re-establishing its self strongly next week temperatures should be in the high teens / low 20's maybe even the mid 20's for some parts if the 850's start and rise sufficiently

Well I've had a good storm fix already! As I said earlier my drive to Poitiers was a bit rough, heavy rain all the way and it didn't stop until 1500 today. Was woken up by a stroboscope effect at my window at just after 0400 - no thunder, just distant flashes amplified by the misty low clouds. 0540 the real action started with CG strikes, but it was very briefly overhead with very loud thunder, before all the electrical activity disappeared. I got onto the SNCF site to see if I could find a train to Poitiers rather than driving, but it was too late and I would have had to drive to Limoges through the torrents anyway. Plenty of flashes on the way up,but annoying that I couldn't watch properly while driving. The spray was horrendous on the roads, and there were many accidents this morning - including the father of one of my students who was skidded into by a maniac at a roundabout who aquaplaned, and had his car very badly mangled. Spectacular CBs on the way back this evening, and I ran into some brief downpours - but - my neighbours say I missed the best storm of the day by about half an hour. Plenty more action to come over here, and I hope you do get some of our exports. Turned into the most beautiful evening after all the action, but the clouds have pegged back the temps.

Some great looking charts to view this evening with regards Friday's potential storms. Should be a very interesting afternoon for some people! The GFS 12z sequence is forecasting that the S/SE of the Region will fare better this time (Kent, Sussex and Surrey). Still looking like Essex, Suffolk & Norfolk might miss out, although will still get the band of heavy rain later on Friday and into Saturday. Fri 12.00 15.00 18.00 The NMM output in agreement with the GFS. Fri 17.00: Today's bulletin from the Met Office Chief Forecaster confirms the potential for some severe storms, but also the complexity of the situation: Chief Forecasters Assessment 10/6/15 An area of warm, very humid air is expected to move northwards across France into southern Britain later on Thursday and into Friday. Whilst isolated thunderstorms are possible from Thursday, these become more likely and potentially more severe by Friday afternoon, with the potential for 20 to 30 mm falling within an hour or so, probably on a very localised basis. Indications are that a more organised band of heavy rain and thunderstorms will follow by Friday evening and overnight into Saturday, bringing 25 to 50 mm of rain more widely, again with the potential for some very high short-period totals. Given the complexity of the developments leading up to this event, ideas on areas at greatest risk of heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorms may well change, and this warning will be updated accordingly. Met Off Risk Area:

Gutted to hear about Chris Mantle, had the pleasure of corresponding with him on here with over the past 2 or so years.. R.I.P my weather friend

UFO!

Hmmm, not the best GFS but out of the 3 models that have come out already it wants to drive low pressure the furthest south next week.

Probably because the initial burst of energy moves off to the West into the Atlantic but there will be plenty more energy to come into Friday. It may well help because less cloud left over means higher temps/humidity building Friday morning and then it could all kick off from midday onwards and particularly mid afternoon into the evening. Having said that I wouldn't be surprised to see some elevated activity moving inland from the South Coast first thing on Friday.

So here's my reckoning from the 12z Perfect cross model agreement of a super electrified CG-madness MCS cell to envelope the whole country from 3-7pm, lightining every 2 secs and darkness in daylight.... Of course with no damages/injuries

Let's hope it stands and delivers?!

Hmm this thread could struggle due to the combination of the UK's record with plume events and the websites swear filter.

Friday could be the warmest day of the year in the UK with highs in the SE potentially reaching 27c or 28c and with some thunderstorms around its going to be a very humid day By Saturday the rain moves further north where it's a lot fresher with temperatures in some places struggling to get into double figures fresher in the south as well, but the temps here still around 20c and with some sunshine it will be a pleasant day Sunday is cooler for all with a lot of cloud and temperatures well below normal in some areas the southwest may be the exception with temps in the mid to high teens but elsewhere 11c to 13c looks the average By Monday temperatures should be edging up slightly as the high begins to re-establish its self Then from Tuesday temperatures rise towards the high teens and low 20's in some areas

Here's a few photos that I took of the amazing structure.

R.I.P Chris had the pleasure of meeting you and a great input into the forum rest in peace buddy

Indeed, a very sad day. May he rest in peace. Thanks for letting us know, AM.

Fingers crossed then I have a car so if a chase is required it shouldn't be a problem

The GFS indicating that nighttime minima could stay in double figures next week. Will mean that the warmth lasts longer into the evening.

'Too far east' Well we don't hear this very often, unless we are talking about the storm itself!

You're right Steve. I shouldn't take local gossip as gospel. Seems the highest point is Great Wood Hill, on the Newmarket Ridge, at 420 feet. Wattisham Base a mere 299 feet! Today looking better, if we can get the cloud to break later, as forecast. I'm starting to think that Friday's thunderstorms might be best to the west of our Region. Possibility that the east of Suffolk and Norfolk (for instance) my miss out this time. Overall, the charts still look good for the southern UK though. This morning's charts: CAPE & LI Rainfall

Thought you'd like to know that just as I'm getting ready to set off for work in Poitiers, the rumbles and flashes have started over the hills. EDIT: Massive CG strike on hill just nearby - I will stay calm and drive within my capabilities... EDIT: Almost constant thunder, incredible lightning all around every few seconds. Need to go, will try and get back on later when I get to Poitiers (if I get to Poitiers - hmm).

It was a couple of nights ago that a storm and its tornado was reported to be anticyclonic, the northern hemisphere is usually the other way round. some great footage here of an unusual event. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-33069918

Wow, even a clearly defined overshooting top on that one - a sure sign that it is a severe thunderstorm... which it was.

Yes! This storm was nuts of the highest proportion. The rate that it was striking at was incredible shown on lightning maps, it was struggling to keep up! Also on sat 24 it exploded like an atomic bomb and it's upper outflows actually reached the shores of East Anglia would you believe! Unfortunately, this storm took 6 peoples lives, so although it has ranked in the epic storms of all storms category, we need to spare a thought for the devastation that they can also bring. Stunning satellite image of the Armageddon storm!

Will somebody please nuke that bloody azores high so its replaced by a azores low, maybe then we would get a bloody southerly instead of the incessant northwest/northerly... Its time for some HEAT

i think those temps will be modified somewhat nearer verification - the GEM and to an extent the UKMO are not as cool. But no doubt there will be some chilly nights and likewise any proper warmth does seems to be eroded as it gets nearer. Also worth noting the last couple of GEM runs haven't made much of the pressure rise next week - much flatter than the GFS and ECM so we'll see how that goes.

just for the record, frosty normally posts a series of charts from a whole plethora of time scales, and accordingly posts summaries of his thoughts on said charts.....some might verify, some don't.....but to state that cooler, wet weather is set to return on the 25th with one chart (way way out in FI) posted is hardly a valid comparison to frosty's posts......All model discussion is valid in this thread, even LRF modelling such as the CFS, but please, for everyone who views this thread, T192 onwards is for trend spotting, not forecasting per se

Actually, I posted gfs 6z charts for the whole of low res, and much of it shows very warm and settled weather, if you are going to be critical of someone, at least get your facts right!