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The Gfs 12z shows very warm weather in the south later next week and mid may looks more settled and generally warmer with high pressure building in...Looking good.

Really belted it down with snow and chuncks of ice a few hours ago, was driving to hyde, massive flash of lightening huge boom then all alarms going off in hyde, bank machines out of order.... Alarms still going off as i left back to glossop... Snow on the hills above... Pretty looking bleaklow and kinder....

A brief look at the latest EC32 update By the 5th May the anomaly still showing trough orientated SE over Scandinavia and the main trough south in the eastern Atlantic. Thus the UK still in the cyclonic regime with lows popping along from the SW bringing periods of unsettled weather with temps about average. But the next couple of days marks a pattern change with the trough to the NE dissipating and the Atlantic trough edging west with a build up of heights over Scandinavia and to the SW. So by the 12th we have the LP banished off of NE Canada and HP influencing the eastern Atlantic with temps still around average. This evolution continues and by the 20th the anomaly has ridging eastern Atlantic to Iceland but there is a weak trough Scandinavia so although in general the HP is in control on the surface the HP is centred just to the west so cooler northerlies with temps below average. By the 29th the weak upper trough to NE is no more but the HP is too far to the SW to indicate significant height build up UK and the east. Temps still around average. Summary. The UK should see the pattern change around the 8th from unsettled south westerlies to a much more stable regime with ridging from the Azores, interrupted briefly with weak troughing to the NE and the endof the run is a bit vague with the HP sliding SW but no obvious sign of cyclonic activity. The temps are generally around average for the run and perhaps a bit below for a time. So no obvious sign of any great heat but could well be quite a pleasant May.

Taking a closer look at the BH weekend on the Gfs 12z, Saturday starts fine and cold with a widespread frost away from the south but after a sunny start, clouds thicken and SEly winds strengthen and persistent rain spreads north and east, however, it stays fine for a while further east and north, winds increase to Gale force in the northwest of the UK. The rain clears north on Saturday night with Sunday looking brighter with sunny spells but heavy and thundery showers developing, becoming pleasantly warm in the south and east. BH Monday looks a drier day for the south and east with fewer showers and longer sunny spells with temps around 60F, most of the unsettled weather across the northwest. Another few unsettled days with cooler Atlantic air but later next week becomes drier, brighter and warmer in the south, staying cooler and unsettled in the north, then signs of high pressure becoming more dominant through mid may.

ECM anomaly charts showing a drier settled spell developing from around May 11th, temps back down to around average after a warm wet start Charts WSI euro weather

The Gfs 6z ends on a high note, it would be nice to think we could look forward to an increasingly warm and settled spell from mid may wouldn't it? In the meantime, the BH weekend indicates a warmer feel than currently, low to mid 60's F with sunny spells / showers, the warmer air pushing up from the south behind a band of heavy rain sweeping north across the UK on Saturday night / sunday followed by sunshine and thundery showers. Through next week it could become more settled for a short time but generally it still looks unsettled with sunshine and showers and a risk of heavy / thundery rain but at least temperatures recover from the end of this week onwards and rather warm at times through the outlook.

Snow covered peak of Ingleborough at the moment. Driving around the Trough of Bowland today house hunting. Nice but cold.

Think I'll wait for Craig's guess....just for guidance purposes ☀

Nice to see pressure starting to lower up north later on in ECM's run the low to the SE at d10 would bring the risk of rain here but the high is edging up closer from the SW GFS has hinted at an improving picture around the 9th on and off for a few days now and its got it again ECM looks better as well GFS has the high coming in as early as d9 on this run and that takes us through to mid may at least Temperatures much more seasonal with it

Both the Ecm & Gfs 12z show more of a tropical maritime influence in just over a weeks time so daytime temperatures would be more in the 16-19c range, much more pleasant. Even though I'm a coldie I don't want an unseasonably cold May.

Madness here. Was cutting the grass earlier in a t-shirt. Now coming on 1/2 a cm of snaw with almost palm sized flakes. It's all Sturgeon's fault. You've been warned. --- EDIT And guess who had his full on summer tyres fitted last week. Aye.

Almost the coldest night of the 2014/15 season here in Crail @ -2.2c. Coldest reading all winter was -2.6c which puts it in perspective.

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82960-may-2015-cet-forecasts/?p=3191963 That's Craig's new name

9.5c to the 27th 1.7c above the 61 to 90 average 1.2c above the 81 to 10 average

Well im very happy that my 700th post is going to be a snow one! :cold: Had a brilliant snow shower about 30 mins ago, proper big flakes. What a treat. Shortens the time I have to wait until next winter to see more haha. Couple of pics below but they havent come out great, it looked better than this lol:

Most of the night was dry with long clear periods but there were one or two light snow showers during the early morning as decaying showers made their way across the hills to the west. Currently it's dry, sunny and breezy with snow showers falling to the north, around Eyam and Tideswell by the look of it. At 0800 g.m.t Temp: 4.6c 24 hr max: 10.1c 24 hr min: 0.6c Grass min: -2.3c Rainfall in 24 hrs ending 0800 g.m.t: Trace Mean wind speed: 22 mph W 3 oktas Cu Vis: 20 km Distant showers

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON TUESDAY APRIL 28TH 2015. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A cold and unstable Westerly flow will blow across the UK today. Tonight and tomorrow will see a trough of Low pressure crossing East across Britain tonight and at first tomorrow. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Unsettled and changeable with bright spells and showers or rain, heavy and wintry on hills in the North at first. Becoming less cold and possibly drier later especially towards the South and East. THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream is focused to blow on a much more Southerly track than usual for the vast majority of the run before slowly returning North across the UK at the end of the period http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational this morning shows the rather cold conditions remaining in place this week with a mix of sunshine and showers. A ridge crossing East towards the weekend could give rise to a sharp frost on Friday night before troughs moving slowly up from the SW over the Bank Holiday weekend should introduce milder air into the South which through the remainder of the run gradually extends to many other areas with time. The changeable conditions will likely continue with a slow inprovement in conditions from the South as pressure builds and the end of the period looks fine and settled on this morning's run with sunny spells and temperatures above average. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run ends up in the same place with regard to fine and settled weather two weeks from now with the passage of time getting there showing a mix of changeable conditions with rain at times for all gradually being replaced by less unsettled and less cool conditions towards the end of the second week though the time this run takes to get to the High pressure area is rather more traumatic and hindered.. THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today show a 60%/40% split in favour of High pressure lying somewhere over or close to the UK in two weeks time with fine and dry conditions dominant. This is a turnaround from yesterday morning and with only 40% of members showing the chance of Low pressure over the UK in two weeks time. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO this morning shows Low pressure sitting out to the West of the UK by the end of the Bank Holiday weekend with a marked trough across Central Britain. Southern areas could become somewhat less cold as winds switch SW while the North stays cold and raw at times in an East wind with all areas seeing outbreaks of rain and showers. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The theme of the Fax charts this week shows a widening of isobars as we move towards the weekend with the cold and showery Westerly breeze dying down as a weak ridge crosses East on Friday. The Weekend is shown to be more unsettled from the SW as milder Atlantic winds behind active troughs move slowly NE across Southern and Western parts by Sunday. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120. GEM GEM this morning looks mostly quite changeable through the 10 day spell quite closely following the UKMO theme of events. So a cold and showery period for the next few days dies away in preference to steadily less chilly conditions and Southerly winds moving North across the UK early next week but with the weather remaining quite changeable with rain at times in association with Low pressure close by to the West or over the UK towards the end of next week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM shows a similar theme as the majority of the rest of the ouput with a change from cool and showery West or NW winds to milder South or SE winds by early next week, the milder air following a trough North across the UK at the weekend with next week continuing to see some unsettled weather at times with rain in places at times and temperatures nearer to average. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif. ECM ECM this morning shows the main theme of the period as becoming less cold next week and though still rather unsettled with Low pressure to the West and NW for much of the time some dry and brighter intervals will increasingly develop as pressue gently rises from the South later with temperatures closer to average. Having said all that Low pressure is shown to deepen to the SE at Day 10 thwarting any lengthy improvent here. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN(12z) The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night loosely follows it's operational route in gradually shifting the emhasis of Low pressure out into the Atlantic with pressure rising gently to the SE bringing milder winds up from the South later in the period. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends this morning show a slow transition towards less chilly conditions as winds source from a point SW or South of the UK rather than from a polar or Arctic source with this Bank Holiday weekend the pivotal point. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.4 pts followed by UKM at 96.8 pts and GFS at 96.1. At 5 days ECM leads UKMO with 88.4 over UKMO's 88.1 pts with GFS at 85.5. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 61.8 pts over GFS's 59.1 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 44.9 pts over GFS at 43.6. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig MY THOUGHTS The chilly and unsettled weather introduced at the weekend has some time to run before something rather less chilly but still changeable arrives by the start of next week. The showery theme currently upheld for most will be aggravated by a trough of Low pressure sinking SE across the UK tonight with rain and squally winds followed by a further few days of chilly and potentially showery conditions especially on Thursday. A ridge of High pressure could give rise to another unwanted frost over Friday night but the SW may escape as thick cloud and rain moves gently NE across these areas at the weekend, gradually extending North. Ahead of the troughs the weather will still be chilly but milder air will be introduced across the South and this looks like extending North to all areas next week. With Low pressure the driving force most likely positioned to the West or NW of Britain all areas remain at risk from rain at times next week before a gentle rise of pressure from the South or SE looks like drying things up and warming things up further in the second week. There are some variations between outputs on how this pattern evolves but there is some common ground that the UK will lie under much drier and warmer weather in two weeks time with a strong chance that High pressure will being a period of fine and bright weather with temperatures near to or above average and we may finally then lose the chance of any damaging night frosts. So all in all not all bad news this morning as the current chilly and still in places wintry feeling air mass we have experienced this week and in the next few days will be hopefully this Winter seasons last hurrah and we can settle into something much more May like with time. Next update from 08:00 Wednesday April 29th 2015

Long way off but the second week of May is starting to show hints of some kind of southerly plume developing. This reflected in the GFS and GEM outputs this morning. GEM Ens giving the hint too. Still plenty of near normal and unsettled members still. Last nights ECM was showing something quite similar in its attempt to build a ridge just east of the UK to introduce a much warmer flow. As I said at the start, a long way to go to have any hope of this coming off with the likelihood that the unsettled regime will come off over this. In the nearer term, it still looks cool and unsettled until Friday, then Friday and Saturday look fairly dry but still cool. A front will run north east Saturday night (it could be earlier or later at this point) which will see a warm up during the second half of the bank holiday weekend.

Anthropogenic contribution to global occurrence of heavy-precipitation and high-temperature extremes http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2617.html commentary: http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2640.html …

Firstly, reef said he had an air frost in May. Secondly, Hedon is nowhere near the Midlands, it's near the coast!

Only a few days after Sydney copped the wildest storm of the century, an impressive hailstorm in the city late Saturday. Temperature range of 14-26, then a maximum of 17 on Sunday.

Plenty of big anvils were about earlier on bringing heavy hail/sleet showers to Glasgow at teatime. When heading to EK at 8pm just to the east of me I could see another huge Cumulonimbus cloud with the hail coming out it. There was some Thunder from it aswell.

Heavy sleet shower just passed through after wet snow showers throughout this afternoon. Should turn back to snow as we go through the night. Currently 2.9c with dewpoint 1.8c. Remarkable weather over the last couple of days for this time of year.

Even stranger to see it today at sea level in Paisley where it almost never snows and at the end of April after a heatwave. I'm back home now and there is some spits coming down just now with lots of big whispy top clouds looming about. My brother reported heavy snow in Greenock earlier. I think port snow shield is in full op but lets see what happens later, maybe get a wee shower or 2. Heating back on as well as toes getting numb and it's well cold outside.

Very cold and clear currently 0.5c grass already very crunchy any new cut grass willl burn tonight. Ice forming on the puddles Last snow shower of winter 14/15? Photo shows it moving away to the NE about an hour ago.

Was just about to write the same. Its quite surreal to watch snow showers this afternoon coming down the Cawdor hills towards us from the SW at the end of April.

When it does arrive in 50 years time, we will still probably just get sleet out of it.

15.0C thanks

10.2C for me please.

GFS giving hints again of something warmer and more settled developing around the 10th Northern Scotland looks prone to some unsettled weather still at times before the high covers all of the UK later on

Yes it looks like the approaching low pressure will come with a sector of very mild air. So despite the BH weekend becoming increasingly unsettled there may be some drier brighter and warmer interludes to enjoy as well.

@WSI_EuroEnergy Risk of warmer temperatures across NW/mainland Europe early next week as per GFS op, ECM op cold outlier

That's what I thought here too but the grass and cars are covered after some monster snowflakes.

a wee surprise to see wet flakes of snow in Glasgow at this time of year wee poem Cold blast returns Winter coats pushed to back Summer shorts rained from dust Lingering thoughts of walks In sunset warm evenings Smiling at the spring blacksmith Forging the colours and life vivid Then a drop of rain A gust of northern wind The clouds chased to London Dragging polar air down The rain turns colder A huddled picnic Left to the birds Winter having one last laugh A reminder there is no control The sun takes a week off The cold and grey spreads Meanders across the weekend Plans scuppered for indoor dates

Wonder if the precip will hold to tonight when it might have a chance of lying plus more snow? Snowing here again! P.S. Why is this snow as the precip seems to be swinging in from the SW?

Unexpected wee sleet flurry earlier this morning, and not a warm day by any stretch. Clear and cold now.

A reminder winter can quickly bite back in Scotland at this time of year. A major switcharound event, some parts of the Highlands basked in maxes approaching 70f on Wednesday whilst today struggled to get above 1 degree! A notably late snowfall. Here we managed a very light hail shower today and nothing else.

Some nice photos from todays snowfall guys cant believe its only 8 weeks until the longest day then we start creeping back towards winter

A few photos from few miles inland where there is between 2 and 4 inches

Aberdeen at 6.50pm Thanks Ravelin & Gogoslo

Indeed this is probably the best snow event of the winter for me! Very unexpected.

Big chunky flakes now! Tremendous. Richard , go to "more reply options" and upload a photo

Well the snow from earlier melted pretty sharpish once it stopped. Then it came back again with a vengeance. Temp now 0.9/LL.L. About as good as I've seen it here all winter.

And here is the proof.The horsechestnut coming into leaf and garden as yet not fully sown out

Half crown flakes in old money settling and getting white now 1c .What a switch round,cattle all sitting on fresh straw smiling watching snow fall .Maybe be the old farmer knew something

I was wrong, the snow is now lying on the grass, fences etc. Actually it now thicker than those pictures show but it seems to be getting brighter out.

A9 just outside Inverness

From 23'C degrees earlier this week to 1'C and snow - the Highlands in spring!

A bit of rain overnight has been replaced with bright blue arctic skies with fantastic visibilities and a peppering of snow showers to the north in their true winter colours of grey and yellow clouds. Currently 3c with a fresh cap of snow on the Cawdor hills down to about 1200 feet. If the sky looks as wintry as it does today then the next two days may be quite exceptional for the time of year. Cows and calves still in at night although they did not want to come in on the last two warm days but we will have no problems tonight. Young Mr. Norththernlights took home a load of silage bales from a neighbouring farm last night and there is more concentrate feed on the way in case we have to keep the cattle in till May

Erm......