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And to keep the 'cold' kettle going see the NOAA output below> Somewhat different to the charts of 2 days ago and just maybe the synoptic models had something. http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php As I keep saying, interesting chart watching and comparisons as we count down to what is now 216h. http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php And hardly anyone around to watch this really interesting model see saw-sad I think, when it has the potential to be as dramatic, cold wise, as anything that created so many pages of hype in the winter.

Well both GFS and ECMWF show something not too different from the 240h chart of a couple of days ago, so maybe not a direct northerly blast but a colder shot being shown by both around 192h. This now being supported by the NOAA 6-10 last evening. If this turns out close to the mark it will be, I think, the 2nd time since last autumn that one of the synoptic models has led the way to a marked pattern change. Highly unusual that. Of course it may not happen but it is now about a 40% compared to less than 10% 48 hours ago.

the reason there is less interest is because it potentially delivers weather which doesn't benefit anybody. Like it or not, that's a fact. Cold and wet? no thanks. I think the outlook looks fairly horrifying - setting up for a very cold, wet (relatively - it won't actually be "cold" IMBY) spell which could extend and deliver the usual appalling May. Nothing to cheer. The only twinkle of light i can think of is that if it was January it wouldn't verify because a shortwave would appear at t+84 which scuppers the whole thing. Any "cold" is still in FI for the south so it will change but to be honest i'm resigned to an extended unsettled and poor spell, however long it lasts. It actually reminds me a bit of the end of march 2012 where high pressure retrogressed and then basically destroyed the rest of the summer.

Evening all Well the 24th now counting down like clockwork in the models, its good to see the interesting charts making their way forward. Looks like we'll get some weather by the end of next week: ECM, GFS and now UKMO also in range: The unsettled theme is then maintained on both the ECM and GFS right to the end of their respective runs: Also they both show a strong PM blast towards the 28th so feeling chilly in the NW winds and showers if it verifies:

Maybe not Gibby, But for this change now showing across the Models to a cooler more unsettled spell towards Months end, The GFS was the first to pick the signals up. Granted it has been dropped and picked back up many times. So for that alone my hat is raised.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON SATURDAY APRIL 18TH 2015. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure will lie across Northern Britain with a strong and cold Easterly flow across the extreme South. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry, settled and occasionally warm weather across the UK at first before becoming much more unsettled with rain and showers at times later. THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The main Northern arm of the Jet Stream remains well North of the UK over the coming week before weakening and being replaced by a stronger Southern arm, the West to East axis of which will be moving North over the UK in week 2 strengthening as it does so. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational this morning shows High pressure in control of the UK weather for the next week or so before declining towards next weekend as pressure falls from the West leading the UK into a more unsettled and eventually mobile Atlantic airstream with Low pressure to the North pushing troughs East across all areas at times delivering rain and showers and average temperatures. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run also shows a slow transition to more unsettled weather after the next week with more emphasis on colder and stronger North winds for a time with showers or rain with the unsettled and often rather chilly weather for all areas under predominantly NW winds continuing then until the end of the run. THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS clusters show a predominance of Low pressure in control of the weather over the UK in two weeks with just a 10% group indicating High pressure near or over the UK. The rest show winds largely from between West and North with varying degrees of unsettled weatehr and from some members rather cold Northerly winds. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO shows High pressure gradually dissolving away to leave a slack pressure gradient across the UK later next week. It will stay largely dry through the period with some sunshine and the fresh and chilly wind across the South of the UK is shown to gradually die away. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts continue to show High pressure in control over the UK all the way out to 120hrs positioned in a far from ideal place though up to the North and NW. A resultant cold and chilly feed from the North Sea will continue to mask otherwise warm and sunny weather with chilly breezes from the North or NE with more cloud cover at times especially across the South and East. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120. GEM GEM today shows High pressure too across the UK next week with fine and settled weather for all. It then shows a steady transition to cloudy and windier weather with falling pressure and rain at times under Westerly winds towards the start of the second week, this affecting all areas. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM too feeds Low pressure slowly in from the West next weekend with rain spreaading slowly East across the UK with temperatures close to average levels for late April. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif. ECM ECM today continues to predict a change in the weather in a week's time as it too develops Low pressure around or near the UK with cyclonic winds delivering rain or showers at times in sometimes strong and blustery winds. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN(12z) The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night maintains the cyclonic feel with a likelihood of Low pressure to the North of the UK with a cyclonic Westerly flow likely in 10 days with rain at times. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends this morning remain focused towards a much more unsettled spell developing from later next week with Low pressure much more influential for all. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.6 pts followed by UKM at 97.0 pts and GFS at 96.3. At 5 days ECM continues to lead the field at 89.0 pts over UKMO at 89.0 pts and GFS at 86.9. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 65.4 pts over GFS's 59.6 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 46.1 pts over GFS at 43.6. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig MY THOUGHTS The models remain focused on fine weather across the UK for another week with High pressure close to the North, strong early in the week but declining later on allowing the chilly NE or East feed across the South to eventually die out and make things feel rather warmer than currently here. Cold air will be bottled well North of the UK early in the week but as High pressure declines and builds over Greenland some of this cold air will be pushed South into the Atlantic ot even towards the North of the UK. As this then engages with the more seasonal air across the UK and Europe developing cyclogenesis will occur with the parent Low from this predicted to lie somewhere either just to the West, over or just to the North of the UK. This will bring much windier and changeable conditions across the UK, probably over next weekend and then lasting through week 2 as the pattern sets into a more traditional High to the South and Low to the North pattern with rain or showers at times in blustery Westerly winds. Positioning of individual Low pressure features could alter of course over model outputs in the coming days which could bear influence of extent and depth of the change expected but with a couple of days now of models highlighting this change it has a fairly good chance of verifying. So in a nutshell if you can get out of the cold wind across the South and the cloudy and showery blip for some Eastern parts tomorrow let's enjoy what remains of the fine and dry weather in the coming week because it maybe that next week this time things will look far more disturbed across the UK. Next update from 08:00 Sunday April 19th 2015

Hi folks, the slippery slope is about to happen , but the good news it wont happen for another five days at least....The ecm and gfs show a major breakdown in our weather cold wet and windy weather looks likely from thereon . After all, you cant expect sparkling sunshine to last forever in the Beautiful British countryside.

Some pretty ugly charts showing up in the long term. Time for change though.

Today's update June Height anomaly Rainfall Temperature Unsettled month with above average rainfall. With heights to the east of the UK, this could offer some warmer weather at times, but generally near normal temperatures. July Height anomaly Rainfall Temperature A fine and settled month with high pressure close to the UK, temperatures above normal everywhere and rainfall below normal. A good summer month if this came off. August Height anomaly Rainfall Temperature In August high pressure still is the dominant force but placed further east. Temperatures above or even well above average. Rainfall is mixed which would suggest thundery outbreaks are possible at times. Overall on this update summer would start slow but would have a dry and sunny July with warm temperatures followed by a very warm or even hot and humid August with thundery showers at times. Would bank that.

Slightly off the topic of the week 2 trends, here is another one of those cold pools which decides to just plague our weather. Note the shortwave over Scandinavia Now lets follow its progress of irritation (it brings low cloud and drizzle in from the east). Monday Over the UK Tuesday West of Scotland Wednesday Eastern Scotland Thursday Eastern England Friday Over South east England, now as a distinct area of low pressure. Not only does this bring cloudier conditions for many, but also facilitates a quicker breakdown than was currently predicted a day or so back. This cold pool's journey does not mean fun for the UK unfortunately. Moving on......

I will remind readers that GFS has not led in any verification Stats since I started putting them within my reports three months ago so any credit towards them over ECM is ill founded I'm afraid.

And as far as I can see this cooler spell may be but a transient interlude as the ext. period has the Azores HP reasserting itself. Best not to get ahead of ourselves though.

Sub-polar jet stream meanders northward again in this region of the world. After a low level snow event in New Zealand last week, a significant cold outbreak is about to hit south-east Australia. The cold push from the south looks terrific on the latest satellite picture. Light snow forecast to 500m in Tasmania, 900m in Victoria, 1200m in New South Wales. Snow settling at this level in south-east Tasmania during April is rare - I only remember one occasion in the last 25 years. Snow pictures tomorrow if there's anything appealing to show. ------ With colder air penetrating across the country, the Sydney Morning Herald reports The longer-term outlook for the rest of April suggests the cooler conditions may settle in. Canadian models indicate most of Australia will see some of the world's most abnormally cool weather for any and region during the last week of April (see below): This is such a rare scenario to see.

Just a reminder that your fellow skeptic posted the Potsdam Institute's summary of their own paper, not me. I was merely pointing out that the accompanying 'spin' was, not only unnecessary, but inaccurate. Just to add the summary seemed quite clear and non contradictory to me.

Many sightings of Aurora last night over Scotland. Oban/Stornoway/And the Village of Gress... As Kp levels reached 6 and continue pretty hight this morning.

I do like a fresh Northerly right from the poles Good air quality, no humidity, cool nights - if people like mild slumber in Winter why not vice versa?

Wall-to-wall sun all day on the BI but damned cold too in the wind. The haar threatened to come in for a while this afternoon but didn't get further up than the golf course thankfully. Bud burst on the trees is here

Lake District resplendent today in sparkling unbroken sunshine with not a jot of wispy cloud to be seen from dawn break - not often you can say that round here.. Light winds and max of about 16 degrees felt very pleasant indeed. Superb clarity, excellent visibility. This is a wonderful time of year here, indeed we are firmly entering perhaps the best 2 month period of the year in the Lakes. Spring growth now properly kicking in everything about to turn a shade of fresh green, and it is relatively quiet before the summer hoardes, hazy misty sticky days set in. (Late Oct-early Nov also a very special time, and any time Dec-Feb when cloaked in snow...). Tomorrow won't be anywhere near as good, a stronger wind, much more cloud and threat of drizzle.

The Gfs 12z is a colder run through week 2 compared to 6z with mainly NWly winds (Pm airmass) and some wintry ppn, at least for northern hills and a higher risk of night frosts. In the meantime, although tomorrow will be much cooler and cloudier in the east with scattered showers, the trend next week is for warmer and sunnier conditions, especially the 2nd half of next week which shows a spell of very pleasant weather before a gradual change to unsettled conditions, lol it's so quiet in here I'm probably just talking to myself...

The Gfs 6z shows a good week coming up with high pressure in control, temperatures slowly recover, becoming pleasantly warm, especially during the second half of next week, the weather turns more unsettled by Friday but temperatures stay respectable in the south of the UK, rather cooler further north. The further outlook shows changeable weather with some dry, warm and sunny weather but with showers and longer spells of rain too, especially in the north, coolest in the north with the south having temps around average but sometimes warmer.

Hopefully a pattern change, we really need the rain now especially the southeast, followed by a dry cold northerly which wouldn't be too bad.

9.6c to the 17th 2.4c above the 61 to 90 average 1.8c above the 81 to 10 average

It has had one previous success, not good on memory but if I could find time it would show in the huge data files I keep for every day for the 500mb anomaly charts. Somewhere in this past winter GFS did beat these charts, and other models, in predicting a marked change in upper air pattern. So whilst I agree with your comments in the main Gibby there are exceptions, this MIGHT be another one along with ECMWF synoptic outputs. We have to wait 8-9 days to see if they each had the 240h prediction 2 days ago correct.

Take a read of Johns excellent post, As this is not normally the case.

A dry and mainly clear night with a moderate E breeze. Mainly sunny so far this morning with the cool breeze persisting. At 0900 g.m.t Temp: 7.6c 24 hr max: 10.5c 24 hr min: 2.5c Grass min: 0.2c Rainfall in 24 hrs ending 0900 g.m.t: 0.0 mm Mean wind speed: 17 mph E 2 oktas Cu humilis Vis: 75 km.

It has four runs a day and forecasts out to T384.....would be fairly useless if it wasn't the first to pick the signals up?

Lovely sunny morning but cold hope it warms up a bit later

Some lovely Aurora last night over Scotland again, Not mine.. But this image was taken near North Berwick looking out towards the Bass Rock.

ECMWF shows a Northerly flow after flopping the idea last night. Yes agree there Knock, Where this will lead to is still unknown as you say. Will it be a pattern change, Or just a blip... A very interesting period for model watching. Hats off to the GFS

Yeah, the BBC had my location averaging around 6.5C for the first 5 days or so of April, this was in late March. It probably is the biggest "pick 'em" month of the year; it's the first that can see genuine warmth on a consistent basis, yet it's also capable of wintry weather on occasion, and even sustained cool/cold weather. It's that time of the year when summer starts to throw out the first jabs, but winter can still land an uppercut.

The ECM 12z has high pressure slipping back south again throughout next week which should help to cut off the cool easterly that many are going to experience this weekend. Its the longevity of high pressure thats up for question though with the ECM prolonging it until the end of the week, whereas the GFS has a more unsettled look at T+168 but still warm.

12z ECM for that date above has south westerly winds A breakdown of the high towards next weekend and into the following week looks a good bet but what it will bring isn't yet ECM has gone from a northerly to south westerly in 12 hours. More runs needed as ever

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif Spectacular collapse in the NAO into next week suggesting a real pattern change after several months of relative stability. http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015041712/gfsnh-0-144.png?12 And there's your evidence with a classic NAO negative pattern but will this become a west-based negative pattern http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015041712/gfsnh-0-384.png?12 Well, not really. The jet trends south so nothing very summer or even spring-like after the current spell as we go into the last third of April. http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2015041712/gem-0-156.png?12 GEM shows the southerly jet and hints at west-based NAO development perhaps a shade more than GFS http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2015041712/gemnh-0-192.png?12 Yet the new Greenland/Canada block looks oriented to keep the cold air spilling South and South-West into the Atlantic. Very interesting and different synoptics from what we've had for some time.

Biting cold icy wind...LOL! 15C in parts of the Midlands tomorrow...."icy" hmmmm!!! Now Skegness! that's one place this weekend i wouldn't fancy 8C and feeling more like 5C in that biting wind off the North-sea...Brrrrr

Global highlights: Year-to-date (January–March 2015) During January–March, the average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces was 1.48°F (0.82°C) above the 20th century average. This was the highest for January–March in the 1880–2015 record, surpassing the previous record of 2002 by 0.09°F (0.05°C). During January–March, the globally-averaged land surface temperature was 2.86°F (1.59°C) above the 20th century average. This was the highest for January–March in the 1880–2015 record, surpassing the previous record of 2002 by 0.09°F (0.05°C) During January–March, the globally-averaged sea surface temperature was 0.95°F (0.53°C) above the 20th century average. This was the third highest for January–March in the 1880–2015 record. For extended analysis of global temperature and precipitation patterns, please see our full March report

Another great shot from the Isle Of Sky last night.

It's me who should apologise John, sorry I over reacted, it's guys like you that I'm trying to learn from and make my input better, no hard feelings I hope.

Looking at the latest week ahead forecast from the beeb this high will be with us all next week http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/32344383

Looking like a nice dry spell coming up over the weekend. Get out and enjoy if you can folk's

Inverness last night..