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Hi folks. Just a quick post script from me with regard to my daily reports. I am much like yourselves that there is little of substance to talk about currently now that the Winter posters have largely gone into hibernation for the next 7 months or so and being as my days are taken up largely away from my pc and the fact that I don't like communicating via mobile particularly. I apologize for not responding to your kind words of support re the daily summaries I provide. They are a little time consuming first thing in the morning's but I hope they give the less knowledgeable that read them an insight on what weather to expect over the coming weeks and if all you folks are up for it I hope to continue them on ad infinitum. They are of course part of my own websites output daily where can be found much more information about the weather principally for my own home patch principally but also give lots of live data feeds and other informative things weather related. I visit this forum several times a day morning and evening and do read all your posts and find them very interesting and informative, especially from the likes of Gavin and James whose knowledge and input are highly commendable. I may not (outside of my reports) place much input into the thread but I do appreciate all the kind comments that you give me and hope that you all continue to enjoy reading them.

Once the low pulls away it could become more settled and warmer for a time in the south at first then further north if this GFS run is correct As Easter gets nearer the weather changes...... with colder air and snow sweeping down from the north Easter Sunday snow anyone?

And so are the countless charts shown in the model forum over the last two weeks suggesting 20C temperatures and the Azores high being slap bang over us are just around the corner. We hit the dizzy heights of 17.5C earlier in the month and it has literally been downhill since then, in terms of temperatures. The reliable has granted us typical March weather really, with arctic blasts just as much in FI as a taste of summer.

The GFS 12z shows substantially warmer conditions across southern parts at the weekend. Temps up to the mid teens in brisk moist westerlies. Bright or sunny spells may be at a premium but in any sunshine it could feel quite warm.

6z turns into a fantastic run for the south with high pressure building in close to the south with winds from the Azores coming around the top of the high and into the south of the UK. Temperatures rise into the mid teens Celsius and eventually as high as 18c 64f, most of the unsettled weather is further north. In the meantime, tomorrow will be a day of sunshine and showers, some heavy with hail and thunder, midweek looks more settled but a band of rain spreads from the west on Thursday with snow on northern hills and then Friday turns wet and windy from the west but from Saturday onwards it's a north/south split with the south turning drier, warmer and brighter.

Brilliant weather forum ,and thanks to all regular posters who share their knowledge ,usually on certain aspects of a very complex subject . Yes probably many jumping ship but i,m sure many just lurk ,charts today showing some action weather and a promise for some of possibly some good outdoor weather in the further outlook ,off for a bit of digging ,cheers all

Fine day with just a few light showers and some sunny periods with stunning blue skies.Got colder all day with a shower just just before dusk giving a dusting to the tops of the Cawdor hills at about 1500 feet. Currently 2c with a ground frost.

Its not very often ,if anytime Ive quoted my own post, but the Gfs has been outstanding and put the goal in the net a week ago as regards tomorrows weather....Heres the proof....We can often slag this model off, but today as been awarded the Pickerings Badge Of Honour!!!! Compare the two... Quite Remarkable.....

ECM is reverting back to what it was showing for a couple of runs at the end of last week with high pressure and warmer air influencing the south more temperatures could get towards 20c in some spots whilst the outlook further north remains unsettled as March draws to a close

Temperatures up to 16C in places by Sunday, it would be a welcome change that must be said. Milder still on Monday through to Wednesday. No point trying to determine the cloud amounts as earlier this month cloudy skies were predicted, the reality on the day was clear blue skies and temperatures up to 17C. UKMO has pretty much the same chart at day 6, so something to build on if milder weather if what you fancy. GEM similar

Good news for those looking for an increasingly mild and settled outlook, the GEFS 06z mean shows high pressure gradually building in from the southwest by early April with very pleasant conditions.

Morning all The 06Z GFS Operational output once again tries to build in the Azores HP manfully but success is partial at best and there would be plenty of cloud and moisture in that mild airstream so those claiming 18c might need to rethink their predictions. The story for me remains the persistence of the PV which keeps the jet strong enough to prevent a strong Azores ridge and persistently flattens it into Europe. Indeed into low-res, the jet seems to come further south so Easter might yet be quite unsettled. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index.html The AO went back positive yesterday after about a week of being negative. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif The forecast only adds to my general confusion - an initial period of modest positivity and then almost anything from strong positive to strong negative is on the table up to and through the end of the month. This suggests the Easter and post-Easter period are far from settled yet. http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=264 Looking out to Good Friday on the 06Z ensembles and there seem to be plenty of options. Most have some form of HP nearby but the question is to whether it's to the SW or over the UK which would provide the conditions many on here seem to want or the possibility of the HP lying further west or even NW allowing the Scandinavian trough and a more NW';ly or even N'ly airflow. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif The NAO remains positive though perhaps trending back to neutrality later. This suggests to me the Azores HP will be close to the country (leading to a positive anomaly based on the April 1st measurements) though perhaps receding into the latter stage of the forecast.

6.2c to the 22nd 0.9c above the 61 to 90 average 0.1c below 81 to 10 average

As per more often than not this brief cold spell is being modified as we near the reliable and the S/SE have had their temps corrected upwards as the upper temps are not as cold as forecast a few days ago: Today's cold front as expected will just bring patchy rain and cloud as it reaches the east: Following on will be showers, very hit and miss. The front(s) Wed-Thur are slow moving affairs and look likely again to do their worse in the west of the UK with possibly a wintry mix, especially on higher ground in the colder upper air: T63 T72: GFS have now corrected where Friday's Low passes and as I thought it misses the UK and is north of Scotland, with the GFS coming more in line with the GEM & ECM idea of the more northerly placement of the jet: That correction makes a big difference to total rainfall up to the 29th compared to yesterdays outlier 0z: Today: Yesterday The relatively dry run looks like continuing till the end of March. ECM over amping the Atlantic ridge on D10 this morning and I suspect that is its bias at work. The GFS op may be nearer the mark: But maybe a repeat of the next few days colder flow? No real development from the GEFS in FI and the best bet is a continuation of this pattern into April with the N/S split at times bringing milder interludes to the south and colder ones to the north: D12 & D16 mean: The MJO going into its seasonal lull? Looks like another CET higher than average, anomaly March currently +0.9c, though compared to last year, where also the first quarter had all months above average, this year the positive anomaly is a lot lower; 2014 monthly average (jan-Mar) +2.1c, currently +0.5c.

There may be slightly more to it than this with features such as Frozen-in Anticyclones (FrIACs) which originate at lower latitudes and become 'stuck' over the polar region with the natural anticyclonic tendency during summer, and the displaced remnant winter vortex fragments persisting further south. These features have been studied with effects on ozone in particular and the signature of FrIACs can sometimes be seen to persist throughout the summer. Effects on the troposphere are not so clear and appear little researched though there are a number of papers which examine the tropospheric effects of the timing and nature of the final warming itself. In the northern hemisphere this has largely been viewed as springtime effects, for example of Arctic geopotential rise (which theoretically could have an impact on early ice melt pool formation which has been suggested as a critical factor in overall summer ice melt) and changes to storm tracks such as in the Atlantic-Europe area. In the southern hemisphere a general latening of final warmings since the 1960s, with possible links to ozone depletion, have been associated with longer term climatological changes in Antarctic circulation which may play a part in recent high sea ice extents.

I took quite a few photos of the eclipse through the cloud yesterday but this one felt especially Aberdonian thanks to the seagull.

Could be quite a bit of hail around the region tomorrow and the odd rumble of thunder,more especially in the afternoon.

This is a very nice chart from the peak of the warmer incursion next week on this evenings Ecm 12z. I think a Very mild / warm spell is on the way for the south and 21c 70f is a distinct possibility during the first half of next week.

A chilly few days coming up and maybe a bit of wintry ness in the showers but compared to what we were in the middle of two years ago, i'd imagine nothing to get even remotely excited about.

More like summer than early spring with a few spots close to the magic 70F for a time next week on Gfs 12z. Looking good at the end of the run too. I'm looking for very pleasant weather now and that looks like happening soon for southern UK at least.

What is it with the GFS, struggles all winter, then on its latest run It goes and delivers a white Easter, with a potent northerly blast Not unusual in any sense, for me though I would personally like To be tidying up the garden, instead of been stuck in doors with The fire on.

Exceptional twentieth-century slowdown in Atlantic Ocean over turning circulation http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2554.epdf?referrer_access_token=MVxvuUT8GEjHovuxDcIVDdRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0NAhBvJD3qQKAFJ5ZYnRB2DfVKqstvbeSrKxpKUhj2SxF7BcI_loegLGlYCV27ok_Njli4FpCNFd520NkNH-gNy_R7BHOTlk8WVlOM-EydqJ_fXB_3x-E3hIshOeW5WWHqcaPgYVH6Ha2paJACMrQS0vL1bzMOuRrJUW7F2fIb6zTOfarfleGahqDJs4nRADLaiLU5g6rQIKxir0Igbm9o6CWHumkVB6-NveR4QQcF04yFUDA2eESQkZFHTbg4BEjKBHXhfaqQGs3pynjaPS2xr3OFrcGgtAslw6mlPCY2pJBOlEUK_YsjENr2KkPIeQBQ7FzzPlGXxNcMiC-v59Pxv&tracking_referrer=www.washingtonpost.com Discussed here http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2015/03/whats-going-on-in-the-north-atlantic/

As the run continues it stays fine and pleasantly mild for the southern half of the UK. Becoming warmer still.

Reminds me of April 2008 it's certainly different to last year white easter that would make a change although there would be a good deal of uncertainty as this whole winter has been knife edge stuff. But certainly not impossible although from frosty post of 18c to snow on easter Sunday could well be a mixed bag which is not unusual during spring.

The images I took with my Samsung Bridge camera using coloured cellophane are in the Gallery. https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/album/1668-eclipse-in-cellaphane/

There There is an easy to read explanation of the MJO here. http://wwa.colorado.edu/climate/iwcs/archive/IWCS_2008_May_focus.pdf

Minimum today is 5.3C while maxima look like reaching the low 10s, so an increase to 6.3C is likely on tomorrows update. After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at: 6.2C to the 24th (5.2) 6.2C to the 25th (4.7) 6.2C to the 26th (5.5) 6.1C to the 27th (5.9) 6.2C to the 28th (7.2) 6.3C to the 29th (9.4) 6.5C to the 30th (11.0) 6.6C to the 31st (12.1) A very mild final 3 days has a big impact on the overall CET. Whether that comes off or not remains to be seen. I'd put the likely range before corrections at 6.1C to 6.8C, so 5.6C to 6.8C after.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON MONDAY MARCH 23RD 2015. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A trough of Low pressure is moving SE across NW areas moving SE through today and tonight followed by a showery and cold NW flow tomorrow. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable weather across the UK. The South will see some good drier spells later. It will be chilly this week but milder conditions for all are expected for much of next week. THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream is currently flowing South over the UK on the Eastern flank of the main West to East flow across the Atlantic. The flow simplifies and strengthens from later this week with a strong West to East flow across the UK expected from the end of the week through the remainder of the period. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational this morning shows a very changeable pattern developing over the upcoming period as a stronger Westerly flow across the Atlantic extends across the UK with Low pressure to the North and High to the South. As a result this weeks chilly and changeable period looks like being replaced by equally changeable conditions but under stronger and milder Westerly winds rain at times chiefly but not exclusively in the North in Week 2. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run is more in favour of High pressure to the South being more influential across the South of the UK next week with the stronger Westerly flow in the North restricting the worst of the wind and rain to Northern areas with milder Westerly conditions for all and fairly extended dry and occasionally bright weather across the South. THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS clusters all support High pressure to the SW of the UK two weeks from now but with differing opinions in proximity and extent to it's influence across the UK. 60% hold it close to the South or SW with fine weather likely across the South with rain at times for the North while 40% show it far enough to the SW to bring a broad NW flow across the UK with rain and showers a risk for all in blustery and perhaps chilly winds. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO UKMO today shows a milder Westerly flow strengthening and developing across the UK by or over the weekend replacing the rather chilly and unsettled weather with rain and showers at times expected through the working days of this week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a complex weather pattern later this week as the cold and showery conditions tomorrow get injected by a trough moving into it from the West on Thursday with a cold wet day likely on Thursday, repeated again on Friday as a rapidly deepening depression moves NE just to the NW of the UK with strong winds accompanying the rain then. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120. GEM GEM this morning shows a typical early Spring Westerly flow developing across the UK in the second week with fresh to strong Westerly winds with rain at times for all in temperatures close to average, all this replacing the rather cold and changeable theme to the weather between now and the weekend. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows a stronger Westerly flow developing from the end of the week as milder air brings rain at times especially to the North and West with a few more showery spells to the far North. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif. ECM ECM completes the set with milder Atlantic Westerlies at the weekend, strong for many delivering some rain at times, chiefly over the North and West. the UK is shown to be chilly and changeable up until this point and by the end of the run a cold NW or Northerly phase brings another spell of showery weather down over all areas as pressure builds North over the Atlantic. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart disagrees with it's operational maintaining a mild Westerly flow across the UK made up of varying options a few of which do show a colder NW'ly but many more keeping High pressure close to the South and consequent dry weather under Westerly winds while the North maintains cloud and some rain on a more regular basis. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models show little overall change in trend to those shown over recent runs. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.8 pts followed by UKM at 97.4 pts and GFS at 96.6. At 5 days ECM continues to lead the field at 91.2 pts over UKMO at 89.6 pts and GFS at 87.9. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 67.4 pts over GFS's 62.5 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 49.1 pts over GFS at 45.1. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig MY THOUGHTS The output this morning remains typically Springlike with a chilly and unsettled period this week with rain at times especially later in the week following the cold and showery phase tomorrow. We then switch to stronger and mild Westerly winds over the weekend and next week but still with some rain at times. The most unsettled weather from the weekend looks like being experienced across the North and West while Southern and Eastern Britain see some decent dry periods when in any brightness temperatures could respond to above average levels at times though probably accompanied by large cloud amounts and a noticeable breeze. The whole Winter season just passed has been governed by the behaviour of the Azores High pressure down to the SW and as we move through the start of Spring this remains the dominant force spreading it's influence NE at times and this is again shown later from some output allowing the unsettled and windy weather to recede Northwards again. Still at least there is nothing particularly harsh in weather terms shown within this morning's output with typical Spring changeable weather for all looking likely and some reasonably benign and dry weather spells likely at times too especially in the South with the UK as a whole maintaining temperatures close to average or a little above at times and perhaps just below in the far North on brief occasions as polar maritime incursions push through at times. Issued at 08:00 Monday March 23rd 2015

Thanks NSW for an interesting post.

Found these online of a thunder storm and slow motion lightning. https://youtu.be/g_TOuOAmJ3Q https://youtu.be/VVxHNxayYZE https://youtu.be/dj8zqk61gkU - Eclipse.

Yeah, twas a very nice spell of weather. Felt warmer than 12 or 13C in the sun, but it was the consistent blue skies that made the difference.

Just 7 days away we have this on the Gfs 12z, winds from the Azores and temperatures in the 13-15c range which would be very pleasant, a taste of things to come during easter hopefully.

i tried looking at the eclipse through a colander ended up straining my eyes...

Storm activity returned to the region after a fairly settled first week of March. On the 8th, storms were mostly isolated affecting areas nearer to the ranges and around Coffs Harbour. Heavy rainfall accompanied the storms with 50.2mm falling in an hour at Coffs Harbour and 50mm in 30 minutes at Woolgoolga. A storm warning wasn't issued until after the storms had affected these areas... More storms generally forming in the same area on the 9th brought more heavy rain falling at similar intensities to the day before and a wind gust of 113km/h occurring at Grafton Airport. Storms were more widespread affecting other parts of the north coast, including here during the 13th. Coffs Harbour experienced a severe storm again. Yet again it caught the Bureau unaware as there was no storm warning issued before it came. 46.6mm fell in 30 minutes with rain continuing afterwards over already saturated ground from the wet summer (549.4mm fell in February alone). The 183.4mm fall made it the wettest March day since 1974. The storms brought flash flooding to Coffs Harbour - (Source of both pics: Higgins Storm Chasing - Facebook) (Source of both pics: NBN News - Twitter) Yesterday (the 21st), parts of inland northern NSW and inland southern QLD were affected by very severe storms that brought hail up to 12cm in diameter. Chinchilla (QLD) and eastern parts of Narrabri (NSW) were the worst affected towns. The severe thunderstorm warning issued did warn that the storms could become supercelluar, and supercells definitely developed: "Thunderstorm development in the warning area is expected to be rapid this afternoon with some thunderstorms quickly becoming severe once the storm starts. Supercell thunderstorms are considered a real possibility." Hailstone that fell near Narrabri - (Source: Narrabri Shire Weather Station Network - Facebook) (Source: The Courier Narrbari - Facebook) Hailstone at Chinchilla - (Source of both pics: Chinchilla Community Forum - Facebook) The small town of Bingara was also affected by severe hailstorms - (Source: Tamworth & Region Weather - Facebook) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PoQ3oHkk1uE A couple of other videos of the severe hailstorms - https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=853692378035426 https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=10152753910632844 https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=10152837033669389 http://www.thechronicle.com.au/news/video-huge-hail-stones-smash-chinchillas-bulldog-p/2582071/ Last night, heavy rain and thunderstorms brought falls of up to 178mm about the southern parts of the North Coast causing localised flash flooding. Lake Cathie, a small town about 10 minutes south of Port Macquarie, had 123mm in two hours (51mm falling in the first hour, followed by 72mm falling in the next hour). The heavier stuff (50-100mm+) was to the south, missing here by about 30kms.

In short no. Once the final warming is out of the way, the polar stratosphere is very stable during the summer months with weak easterlies maintained until late August. Contrast this with the tropospheric polar vortex which stays (mean) westerly all year around with the lowest mean westerly winds at 150hPa experienced during June and July.

Advice from someone who has spent the last 15 years having skin cancer ops, fortunately so far not of the life threatening variety. Take care and wear a hat when outside, use high factor skin cream and DO NOT use sun beds no matter what anyone tells you differently.