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Showing content with the highest reputation on 28/04/15 in all areas

  1. 4 points
    A brief look at the latest EC32 update By the 5th May the anomaly still showing trough orientated SE over Scandinavia and the main trough south in the eastern Atlantic. Thus the UK still in the cyclonic regime with lows popping along from the SW bringing periods of unsettled weather with temps about average. But the next couple of days marks a pattern change with the trough to the NE dissipating and the Atlantic trough edging west with a build up of heights over Scandinavia and to the SW. So by the 12th we have the LP banished off of NE Canada and HP influencing the eastern Atlantic with temps still around average. This evolution continues and by the 20th the anomaly has ridging eastern Atlantic to Iceland but there is a weak trough Scandinavia so although in general the HP is in control on the surface the HP is centred just to the west so cooler northerlies with temps below average. By the 29th the weak upper trough to NE is no more but the HP is too far to the SW to indicate significant height build up UK and the east. Temps still around average. Summary. The UK should see the pattern change around the 8th from unsettled south westerlies to a much more stable regime with ridging from the Azores, interrupted briefly with weak troughing to the NE and the endof the run is a bit vague with the HP sliding SW but no obvious sign of cyclonic activity. The temps are generally around average for the run and perhaps a bit below for a time. So no obvious sign of any great heat but could well be quite a pleasant May.
  2. 2 points
    Nice to see pressure starting to lower up north later on in ECM's run the low to the SE at d10 would bring the risk of rain here but the high is edging up closer from the SW GFS has hinted at an improving picture around the 9th on and off for a few days now and its got it again ECM looks better as well GFS has the high coming in as early as d9 on this run and that takes us through to mid may at least Temperatures much more seasonal with it
  3. 2 points
    Both the Ecm & Gfs 12z show more of a tropical maritime influence in just over a weeks time so daytime temperatures would be more in the 16-19c range, much more pleasant. Even though I'm a coldie I don't want an unseasonably cold May.
  4. 2 points
    Madness here. Was cutting the grass earlier in a t-shirt. Now coming on 1/2 a cm of snaw with almost palm sized flakes. It's all Sturgeon's fault. You've been warned. --- EDIT And guess who had his full on summer tyres fitted last week. Aye.
  5. 2 points
    Almost the coldest night of the 2014/15 season here in Crail @ -2.2c. Coldest reading all winter was -2.6c which puts it in perspective.
  6. 1 point
    Finally looks the weather is beginning to liven up across the Plains, after a rather late start this Spring, given the dominance of cold and dry arctic airmasses that have pushed right down to the Gulf for much of the last few months preventing warmth and moisture from moving north. A slight risk for later across Ern Oklahoma, NW Arkansas and SW/central Missouri. NE Oklahoma - SW Missouri looks the sweet spot. Large hail the main threat today SBCAPE and SLP/precip 00z Weds DL and LL shear + helicity 00z Weds Day 1 outlook: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html Enhanced Risk of severe weather over Oklahoma tomorrow, some big hailer (2 inches+) indicated. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html
  7. 1 point
    Well im very happy that my 700th post is going to be a snow one! :cold: Had a brilliant snow shower about 30 mins ago, proper big flakes. What a treat. Shortens the time I have to wait until next winter to see more haha. Couple of pics below but they havent come out great, it looked better than this lol:
  8. 1 point
    HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON TUESDAY APRIL 28TH 2015. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A cold and unstable Westerly flow will blow across the UK today. Tonight and tomorrow will see a trough of Low pressure crossing East across Britain tonight and at first tomorrow. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Unsettled and changeable with bright spells and showers or rain, heavy and wintry on hills in the North at first. Becoming less cold and possibly drier later especially towards the South and East. THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream is focused to blow on a much more Southerly track than usual for the vast majority of the run before slowly returning North across the UK at the end of the period http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational this morning shows the rather cold conditions remaining in place this week with a mix of sunshine and showers. A ridge crossing East towards the weekend could give rise to a sharp frost on Friday night before troughs moving slowly up from the SW over the Bank Holiday weekend should introduce milder air into the South which through the remainder of the run gradually extends to many other areas with time. The changeable conditions will likely continue with a slow inprovement in conditions from the South as pressure builds and the end of the period looks fine and settled on this morning's run with sunny spells and temperatures above average. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run ends up in the same place with regard to fine and settled weather two weeks from now with the passage of time getting there showing a mix of changeable conditions with rain at times for all gradually being replaced by less unsettled and less cool conditions towards the end of the second week though the time this run takes to get to the High pressure area is rather more traumatic and hindered.. THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today show a 60%/40% split in favour of High pressure lying somewhere over or close to the UK in two weeks time with fine and dry conditions dominant. This is a turnaround from yesterday morning and with only 40% of members showing the chance of Low pressure over the UK in two weeks time. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO this morning shows Low pressure sitting out to the West of the UK by the end of the Bank Holiday weekend with a marked trough across Central Britain. Southern areas could become somewhat less cold as winds switch SW while the North stays cold and raw at times in an East wind with all areas seeing outbreaks of rain and showers. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The theme of the Fax charts this week shows a widening of isobars as we move towards the weekend with the cold and showery Westerly breeze dying down as a weak ridge crosses East on Friday. The Weekend is shown to be more unsettled from the SW as milder Atlantic winds behind active troughs move slowly NE across Southern and Western parts by Sunday. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120. GEM GEM this morning looks mostly quite changeable through the 10 day spell quite closely following the UKMO theme of events. So a cold and showery period for the next few days dies away in preference to steadily less chilly conditions and Southerly winds moving North across the UK early next week but with the weather remaining quite changeable with rain at times in association with Low pressure close by to the West or over the UK towards the end of next week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM shows a similar theme as the majority of the rest of the ouput with a change from cool and showery West or NW winds to milder South or SE winds by early next week, the milder air following a trough North across the UK at the weekend with next week continuing to see some unsettled weather at times with rain in places at times and temperatures nearer to average. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif. ECM ECM this morning shows the main theme of the period as becoming less cold next week and though still rather unsettled with Low pressure to the West and NW for much of the time some dry and brighter intervals will increasingly develop as pressue gently rises from the South later with temperatures closer to average. Having said all that Low pressure is shown to deepen to the SE at Day 10 thwarting any lengthy improvent here. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN(12z) The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night loosely follows it's operational route in gradually shifting the emhasis of Low pressure out into the Atlantic with pressure rising gently to the SE bringing milder winds up from the South later in the period. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends this morning show a slow transition towards less chilly conditions as winds source from a point SW or South of the UK rather than from a polar or Arctic source with this Bank Holiday weekend the pivotal point. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.4 pts followed by UKM at 96.8 pts and GFS at 96.1. At 5 days ECM leads UKMO with 88.4 over UKMO's 88.1 pts with GFS at 85.5. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 61.8 pts over GFS's 59.1 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 44.9 pts over GFS at 43.6. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig MY THOUGHTS The chilly and unsettled weather introduced at the weekend has some time to run before something rather less chilly but still changeable arrives by the start of next week. The showery theme currently upheld for most will be aggravated by a trough of Low pressure sinking SE across the UK tonight with rain and squally winds followed by a further few days of chilly and potentially showery conditions especially on Thursday. A ridge of High pressure could give rise to another unwanted frost over Friday night but the SW may escape as thick cloud and rain moves gently NE across these areas at the weekend, gradually extending North. Ahead of the troughs the weather will still be chilly but milder air will be introduced across the South and this looks like extending North to all areas next week. With Low pressure the driving force most likely positioned to the West or NW of Britain all areas remain at risk from rain at times next week before a gentle rise of pressure from the South or SE looks like drying things up and warming things up further in the second week. There are some variations between outputs on how this pattern evolves but there is some common ground that the UK will lie under much drier and warmer weather in two weeks time with a strong chance that High pressure will being a period of fine and bright weather with temperatures near to or above average and we may finally then lose the chance of any damaging night frosts. So all in all not all bad news this morning as the current chilly and still in places wintry feeling air mass we have experienced this week and in the next few days will be hopefully this Winter seasons last hurrah and we can settle into something much more May like with time. Next update from 08:00 Wednesday April 29th 2015
  9. 1 point
    Anthropogenic contribution to global occurrence of heavy-precipitation and high-temperature extremes http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2617.html commentary: http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2640.html …
  10. 1 point
    Only a few days after Sydney copped the wildest storm of the century, an impressive hailstorm in the city late Saturday. Temperature range of 14-26, then a maximum of 17 on Sunday.
  11. 1 point
    Heavy sleet shower just passed through after wet snow showers throughout this afternoon. Should turn back to snow as we go through the night. Currently 2.9c with dewpoint 1.8c. Remarkable weather over the last couple of days for this time of year.
  12. 1 point
    Was just about to write the same. Its quite surreal to watch snow showers this afternoon coming down the Cawdor hills towards us from the SW at the end of April.
  13. 1 point
    When it does arrive in 50 years time, we will still probably just get sleet out of it.
  14. 1 point
  15. 1 point
  16. 1 point
    GFS giving hints again of something warmer and more settled developing around the 10th Northern Scotland looks prone to some unsettled weather still at times before the high covers all of the UK later on
  17. 1 point
    Yes it looks like the approaching low pressure will come with a sector of very mild air. So despite the BH weekend becoming increasingly unsettled there may be some drier brighter and warmer interludes to enjoy as well.
  18. 1 point
    Wonder if the precip will hold to tonight when it might have a chance of lying plus more snow? Snowing here again! P.S. Why is this snow as the precip seems to be swinging in from the SW?
  19. 1 point
    It has been the story of the year in our location so far. All four months have had below average minima but average or above average maxima due to lots of dry, sunny weather. We're on 187 hours so far compared to the 1981-2010 for the entire month of 155hrs. Its been a very sunny December - April period really, with all five months well above average: Dec 2014: 91hrs (175%) Jan 2015: 91hrs (160%) Feb 2015: 105hrs (131%) Mar 2015: 133hrs (119%) Apr 2015: 187hrs (121%) so far
  20. 1 point
    Unexpected wee sleet flurry earlier this morning, and not a warm day by any stretch. Clear and cold now.
  21. 1 point
    A few photos from few miles inland where there is between 2 and 4 inches
  22. 1 point
    Aberdeen at 6.50pm Thanks Ravelin & Gogoslo
  23. 1 point
    Indeed this is probably the best snow event of the winter for me! Very unexpected.
  24. 1 point
    A9 just outside Inverness
  25. 1 point
    Some neat photos from the links as well http://www.weather.com/sports-recreation/news/northern-lights-climbers
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