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Showing content with the highest reputation on 12/05/15 in all areas

  1. JMA model also going off scale in Nino prediction: this is unusual for this agency, normally quite conservative in ensemble prediction. Updated outlook. http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/tcc/tcc/products/elnino/gif/c_ens_gr_oni.gif
    3 points
  2. 10.8c to the 11th 0.6c above the 61 to 90 average 0.1c above the 81 to 10 average
    3 points
  3. The GFS shows a cool/unsettled Pm flow for next week turning Northerly by weeks end. 'Extensive' Heights pushing up over Greenland towards the Arctic by the end of the run, Prolonging the cool/unsettled theme as Low Pressure anchors itself over the UK.
    2 points
  4. So the "could lead to harsh winter for Britain" was made up by the news team, as no scientist said anything of the sort... *sigh.
    2 points
  5. El Nino Could Lead To Harsh Winter For Britain A significant rise in water temperature in the Pacific Ocean is likely to have a major impact on the world's weather over the coming months, Australian experts have warned. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology said the eastern Pacific is in the early stages of a "substantial" El Nino event, the first in five years. The rising water temperature alters wind and rainfall patterns and is likely to lead to drought in Australia, drier conditions in Papua New Guinea and Indonesia, and floods on the Pacific coast of the Americas. It could also result in a harsh winter for the UK; during the last El Nino in 2009/10, Britain suffered heavy snowfall. David Jones, a climatologist at the Bureau, which has been on the look-out for the event, said: "This will be quite a substantial El Nino event. "This isn't a weak one, or a near miss as we saw last year." An El Nino starts when warm Pacific waters shift to the east and the trade winds that normally bring rain to Australia and Asia peter out. The Bureau expects the weather disruption to peak in the Southern Hemisphere's spring and early summer and last until February. It also said 2015 is now likely to be the warmest year on record, topping the highs of 2014. The scientists stressed that while an El Nino increases the likelihood of significant weather disruption, other factors could modify the effects. http://news.sky.com/story/1482534/el-nino-could-lead-to-harsh-winter-for-britain
    2 points
  6. Bureau of Meteorology in Australia (BOM) has now moved in line with the US agencies in declaring an El Nino to be in progress. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
    2 points
  7. An interesting snippet about the unusual going's on in the Pacific in today's NOAA forecast discussion. IT IS REASONABLE TO ASK WHETHER SUCH A PATTERN, GIVEN ITS APPARENTLY LOW-FREQUENCY NATURE, MIGHT BE RELATED TO THE ONGOING ENSO STATE IN THE PACIFIC. THIS WARM ENSO EVENT IS AMONG THE STRONGEST FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, AND SO ANY MIDLATITUDE TELECONNECTIONS WOULD BE EXPECTED TO MANIFEST THEMSELVES DURING SUCH AN EVENT. FOR A BACK OF THE ENVELOPE ATTRIBUTION, WE WILL CONSIDER THE COMPOSITE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANALOG FOR THE PAST WEEK'S OBSERVATIONS AS WELL AS FOR THE WEEK-2 OFFICIAL HEIGHT BLEND. BY LOOKING AT THE SST FOOTPRINTS OF THE TEN-YEAR COMPOSITES FOR EACH MAP, WE SEE THAT THEY ARE QUITE DIFFERENT, WITH THE OBSERVED PERIOD MORE CONSISTENT WITH EL NINO, BUT THE FORECAST PATTERN STRONGLY TILTED TOWARD LA NINA. THIS IS NOT ENTIRELY SURPRISING CONSIDERING THAT THE EL NINO CIRCULATION FOOTPRINT IS WEAKER DURING BOREAL SUMMER OVER THE PACIFIC-NORTH AMERICA REGION, AND SO VERY LITTLE WEEK-TO-WEEK VARIANCE IS LIKELY ATTRIBUTABLE TO THE ONGOING EVENT. Full discussion here: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html
    2 points
  8. Hi everyone, just booked up for T3 2016...nearly went in 2000...better late than never!
    1 point
  9. To settle arguments, here's the anomaly chart in question. Only blue shading I see starts at 150%
    1 point
  10. The blue shading on the anomaly chart at the bottom is above average ppn. Light blue is 150-300% of average on the legend. The other 2 charts show absolute values: http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html Norn Iron is below average which just goes to show how much ppn they normally get. Still 3 weeks till Summer even begins so nothing to be concerned about longer term.
    1 point
  11. Through week 2, looks like a w Russian ridge establishing in conjunction with the mid Atlantic fella. That's going to leave a trough I between. More than possible we will be stick under that. Spring likely to remain on hold for most of the UK though perhaps not overly unsettled.
    1 point
  12. A fairly static picture, azores high set to lock itself into an unfavourable position for anything particularly warm for the time of year anytime soon. Indeed a flow from between west and north looks like predominating with only subtle day to day changes. Temps average at best cooler than average in the north, but perhaps trending a bit above in the far SW for a time. Low pressure forecast to drop anchor from the NW again next week pulling in cool showery northwest airstream as we head towards bank holiday weekend. A changeable outlook then, nothing particularly wet on the horizon with the exception of Thursday which is forecast to be very wet in the south and notably cool. Set against April, this May is feeling very disappointing. Too much too soon...
    1 point
  13. Sadly we may well be in for a crop of 'sensationalist drivel' if nino does build into a strong event and drive global extremes...............
    1 point
  14. That's quite a modest statement for the Express. The headlines almost every year are for the worst winter on record and without anything to back it up. Maybe this time they have been reading into the actual science behind the set up and could be on to something.
    1 point
  15. http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/576712/Rare-weather-phenomenon-El-Nino-worst-winter-in-Britain-for-years Apparently Britain is going to experience its worst winter in years thanks to El nino
    1 point
  16. And at the rate things are going only one member (VIRTUALSPHERE) is currently in with a chance of winning unless the models change.
    1 point
  17. Watch this space, we might have a lamb to the slaughter!
    1 point
  18. I haven't really studied el nino much.. But what I do get from the charts being posted, is this will be one seriously strong El nino event.. We don't really know much what effects this does have on us here all the way over the other side of the planet.. But it does impact us. We know it has impacts closer to home. I think we should really really monitor this as a globe to see and research what happens. If previous events are anything to go by, winter 2015/16 could put some winters to shame
    1 point
  19. One of my colleagues said this morning, 'where the **** is spring, it's baltic still?!?!?' Have to say I agree - I'm still reaching automatically for my coat to go over three layers when stepping outside. This is north coast weather, not Moray Firth... I think the trees are about a month behind here and it's only 100m further north.
    1 point
  20. Yesterday, at 15.1C, is provisionally the warmest day of the year so far. A minimum today of 9.5C, while maxima look like reaching the mid 15s, so an increase to 11.0C is likely on tomorrows update, possibly the high point for the month. After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at: 10.9C to the 13th (10.3) 10.8C to the 14th (8.9) 10.7C to the 15th (9.7) 10.6C to the 16th (9.3) 10.5C to the 17th (9.0) 10.6C to the 18th (10.7) 10.4C to the 19th (8.5) 10.4C to the 20th (8.8] 10.3C to the 21st (8.4) A cool 7 to 10 days coming up, which could have the CET close to 1C below the 81-10 average going into the last 10 days, and 0.5C below the 61-90 average. At this early stage, a value below the 81-10 average is beginning to look slightly more likely than not, though it would only take a few warm days to turn things around.
    1 point
  21. The ensembles from ECM and GFS both showing high pressure to the south west and low pressure to the NE setting up a north westerly flow Pressure possibly rising slightly in the south & south west later next week if it did it would be here where it would be drier GFS ens is slightly different whilst we still have low pressure to the NE the high is influencing the south west more at first it but during Tuesday its likely it will back west Then by Thursday the high is shown to push back over parts of the UK this then takes us through the end of the week and through the BH weekend
    1 point
  22. Relatively benign conditions so far this month, yet IJIS has moved back to lowest on record. https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/vishop-extent.html?N I agree with Geordiesnow, conditions from the end of the week onward looking very mild across much of the Arctic. Of course, this may change (as it did so many times last year) but the potential is there for the first bout of very mild conditions of the summer. This is also the time of year that many believe are crucial to the melt season, when the first melt ponds begin to form. Wide spread melt ponding just in time for the sun to be at it's strongest will mean the Arctic absorbs a lot more energy. So that's another thing to keep an eye on.
    1 point
  23. It's close enough to warrant attention from astronomers but doesn't pose a serious threat of collision. It will pass at a distance of around 6,300,000 miles in two days - but it's virtually already at that distance as we speak, and the currently on its highest impact level. If it was headed for Earth we would certainly know about it already. I wouldn't worry. There have been asteroids very recently that have gotten far closer than that - as close as 70,000 miles. This asteroid is quite large so this is where the concern is originating from. In fact, in July, a larger asteroid will pass within 4,500,000 miles of Earth - I would be more concerned about that.
    1 point
  24. Is it worth going to Tescos? It would be nice if a system was in place to at least attempt to deflect something like this wouldn't it.
    1 point
  25. Yet I'm seeing weather patterns that looks like we could be heading into favorable melt with a potential dipole setting up and what strikes me so far this month is just how warm the landmasses are already. I mean 3 places with sea ice cover are looking likely to warm up, that is Beaufort, Kara and Hudson Bay. Beaufort looks the most concerning too me, potentially unfavorable wind direction, warmth and sunshine and the ice there is looking rather fragile with open water already appearing here, I would not be surprised too see a large polynya appearing here, just like in 2012, conditions look awful here to say the least in the forseeable future although as we know weather patterns can change. Recent models runs have shown the warmth backing away from Kara but there is no escape of some warm uppers arriving here at least for a short while and its perhaps not that unusual too see Hudson Bay getting a few warm spells mixed in with colder shots afterwards. The current set ups reminds me of 2011 which saw a massive warm spell coming in from Alaska and by the end of the month, all the landmasses were well above average with very little polar air on the landmasses, this is going to be a big test for the ice I feel and I can see potentially a record low for this month as things stand.
    1 point
  26. post 173 I made yesterday re the anomalies and the probable weather and today suggests there is no change in that idea of a coolish and rather unsettled spell in the 5-12 day period with perhaps less so for the far SW.
    1 point
  27. ECM this evening shows pressure rising during Friday and this stays through the weekend though northern and western Scotland remains at risk of some rain / showers By early next week (Monday, Tuesday) things turn cooler especially in the north and the risk of some rain / showers can't be ruled out anywhere Then pressure gradually builds by day 9 and 10 settling things down and temperatures generally around average
    1 point
  28. http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html The drying trend continues.
    1 point
  29. GFS still going for an unsettled start to next week however for the 2nd half of the pressure begins to rise cutting off the cooler winds and allowing temperatures to rise with the south having highs towards the high teens UKMO is still going for a rise in pressure during Friday and this lasts through the weekend with only the far of Scotland at some of some rain / showers
    1 point
  30. Who'd have thunk it? There *is* an amplification of trends in the tropical troposphere… http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/10/5/054007/article …
    1 point
  31. Sure it's higher resolution, but it's also been smoothed and only goes up to 1995. You can read it in the paper yourself if you like, or close your eyes and shout that it's not real. Up to you. I'm getting the feeling that this could be one of those situations where proxy data is evil because it doesn't show what you want (unlike when you use it to show the MWP or the LIA)?
    1 point
  32. Come off it, recent data has far greater resolution than an estimate (based on what) for centuries ago. I can hardly believe anyone takes that imaginative graph at face value
    1 point
  33. Smoothing is just smoothing. Any large and prolonged deviations will still be apparent, as can be seen with recent data, which is also smoothed. It's also interesting to note that the graph only goes up to 1995. So, what is it you think is going on, MIA? Spell out the conspiracy theory, which you believe these scientists are engaged in, for the benefit of us naive folk.
    1 point
  34. The way things are going I don't think we're going to exceed 20C at all here this month - which has never happened before. Thursday has a high of 9C forecast which is ridiculous for mid-May. Truly one of the worst May's in my lifetime. The last good April/bad May combo was 2003 so that gives hope to the superstitious/pattern matching people on here. May is supposed to be our sunniest month of the year and the second driest but it's already the wettest by the country margin with over 50mm in the first 10 days. We have had 3 days over 10mm with one day having 25mm. Words fail me.
    1 point
  35. I'm not going to base it on a funded bias report , perhaps if it mentioned multi year ice is up+ volume would be start it 'remembers' min extent.
    1 point
  36. April - Hobart, Tasmania A very dry and cool mid-autumn month. It was the coolest April since 2006 and is now the second month in a row to be anomalously cool ( 1981-2010 ). This is the first double monthly cool spell since the start of 2011 - with most months since then being on the warm side. Hardly any rain fell this month, just 12mm, the driest April since 2002. Average maximum: 16.7 ( -1.1 ) Average minimum: 8.9 ( -0.5 ) Rainfall: 12mm ( average 53mm ) Rain days ( +1mm ): 6/from 13 High pressure centred just to the west for most of the time saw a persistent cool southerly airflow. Often cloudy, the wind coming in almost directly onshore. Occasional weak fronts bringing just a shower and a follow up light shower or two. On the 19th a significant pool of cold air behind a front offered hope of a pre-season but brief wintry outbreak - but airmass was too dry to bring the promised mountain snowfall. However overnight temperatures plummeted - giving many locations away from the coast a sub-zero temperature. For many places it was the coldest April night for many years. Extremes in daily temperature for April ( Records since 1882 ): Highest maximum: 25.2...1st ( Record 31.0 in 2014 ) Lowest maximum: 13.4...25th ( Record 7.7 in 1967 ) Highest minimum: 12.9...18th ( Record 18.6 in 1959 ) Lowest minimum: 3.4...20th ( Record 0.7 in 1888 )
    1 point
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