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Evening folks. The models show a decent breakdown by the end of the week with low pressure in control with just about every type of weather you could hope for!!! Gfs , shows a cold shot of air across the nation late weekend , so with unstable air across the nation, cold air aloft and strong sunshine that equals for tall clouds to form and the recipe for some thunderstorms to develop along with some photogenic skies , That's not happened very much this month, So the good news April Showers are back , some big ones, Heres hoping!!!

A somewhat 'out of season' post... However, just been looking at this April and just how dry and generally anticyclonic it has been and I can't help but think, or at least put 2 and 2 together, to come to the conclusion that the quite abrupt end to the stratospheric vortex this year has indeed helped to produce a generally more blocked pattern into April. Clearly April and May can be months of extremes and can be two very difficult months to forecast given the transition away from winter and into spring. However, the reluctance for any unsettled conditions to become established this month is quite noteworthy and again many areas are experiencing a particularly dry month and again a quick reanalysis through 1st April to present day shows a particularly anticyclonic month but of which is likely to come to a rather abrupt end later this week and beyond. Be interesting to see where we go from here. April update of the EC Seasonal and EUROSIP seasonal models, both of which did a decent job on winter, produce a rather interesting and unfavourable pattern for a good summer in that a -ve NAO pattern is signaled for the summer months with a +ve pressure anom to the north and north-west of the UK, which, overall, will signal a generally blocked regime but with the block being in completely the wrong place. There is little evidence that supports a more pronounced Azores high this summer and again the pattern is for more northern blocking, which, as we found out a few years ago, is not a good setup for summer! Time will tell as ever...see you all in October. Regards, Matt.

The Gfs 12z turns into an unseasonably cold run for the time of year and also much more unsettled than we have got used to, a pattern change is on the way. Friday is the transition day with a band of rain spreading north and east. Saturday shows a risk of heavy, thundery showers but temperatures still look respectable in the south of the UK, cooler further north, colder by Sunday but the south of the uk looks drier and brighter but then through next week it looks very unsettled and chilly everywhere with a polar/arctic maritime airflow bringing sunshine and frequent showers, some wintry with hail and thunder, and bouts of heavy rain and strong winds with snow on northern hills, daytime maxima on some days struggling to reach double digits celsius in the south and lower than that further north. There would also be a high risk of damaging frosts for gardeners and growers if something like this run verified, snow in early may on this run.

Not at all - unlike the chopping and changing of the 6-hourly GFS output or 12-hourly output of the others, the NAO index has been showing a consistent swing towards negative since around Easter when I made mention of it. The significant aspect of the pattern change is the first significant negative NAO for many months and while that can manifest itself synoptically in a number of ways, it usually means LP to the SW and HP to the NW because that's where and how the pressure anomalies are measured. The signal for a reversal of the "normal" pattern has been solid for nearly three weeks. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.mrf.obs.gif Just going negative now for the first time since the turn of the year. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif Not much change with the lowest index recordings later this month and a noticeable recovery back to neutrality at the beginning of May so this doesn't look like a long-duration shift at this time. http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015042012/gfsnh-0-90.png?12 There you go... The push of HP south from Greenland re-creates the Azores HP and returns the anomaly to neutrality as pressure falls away over Greenland as shown: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015042012/gfsnh-0-198.png?12 ECM shows a west-based negative NAO for the end of the week: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015042012/ECH1-96.GIF?20-0 So not too bad over the British Isles. The problem is as the heights rise again to the south-west, the LP is dragged down from the north in the unstable air so we get this interesting one: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015042012/ECH1-216.GIF?20-0 Really interesting synoptic period approaching whatever the surface conditions after a frankly anodyne period.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON MONDAY APRIL 20TH 2015. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure will lie across Northern Britain with slack winds across all areas. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry, settled and occasionally warm weather across the UK at first before becoming much more unsettled with rain and showers at times later especially in the North. THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet flow remains weak and locataed well to the North of the UK. The flow rejuvenates later this week with the main arm developing to the South and then over the UK through next week gradually turning NW to SE across Britain later in Week 2. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational this morning shows High pressure in control of the UK weather for the next few days before it declines by Friday as Low pressure moves up from the SW deepening to the North of the UK by the start of next week. The resultant windier and more changeable conditions will be well established by the end of the weekend leaving next week changeable for all with further rain or showers but some drier conditions too at times especially in the South. Late in the run a cold and unsettled Northerly or NW flow maintains the unpleasant conditions for many. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run also shows unsettled and cooler weather arriving in time for the weekend with rain and showers at times. The largely unsettled spell then looks like being maintained for the rest of the period though with some drier spells in the South for a time mid run. THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS clusters show a 50% split this morning between options of High pressure over the UK in 14 days time and Low pressure delivering unsettled and at times wet conditions. Due to this choice of options being so evenly spread no confidence can be given to any clustering this morning. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO shows High pressure declining away by Friday with a daisy chain of Low pressure stretching from the SW approaches to the North of Scotland next weekend delivering showery rain for many. The final frame shows the trough clearing to the East with slowly improving conditions to SW Britain by the end of the weekend. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts continue to show High pressure in control over the UK through much of this week before a complex trough system moves slowly NE across the UK from Friday with showery rain at times by then. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120. GEM GEM this morning shows High pressure in control across Britain until Friday when pressure falls from both the SW and North arriving as a complex Low pressure system close to the North and later East of Britain through the latter stages of next weekend and next week. Pressure is also shown to ridge strongly North across the Atlantic at that time. The net result will be cool and sometimes windy weather under a NW airflow with rain or showers, wintry on Northern hills next week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM also shows a shift to cool and showery weather through the weekend and beginning of next week as winds settle to blow from between NW and North. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif. ECM ECM today shows falling pressure too from the SW and NW by the weekend with a weekend of showery rain at times for many. A drier interlude is then likely across Southern Britain early next week as High pressure builds towards Northern France but maintained unsettled weather in Westerly winds across the North are then shown to extend to all areas later next week with rain and showers in blustery West winds for all in avearge temperatures by then. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN(12z) The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night looks likely to bring the UK largely cyclonic conditions later next week with Low pressure to the North affecting all areas in Westerly winds with rain at times and near to average temperatures for the time of year. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends this morning remain focused towards a much more unsettled spell developing from later next week with Low pressure much more influential for all. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.5 pts followed by UKM at 96.9 pts and GFS at 96.2. At 5 days ECM continues to lead the field at 89.0 pts over UKMO at 88.3 pts and GFS at 86.1. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 62.9 pts over GFS's 57.9 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 44.4 pts over GFS at 41.9. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig MY THOUGHTS The trend towards a more unsettled and possibly cool period is still very much alive this morning probably commencing from later on Thursday. The change will be a complex and unstructured affair with some places likely to see very little rain while others see rather more as much of the rain falls in showers which by nature are always hit and miss. Whichever way I look at it this morning there seems to be good agreement for Low pressure to lie up to the North of the UK early next week with cool and showery West or NW winds across Britain bringing further rain and showers. However, some Southern areas may remain largely fine for a time early next week as pressure to the South rises temporarily before we all settle down to a spell of Westerly winds with rain and showers with as ususal the heaviest rain and strongest breezes likely over the North and West. There are a few cold Northerly incursions in the mix too for later next week though this hasn't got universal support least of all from ECM who maintain milder Westerly winds across Britain. So enjoy the fine weather of the next few days as the downhill slide in conditions commences from late Thursday. Having said all that the weather looks far from a washout and looks nothing other than a traditional mid Spring unsettled spell when some welcome rainfall is coupled with drier and brighter days with some sunshine in strong Westerly winds at times. Next update from 08:00 Tuesday April 21st 2015

Indeed I wasn't here in 1975. Key point is that unlike some will try and make us believe, this isn't the trend to a rubbish summer.

Some great charts showing up now for action weather fans like myself. Its a huge turn around coming up after a fairly non descript few weeks. Will be interesting to see just how cool/cold a northerly flow will be. The GFS 12z is actualy fairly well supported within the ensembles, it isnt an outlier or extreme solution: Temps just 5 or 6c on the 28th here for South Yorkshire, amazing really. After that then struggling to get into double figures for the rest of the run! Its as if we get transported to another planet on the 24th, from flat line to big rain spikes:

True enough especially on the 8-14 which almost always has a tendency even when following the 6-10 of 'watering' down its version. The 6-10 neither has any mid Atlantic ridge but a very marked trough with the 500mb flow (for northern areas) from Greenland and for southern areas a much longer sea track, via a trough off the eastern US seaboard from the Alaska region). All in all heights for the far south are suggested at about 550dm, so not warm and probably quite chilly especially for northern parts. Well that is my summary of how they have developed this scenario over the past 4-6 days. By this time next week we will all know how cold and how wet and how far down any mountain/hillside it is white! http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

For a while the GEFs was hinting at a ridge nearer the UK but at the moment it's given up on that idea and at T240 we still in a quite cold airmass. Chart weatherbell

The Gfs 6z shows rain spreading northeastwards across the UK during friday and the weekend looks cool and unsettled, cold enough for wintry showers on hills in scotland, for many of us it's a sunshine and showers weekend, some heavy with a risk of thunder. The chilly unsettled spell continues for the first half of next week but the showers gradually die out with more in the way of sunshine but with cold frosty nights but the second half of next week looks better with higher pressure and good spells of sunshine with daytime temps recovering to pleasantly warm levels, however, the 6z then shows another low swinging down from the northwest with a cold blast in its wake bringing a return of chilly, showery weather, the showers wintry on hills and further night frosts.

Knocker .... A little bit alarmist don't you think? 30 Meters of sea level rise caused by Antarctica in the forseeeable ! I think it just as likely we will have an Ice age by the time that happens. I suppose we must expect more of this bs before the Paris Conference. He clearly is after his share of the spoils. Also no mention of the recent discovery of the ice being much thicker than was anticipated and extending downwards much deeper under the ocean. Definately no menton of the Australian cruise down there a couple of years back. MIA

The last sets of anomaly charts support lower than usual temperatures and fairly unsettled as well although the 8-15 does, as it usually does, tend to modify this a little. Details of how cold, how unsettled will come as the T+00 gets closer from the synoptic models. links to anomalies http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814day.03.gif http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Or you could argue the pressure distribution produces the NAO. Cart and horse?

Lovely weekend albeit it a bit cool. Was in London most of the week, and saw 25C in Guildford, proper taps aff weather, then fly back to this Thursday night.... Spent today up at Auchengarrich, clouded over a wee bit mid afternoon, but still a nice day, temp about 13C, now wall to wall blue.

CET May averages and other statistics 21.2 ... warmest daily mean (29th, 1780) Warmest months 1. 15.1 (1833) ... by a large margin the most decisive (1.2 deg) of the twelve warmest months 2. 13.9 (1848) 3. 13.8 (1788, 1758) 5. 13.7 (1808) 6. 13.6 (1992, 1727) Averages 12.2 ... 2014 CET 12.1 ... 12.0 ... 11.9 ... 2001-2014 average 11.7 ... 1981-2010 average, 2012 CET 11.6 ... 11.5 ... 11.4 ... 1901-2000 average 11.3 ... 1971-2000 average, 1701-1800 average 11.2 ... 1961-1990 average, 1659-2014 average of all data 11.1 ... 1801-1900 average 11.0 ... 10.7 ... 1659-1700 average 10.4 ... 2013 CET Coldest Months 9.1 ... 1996 tied 13th coldest with two other years, the coldest in recent years) 8.9 ... 1879, 1885, 1902 tied 5th coldest 8.8 ... 1855 was 4th coldest 8.7 ... 1817 was 3rd coldest 8.6 ... 1740 was 2nd coldest 8.5 ... 1698 was coldest 3.5 .... mean for 3-5 May, 1877 2.9 .... coldest daily mean (8th, 1861) ___________________________________ Post your May CET forecasts before end of day 30th of April 30 to avoid time penalty, or in first three days of May with increasing late penalties.

1975 I've heard by many was a terrific summer, infact ranking as one of the best. 1976 just stole the limelight I guess! In my lifetime, I seem to remember the good summers often came after diabolical weather in April or May. I'm sure 2006 was a good example.

Some welcome rain for the gardens from the end of this week though for large parts of England and Wales totals don't exceed 20mm (out to day 10 the furthest this chart goes) the exceptions to this are western parts and northern England The next thing we'll be hearing is talk about droughts......

You werent around in 1975 then... 3 months, all spring, of recurring northerlies or northerly sourced air.

Perhaps a last gasp of Winter in the next week or so. Although why anyone would wish for cold and wet,I don't know. But definitely something here that would concern the gardeners . AND HC Id consider protecting those plums😜

Ok Then... Why did he mention it ?. Oh, I see, you do not think it was put in the paper for effect then, you think it is realistic!!?? Why else would he put it there? So you do not think the figure was included to scare people, with Paris coming up?? 'The Australian sector of the Antarctic continent (about 40% of the total) has the potential to raise the sea level by 30 meters.' 'A further area of substantial instability has been found which increases the chances of substantial sea level rise in the future'.. These are not the statement of an unbiased scientific researcher, before any scientific work has started. My point is that there is as much potential for the next ice age to occur in the foreseeable as his prediction of future widespread inundations from Antarctic sea ice. So why not explain your view so that we can all debate and you can proudly proclaim you were right. Or is he talking about 500 - 1000 years time? MIA Edit Barry - Just seen your post, why do you think he came up with the number !

WSI's forecast for May and into summer WSI Europe: April Pattern to Persist into May Summer to be Cool/Wet Across Western and Southern Europe April 20, 2015 WSI (Weather Services International) expects below-normal temperatures in the UK and western Europe for the May-July period, with above-normal temperatures continuing across Scandinavia and eastern Europe. A wet and windy period is expected across western Europe as well, with dry and calmer conditions setting up across eastern Europe, western Russia, and Scandinavia. According to WSI Chief Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford,“We have had a bit of a pattern change in April relative to previous months. The semi-permanent low pressure in western Europe has been replaced by mild high pressure, while the northerly winds to the east of the high pressure has resulted in a relatively cool month across parts of eastern and southeastern Europe. The latest data suggests this pattern will rule the day again in May. However, as we head into summer, we continue to expect the pattern to reverse again with a generally cool and wet summer expected across parts of western/southern Europe. Meanwhile, a warm and dry summer is expected across Scandinavia, eastern/southeastern Europe, and western Russia.†In May, WSI forecasts: Nordic Region* – Warmer than normal UK* – Cooler than normal Northern Mainland* – Cooler than normal west, warmer east Southern Mainland* – Cooler than normal, except Iberia In June, WSI forecasts: Nordic Region – Warmer than normal UK – Cooler than normal Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal east, cooler west Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal east, cooler west In July, WSI forecasts: Nordic Region – Warmer than normal UK – Cooler than normal Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal east, cooler than normal west Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal east, cooler than normal west http://www.wsi.com/news/scheduled-forecasts/wsi-europe-april-pattern-to-persist-into-may

I've also put some grass seed down in places at an attempt to patch up bare bit but in that respect the lack of rain is getting annoying. It really is pretty dry around here at the moment, even bits of the dog walk in the woods that usually manage to remain pretty muddy through dry spells have dried solid. A continuation of the dry winter for the NE. Saturday was by far the best day of the weekend here. Started off cool but warmed up as the day progressed. I went out for a cycle late morning and it was warm at times, cool at others, depending on the combination of exposure to the sun and the breeze. Stood watching the kids footy in the afternoon though I'd to strip off a layer as I was getting too warm, first time for a while for that. Sunday started out cloudy, with a light smirr of drizzle, which lasted into the afternoon. Not unpleasant overall once the drizzle disappeared but noticeably cooler than Saturday. Later in the afternoon the sun even managed to break through in patches, but still not t-shirt weather as I continued my quest to try to knock the garden into shape. So far I've got some veg seeds successfully germinating in one of my two small 4-tier-greenhouses but not risked anything 'outdoors' yet. With the weather forecast for it to cool down again rather than warm up I think I'll have to work out what else I can start off under cover for now.

Thanks for all your posts of the various charts etc Frosty. Do you think Saturday/Sunday will have a slack LOW over the country with sunny starts then showers developing by lunch time? Or a more active LOW including bouts of wet/windy conditions?

Update for the week to April 18th The current 5 day mean is on 14,019,200km2 while the 1 day extent is at 13,972,000km2. The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -623,070km2, a decrease from -859,810km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -183,400km2, a decrease from -311,870km2 last week. We're currently 5th lowest on record, down from 3rd lowest last week. The average daily change over the last 7 days was -6.3k/day, compared to the long term average of -40.0k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -24.5k/day. The average long term change over the next week is -36.3k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -27.4k/day. The loss so far this April was the 4th smallest on record. To achieve the largest monthly drop, a daily loss of at least 113.1k/day is required, while the smallest drop requires less than 30.3k/day and an average drop requires 66.5k/day.

Day 6 charts GFS Cyclonic and cool with showers or longer spells of rain UKMO Cool and showery PM flow, a weak ridge of high pressure looks set to move in with a trough developing in the Eastern Atlantic. ECM Deeper trough through the UK, so similar surface conditions in terms of rainfall, but possibly a tad cooler with showers wintry over modest levels in the north. GEM Cyclonic north westerly, the model proceeds to bring a fairly prolonged cooler spell with high pressure building strongly in the Atlantic. Still some uncertainty about how things develop beyond the coming weekend, though there are a few less cold runs starting to appear now. All of them do show a lot less settled conditions compared to what we have experienced for most of April so far.

A few changes from ECM this morning by day 8 with a drier interlude for the south with a ridge of high pressure edging up from the south Day 9 and 10 see unsettled weather returning but temperatures by this time would be recovering as we gain more of a westerly flow

The unsettled cool/cold theme continues this morning from around the 24th.

Yeah, it's a bit early for fishing but I reckon this May might deliver a Salmon(d) Very true, unfortunately we don't live by the Mediterranean so I can't see it happening. Outdoor activities will be severely effected by the predicted inclement weather

I'll take issue with your poor May... especially if it's called Teresa Think I'd take a good start to the summer every time. Then a better second half too. Edit: certainly looks like going tits up later in the week. Decisions, decisions, what to plant out, and when.

In terms of the Bering sea, in the last few weeks, its been the longest period with winds coming from the Arctic with some cold air hence melting here has barely changed. In terms of the Barents sea, all depends on wind direction really, wind direction will be turning Northerly again which may increase extent slightly but looks like will result ice exiting through the fram stright. BFTV mentioned this on Neven's forum and it does look like a west based NAO will happen so it will be interesting how this will affect the ice thicknesses, it will help to shift some of that thicker ice away from Beaufort but with milder air, it could also fragment it and we may also start seeing open water appearing here like we did in 2008/12 especially if this set up persists or we getting persistent off shore winds in this area.

I wish it would happen too Chris, and looking at the GEFS 12z mean, it certainly looks like becoming colder and very unsettled with a polar maritime and even the chance of an Arctic maritime flow, so it looks like very interesting model watching with a pattern change on the way.

The upcoming pattern change has been well signalled by the NAO for some time and the fall back to neutrality has now begun: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.mrf.obs.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif Certain to go negative and very sharply so in the next week to ten days with the index going as low as -2 before a recovery of sorts (a few members keep it strongly negative) back to neutrality at the very best by the turn of the month. http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015041912/gfsnh-0-150.png?12 And there's the kind of chart this produces - note the heights to the NW of Greenland and the LP near the Azores powering the negative pressure anomaly.

Yes Frosty, was a fun run to look at. I wish it would happen just for the weather stories, but highly unlikely of course: Having said that the GEFS are quite strongly in favour of at least a week of sub zero 850s and below average temperatures, with even the mean hitting -5 for a few days in my patch of the woods for example. Interesting times ahead hopefully

Midweek (29th April) is even colder with snow in the south, even the southeast, quite amazing. Beyond that, although temperatures start to recover, it stays very unsettled into early may. This is an exceptional gfs run, anything like this occurring will give us plenty to talk about and hopefully increase the numbers in the forum.

The Gfs 12z shows a return to winter for Scotland next weekend with a risk of snow showers, the cold blast then sweeps south to the rest of the UK on the 27/28th with a risk of wintry showers even in the south, what a huge shock to the system this would be for southern England with the recent 25c temps, this would be quite something and certainly not boring..lol

I hope it sorts itself out for the May Bank holiday weekend as im going camping. Come on Azores high get your act together!

Ugh, the outlook is dirge. How anyone can look forward to such atrocious weather is beyond me. Would have been okay in January but it's far too late to be of any use now.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON SUNDAY APRIL 19TH 2015. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure will lie across Northern Britain with a weak trough moving West later today across Central Britain. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry, settled and occasionally warm weather across the UK at first before becoming much more unsettled with rain and showers at times later. THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The main Northern arm of the Jet Stream remains well North of the UK over the coming week before the two arms North and South of Britain move closer togenther across the UK later under a much more mobile undulating pattern through week 2. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational this morning shows High pressure in control of the UK weather for the next 4-5 days as it's centre remains over the North of the UK bringing much fine and dry weather with the chill wind in the South decreasing. Pressure falls late in the week and a much more changeable, windy and often cool pattern develops thereafter with rain at times and temperatures on the cool side of average. things are shown to dry up a little from the SW late in the run. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run also shows a slow transition to more unsettled weather after the working week and though day to day differences are prominent synoptically between this run and the operational the message is the same. So after another 5 days or so of dry weather much more unsettled and changeable weather with strong and cool winds and rain at times look the order of the Week 2 period for all areas. THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS clusters continue to indicate a strong chance of an Atlantic mobile flow in two weeks time with High pressure well away to the SW with varying degrees of Low pressure affecting the UK under predominently Westerly winds. Only 10% of the group show High pressure beung maintained over the UK at the two week point. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO shows High pressure gradually dissolving away to leave a much more unsettled look to the weather across Britain by next weekend with Low pressure gradually taking control from the West http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts continue to show High pressure in control over the UK all the way out to 120hrs weakening somewhat later but not quick enough for much in the way of rainfall to affect any parts of the UK within the 120hr time span. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120. GEM GEM today shows High pressure too across the UK this week with fine and settled weather for all. It then shows a steady transition to cloudy and windier weather with falling pressure and rain at times under Westerly winds towards the start of the second week, this affecting all areas but not to a great degree across the South as High pressure clings on to the South.. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM also shows Low pressure deepening as it moves NE from a position to the SW of the British Isles to a point North of Scotland with troughs swinging East and SW or West winds strengthening towards next weekend with some rain for all by then. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif. ECM ECM today shows a similar pattern to the West as cloud, wind and rain replace the dry weather of the coming working week. As low pressure develops it eventually is shown to lie East of the Uk to bring all areas cold and windy and showery conditions with the threat of wintry showers over Northern hills in particular.. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN(12z) The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows cyclonic conditions with Low pressure up to the north or NE of Britain with fresh and cold winds bringing rain and showers to all at times. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends this morning remain focused towards a much more unsettled spell developing from later next week with Low pressure much more influential for all. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.5 pts followed by UKM at 97.0 pts and GFS at 96.2. At 5 days ECM continues to lead the field at 89.5 pts over UKMO at 88.8 pts and GFS at 86.6. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 64.0 pts over GFS's 59.0 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 45.5 pts over GFS at 42.6. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig MY THOUGHTS There seems firm agreement now from all models that a change is on the way to all areas of the UK by next weekend as High pressure across northern Britain for much of this week is planned to decline and become replace by Low pressure and stronger winds. We still have another 4-5 days after today of reasonable and sometimes very pleasant weather to come if you an keep out of a chill wind across the South and variable often large amounts of cloud near the East coast at times. Some warm sunshine will affect all parts at times through the week. Then it looks like Friday or Saturday could be a transition day towards cloudier weather with rain filtering in from the West, developing further as Low pressure develops over or to the North of the UK with stronger winds as a result. It then looks like this change could last some time with the threat that cold North or NW winds could deliver some unseasonably cold air down over Britain ala ECM and bring wintry showers to some parts. Whatever the outcome things will feel very different to what we have become accustomed to of late with sunshine amounts much lower and rainfall amounts rescuing an almost bone dry April for some parts. The period of change is just coming into the reliable timeframe so expect models to start firming up on the details that the unsettled spell will bring the UK over the coming days and continue to enjoy the fine and dry working week to come before any change takes place. Next update from 08:00 Monday April 20th 2015

I believe I believe I believe lol

Sub-polar jet stream meanders northward again in this region of the world. After a low level snow event in New Zealand last week, a significant cold outbreak is about to hit south-east Australia. The cold push from the south looks terrific on the latest satellite picture. Light snow forecast to 500m in Tasmania, 900m in Victoria, 1200m in New South Wales. Snow settling at this level in south-east Tasmania during April is rare - I only remember one occasion in the last 25 years. Snow pictures tomorrow if there's anything appealing to show. ------ With colder air penetrating across the country, the Sydney Morning Herald reports The longer-term outlook for the rest of April suggests the cooler conditions may settle in. Canadian models indicate most of Australia will see some of the world's most abnormally cool weather for any and region during the last week of April (see below): This is such a rare scenario to see.

Is that what you think? How about, if it is, otherwise my apologies for misreading your post, take a look at the very interesting, if you want cold, on the last 24-36 hours of synoptic charts and the output from the 3 main anomaly charts over a similar period. A really interesting model clash as to what we may have 9-10 days down the line?

And to keep the 'cold' kettle going see the NOAA output below> Somewhat different to the charts of 2 days ago and just maybe the synoptic models had something. http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php As I keep saying, interesting chart watching and comparisons as we count down to what is now 216h. http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php And hardly anyone around to watch this really interesting model see saw-sad I think, when it has the potential to be as dramatic, cold wise, as anything that created so many pages of hype in the winter.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif Spectacular collapse in the NAO into next week suggesting a real pattern change after several months of relative stability. http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015041712/gfsnh-0-144.png?12 And there's your evidence with a classic NAO negative pattern but will this become a west-based negative pattern http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015041712/gfsnh-0-384.png?12 Well, not really. The jet trends south so nothing very summer or even spring-like after the current spell as we go into the last third of April. http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2015041712/gem-0-156.png?12 GEM shows the southerly jet and hints at west-based NAO development perhaps a shade more than GFS http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2015041712/gemnh-0-192.png?12 Yet the new Greenland/Canada block looks oriented to keep the cold air spilling South and South-West into the Atlantic. Very interesting and different synoptics from what we've had for some time.

Probably because in winter, the current pattern would not enable people to go outside and enjoy the pleasant warmth. Today is 13C, partly cloudy, with a buzz of life - butterflies, bees, birds. The trees are blooming, with many trees already fully green, and gardens bursting with life. Temperatures will rise over the next week, up to 20C possibly. It's just a different feel entirely to winter. We are seeing life emerge, rather than die.

Thank god Catch, I'm so fed up with the late cold springs these last few years. I can see why people retire to the sun when they older, this is dragging me down. I haven't even looked at the garden yet, just canny be assed at all. Maybe some nice warm sun will work wonders. Just in the process of packing the cat's bags, she's being kicked oot. Woke up to a fieldmouse running round the kitchen and furface snoring beside me on my pillow

Quite a dramatic final warming of the stratosphere this year shown nicely when looking at the temperature and wind anomalies for the end of March. temps... wind... Just look at that rise in temperature at 30 mb over the pole!

RIP polar vortex 2014-2015!

Maxed at 16C.