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HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON WEDNESDAY APRIL 15TH 2015. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A weakening cold front will move South across England and Wales today and tonight with pressure High to the South declining slowly. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry, settled and occasionally warm weather across the UK. A little rain is likely at times especially later in week 2 with temperatures returning nearer to average. THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST A period of generally weak Jet flow activity is likely as the flow over Northern Scotland realigns well North and South of the UK from the weekend and next week strengthening slowly and relocating close to the UK by the end of the period as pressure falls. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational this morning shows High pressure across or near to the North of the UK over the next week or so with fine and dry weather with sunny spells and although the positioning of this could mean somewhat cooler temperatures than of late there will be some pleasant High pressure at times for all with the best warmth and sunshine likely in the NW. Later High pressure recedes away SE and a cold NW flow with rain or showers looks likely towards the end of the second week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run is very similar in theme this morning with the best weather in Week 1 as pressure stays High across the Uk with fine and dry conditions though often with a chilly East wind across the South. This run too illustrates much more unsettled weather in Week 2 as Low pressure pulls down from the North with windy and sometimes wet weather alternating with chilly and showery conditions as well. THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS clusters remain mixed for two weeks today as the majority of members show High pressure to the South or SW with some or quite a bit of influence shown by Atlantic fronts and depressions either to the North and NE of the UK.. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO shows High pressure well established across the UK at the weekend and early next week but with a central position over the North or just West of Scotland and Ireland later a chilly East feed looks like affecting the South at times where it may also become rather cloudy and cooler especially near East facing coasts with the best conditions to the NW. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show the weak front currently moving South across Britain dissipating across Southern England in the coming days to leave High pressure well established across Northern Britain with dry and fine weather for all but with an increasing and cool East wind developing across the South. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120. GEM GEM today loosely follows the trend of GFS by maintaining dry and fine weather across the UK over the next week as High pressure holds firm before rather colder and more showery weather feeds down across the UK from the North late in the period as pressure falls. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM shows High pressure well in control over the next 168hrs or so with the centre up to the Northwest of the UK or over the North for much of the time maintaining fine and dry weather though with chillier conditions for the SE for much of the time. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif. ECM ECM today is a little different in that while High pressure remains dominant to the North of the UK for the next week with fine weather and the same chilly East flow across the South at times a shift towards more Atlantic based Westerly weather type looks likely as we move into the second week especially in the NW as High pressure returns to a point SE of the UK. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN(12z) The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows slack pressure gradients across the UK with some shallow Low features possibly giving rise to a few showers across the South and the threat of colder North winds shown to the area of the norwegian Sea which could become signifiacant with time. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends this morning maintain High pressure well in control of the UK for most of the term of the outputs on offer today though a shift towards colder conditions from the north or NW is hinted at later. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.6 pts followed by UKM at 97.1 pts and GFS at 96.3. At 5 days ECM continues to lead the field at 90.4 pts over UKMO at 88.9 pts and GFS at 87.0. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 67.4 pts over GFS's 61.6 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 47.7 pts over GFS at 42.9. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig MY THOUGHTS The main focus on the outputs this morning remain the longevity and extent of High pressure near or close to the UK largely maintaining the fine and bright weather for some considerable time. However, having said that the positioning of the High is such that wall to wall sunshine and high temperatures such as those the South have enjoyed of late look more unlikely to be maintained after today as an Easterly or NE flow is likely to develop across Southern Britain from tomorrow dragging cooler air and more cloud in off the North Sea and while I hope the North Sea doesn't become infilled with extensive low cloud and mist it there is a distinct possibility that it will and if it does the South could see some chilly and cloudy conditions rather than the bright and sunnier conditions that would then focus on the West and NW where the highest temperatures would also transfer too. For those looking for more maintained dry conditions this looks more universally likely with little if any frontal rainfall anywhere after today for some considerable time. Then we have to look to the outer limits of the model runs today to see another general thought feeling between the models that a push of more unsettled and from some colder weather looks increasingly likely from the North later in the second week with rain at times for many and perhaps even wintry showers over the North but all this remains a long way off and is naturally open to change. So in a nutshell a lot of fine and dry weather for the next few weeks for all but the main caveat being it will not always mean wall to wall sunshine and high temperatures especially in the South where it may feel rather chilly at times in a brisk East wind and a lot of cloud at times. Next update from 08:00 Thursday April 16th 2015

When you say we will have a nagging north easterly until next Tuesday I assume you mean your location because the northern half of the UK will have light winds being closer to the core of the intensifying anticyclone so it will actually feel pleasantly warm in central and northern areas in the sunshine and light winds.

There is a nationwide settled spell on the way from Friday which continues for much of next week as a new area of high pressure builds in and intensifies over the UK, the Gfs 00z for example shows HP still in charge by next Thursday. I expect it will become rather warm again once the high is firmly established.

Netweathers headline is southern warmth fading with a widespread cool settled spell starting friday, looks much cooler from tomorrow for the midlands.

Consensus appears to be that pressure will remain solidly high until at least day 8.

Looking good into next week on the Gfs 6z with high pressure covering the UK and temperatures rising into the 60's F nationwide and plenty of sunshine for all, much of next week looks fine and warm with temperatures nudging higher, becoming very warm later next week as a trough digs south to the west of the UK enabling warmer air from the azores to bathe the uk.

Weren't we huddled under a garage canopy for that one? That turned out to be not much help as the hail arrived horizontally.

Well the models do seem to agree on retrogression taking place, but the ECM and GFS tend to result in a cyclonic south to south westerly developing as the Atlantic system starts to encroach on the UK. ECM GFS The GEM suite seems more keen on trying to pull a northerly down though This tying in with the operational at that time We will have to see what happens, but the trend to more unsettled conditions remains at around the day 9/10 range with the near normal temperature outcome favoured, though with colder options still on the table. I must also add that the warmer solution with a more resilient ridge should be considered as well as models do tend to underestimate the weaker features.

ECM ens shows the high lasting well into next week this morning though an easterly flow so some eastern coasts could well be cooler with the risk of cloud / sea fog D9 and D10 shows the possibility of something more unsettled developing with cooler air in the far north but temps around or slightly average the further south you go

I might even join you:-)

Evening Folks. The mainly dry theme continues, with high pressure in control, but what will be dramatic is the temperature difference! The weekend will offer a very cold wind to southern parts of the uk from the NorthEast. Looks like cloudy conditions will be extensive with some patchy light rain/drizzle for some especially for those exposed to the northeasterly wind. Parts of Wales and Southwest England could enjoy the warmest of temperatures. The east coast of Britain will shiver in the days ahead. Its been a dry winter and spring so far here, and it looks like continuing for some time yet!

The ECM 12z slams the door shut on any cool northerly thanks to low pressure setting up just to the west of the UK dragging up fairly warm and pleasant conditions from the south,. The 12z mean suggests the warmer SW outcome is more likely.

lol, guess that won't be all over the red tops !!.

And a chilly easterly likely for southern parts. Now that won't go down well with the SE biased media.

Looks like we will have a nagging north easterly wind from tomorrow through to around next Tuesday. This could bring a lot of cool and cloudy conditions to eastern areas and even more central areas at times. Tuesday onwards the high drifts south eastwards which will hopefully bring warmer and sunnier weather more widely across the UK. Beyond this point, cold Arctic air starts to head southwards as heights retrogress towards Greenland, where this cold air goes and the resulting UK pattern remains uncertain, though a drift towards unsettled conditions look more likely towards the latter end of week 2. Some colder options and warmer options. ECM looks rather warm from the middle of next week. low twenties possible during week 2 on the ECM. More swings and roundabouts to come.

Hey I think there might actually be something stirring in the channel... Rain radar picking up bits and pieces ... Then again they might just be Russian warships

The GFS 12z shows temperatures returning to normal by friday with low teens celsius but then they lift a little through the weekend, edging closer to 60F in favoured spots, next week shows temps returning to above average. Next week looks very pleasant with long sunny spells but then by week 2 it becomes cooler and unsettled from the NW

18-20c is for near the south coast tomorrow. Very warm for mid April.

Agree with SS, looks to feel very chilly in a cold wind for my location, from tomorrow really

Forcasts say for the south east staying at 12c from thursday to sunday. Not sure where the 18-20c comes from. It will feel like winter again down here if there is little sun. Sorry that should also include FRostys quote.

Another very settled UKMO with the high firmly over the UK the south could have a noticable and chilly wind this weekend but it should ease by early next week, cloud amounts in the east could be quite high at times as well with the easterly flow

Here's the running HadCrut4 rank. The first value will always rank 1 (because there's only one value to compare it to) Not quite the forever breaking records, is it? And, incidentally, there have been numerous periods where adjacent years have been the warmest in the entire series before it. What would one reasonably expect on a rising trend? All utterly unremarkable.

Widespread cool is over doing it, temperatures returning to normal is hardly widespread cool is it? The outlook is very pleasant with high pressure, light winds and lots of sunshine, then temps returning to above average.

When I come to power, I'll make it illegal to work on days as lovely as this.

9.4c to the 14th 2.5c above the 61 to 90 average 1.7c above the 81 to 10 average

I'd rather have June 2012 too.. at least everyone had rubbish weather then. Nothing worse than sitting under a stagnant layer of cloud while 100 miles away they have glorious weather. No thanks. It's all or nothing for me. But yes, they do seem to have increased in frequency. This type of set up is not normal, or at least it shouldn't be. It's just silly. Bring back the nationwide heatwave.

Sunshine gone very hazy here, not as warm as yesterday when we were in the blue sky all day. That band of cloud seems to have reached the Midlands and then stopped. SE v the rest is the absolute worst in summer (Aug 2009, July 2010, Aug 2012); day after day they bask in sunshine while everywhere else gets cool dull rubbish. Never get any thunder when it happens either, I actually prefer June 2012 type weather given the choice. The divide always sets up in the same place, and the heat constantly refuses to shift even 100 miles north. It seems to be more and more common since 2000.

At least you're not alone in your despair. Hasn't even reached 10C here yet! 23C in the SE and just 9C here - I don't think I've ever seen such a drastic difference in weather between here and there in my entire life. It's literally like a summer day in London but a winter day here. Just bonkers.

As feared, a despicable day with an atrocious contrast in temperatures and conditions. Yesterday only got going late in the afternoon too, with unbroken blue sky teasing just to the south. The worst warm weather setup.

Bugger!.......thanks for your summaries though chaps nice to see you out of hibernation H!

The anomalies support the idea of ridge conditions into the 6-10 day period and possibly further out too. http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

The GFS again this morning shows an unsettled Northerly flow towards the end of the Month. Some great Spring weather as we speak, With some places hitting 24/25c this afternoon in the far South. While the North keeps to single digits..

I see in the model thread they're worrying about a possible 'break down'. Otherwise known in Scotland as the usual.

Cloud in the northwest will edge southwards tomorrow but first some warm sunshine for most in central & southern parts of the Midlands with temps ranging from 14c to 20c Regarding today here's a snap shot from this afternoon

The minimum today is 6.9C while maxima look like climbing into the low 18s, so an increase to 9.4C is likely on tomorrows update. After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at: 9.7C to the 15th (14.1) 9.8C to the 16th (11.3) 9.8C to the 17th (8. 9.7C to the 18th (8.5) 9.6C to the 19th (8.6) 9.6C to the 20th (9.7) 9.7C to the 21st (10.4) 9.7C to the 22nd (10.1) 9.6C to the 23rd (6.5) Below is a graph showing (provided we are on 9.7C to the 18th) how the CET would pan out according to the final 12 days of every other year in the CET record. The maximum we would reach, should we follow 1740, 2006 or 2010, is 10.7C. The lowest, should we follow 1808, is 7.1C. The 95th percentile in red (to finish is the warmest 5%) is 10.3C, while the 5th percentile in blue (coldest 5%) would leave us around 8.2C. That 8.2C to 10.3C can be seen as the likely finishing range before corrections, with something truly exceptional required to take the CET outside of that range.

The south east is warmer, but not THAT much warmer. The difference is only 2c at most on average. I doubt most people would notice the difference. I didn't expect 25c here, but did expect around 21c which is what the models were going for before.. 20c in April is hardly unusual. Nothing I can do about it but I'm going to complain nonetheless. And I'm still unhappy with the output. Cloudy and dry does not cut it for me, mild or otherwise. Summer can't come soon enough.

Whats causing the ice growth wind , fresh water , warmer waters ? Why is it 'boring' and I assume you mean 'nonsensical' If a climate model is wrong surely that's worthy of further research ? Personally i think the comment below from Dr Parkinson is a cop out. ""The fact that ice in one part of the world is doing one thing and in another part ice is doing another is not surprising" I think Dr Parkinson would be more honest if she said we don't know at present the jury is out.

I'll email you the invoice? ;)

It's swings and roundabouts though. The south might enjoy more heat extremes in spring/summer, but the north generally gets more snow/ice events in the winter.

Update for the week to April 12th The current 5 day mean is on 14,062,200km2 while the 1 day extent is at 14,158,000km2. The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -859,810km2, a decrease from -908,920km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -311,870km2, a decrease from -349,600km2 last week. We're currently 3rd lowest on record, the same as last week. The average daily change over the last 7 days was -28.7k/day, compared to the long term average of -35.2k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -33.6k/day. The average long term change over the next week is -40.0k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -24.5k/day. The change so far this April was the 19th least negative on record. To achieve the largest monthly drop a daily loss of at least -48.3k/day is required, while the smallest drop requires less than 14.0k/day and an average drop requires 29.0k/day.

Been a great week of Easter weather hope you where all out enjoying it, it's a shame that some people think it's great craic to set fire to dried out gorse areas, idiots.

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/georgemonbiot/2015/apr/09/daily-express-weather-warning-beware-a-shower-of-extreme-inaccuracy About time!