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Showing content with the highest reputation on 31/05/15 in all areas

  1. A clue was given in yesterdays post to what we are seeing this morning, which suggested that there was a possibility that the models might over amplify the initial upper ridge and hence the longevity of the initial plume might be (just a little) over-cooked . It appears to be the development of the shortwave west of Ireland around t120 to t144 - which is causing some headaches in the modelling (and, so it seems, even greater ones for model watchers) The Global Wind Oscillation continues to suggest an elastic-band pinging back to lower AAM phases 1/2. These phases, as mentioned often before, buckle the jet stream south across the Atlantic, which pulls colder air south into the Atlantic where the jet digs south, and hence this amplification potentially causes a deepening of any shortwaves ahead of it. The u-bend shape of the jet means that the ridging behind the shortwave activity is also amplified. http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20150531/06/114/hgt300.png The GFS phases the energy of the shortwave trough to the NW with the thundery heat low moving up from Biscay. This sharpens further the boundary lines of the two different air-masses - with the cooler Atlantic air digging in behind the unstable humid air ahead of it. http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015053106/gfsnh-0-144.png?6 The ECM phasing develops the heat-low feature further south, rather than absorbing it into the circulation of the shortwave trough further north as the GFS does http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015053100/ECH1-144.GIF?31-12 Whichever way you slice these, It is the classic 1/2/3 fine days and a thunderstorm pattern in the UK Meanwhile, the UKMO simply tracks the shortwave NE away to the NE of Scotland without any interaction with the instability to the south - and the heights over Europe connect to the ridging in the Atlantic as a string of anomalous mid latitude ridges. This is the 'non-breakdown' solution - even though the other solutions are on a high pressure re-load anyway (Keeping the weather fair and more stable, this would be my personal favourite outcome ideally ) The problem with too much attention to the shortwave development, and the different ways that the models are handling the shortwave phasing (or not as the case may be) draws attention away from the bigger picture which keeps the same theme as suggested before. Timing might lead to short term disappointment of expectations, but aside from the end of week hiccups,, and the fact that the plume evolution is not as 'clean' as it might have looked (at face value for those interested specifically in storms and heat) the general theme, as expected is still similar. It is the handling of the shortwave tracking NNE to the NW which determines how the following ridge approaches us from upstream - as much as it affects the longevity (and shape) of the downstream heights over Europe which draws up the warm and humid air ahead of the shortwave to the west So, - the likelihood of a thundery plume end of this week/weekend, and then a further pressure rise thereafter as suggested yesterday is still the same message today. Its going to get warmer - that is all that matters in my opinion at the moment. The detail will take care of itself Edit: I've posted repeatedly about this matter I know, but to get the countrywide improvement that has been promised, we need to see the back of these low AAM phases http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/nschiral/research/gwo/gfsgwo_1.png The persistent flooding of the Atlantic in cold air that this state brings, will interrupt the processes of nationwide pressure ridging and taking the jet stream permanently further north - and hence why the METO forecast today is changed to suggest relatively unsettled conditions persisting in the NW next week. This does not preclude the upcoming warming trend, but it does mean that getting the Atlantic to quieten down (for all of us) is proving a little stubborn - just for the time being. 2nd edit - little point in making a separate post : Consistent UKMO 12z which fully illustrates my post yesterday about one High pressure cell being replaced by the next upstream in the Atlantic. http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2015053112/UN96-21.GIF?31-18 http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2015053112/UN120-21.GIF?31-18 Day 6 modelling effectively takes us to where we shown to be yesterday. Its easy to see where the modelling heads from here..... http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2015053112/UN144-21.GIF?31-18 The 'in the middle part' around day 5 with the shortwave engaging the plume is a smokescreen to the bigger picture - which remains the same whichever model is right with the plume/ hortwave movements....... we still end up back with the same pattern Far too much silly hysteria over all this - and especially intra day GFS output methinks
    16 points
  2. Well, let's take a trip back to July 2013 when you were the harbinger of doom, parroting the slightest hint of a breakdown in the deepest depths of fantasy island, even though it never, at any point, materalised, and indeed the warmer then average conditions persisted throughout August and September. Going by the above, we can come to the conclusion that you're not being realistic.
    8 points
  3. The one thing I want to know is - why do certain members only ever make a contribution whenever the models start showing crap weather? One would think that they actually enjoy cold northwesterlies in summer! This unrelenting pessimism that some people have is incredibly irritating - and I sincerely hope they don't take that approach to life in general.
    8 points
  4. Oh, lively in here. Theres a difference between spreading pessimism and keeping it real. It's always amusing to me, when those that post FI heatwaves are never chastised for being overtly optimistic. Gotta love these parts, always a smile.
    7 points
  5. PM... I said 'Given the kind of charts we've seen across the last 48-72hrs the overnight runs are disappointing at best and downright awful IF compared with the recent stellar offerings.' I standby that statement and am certainly not getting carried away in making it....it's all about opinions and that's mine. Let's see what the 06 brings, but imo it won't be a million miles from it's 00 counterpart.
    7 points
  6. Agree with this BA, but in all honesty that would probably be a given going into June considering just how cold it's been and still is.....it's hardly anything worthy of major celebration imo. Given the kind of charts we've seen across the last 48-72hrs the overnight runs are disappointing at best and downright awful IF compared with the recent stellar offerings. As CS has just said the Jet does look likely to me much stronger than expected, so imo all bets are off once again (despite my optimism yesterday), with warmer but still inherently unsettled just not floating my particular boat.
    7 points
  7. The only thing banked is that it will get warmer. It will. also, there will be a build in euro heights. There will. Also that we will find ourselves in the action zone between the heights to our ese and any Atlantic troughing which could be courtesy of an Iberian trough (in which case it will be v humid and hot). the models are simply paying out alternative solution as the time ticks down and they get a lead on disturbances which were not able to be picked up by the higher res of the ens. that always happens. the ops may well prove to be wrong at a 6/7 days anyway. I'm just going to be happy to be out without a jacket on (if it's dry of course)
    7 points
  8. just to reiterate things, and albeit less politely than Scott, there's some absolute crap being posted in this thread by some members who seem to think that this forum thread is for point scoring and personal comments....Guess what?...It isn't... ...and for members who disagree with this and continue in their current vein might well find their posting abilities in this part of the forum disappear sharpish keep it civil if you are incapable of keeping it friendly, and let's knock the bickering and 'smart' comments on the head full stop......I thank you
    6 points
  9. Tamara made the most important point: whatever happens to the details, things are set to get warmer...
    6 points
  10. I really hope, for my sanity and especially those further north, that the next output has the plume positioned further west. I don't know how much more of this annoying northwesterly wind I can handle!!
    5 points
  11. Of course, and this was what had installed confidence; op & control on same page etc And as you say 'big changes' are now being indicated here is yesterdays 12z temp anom & its 0z counterpart / ecm det. days 6-10 / charts WeatherBell. That is quite the difference - and its ensemble mean, tho not showing such a contrast, has surprisingly backtracked in the space of 12 hours with a notable trend to shunt everything further east. GEFS/GFS has not had to alter its charts much.... rather consistent. A poor display from the ECM the last few days, lets not try and sugarcoat it. And speaking of GFS, the 6z is suggesting Fridays expected heat now appears suspect.... the way the models are moving we will be lucky if we get a day.
    5 points
  12. What this flags to me, is the mediocrity of the ECM as early as day 6.....which is thoroughly disappointing! as well as its ensembles. GFS picked up the idea that this would not be a spell, and merely a day or two. And its ens really were reluctant to ever back a hot spell... the latest GEFS shows some of us with a neg temp anom into days 0-16..... nothing notable on this update. Underwhelming, given the hype shown by some and the ECM.
    5 points
  13. It seems like winter but in reverse. First we see stella charts on edges of FI and then they get watered down overnight as we get nearer. BFTP
    5 points
  14. Day 5 charts ECM UKMO GFS GEM Not exactly oozing confidence even in the near reliable time frame. Some of the runs still deliver 30C potentially, on the other hand some runs would probably keep the maximum temperature of 25C set in April for the next week or so. Who knows but it seems that the models failed to pick up the strong jet coming off the eastern seaboard resulting in the flatter pattern now predicted.
    5 points
  15. Cant see it being cool/cold after wednesday, whilst it might not be silly high temps itll still be warm/average either with warm muggy uppers or fresh clear northwesterlies which will feel great in the strong sun. Im not disheartened, plenty of warmer weather on offer
    4 points
  16. I can see this going one of two ways either it won't happen at all and we'll all be in the NSC moaning or it will happen but in the usual areas and the members that usually miss out will miss out.
    4 points
  17. The 06z is unreal...3000 CAPE with LI of -9 across the SE quarter (I have not checked every single model update but that is a striking upgrade from 3-4 days ago...usually it goes the other way round) What strikes me even more is the contrast in airmass between the Spanish plume and what is diving out of Greenland behind it...whether eastward shift continues or not, somewhere across Europe are going to be some phenomenally powerful and violent thunderstorms based on those charts. It is not that common to have models indicating such contrasting air masses over the UK or the NW Europe generally, but adding the active jet into the mix we have a real possibility of supercells, or, even if not supercells in the text book sense, strong severe thunderstorms. An active cold front sweeping through could of itself introducing the potential for intense squalls, if the convection initiated action is limited. While premature, I'm inclined to maybe cheekily ask for next Friday off just in case something does materialise...the train strike may give me added excuse!!
    4 points
  18. You cannot deny that the models have undergone a big downgrade and it isn't just one run. 2 days ago a high pressure was forecast to be centred over Scotland next Saturday, now it's a low pressure, so unless you are a lover of miserable summer weather that's a downgrade! Long term things could still come together and the blip next weekend just a longer way if getting to the outcome we want. The MetO is still confident of a good June so that's enough to keep the dream alive. Meanwhile back in Cumbria (aka North East Iceland) it's another day of wind, rain and temperatures WELL below average. Andy
    4 points
  19. It is not one run though, the output has been getting worse with each run - the heat which was showing for here has completely vanished. Even the Metoffice have downgraded my temperatures for next Thursday for example. (Also mentions rain moving in later that day) The UK is one of the worst places to live if you are a weather enthusiast, always the last stop for any hot or cold weather - Mushy is spot on with his post, it is always the same no matter the season. I am sure we will still see some pleasant days here and a couple of hot days in the South though but I was really looking forward to seeing the kind of weather/temperatures that charts showed a couple of days ago and that all the other output was suggesting.
    4 points
  20. ha... didnt we have a similar scenario last year or earlier?... im sure a promised, supported, consistently expected hot spell was downgraded to a 12 hour wonder. thats the problem with rapid pressure build...they dont last or appear not to last as the mobile atmosphere that allows them to build is also responsible for their lack of longevity. no real point in viewing the ops from next sunday onwards, they are an inconsistent mess! but the anoms knocker posted will give the best indication as to what lies in store.... and they look warm but unsettled, with high to our east, upper low to our southwest. so the 'best start to june since 1975' (my quote) looks like being another dud. pity, id prefer early heat. never mind...its only weather.
    4 points
  21. Next weekend looks a scorcher, loving these Ecm 12z charts, I think low 30's celsius next weekend across southern uk and a risk of T-Storms breaking out, then the Azores high set to build in again. After weeks of cool unsettled dross, I'm really excited by the potential later next week onwards
    4 points
  22. Bolded bit : Do you mean for the whole of June? What's your synoptic evidence for that?
    3 points
  23. Recently had some hail showers this is a photo of the last heading off to the east. Currently 5.9c and sunny.
    3 points
  24. The Summer roller coaster has just Begun...! If you look at the ecm and gfs outlook tonight it really is a mess, just like a three ring circus with more clowns you can swing a stick too Read between the lines or isobars theres no really settled spell of weather on the way, if this trend continues then we will see lots of rain particularly for southern Britain ,perhaps thunderstorms too with some short lived plume warmth, but the plume predicted for the end of the week ,looks like its..........
    3 points
  25. I have the table of entries ready for posting later, so far 63 entries, median value is 15.1 and these mid-range values are not yet taken by anyone ... all 13.0 to 13.7, and 16.3, 16.5 to 16.8. There are clearly two schools of thought about the warm spell, two clusters of forecasts around 14.1 and 15.1 are evident. Will post this as close to midnight as possible, as I have plans to head out a bit before then. Can always edit in the later entries.
    3 points
  26. ECM will suggest just that, whether we should fall for it though is another matter entirely. Once bitten twice shy might be the term, but we've all been bitten far more times than we care to remember on here, both with Beasterlies and Iberian heat pumps....taking nothing as read once again.
    3 points
  27. So what has changed? Not a great deal. We have simply lost the Iberian upper trough enticing a proper system to establish down there and drive a plume ahead of it. the low ejects ne in the general flow of the jet and the heat is flattened to our south as will always happen without any decent amplification. I suspect gfs is currently too miserable on this system and it will be further west and shallower. Instead of heat, we get pleasant early summer temps and plenty of sunshine with it. Some decaying frontal systems crossing sw to ne. Will the following episode dig the trough and drag some heat up?
    3 points
  28. UKMO rock solid with Saturday's heat. In general, there's a lot of warm, fine weather being forecast with the odd fly in the ointment
    3 points
  29. About 25 years ago I was hillwalking the Nevis range with school. Roasting hot with not a drop of snow in sight. Global warming was all the rage then....
    3 points
  30. Looking at the BBC/Met Office projections for London; Friday 24C, Saturday 23C, Sunday 23C Hot? maybe to some. Looks in and around average to slightly above.... the bbc, to my knowledge, has not been suggesting 30C for London, unlike other forecasts I saw. Interestingly, the GFS is neck and neck with the UKMO in the recent verification stats day 6.
    3 points
  31. And others have made the equally important points that it couldn't really get any colder, nor any more volatile that the coming 48hrs and warmer/wet is not really of much use to anyone. My view of it is apart from the first few days of the new month things don't look overly poor going forward, with plenty more dry weather than wet on offer,
    3 points
  32. By we of course, you mean the SE of England. The latest 6z barely gets the +5 degree isotherm into the North West before it is pushed away by renewed Westerlies. Terrible performance by the models and the anomalies. The UK met was never really on board though but it helps that it only goes out to T+144. At least I don't have to bother getting the BBQ cleaned out this weekend. Terrible stuff.
    3 points
  33. Take the Met office..High pressure will settle to the north warmer than average for the north and plumes of thundery weather moving up from the south.. This is the met office.. The one that claimed the next few months the temperature would be in all likelihood higher than average. since they mentioned that.. after the warmish april.. Its been well below average. the whole of May as been very disappointing temperature wise. 2 years ago the met office claimed we are going to get 10 wet summers in a row. the last 2 have been dry.. sorry to complain. You cant really complain about the weather in th UK obviously. But am sick of the cold
    3 points
  34. Well we still hit the low 80s on the 06z GFS #Strawclutch
    3 points
  35. Even Friday's heat vanishing completely now, this is such a joke after the decent April, still not reached 20c here this year! and every weekend has had the exact same weather pattern, cool 11-14c Saturday, weather front Sunday grey till 6pm.
    3 points
  36. Re the AMO that has been known and anticipated for many years. Joe B'stardi has been one meteorologist beating that drum for example for years so nice to see other studies. Re hottest years ever....since 1910...that says enough. More heatwaves....lets see how this hugely anticipated on next weekend plays out....looking a heat 'snap' at best currently BFTP
    3 points
  37. Not sure they will be too many post this morning given the latest GFS and ECM runs, no doubt most will hold fire until this evening in the hope they prove to be nothing more than an extended bad dream, though some may re-emerge after the 06 if it looks better.... I think the one thing they do say is never assume anything in this game!
    3 points
  38. Who's celebrating? The Models show a steady transient to warmer weather, Nothing 'disappointing at best' or 'downright awful'. Very sweeping statements there, Let's not get carried away in the moment reg 1 run.
    2 points
  39. mmm, is it a one day wonder, ECM and GFS showing Friday as the only hot day, back to our usual Atlantic winds and low pressure by saturday, infact may not even reach 20C on Sat
    2 points
  40. And having consulted Mystic Meg and in anticipation of some posts this morning a quick look at the GEFS anomaly for00. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/
    2 points
  41. Good agreement with the anomalies last night at keeping the HP to the East and the weak upper trough to the west apart from the GEFS which moves everything slightly west. Charts weatherbell
    2 points
  42. Lots of disparity after the weekend with outcomes ranging from a COL to a pressure build to a low. Euro goes for a westerly pressure build..
    2 points
  43. If a lifted index of -8 and 2000j/kg of CAPE + a substantial jet overhead along with a storm chance of 70%+ is deemed not good, then I really don't know what is!
    2 points
  44. stodge : lets see shall we? Not all models support the suggested downgrade (beyond next weekend) that shows in those links you posted.
    2 points
  45. Much as I love the idea/possibility/even probability of mega-hotness in the SE next w/e, that of Sat 6th June ... Unstable, thundery, 27C to 30C level heat with risks of storms excites me FAR less than does hopes of sensible, settled, dry, warm and sunny weather. At 22C type level. With zero thunderstorm risk ... Bring THAT on for the rest of June, please! Say I!
    2 points
  46. Consideration noted, but a cool northerly?, For the love of god - summers in the UK are already on the cool side - the last thing we need is even cooler weather. It is supposed to be the season of warmth, not showers and cool weather. You have all year to enjoy that rubbish - we only have a precious 3 months to enjoy some heat and even then it's shaky.
    2 points
  47. The ECM mean does look good. Lots of very warm/humid/thundery conditions on offer with these sort of charts.
    2 points
  48. The folk in this forum will certainly unite in sending tons of love, light, and strength for you and your wee family DR(S)NO. xxx
    2 points
  49. Catch, are you going to post the equivalent charts for the GFS 18z.... Aye, thought not DR(S)NO - sorry to hear that. (Unfortunate) news like that puts everything into perspective. I suppose many people (on here anyway) immerse themselves in the weather as a hobby and also as a release, a distraction from rather more serious or high pressured situations that engulf their daily lives. In times such as you are currently experiencing, I hope you too find a release (in some form/capacity) which enables you to keep optimistic and 'seizing the day' inspite of rather testing headwinds to put it mildly. Keep the head up. My thoughts go out to you and if there is a supreme being up there, then I hope it can grant you a bit of positive news.
    2 points
  50. Hi folks... It never rains but it pours.....and unfortunately I'm not talking about the weather. Young Dr(s)No went in for scopes today before we go to a hospital down south for specialist help on his condition. Although initially they've gone well ...he's ended up with really bad bleeding and,to cap it off, he's ended up being sick( first time in months!!) and it looks as though the scope may have flared up his gut!! Unbelievable!! Now looks like he may not be able to go to the specialist after all and a postponement looks odds on.. Apologies for the non weather related post....but hey , it's good to talk If you you can spare a thought for the wee man it would be much appreciated. Cheers DR(S) NO
    2 points
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