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The return of the late month northerly cold incursion on the GFS 6z: It keeps popping up doesnt it, so still an option for sure.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON TUESDAY APRIL 14TH 2015. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A warm and moist SW or West flow covers much of the UK today with a weakening cold front moving South over Scotland and Northern England tonight and tomorrow. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry, settled and occasionally warm weather across the UK. A little rain is likely at times especially later in week 2 with temperatures returning nearer to average. THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream forecast shows the main flow currently running East over the far North weakening over the coming days and then steered well away to the North of the UK for much of the remainder of the run driven by High pressure centred near the UK through much of the run period today this morning. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational this morning shows plenty of High pressure across or around the UK over the coming two weeks. The position varies from day to day with a bias of it being just to the North and NE of the UK with a cool East wind at times in the South but with very little rainfall anywhere and some warm days at times chiefly but not exclusively in the West and NW. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run is very similar in Week 1 with plenty of High pressure driven fine and sunny weather with moderate warmth in the sunshine but chilly nights. In the second week this run shows more ingress of low pressure from the West eroding the fine weather and introducing some rain and showers at times to many areas and near average temperatures. THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS clusters continue to show mixed messages in two weeks time with a mix of High pressure to the South and SW with varying degrees in the extent of influence of Atlantic Low pressure to the North or NW while a 20% or so mix indicating a much more High pressure based pattern across the UK by then. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO shows High pressure developing and intensifying across the UK towards and over the weekend with fine and sunny conditions for many under light winds, chilly nights and though days not as warm as currently in the South they will remain very respectable in the sunshine. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show the increasingly High pressure area across the UK late in the week and weekend with a weak front on it's Southern flank gradually dissolving away South taking it's warm and humid air with it and replacing it with fine and sunny weather if less warm by the weekend. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120. GEM GEM today also shows a build of High pressure but this model places it further to the north with a cool East wind across much of the UK with dry and fine weather and the best of the sunshine in the West. The run also still likes the idea of attempting to introduce colder and more unsettled conditions from the North later as pressure falls across and to the west of the UK in cold air aloft. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM shows High pressure once formed across the UK in a few days time maintained through to the end of the run with fine and settled weather for all with some warm sushine by day but with chilly Spring nights. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif. ECM ECM today is showing High pressure too with the centre well defined at the weekend gradually become less so next week in as much as by the end of next week pressure is slack and lower than earlier in the week introducing the risk of some cool and more unsettled conditions with the risk of showers increasing almost anywhere http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN(12z) The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows High pressure ensconced near or over the UK with largely fine and settled conditions most likely with any rain bearing Atlantic based weather systems weak and steered well away from the UK. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends this morning maintain High pressure well in control of the UK for most of the term of the outputs on offer today. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.6 pts followed by UKM at 97.0 pts and GFS at 96.3. At 5 days ECM continues to lead the field at 90.7 pts over UKMO at 88.9 pts and GFS at 87.1. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 67.1 pts over GFS's 61.0 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 47.4 pts over GFS at 42.4. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig MY THOUGHTS High pressure is the driving force of the model output from both sides of the Atlantic today with all output showing strong support for a UK based High pressure area developing late this week and lasting some considerable time before some longer term output explores the possibility of a decline in conditions in week 2 but none of that shown indicating any major shift away from settled weather. The current fine and very warm conditions across Southern England will be replaced by a new High on Thursday and Friday with cooler and for a time cloudier conditions perhaps with the odd shower as an old front clears South. Then through the weekend and much of next week there will be plenty of sunny days with light winds and temperatures near or somewhat above average by day but cool near East facing coasts and universally cool by night with some unwanted grass frosts at times. All areas look like staying dry with even the far NW largely fine. As I indicated earlier as we move through Week 2 the extended outputs do suggest some moderation in High pressure as Low pressure in one shape or shallow form offers the risk of cool and showery conditions becoming a possibility late in the second week but at such a range not much credence can be put on this yet. So lets all enjoy what looks likely to be a sustained fine period and though not always overly warm especially by night at least the bright Spring sunshine will be welcomed for many though I have heard locally that some Farmers and Growers could do with a drop of rain for the Spring crops down here in the south and SW. Next update from 08:00 Wednesday April 15th 2015

just as i thought cold northerly shifted further east and now high looks slap bang over us!!oh well I'm not complaining cos am loving the current conditions we are having!!long may it continue!!!!!

One of the most interesting times of the year synoptically and a fascinating trend in the NAO: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif Set to go negative and indeed strongly negative from a number of members later this month suggesting the evolution of low heights to the SW and higher heights to the North and North-West is very much on the cards. The NAO was scarcely negative all winter and this forecast would have been like manna from heaven for the coldies on here three months ago but it'snot atypical for spring/summer. http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015041406/gfsnh-0-192.png?6?6 There's your classic NAO negative chart - strong heights over Greenland and low pressure to the SW depressing the height anomaly and driving the index down. Into deepest FI and we might get a West-based Negative NAO evolution but that's a very long way off. Once again, not atypical for spring - there's often a transition to colder and less settled conditions after a brief warm spell before the warmth returns in May.

The average April min is 4C so its completely normal, who are these people who don't want cool nights anyway, most people like them.

For the coming weekend, the models seem to be coming to the consensus of building the high over the north of the UK ECM UKMO GFS GEM The GFS and GEM the furthest north which allows a chilly north easterly wind to develop in the south. ECM and UKMO look pleasant with sunny spells and light winds. In fact I wouldn't be surprised if 20C was reached in favoured locations (western Wales perhaps for example) The models are now starting to also suggest that southern counties might get an extra warm day, the GFS going for 22C in the south now. ECM still showing the 8C isotherm over southern Britain even by Friday morning, so that would back that up to some extent. The slight risk of heavy showers/Thunderstorms also extends into Thursday as well.

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean shows a fantastic outlook with the new UK based high pressure sat on top of the UK which would bring a good deal of warm and sunny weather to all parts of the UK but with cold nights under clear skies, it's great to see the high adjusted further east compared to recently.

A brief look at the latest EC32 update. The 23rd has a ridge west of Ireland to Greenland; LP NW Atlantic and trough orientated south Scandinavia/NE Europe. Thus HP west of Ireland giving a N airstream and around average temps. By the 30th the ridge has gone with weak HP Pole and Greenland but a general area of LP NW of the UK through Scandinavia into eastern Europe. Giving a Pm NW airstream and below average temps with the HP pushed south. The 7th May gives a very similar picture with perhaps the Azores HP pushing slightly further north and the winds backing to W/SW but still temps below average. By the 15th signs of a general pressure rise in the eastern Atlantic and Scandinavia with the Azores HP ridging from the SW but temps still below average. Summary After the end of the current period of fine weather (apart from the north) it looks like being quite unsettled for a couple of weeks before settling down again with temps below average.

Convectiveweather issued an ISOL for Home Counties for tomo: http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2015-04-15

The Gfs 6z shows a risk of isolated thunderstorms tomorrow evening across parts of southern britain as the curtain comes down on the very warm spell in the south but then we see a new anticyclone building in over the UK from Friday and intensifying during the weekend into early next week with lots of strong sunshine and light winds with temperatures recovering again after a cooler blip, rising into the 60's F so a very pleasant spell nationwide but with chilly nights under clear skies, then later next week as our high drifts away NW (classic retrogression) we have an Arctic maritime incursion with snow in the north and sharper night frosts for a time.

Lovely sunny start here, it should be a beautiful day temperatures We should reach the low twenties, and hopefully we should beat the current highest Maxima of 22C. Tomorrow looking even better 21-25C, doesn't get much better for mid-April. There are signs that the warmth could persist into Thursday as well now, especially for southern counties.

Putting aside for one moment the nonsense terminology I see on reason whatsoever why I ( I obviously cannot speak for anyone else) should should accept opinions such as this: To dismiss the opinion of a senior scientist at NASA as garbage, without a hint of any scientific justification, is not only ignorant but, dare I say it, breath-takingly arrogant.

The other thread was starting to get a wee too big, so have let loose a new thread for you guys and ladies to chat about the weather in Scotland. Continue your discussions here. Looks as though there will be some mixed weather for you guys for this upcoming week. Periods of cool, windy, wet, showery weather, especially towards Western Scotland, with some brighter, drier interludes at times, most particularly towards the end of the week, where High Pressure looks to become more in control. While perhaps nothing exceptionally mild, could still feel Spring-like in any sunnier spells: Looking at some of the previous replies, though, and there is certainly possibilities that much cooler or colder weather could then develop for the week after. The NOAA 8 to 14 day and ECMWF/GFS 8 to 10 day 500mb anomaly charts show varied solutions ranging from chilly cyclonic conditions developing between the West and North (NOAA chart) to more anti-cyclonic High Pressure dominated conditions (ECMWF/GFS chart). I suppose for those of you in Scotland wanting to see further wintry and snawy weather you'd have to hope the NOAA anomaly chart has got the right handle on this. The bump in the 500mb flow contour line (green) and the lower than average heights to the North-East of Scotland (blue dashed lines) on that chart suggests areas of Low Pressure dropping down just to the East of the UK which could bring some wintry weather down towards Scotland on the Western flanks of Lows. Particularly for the Highlands. I think as one or two people mentioned in the model thread, to see a much colder shot develop from the North-West or North will likely depend on whether the UK High Pressure later this week can retrogress far enough West in the Atlantic (in response to possible troughs dropping to our East) to allow some cold, cyclonic, wintry conditions to develop to the North. At least for some of you in here who enjoy snawy weather will still generally have a better chance than here down South. Which ever way you look at it, I guess, there should be something there in the next week or two for a fair number of Scotland weather fans to enjoy (especially if a cold spell from the North-West/North does develop).

Seeing as we are only just over 3 weeks away now, some Storm Porn and a little help from you chasers and followers to see what you think is the best Storm out of these 20 Supercells from the 2012-2014 Seasons. We really have seen some of Planet Earths Best Supercells over the past 3 years, I still have Seasons 2005-2011 which Include some Stunners as 2010 was known as the Structure Year but they will have to be for another day! I will give 5 Points for your 1st Option, 3 Points for your 2nd Option and 1 Point for your 3rd Option. Then we can crown the Ultimate Supercell as well as getting you ready to drool over Storms like these which we might be witnessing in a few weeks time! 1. Wessington Springs HP Supercell (South Dakota) 18th June 2014 2. Coleridge Classic Supercell (Nebraska) 17th June 2014 3. Pilger Classic Supercell (Nebraska) 16th June 2014 4. Roswell Classic Supercell (New Mexico) 06th June 2014 5. Scottsbluff Classic Supercell (Nebraska) 19th May 2014 6. Climax Classic Supercell (Kansas) 10th May 2014 7. Henrietta Classic Supercell (Texas) 08th May 2014 8. Broken Bow LP Supercell (Nebraska) 26th May 2013 9. West Point Classic Supercell (Nebraska) 14th June 2013 10. El Reno HP Supercell (Oklahoma) 31st May 2013 11. Ballinger LP Supercell (Texas) 09th May 2013 12. Seymour HP Supercell (Texas) 30th May 2012 13. Ogallalla LP Supercell (Nebraska) 22nd June 2012 14. Limon HP Supercell (Colorado) 07th June 2012 15. Dover Classic Supercell (Oklahoma) 29th May 2012 16. Adrian LP Supercell (Texas) 22nd May 2012 17. Campo Classic Supercell (Colorado) 31st May 2010 18. Clinton LP Supercell (Oklahoma) 19th May 2012 19. Roswell HP Supercell (New Mexico) 13th May 2012 20. Cooperton HP Supercell (Oklahoma) 13th April 2012 Hope a Lot of you can get involved and we can crown a champion before I depart on the 6th May Regards Paul S

http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2015/04/britains-fish-n-chip-favourites-could-dwindle-as-north-sea-warms/?utm_source=Daily+Carbon+Briefing&utm_campaign=625e53d864-cb_daily&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_876aab4fd7-625e53d864-303447709

Actually felt a little chilly upon my visit to Norwich and then back in Corton at the holiday place said there was a max of 18c so I guess we're not as warm as Kent Essex and london are

Ian If that's the Holiday Inn on the DIA Complex then no problems at all, will be able to pick you up from there if we are in a different hotel, DIA Airport is amazing for getting around unlike DFW

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/apr/08/north-sea-cod-stocks-bounce-back-analysis-shows The Guardain must not have got the memo and runs a story about rising numbers in the face of the 'warm' water doom.

It's a typical stupid AGW tale of woe, they'd just gradually move a bit further north. But the propaganda article tries to imply they'd be too stupid and die out or par-boil in situ if the sea eventually warmed 0.5C.

Very warm here in Saint Malo today, reached 27-28c Will keep you guys posted if any storms form over the next 48 hours.

The GFS 06z operational was the coldest member bar one for the 7-10 day range, would be interesting to come off given that snow would be produced in any showers that do develop. The ens are not really giving much goo guidance at the moment, it does look like heights will retrogress to our north west, but a murky picture remains around the UK with distinct low heights to our north east and south west. At this moment it leaves 3 distinct possibilities. 1) The trough to the north east dominates bringing cooler weather and some rain or showers at times. 2) The high remains to some degree over the UK, keeping conditions dry and fairly mild. 3) The low to our south west becomes more dominant with a ridge still present just to our east, this being a warm and humid solution. Ultimately though the end game does seem to be a slow slip into more unsettled conditions by the end of the month, this expressed by the increased precipitation spikes later on in week 2.

BOM now joined CPC http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/archive/ensowrap_20150414.pdf

1 = Roswell Classic Supercell (New Mexico) 06th June 2014 2 = West Point Classic Supercell (Nebraska) 14th June 2013 3 = Broken Bow LP Supercell (Nebraska) 26th May 2013

This Corpus Christi livecam is amazing right now... Strobe Lightning crazy rain and mad windy! Sound too! http://www.cctexas.com/customer-service-center/bayfront-webcam/index

The minimum today is 6.9C while maxima look like climbing into the low 18s, so an increase to 9.4C is likely on tomorrows update. After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at: 9.7C to the 15th (14.1) 9.8C to the 16th (11.3) 9.8C to the 17th (8. 9.7C to the 18th (8.5) 9.6C to the 19th (8.6) 9.6C to the 20th (9.7) 9.7C to the 21st (10.4) 9.7C to the 22nd (10.1) 9.6C to the 23rd (6.5) Below is a graph showing (provided we are on 9.7C to the 18th) how the CET would pan out according to the final 12 days of every other year in the CET record. The maximum we would reach, should we follow 1740, 2006 or 2010, is 10.7C. The lowest, should we follow 1808, is 7.1C. The 95th percentile in red (to finish is the warmest 5%) is 10.3C, while the 5th percentile in blue (coldest 5%) would leave us around 8.2C. That 8.2C to 10.3C can be seen as the likely finishing range before corrections, with something truly exceptional required to take the CET outside of that range.

Aye Mardatha! the Bassas. The Auld annual North/South Divide eh. Big Innes

12/13 degree max here today - 23 in London.. WTF?

9.2c to the 13th 2.4c above the 61 to 90 average 1.6c above the 81 to 10 average

1. Scottsbluff 2. Broken Bow 3. Campo Although I prefer my Campo image.. https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/21097-campo-supercell/

1st Broken Bow No 8. So unique! 2nd Pilger No 3. Amazing tornado pic. 3rd Roswell No 19. Will never forget that mothership barreling towards us!

1. Broken Bow 2. Climax 3. Scottsbluff Quite tough actually to chose those 3! The Limon and Seymour ones were absolute beasts! I remember us getting chased quite hard by that Seymour one lol!

The weekend and much of next week is shaping up to be anticyclonic with long sunny spells and light winds, cold nights where skies are clear. It's turning into a very good spring away from the northwest but the good news is that we are in for a nationwide settled spell so areas which are / have been cold and unsettled will soon be enjoying pleasantly warm sunny conditions, the ukmo 0z looks great for the weekend and into next week.

your posts are great agree with all, but yeah we do not want a northerly now, unless you're over 300m asl, good its shifted east

I love No7 it looks like gods doing some hoovering

Can't get away from it, Climax is my #1 - she was a beaut and I have about 5000 pictures from that afternoon! #2 Ballinger - first supercell I ever saw, so has a special place! #3 Scotsbluff - one mothership lining up behind another, a total pancake fest! - was also the final chase day so was good to go out with a bang!

1 - Broken Bow (obviously)! 2 - Limon HP 3 - Campo cone!

the unsettled cold from the north as was touted a few days ago has evaporated (always a possibility) with an upper trough nearer the south of the uk looking more of an option. However, this is also very speculative at the moment. certainly more potential for a drift away from the higher heights we've become used to recently but how unsettled and how cold??

Evening Folks ! Is any one awake :rofl: High pressure rules the roost, after a few toasty days both ecm and gfs show a big cool down.....

19. Imagine if the road you were driving led to that....

ECM 12z - Instead of colder air coming down from the north, the high actually brings relatively warm air. However as it has to cross the North Sea first to reach us it will be the SW that sees the best of the temperatures.

Evening virtual chasers Some signals for a discrete supercell or two in the notch below the trailing front across C Texas this evening. Sufficient pockets of instability in 21C dps could do the trick and directional shear in abundance. I'm doing some preliminary prep for a potential chase mid-May if an active set-up develops. Excited isn't the word!

Number 8 Broken Bow, Nebraska, the High Plains rarely deliver poor structures and to capture the lightning spouting from the upper layers is pure magic. Number 11 Ballinger, Texas. Not much beats a low precipitation supercell. Number 17 Campo, Colorado. A beautiful looking 'stove-pipe' tornado.

Ah so hard to choose!!! Number 8 - Broken bow, Nebraska ( trying to disregard the bolt as that would look awesome in any storm ! lol ) Number 2 - Coleridge Nebraska Number 7 - Henrietta Texas Runner up no 13, having been there and having my shot of that up on my wall i see it everday. Probably would've been my 3rd choice otherwise

Well my first choice would be num 4 - Roswell classic supercell Second choice would be num 8 - Broken Bow classic supercell Third choice would be num 12 - Seymour HP supercell

Yes July was pretty good overall. June was okay. But that's the least you should expect for the warmest year on record. 2013 was easily a better summer for me. Spring 2014 was bland and nobody is convincing me otherwise. You said it yourself - a near total lack of cold weather rather than an abundance of hot weather. And yes 2011 was also a poor year.

Was very sunny this morning, Now pretty cloudy with a strong breeze. I envy England so much reaching the low-twenties!!

Same here. Both of the storms, I feel, have their own interesting characteristics. I enjoy snowstorms for the heavy wintry precipitation they produce, and enjoy thunderstorms for their dazzling lightning and rumbly thunder displays. But like you, having both the storms happening together would provide the storm of my dreams. Especially if the storm started as torrential hail, and then there was a sudden temperature drop with dense 50p sized snowflakes creating whiteout conditions. This would last for several hours with the snowflakes getting up to the size of a Penguin (the chocolate bar this is) before clearing to much clearer skies. My least favourite would be the Atlantic windstorms. Personally, for me, they just don't compare to the visual qualities of snow/hail/lightning storms.