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Showing content with the highest reputation on 16/04/15 in all areas

  1. It will be a first class call for a pattern change if it is correct as the anomaly charts, NOAA only out that far, do not show anything like that, link below http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php nor is there any clue of this in the MJO GFS output, although after the winter I rarely take much notice of this for ideas on 500mb patterns. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/foroper.shtml nor is the latest ECMWF very keen on that idea; it does show orange colours in the far NW indicative of 'real' surface high pressure but the trough SE of this is not shown as swinging east to allow the deep cold in the far north to sweep south. An interesting idea to watch though, very cold northerlies are not that unusual (v cold for April that is) at this time of the year. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsecmeur.html
    5 points
  2. Not particularly convinced that we will see anything that cold in the final week of April. The high looks likely to set up over Canada which would probably be too far west for cold air to make an influence. I suspect we will see a deep trough develop in the Atlantic which will allow low pressure to push north east towards the UK and allow a more unsettled regime to take hold. But the detail about this look very uncertain, whilst a cold solution cannot be ruled out, at the same time it isn't inconceivable that the cold plunge into the Atlantic could allow a warm or very warm southerly to develop during the later part of next week. The ECM op for example gets temperatures into the twenties in London again by next weekend. The phrase more runs needed comes to mind with a lot of scatter, a lot of warm members and some rather chilly ones. Again the unsettled theme can be seem by the rainfall totals from around the 24th onwards So the next 8 days look dry at least for now.
    3 points
  3. HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON THURSDAY APRIL 16TH 2015. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure will slowly develop over Northern Britain with the remains of a weak front over Central areas moving further South and dissipating entirely by tomorrow. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry, settled and occasionally warm weather across the UK. A little rain is likely at times especially later in week 2 with temperatures returning nearer to average. THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST A period of generally weak Jet flow activity remains forecast with the flow steered well North of the UK due to High pressure near the North of the UK itself. Later in the run though still fairly weak the flow will be directed South of the UK towards Spain and Portugal as Low pressure becomes more of a feature around the UK. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational this morning shows High pressure across or near to the North of the UK over the next week or so with fine and dry weather with sunny spells and although the positioning of this could mean somewhat cooler temperatures than of late especially across the South there will be some pleasant weather to be enjoyed at times for all with the best warmth and sunshine likely in the NW. Later High pressure declines and the UK becomes much more at risk of rain or showers as pressure falls from both the North and West with temperatures not that warm either at the end of the period. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run is much kinder than the operational and though it also shows some decline in the influence of High pressure through the second week the path to that involves High pressure largely remaing close to the SE with just occasional rain likely focused towards the NW with any rain reaching other areas slight and short-lived. THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS clusters remain mixed for two weeks today with the overlying trend being for some sort of High pressure to the SW with a light NW flow down across the UK in what would be pargely average temperatures for early May. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO shows High pressure well established across the UK next week, remaining centred across the UK with light winds and dry weather for all with sunny spells and temperatures very respectable for many if not hot but with some chilly nights. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show any weak fronts near the South dissipating leaving the UK in the circulation of a High pressure over Northern Britain with a chilly NE flow over the South at times tempering the temperatures and dragging in some cloudier patches as well. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120. GEM GEM today loosely follows the trend of GFS by maintaining dry and fine weather across the UK over the next week as High pressure holds firm before rather more unsettled conditions develops as pressure falls from the NW with Low pressure gradually taking over control with rain at times by the end of the run. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM maintains High pressure across the UK right out to the end of the run although High pressure becomes more in the form of a ridge from High pressure by then well to the NW of the UK and fine weather holding on across the UK though never impressively warm. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif. ECM ECM today has differed slightly this morning with the shift of High pressure to the South of the UK by 10 days time setting up a more traditional NW/SE split in the weather by then with rain at times especially across the North and West. In the short term there will be plenty of fine and dry weather as High pressure remains centred across the top of the UK http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN(12z)The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night is beginning to trend towards something more unsettled as Low pressure over the Atlantic edges into the UK from the West and NW with High pressure receding away to the SE by then. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends this morning maintain High pressure well in control of the UK for most of the term of the outputs on offer today though a shift towards more unsettled weather with time is indicated still by some output. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.6 pts followed by UKM at 97.0 pts and GFS at 96.3. At 5 days ECM continues to lead the field at 90.3 pts over UKMO at 89.1 pts and GFS at 87.0. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 67.3 pts over GFS's 61.9 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 47.7 pts over GFS at 43.1. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig MY THOUGHTS Not much change in the models this morning especially in the short term with High pressure remaining dominant across Britain for the reliable future, probably centred a little further North and NW than would be ideal but ensuring a lot of fine and dry weather across all areas of the UK for some considerable time. Temperatures may be suppressed somewhat especially near the East coast where more cloud could drift in off a chilly North Sea at times. Elsewhere there should be some pleasantly warm sunny conditions especially in the sheltered West but clear skies overnight could bring the risk of grass frosts still so gardeners and growers beware. Then looking into the crystal ball of week 2 the general consensus is still for a slow decline in High pressure with the risk of some rain or showers slowly increasing across the UK probably from the West and NW as High pressure recedes away to the East and SE. Details of any such decline in conditions is very sketchy still and not very consistent in type so any deterioration in conditions remains at more than arms length and uncertain for the moment so we can all continue to enjoy the pleasant mid Spring conditions with little rainfall and average temperatures. Next update from 08:00 Friday April 17th 2015
    3 points
  4. There has been a strong final warming of the stratosphere this year with a large spike in temperatures over the pole,which i feel is at least partly responsible for the sort of Northern hemisphere charts we are starting to see for the last week in April with Northern blocking becoming apparent and polar air being forced to lower latitudes. The models will no doubt struggle with this change,and it will be interesting to see what happens when the dust settles in a few weeks time as thoughts turn to summer prospects....
    2 points
  5. Most notable aspect of today's models, is the projection for significant height rises to the NW as we move through next week, sinking the jet southwards and ushering in much more unsettled and generally chilly conditions for the time of year. I've said before many a time we are entering the time of year when northerlies reach their yearly maxim and cool N/NE airstreams can be very persistant despite what should be a rapidly warming period..
    2 points
  6. The ECM has the high slowly slipping southwards during next week so we would swap a light northeasterly for a breezy southwesterly. Eastern England, which will see the coolest conditions during the first half of the week would warm up and winds change direction. Meanwhile more unsettled conditions pushing into western areas to end the week.
    2 points
  7. Morning all The 24th has been showing up very frequently the last few days for the potential breakdown and this mornings runs maintain that thought. So another week of high pressure to go before a change its looking like. Here are the ECM and GFS 0z means: At 8 days out though, its still not certain and the high could prove more stubborn, as they often do!
    2 points
  8. Thank god Catch, I'm so fed up with the late cold springs these last few years. I can see why people retire to the sun when they older, this is dragging me down. I haven't even looked at the garden yet, just canny be assed at all. Maybe some nice warm sun will work wonders. Just in the process of packing the cat's bags, she's being kicked oot. Woke up to a fieldmouse running round the kitchen and furface snoring beside me on my pillow
    2 points
  9. 2 points
  10. The ECM 12z slams the door shut on any cool northerly thanks to low pressure setting up just to the west of the UK dragging up fairly warm and pleasant conditions from the south,. The 12z mean suggests the warmer SW outcome is more likely.
    2 points
  11. Seeing as we are only just over 3 weeks away now, some Storm Porn and a little help from you chasers and followers to see what you think is the best Storm out of these 20 Supercells from the 2012-2014 Seasons. We really have seen some of Planet Earths Best Supercells over the past 3 years, I still have Seasons 2005-2011 which Include some Stunners as 2010 was known as the Structure Year but they will have to be for another day! I will give 5 Points for your 1st Option, 3 Points for your 2nd Option and 1 Point for your 3rd Option. Then we can crown the Ultimate Supercell as well as getting you ready to drool over Storms like these which we might be witnessing in a few weeks time! 1. Wessington Springs HP Supercell (South Dakota) 18th June 2014 2. Coleridge Classic Supercell (Nebraska) 17th June 2014 3. Pilger Classic Supercell (Nebraska) 16th June 2014 4. Roswell Classic Supercell (New Mexico) 06th June 2014 5. Scottsbluff Classic Supercell (Nebraska) 19th May 2014 6. Climax Classic Supercell (Kansas) 10th May 2014 7. Henrietta Classic Supercell (Texas) 08th May 2014 8. Broken Bow LP Supercell (Nebraska) 26th May 2013 9. West Point Classic Supercell (Nebraska) 14th June 2013 10. El Reno HP Supercell (Oklahoma) 31st May 2013 11. Ballinger LP Supercell (Texas) 09th May 2013 12. Seymour HP Supercell (Texas) 30th May 2012 13. Ogallalla LP Supercell (Nebraska) 22nd June 2012 14. Limon HP Supercell (Colorado) 07th June 2012 15. Dover Classic Supercell (Oklahoma) 29th May 2012 16. Adrian LP Supercell (Texas) 22nd May 2012 17. Campo Classic Supercell (Colorado) 31st May 2010 18. Clinton LP Supercell (Oklahoma) 19th May 2012 19. Roswell HP Supercell (New Mexico) 13th May 2012 20. Cooperton HP Supercell (Oklahoma) 13th April 2012 Hope a Lot of you can get involved and we can crown a champion before I depart on the 6th May Regards Paul S
    1 point
  12. So I have just been reading about the extremely cold weather of January 1982 and I'm curious about what the pattern of temperatures across a large area looks like under certain conditions. So far as I have been able to gather, on the night when Newport in Shropshire set the English low temperature record of around -26, temperatures across the midlands, where skies were clear anyway, were around minus 15 to 18 in most locations. At my local station in Oxford we reached -16.6, which is our all time low record. What interests me is firstly what factors determine where the extreme cold temperatures are recorded in such conditions--is Newport a notorious frost hollow, or is there a strong element of randomness, in which case Oxford could theoretically reach -20 under a perfect storm of conditions? Extreme low temperature events certainly seem more complicated than 'extreme' high temperature events, where the whole of the SE can be 35c+ away from immediate coastal areas. Secondly, what is lowest temperature that can feasibly occur in a widespread fashion in England/the UK (I say England because in a mountainous area like the Scottish highlands I imagine it's much much more complex)? Is it, as I assume, around -16 to -18? And how often do these very low temperatures occur--the lowest that has occurred where I live in my lifetime (a mere twenty years) is, I think, about -12, in December 2010, which is an incredible 14 degrees above the all time record for a location with pretty much the same winter averages... So far as I can tell, a very cold spell, in which temps might reach -10 to -15 across a large area is much more common than an extremely cold one in which they might fall below -15, which might be a once or twice in a lifetime event--and the colder the widespread temperature, the greater the variance, hence the extraordinary reading at Newport. But maybe I'm wrong about some of this. Obviously I am somewhat ignoring urban areas here which seem to struggle even to reach negative double figures at all. I was also fascinated to read that the average daily maximum across many areas in Feb 1947 was as low as -2 to -3--this is like seeing a July averaging over 33 degrees! Perhaps this is a somewhat perverse subject to think about for those of us in the south today, but I'd welcome any input. And if anyone has done any analysis of these events or has any data on the probability distribution of very low temperatures and the effect of location on this distribution I'd be incredibly excited to see it. If this is in the wrong forum, mods please feel free to move it.
    1 point
  13. post day 10 would turn even colder frosty, how on earth do you know. It is far from a done deal? http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsecmeur.html shows it at 240h. I am baffled how that chart, taking into account also the 00z version, can turn into what you describe. Nor is there much to support for your suggestion from the 8-14 NOAA output, see below http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php Mind you, you are not the only one, especially in winter, to try to 6th guess what any model MIGHT show! Of course you may be right in the end but at the moment there is little meteorologically that I can see that supports your assertion.
    1 point
  14. I'm on the hill in WsM and just saw a flash, thunder wasn't much but i do have the tv on.
    1 point
  15. Yes can confirm .i live about 8 miles east of weston ,we had a very loud crack abo ut 10 mins ago [and again now it seems to be drifting east or n east cheers ,i,v also posted in local thread .
    1 point
  16. A very unsettled end to the month again from GFS with potentially a deep low as well turning things very windy for a time After a very dry April it would be turning wetter maybe even some snow for the high ground in northern England and Scotland
    1 point
  17. The GEFS 6z mean indicates a warmer, sunnier spell next week with high pressure centred on top of the UK but then, as with the 6z op, retrogression occurs and arctic air pushes south into the far north of the UK, thereafter, the UK becomes cooler and generally unsettled.
    1 point
  18. Just popping back to yesterday and what I was saying about the north coast. Amazing cloud over #Bristol Channel at 1130am 15/4. Lovely day in south of UK. #MODIS sensor http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?project=other&subset=United_Kingdom_Ireland.2015105.terra.1km …
    1 point
  19. As some maybe aware back in the warm June of 1858, London was overwhelmed by the smell of untreated sewage that became known as the "Great Stink" of 1858 and this lead to the development of the sewage system after MPs started to refuse to attend Parliament because of the "poisonous airs" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Great_Stink In 1881, there was another "Great Stink" when cold ESEly winds pulled in from continental Europe across the UK. Pollutants from the Ruhr industrial region and the Saar coalfields had become trapped under an inversion during late March.The inversion eventually lifted and the pollutants from the Ruhr, Saar and from the pig farms of Alsace-Lorraine (then under German rule) spread ENEwards across northern France and the UK.By the first of April, the "sulphurous airs" had crossed the Channel into SE England. A smell of rotten eggs (from the high sulphur content in German coal) hung in the air for much of that day in and around London and the concern of the government was a repeat of the "Great Stink of 1858" especially with Mr Gladstone, the then Prime Minister. Queen Victoria was in residence at Osborne House on the Isle of Wight at the time when her walk around the grounds of her beloved home on the Isle of Wight was cut short by the smell. A furious Queen Victoria telegrammed Gladstone demanding action especially after what happened in 1858, when she was driven from London to Windsor Castle because of the "Great Stink". She made it clear that she would not be driven from Osborne House because of the "foul air" and that she was not amused. Gladstone contacted the Royal Society for an immediate investigation. It was noted that there was a definite edge to the "sulphorous airs" It reached Dover about 1am on the first of April, London by 3am, and moved ENEwards in an arc across southern England reaching a line from the Isle of Wight to the Wash about 5am. By 9am, it had spread across the whole of southern parts of the UK south of a line from Blackpool to the Humber with a pong of rotten eggs in the air.Thankfully, the "pong" lifted the next day as it became diffused but enough information was gathered by the Royal Society to conclude the origin of the "smell" was from the industrial heartlands of the German Empire. Gladstone, after consultation with the Cabinet, contacted the German Chancellor Bismarck after the French Premier Charles de Freycinet was concerned it could be a new weapon being developed "to pong out the enemy" with "noxious fumes". Bismarck reassured the French and British government that no weapon was being developed by the German military to "pong" out the enemy.
    1 point
  20. Yes PM, the Gfs has been showing this type of arctic incursion shown on the 6z at times recently, as you say, the devil will be in the detail.
    1 point
  21. Yes Frosty, The GFS has stuck with the more unsettled cooler end to April with some kind of Northerly flow for a good few days now. The devil will be in the detail..
    1 point
  22. Indeed, considering it is mid-April I might decide to try and build a summer forecast using the CFS monthly data (This time I will use the 06z data each day for a level of consistency). So starting today June 500mb pressure anomaly Rainfall anomaly Temperature Low heights just to the west or south west of the UK, heights over Eastern and north east Europe with a general southerly component to the wind direction. This is an unsettled and warm set up, with potential for some pretty potent convective activity. Given this set up I would suggest an above average chance of a plume set up occurring which could bring some heat and thunderstorms to many. July Pressure anomaly Rainfall Temperature Heights just west of the UK in this month, this will tend to be a drier than average month, warm in the north and west, but around normal or even a tad below in eastern and southern counties due to an unfavourable wind direction. August Height anomaly Rainfall Temperature This would suggest that the Azores high will set up to the south or south west of the UK, so a mixed westerly pattern with the south drier than normal and the north generally wetter than normal. Temperatures close to or a little above average. The word bland could be used here I think. Hopefully I can keep this up until mid-May when I will have a crack at the summer overall.
    1 point
  23. Kriging involves a more than simple linear interpolation that one can use in excel with 2 points in excel. It involves local, regional and global spatial trends (not just linear), with covarience based weightings, etc. The accuracy was mainly assessed by removing known temperature data, and filling in with kriging and hybrid data and comparing to the real observations. With your example, multidirectional trends would be taken into account, as using kriging to fill in a simple line of data points would be no better than other estimates. So rather than just the NW-SE line, other regions of data would be taken into account and the effect of the land/sea boundary could be easily accounted for. Different methods could be tested and assessed, then the most accurate used. Anyway, the method they found that was the most accurate involved using the HadCrut4/UAH hybrid and kriging, where their respective errors were lowest. Personally, I think trying to fill in gaps caused by missing data does provide an area for a researchers bias to get in the way, but it's better than pretending that these areas don't exist. Also, I'd hope the peer review process and the open nature of their work (all code and data are provided on their university web pages) should help with spotting any obvious errors or bias.
    1 point
  24. 9.5c to the 15th 2.5c above the 61 to 90 average 1.8c above the 81 to 10 average
    1 point
  25. some mid level instability around here this morning......some Ac Cas drifting up from the SW trying to tower but not succeeding at the moment.....not expecting anything of note, but it's nice to see anyhoos..... just seen the above forecast from convectiveweather.co.uk.....just realised it's the rebranding of the old UKASF site, nice to see them up and running again
    1 point
  26. Kriging provides a best unbiased linear estimate for interpolation: in it's two dimensional (Cartesian) form if we know values at (x1,y1) and (x2,y2), can we determine what the value is anywhere on the line that connects the two points. In it's simplest form this is analagous to the standard linear regression (ie the slap a line on an Excel spreadsheet mathturbation etc) I haven't read the paper by Cowtan etc, so I can't possibly comment on their initial assumptions which are crucially vital. Critically, one needs to select data points very carefully as Kriging, given it's linear analogue, is open to both cherry picking and is vastly affected by outliers. Consider the following: if we take the temperature in London, and the temperature in Paris, can we necessarily derive the temperature at the surface in the middle of the English Channel? Anyone with even a modicum of interest in meteorology would question such an experiment as suspect (although it might well work, I don't know) The problem is, is that it is a linear solution to a non-linear problem; so all of the caveats must be considered.
    1 point
  27. This mornings anomalies are still looking at a breakdown of this fine weather (alologies to those up north) from around the T192 mark. Essentially LP Faroes with a trough into NE Europe and another orientated SW into the Atlantic with weak HP over western Europe. This would tend to LP to the west and NE and a south westerly fetch over the UK with unsettled condition and around average temps. But I wouldn't rubber stamp the script just yet as it does depend on how much the HP can hang on and influence things. Having said that it does appear that zonality and more trough influence will be the order of the day in the ext period. Charts courtesy weatherbell
    1 point
  28. We usually have a single car with the streaming camera, as we all travel in convoy having one on each would only show the same view and burn through bandwidth. The camera is mounted inside the windscreen and we try to make sure that it's catching what we are seeing, occasionally the sound is on, but as chasing can be quite an adrenaline rush the language might be a bit 'loud' for sensitive ears, so we don't always have audio on. Of course a streaming camera has limitations, the main one being available bandwidth, we visit some pretty remote places, so the signal can drop out, and the 'Golden Hour' for storms in the USA is around 6pm local time, which means things typically really get going in the late evening UK time. Which results in some people catching up with the events over breakfast.
    1 point
  29. There were some big stones that fell just as we had stopped to take pictures and then we had to get back in the car, I remember one whizzing down like a small meteorite and someone got hit on the leg?. And yep, then we hid under a garage canopy - I've got some video of Tyler, Stuart and I outside the car being silly and putting hailstones down each other's backs. Hail is sharp edged people. Don't do it.
    1 point
  30. Why raw temperatures show too little global warming http://variable-variability.blogspot.co.uk/2015/04/raw-temperatures-show-too-little-global-warming.html
    1 point
  31. With good snow cover and long nights like December and January it can get very cold under clear skies and little wind. If the conditions persist for several days there is little heat from the sun and days can stay well below freezing too as nights get ever colder. A kickstart to this scenario is pulling in an exceptional cold pool to start with. In December 1981 we had a run of days where it plunged as low as -12 even before sunset but typically it would creep up later. There was about 18 inches of deep powdery snow which lasted most of the month. Although this area can be a rather cold area it isn't a notorious frost hollow, and there's no reason why large areas of England couldn't get this somewhat freakish set up if conditions conspire. Built up areas these days will always stay considerably warmer than rural though. The warmth among buildings is very noticeable when motorbiking at night or just watching a car thermometer - It can easily be 5C warmer in town. -
    1 point
  32. The operational's all right but i'm wary of that mean. Shift the trough a couple of hundred miles east and we get an extremely wet synoptic.
    1 point
  33. Evening Folks. The mainly dry theme continues, with high pressure in control, but what will be dramatic is the temperature difference! The weekend will offer a very cold wind to southern parts of the uk from the NorthEast. Looks like cloudy conditions will be extensive with some patchy light rain/drizzle for some especially for those exposed to the northeasterly wind. Parts of Wales and Southwest England could enjoy the warmest of temperatures. The east coast of Britain will shiver in the days ahead. Its been a dry winter and spring so far here, and it looks like continuing for some time yet!
    1 point
  34. very true, just hope it's not reapeted anytime soon !!.
    1 point
  35. When you say we will have a nagging north easterly until next Tuesday I assume you mean your location because the northern half of the UK will have light winds being closer to the core of the intensifying anticyclone so it will actually feel pleasantly warm in central and northern areas in the sunshine and light winds.
    1 point
  36. France enjoying a very warm week and yesterday (Tuesday) the 30c threshold was breached for the first time this year. Some highlights from the report on the Meteo France website: After a particularly sunny and warm Monday anticyclonic conditions persisted Tuesday, April 14 on the country and the threshold of 30 ° C was reached for the first time this year! On the Aquitaine coast, it has frequently between 29 and 31 ° C in the afternoon. Météo-France has even recorded 31.6 ° C at Cap Ferret. This is a new monthly record for this station opened in 1887, the previous record of 31.5 ° C was dated 22 April 1893. In many other French cities the maximum temperature, whilst not reaching any records, on Tuesday afternoon saw a surplus of 10 to 14c degrees above the normal 24 ° C in Reims 25 ° C in Brest and Bourges 26 ° C to Paris and Tours 28 ° C in Toulouse and Auch 29 ° C in Biarritz, Bordeaux, Cognac and Limoges 30 ° C to Nîmes Full report in French: http://www.meteofrance.fr/actualites/24343512-le-seuil-des-30c-franchi-pour-la-premiere-fois
    1 point
  37. 18-20c is for near the south coast tomorrow. Very warm for mid April.
    1 point
  38. Whats causing the ice growth wind , fresh water , warmer waters ? Why is it 'boring' and I assume you mean 'nonsensical' If a climate model is wrong surely that's worthy of further research ? Personally i think the comment below from Dr Parkinson is a cop out. ""The fact that ice in one part of the world is doing one thing and in another part ice is doing another is not surprising" I think Dr Parkinson would be more honest if she said we don't know at present the jury is out.
    1 point
  39. The remainder of April sees most of the highest daily figures being achieved in 2014 - all of the daily records for May are set in 2014. My ancient system cannot open the link up page so I'll show both months as a screen shot for quick reference. April May http://www.cawcr.gov.au/staff/preid/seaice/sea_ice_table_extent.html
    1 point
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