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Here are some cloud shots of this morning's storm approaching and passing over. Pleased I got a bit of structure! Not really post processed much as yet plus a few rain blobs, please excuse! I think this may be the closest thing to mothership type structure that I will get in this country. Mostly lighting was within the clouds, torrential rain, small pea sized hail at one point, ground is saturated with standing water.

Here are some cloud shots of this morning's storm approaching and passing over. Pleased I got a bit of structure! Not really post processed much as yet plus a few rain blobs, please excuse! I think this may be the closest thing to mothership type structure that I will get in this country. Mostly lighting was within the clouds, torrential rain, small pea sized hail at one point, ground is saturated with standing water.

some ridiculous posts recently regarding the gfs 06z,,, its mainly dry HORRAH! there would be alot of sun HORRAH! apart from a blip here and there itll be reasonably warm, feeling warmer still in the strong sun HORRAH! and there not much in the way of a strong breeze HORRAH! so what if theres no real heat just yet... that will come, it will turn hotter, (i say so! ) and if it turns wet we would be yearning for sunny dry weather!

This would be the same cell as 'Clouds Above' photographed. The structure is obviously the same. Tracking through the radar sequence, it formed near Crawley at 5:00, tracked along the M25, over Dartford, went east of Chelmsford, North of Colchester and Ipswich and finally lost its identity somewhere near Beccles at 8:00. Almost constant constant thunder heard, from what was mostly intracloud lightning. Another storm formed soon afterwards and had a similarly long track, but went slightly east of this.

The Ecm 12z is a really good run with the week ahead dominated by high pressure bringing long spells of very strong sunshine and light winds, as for temperatures, pleasantly warm first half of next week with chilly nights but then becoming warmer by day and night, very warm or hot in the south towards the end of next week, a risk of thundery showers later..what else can I say apart from B A N K

I finally managed to get a shot of the Wedge processed

I don't think this rather marginal feature has been a let down at all. Storm fans in Kent, Essex and East Suffolk have had a superb treat today. Everytime there's a sniff of storms posters on here talk-up their chances and then throw their toys out of the pram when it doesn't happen. I was close to posting a word of warning yesterday when I saw talk of all nighters in the areas where storms were unlikely. I checked the BBC forecast last night and there was a "chance" of an elevated storm in the south and east and more breaking out in the far SE and EA during the afternoon. If anything what came to pass was in excess of what was forecast. This is the UK where moderate weather rules. If you want 4 foot snow drifts and supercells every year, either move to another country or stop wishing for the highly unlikely from our own weather.

based on what? That really is cherry picking! neither the UKMO or ECMFW show that happening at the timeframe you claim? but if we're cherry picking the GFS then yes, you're right:

The Gfs 6z in low res looks really nice, it shows a scandi high forming and linking up with the Azores high to bring a nationwide fine and warm spell. In the meantime, this weekend will be fresher with sunny spells, mainly dry apart from blustery showers in the far northwest. Next week looks largely fine and pleasantly warm across England and Wales with high pressure in control bringing good spells of sunshine but the high gradually sinks south and the north turns more unsettled, especially for Scotland and northern ireland after midweek. A widespread cooler unsettled blip at the end of next week but then signs of fine and warm conditions returning.

very early days folks....the plume is just showing signs of destabilizing in the mid-levels with elevated convection over Brest and now firing near the Channel Islands which is pretty much on schedule......all this talk of 'bust'..a tad premature!

That's well outside the reliable timeframe. I find it amusing that you accuse others of cherry picking charts, and then you yourself cherry pick charts that are even further out and have far less chance of verifying!

It's 2am in Colorado, and I'm guessing that everyone has had a couple of cold beers and is trying to get the adrenaline under control before it all starts again tomorrow, so I borrowed a couple of the photo's from the team to share here, hopefully we'll get more added by the guys and guests later when they surface : Nick F's twins Lovely structure as well as tornadoes today, another from Nick Another view of the tornado from Paul, you can see the green tint of huge hail in the meso And Dave sums it up nicely. PS that needs washing :-)

Fantastic Day on the Palmer Divide which rarely fails to deliver with 61f dewpoints. A few pictures of the numerous we Have showing 2 Tornadoes on the ground at the same time. Epic Day with 8 Tornadoes!

This a storm thread, not a bleeding spider thread! I don't want to wince at every quoted message!

Started the day in Scottsbluff, NE. Headed down to Ogallala for lunch and made the decision to dive south west to play the Denver cyclone. We were treated with a near stationary LP supercell near Limon, CO that dropped at least 8 tornadoes! Many pics and video were taken. At one point there was a lovely cone and landspout satellite on the ground! Here's a quick video of one of the tornadoes. The structure was unreal with a visibly fast move meso on it! 7 years of chasing and this is by far the best chase I've had to date!

A very good run from the ECM 12Z to follow up the lovely run from the UKMO. Great to see some support for the UKMO- the Euros seem to be going for that Iberian low again, which is great for bringing up that warm air from the south and east.

Reporting in from Carcassonne, France where we've had three consecutive days of sunny skies and high temps in the low 30s. Sitting outside with a beer now at 7pm local time and it's still 29c. Feels very hot in the middle of the afternoon but dew points are low so very comfortable mornings and evenings. Loving the warmth (food and wine are good too!).

HOLY CRAP!! Huge bolt, fire alarms going off, buzzing in my ears

Gorgeous pics there skiesabove!! Here's the extent of my experience this morning - the first two being the Rochester/Maidstone cell. The second too are from the past 10 minutes, first looking west, second looking east. Skies starting to look a bit agitated again and humid feel increasing.

Latest EC32 update. Firstly it has the upper trough feeding down from the pole and slack LP over France next weekend.bringing slightly lower than average temps. But it is quite transitory as low pressure over the Pole eases and and the Azores ridge builds slowly from the SW and warmer air arrives with temps slightly above normal by the 24th. This ridging never becomes dominant and with the HP centred to the SW and low pressure over Greenland a slack zonal flow ensues mainly from the W/SW with temps around average more or less to the end of the run to the 6th July. Summary Apart from next weekend a fairly pleasant outlook with perhaps some warm weather in the third week of June

just went outside for quick weather update.....Wow! the clouds are dark and menacing, I'm not surprised.... ...as it's one o'clock in the bloody morning!

ok, for the steering of these showers/storms, have a look at the 500hpa & 300hpa wind flow on the GFS or NMM (comes out in about 10 mins) or for those with NW Extra radar, choose the v4 version and use the windflow overlays.....storms firing over Brest will track across the channel to affect Dorset/Hants and into parts of Wilts/Surrey & West Sussex....as the plume is destabilizing, expect more convection to fire more readily over the next hour or two edit.....one electrified cell over Brest is already pretty active

So what is the trigger for these storms? Even France is quiet right now. Typical I could pick any other hobby avaliable in England yet I am drawn to the two things that elude us the most, Snow and Thunderstorms. haha

But haven't you cherry picked the charts to suit your view above? FI charts at that. The reliable timeframe holds plenty of useable, dry and pleasent weather for many, albeit a tad on the chilly side at night. Then FI does what FI always does, each model going in a different direction. Nothing in the long range anomaly based predictions indicate anything other than variances on average June conditions though. Get out and enjoy the current useable weather, it looks like the predominant weather type for the foreseeable. And as a side note, what's with the pic of the dog?

I think the GEFS 12z mean is very encouraging both in the short term and further ahead with the next week or so dominated by high pressure bringing pleasantly warm and dry weather with good sunny spells and although there is a cooler less settled blip at the end of next week, the Azores high builds in a few days later with a return to warmer and sunnier conditions.

The ukmo 12z shows the best possible outcome next week with a very pleasant spell for all parts as the UK based anticyclone drifts slowly east and becomes centred slap bang on top of the UK by T+144 hours, we would see temperatures into the low 20's celsius during the second half of next week on this run. I think next week is going to be a good one for most areas, at least for England and Wales, high pressure in control, light winds and a good deal of sunshine and pleasantly warm but with chilly nights where skies clear.

This. Did you actually see the forecast? They haven't forecast snow for my area tonight, but I'll be on here in the morning to complain about the lack of it.

Diabolical output. Plenty of winter lovers in the MOD thread cheering it on though. have a feeling if I did the opposite in winter I would soon be shot. Lol.

Meanwhile,across the pond(usa) courtesy of lakeFX.net https://tvnweather.com/live/chasers/847783747

Unfortunately, Its called Cherry Picking....

Please please weather Gods, let it be so. GFS v UKMet & ECM. Only one way this can go, surely?

Complete agree with this. It seems to be a rarity nowadays for continental plumes to deliver the goods here. It does happen, but it is that rare that us storm fans can normally rattle those very few dates out off the top of our heads. Since the start of 2013 - July 22nd/23rd 2013, June 9th 2014, July 17th-19th 2014. I realise the far SE of Kent may have had more but these are the three (yes three) widespread plume events over the last 2 years. Now ask a storm nut from Holland to rattle off dates of storms - if they could they should be on Hollands Got Talent!

This was the first tornado we saw the Simla, CO supercell produce in the distance, as we arrived from the northeast, as we got closer it continued to drop more tornadoes as the above pictures show!

Just the one pic from me as I only took a handful of shots with the SLR

That's the thing with storms. Unless there's an exceptional event, most people are likely to miss out. I did far better than I was expecting today. Have low expectations and you won't be disappointed IMHO (unless jealousy is an issue) Also, at some point, most people will strike the jackpot. Having a chilled drink in the Pointer, enjoying the Summer weather.

The GEFS mean also supporting a pressure rise from the SW so a cool northerly may be short lived.

At least the GFS 6z wants to build high pressure in for the start of the following week, so its better than the abysmal 0z. But still the GFS is sticking with the idea of a very disappointing cool weekend. But theres so much uncertainty.

Well despite the presence of HP for close to a week the overall cool pattern looks set to continue, with the latest 10 day anom showing means of 1 to 4c below normal across the next 10 days from Jonny Scroats to Lands End. http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html Unless we see a significant warm up during the 2nd half of June, which doesn't look very likely at present, this could turn out to be a very cool month indeed. As is typical in this neck of the woods, we still manage to be anomolously cool when Moscow is in a heatwave or also anomolously cool...

Now now PM, The ECM is quite different. It has the French LP by Friday 06 popping into the North Sea then dissipates it. It then whizzes a little LP in from the west bringing quite wet conditions Friday night Saturday morning.with temps just below average. This, by now diffuse area of low pressure, moves into the North Sea bring very short lived northerlies before NWs set in from the Azores high. A quite different scenario than that of the GFS. I'll settle for Melton Mowbray.

So the GFS goes into the ..... erm .... fridge, the UKMO on the other hand looks likely to produce some very warm or even hot weather. Cut-off low over Biscay with a ridge stretching up from southern Europe into the UK with the winds backing south of east. The output is a bit of a mess at the moment with microscale features having potentially a massive impact based on where they end up.

This would be some potent N'ly for mid June...-5 uppers not far from touching N Scotland GFS hinting at air frosts just a week from the solstice

that'll be the trains edit - that's was a good line until the false positive

http://webcam.iwibox.net/webcam.php?stream=pleneuf0 http://webcam.iwibox.net/webcam.php?stream=pleneuf1 Two webcams to view the lightning on in france right now.

TWO touching down at the same time now in the usa ,same location and feed as for here,more strikes showing now S of the channel islands,i don't think i will see owt here in the morning,looks to be heading IOW terr and NE of that unless something crops up further west,night chaps,looking forward to your media if any.

et voila....a second elevated storm fires 50 miles west of the first one over Brest

And there we have it, first couple of sferics detected just southwest of Jersey! Here we go!

Patience is virtue.

I watched it on Daniel Shaws stream this is the pic he put on twitter. https://twitter.com/DanielShawAU/status/606608261240856577/photo/1 Just had a light shower here, from that stuff that's dying of further east in the channel just hitting east kent.

Through till 0600

We'll talk about this later - not "stuck in" attending to make you aware of the need to improve your driving style and the impact that inappropriate excessive speed can have. Sorry - I worked for Speed Watch as a Town Councillor - a five year old child died in my ward hit by a speeding car (just 40 in a 30 - but you know the stats), and I'm sick of people doing 40 in my 20 zone and then at the junction being unable to get out because people are doing 50 in the 30 zone. Anyway, enjoy what show you get storm wise...