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Showing content with the highest reputation on 26/05/15 in all areas

  1. I'm tempted to say that I'll eat my hat if this comes off ...especially as it's 2 weeks away. BUT you never know....the continent is hotting up nicely. Instead I'll say.......
    21 points
  2. That really is a dream setup PM, but it is a long way off. Even in the NW we could get up to 30C in such a setup. Not often that Manchester sees 30C outside of July or August. As much as I want that to come off, the details will no doubt change a lot closer to the time. What does seem likely though is that there will be a major warm up next week, with an end to the current rubbish from the NW!
    6 points
  3. HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON TUESDAY MAY 26TH 2015. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A light NW flow remains across the UK with a showery Westerly flow across Northern Scotland. A new set of troughs will approach Western Britain later tomorrow.. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A spell of changeable weather in the first week followed by warmer and more settled weather in Week 2. THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow will blow West to East across the UK over the next few days, moving slowly South and then back North after the weekend. Then later in the run the flow weakens and breaks up as High pressure builds near the UK later next week. The flow then remains light and ill defined with regard to the UK late in the run. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows a spell of breezy and changeable weather up and coming later this week and over the weekend as Low pressure swings East across the North and throws troughs East followed by more showery conditions. From next week High pressure builds strongly across the UK and then to the North with winds switching East with some warm continental air blowing over the UK but with the threat of some thundery showers across the South at times through Week 2. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run shows a rather different pattern later in it's run as the innitial changeable and cool spell later this week is shown to be replaced by a ridge of High pressure near the South moving East and sending a cople of days of very warm humid air North across the UK before a breakdown is shown to develop quite quickly with thundery rain. Thereafter Low pressure is back in charge with occasional wind and rain in sometimes cool weather shown towards the end of the run. THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today indicate an approximately 80/20 bias in favour towards High pressure likely to be lying close to or over the UK in two weeks time while there is just a 20% membership in the lower pressure camp with wind and rain at times under Atlantic Low pressure and troughs. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO this morning shows a blustery and relatively cool Westerly flow across the UK later this week and over the weekend as Low pressure areas move East to the North of the UK on occasion. Breezy and changeable weather would occur for all with rain and showers at times in temperatures at average levels at best. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts are looking quite changeable still with complex if weak troughs surround the UK at times in a rather cloudy NW flow. Clearer and showery weather on a Westerly flow late in the week is replaced by a further complex array of troughs moving up from the SW later in the weekend. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120. GEM GEM this morning looks equally changeable in sequence this morning with a spell of breezy and changeable weather with wind and rain at times lasting through to the start of next week when drier and warmer weather feeds North over the UK from the South as High pressure builds. The second half of the period then looks set fair with some fine and possibly very summery conditions especially across the North and West though a chilly NE breeze is shown to affect the South on this run. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM also shows the changeable and breezy conditions later this week lasting through the weekend and start of next week before things improve slowly across the South as High pressure is shown not far away to the South of the UK by the end of the run, restricting windier and continuing changeable conditions more towards the North only. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif. ECM ECM shows a similar theme to the rest as the changeable period lasts through to a weeks time before High pressure builds across the UK from the South from the middle of next week with increasingly warm, dry and sunny conditions for many to end the period. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows a broad belt of High pressure likely to lie close to the UK in 10 days time with the Jet Stream well away to the NW with likely fine and warm weather across much of the UK as a result. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend shown across the models this morning is for warm and settled weather under High pressure in a week or so time. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.7 pts followed by UKM at 95.8 pts and GFS at 95.3. At 5 days ECM leads UKMO with 86.9 over UKMO's 82.9 pts with GFS at 82.1. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 52.6 over 46.2. Then at Day 10 ECM remains slightly ahead of GFS at 30.3 pts to 28.4 pts. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig MY THOUGHTS The main theme of the models this morning is the change in the weather that looks likely to develop next week as nearly all models support an up and coming period of changeable weather with rain and showers being replaced by something much more like early Summer later next week. We have another day or two of benign weather under a slack NW flow before falling pressure from the West and North feeds some troughs across the UK with rain and then showers later this week. Then over the weekend a further Low to the NW will drive more rain bearing fronts NE over the weekend but it's behind these that conditions look like improving, first in the South over the early days of next week and then more widely as High pressure becomes much more prolific for all. Much of the output well supported by the ensembles indicate that a period of fine and warm or very warm weather is likely as we enter further into June although the risk of a few thundery showers across the South is also a possibility later. So all in all reasons to be optimistic that the UK could see some summery weather soon with the rains of the coming 4-5 days giving ideal growing conditions for many in the coming weeks as temperatures at last look like reaching the 20'C regularly from the middle of next week. Next update from 08:00 Wednesday May 27th 2015
    6 points
  4. Don't be surprised to see longer range differences between the GFS and ECM. They are both bringing the MJO back into a more amplified state but have different regions and those make a big difference to our neck of the woods. ECM wants to amplify through the Indian Ocean and that is not good for our prospects. GFS keeps the amplification further west; this correlates to a lovely high pressure scenario as depicted in current low res runs. Overview. ECMmonthly The difference between phase 1 and phase 2 for June.
    5 points
  5. deepest FI! i expect when that comes to be more low pressure dominated
    5 points
  6. Not sure you can claim to be right when any potential change is over a week away, but I'd like to think you will be - and I'm just simple hotelier, desperate for some decent summer weather to placate the guests who have moaned at me all month about how poor it's been.
    5 points
  7. Another good set of runs for early June and summer the good news as well is the beeb are coming on board now, the models will have done very well picking this up if it does indeed happen, we are getting some consistency now which is a good sign
    5 points
  8. Wow those temps have been downgraded by around 10C on GFS 12Z.
    4 points
  9. The GEFS 00z mean looks superb between early and mid June with high pressure domination and temperatures soaring into the low to mid 20's celsius. The northwest of the UK has had a poor spring compared to the south and east but from the second half of next week onwards it looks like a nationwide warmer and settled spell which is great news for the majority of us on here.
    4 points
  10. and the latest.. ... that puts me 'on board', as the gradual evolution of these charts do now suggest support for something settled and warm/hot/summery later next week.
    4 points
  11. The latest EC32 update for your delectation Starting on the June 2nd as this is about when the pattern change begins. The anomaly still has the LP SE of Greenland, vortex N. Canada, strong ridging Alaska and eastern Europe with Azores ridging SW of the UK. Surface analysis NW Pm still influential with temps below average. But by June 5th quite a change with HP over the Pole and to the east of the UK connecting to general area of HP to the SW, and much weakening of the LP. Surface analysis similar to this with warmer air creeping in towards above average temps. By the 12th main area of HP to the SW with weakish heights Scandinavia so still HP influencing the UK with temps a couple of degrees above average. This situation remains until the 26th with the trough Greenland making a brief appearance pushing SE from Greenland on the 18th. Temps above average. Summary. Another week of unsettled weather before HP takes over although there is no sustained build up of heights to the east with the AZ HP being the dominate feature and the possibility of little incursions of the trough to the NW but perhaps one shouldn't make too much of this. So June looks pretty good with temps a little above average but certainly no heat wave. There also remains the possibility of developments to the S/SE later in the month but no clear signal for this. In the shorter term the GFS is going for showery inclement day on Friday with low north of Scotland and a NW over the UK before the next frontal system on Sunday which has the potential to be quite damp. After that the HP to the east holds off all comers. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/
    4 points
  12. No! The 06 gfs run today showed highs of 31c and the 12z gfs is showing highs of about 21c that's the truth of it... Orientation of 'any' high being key here, just my opinion but I think the Atlantic will soon flatten things as we move through June.
    3 points
  13. Hi Folks, Just reading some of the posts on here for the last couple of days it looks certain that June will see high pressure bring a big change in our weather. Misleading to be honest. If you look at the bigger picture there is no concensus that high pressure will build totally across the nation ;any high pressure tease is still pushing the 10 day time frame.....Don't be fooled, just look at the past history of high pressure building in the ten day period and youre expectations will be very much lowered! Im afraid its hopecasting at the moment!
    3 points
  14. The GEFS 12z mean shows an end to the rather cool unsettled wly/nwly dross which has made this spring in the northwest of the UK very miserable. The charts below are just what the doctor ordered, a nationwide increasingly warm and anticyclonic further outlook coinciding with the start of summer. I hope this is just the beginning of a summer to remember for all the right reasons.
    3 points
  15. The METO have issued a statement categorically denying that approaches have been made to some of the stars in the other thread. However social media is still awash with speculation.
    3 points
  16. Chickens, eggs and hatched spring to mind here.... When in the 8-9 day range Flaming June could quite easily switch to Flaming Awful, just as Ranging Beasterlies morph into Whimpering Westerlies in Winter.....steady as she goes Captain!
    3 points
  17. Looking at the latest anomalies I would say the HP is pretty much nailed for next week but forecasting very high temps, convective outbreaks and precipitation amounts requires an expertise that even Mystic Meg doesn't possess and pretty pointless. Best guess scenario Chart weatherbell
    3 points
  18. The 6z really turns the heat up into week 2 of June, Touching 31c Hot! And good ingredients for Thunderstorms. A settled spell is well and truly on the way from the back end of the 1st week of June. As ever the Devil will be in the detail..
    3 points
  19. It always looks good out in those dark realms, but this is how it'll end up..
    3 points
  20. Morning All, For those that don't know me I will be driving the lead car on Tour 3 and also dealing with the technical side of things. I am staying in downtown Dallas on Friday but I am on the BA Flight that gets in at 13:40 local. I have set up a facebook chat for T3. If those who are not friends with me on facebook could you please add me (David Vicary) profile picture is in black and white and I have glasses on! Also if any of you need anything I will have my mobile on me UK and USA, you can reach me on 07811330767. It would be good to meet up at Heathrow for a sneaky beer!
    3 points
  21. The Ecm 00z shows the transition from unsettled to settled taking place during the middle of next week with high pressure building in. I think we are all in for a very summery spell beyond T+168 hours.
    3 points
  22. The GFS 00z shows high pressure building in next week and becoming centred to the east of the UK for a time which enables very warm and humid air from the continent to drift north, temperatures widely into the low to mid 20's celsius. There is also a risk of thundery rain / showers pushing up from the south during low res...anyway, I'm just very pleased to see a surge of warmth and high pressure next week.
    3 points
  23. Yes Mushy, A nice warm spell on the way with temps shown in the mid 20's by the back end of next week.
    3 points
  24. Also support from the 8 to 14 Day 500mb anomaly chart from the NOAA this evening to see a warmer and less disturbed spell developing with higher than average heights developing over, and to the East/North-East of, the UK. It continues to head in the right direction for those wanting to see some Summer-like conditions. A flow at the 500mb height from the South-West, so shouldn't feel quite as cool as some of these North-Westerly flows (particularly for the North) have delivered this month. Compared to the 6 to 10 day version of the chart, the UK becomes less influenced from the troughing and low heights to the North-West, although the best of the settled and warmest conditions would probably be towards the South and East. It's true, though, that the exact placement of High Pressure systems will have an affect on the distribution of the sunniest and warmest conditions across the British Isles. Perhaps could be worth getting the hampers, benches, mats and food out to have a picnic should the encouraging support for UK and Europe height rises keep continuing.
    3 points
  25. It had been a quiet season so far with very limited chase opportunities. Today looked like being the best day for a while with widespread thundery showers quite likely. The risk of organised storms was low due to very little wind shear and fast storm motion. It was not the best day to attempt chasing, today would require me being in the right place at the right time. My target area was around the Humber, although exactly where I would place myself was not yet decided. I set off just after 1pm, heading north from Derby towards the Humber. By this time there were already numerous showers around and some of these had already turned thundery around London and much further north towards the borders. I stuck to my original thoughts though and three hours later I was sat just to the south of the Humber near the town of Barton-upon-Humber. For the next hour my disappointment began to grow as there was very little thunderstorm activity around me, but to add to the frustration there were heavy showers close to home in Derby and these had started to show lightning. As I kept refreshing the radar I could see the showers were developing and then falling apart again... today looked like being a disappointment. All I use for internet on the go is my Nokia Lumia mobile, a 3 Network MiFi dongle and a Netweather Extra subscription – it's not an expensive set up. Around 5pm I noticed an area of showers to the west which were developing and showing signs of holding together. I then noticed the first lightning strike being detected and decided to head just a short distance south to intercept. I did not need to travel far but I was aware the showers were moving quickly and so I moved fast. Around half way between Barton-upon-Humber and Brigg I could see the dark clouds moving in with some very unstable looking clouds ahead of me. As I approached I saw my first flash of lightning to my west and so I came off the main road and found somewhere I could stop and observe away from the distracting sounds of a busy road. Upon finding a decent stopping point I found myself under a dark, billowing storm cloud with some flashes of lightning and growls of thunder being muffled slightly by the strong and gusting wind. Soon after arriving I saw a nice CG drop from the back end of the gust front which was moving over. I now decided to set up my camera looking at where most of the lightning was whilst I was able to sit in the dry of the car as the rain and wind moved in. I use a GoPro Hero 3+ camera which can be housed in a waterproof case. I also use an external microphone (bought separately) attached to the outside of the casing. As the storm moved over most of the lightning seemed to be within the clouds and the rain not particularly heavy but the winds were blasting the rain into my windscreen. It was as the rain began to die down that a few pea sized hailstones started dropping and there was a huge flash just behind me (and the camera) with instant ground shaking thunder. It appeared the storm had now moved so I switched my camera to a new position and as I was setting it up a nice bolt struck close in front with more very loud thunder. The storm was intensifying and I was treated to some nice lightning and thunder whilst a few more hailstones fell from the sky. The following are two captures of the same lightning strike After about 7 or 8 minutes of standing watching the storm I decided to get back in the car and chase. The storm was moving fast and I was never going to catch it but as I drove behind the storm it was clear the core had travelled just a quarter of a mile away from me as the ground was covered by hailstones, making the road icy, and there was a lot of spray and minor flooding. Driving at the rear of the storm I noticed a couple more flashes of lightning but it seemed the activity had began to die down once more. What was interesting was the fact my car thermometer was reading just 4c, some 10c drop from before the storm had come over. Soon after, the sun peeked out through the departing storm clouds and this allowed a gorgeous double rainbow to appear. I was able to stop and observe this rainbow against a black stormy back drop, listening to the sound of distant thunder rumbling away. After this storm moved on towards Grimsby I noticed on the radar that there were numerous thundery showers around and so I drove south through Lincolnshire, passing a couple of heavy showers with more hail. There was also a single CG from one of these as I was driving down the A15. Around an hour later as I was nearby to Coningsby I noticed a nice looking storm cloud with a lowering gust front at its front. This storm cloud looked very photogenic but never went on to produce thunder, although may have done before I found it. Even so, I parked up just ahead of it and watched it pass overhead. It did produce some gusty winds and hail as it passed directly overhead. By this time it was getting late in the day and the sun was setting on what ended up in being a good chase day. Just before it ended, the day had one more treat in store, and this was a beautiful sunset behind another heavy shower.
    3 points
  26. Will be starting out in Mulvane and early indications show a dryline play in Western Oklahoma with 6,000jkg of Cape on offer! Could be some huge hail and huge structure. Wellies have been bought, Hovercraft is ready and waiting and raincoats at the ready for a flooding great time out on the Plains! Wish us luck!
    2 points
  27. Some pleasing charts on offer today from the GFS if you are after something substantially calmer and warmer than recent weeks, alas such charts remain beyond the reliable timeframe and should be treated with caution. Indeed the reliable is for more of the same with a strong jet powering in low pressure from the NW, cool to boot with rain and showers and wind for all, nothing summery.. The reason I say be cautious is due to the forecasted power of the jet propelled by a cold pool of SST's to our NW. Don't be surprised to see the GFS backtrack from the ridge positioning itself to the NE and instead keep heights tentatively to our SW, far enough to keep us under the influence of a westerly drift - not necessarily cool, indeed probably a bit above average but cloudy with drizzly bits in the north. ECM is showing such a set up.
    2 points
  28. 2 points
  29. Just an observation but the fi ecm ops (not that I generally take too much notice of them beyond day 7) are becoming less keen on dropping the high Alaskan anomalies. Hence the ridge doesnt really get across us and the euro trough hangs on to our East. That may still leave us under the influence of the AH rather than the trough but it's higher risk than seems likely judging by the gfs and ens. Hopefully just ecm op being a bit stubborn but we do know how these ridges, once established, are tough to break down.
    2 points
  30. Care to explain why given the current output, And the GFS has a Westerly bias in low resolution you expect the UK to be in more Low Pressure dominated pattern ?
    2 points
  31. Before the settling down the GFS shows a pretty deep system sweep down from the N/W for the 1st day of Summer, With severe gales crossing Northern England. Aided by a strong Jet..
    2 points
  32. The models so far today are all showing a big change to warmer and settled conditions spreading from the south during the second half of next week onwards, this is now reinforced by another very encouraging met office update which continues to firm up on a warm anticyclonic outlook and also very warm and humid at times, especially in the south with a chance of thundery outbreaks pushing up from the continent.
    2 points
  33. Ridiculous charts! First major storm porn teaser of the year has appeared Notice how the 500hpa winds are straight up from the Pyrenees too. This would possibly rule out any NE escapement route from the UK over the usual places such as Belgium. This is as good a setup as you will ever see for some major storms in this country. We can only wish for a triumph of hope over experience I'm afraid though folks!! Nice to see nonetheless
    2 points
  34. The GFS 6z really hots up and becomes very humid during FI with temperatures into the low to mid 80's F as we import continental conditions into the UK with an airmass sourced from north Africa / Spain, there is a thundery breakdown and then the Azores high looks like it would start to build in again. The signs are increasingly good for a nationwide spell of warmth and high pressure from mid / late next week onwards.
    2 points
  35. The minimum today is 8.9C while maxima look like reaching close to 16C, so an increase to 11.1C is likely on tomorrows update. After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at: 11.1C to the 27th (11.0) 11.1C to the 28th (11.8] 11.1C to the 29th (10.2) 11.0C to the 30th (9.4) 11.0C to the 31st (9.3) 10.9C to 11.2C before corrections methinks, so 10.5C to 11.2C after.
    2 points
  36. Really liking the agreement with the models pointing towards a possible flaming June to kick start the summer. Still going to wait until the reliable timeframe however before I really ramp my hopes up! About time we saw a change from this cool, drab northwesterly that has plagued us all throughout May.
    2 points
  37. Great to see continued signs of an improvement in the longer term outlook, but the inescapable fact is we are still 8-9 days away from said change and there looks like being plenty of indifferent weather around during the interim. Once it's inside 144hrs I might start to get really interested, but until then I'm sticking with cautious optimism
    2 points
  38. ECM ens maintains this growing trend towards a more settled spell developing next week Precipitation charts show things turning a lot drier from mid next week, though some light rain could still be around in places Mean surface temperature on the up as well
    2 points
  39. Still good agreement on the 3rd/4th being the time when high pressure moves in, no coincidence that just prior to this we see the collapse of the Alaskan ridge which allows low heights to our north west to ease somewhat and the result in the Azores high becoming a more prominent feature. It looks like a UK/Scandinavia based high so an easterly drift will develop in the south quite quickly I guess as the Azores high and Russian ridges connect, the detail here is key in the conditions at the surface, it could be very warm/hot or it could be cloudier and cooler (especially in the east). Beyond this, the long rangers still point to a Scandi high/ Iberian low scenario keeps cropping up (CFS/ECM/Metoffice), this could produce an interesting scenario with a dominant weather type involving bands of thundery rain pushing up from the continent which I personally will admit is the type I like most during the summer Still a long way to go. ECM day 10 mean CFS week 3/4 ens anomaly
    2 points
  40. Here's a few years photo's to keep tour 3 excited
    2 points
  41. About to start sowing turnips in the field this week as feel nights are getting a bit warmer and frost risk lessening.Picked stones off field yesterday in a cool west wind and scattered showers fine day for the job. Cool , breezy and dull again today with light showers currently 8.5c
    2 points
  42. Was a fantastic day with a sting in the tail - Started with a magician at a gas station - briiiant supercells - large hail videos to post but will try and post photos.
    1 point
  43. I would realy love to see what the Met office are saying come too fruition . Yes they have a good track record ,and charts are showing high pressure come early June but low pressure at the end of this month and some rather wet and cool conditions also in the mix . Its the location of any high pressure which needs to fall into place so i am going to wait till we have some firmer agreement from our main models . Patern change possible but many twists and variations could happen ,so heres fingers crossed ,cheers all
    1 point
  44. From the album: Astronomy Album

    Some amazing Scenes on the Isle of Wight last night, as thick Fog completely covered the Valleys and coastal parts, we got a aboe the fog to capture the Moon, Jupiter and Venus above, this one is just with Jupiter as I wanted to get the fog in aswell
    1 point
  45. The Ecm 12z shows the change most of us are waiting for in just over a weeks time, the south is the first to improve and then gradually the fine and warmer weather starts to push north, the south of England would be heading for low to mid 20's celsius later next week.. so the pattern change is now within the ecm range. Let's hope we are on course for a complete change from relentless cool / unsettled Atlantic dross to much Warmer anticyclonic bliss.
    1 point
  46. From the album: Sunset Gallery

    Here you go guys, we had a very Intense sunset last night, I had no camera and didnt notice until late, so I sprinted to the Location I wanted to get too as I had this idea in my head, this was taken staight off my iPhone at the Sandown Boating Lake on the Isle of Wight
    1 point
  47. Think it's safe to conclude today was a bust
    1 point
  48. From the album: Mothership

    Lenticular cloud ..

    © Mokidugway

    1 point
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