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Showing most liked content on 15/04/15 in all areas

  1. 3 likes
    I think the quietness is down to the polls. Average of most recent full Scottish (Yougov and TNS): 50% SNP 25% Lab 14% Con 5% Lib These would be our latest polls if we were back in... (with difference from result): 2010 Yougov 40(-2)% Lab 20(+1)% SNP 19(nc)% Lib 17(nc)% Con 2011 Scottish Opinion, Holyrood Constituency vote: 45(nc)% SNP 34(+2)% Lab 9(+1)% Lib 10(-4)% Con Even in 2011, the 'last minute surge' to the SNP was to all extents over at this point. All the next polls would do would is confirm it; although at this point in time then we couldn't be sure the latest polls were not a fluke so lots were getting excited on the 2011 election thread. Couldn't believe what was happening! I dare say we'll see a bit of variance in the next few, but history says, at least, that we're now set. We just need to go and vote. Get it over and done with.
  2. 2 likes
    RE the TNS poll, apparently they weight to the actual number of non-voters from the last Westminster election, which, given people's reticence to say they don't vote (especially after the referendum when a number of people who'd never voted before first became engaged), would mean that there's a proportionately high number of people who are disengaged with politics, which possibly explains the overly large number of undecideds in their samples. I heard there's a MORI one in the field at the moment so maybe this weekend or so before it's released. Also Populus, probably on behalf of Lord A, was polling in Edinburgh North and Leith, so perhaps another round or two of Ashcroft polling up here is on the way. He's already done a few in England so I'd expect a few more, perhaps a revisit of some he did earlier along with some seats not previously polled. I was out canvassing tonight in Ladybank, not one of the best villages for us in the ward - the Yes % was fairly respectable for NE Fife at the referendum at around 45% but it's always been pretty much a Lib Dem stronghold. Tonight however it was a different story - almost every door I knocked on was voting SNP, and the few who weren't either weren't interested or wouldn't say. Our overall numbers, out of nearly 150 responses, were 56% SNP, and that included DK, refused, won't vote etc. I've never seen numbers that good for a canvass sample of over 100 in NE Fife, and while we maybe did just get lucky it's still staggering to me that relatively affluent areas with no history of voting SNP up to 2011 are moving to us in such large numbers.
  3. 2 likes
  4. 1 like
    Yep, the idea of last minute changes in the polls are overstated - even in the famous case of the 1992 GE the problem was a mixture of shy tory effect and the samples being wrongly weighted to out of date demographic data which overestimated the proportion of the electorate that was working class, which meant that, had the polls been conducted using today's method, it's likely they wouldn't have shown Labour ahead at all. There are still one or two uncertainties that might lessen the blow for Labour, namely that at least 10% of people who say they're definitely voting are undecided, and that there's still a possibility that the two most recent polls are outliers (or rather YouGov is at the upper end of the margin and the TNS is an outlier/has some sort of systematic flaw) and that the real polling position is still somewhere around the 15-16% lead mark, and there are still one or two events which could potentially have some sort of impact on voting(and a few past which occured after or during the period of the most recent polls). And there's also the potential for tactical voting, which certainly wouldn't save Labour in their heartlands but could save them in affluent seats like Stirling, Edinburgh South, East Lothian etc. However, up to now, the polling position has been remarkably static other than the possible extension of the SNP lead post the UK leaders debate, and if the next lot of polling , probably another MORI with some Ashcroft polls thrown in for good measure, is anywhere between the previous baseline and the possible new one, then I wouldn't want to bet on any Scottish Labour MP, or any unionist MP other than maybe Carmichael, keeping their seat. Incidentally, a more realistic sounding canvass tonight in my own village which was just over 60% No in the referendum, not sure the overall tallies but somewhere around 30-40% of the sample voting SNP, hard to tell where the unionist vote was going as most of the people decidedly going somewhere else were refusals but definitely more opposition than last night, which felt more like SNP conference than a canvass session Overall that's pretty much bang in line with our target numbers though, so certainly not a bad session by any means, not sure I've had one of those so far this campaign other than occasionally getting a lot of folk out if door knocking through the day.
  5. 1 like
    And another. Of course more expected, but really quite something to have parties commanding ~80% of the vote on the same theme. The theme of all is nationalism. Which can be ok, if the country in question is not independent. Britain of course is independent. That's when nationalism gets worrying.
  6. 1 like
    Anything that hasn't got the word 'Election' in it
  7. 1 like
    IPSOS MORI on the long term decline of the UK Labour Party in Scotland. Aye, it's not new (as countless posts in this thread have attempted to explain), but been creeping towards conclusion since devolution. If polls pan out, May 2015 will just mark the end of the end, rather than the beginning. The beginning of the end was Tony. The pics above, the conclusion of what he began.
  8. 1 like
    Here's the running HadCrut4 rank. The first value will always rank 1 (because there's only one value to compare it to) Not quite the forever breaking records, is it? And, incidentally, there have been numerous periods where adjacent years have been the warmest in the entire series before it. What would one reasonably expect on a rising trend? All utterly unremarkable.
  9. 1 like
    Murphy lie low? I give it a couple of days before he just can't help himself.
  10. 1 like
    I see in the model thread they're worrying about a possible 'break down'. Otherwise known in Scotland as the usual.
  11. 1 like
    Whats causing the ice growth wind , fresh water , warmer waters ? Why is it 'boring' and I assume you mean 'nonsensical' If a climate model is wrong surely that's worthy of further research ? Personally i think the comment below from Dr Parkinson is a cop out. ""The fact that ice in one part of the world is doing one thing and in another part ice is doing another is not surprising" I think Dr Parkinson would be more honest if she said we don't know at present the jury is out.
  12. 1 like
    I thought I'd put up this video, about the place where I work and the project we're doing there :-)
  13. 1 like
    Update for the week to April 12th The current 5 day mean is on 14,062,200km2 while the 1 day extent is at 14,158,000km2. The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -859,810km2, a decrease from -908,920km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -311,870km2, a decrease from -349,600km2 last week. We're currently 3rd lowest on record, the same as last week. The average daily change over the last 7 days was -28.7k/day, compared to the long term average of -35.2k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -33.6k/day. The average long term change over the next week is -40.0k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -24.5k/day. The change so far this April was the 19th least negative on record. To achieve the largest monthly drop a daily loss of at least -48.3k/day is required, while the smallest drop requires less than 14.0k/day and an average drop requires 29.0k/day.
  14. 1 like
    Been a great week of Easter weather hope you where all out enjoying it, it's a shame that some people think it's great craic to set fire to dried out gorse areas, idiots.
  15. 1 like
    Sad loss, I've been listening to him for 40 years. The font of all cricket knowledge. I met him a few times at cricket dinners, a very dry sense of humour and an excellent mimic in after dinner speeches. Hope he's now enjoying a nice big chocolate cake with Johnners. Legionnaire's disease, crikey.
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